Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market analysis. We will talk about Bitcoin trading and especially psychology because I see quite a few mistakes being made right now by quite a few people. So maybe you are one of those people, in any case, with the advice I'm going to give you, if you are, it will greatly help you. Then we will of course talk about Ethereum, we will talk about some altcoins that are performing rather well, notably Solana and Hyperliquid. And we will finish with three altcoins that I will ask you to analyze. I have noted YGG, CAS, and Z. And I invite you right now to put in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze. I will include them in my list and in the coming days, well, I will analyze them.
So, BTC, we have a rather interesting day here, a small pump. Now, what I observe, if I zoom in on 4 hours, we are still in a bearish dynamic. We are trying to form a bottom and that's not bad because we had this accumulation phase, a pump, a retracement. We retest this accumulation phase and then we do a second pump. So it would be good to validate this large structure which would lead us to a change in dynamic because we can clearly see that for a while now, the highs and lows have been getting lower and lower. We are in a medium-term bearish dynamic. If I put moving averages, we can clearly see that the 1-hour acts as resistance and the 4-hour also. So, a good signal for a recovery. I have always said that the long term is bullish, we are still in the daily tunnel and as long as we maintain 106 and uh 98,000 dollars, we are still in a long-term bullish dynamic. However, in the medium term, we could return to a bullish dynamic. If we start to go back above this level, we would have an inversion of our dynamic with higher lows and higher highs, and we would have a good chance of exiting this sideways phase and retesting the next resistances. Okay? So it's a big signal to wait for, but at least it's a confirmation that we have put in a bottom. For the moment, we are still in a bearish dynamic and we are in a phase where people, traders, are starting to get impatient. I see it on Twitter, I see it on Discord. We are in a phase where nothing much is happening, it's slow, and these are generally the most complicated phases. Where often doing nothing is the best solution. That's where you will avoid making many mistakes, and most people here are in a phase where they are trying to, frankly, predict too much what will happen. There are a lot of false moves on small time units. There are strategy changes. I see that. They are trying to find a small remedy that will allow them to trade, to make profits in a market like this which is more complicated. And the problem is they are venturing into unknown territory, and that's where they make big mistakes. And the problem is that often when a market is more difficult to trade or is in a phase where nothing much is happening, it's a bit slow like this, sometimes the best thing is to do nothing. And if you are overtrading, always looking for opportunities, that's where you make big mistakes. And that's where, well, your emotions take over and you don't respect your plan. What you need to tell yourself is that when you trade, you see it a bit like a scale. You see? Hop, there's a big string like this. My scale is badly made. Hop, there's a big string like this. Okay? And at the end, there's a weight that will be constantly varying. Okay? From one side to another. Okay? On two sides like this. And on one side, we will have fear, and on the other side, we will have euphoria. Okay? And we have a scale like this that will alternate between fear, euphoria, fear, euphoria. Okay? And trading is always like that. Okay? Either you are afraid, or you are euphoric. And it swings like this. Bull market, everything pumps, euphoric. Then it calms down. Fear phase. Sometimes there are phases where we are in the middle. Okay, we are between the two. And the more you are a beginner, the bigger the string of this swing, of this back and forth. Okay. The more you are a beginner, the bigger it is. And the bigger it is, what does that mean? The bigger the movements will be. In other words, the more you will be afraid and the more you will be euphoric. And these are the two biggest emotions in trading that will cause a lot of mistakes. False moves, revenge trading, poor risk management, loss of capital. Enormous consequences. And what you need to know is the more you trade, the more experience you gain, and the shorter this string will become. It will be smaller and smaller. And if I take my case, there are always phases where I am afraid, always phases where I am euphoric. The difference is that my string, the movements are very small, and I manage to realize it, it won't have as big an impact as a beginner on their emotions and therefore on the decisions they will make. Because the decisions