Transcription
From my understanding, it's because it's aggression. It's a violation. UN charter is a black and white situation that you could not be between. You should well you should condemn Russia support. You could not be between in between because black and white situation.
Now in the same way I was ambassador UN then the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not endorsed by the UN security council was not uh an act of self-defense and so Kofanan called it an illegal war now let me ask you a simple question a painful question that was an illegal war did the European Union apply sanctions on United States.
What you just heard was an exchange between veterans Singaporean diplomat, Professor Kishor Machbubani, and a scholar from the Polish Institute of International Affairs. This full conversation took place in September of 2023. It was more than just a dialogue. It was a head-on collision between two fundamentally opposed world views.
In the content that follows, you will witness the European host from a perspective based on morals, principles, and alliances repeatedly press Professor Mach Bubani. Why is Asia so appeasing on China? Why does it remain ambiguous in the black and white war in Ukraine? And Mak Bubani with his signature Asian realism will deliver one sharp rebuttal after another, attempting to reveal a truth his European counterpart is unwilling to face in a cruel geopolitical world. To what extent are the morals and principles you hold so dear nothing more than a selective hypocrisy full of double standards? This is a great debate between European idealism and Asian realism. Let's continue.
To be honest, I have several questions. But to be honest, I'm not completely agree with you in a sense that I I would be very surprised if you. Okay. So, let me let me ask you several question referring to what you have said. First of all, you said that um of course the the um the Asian countries are focusing on the economic and social development and it will be economic situation would be better the Asia would be number one the world is preparing for Asia century. So my question is um uh about this situation in China because and also reading your book um I think that there is a kind of a change in China that I agree with you um you you wrote this book a few years ago that there is a kind of a social contract in China that a party or Cinping government provides society the economic development and they and there's kind of um of a deal and they could have this political system, people are pretty happy and so on and so forth. But I have a impression that right now is a kind of a change of this contract that this focus is on in China not on economy and economic development and social well-being but mostly on the security issues. You know, I'm talking about this zero COVID policy, especially the second hard lockdown. The problem economic problems that China is facing right now. The the good example is this real estate um crisis. Also, the fact that party decided to to not to publish the um data of youth unemployment. So this is the question how the impact of China's economic situation may have on on on on China and on Asia also in this rivalry between United States and China and also um um uh as you said that there is a kind of a dilemma in Europe um when it comes to looking at this China uh US rivalry I think there's to be honest there is a kind of a consensus that we should that we should cooperate within United States and that China is to some extent a challenge or even a threat. Of course, we do not to decouple. There is right now the risking uh slogan that we would like to um what we would like to have is to focus of strategic dependencies when it comes to our security issues. So, so I think in that sense there is no dilemma. Um and and the last point and also I would like to ask you because of course for us right now the most important thing here in Europe is the war in Ukraine because of Russia's invasion. So how to deal with China and also how to communicate with the Asian countries in with China because China from our perspective supports Russia. So if China supports the aggressor and Russia is our the biggest threat, how to cooperate with China and how to cooperate with the countries that um do not do not have a very clear view when it comes to this invasion. I know that it's it's not a major topic in in Asian countries in Asan countries, but for my understanding it's because it's aggression. It's a violation. U charter is a black and white situation that you could not be between. you you should well you should condemn Russia support you could not be between in between because black and white situation so this is my question to you after your remarks thank you thank you.
I know as I said I'd be very surprised if you agree with me uh we look at the world very differently from uh the other but there are three big questions you're asking me number one is the China growth story over uh number two uh what are Europe's uh strategic interests and number three how do we factor in the Ukraine war? Uh these are the three big questions.
Now the first question um is a China growth story over uh I always whenever I speak to any audience uh issue a commercial warning that never trust the Anglo-Saxon media on China because if you use the Anglo-Saxon media to understand China you will get a very distorted perspective and if you want if you're interested I can email you 20 years of headlines from major uh western newspapers including the economist saying is China about to collapse? Is China about to collapse? China story is over. It's 20 years consistently. So, so this is what is happening now.
