Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review, we will talk about BTC rejecting at its resistance. We will follow up here on the trade I took on Ethereum. We will of course do an analysis of Ethereum, also an analysis of altcoins. We will look at three cryptos that you asked me to analyze. I'll give them to you now. I have Pengu, Plume, and Chainlink. And as usual, we will look for setups if we can execute them. Before I start, I want to inform you that for Black Friday today, I have decided to launch a promotion on the Crypto Investors program. It's been a while since I launched a promotion on this program. For those who don't know, Crypto Investors is, in my opinion, the best program to invest in cryptocurrencies professionally. To build a tailor-made portfolio. If you are currently lost, whether in a bull market or a bear market, you absolutely must be able to have your own strategy, a plan, a tailor-made portfolio, know where you are entering, where you are exiting, how to manage your portfolio well, that's the goal of Crypto Investors. Here, we are not talking about trading, we are really talking about long-term investment in crypto, but long-term investment can also be catastrophic. So yes, perhaps trading is more complicated, but many on this cycle are not profitable and are losing money. And that's not because you don't have the right indicator, no, it's because you don't have a method, you don't have a strategy. And all of that, I teach you inside. I even share my portfolio with you. I teach you to analyze a crypto from A to Z, including fundamental analysis, tokenomics analysis, and technical analysis. You will know when to enter and at what time to enter. There is also a whole section on complete live crypto analyses where I show you my rating system from A to Z and how I work. I teach you to build your tailor-made portfolio. There is even a test inside that will allow you to identify your investor profile, which will simply allow you to have a portfolio adapted to your profile. And we see how to succeed in your bull market, succeed in your bear market. A section on mindset. I'll let you click on the first link in the description to see everything that's inside this program. And of course, there are bonuses with a section on protecting your cryptos, access to private investor groups, a cheat sheet, you don't need to take notes, you have a complete PowerPoint with all the rating systems and everything that goes with it. And of course, free updates for life and private message support because for me, a program isn't just watching videos, no, it's me accompanying you by private message, I follow you, you ask questions, I answer you, if you need help, I'm there, simply. And that, of course, is for life. So, for those who want to take advantage of it for Black Friday, and given the market context, this is the kind of time when you can train yourself very well to take advantage of the next cycle, to be ready, simply, depending on what happens next. You get €200 off by clicking on the first link in the description.
So, BTC, we came back to test this resistance zone at $92,000. For now, we are rejecting. We had a good push here, not far from reaching $93,000. And now, we have a rejection that is underway. It's still slight, we don't specifically have a market top in the short term, but we see a loss of momentum, and it's not surprising, as I told you, we are in a zone where, even if I zoom out and switch to daily, this is a point of interest that we have really broken. That is to say, we stopped for a day, we tried to set a bottom, but we really broke through. What you need to understand is that a support level, as long as we are above it, acts as support. If we are below it, it acts as resistance. It's market psychology. It's simply that the market has a memory based on where it stopped. We have buyers who are stuck, sellers who are stuck. That's why we turn supports into resistances and resistances into supports. So, for those who benefited from this short-term bullish rally, this is not a good zone to look for longs. We are too high, in my opinion. Okay. After that, we have the 15-minute channel which is slightly below. The problem is that yes, we have a compression here between the 15-minute channel and this resistance zone. So, taking longs in the 15-minute channel can be done. However, you need to have a fairly quick TP because we are in a resistance zone, and it's complicated. For example, I could never have this type of trailing stop loss and aim for a 2:1 reward by breaking such a strong resistance. No, I would have a much tighter stop loss to take partial profits at least in this resistance zone. I never anticipate the breakout of a resistance. As I said, a potential top. We have the 15-minute crossing the 1-hour upwards. The 1-hour is also oriented upwards. Now, we need to consider that we have this zone here that interests me much more if I were to take shorts. $95,000, a psychological level, weekly pivot point, 4-hour channel. But here, we are also in a good zone to take shorts, with, as we can see clearly here, a selling reaction. Someone who is selling here and says, "Well, I'm taking shorts because my location zone is good." Invalidation above the high. Here, we see that we have two upper wicks that show us that buyers have shown up. We clearly had a rejection, meaning sellers absorbed the aggressive buyers who tried to break through, and then they showed up. So, for now, we remain in this bullish trend. However, we have quite a bit of downside here to reach. Okay. If we go there and set a bottom just below, it could be interesting. Generally, these types of downside entries, if there's absorption above, meaning a bullish reaction following the sell-offs that are executed, which will simply be buy limits, passive buyers who absorb the aggressive selling due to the triggering of these stop losses. It could be quite bullish, and we could indeed set a bottom here. In any case, for me, there are no signs of a top. It's not because we have a fairly strong selling reaction that the top is marked in the short term. A top is lower lows and lower highs. This type of structure: high, low, lower high, lower low, lower high, even lower low. If we have this type of pattern, yes, okay, we