they make are based on their interpretation of the information. And when they interpret information, it will depend on their emotional state and their emotions. And the less experience you have, the bigger this scale is, and the more mistakes you make. And in this kind of phase, it's even more pronounced. Okay? Because there's the frustrating side, nothing much is happening. People who entered maybe 1 month, 2 months ago, well, they might be at a loss, they don't understand why. Maybe some, with what happened on October 10th, were very scared, and then it started again, while they sold at the top. So now they are in revenge trading mode. We are in a phase where there are a lot of mistakes. And if you want to avoid making these mistakes, you need a plan, you need a strategy, you need to have confidence in your setup, in what you trade, and that is paramount. And if you don't do that, you won't last in the long term, I'm telling you. And this scale that I just showed you works in many things in life. Besides, it's something you need to realize, and the more experience you have, the more skills you have, okay? And the more capable you will be of managing this scale better. This scale applies to many things. Professional athletes in football, basketball, whatever, when they have to take a penalty, when they have to take a free throw in the last minute, they swing between fear and euphoria. It's a fact. Okay? And the more experience you have, the better you will be able to handle this and simply make better decisions. Why? Because your emotions will be much more interesting. So, that's what I think about the market right now and especially about the mistakes many are making. And anyway, we are at a turning point, I think October, November, things will move. Logically, tomorrow we have economic announcements that are coming out. We still have a shutdown in the United States. Logically, we are supposed to have inflation and the CPI this Friday. So, I think it can create volatility. Why? Because it's been a long time since we've had news. Then we have Jerome Powell's next decision in 6 days. Next decision, next Fed decision and Jerome Powell's speech. So I think, well, we are all expecting a rate cut, at least that's what is expected, that's what is priced in at 98.9% that we will have a rate cut on the 29th. However, what will be crucial is Powell's speech. In addition, we have the shutdown, etc. So I think it will create a lot of volatility. Especially in crypto, October, November is always a decisive moment where often either we put in a top, or it pumps. And we can see it, I shared all of that on Discord earlier. If I try to look at seasonality, I'll put myself here in 2019. This allows us to see, quite simply, over the last few years, in previous years, it's an index that shows us the evolution in percentage. And we see that, well, currently, we are in 2025, we are at +15%. It's been worse, even if I include 2018, there you go, it's been worse. 2018 and 2022 are indeed very bad years for BTC. 2020 was certainly much better, but well, we see that we are reducing volatility, the movements are much less significant, but especially October, November, it's often either a top or a pump. We see if I look at the green curve, the yellow curve here, or even the orange curve, well, these are pumps that happen. October has always been an interesting month. And when I look at the others, the 2019 curve, the 2021 curve, that's where we put in tops. Okay, well, we see clearly, we have a decrease, then 2022, 2018, it's the continuation of the top that was put in. So, well, in general, be careful, here, as I said, we are in phases where the market, I think, we will have a resolution perhaps for mid to late November, in any case, we will have a better market direction, in my opinion. In addition, with the different rate cuts coming, Powell's speech, all of that will create volatility. So that's where you need to be ready. For me, we are in a phase where the market is calming down. We have had quite a bit of volatility, mind you, in just a few weeks. If we look at September, it's +14%, 15% followed by a big drop of -18% in a few weeks. So we have volatility. The problem is that we have significant volatility, but we are still in the same place since May, June. And perhaps that's what creates frustration, and frustration, I tell you, is clearly not your ally. So, that's my take on BTC. As I said, still in this sideways phase, I'm being patient and I'm not making mistakes. If I have to not trade, well, I prefer not to trade than to look for a false move as long as I don't have a clear market direction. Above all, I clearly prefer to trade when I have a good bullish trend, when I have a good trend like what we have here, for example. And here, we are a bit in a sideways phase. So I don't specifically have any setups that are triggering from an order flow perspective.
