Transcription
A for the history of capitalism and the history of technology just is coming to an end, at least on the trading floors of NASDAQ, Wall Street, and wherever you are trading the shares of SpaceX. It was a momentous day where probably the coolest and most important company of our lifetime was launched into the public sphere. People bought shares like crazy. It was oversubscribed. It was incredibly difficult to get these shares. The retail allocation went down from 30% to 20%, which was an indication that we actually also were oversubscribed on the institutional side.
Now, the distribution among retail shareholders was designed to get as many retail shareholders in as possible and minimizing the allocation to each shareholder, which then maximizes, of course, the total number while also getting institutionals even more shares than initially planned. And you know which shareholder I am? Retail and institutional at the same time did get nothing. It was MUA because I did not participate, as you all know. Not because I don't believe in SpaceX. I think it's literally the coolest company. Not the second coolest, but the coolest company ever. However, I'm not in a rush. I explained it yesterday in a video where I outlined my case for doubling down on Tesla and not going into SpaceX for a very simple reason, despite this being so cool. And despite me being very bullish on SpaceX, and despite me agreeing actually with James of Invest Answers, for example, saying that we have a very good chance of 10xing this stock in the next five years. [clears throat] But the probability that we see the following, you have probably all seen this chart by now. Uh, it was created, I don't even know by whom, someone on X. Great job. Uh, this was basically the quick pitch for what's going to happen.
So, what we actually see here is the predicted qualitative understanding of the SpaceX IPO. We will have IPO excitement, euphoria. People going crazy. Retail buys the top. I'm not going to bash retail too much, by the way. I'm both. I am institutional. I'm a retailer. It doesn't matter at this point. There are many, many institutionals who are also behaving like retail. There are many retail investors who are big, who are more rational and more strategic than many institutions. There are hedge funds who tend to be on top of their game. There are mutual funds who are a little dumb. There are index funds. These are all institutions that behave very differently. So, let's not get sucked into retail. But what is the case here is that this chart is with incredibly high likelihood correct. I'm actually predicting not one to two years, but this trough phase of SpaceX trading probably below the IPO price being very likely to happen, being very likely to happen, probably even this year.
But then we are getting into the surprise positive bull phase where I believe we are getting to this part of the equation, the exponential trajectory upwards earlier and faster than people will think in the future. In other words, I believe it's bad to get into SpaceX right now. Unnecessary waste of money. Of course, I'm never completely sure about that. Maybe I will be wrong, but who cares? And I'm going to buy this thing at 160 in December. Who cares? But I'm not looking just at the share price. I'm looking at the valuation right now that is basically running on fumes because in order to justify this valuation, you need this here. This exact thing you need. Everything else is noise. I understand people are excited about Starlink, but Starlink is just very hard to get to a $2 trillion market cap. If you're completely rational about it, you can. I think it will be huge, but it's going to take time and you need a $28 trillion TAM in order to justify an out-of-the-gate $2 trillion market cap. So, in other words, nothing matters here. Nothing really matters until we get to space compute, and that will take some time. This is not going to happen this year. That I can guarantee you. I think it will happen at scale, potentially faster than people think. End of 2027.
But the way Wall Street works is they're hyping it up today. They want to get the fees. They got the five biggest banks or most important banks to be the book runners on this IPO, which means Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, they're all hyping the hell out of this thing. There's not a critical voice to be heard, which means we are hyping it up. We're getting the price high, and then there will be a rug pull, of course, because that's what they love to do. And there will be FUD and everything. And the only thing that will save SpaceX and get the stock actually up again, and then beyond where it is now, is when the forcing function kicks in, but it needs to be a real forcing function. And the only real forcing function is orbital AI. The risk that this doesn't happen is very low. It will happen sooner than people think. But it will not happen now. And it will not happen in the first half of 2027. And that means from here, it is downhill. That is what I'm predicting until the forcing function kicks in.