But I'm talking that about the collapse. I'm not you know I I don't want to to be so extreme about collapse but the economic problems that China is facing let's say. Yes. Yes. But you see you you are only you only hearing one side of the story. Do you know that last year China overtook Japan to become the world's number one automobile exporter? How come a country that is struggling becomes the world's number one uh economics exporter? Did you hear that in the scientific journals in tier one peer-reviewed scientific journals which country is now producing the number one largest number of uh peer-reviewed scientific papers in the world? Used to be United States today is China. So what we Asians notice China has got massive problems but China has always had massive problems. China is the largest country in the world. The largest country in the world has the largest problems in the world. So yes, there are problems um uh with the way they manage CO. I think they handle CO the exit from CO very badly. They make mistakes. I mean no country is perfect. Every country makes mistakes. China has made lots of mistakes too. The question is can China learn from its mistakes and and and overcome it? And I can tell you that the Asian countries have decided that the China growth story is continuing and they're going to be part of it and they're going to integrate uh with uh uh China. So the uh that all the problems you mentioned right for example the real estate uh crisis they will solve it. It may take a few years but they'll solve it. And don't forget China still has the world's largest foreign reserves $3 trillion which they can do a lot with. You know they have all kinds of resources and the the Chinese have developed a very pragmatic way of managing these issues uh that they do. So this year is a bad year for China 2023. Maybe they'll have one or two bad years. They have they well they'll come out of it and they don't and they remember they only have to grow at four they've been growing at 8 9% right for the last 30 years they only have to go to four four to 5% and they can overtake the United States. So it's it's a question of the overall perspective. Uh and anyway, I can assure you if I come back here in 5 years time, you will find that my predictions are right and the Anglo-Saxon media is wrong. I can confidently predict that.
See now the second point about Europe strategic interest. Now one point I always emphasize is that geopolitics is a very cruel business. If you try to inject moral values into geopolitics, you always get into trouble because it's all at the end of the day about interests that drive countries. Now, you mentioned this, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is illegal. That's absolutely clear. I was ambassador to UN for 10 years and I know what makes a war legal and what makes a war illegal. A war is legal only if it's endorsed by UN Security Council or if it's an act of self-defense. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not an not endorsed by UN Security Council and also not uh not an act of self-defense. Now in the same way I was ambassador UN then the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not endorsed by the UN security council was not uh an act of self-defense and so Kofanan called it an illegal war now let me ask you a simple question a painful question that was an illegal war did the European Union apply sanctions on United So and and the rest of the world understood you have your interests perfectly natural your interests were very clear right so that's that's how countries make decisions now you if you read my book I point out that what the European Union needs to be concerned about is its own long-term strategic challenges and the biggest strategic challenge for Europe over the next 10 20 years is going to come from the demographic explosion in Africa. Now in the year 1950 Africa's population was half that of Europe. Today Africa's population is 2 and a half times the size of Europe. By 2100 Africa's population will be 10 times the size of Europe. So your your main strategic priority is to focus on the development of Africa because otherwise if you don't the migrants that will come will create far stronger farright parties in in all over European Union and then you will have a very different situation but that at the end of the day it's your decision it's your decision not not ours but we in Asia you notice We don't have migrants, right? Because we create opportunities for jobs for people where they live, right? Indonesia with a population of 260 million is much poorer than its neighbor Australia. Australia's got 25 million. No migrants from Indonesia to Australia. Why? Indonesia creates hope for its people. the the Indonesia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. So that these are so we we are focused on creating stability for ourselves for the next 10 to 20 years and I would encourage um uh Europe to also focus on your own interests where where are your interests and focus on them because that's your decision and whatever decision you make is your right decision.
Now third third question on Ukraine one quick point. Uh if ask just a very simple question what is the difference between the Chinese position on Ukraine and India's position on Ukraine? The same. Huh? The same. They're exactly the same. So to be frank, let me offer my personal perception. Yeah. I think that India is becoming like China and I agree with you that India position and China's position is the same but it does not um it does not solve the problem. It's another it's the additional problem that India as a democratic country has the same position uh on Russia's invasion. So this is the huge question for me also how to deal with India not only with China. But let me just then let me add I predict over the next 10 years the United States will caught India ferociously. I predict that despite his position on Ukraine. Well and and and the reason I say this geopolitics is a very cruel game. Very cruel game. Unfortunately, I wish it wasn't. Mhm. I wish that my predictions that I made 30 years ago didn't come true. Unfortunately, they keep coming true.
