Transcription
Mortgage rates just dropped to their lowest level in 10 months, and buyers are starting to come back into the housing market. But here's the big warning sign. Inventory isn't growing. Active listings are stalling because sellers are not flooding the market with new listings. This is the setup that nobody's talking about. And in this video, I'll show you the warning signs you can't ignore if you're buying, selling, or investing in real estate right now.
Hey, if you're new to my channel, welcome. My name is Jason Frier. I am the housing nerd and for the last 7 and 1/2 years I've been a realtor and investor here in central Ohio. I'm here to give you the real housing market data, not the hype, to make a more informed buying or selling decision.
Of course, all this starts with mortgage rates because that is really spurring some of this new buying demand. And they're now at their lowest level in nearly a year. They're clocking in at 6.51% according to Redfin. But let's check mortgage news daily and see how they're doing right now as of this morning. Yep. August 27th, 2025, 6.51%. For most of the market, especially the people that want lower prices. That's a warning sign because as rates drop, more buying demand will come back into the market. And unfortunately, we've got supply tightening at the same time. You're going to see that in a minute.
Now, the other reason we're seeing more buyers start to enter the market is because mortgage purchase applications are up 25% year-over-year and up 2% from a week earlier. So, it should be very clear to you as mortgage rates fall, buying demand will probably continue to pick up. The other two things I'm seeing that could be big problems if you're waiting for lower prices is that Google searches for homes for sale. That's up 5% from a month earlier and up 15% from a year earlier. So buyers seem to be a little bit more interested in the housing market versus last year. Again, that's adding to that demand. And then you have touring activity. How many people are actually out there looking at home? That's up 27% since the start of the year. And that's up basically 17% year-over-year. So we know that mortgage demand is increasing because rates are lower. People are looking at more houses and they're online searching for homes more than they were last year. But let's find out if that's translating into more actual pending sales and buying demand.
So, for the second time this year, pending sales are actually up how much? Up 1.6%. Again, that's a warning sign if you're waiting to buy a home because it could signal that more buyers are running back into the market. Now, pending sales haven't exploded by any means. So, it's not like you got to run out tomorrow and buy a home. So, do you think pending sales are increasing because mortgage rates are falling? And do you think as mortgage rates continue to fall, more buyers will actually come back into the market? Drop your comment below. I'd like to know.
The next warning sign would be new listings. Because if we don't have people putting their homes on the market, you're not going to have homes for people to buy and competitions for sellers, which equals lower prices. And look at this. You can see new listings peaked in miday of this year, and they were actually on a steady incline, and we were seeing more and more people put their homes on the market. But then sellers pulled back and now new listings are up only 1.9%. Now many folks have predicted that if mortgage rates continue to fall, more and more sellers will list their homes on the market. And that could be true. We may see that as mortgage rates drop. But it's important to keep in mind 70% of all sellers are also buyers. So that churn of a seller listing their home but then rebying another home may basically negate all the inventory growth a lot of people thought we would see. But I'm curious to hear what you have to say. So, do you think lower mortgage rates will increase new listings? And do you think those folks listing their homes will actually buy another one? Drop your take below.
This next data point could be the scariest one of all. And you need to watch this closely, not only nationally, but definitely in your local housing market, cuz it gives you the pulse as to what may happen soon with prices. And that is the active listings. If you've been paying attention to the housing market this year, you've heard the stories of how inventory is absolutely exploding and it's a complete buyer market. But that story is changing and changing fast. If we take a look at the weekly active listing data, you could see back in late June, early July, we kind of peaked at 1,256,000 active homes for sale. But then that number started to fall and fall out of seasonality down all the way to 1.216 216 million. But the trend is clear. Active listings are falling right now, not rising. I mean, active listing data is throwing all types of red flags right now. But I don't hear many people talking about it. They're still hanging on to the narrative that inventory is growing and exploding and soon you'll be able to get the dealer of your dreams. You tell me in the comments below. Are you getting the deal of your dreams right now? Are you finding those houses that are basically the unicorns out there, move in ready, really nice, and sellers are completely desperate to sell? I'd love to know if you're seeing those in your market. I'm not seeing them where I live. However, that doesn't mean there aren't discounts out there. We'll get to that in a minute when we look at the cities.