And therefore, my strategy with SpaceX is very simple. And don't get nervous. We are getting to Tesla in a second. Let me conclude this. My strategy is very simple. I want to own SpaceX. Right now, I don't own it. Right now, we are at an incredible 169 as we speak. 25% up. Actually, slightly below expectations. I heard 175. I don't want to bash it. It's great. It's a great success for everyone who was in SpaceX before, and of course, everyone who bought, bought, or got assigned 135 IPO issuance. So that is great. But that means we are right now here at the peak. Maybe we go a little higher with the index inclusion, but I don't see a way how this is not going to drop and drop and drop and drop at some point until we see the forcing function coming in. That is the moment. That trough is the moment. The valley of fear and tears. Tears and fears. The valley of tears and fears is the valley where I thrive. Where I'm happy. Uh, not if it's my tears, but if it's other people's tears. Not because I mean, but I'm going to buy the tears down here when it's dropping because it will be a perfect Goldilocks moment of confluence of value confluence when people lose faith. We see the air gaps. The forcing function is missing. We are too highly valued in the eyes of Wall Street at that point. Probably end of the year, probably end of the year. There will be a little market crash here and there where it will hit this thing so hard because nothing can stop it from falling because there's no cash flow. And that is the moment in time where you buy SpaceX. Because when all hope is lost, probably in nine months, maybe in 12 months, all hope will be lost, and then everyone will forget about orbital AI exactly when it starts to happen sooner than people think. And then we will go on an insane trajectory, and then we won't make 11x from here to 2030, but we will make 20 or 30 or 40x because the stock is so much down. That is my theory. Very likely to become true one way or the other.
What does it all mean for Tesla, and why am I so excited? Let's take a short, quick, and deep look into what happened today. So, what I like about this whole situation here a lot is SpaceX started trading at 11:46 a.m. Eastern time. And where is that in this chart? Let's zoom in. Let's take a good look. Tesla was under pressure the whole time. You know, we had terrible, terrible, terrible five days. Oh, no. It is broken again. But this is down a lot. 8% or something. I mean, why? Why is it not switching here? We are down. What is this? One month, we are 7.7% down. And especially here in the run-up to the IPO, look at this. It's horrible. It's horrible. I lost a, I have a lot of book losses here, but I'm very confident right now. $442. We are down nearly 8%. Brutal, brutal, brutal. Uh, what do I like about this year? The last five days. You can see this. But what do I like about today? SpaceX went live at 11:46 a.m. ET. Look at this. Look at this. That is exactly when it went live. Okay. When you look at options pricing for today, we saw crazy premiums on the puts expiring Monday, expiring Wednesday, uh, or Thursday, I don't know. Um, these puts had crazy premiums on that. We were basically priced like an earnings, close to an earnings call. So much premium, so much risk, so much fear what Tesla will do in this whole IPO. Now, I thought we suffered so much against all evidence that RoboTaxi is going to scale. Maybe even Optimus is getting revealed in, you know, 30 days or something. Maybe 45, at least that was the plan. Let's see. But robo taxi, we have all these indications, and Tesla just falls down like a stone into the most exciting period of the company's history. Very likely SpaceX had a role to play.
And so here is exactly $394 per share, June 12th, today at 11:46 when SpaceX started trading. I will show you the SpaceX chart in a second. Tesla crashed. I was a little nervous because you never know how bad this goes. The theory is very simple. People actually, when SpaceX started trading, selling their last little pieces of Tesla shares to jump on the crazy train SpaceX, and that drove the stock down. I expected some volatility. So I was a little scared. I don't know when this actually stops. But see this? It sold off very quickly. Boom, boom, boom. Hit this very low of the day around 387, right? 387.31. Very quickly within 20 minutes. Very steep drop, even though it was already at the low. Boom. And then look at the recovery. Totally uncorrelated with NASDAQ at this point. This was all here. It lost the correlation with NASDAQ and just did its own thing. And this is very likely the last gasp of, "Oh yeah, give me the last beating, SpaceX. Yeah, beat me one more time. I will enjoy it because it will be the last time." I don't want to sound too German here, but last beating. Yes, beat me one more time because I know it's going to be the last time. And then this happens. And I love this chart. I love this chart because it tells us something. It tells us that this, in fact, was the last little piece of pain that SpaceX inflicted on Tesla stock, and that we are now liberated finally from that mini curse of SpaceX. I love SpaceX. I'm just saying as a Tesla shareholder, this was annoying. Uh, and that gives me a lot of hope that with that IPO, with SpaceX actually trading and giving us the last little sucker punch, this is exactly how Tesla fell opposite. This thing went up. You remember 12:10? Look at this. Exactly 12:10. Then the Tesla drop was over, and we inverted. Now, then SpaceX still goes up, but it's not anymore on Tesla's expense.
