Transcription
It's been a long time since I've seen Nvidia get overshadowed after earnings, but it certainly did today with some of the news that came out and what the government is investing in now. We have to go over that and what is going on with oil.
I want to go through the basics first here. Obviously, we have a higher high on the day after forming this little downward trend line and breaking out of it. Let's look at the breath. Now, to be clear, what we're looking at here is from Wednesday. So, we're still waiting for today's, but we all know that the breath got better today just because it was a broad-based rally, and we're going to address this. But I just want to go through the 200, the 50, the 20, and the five because there's some details here that are super important, specifically with what happened with the five today and with the 50. So, let's get to it.
Subscribe, click all notification. Very important because it helps me greatly with the algorithm. Important for you because all these videos are linked together and I don't want you to miss one. Let's get to it. So, for those that are newer, we start on Saturdays and then we run through the week and so you'll see the deep dives on Saturdays and then it kind of carries through.
What I really want to focus on here is I want to focus on the 50 to start and then we're going to get to the five. And by the 50, this is percent above the 50-day moving average. So, if we take a look here, we can see that you are at that 52. But I think there's a little bit here that we really want to address. And we can see that level right here that we held up, down, up, and then a higher high. And so we do have a nice move right in here.
Now, if we take this down to here for a second, and we look where we're at, right here on the low, and then we look over here, you're going to notice that you have a divergence on movement. And I think that's important for us to note. So, I don't usually get that specific, but on the 50% line, I think you have to I think you have to pay attention to it. So, when we're there and when we're fighting that 50% cuz when you're below that, that's when you really have a problem. It made our life super easy from a trading standpoint because now all we have to do is just mark off that bottom here and we know that if we break this level that then all of a sudden that we're going to have a bigger problem.
So, we don't know what, you know, how this always plays out. We always have to realize that we're always just assessing, right? But when up down up and then we can just mark off that and that gives us that low. So that would be what even if it think of it as a stock and that would be your stop on the way up and that would be your break. And I think that's very important for us to note and I also think it's really important for us to note that all that happened why the S&P was dropping which gives us that divergence and actually gives us and solidifies that bottom. And I do think that you're there. I do think so the way we're acting right now, but you have a lot of overnight news here and what's going on with oil and will they won't they, you know, who's going to get a rose, all of that and we'll get to it.
But if we look at the five, what I really like is the fact that the five is absolutely pushing and setting up to break out. Yet at the same time, you don't see us all the way up here. So it's not that we're frothy on the five, it's that we're broadening out on the five. You can see this a little bit already on what you're seeing with the 20s. For example, if you start to just draw it out this way and come across, you'll see that same divergence right here. But more importantly on the five, it's broadening out. So basically what we're seeing is not only from a sector standpoint, but from just every name is starting to get back above their 5-day moving average. You don't want to be in the absolute frothy territory because you can't stay there very long. But if you can get into these areas where you start to see that you're kind of going sideways and you're in that 50, 60, 70 level, that's really where you want to be. And then you just kind of get the waves associated with it. The more you play with this, the more you'll start seeing the patterns.
Now also, we have seen that the NDFI is also staying above that 50 and never broke. And while we don't really have a divergence here at all, what we do have is we have a level of 50% that's held the whole time. We still have this double top and this is NDX 100 above the 50-day moving average. If we throw this over and take a look at the NDX and throw this into candlesticks, we can see and solidify where that bottom is. And again, it's not rocket science, but if we did something as simplistic as just before we get into the names, which I think we should spend some time on, there's your 12-day. I use a 12 instead of a 10. Here's the 22. You never even got near it. So, you never even really had a concern here or anything like that we'd have to really concern ourselves with like at all. A matter of fact, when you start really looking at what's transpired, you realize that you have the second or third highest close on the NDX that you've ever had. And this drop when we really get into it is not really that much that we have to concern ourselves with. It was a 4% drop from the high. It was literally nothing. It was a drop for ants.
And what we have to do with this is understand why the earnings are absolutely fantastic out there and I think they're going to remain that way for a period of time. I don't really know what's going to change that. If you look at Nvidia, this was super interesting because Nvidia tends not to do this. It tends to really fall apart and on earnings. And if we go and take a look at this from a bare perspective and we'll drop it to the open, high, low, close bars, and you can see that even with beating, it just absolutely just implodes. This time we really didn't do that. It's not a a great move, but you stayed inside the range. You tend not to do that when you start looking at these bars and what happens here. And usually you just kind of have this just absolute implosion. I think this one was pretty limp for the beginning and then just absolutely imploded. And you can just go look and take a look at them. I think it was seven quarters in a row. It was literally the same trade over and over again. You just would sell the earnings.
