Transcription
So, the market crash we were supposed to get today ended up being a fake out based off of one tweet sent by President Donald Trump. So, we're going to dive into that. Where I think the market's headed and how to best be prepared for things like these where our president could send out a tweet that will send the market, you know, 3 and a half% down or more. And I want to show you how to be prepared for that to take advantage of those opportunities. And also I'm going to dive into three stocks that I'm doubling down on going into October and November of 2025. So, let's go ahead and jump into it.
Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. Now, if we take a look at the account, we could see that we are near all-time highs in the account and the market isn't quite there. So, if you do want to follow me along this journey, my 8-figure journey, be sure to be subscribed by clicking the subscribe button down below this video. And if you enjoy this video or you get any value out of it, please hit the thumbs up button for me. I would greatly appreciate that and I appreciate you being here supporting the channel. But let's go ahead and dive straight into it.
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Okay, President Donald Trump said, "Don't worry about China. It will all be fine. Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn't want depression for his country, and neither do I. The USA wants to help China, not hurt it." President Donald J. Trump. So, this definitely sent the futures market up yesterday. Bitcoin was rebounding. Ethereum was rebounding, which tells us that the risk is back on. And I'm going to kind of go over where I think this market is going after all of this volatility.
Okay, if we look at the macro perspective, all right, we're looking at the CME Fed Watch tool, which shows us the rate cut odds. We're for sure getting a rate cut in October, as you can see, 98%. We're for sure getting one in December, 95%. And it looks like we're for sure getting one in March of 2026, which is at a 97% probability. So, three rate cuts on the way, a potential two more after that into next year, which shows me that hey, businesses could borrow at cheaper rates, consumers can borrow at cheaper rates, which ends up pouring more liquidity into the equities market, right? Businesses and consumers are doing better when rates are cheaper. So, this is telling me that, hey, this can fuel a pretty nice size rally, especially because, you know, Friday's crash or, you know, little pullback, not a crash, really shook out a lot of the weak hands and it really showed, you know, who's there ready to buy.
Okay, so if we look at the headlines today, Oracle CEO says they could pay OpenAI $60 billion a year, right? Um, if we look at some of the high-flyer stocks that I don't trade that have negative earnings but are going up, you know, these companies have negative earnings, they don't earn anything. They don't turn a profit and they're up, you know, QBTS up 21%. Olo up 18%. SMR up 16%, right? BBAI up 24%. We do not see this type of action in a bare market or, um, you know, pre-crash, right? This is not the type of action we see from, okay, we're down three and a half% after hours, 4% on QQQ on Friday, right? And then on Monday, people are jumping back into these stocks. So, this right here is very, very bullish action. When people are this confident to be going into companies that don't have earnings, um, and just keep buying these things, this tells me that hey, the market has a lot of confidence. There's definitely some greed in the markets, but this is where we need to be careful and really select the correct stock.
So, I'm going to dive into that. I'm going to dive into the three stocks that I'm selecting and kind of where I think QQQ is going from here. So, we're looking at QQQ, which tracks the NASDAQ 100. We're currently at 602. So, we're, you know, from all-time highs. Okay, let's kind of take a price range from here. Uh, we are about down 1.8%. All right. Now, if we close here today, which it looks like we are, we close in 14 minutes of filming this video, um, you could expect probably that we break this back above this 603 and we just kind of rally, you know, have this steady grind upwards. All right, back to that 620 area that I'm kind of eyeing for potentially the beginning of November. So, really, we're in a very, very nice bull market, steady uptrend. I was hoping for a bigger pullback. I was hoping for at least that 5 to 7% area and potentially even that 10% area to really go heavy. But, okay, I'm going to show you exactly how to not miss out on those opportunities while still, uh, you know, being deployed and staying, you know, semi-safe.
So, for me, what I like to look at is VIX. Okay, VIX popped above 22. So, that told me, hey, I could allocate more cash as the fear is increasing. All right, but I'm going to show you my VIX cash allocation levels. So, these are the VIX levels that I follow which allows me to have money invested but also have cash on the side just in case we do get a crash, right? And, you know, we were trading between, uh, VIX 20 and 25 back on, uh, Friday, and essentially I had around 15% of cash, I believe it was 16%. So, I was staying a little bit more on the conservative end, right? But I still had cash, enough cash on the side that if we did dip down today, you know, negative 5%, negative 7%, I would have money to deploy and take advantage while staying pretty invested, right? I had 16% in cash. So, I was 84% of my cash was currently invested generating me premiums. Okay.