Now, some headlines would make you believe that home prices are falling like a rock. Unfortunately, nationally, they're not. In fact, they're still up 2% year-over-year. And that's a warning sign because it means that when homes close, they're more expensive than they were this time last year, despite a record number of price drops. I mean, you have to go all the way back to mid2023 to find a year-over-year price drop in the national median home price. But for the last nearly 26 months, home prices have been more expensive year-over-year. Does that surprise you? Drop your comment below. But remember, these are national numbers. We're going to look at specific metros and see if we can find any large price declines.
The one bright spot I am seeing for buyers is the median days on market or how long a home takes to actually go into contract. And that now is sitting at 44 days. That's up about 7 days year-over-year. So the homes that are on the market, a lot of them are sitting longer than last year. It'll be interesting to see if this number starts to fall as more buyers enter from lower mortgage rates. So those are the big national warning signs. But the question is, how are these trends playing out in local metros across the country? Let's find out.
The poster child for housing crash hopefuls in 2025 has to be Austin, Texas. Let's start there. New listings are down 1.2%. Essentially meaning there are fewer people putting their homes on the market right now versus last year. At the same time, pending sales in Austin are up, not down, but up 6%. So you've got fewer sellers than last year in Austin, but you have more buyers. And because of that imbalance, you're seeing active listings fall in Austin. They peaked in late June and now they have continued to fall for the last couple months. Now 16,683 active homes on the market. They're still up 17% year-over-year with the number of homes for sale. But in an odd turn of events, you've got fewer sellers, more buyers, and now active listings are falling in Austin, Texas. If you think that's strange, check this out. Median sale price in Austin is actually up. That's right, up 2% year-over-year. Now, it's way off from the peak, though. I mean, back in May of 2022, they sat at $571,000 and now $448 grand. But let me know what you think. Will Austin home prices continue to rise?
We're going to stay in Texas and look at Houston next. New listings are down 5.6%. And if you're looking for a market that's crashing, look no further. But not crashing in prices, crashing in new listings. Back in May, new listings were exploding. They were up 15% year-over-year, but now down 5.6%. For the last several months, fewer and fewer people are deciding to put their home on the market in Houston. And you got to remember, new listings are really the bell weather when it comes to distress in the housing market. I mean, if you need to sell your home today, you're not going to wait until next year, you know, until just kick the can down the road. No. If you need to really sell, like truly need to sell your home, you're going to list it on the MLS today. And so when you see sellers pulling back in a metro, it quite frankly means there's not as much distress as you may have thought. And if I lived in Houston, that would be a big warning sign for me. New listings.
This next one, if you're on the sidelines waiting to buy is also a warning sign in Houston. Sold homes, not pending sales when they go into contract, but actual sold homes up 12% year-over-year. I mean, this trend is not good if you're hoping for lower and lower prices in Houston. You basically have more buying demand and fewer people actually putting their homes on the market. And that's translating, unfortunately, into fewer and fewer active homes on the market in Houston. Now, up 18% year-over-year, but it's falling. And the trend is obvious. Now, this is a city look, a subdivision analysis of where you may want to buy a house. That is completely different. But this is just an overview of the metro area. So regardless of these trends that you're seeing, if you happen to live in one of these cities and you want to know what's happening in your local neck of the woods, you've got to get really, really local by using usually a realtor to help you with MLS data.
Now, this next part is probably another warning sign because prices have not crashed in Houston. I mean, they're flat year-over-year at $342,000. Now, they did peak back last year in the summer at 352 grand, but prices seem like they may be rebounding overall. Could be because inventory is dropping. But let me know, do you think the Houston housing market will crash?
Now, we're going to head out east to the nation's capital, Washington DC. New listings down 3% year-over-year. Now, this next stat blew me away. It's a big warning sign if you're on the sideline waiting to buy a home in DC. Pending sales are up 22% year-over-year. Maybe all that Doge money they've saved out in DC gave a lot of people the opportunity to buy a home. But tell me what you think.