What do I think's going on here? I think that this was a pretty big beat. I think that the gross margins were absolutely through the roof. If you take a look at how this played out off the open, it really wasn't that hard to see. But what we're going to do is we're going to get rid of the pre and the post for a second and just take a look at this. So, we're going to mark off this high. And then from there, we're going to mark off just the low. And you can kind of get a sense of the range. Then after that, you can just see we broke down and we just sat there. And after the first 45 minutes and breaking down, you were in literally about a point and a half all day long. It's very rare for this name. If we overlay this with the pre and the post, you'll see we just got back to the highs. They shorted the highs. When we got back down to this low area, you really couldn't break. You could not get into that area. And I think that's super important. Names acted as you would expect them to act on that call. We did this live last night. We're actually trading on it.
But I do think it's interesting. Let's get rid of the pre and the post here for a second. When we look at something like an AMD, I think it's super interesting that it blew it off because they're really going after that CPU business, but they could have cared less. They completely utterly blew it off today after being down to the 432 level. And I think that's really important as well because they're looking at this and saying, "Okay, you're going to get stronger in the CPU business, but it really doesn't matter because there's that much demand, right?" And everybody has a different way that they're going to look at the market right now. So again, to me, that's really very important for us to take away from this.
If we overlay this with some simple things like looking at Intel, what did Intel do? Well, Intel pretty much did what? It got back to the previous close and then stopped. So, what I'm doing here is just using open, high, low, close, and just showing you we got back to those levels. Did a couple really neat undercuts today and went from there. But the big winner was ARM. And we went through this actually live last night when we were trading and we went through it in detail. But the big winner really was ARM because it made it very clear that when third quarter rolls around, they're going to partner with them. So last night when we were doing this live, we were on the call and let me just I'll grab a couple of the timestamps. So once Jensen started speaking, the stock started moving a lot better, Nvidia, but it became very clear that they're trying to participate in the CPU movement. So I bought a position in that yesterday around 530. And then from there, what really got me about this was I don't think people understood that's why AMD was so weak off the open. Also why Intel was so weak off the open and that happens. It doesn't mean that they're in trouble, but it does mean that you're getting to a point that you're, you know, you're getting to competition and that's what we were trying to solidify last night like, hey guys, you have an issue. You're going to have competition and it really benefited them and that's why ARM outperformed today. Once you know those nuances and then you know the devil's always in the details, specifically when you're dealing with conference calls, the more you listen to these conference calls, the better you're going to get at them. And you can just see us looking at it last night. It's like 262 or something this morning actually. And then we just did more trades in it again with day trades. And candidly, I'm still in it, but I've been in and out. And I got stopped out of a partial a little earlier today on a little juke move right here where it undercut and why did it do that?
You know, we're going to have to talk about what's going on with Iran going into a 3-day weekend. I'll cover it on Saturday in greater detail, but you have a lot going on there and we'll talk about it in regards to oil in a second here, but I really want to get some of these themes down. So with Nvidia getting into that, ARM is going to be one of those names that you're starting to see a lot of action in clearly and it's been ripping and you have some names that have been out there for some time that are now all of a sudden really starting to participate like ALAB. All of a sudden this thing's up, you know, from 206 to about 303 days after that JP Morgan Tech Conference. Some of these suckers are really getting going for lack of a better term. I think ARM when people start to understand what it's really going to do for them, it makes sense. Now, this is a huge move in a very short period of time going into a three-day weekend. So, that is something that we have to really, you know, focus on and try to wrap our noodle around. How much risk do we really want to have, etc. But please understand that you're starting to see a change in the way that Nvidia is going to segment their business. And I do think that that's going to follow through.
You would think that would be the biggest thing that we have to go over today, but obviously there was bigger news today and we should talk about this because it starts with IBM and a lot of people saw this cash injection of IBM by the government where they're going to put a billion dollars into the company. Well, it's not that they're funding and just giving them a billion dollars. They're putting a billion dollars into the company. IBM is taking another billion dollars and they're creating a company that's going to be a foundry that's going to make quantum chips. So the money one comes with certain requirements. But most importantly about moves like this is IBM is creating a foundry for quant for quantum computing. This is absolutely huge and I think that part of it was lost on a lot of people and that's why it moved the way that it did.