So, what does it all mean? I think the pain might be over. The tactically inflicted pain of Tesla stock based on SpaceX, in my opinion, is finally, finally, finally over. Everyone who wanted to sell and buy SpaceX has done it now. And this is a good indication. This is a very good indication that this exactly happened. And now we are free to run because don't forget what I said. I stick exactly to what I said. Here is December 16th last year. 489, 490 all-time highs of Tesla. If you go five years back, this is December 16th. Boom. Roughly somewhere here. This is all-time highs. And when we reached all-time highs, that tells you something. It tells you something about a company. It tells you that this is the point that has maximum, the maximum value Tesla can extract from the market as a stock based on where it was December 16th. All the hope for Robo Taxi, all the hope for Cyber Truck. And today, we are a company with Tesla that has made good on basically everything that people imagined. On December 16th of last year, we launched Cyber Truck actually in time. Cyber Truck is scaling now. It has probably close to a thousand Cyber Trucks produced. People lost track a little bit, but I did not lose track. We are roughly at a thousand Cyber Trucks produced or we'll get there in June. Where are these 10,000 Cyber Trucks? I'll tell you where they are. They are, for example, in Dallas. You know, all this excitement about SpaceX, and I'm not a SpaceX. You know, you know that these Cyber Trucks are all over the place. They are getting their little wheel caps. They're golden. And we will be golden too, very soon. So, that is happening. And that is why I believe Tesla is finally free to run. It's finally free to run. This is my theory. I stick to my predictions. I don't know if we hit 490 in June, but the odds are we will. If we see Cyber Trucks, if we see 24, 36, like a few dozen, 60 Cyber Trucks or something on the road unsupervised, there is absolutely no reason we're not going to 490 in June. And if you are a doubter, don't forget this is Tesla. Tesla goes, loves to go crazy and loves to jump like a crazy stock. Look at this. That was just in April 9th. It was at 345. And guess where it was? Two weeks later at 440. So from here, don't forget it takes only two days at 10% plus and you're at 490. So it's not a guarantee it will happen, but I think now the ballast that was SpaceX is gone, and we are ready to run.
So let's see what everyone is thinking. Let's go into the comments and see what you guys are all about today. You probably we have some new SpaceX shareholders on this call for sure. Let's see what everyone is saying. "Happy IPO day, Matt Weiss." "Happy IPO day back." "Street Crate Zero. I just put in an order 155 and got it. Wow, that's pretty good." "I did get one share from Robin Hood. Wow, one share. That's a good starting point." "My wife applied for 58 shares and got 12. Good ratio." "Audio is low. I know. I never can figure that out." "Tesla is going to $700 by end of the year." That can absolutely be the case. "I am also planning on DCA into the trough DCA." "I was wondering DCA." "Matt Vog 100 says, 'Meta going to buy Tesla?'" I don't think so. "Joe, fix your volume. It's It's low volume on your end. Sounds about half volume." "I don't know. What about my volume? You guys can tell me what's going on. But that's like a YouTube live stream issue because a lot of people tell me there's no problem and then some people tell me there is a problem. So I never know what's going on." "Let's see. We know Tesla is more likely to pop in the near future than both Tesla and SpaceX." I don't understand that sentence, but we know Tesla is more likely to pop. "My wife heard I put the in the order for SpaceX and she called me undisciplined, spanked me, and told me to go and mop the floor." Well, spanking is not always a bad thing. Um, so DCA, oh yeah, DCA. "Yo, your audience is telling you to wrap your lips around the mic." I should get closer. I didn't like what is even the problem. You guys let me know if there's any problem or not. "Do you think when SPX crashes it will affect Tesla too?" It depends if Tesla has a solid support, solid like forcing function of real Cyber Trucks being deployed. No, there will be no problem. If Tesla runs on some sort of fumes, sure, everything will affect it. "Are you going to buy SpaceX?" I just explained my strategy. "Pray 86 Sable. I will buy it when it's low and when it's getting close to an inflection point to the upside, not the downside." "Jared says, 'Your volume is fine.'" That's what I mean. There is no problem, Joe. Uh, says Andreas Peterson. Uh, so yeah, I don't know. Probably no problem. Let's go up more. "Will Tesla hurt if SpaceX falls?" We