Now, this next chart is super scary because Washington DC active inventory is plummeting like a stone. At one point during the summer, they were up 30% year-over-year in the number of homes on the market, but now up just 13%. A lot of these trends we're seeing in these metros so far, I'm sure you can see it, mirror what we're seeing nationally. You've got lower new listings. You've got more pending sales and lower active listings. That's not going to help prices. And look at the median sale price in DC, $596,000, up 3% year-over-year, and has actually been up all year versus last year, not crashing. This is probably shocking to a lot of folks that expected Washington DC's housing market to fall off the face of the planet. But I guess they didn't get that memo because prices continue to go up.
Now, we head out to Ohio, where I live. New listings are actually up 5%. This is a reversal from the national trend where we saw just a blip of new listings. We're definitely seeing more here in Seabus and that's good. More new listings, more active listings will help moderate those home prices. And stay tuned. Let's see if Columbus is reflecting that in the data. I mean, look at pending sales. Up 9% year-over-year. People are like running back into the housing market. It looks like here in Columbus. Now, active listings have been elevated all year. And now they are starting to go sideways. maybe down slightly, but they're still up 21% year-over-year. So many more homes in Columbus to choose from. The problem is, I can tell you this from firsthand experience as a realtor and investor, a lot of these homes don't really count because they're super expensive, overpriced or in bad areas next to like train tracks or could be in flood zones or could be completely torn apart and need 100k or more in work just to bring them up to livable condition. And by the way, that's the part of the vacant housing story that nobody talks about. A lot of the vacant homes aren't livable.
Now, median sale price in Columbus, no surprise, still up over last year, $354,000. It's more expensive to live here in Ohio, buying a house anyway, than it is in Houston, Texas. Can you believe that? Complete reversal from when I started in the business here 8 years ago. We're seeing similar trends in Cleveland, Ohio, where new listings are up 6%. And that's good news if you're wanting more inventory as a buyer or lower prices. Pending home sales in Cleveland is up as well, up 9.4%. And so, as we've added more and more new listings in Cleveland and many other metros across the country, you're seeing more and more people run back in to actually buy the home, especially as rates fall. Maybe the buying demand is outpacing those new listings because the active inventory is falling fast. Now, now, let's check out home prices in Cleveland. I'm not shocked that this is coming down somewhat. I mean, it's $255,000. So, to most people in the US, they look at that and think, man, that's like super cheap for a home. But in Cleveland, it's at nearly an all-time high. I mean, just a few weeks ago, they peaked at $267,000. Now, they've come back down slightly, 255.
Our next stop on the East Coast swing is Tampa Bay. And this stat should make you fall off your chair if you're a housing nerd like me. New listings down 11% year-over-year. They've been falling for months and months. In fact, since April, there have been fewer and fewer sellers putting their homes on the market in Tampa Bay, and it's a 4-year low for this time of the year in Tampa Bay with new listings. I just can't believe it. At the same time, pending sales are down 3%. But what's a big big warning sign is the number of pending sales compared to new listings. Let me show you what I mean. Pending sales in Tampa Bay, 1,217 homes. Now look at new listings. 1,237 homes. So you barely added any inventory in Tampa Bay when you compare how many homes enter the market versus how many homes went into contract. Now some of those homes that go into contract won't actually close. We know that because people are walking away from homes almost at a historic rate when it comes to cancellations. However, let's check active listings and see how that's trending. This is not good. Not good at all. And quite frankly, a shock to me. Maybe it is you as well. Let me know what you think. But active inventory in Tampa Bay is up a poultry 4.4%. It's heading down. It may actually drop underneath 2024. That'll be hard to swallow for many, I believe, in the housing market that you may end up in 2025 at the end of this year with fewer homes on the market in Tampa Bay versus last year. Not sure anyone had that on their bingo card.
Now, we're looking at prices. Medium price $376,000 in Tampa Bay. And you can see it started the year at 377. So you are down year to date about a,000 bucks, but you're about flat year-over-year. So if you know the Florida market or you're just an observer of the housing market like me, let me know what you think. Do you think Tampa Bay will continue to lose listings? Do you think home prices will actually crash there at some point? So far, I'm not seeing it. But remember, this is just one area of Florida. There are many areas that are actually in pain.