Ken, I was so ingratiated with the memory moves and what was going on with Micron and we have to should talk about that as well with the strike but that I really wasn't focused on anything else but Nvidia. I didn't really expect to come in and have to deal with another tech thing today and you had two really big ones that and also SpaceX. So when we saw that I would watch that name tomorrow. You might want to pay attention to it but also you're seeing these suckers jump around a little bit. QBTS actually over that 25 level, the gamma wall flips there. So 30 is probably a hop, skip, and a jump. And the interesting thing about these companies is everyone's sitting around waiting for them to to come out and do secondaries tonight. But, you know, when the government gives you $300 million, you pretty much don't have to do a secondary, do you? So, I think that was lost on a lot of people. And I think that's one of the reasons why these names are moving the way that they are right now. I do think there's something to that. I do think you want to see followthrough tomorrow or you will see follow through tomorrow. But that whole quantum space and that injection of capital if you were short you were not really expecting that.
I did think it was interesting that they didn't do anything with NQ considering that OQ actually owns Sky T or they're they're setting up to merge with Sky T which you can see what that's doing right now as that merger gets closer and that's breaking out. What's so interesting about that is it's US-owned, US operated. It's the only US-owned, US operated foundry. If you go and take a look at their capital injection, and I did buy GFS today, but if you take a look at GFS, and I again, super interesting that they did this, that they're injecting capital like this in the company, but GFS is US-owned, US operated, but you really have another owner out there, UAE, because it's spun off from AMD. So, it's not as clean as being US-owned as Sky Tea is. And you would think with the quantum space that would be something that would be a concern, but I don't know. I really interested why they passed here. Super interested to try to hear what people either think about that or, you know, why they would why they couldn't strike a deal or what the issue is there because of all the ones to buy, I mean, you're injecting into RGTI, I mean, the company does $4 million a quarter. INQ is buying a real company. You start taking a look at it. They're doing real revenue. There's real business here. Like it's to me it would be a no-brainer, but you know, there I go again thinking.
So, and then we should just talk about as a little bit here. You are above that 55. You did break out above it and you've been pushing ever since. And I do think that that's super important for us to get. Why do I think it's important or why do I care about this? I care about this because when they're looking at SpaceX and the S1, which is the financial statement that came out, they're saying to themselves, okay, this is cheap relative and you can see how you acted today. What I really like today intraday, if we just go take a look at this, go into that level, these pullbacks were bought super aggressively. So when we had the Iran, are we done, are we not done, and they pulled back and we had that sell that quick selloff, they bought this and they bought this fast. I thought that was super interesting. Also, down here this morning, once you undercut that low and that open, you were down there for a full minute and then from there you just ripped and it set set the stage. I thought you had a shot at 100 today, but no, I could, you know, cuz you don't have a lot between 95 and 100 in the option market, which was kind of interesting.
Rocket Labs is doing a secondary. So, that secondary came back down here. It's at the money. So, we'll see how this goes. But I don't really blame them for raising capital right now. They have the demand. Why wouldn't you do it when you have the demand and you can see that level right in here. I'm trying to get more micro because you're going into a 3-day weekend. So the more micro names, you know, the more and then we can get more broad-based on Saturday for our Saturday deep dive. But when I look at something like this again, you really came down to these levels and you held and I don't really see a problem with that.
Samsung that strike ended and you saw EWY lift on that news. What was really good about this obviously because Samsung and SKH Highix are 48% of that. But what was really interesting was our swing in Micron kept lifting which was really nice. Obviously that's better and SanDisk. You would think that you would have sold off on that but you did the exact opposite. Now that could be because of Nvidia's comments about CPU and the demand for CPU last night. That could be one of the reasons why we're seeing that. So, it's definitely something for us. Again, we're going to see tomorrow how much follow-through you get going into a 3-day weekend. I would watch oil tomorrow for sure. The Iran has stated very clearly they're not giving up their nuclear uranium. And at the same time, the US says there's no deal without it. We're going back and forth. At the same time, you saw 31 ships go through. So, with that level of ships going through, it's becoming pretty clear that as they go back and forth, they're coming up with something. And whatever that something see comes out with, you know, we'll go from there. But I would think over the three-day weekend, people are going to want to be as flat as humanly possible. But then you're going to have risk because if they decide something or if something comes together over the weekend, you know, people are going to be out of position coming into Tuesday.
My bet is to watch the quantum names tomorrow because when everybody comes home and they're done work and they look at the market, these are the names they're going to see and they're going to see that the government's injecting capital into these companies uh and then they're going to chase them. And I really think so if when people really sit down with IBM and they take a look at this, I think that it makes a lot of sense. But also because it's so cheap.
Also, for those that are trying to get in, please that are on the wait list links in description and also I pinned the comment to get on the wait list. Just check your email if you're on there because I'm going to send out a large batch which you have about 24 hours left to get in from when you were invited a couple days ago. That's it.