Transcription
Amplifying an unshakable bond in a turbulent international situation. Xiinping and Vladimir Putin hold talks in Beijing, their 40th meeting as president. What's the significance of the Russian leader's visit a week after Donald Trump was in the Chinese capital? This is Inside Story.
Hey there, I'm Scott Mlan. Over the years, China and Russia have described their relationship as a friendship without limits. Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing this week further emphasizes the strength of those ties. He and President Xiinping hailed their partnership as a force of calm among chaos. They also warned against a return to the law of the jungle, an apparent reference to Donald Trump's actions and policies, which include the war against Iran and sweeping global tariffs. Will the two leaders succeed in their push for a multipolar world, one in which the US does not dominate? How significant is Putin's trip to China a week after a much anticipated visit by the US president? We will raise these questions with our guest shortly, but first this report from Image and Kimber.
>> The leaders of the world's second largest economy and the world's second largest military meet in Beijing. Addressing media after talks, President Xiinping painted a grim picture of global order and stability.
>> The world today is far from peaceful with unilateralism and hegemonism posing profound dangers. The world faces the risk of regressing to the law of the jungle. My proposal to build a community with a shared future for mankind and the four global initiatives have received widespread support from the international community including Russia.
>> He said Russia and China have a responsibility to work together to build a more equitable global governance system. value.
>> As permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia must firmly fulfill their responsibilities as major powers, uphold the authority of the UN, and international fairness and justice, oppose all unilateral bullying.
>> President Vladimir Putin described the relations between the two nations as unshakable. It's 25 years since the signing of the CenoRussian Treaty of Friendship. Russian Chinese relations have reached an unprecedented level and continue to develop. Our relations are self-sufficient and do not depend on the current global situation. Annual trade was worth more than $200 billion in 2025, much of it in their own currencies. And this year, the Iran war, which has disrupted global energy supplies, has only strengthened that relationship. Russia and China are actively cooperating in the energy sector. Our country is one of the largest exporters of oil and natural gas, including liqufied natural gas, to China. We are, of course, ready to continue reliably supplying all these types of fuel to the rapidly growing Chinese market. China became Russia's top trading partner after the US and Europe sanctioned Russia in response to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. There has been much pomp and ceremony during Putin's trip, scenes similar to those a week ago when the US president was in the Chinese capital. Those talks began with a stern warning from Shei to Donald Trump and notably did not include any agreements. In contrast, she and Putin struck a friendly tone and signed dozens of deals on energy, transport, defense, and technology. Analysts say two visits time so close together sends a clear message to the US.
>> Image and Kimber Al Jazer for inside story.
>> All right, let's bring in our guests. Joining us from Beijing is Andy Mock, a geopolitical analyst and the author of the innovation machine, how China creates and adapts technology through governance. Pavle Deviatkin is in Moscow. He's a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and specializes in relations between the US, China, and Russia. And Alan Carlson is an associate professor in the department of government at Cornell University specializing in Chinese foreign policy. Thank you so much all for being here. Andy, we'll start with you. Two weeks ago, the Iranian foreign minister of Basaraki was in Beijing. Last week, President Trump was there. And now you have the Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with Xiinping. Is Beijing now the center of the diplomatic universe or is that title still reserved for Washington?
>> Well, Scott, I wouldn't say that Beijing is the center of the diplomatic universe, but what is very very important is that uh the main focus of reaction for Iran, for China, uh for Russia is the United States. So um and from the chi the Chinese view is that a strong Russia complicates the west. A weak Russia complicates China. A synchronized Russia, Iran and China complicates Washington. And one of the most important reasons uh President Putin is in Beijing today is not only for the agreements, not only for the pageantry, but for the human or the human intelligence that only President C can provide him because President C has just recently spent more than 2 hours one-on-one with President Trump. And I think this is invaluable information that will allow not only Iran, China, Russia, but also Pakistan as well. The prime minister will be arriving I believe next week uh for all of these countries to synchronize uh what is the best course of action to return to a more peaceful and stable world and away from this uh law of the jungle as has been described.
>> Pavo, do you agree with what Andy just said that uh President Xi is going to be spilling his private conversations with President Trump to President Putin?
>> Well, this week uh in Beijing has been one of the most consequential uh diplomatic moments of the year. You know, we're we're seeing how China has hosted the leaders of the US and Russia in one week. Uh and this shows, you know, Beijing's self-positioning as an indispensable interlocutor in the current global order. And of course, China's also hosted meetings with the other P5 member states. So, the you know, president of France, the prime minister of the UK. So definitely China is demonstrating that it can be a convening power. But when it comes to its relations with Russia, uh you know we have heard confirmation from the Kremlin uh from Dmitri Pascal, the Kremlin spokesperson that Putin will be interested in hearing what Trump and Xi Jinping discussed regarding Ukraine specifically. Uh but for this for this uh meeting for Putin, this visit is formally tied to uh the the co uh the 25th anniversary of the treaty of good neighborliness and friendly cooperation between the two countries. So this is not just a routine diplomatic visit, but you know um a lot of deals and economic negotiations will also be going on between the two countries.