What we need to watch out for. We have an interesting wall around 100, 115,000 dollars, 114,000 dollars if we have to go lower, the 110,000, the no, the 100,000, 100,000 dollars. We see that there is interest, there is some demand being created just below, there is liquidity, so we see that we are a bit in a battle zone. If I look on Coinbase, well, we still have these big psychological figures of 100,000 dollars where there are quite a few buy orders waiting to be executed, it's logical, they are big psychological figures, but otherwise, nothing alarming here. For the moment, if I look here, we still have fundings that are rather neutral, positive, but we will always have more positive than negative fundings in crypto, but overall, we have a rather neutral funding. No FOMO on the open interest since the drop we had and the big crash at this level. We have purged quite a few people. And we still have a spot CVD that is down, a futures CVD that is down. This means that we still have quite a few aggressive sellers. I remind you, CVD is Cumulative Volume Delta. It simply accumulates the difference between market buys and market sells. In short, between aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers. It allows us to see if there is more selling pressure or more buying pressure. Be careful, it's not because we have a falling CVD that the price automatically falls. Why? Because it only measures aggressive sellers. We have two types of orders, I remind you. Market orders. Okay, market orders are those that want to be executed right now. And limit orders. We have on one side here aggressive orders and here passive orders. When we have a drop in CVD like this, it's because we have a lot of market sell orders, but a buyer, a seller on the other side, there's always a counterparty. When there's a buyer, there's a seller. When there's a seller, there's a buyer. So if we have a lot of aggressive sellers and a price that doesn't drop, it means that on the other side, there is absorption. And here we see that on the spot CVD, we have absorption. Since we are making a lower low at this level. I'll try to show you better. Here, we are making a lower low. Okay, this low, this low is lower than this one. Whereas here, this low is higher. This means that there is absorption here. We have buy limits absorbing the sell market orders. That's how you interpret this kind of indicator. Okay. And here we have buyer absorption. And, well, that's how for those who didn't know what Cumulative Volume Delta is, it's a very interesting indicator, more of an order flow type indicator that we use here because we are talking about volume, which has no relation to price. We are solely on volumes. H. So, well, that's it for BTC.
We will also talk about Ethereum, which is still in this sideways phase. It's not doing much, a compression phase, lower highs, higher lows, there will be a resolution at some point. Whether it will be in a week, in 2 days, it's complicated to say. We can look at the volatility and see what it looks like. We still have significant volatility. It's not like when we have gaps like this with purple flashes that indicate attention, volatility, a big move is coming. We see a recovery, bam, it goes. Here, volatility, bam, it goes. If I switch to daily, well, the last time we had low volatility was at this level. We took off upwards. Here, we had a bit of low volatility. Well, we have a reduction in volatility. We'll see in the coming days. If it stays like this, we will surely have a purple arrow that will simply mean attention, a big move is coming. We can't necessarily know the direction, but it tells us "Okay, attention, volatility, we can expect a recovery, whether upwards or downwards, but with a strong move." It's exactly the same for Ethereum, the daily tunnel still acts as support, moving averages are still oriented downwards, the 1-hour below the 4-hour, the 1-hour acting as resistance, the 4-hour acting as resistance. So we are in compression here. A bullish signal for Ethereum would be to regain $4,250, to flip this resistance level into support. Okay, we will have confirmation that we are putting in a bottom, that the resolution of this range is upwards, and then we will have two targets: around $4,500 and then $4,800. And as long as we maintain this level, nothing alarming. However, if on weekly we start to close, that's what I'm mainly watching for, the weekly close. If we start to close below 3800-3700, it would be really bad for the future. Each time we have tested this low zone on weekly, we see that we have had quite significant wicks that show us that buyers are present and defending this level. Now, we still have sellers, that's a fact. So, we are at a support level for Ethereum. There might be opportunities, but we still need to be cautious for the future.