Now, we're going to head up into the northeast area of the US. Now, this market overall, this whole region of the Northeast has been very resilient in the housing market. Not a lot of active listings, not a lot of new construction, and prices have continued to be elevated there. But are we actually seeing a crash in this market at all? Any signs of it? Let's look. Westchester County, New York. We're going to look instead of a metro level, we're looking at a county now. New listings are down. Are you ready for this? 8% year-over-year. Not a lot of people wanting to put their home on the market in Westchester County. No surprise, pending sales down 14%. And look at active listings. This one will shock you. Down 5%. Fewer homes on the market right now versus last year in Westchester County, New York. Now look at median sale price. $884,000, up 4% year-over-year. It's nearly an all-time high for that market in home prices. They started the year at $698, now 8.84. All these data points for Westchester County, New York, should be warning signs if you live there and you're wanting to buy a home anytime soon. It just doesn't look like you're going to have any type of explosion of inventory and prices are going to remain sticky, if not continue to go up based on what I'm seeing, but let me know what you think about New York.
Now, we're going to head out to Las Vegas. New listings are down 5% year-over-year. So, that's a big warning sign if you're looking to buy a home there because you want more and more new listings, not fewer. Now, active listings are still elevated, thank goodness, at 31% more than last year. But if you live there and you're looking to buy a home, I'd watch that number closely. And look at pending sales down 6.2%. So, you've got fewer people putting their home on the market and definitely fewer buyers out there. The problem is, and this another red flag if we haven't had enough already today, $451,000 is the median sale price. And that's up about 1% as all year. But the point is, folks, it hasn't crashed. I mean, shoot, the median sale price started at $436 at the beginning of this year, now $451,000. And I mean, that's really been flat all year, but it's not headed down in any type of trajectory.
Now, let's head out to SoCal, San Diego. New listings down 1.2% and fewer people buying a home than last year. Pending sales down 6% and active listings are falling now, but they're still up 19% year-over-year. So, you've got a few more people putting their homes on the market versus last year, but you still have a good amount of supply. The question is, are those homes that people actually want to buy or they just overpriced or do they need a ton of work? Now, the median sale price in San Diego $911,000, up about 1% year-over-year, but it hasn't crashed in San Diego. You can see it started at $878,000, now 911,000. Now, if you are really watching the housing market on YouTube, beware of this narrative. San Diego is actually down month over month. Meaning, if I look back about a month ago, we were at 925. Right now, 911. Prices have fallen month over month or over the last few months. But, have they dropped or crashed year-over-year? No, they haven't. So, when you're listening to somebody say, "Hey, home prices are falling in San Diego." It's like, well, they are versus a couple months ago, but this thing goes up and down like this. Overall, though, the trend is up versus last year, at least right now. But you tell me what you think. Will home prices completely crash in Southern California.
We're headed up to the Pacific Northwest, Seattle, Washington, down 3.6% in new listings. Are you noticing a theme? By the way, many metros we're looking at today have fewer new listings than they did last year. And many are like Seattle where pending sales are lower, down 8 12%. And just like a lot of other cities, active inventory is falling now 22% up year-over-year. So you are still elevated compared to last year, but you're starting to lose active inventory. You had 8,500 active homes on the market at one point about a month ago. Now you've got 8,200. I mean, have we seen any metro today at all where active listings are exploding up higher? Maybe Columbus, maybe Cleveland, we're seeing more active inventory like that. But most other areas, active listings are falling. And look at median sale price. Nearly an all-time high, $845,000, and that's up about 1% year-over-year. One of the things you should see in the housing market is that the year-over-year growth is shrinking. So that gap between last year and this year with home prices is not near as large as it has been over the past few years. And that's helping moderate pricing or rather price growth. But by no means has Seattle crashed. If you live in the Pacific Northwest, let me know what you think. Do you think prices will ever fall there meaningfully?
So here's the bottom line. The warning signs are clear. That combination of rising demand and lower supply, unfortunately, will keep home prices elevated. And I think that's what many people are missing right now. But the question is, how long will this standoff last before something gives? Drop your thoughts in the comments below. Do you think these lower mortgage rates will continue to increase demand, or will we see an explosion of supply and lower prices? And real estate's hyper local. So, let me know what's happening in your neck of the woods.
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