So, now that we're back between VIX 15 and 20, um, essentially I could be 20 to 25% cash. Now, I'm not right now. I actually lowered my cash to 12% in anticipation of this market kind of grinding back upwards. Now, I could take off positions at any moment and be ready for another potential drawdown, but I don't think we're going to get that. Okay. Um, you know, QQQ is holding these levels. VIX is now kind of, uh, you know, trending back downwards, and that's typically what we see, right? When VIX spikes, if you look back here, we spiked up to around the same level in August. All right, and then the VIX slowly bled off. Okay. And that's what we see with fear. Fear spikes and then it subsides. And that's probably what we're going to see, um, most likely, right? Most likely. And what will keep me safe is again, following those VIX cash allocation levels. So, in the next week or so, I will up my cash back up to 20%. Um, but I want to kind of go over the positions that I went heavier in today because some of them expire next week.
So, the first one is going to be Celestica. So, Celestica launched two data center switches to cater to the evolving demands of the AI networking, doubling the switch capacity of its existing market-leading 800G solution. So, they released two products today, which is great, and we saw the stock go up, okay, about 6% today. All right, making new all-time highs. This is one of the strongest stocks in the portfolio. The trend is beautiful on this stock. Upward trending, very beautiful chart, uh, great premiums, and the greatest part about this company is not only is it serving the AI sector, it makes some of the hardware, the switches, the components for data centers, right? But the PE ratio is at 55, which is pretty low. Okay. Um, so I like this stock considering how big the premiums are in the options. So, I'm going to go over an earnings play for this particular stock that I'm participating in that is paying out very decent premiums.
But first, remember this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. We're going to go to the account. And as you can see, my current CLS position is larger than it ever has been. $132,500 in cash secured puts. If we go into the stock, you could see I have the 225s, the 220 puts, and the 210 puts for October 31st, which is earnings week. So, how to play this stock? Instead of just buying the stock here at 259, what I like to do is sell a cash secured put that's well below where the stock's trading. And if it ever goes down there, I'll go ahead and buy the shares and I'll get paid to dollar cost average.
So, what I'm going to go do is go to the options chain. As you can see, earnings week October 31st. There's a little light bulb here. Okay. Implied volatility is 99% plus or minus $46 move. So, this thing could go all the way down to what is that? Uh, 214 potentially on the downside. And on the upside, this thing could go all the way to $30. Okay, that's what the market makers are pricing in. So, we're going to go to the options chain. And what I did was I went all the way down here, okay, to the 220 strike, which is the 20 delta. So, there's only a 20% chance of me getting assigned on this stock, meaning the stock is going to go below 220 and I have to buy 100 shares. Okay. Um, and I'm getting paid out. Okay, let's take a look. I'm getting paid out around $700 in premium, which is a potential 3.36% ROI in 18 days. Now, results vary based off where the stock's at, but that's a very safe return for me. I really like that return. So, I go to the 220 and I'm fine grabbing that stock at 220. Worst case scenario, the reason I chose that strike is that is because that's kind of where it gapped up from back in September, early September. Okay? And from where it's at now, all right, I'm going to show you how far it has to go down. It basically has to go down a good 15% for me to get assigned on expiration week. So, and I get paid to dollar cost average. So, that's great. If I grab it at that price, awesome. Great discount and I'll ride the stock back up, but good chances are that it doesn't go down there. Maybe the earnings aren't as good as we thought, but I think the earnings are going to be pretty significant. Um, especially because of all the partnerships they have with all these companies making all the hardware for AI data centers. All right, so CLS is one of my favorite plays in the portfolio and very good premiums. Okay, so that's the first one that I'm really doubling down on.