Now, we have some altcoins that stand out. I remind you, the work I often do for you in videos is simply to locate, to identify altcoins that are strong, that are outperforming BTC. We can see this in different ways. First, we can look against the dollar and say "Okay, which altcoin stands out? Which altcoin is in an interesting dynamic?" If we look long-term, well, BNB is doing quite well. TAO remains correct. If I look a bit more short-term, well, Solana stands out. So, it's about taking altcoins that are doing quite well. Also look at the performance against BTC. You see hype here, we are trying to put in a bottom. Solana, we are in a generally bullish trend, and here we are trying to put in a bottom. BNB, we are in a consolidation phase, but we are still in a bullish trend. That's quite good compared to other cryptos like Ton, which are in a bearish dynamic. So when we've done this work, when we know certain altcoins that could be interesting, well, then it's about doing the work, going to look for the altcoin in question and seeing if there are opportunities. I'll take Solana as an example. From a long-term perspective, for me, I wouldn't have an opportunity because we are too high. However, for a swing trader, it's quite good. Why? Because we have exited this sideways phase upwards and we are pulling back to the $180 level, which was a resistance level for a while. We broke it, it acted as support, we re-entered it, it acted as resistance, and now we are going back above it, and we see that we are consolidating at the $180 level. And here, it would be quite good if we start to go above the 1-hour tunnel, the daily tunnel, and break the 4-hour upwards. We could be on a small bottom and say "Okay, very good, I have an impulsive candle, I'm looking for a long at the breakout, I have an invalidation above, and the goal is to continue the trend, to go back to, for example, $235-$250, that could be a target for Solana." In any case, we are at a support level here, it's a level where we will look more to buy, and I clearly prefer a chart like Solana, for my part, than a chart like, for example, I don't know, Ton, as we saw. For example, if I take Ton, well, it's ugly, this kind of altcoin. There's nothing to do for trend continuation, whereas on Solana, it's already a bit better. So, on that, we have Sol, we have Hyperliquid which is doing quite well, what it's doing today. We've come back to test this support level. We seem to be putting in a bottom here. If I go to 4 hours, we see it better. Here, the validation of a low, a high, we retest this low because V-shaped bottom bounces are often retested to form a larger structure here. We are starting to close above $39, $39.5. We would validate a reversal pattern here. The drawback is that we still have resistances that are quite close. It's not like we made a W pattern with lower volatility or at a lower level, that would have been more interesting. But hey, Hyperliquid shows us that there is demand, it's pushing quite a bit. I remind you, it's a favorite project of mine that I think has great potential. From that perspective. If we look at capitalization, where are we with Hype? 13 billion market cap. 11th. For me, it's a project that can reach, that can aim for, well, Solana, XRP, BNB, and sit at their table. Not overnight, it won't happen quickly, but for me, there is potential. So, well, it's one to watch. But I wouldn't be surprised if we reach these different cryptocurrencies within a timeframe, I would say 1 year to 1, 2, 3 years max. Okay, so, well, there is still significant upside. If I take the market cap and look at Solana, XRP, BNB, well, that leaves us with a x10. Now, be careful, not all supply is distributed. If I take the FDV, we have an FDV of 40 billion here, which is normal. Not all supply is in circulation. We see 33%. If we take an FDV of 40 billion, we could already make a x5 approximately, a x5, x4. Come on, it's possible. It's possible over a 3-year horizon to reach a x4, x5 with the full FDV, we would be around $200. Already $100 for Hyperliquid wouldn't surprise me. After all, you shouldn't push too far either, you always need to have realistic targets. Here, if we were to make a new ATH, we could see extensions, we would have targets between $83 and $98. If we take the wick of the crash of the 18th, of October 10th, if we take just this wick, that would give us targets of $75 to $85, which is an objective, a totally realistic objective.
So, I'm taking the altcoins that I've been asked to analyze. By the way, put in the comments, as I said, the next altcoins you want me to analyze. So, what do we have? We have YGG. YGG, I talked about it not long ago, so it will be quite quick. Still a chart that is not great. For me, there's nothing to do. Either we look for longs where we are because we are at a low extremity and we say "Okay, we're going to retest this reversal structure, this last bottom that occurred in March." Okay? And we say "very good, the location is good, I'm looking for longs with the objective of retesting the upper extremity." In that case, yes, we are in a good zone. However, the 1-hour is bearish, the 4-hour is bearish, the daily is bearish. And we have to take that into account, which is that we are at a support level but we are in a bearish dynamic on all time units. So, it's a bit complicated. Personally, if I were looking for a long here, I would wait for a reversal pattern like we did here. You see, we validate a W, we break the 1-hour and the 4-hour, we pull back. It can be interesting to position yourself here or at the limit at the moment of validating the breakout here. A bit more aggressive, but it can be done, but it's much, much too early, and long-term, we haven't broken major levels. So, well, either we do that now, or we wait for a re-entry into this level because there is this resistance zone that is still present, and we have broken a good structure. Here, we could have maintained, if we had maintained this level, we could have made a new ATH and continued these higher lows and higher highs. The problem here is that we have structured an MTP, so we need to re-enter this level for it to be bullish.