had this. "I'm all into Tesla. And I do mean Tesla. I have like $200 on my account every month." "Let me give you all a tip. If it's low on your end, increase your volume on the speakers." Andrea Peterson, this was the hack everyone was looking for. "Chop says, 'Joe, I have uh 15th of December 2860 strike leaps trying to understand how merger examples with SpaceX could impact to the downside.'" So there are different approaches or theories on what happens if you have an out-of-the-money high strike and let's say SpaceX acquires Tesla for 700 and you have an 860 strike leap. As far as I understand it, the most likely thing that happens is that your Tesla share, uh, Tesla options will be converted into SpaceX options. Right? Because from a legal perspective, you have the right to buy whatever Tesla is, the assets of Tesla, the representative company for Tesla assets at a 860 strike price, right? If there's a merger, you still retain that right, kind of, and it needs to be converted into the new entity. So if it's a one-to-one merger, you are basically after you do the math, you are allowed to, uh, you know, buy the merged entity at at the, uh, projected new strike price. "What are your thoughts on Rivian?" No, I'm not bullish on Rivian. It's, it is very hard to survive as an electric car company. I would be extremely not bullish on anyone outside Tesla to pull this off. So I'm not bullish on Rivian. Different for all the space companies. I think, you know, there we have a different situation. Uh, and some might actually make it. There's space is, there's a lot of space in space. Uh, I tend to think SpaceX will rise until December. Well, 26 due to indexes buying early 27, it may drop again. Thoughts?" So Mark Mark van Osen bugan bugen, that sounds very not actually Dutch, that sounds Flemish. What about this Mark? Let me know. Did I get it right? Are you Flemish and not Dutch? Mark van Oen. Uh, I want to know that now. So yeah, this is a very good question, but no, I don't think so. You have to be specific with the index inclusion. The inclusion in the S&P is not going to happen. It's going to happen in one year. So, forget about S&P. The inclusion in the NASDAQ is going to happen very soon. I think in two weeks, something like that, three weeks. Then the the recalibration, what is it? The rebalancing of the index funds is going to happen shortly thereafter. Which means the drive, the push, the demand push up for SpaceX is happening now. It is happening in July, but then they're running out of fumes. That's what I think. The index inclusions should be completely wrapped up by August. So then what? Then you're hanging in there at August. Probably go a little higher or hang in here with the index inclusions. And then comes just endless relentless selling pressure from all the expiration of the previous lockups. You know, they expire all the way down to 180 days. So by December 15th, the last person is, you know, not locked up anymore outside the major shareholders in Elon. They have to wait 366 days. Uh, but by mid-December, everyone can sell, and into December, more and more people can sell. And who's going to buy? You know how the markets are. They're going to get frustrated like, "Oh, where's the money? Where's the money? You're trading at 400, you know, EBITDA. You're trading at 100 something revenue." So that's the problem. "Sofa says many of us with you with you on Tesla. Yeah, I think you guys are smart." "My grandfather immigrated to the U as from the Netherlands. So it is Dutch." Mark Vanosenber. Vanosen Van Oenberen. Very good. Um, also I need to tell a bad joke in good faith. How many Germans does it take to change a light bulb? One. They are efficient and have no humor. Very funny. Nordic men. We got German jokes. Uh, street grade zero. "When are you going to tell the joke?" You guys are very funny. "Will a merger shorten that one to year one to two-year low trough?" Brian, that is a very good question. Of course, it's going to shorten it, but we don't need to worry about the merger because if the merger happens, then you're better off as Tesla anyway because other Tesla goes up. Like Tesla, it's its own thing. And if there's a merger and SpaceX is higher, that's good for Tesla anyway. So, you're always making in all situations, you're making more money with Tesla. And the trough, of course, gets shortened if you merge with Tesla because Tesla has its own forcing functions. Sorry, I have to use the word again. And so then we shorten it, but, uh, that's it. Uh, I love the German jokes. Uh, Rivian, we had already. That sound is totally fine. "We are not going to scale Cyber Truck until FSD version 15," says Vault Dweller. I listened very closely to what Elon said, and