Another one I doubled down on today was actually Hood. Now, I didn't grab the leaps. I don't quite feel comfortable buying leaps call options or call options on Hood because I don't know if this thing is going to kind of trickle downwards even more or just trade kind of choppy and sideways and, you know, while this stock trades choppy and sideways, if you have a call option, right, those call options are decaying every day that goes by. So, for me, I said, "Hey, there's a lot of implied volatility and premium in the options, so I'm just going to go ahead and sell some safe cash secured puts, and if I get assigned, great. I got the stock at a discount." So, um, you know, this stock long-term, I believe, is a $200 stock. That's just my opinion on it. Uh, PE ratio is a little bit higher, 71, but, you know, with all of the avenues that they are diving into such as, uh, equities that are tokenized, uh, what else? Sports betting and predictions markets and Layer 2 blockchain. I mean, I think this stock has a lot of room to run. So, but in the meantime, I may be wrong. So, I want to make sure that I'm at least getting paid a premium, um, if I am wrong.
So, what I'm doing on this stock is, let's go to the portfolio. You'll see I upped the position today. It's actually the largest position in my portfolio, um, right above SoFi. So, I have $190,000 in cash secured puts. And you'll see that I'm pretty much going to a similar strike price, um, one week before earnings. So, earnings is November 7th, and I'm going to play earnings, but I'm also trying to take advantage of the week before earnings so I could play earnings right after. Um, I sold a lot of 127 puts and a 129 put to collect about $4,000 in premium. So, what I did, I went to the options chain and this is my play. I'm going to play October 31st and once those expire worthless, collect all that premium and I could reallocate towards earnings. Um, but what I did was I went all the way down to the 129 strike. Now, I specifically, uh, chose this strike because at the time I was getting a potential 3% ROI at the time of selling this, um, option. Okay. Now, right now it's a potential 2.87% and that fluctuates. Results vary there. But I really like that strike because I'm able to collect like $350 in premium. It's a 26 delta. So, there's only a 26% chance of me getting assigned a stock. All right, between here and 18 days from now, right? So, that's for me, 3% ROI, potential ROI in 18 days. Obviously results vary there, but I really like that, uh, risk profile. Okay.
So, that's exactly where I would say, hey, if the stock went down there, cool. Right from today, if it went all the way down to 129, that would be, um, about an 8% discount. And from all-time highs, that would be about a 16% discount. So, those are the type of discounts that I like getting on these stocks. Now, Hood has potential, a lot of downside potential, um, if things get rocky here. That's why I'm choosing strikes that are kind of below the mid-Bollinger Band line, but slightly above the lower Bollinger Band so I could collect enough premium there. Um, so, that's why I really scaled up on Hood because I believe their earnings are going to be great and I do like the company long-term. They're serving a very wide market. They're really going after the masses here and I think that is, uh, something that's going to be very good for the future. So, Robin Hood is another one I scaled up on.
Now, the last one is HIMS. I think HIMS is a good opportunity going into earnings. There's a lot of premium in the options and we're trading below this mid-Bollinger Band line, which is also the 20, uh, 20-day moving average. But, you know, it looks like it's holding these $50 levels pretty well. Okay. So, I'm going to show you kind of what I would do today. Let's go into the portfolio. As you can see, I have $120K in cash secured puts. So, I put my money where my mouth is. Um, I love the company. They have great earnings, good chart, and lots of premiums in the options. So, I'm selling the 50s, which I feel comfortable getting assigned there to collect $5K. But, if I had to do an option today, okay, I would avoid earnings. All right, you could play earnings, you know, after these expire, but I would actually go 18 days out. I would probably avoid earnings, go 18 days out, and I would go to like the 45 strike. Okay, the 45 strike. I'm going to collect $86 per contract, which is a 2% potential ROI. Results vary, but that's a very good ROI in 18 days. And, you know, if we go to the stock, you could see that 45, right, would be all the way down here, which would be about a 17% discount from here. And the reason I chose 45 is because it would be right at this, uh, 200-day moving average, which has been support in the past for this stock. As you can see here, September 2nd, we actually hit the 200-day moving average, bounced off, right, and headed upwards from there. Um, if we scroll back all the way to the tariffs crash, you can see we dipped slightly below the 200-day moving average a couple times and then went back up. So, this 200-day moving average has served as support for this stock many times in the past and I think that's kind of like an extremely, uh, safe area to acquire the stock for me. So, it's well below the lower Bollinger Band and, uh, you know, right there off support. So, HIMS is going to be another one that I'm looking to add potentially even more to in the next week.
So, if you enjoyed this video, please give it a thumbs up and I look forward to seeing you in the next update on Wednesday. Take care and have a good.