So, next, I was asked for an analysis of CAS. CAS is not great. I was talking about it when we exited this sideways phase. Generally ranging between two levels. Honestly, this top that CAS has made reminds me, you know, of the BTC market top in 2021. Hop! 2000, 2020, 2021, I don't even remember the date, May 2021. Just this, you see, it reminds me exactly of the same chart, just not on different time units, but hop, high, high, high, lower high, hop, high, high, high, lower high, breakout, breakout, and then we go. At least the top, I'm not saying it's exactly the same afterwards, and anyway, charts never look exactly the same 100%. There can be similarities, but never 100%. And CAS, I talked about it for a long time, it's a project everyone was talking about. That's it, CAS will outperform, it will flip BTC, it's the future. No, no, frankly, when things are too good like that, they need to be realistic. No project will surpass Bitcoin, it's not possible. And all those who told you otherwise, well, unfortunately, either they are beginners and we can't blame them because that's how it is, or some are messing with you, but I didn't expect CAS to outperform BTC. Moreover, we were not at all in a good location zone as I taught you when we were in this phase where I talked about it very often. Now, we are breaking this level. We are breaking it again. We are working on this level as well. It's not great. Here, if I draw a Fibonacci, I take the lowest point, the highest point. Fib alt, even. Hop. No, Fib Alt. Tac. An interesting zone, 0.86. Already here, we are retesting a first level. That's quite good. And I remember when I was here, making videos, I was saying CAS doesn't interest me, we are too high, and I was talking about long-term reload zones, even here at 4 cents. Everyone was saying "No, it's impossible, it can't retrace that low." It's always the same. You just need to be patient, you just need to have patience. Okay? That allows you to have entries, and when everyone panics, it can become interesting. I'm not saying CAS is going to the moon, ATH, etc., but a professional investor rather looks for entries in this kind of zone, support level 0.8, 186, etc., rather than when we are in FOMO to the moon and we are much too high. Now, we are still in a bearish dynamic. Same, the 1-hour orange acts as resistance, the 4-hour also, you have to wait for a pattern. And here, especially long-term on weekly like this, you have to wait for a weekly pattern, you have to wait for a buyer signal at least. This kind of pattern, I'll put it in logarithmic. Yes, that's more interesting, we have this kind of pattern, higher lows and higher highs, we break. Okay, there are setups that can be taken. We pull back to the neckline, it's quite good. If we do something like this, well, it will be much more encouraging.
So, Z, where are we? Pretty much the same, I think. Yes, it's exactly the same. Same, everyone was talking about it here. That's it, to the moon, etc. And that's what I was telling you earlier. Remember this. We swing between fear and euphoria. Euphoria, fear. Euphoria, fear, and that pushes you to make bad decisions. Euphoria, FOMO, that's it, to the moon, buy long. Absolutely. And here, everyone is afraid and everyone is selling. I'm not saying you shouldn't sell, I'm just saying it's too late. Clearly, I can't sell now. There's no reason to sell after a -97%. It can go lower, you know. When I say that, I'm not saying it can't go lower. We can have another -60%, it's possible, even -90%, but we are not in a good zone here to look for shorts to sell. Okay? And also, we are not in a good zone to look for longs. To look for longs, either we reclaim this level, we go back above this level and we validate this type of pattern. That is to say, we have a re-entry followed by a W pattern, that would be good. We would go back above the moving averages which, I see on the short term, are clearly bearish. We see the 1-hour below the 4-hour. So this is literally ugly what we're doing. Either, if we continue to slide and we want to go lower, well, it's to wait for a bottom to be put in. For example, at this level, and for us to have this type of structure. Personally, I wouldn't put money into this kind of project, or perhaps a short to medium-term trade, nothing more, but you need to have conviction to buy a crypto like this that pumps without having made any structure. There is no structure, nothing happened. There wasn't a year-long sideways phase for it to pump like this. For me, these are scam projects that lead nowhere.
I've covered everything, I've said what I wanted to say. Don't hesitate to tell me the next altcoins you want me to analyze, to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description.