he was very clear that they don't have to wait for version 15. He also said super scale will happen when version 15 is out. But what does super scale mean? Not 10,000 or 20,000. Super scale means millions. So, um, there you have it. We had four three. This is pretty good. I'm recovering some of my paper losses. But it's important to stay firm when you have a thesis like this. I stay pretty firm and, uh, that was very good. Do we have more questions? What's going on here? They're still laughing about the German joke. Yeah. So, this is the situation. Uh, we are working on a major, major, major addition to Pioneer Lens. I don't know if we can get it done by Sunday, but I will present it to you guys on Sunday in the live stream and we'll represent to you what we actually revamped with Pioneer Lens daily. We will be more essay and analytics concentrated and downgrade the news a little bit. So we will have great publications of very smart essays and more analytical insights into the future of AI into our major stocks. Of course, we will have great financial models, but then we will add a little bit more cultural insights and political insights and we'll have these essays because what we saw from you guys, from the feedback is we want a little bit more clear delineated opinion on the three central pillars of politics, culture, and of course, money and AI. By the way, just saying. Um, Yazir Baras Baray Yas says, "Hey Joe, I really like your content and the vision you stride by. I do have a couple startup ideas when I lost it and was wondering if I could share them with you and go from there." Yazir, you should join Pioneer Lands and you we can discuss it there. That's the time to do it and, uh, and we can discuss all the great stuff there. I do not think FSD will ever come for hardware 3. Why should they? It's better to just focus on the future. You know, I'm not a hardware 3 guy. Like, I don't care too much. I feel bad for the people who have hardware 3. I think they will deploy some light version of it, but that is not too big. Um, 21st Century Knight says, "You got 116 shares of SpaceX of the 3,600 you asked for." H, that's not too many. Okay. Oh, now we have too many comments here. "Has anyone thoughts of the Optimus making deliveries in the Cyber Truck?" This, this can all happen, of course. "If the majority of SpaceX future TAM is in enterprise applications, ideally wouldn't it be better if SpaceX requires Anthropic?" Oh, you can't, you can't buy Anthropic. That's a little expensive. Uh, no. I think they have Cursa and Grok. And I think people underestimate how powerful this is. The acquisition of the Cursa team will happen soon. By the way, 60 billion. Technically, that's dilution. By the way, I hope maybe the market is just bullish on it, but there's another little dilution of 3%, right? 3%. I don't know. Uh, Andreas Peterson says, "Oh my god, you should absolutely add like five-minute stand-up comedy with Joe." Me, I'm not a stand-up comedian. I don't even know how to do that. Like every Friday you have to tell us some German jokes. I can tell German jokes. That's like very low bar because Germans are not funny. So maybe I could be a German stand-up comedian. Maybe this was asked earlier. I just logged on. But why are all other space stocks tanking today? Well, sell the news event. I mean, they went up like insane, and I thought it's very weird, but especially Space SPCE, that's so stupid. This Richard Branson thing, this total joke company went up so much and then dropped 30%. I think people honestly like confused it with SpaceX. This is how bad it is. Uh, MKSK84 says, "Not like Derry will sell. You can't buy Anthropic is not for sale. They're too big, too powerful. You need to beat them. You need to be Cursa and beat them, which is possible. I'm actually very bullish on this. But again, I'm bullish on all these things. I'm bullish on Cursa Enterprise AI. I'm extremely bullish on orbital AI. I think people totally underestimate what's going to happen. But this will take time. And in this time, the stock will drop because people are impatient. And especially the people who hyped the stock so much, they are a little evil. They are literally Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan. They're just abusing everyone. Uh, so GBC Y5HS says, "Yes, and Optimus making deliveries in the semi and new van when it comes out." Yes, that is perfect. M42601 says, "Joe, I love the honest perspective you bring to Herbert's channel. No sense in being overly optimistic." Yes, I think, you know how it is. The I'm doing this as an investor. I just share my thoughts here. I'm not a real I mean, I love YouTube. I love you guys. I love doing YouTube, but that's not a business for me. I