>> I love the title of that treaty. By the way, uh, Professor Carlson, before uh, the election in 2024, actually just a few days before that election, President Trump said on the campaign trail, I I'll quote it. He said, "Biden united them. It's a shame the stupidity of what they've done. I'm going to have to ununite them. We've allowed them to get together. It's such a dangerous thing." Obviously, he's talking about the China Russia relationship. Do you think that President Trump as president has made the same mistake in through war and sanctions pushing Russia and China together?
>> To a degree, yes. Um, but I think it's important to note that there are some limits to the extent to which uh Russia and China will deepen their relationship. Economically, it's obviously a really asymmetrical relationship. China being an economic superpower. Russia not so much so. and largely dependent on national natural gas and oil exports. Um and in that regard uh Putin uh and Moscow need she and Beijing much more than uh she needs him. Uh and there I think while certainly it's it appears that Beijing has become the center of the diplomatic universe echoing what the other panelists have said um in terms of of China actually being a power broker on the world stage I'm I'm not entirely sure that that has uh occurred and unfolded quite yet. I think what America does uh still matters a great deal uh regardless of Biden's president or Trump. So at this meeting uh President Xi said that unilateral hedgeimonyy is running rampant and he said this about Russia and China's new role in the world. Listen.
>> China and Russia must firmly fulfill their responsibilities as major powers. Uphold the authority of the UN and international fairness and justice. Oppose all unilateral bullying and acts that reverse the course of history. and especially oppose all provocative acts that deny the achievements of the victory in World War II and attempt to rehabilitate fascism and militarism. We must jointly promote the building of a more just and equitable global governance system.
>> Andy, please help me understand how we got to this point where the leaders of two rather authoritarian states are holding themselves up as the north star for fairness and equality.
>> Well, Scott, I mean, I think this uh your question definitely shows the uh the framing that has been I think part of the global discourse uh mostly uh for the worse uh in that I think China at least China uh has been a uh committed consistent uh country in upholding uh the multilateral global order especially through institutions like the United Nations. So I think there's nothing new here and one of the hallmarks I think of China's foreign policy uh is predictability, stability as well as a commitment to uh respect for mutual sovereignty.
>> Pavl I want to play for you what the Russian president Vladimir Putin said about Chinese Russia relations. Listen.
>> Most importantly, Russia and China are committed to an independent and sovereign foreign policy, working together in close strategic cooperation and playing an important stabilizing role on the global stage. We are working together for peace and global prosperity.
>> Pavle, do you think that peace and global prosperity is really Russia's goal here?
>> Well, definitely there are a lot of common interests between Russia and China. Uh, and especially since the conflict in Ukraine, we've seen how Western sanctions um have led to Russia being increasingly dependent on China um as its primary export market uh technology supplier um and also when it comes to the diplomatic situation as Andy said, you know, the the commitments to multilateralism, the international system, the UN system. Uh but of course you know the relationship is not one-sided. You know China gets real and substantial things from Russia as well. It gets discounted energy oil and gas prices you know um at prices well below the market level. Um so and also of course there's you know alignment on the construction of a multipolar order that reduces Washington's ability to dictate global rules unilaterally. There of course you know common interests in resolving the war in Ukraine in Iran. Um so yes, Russia needs China um but China also needs Russia and I think this relationship where the focus on multilateralism, the UN system is something that will be of discussion uh in Beijing.
>> Professor Carlson, Andy and Pavle are describing a world where China looks like the one committed to sort of the international rules-based order that the US likes to quote so much. Is this the new world that we live in? one where China is the north star of normaly and the United States is looking increasingly sort of erratic.
>> The United States does look erratic. I think we need to be careful before we put China in the role of a defender of some sort of multilateral uh international order uh which is peaceful and stable. And I want to come back around to thinking about this relationship with Russia and China and noting that pretty much everyone is behaving badly on the world stage these days. Uh with Russia obviously we can think about Ukraine. Uh with the United States, Iran, a number of other places and with China, let's let's be honest. Um its approach to Taiwan has raised concerns not only on the island uh but across East Asia and it sits really prominently in the USChina relationship. And last week while she basically kind of asserted that uh troubles with Taiwan would be a result of American interference. I think that's a vast oversimplification of the relationship across the Taiwan Straits. Uh and I think it at least puts a very big asterisk next to China's uh sort of self-desated role as a peacekeeper in world politics.
>> Andy, do you agree with that?