Professor, can I guess refer to your um response to my questions about this um um China's situ economic situation and you said that we have access only to the Angloax Saxon stories. To be frank, it's very diffic difficult to have access to the Chinese information. you know as a China expert for years I have an access to this um database of China's articles in Chinese I remember I went to China and I have to buy a kind of a card with some kind of uh code and I could download the articles right now it's impossible few years ago it was be it was uh very expensive right now it's impossible so you know it is also the problem with us that China is in that sense is not um open country that I could not even download without asking my friends in China if they could help me you know so this is and this is the problem of the access to the information that is a very difficult to have access to the information from China and also talking to Chinese experts right now they are also using in my understanding official talking points you know it's difficult to have um the conversation which could be a little bit it's a critical but situation in China some critical about the the government so this is also the question that maybe you're right maybe it's better situation in China that we think that we have problems to have an access to the information so this one issue um the second one about this uh situation and and this um um Russia's invasion and you said about Iraq and the United States well I have an impression that it is that what you what you have that is is what aboutism. Okay, I agree. We may we may criticize but we are in a um 20 years later and uh Asian country using the same and China is using the same argument. What about uh war in Iraq? What about situation in Afghanistan? So let's let's go a step further and say okay there was a mistake. It was a mistake. We shouldn't do that. So maybe why we should also say but what about it's like a what about isism don't you think that we should be pretty uh clear that is a okay it's an invasion and um so this is my question and and to be frank about um the um the our interest in cooperation with with Africa and so in your book you wrote that we should cooperate together with China when it comes to Africa. Well, generally speaking, yes, I I know that we should as a as a Europe cooperate with Africa, and it's no, it's it's not a question, but right now, the biggest problem for us is the war that we have um behind our border, the classical war with a Russia is an aggressor. And to be honest, here in Poland, this is the biggest problem, the biggest question that we are really afraid of a situation that Russia and Putin says is openly that let's say eastern flank Poland Baltic state and other targets after Ukraine. So it's not only war between Russia and Ukraine, it's war between Russia and the western countries. So this is the biggest problem. And when you say about migrants, we have so many Ukrainians here because we accepted them, we open our arms, offer them shelters. So you know this is the biggest problem right now. Okay, I agree that we should cooperate with with Africa, but this is the biggest the biggest threat, the biggest challenge, the most important thing that we have a war. It's not like a hybrid war because to be honest before the invasion, we thought that it could be kind of a hybrid war. You know, the the mo there is no there was no any expectations that will be let's say um um classic old-fashioned war, but we we face it. There are people who are killing are killed by Russians. So this is the most important issue and we have a problem how to cooperate with other countries, how to convince them that it is our biggest threat and how to cooperate with them if they if they think that it's not important and talking about um war in Iraq. Okay, it's from my understanding it is what about to some extent?
Well, two again first for your first part your question about getting information in China and the second part about um what about is what isism I guess is what you call it. It's a interesting phrase. Now getting information in China is difficult. I agree with you but unfortunately uh uh China is a reality. 1.4 billion people are not going to go away and uh China will become the world's largest economy. So we have the unfortunate responsibility of trying to understand uh our biggest neighbor right and uh but in one way or another uh we Asians find that by traveling to China uh we go there I go there three four times a year I meet people uh have reasonably candid conversations uh sometimes about what is their problems and so on so forth and at the end of the day most Asian countries is find China a predictable partner that if you make a deal with China, the deal sticks and it's done. And also uh the world's largest free trade agreement was launched uh in January 2022. It includes ASEAN countries proposed it 10 assean countries. It includes China, China and includes four allies of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand. So you can see that in in Asia we take a very pragmatic view of these things. If it works, we do it and we will work with China, we will work with India, we'll work with any country with and we also work very closely with United States by the way. uh um so and in fact United States has invested more in ASEAN than it has in China, Japan, South Korea, India combined. So we have close ties with both. So we that's that's what that's our approach is to be very pragmatic, focus on our interests and then we carry on.