don't rely on or like depend on this whole thing. I'm just doing it for fun to get some feedback. So, I don't need to hype anything. I'm just trying to say interesting things, but only if I believe them and it helps me to reflect. So, I'm maybe a little bit more straight with these things. And I'm never going to say anything that I think is not exactly what I think. And sometimes people get carried away with being fanboys or girls of stuff. I'm even though I sound sometimes like a fan of Elon, I have a deep appreciation what Elon is doing. I think he's taking some serious risks, but he's also making a lot of money off it. So, I have great admiration for Elon. I think he's doing a great job. I think sometimes he's wrong. Sometimes he's a little genius. Uh, we just have to be realistic with people and be of course appreciative of people who take so much risk and give us so much. But that doesn't mean you have to just believe everything and you can be a little critical when it's appropriate. Leonardo Fier, "I made it to the live show. Congratulations, Leonardo, and welcome." "Joe, if there's a merger between Tesla and SpaceX, when do you expect the announcement?" Well, that's the trillion-dollar question. I don't know, but I do believe the announcement could be as early as July or as late as July next year. Okay, so we need to have a broad window here, and you know it can happen early. There are reasons it could happen early, but there are also reasons it can can happen only next year. Leonardo says, "Good day from Los Angeles, my old hometown." So Leonardo, where do you live in Los Angeles? Give me the street. Give me the give me the the hood. Street credit zero says, "You have the equations wrong. We will get 453." What? I didn't follow that conversation. "I believe you were 100% correct with the whole $750 per share wedge." Yes. So, it can't go under, but above. Well, let's see. But I think that's the only thing that actually makes sense. Otherwise, you introduce all kinds of risks that you don't want. "SpaceX, uh, just sold my SpaceX is 165." That was probably a smart move. We have some real traders here. I hope you're not on Robin Hood where you get penalized for that. Uh, "Have 348 shares of Tesla. Oh, I'm losing this thing. Uh, what price would I add more?" "Only got 20 shares of 1,000 requested on Schwab." Uh, you mean of SpaceX? I think Tesla is a total buy down here. I mean, I'm I'm maxed out. M4760 says, "Oh, also don't tell Alex Alexander, but I thought you won the debate." Oh, I will not tell her. Uh, she got a little worked up, but you remained objective. Thank you. I appreciate it. You guys can always tell me when I win. Don't tell me when I lose. I'm just kidding. Tell me when I'm weak. Tell me when I'm strong. It's helpful to get the feedback. "The shape of the new symbol for the Roadster is a symbol of Superman's chest. What does Superman do?" I hear you ask. He flies. Of course, the Roadster is going to fly. Uh, yes, Andre. And Andreas. Uh, I won't yet. I I won't vote. Yes. Otherwise, exactly. And we still need votes. In my opinion, in my opinion, there are two reasons why SpaceX cannot just piss off Tesla shareholders. Number one, the votes are not secure. I think Alexander is wrong on this. They're not secure. If you do stupid things, both institutions and retail, you have fiduciary duties towards both of them, and they are going to get pissed. You cannot just do this. And second, you cannot open yourself up to lawsuits like that if there's anything anything fishy going on. So giant giants among men seven says, "I own I like it that it's giants among men 77, which means like there are probably 76 additional giants among men." Think about it. "I own 53 shares of Tesla and four of SpaceX. If they merge, will I own 57 shares of the company or is it not that simple?" No, it's not that simple. When you look at share prices, always forget the share price. The share price, you can split the shares, no one cares. You have to look at market cap. Market cap equals share price multiplied with the outstanding share number. 