>> Uh no, I don't. I mean you know and obviously um you know it's uh it it's not really much to argue about in the sense that you know China again is is completely clear. The fact is that Taiwan is a part of China. Uh this is the most vital core of China's core interests. Uh so there's nothing new here and this is actually the foundation of the China US relationship and I would say too that um you know China I don't think is selfappointed in the sense of uh becoming a pro being a protector of the global order. Uh you know, China certainly uh has been very very active in looking to uh end the conflict in Iran, especially with its recent fivepoint peace plan uh proposed with Pakistan. And again, I think the fact that the Iranian foreign minister uh Trump Putin and then next the Pakistan prime minister uh will be coming to Beijing to discuss precisely how to solve this conflict. And I think what China is doing is it's recognized that um it is not just a factory to the world but when the strait becomes part of your factory you do have to have some sort of security uh solution or a proposal but it's nothing like the United States has approached it and I think what uh China really is doing here is coordinating uh bringing in the key players Russia Iran and Pakistan uh as the operating partner because of its geographical ical location as well as its strategic ties to China.
>> Andy, I just I just want to challenge you on this because you're right that President Xi has called for dialogue and talks between Russia and Ukraine to try to get that war ended, but he's never also really condemned Moscow for starting that war in the first place. So, I mean, does China really have a leg to stand on here in, you know, promoting itself as this sort of great global peacemaker or is it just promoting its own interests? Because does China does it matter to China whether that war keeps going? I mean, Russia will just keep buying components for for weaponry from from China as long as that continues, right?
>> Well, China certainly does not have a leg to stand on, Scott, if you take it again from this very biased western framing of the situation. Uh so I think again China uh has not condemned Russia. It has said this is a conflict that again should be resolved peacefully through consultation uh respect for mutual sovereignty. Uh so this uh I guess red herring I suppose we could call it of saying that China has not condemned Russia really is is irrelevant to this situation.
>> Pavl, I want to ask you about the timing of this meeting because only a day before this trip, uh, a Chineseowned cargo ship with all Chinese crew headed for the port of Odessa in southern Ukraine was actually hit by a Russian drone. Um, I have not heard mention of this during this meeting and I wonder if China is sort of positioning itself as the unofficial leader of polite society now, should they not at least forcefully say to Moscow, enough is enough. You can't be drone striking civilian vessels.
>> Well, this is definitely one of the central tensions of this story and you know there are many other tensions in the Russia China relationship. We saw you know the pause of China on purchases of Russian seaborn oil. Uh of course as Andy mentioned you know how China's refrain from condemning the uh the war uh and has described his position as as balanced. Um but you know the ideal peace broker uh and you know I would support China's role in brokering peace in mediating in acting as a back channel a very crucial back channel between the US and Russia. Uh you know the ideal peace broker um doesn't necessarily have to be neutral but rather trusted by all parties uh and shouldn't have a skin in the game. Um you know the broker you know the ideal broker doesn't really exist uh but the situation that we're having where people are dying and uh you know civilians are dying uh it it we need to get away from this situation and and have some kind of uh a mediation between the US and Russia and if if um if Xi Jinping has the ear of both presidents Putin and Trump then perhaps this could be a um um a venue for some kind of mediation.
>> Professor Carlson Um, Russia and China have resolved to expand their joint military drills. Do you think that this will raise alarm bells in Washington?
>> Um, I think there's a lot of alarm bells going off in Washington and I just want to come back around to what um, Pavlov and Andy were talking about in that the world has become exceedingly turbulent over the last couple of years and anything that lends stability in that situation I think is going to be welcome in all corners. The question though is really if Beijing uh Moscow and Washington are working for stability or working in what they perceive as their own national interest. And certainly interest probably takes a precedence over anything else. And to a degree interests align maybe right now between Moscow and Beijing. Washington may be kind of in a more adversarial relationship with both China and Russia. Um but again, America remains the the world's kind of dominant power. Uh and to a certain extent I think both China and Russia are maneuvering off of what's coming out of Washington and the difficulty is the unpredictability then that comes with this administration and how to respond to it.
>> Do you think that maybe Washington has done Beijing a favor by sanctioning Russia, sanctioning Iran because China is the biggest buyer of energy from both Russia and Iran. So seems like the byproduct that of that conveniently is discounted energy prices for Beijing.
>> Unintended consequences abound in today's world. Uh again with so much up in the air, dominoes are falling every sort of which way. And I think what you see over the past two weeks is three leaders of major powers all trying to both kind of protect their own interest and do what they feel is best for their own countries. And whether that results in greater peace and stability uh remains to be seen.
>> Uh Andy, there's talk at this summit of this uh Power of Siberia 2 na natural gas pipeline. It's not built yet. They are still figuring out the details of of pricing and and and how to build it and by whom. But if that does get built, I wonder if that will forever cement the relationship between Russia and and China and sort of make them codependent on one another more so than they already are perhaps.