Now when you ask about uh uh the position why why doesn't the rest of the world take a as strong a position on Ukraine uh as the Europe does? Uh I think the Indian foreign minister replied to your question. Do you remember what he said? He said this I'm quoting the Indian foreign minister. He said the problem with Europe is that Europeans think that Europe's problems are the world's problems but the world's problems are not Europe's problems. So he said for example why did you all run away from Afghanistan you spent so many years there the west just abandoned Afghanistan and then the region has got to pick up the pieces says why isn't Afghanistan important so I think it's important for Europeans to show some degree of sensitivity to the interests and needs of other people including the interests and needs of people who much poorer than Europeans. And I would say exhibit A is the Africans. Right now, as you know in Asia, three countries have imposed sanctions on Russia. Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. Three countries. But the rest of Asians, no sanctions on Russia. Among Africans, no African has imposed sanctions on Russia. Among South Americans, no country in South America has imposed sanctions on Russia. So I think you should ask yourself why. Why are they not doing so? And the simple answer is that they have their own needs and concerns and interests. They have their own problems, their own challenges they have to deal with. Right? So I think you should show some sensitivity because Europe at the end of the day makes up less than 5% of of the world's population. Then 95% out there. The remaining 95% have their own concerns and interests which are very real also and in the case of India as you know uh India's main priority now is to focus on growth and development to eliminate poverty in India and one way they're doing it when the prices of oil went up as you know India went from buying 1% of Russian oil to buying 20% of Russian oil because they have to keep their economy growing and but What's shocking is that India is now exporting some of his Russian oil to Europe and Europe is buying it and these are examples of the pragmatic decisions that are made. So I think it is very when you talk to the rest of the world don't give them a black and white view of the world because the world is very complex and very nuance and and if you can engage the world and understand these complexities and these nuances then you will understand this and you know as you know even in the case of Poland also uh I don't know whether I should mention this the latest development came as a big shock to me Right. I mean it was when I read that I said cannot be. Didn't Poland say that they will stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. But it's not true. Yeah. Yeah. But that's that's what came out in in the media. But it is it's also true that you've had a big fight with Ukraine media. No, no, but that the whole world whole world read it. You know, it's amazing for the elections. Yeah. Okay. So, yeah. Yes. Yes.
I I will I will open the floor to to you. But I have a one uh one additional question uh to professor because you said that um well I so my question is because um you said about the African countries, Asian countries that they have own interests, India is in own interest that of course we are focusing on our problems in Europe and we should not think that um the whole world will be focusing on our problems. But so I have a question about something which is called the food security um because there is as as um um Ukraine as a producer of of of grain and now of course there is a debate here in Europe but um don't you think that we should explain to the let's say um other countries that for example the problems with the food with the that they are facing with the with supply after his invasion is a because of Russia because I have some some understanding that that what the countries um not non-European countries think that they do not see that Russia is an aggressor and what is happening after the aggression which is detrimental for those countries is because of Russia not because of Ukraine or Europe as as Europe. So you know this is this is a kind of a logical problem for me that many countries they have pretty let's good relations with Russia they have its own interest but at the end of the day the problems they have for example with some food deliveries is because of Russia you know so this is the problem for me how to how to convince them and how to explain it so because after this discussion and what you said about the perception um in in Asia or Africa. So it means that the international does not matter. We can break the law if you like and we say okay we have our own interest UN charter does not matter. You know, this is the for me there's a problem because for me still, okay, I'm European. I'm in Poland. I'm I'm in a in a country that shares border with with with Ukraine. That is still black and white situation, especially when it comes to the aggression. It's not like, you know, you like the country or not or you do not like, but it's, you know, so this and the one additional NA open the floor promise. You said that for um um for Asian countries, China is a predictable partner. So what about some kind of um let's say China's let's say activities in the South China Sea for example the militarization then land reclamation um the kind of I know it's not a san country but what about this coercion against uh Australia or what about the um let's say China's um activities around the Taiwan you know what about this kind of activities does China is is doing which are not let's say um which is security related to be honest and not and China is because to be honest in in Europe for example in central Europe very important moment was the that we started to rethink our perception of China to um for example a coalition against Lithuania China's coalitions against Lithuania is a kind of a new mode of coercion because China's decided to weapon ize the supply chains. So I like to ask you about this question. I will open and then I will open the floor to to our audience.