3.5 billion roughly, don't roughly 3.5 billion shares of Tesla, roughly 13 billion shares of SpaceX. If SpaceX is at 160, you have to multiply 160 with 13 billion. That gives you the real market cap, the real number that you have to compare to Tesla. And you multiply Tesla at 400 times 3.5 billion. And then you see SpaceX is worth more than Tesla. That's how it goes. So forget share prices. This is really stupid. It doesn't matter what the share price is. Share price, forget it. Doesn't matter. There's no such thing as share price. You have to look at market cap and you compute the market cap by multiplying the share price that you see in the tickers with the outstanding shares. I don't even know if you see the shares here. No, you have to like ask AI, then you can see the outstanding shares. Elsie Gando. Elsie Gundo. Elsie Gundo. That is where all the rocket science is. Silicon Beach. Elsie Gundo. Very nice. "What about crypto?" I don't know. What about crypto? Crypto. I'm very bullish on crypto. I think we saw a great bounce of Bitcoin. I think, uh, we are actually in pretty good shape on that side of things and, uh, I am quite optimistic to be totally honest. I know people are all nervous about that stuff and, uh, think it's the end, but this drawdown has been very tame compared to the previous, uh, drawdowns. You see that Bitcoin is at 63,000. We saw a very, very nice bounce from the 60,000. The important 60,000, uh, floor, the previous floor in February. Look at this. Bing. It bounced again and again and again. So, I don't think I, I'm actually pretty bullish on this whole situation, right? When you look at this, here's the floor before it was around the 60,000 or the first like, you know, when it ran up in 2024 and then it took a breather before it went super high and now it's back here. Head and shoulders and stuff like that. So, I think the 60,000 holds pretty nicely and we see a lot of fundamental buildup for Bitcoin. So, I am not very concerned. I'm actually pretty bullish. I'm just more cautious than with Tesla because with Bitcoin, who the hell knows? They have to be a little more cautious. "What are your thoughts on AGI?" That's a very good question. I love this. Yaz baras. Uh, "What are your thoughts on AGI in the moment we displace 99.9% of jobs or do you not think this will happen?" I think that this is a long story, but I think AGI is here. I think this stuff already works. I think from here it's all about the harness. I think the actual models are very effective. The actual models are probably at 130 IQ and will like maybe we we hit some kind of wall at 140, 150 IQ, maybe maybe that could be, but we already at 130. We at 130 IQ and the question how good these things become in terms of human percentage, that is not a question of the models, that's what people get wrong. It's the question of the harness around it. It's what you do with the models, is how you instruct your open claw systems and stuff like that, how they these MD files, how you manage the agents and everything. In other words, this is not rocket science. It's very easy. We will figure it out. Which means by end of this year, I guarantee you most white collar jobs are at stake. They can be replaced, and then it's just a question of execution, and that execution will happen much faster than people think. So I am not bullish on jobs. I think there will be a major, major wave of job destruction, and I think we're getting gaslit on a tremendous scale by all these people, and I think that's going to happen next year. I said it for a long time. I stick to my projections. I think next year we will see massive job elimination. And this idea you create more jobs than you destroy. Like definitely not in the short term. That's the dumbest story I've ever heard. And whatever you see right now in the data, people talk about the data. The data doesn't matter when you have disruptive moments in time because the data changes all the time. Forget it. "What was this IPO so just so Elon can pay a massive premium to acquire Tesla and finally retain majority voting rights?" No, Matt. I think that might be part of the reason, but the main reason is they needed money. They will need much more money in the future, and being public makes it much easier. Uh, "What about Amazon?" Amazon. I'm more bullish on Nvidia to be honest. Nvidia is just the steel of the century because Nvidia is like so cheap. Nvidia has a completely controlling market dominating position. I think Amazon is like midfield of the Mac 7. It's definitely better than Apple or something. It's probably better than Microsoft. It's probably not as good as Google, even though I hate Google as a company, but as a stock, it's pretty good. I think Tesla is the number one. And I think Nvidia is the number two. Uh, wow, we have so many questions today. Kieran Rice says, "Joe, if the merge between Tesla and SpaceX is inevitable, and I own quite a bit of Tesla shares, at least over 5,000. Congratulations. Should I still get SpaceX shares if my Tesla will eventually become under SP?" No, I would not. Just my take on it. I think you make more money by having more Tesla shares in case of merger. "Tesla will not get more than 5 to 10,000 robo taxis before H2 2027 earliest." We will see about this. I think we could easily get more. Green eggs and turkey bacon. That sounds yummy. Says Fable is an incredible model. Well, I