>> Well, Scott, I would say that China and Russia already have a very powerfully complimentary relationship, but I want to go back to this earlier point very briefly about the US being a world power uh still a world power. So the view on the ground here in Beijing is that institutional elites already have concluded before President's Trump visit that he has led the United States into its Hormuz moment which is not unlike uh what happened to Britain at Suez in 1956 in that they delivered a crushing military defeat and yet lost the strategic war. And I think this is uh again the conclusion uh among institutional elites here in Beijing and I think increasingly in other parts of the world. And one of the uh the thoughts or I guess uh interpretations uh going around Beijing as well is that when King Charles visited President Trump and gifted him a bell uh that was seen also as a very subtle message because uh giving a bell in Chinese uh has another meaning. Means to attend to the dying. So, and the British are not unknown for these kind of uh very subtle uh ways of communicating unpleasant messages.
>> Professor Carlson, your response.
>> Yeah, I mean the British culture is not the same as Chinese culture any so it would be kind of next level if if the king was thinking along those lines. But I think symbolically it may represent something and I think you're on to something which is kind of what both America's reputation is worldwide and what its actual capabilities are and how those may have been degregated by ongoing conflict challenges to the American economy instability within American politics. So there again there's a lot at play here.
>> Pavo, I want to just ask you about something that Andy said, saying that the relationship between China and Russia is already complimentary. But actually, candidate Trump back in 2024 said that China and Russia were natural enemies because in his explanation at least, China will need more land for its population and Russia has that land. Who's right?
>> Uh well, you know, definitely um you know, the the the relationship between Russia and China, you know, have had its ups and downs. Uh we've seen uh you know, the Sino Soviet split. Uh we've seen ups and downs in their in their relations. Um but definitely I think this you know summit and the the agreements are going to come out of it and that that that uh span economic cooperation, cultural cooperation are definitely evidence that relations between Russia and China are definitely at at a high uh and you know questions of of territory of of uh you know historical um problems in the relationship perhaps that's something that uh is much more popular among Western commentators. And when speaking with people in Russia and China uh aren't thinking so much about this but rather about you know complimentarity in interests uh mutual threats uh so we've seen also the uh joint statement that's uh coming out from this meeting uh discussing the uh the threat of of a US um plans for a golden dome missile defense of course a common stance on the war against Iran and so on So, uh, perhaps there's a lot more in common between Russia and China than per than, um, than what, uh, candidate Trump might have said.
>> Professor Carlson, much of China and Russia's trade today is actually settled in Chinese yuan or Russian rubles. And I just want to read you one more thing from what President Trump said in 2024. He said, "We're losing the dollar as the standard because of these people. If we lose the dollar as the standard, that's like losing a war, and it will never happen with me." Do you think that President Trump has contributed to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency maybe looking a bit shakier than it did years ago?
>> Yeah, the decline of the dollar predates uh this administration.
>> You don't think done anything to contribute to it though?
>> I mean I think let's be real. It remains the currency uh which is used around the globe. Um and also taking note of the fact that while Chinese Russian trade is significant, uh trade with the United States from China is double that amount. Um so while again I'm not trying to say that there isn't an important dynamic that's unfolding uh between China and Russia, I think the USChina bilateral relationship remains the most important one in the world. And part of that has to do with America's position in the global economy. Even if there are questions about the kind of durability of the dominance of the US in the global economy as China has pulled up uh equal to and in some ways surpassing the US on certain vectors.
>> Andy M I'll let you respond to that. Do you think that President Trump has contributed to the increasing ddollarization of the global economy?
>> Well, I think you know decisions made by any administration can certainly have an impact on the attractiveness of holding dollars uh in the short term and certainly in the long term as well. But I think it's important to point out that you know I think China has no interest in displacing the dollar but it is very very keen to insulate itself from the weaponization uh of the global financial system which is not just the dollar but also the swift payment system uh and I think as long as it is able to do that and again I think it's making uh very significant progress in this area not just with Russia uh Saudi Arabia as well in terms of oil and we shouldn't forget that really this dollar hegemony uh was put in place through the uh petro dollar agreement with the Saudis back in the Nixon administration. So I think as long as uh China feels it is safe from uh these kinds of uh financial system attacks you know I think it's probably indifferent about uh which is the quote unquote global currency.
>> Yeah, gentlemen, it's a fascinating conversation. I really wish we had more time. We'll have to leave it there. Our thanks again to our guests Andy McK Pavl Deviatkin and Alan Carlson. And thank you too for watching. You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website aljazier.com. And for further discussion, go to our Facebook page. That's facebook.com/j insidetory. You can also join the conversation on X. Our handle is AJ inside. For now, that's it for me. Scott Mlan and the entire team here in Doha. Aler's coverage continues in a moment. Stay tuned.