Well um the each of the issues you raise may take half an hour to answer. I'll give very brief answers and that's there are problems by the way. I mean South China Sea you're right there are problems. uh there are differing claims between China and uh ASEAN countries. But you know if you read my book has China won in the chapter on South China Sea I begin by describing what uh one of the most distinguished American ambassadors to China told me uh his name is Ambassador Stapleton Roy. He understands China very very well. He grew up in China as a young boy as a father of missionary parents in China. So his understanding of China is among the best in the world. And at a lunch that I had with him and he and he allowed me to quote him in the book. He said that Kishaw when Xiinping proposed the demilitarization of the South China Sea to uh President Obama he said Obama should have seized that offer from President Chi say okay let's agree let's demilitarize the South China Sea and he said instead this is Ambassador Stapleton Roy American ambassador saying this instead he said we foolishly rebuffed him and we stepped up our naval presence in the South China Sea. And this is an American ambassador saying that America made a mistake in rebuffing an offer from China. That is something you will never read in Anglo-Saxon media. So uh and you know I have his permission. You can go and double check with him if you want uh uh what what he said. And in the case of reclamation of islands, it's important to at least state as a fact that the first country to reclaim land in the South China Sea was not China. Unfortunately, the Assean countries decided to do so. But the problem is that when the Assean countries claimed 20 acres, the Chinese claim 2,000 acres. They're so big. You cannot compete with China, right? But you if you ask me, will there be war between China and Asean countries in the South China Sea? Again, I make this h this prediction. There'll be no war. Come and see me in 5 years and let me know whether I was right or wrong. Uh and why won't there be war? because there are differences, there are challenges, but we keep on talking to each other and we keep on emphasizing we got to find solutions that work for both of us. And you know, the the reality is this. This is an unfortunate geopolitical reality that has been around for 2,000 years. When great powers emerge, you can't stop them. Don't expect the great power to adjust to you. You figure out how do I deal with that great power because it's a it's an asymmetry of power. And just as you know when United States emerged in the late 19th century, it conquered uh territories in Central America. It conquered Philippines from uh Spain in 1895, I think. And guess what? You adjust to a new power. These are realities. And as a student of geopolitics for 50 years, I I know that if you if you if you don't understand geopolitical realities, geopolitical realities will come and slap you in the face if you come from a small state like Singapore. So we we our position is that we will adjust depending on how the great powers are doing. And we do our best. We do our best. But at the same time, so far I can tell you that East Asia is thriving. It's amazing. The growth is absolutely phenomenal. And it was going to be even more massive growth. So for us, frankly, the world looks like a very happy place. I know it's very hard to say this year in Europe, but for us, you know, from in terms of the last 20 years have been wonderful years. The next 30 years are going to be even better years. So why why should we complain?
What we have just witnessed was an exceptionally brilliant intellectual exchange, one that perfectly illustrates the great divide between how Europe and Asia see the world today. The host from his distinctly European perspective repeatedly emphasized the necessity of morals, principles, and confronting aggressors. He defined the war in Ukraine as a as an indisputable black and white struggle. Professor Makbubani, in contrast, used a cold Asian realism to thoroughly deconstruct this world view with his sharp question, did the European Union apply sanctions on the United States for invading Iraq? He exposed the double standards of Europe's moral position. He quoted the Indian foreign minister's famous line, "Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems are not Europe's problems." To point out the self-centered nature of the European perspective. And ultimately, he warned Europe that in a complex world, do not offer a black and white view of the world.
This profound debate leaves us with several questions to reflect on. First is the pragmatic interestfocused Asian realism that Mahb Bubani describes a form of unprincipled cynicism or is it a higher form of survival wisdom in a cruel geopolitical world? Second, the European foreign policy based on values and alliances. To what extent is it still a respectable pursuit of idealism? and to what extent has it devolved into an unwitting subservience to American interests? And finally, and most critically, as the world's center of gravity shifts irreversibly to Asia, should Europe continue to cling to its principle-based moral high ground, or should it, as Makubani suggests, begin learning the realism of Asia to adapt to a world that no longer revolves around it? We are eager to hear your thoughts in the comments below. If you believe this intense collision of two world views has provided you with a valuable perspective, please like this video and subscribe to our channel. Thank you for watching.