hate I hate Anthropic right now in terms of writing. I'm using it mostly for essay construction writing, and it totally sucks. Deepseek is much better, by the way. I'm a big Deepseek fan now just based on what I experience, but I have a very specific use case and, uh, in coding, I heard Fable is absolutely incredible. Unfortunately, as pedestrians can have only until June 22nd. Well, after that, you can pay for API. "Yensen is gaslighting everyone." I mean, that's his job. We shouldn't be mad at Jensen. Of course, Jensen, like, what is he supposed to say? We all losing the jobs. No, he's going to say it's going to be amazing. Buy more Nvidia, and then when it happens like, no one could have seen that coming. "Is he going to say all I want to know is what happens to Tesla stock if they merge." So my expense when they merge, forget the share price, by the way. You always have to first look at market cap. If it's a one-to-one merger and SpaceX is at is at two trillion, right? And Tesla is at 1.5 trillion, for example. So we at 2.2 trillion right now. If you would merge today, just let me explain how this works. If you would merge today for one to one, which is the minimum they have to give us, I think, otherwise it's it's not going to work, otherwise, then that means Tesla would go to 2.2 trillion. Okay? If you have Tesla shares and we merge and it's a one one merger, one one, it's not one to one shares, it's one to one market cap. So that means SpaceX would pay 2.2 trillion in SpaceX shares to Tesla. And what does it mean for Tesla? Look, Tesla is at 1.26 26 trillion. So it had to go up nearly 100%. So you're dealing with a share price of roughly 750, as I predicted before. So your shares would go up to 750, which is a pretty good deal. I think most people would would yes on that. If I would give you $750 per Tesla share, would you give me your shares and exchange get the SpaceX shares? That's the question. We have so many questions today. "Will it be like Tesla and Solar City?" Well, different numbers, but same principle. "Why do you think MSE is mid-tier of the Mac 7?" Because I think Tesla has the highest potential. I think Nvidia is the best value. I think Amazon, I think Google is stronger than Microsoft. And Microsoft still has to show us that they still have it under control, that they can manage tightly. I mean, Google is managing better than Microsoft right now to get, uh, to get, uh, value out of this whole thing, and Amazon is also doing it better. So, I think Microsoft is just a little bit above Apple. "How do you feel about Intel?" Also, big fan. "Thanks for the videos." Thank you so much, Daniel Chadwick. Uh, Intel, I have to look at the latest. That thing went up a lot. Intel has a very strategic positioning because it's the only American chip maker. So they are benefiting from the Trump focus on keeping America's supply chain integrated. Same with Micron Technologies. So they have this enormous put option kind of that not much can happen to Intel. So that's good. So they have a lot of shots on target. So, it's they're in a good situation, but they went up a lot. So, valuation-wise, I didn't do a deep dive, but strategically, it's definitely in a bullish situation. "Mother of God, 750 sounds good." [laughter] Yeah. [snorts] Right now, that would be the case. Uh, Intel going to grow like hell, probably. "As a retail investor, I could say no. I think Tesla is worth more." 600. "But what options does an institution have to turn down above market price offer?" Yeah, good question. "MP Materials and rare earth USA stock." Yeah, I mean, all of them are bullish. You just have to watch out for valuations. Look at Micron. I mean, Micron is getting a little up there, right? Uh, and so things can go wrong from here.
Okay, we need to wrap it up. Uh, it's getting late, but I hope this was interesting. We're having a nice, nice, uh, move into the close. That is the topic of this video. So, as you can see here, Tesla doing pretty fine after this drop. And I think remember this drop. This is the point in time where we were, we were relieved from our little curse. That's exactly the last piece of the curse. And now we are off to the races. Don't forget this is a ridiculously low number for Tesla. Tesla got slaughtered with a SpaceX run-up here. Don't forget we were just at 440 not too long ago. And don't forget 490 is coming. All we need, all we need to get to 490 is 50 Cyber Trucks unsupervised. And that can absolutely happen even over this weekend. I'm not promising anything. I don't know about it. But these things are in the wild. They are being deployed. The time is now. We will see what happens. But I am very bullish here. Okay guys, thank you so much and, uh, see you tomorrow.