could say we are in a downtrend and we could experience a more significant retracement. For now, as I told you when we broke through with this impulsive candle, I clearly told you that as long as we don't go back below this level, it's bullish and we can reach this resistance zone. Here, the scenario has been validated. Now, we wait. When we are in zones like this, I prefer to be cautious. Okay, I'm not going to get excited and euphoric here. And unfortunately, that's how most people operate. That is to say, here they are afraid, they don't dare to position themselves, and when we come back to test a resistance zone, that's it, it's off. You absolutely have to get in because otherwise you'll miss the train. No, don't operate that way. Either you position yourself when there are big drops with capitulation-like wicks, as we had here, as we have here, it's simply a big red candle followed by a wick. Okay, this generally indicates that we have found a buyer. It can be good for closing short positions or for buyers who have absorbed the selling pressure. But we don't start positioning ourselves when the rebound has already begun. Okay? It's like here, you see, in a downtrend, there are indeed rebounds. Do you position yourself here? Do you position yourself here? Absolutely not. Okay? So, either we wait for a pullback, or we wait for a breakout, at the limit, but here we are absolutely not in a good zone. For my part, on BTC, as I said, I remain cautious. From an order flow perspective, we still have negative funding. And here we have a rise that is, well, it's rather healthy because it seems to be driven by spot, as we can see. Now, we have some weakening, but as long as the funding is negative, it's rather good. Okay? I remind you that funding simply allows to maintain a price on the perpetual contract correlated to the spot contract price. With the funding you have, if you have positive funding, it's the longs that pay fees to the shorts. When you open a position on perpetual contracts, you obviously have fees for opening or closing the position, but you also have position holding fees. The longer you hold a position, the more fees you will pay, or you will be paid fees. All of this depends on whether the funding is positive or negative. And generally, when there are a lot of FOMO, a lot of longs, we will have strongly positive funding, and we will pay fees. The fees will be much higher to pay, which simply avoids certain manipulations and too much decoupling between the perpetual contract price and the spot contract price. It simply discourages people from going long when the funding is strongly positive because, well, it makes you pay quite a few fees. So, how do we interpret it fairly quickly, in a fairly simple way? Strongly positive funding, a lot of longs, a lot of FOMO. Strongly negative funding, a lot of shorts. Okay? This is not positive funding. Here, you can see, you might say, "Wow, we have huge spikes." No, if I switch to daily, you see, these are positive fundings. This is nothing. This is classic. Okay? These are strongly positive fundings. This often indicates that the price is quite high, a lot of FOMO. Okay? And be careful, we potentially have a market top here. Why? Because when people FOMO, when people are fully long, what's left? Only sellers. If everyone is a buyer, if everyone has already bought, the market can no longer go up. What makes the market go up? Buyers. If everyone has already bought, what's left? Future sellers. Okay? And when we have fundings that are this high, like this, like this, these are often market tops. Conversely, when we have negative fundings, which is much rarer, well, these are often bottoms here too. So, strongly positive funding, market top. Negative funding, strongly negative fundings are rare, except for the FTX crash. Here. You see? Otherwise, it's rare, it's quite rare. And well, this simply indicates that we have short FOMO, a lot of shorts, in any case fewer longs than before, and often we are at bottoms. Uh, so, that's it on the order flow side, and generally, we also like to look at spreads. I look at spreads much more for market tops than for market bottoms. For market bottoms, I prefer to look at funding. But for spreads, market tops are also interesting. When the perpetual contract price is higher than the spot contract price, so here above the zero level, it indicates that there is more FOMO, more people speculating on perpetual contracts than on the spot contract price, and generally, we are also at potential market tops. So, on the BTC side, I don't specifically have any setups that are triggering. I have a good location here, 15-minute channel and daily pivot point, but the fact that there is resistance above, I don't have a particularly interesting risk-reward. So, I won't take a trade on BTC from my side.
Now, let's follow up on the Ethereum trade. The follow-up will be quite simple. I closed yesterday at this level, 10:55 PM here. Why? Because I didn't want to keep this trade overnight, simply. And at this level, well, it was evening, generally I don't stay up until 3 AM either. So, I have a slight weakening here, I see that we are losing this low. Well, I exited, which gives me a risk-reward of about, if I remember correctly, 2.4, something like that, 2.5. So, in this zone, a trend-following trade that I had taken back in the 15-minute channel, daily pivot point, bullish reaction, I entered the position. Now, yes, if I had kept my position, we can always do it, if I had put a stop loss above this high, I would have had a more significant risk-reward, but well, we see that the 15-minute channel is still acting as support for now on Ethereum, and I didn't have a setup at this level because I wasn't in front of the screens since it was night. So, a small trade. Currently, I'm taking a bit fewer trades due to the market context, which is a bit more complicated to trade. Not more complicated, no, those are not the words I wanted to use. I simply have fewer setups triggering. And when I have fewer setups triggering, I don't force setups. My goal is not to force a setup. I have my rules, okay? I have my conditions, I have different setups. These can be trend-following setups, they can be reversal setups. So, several types of setups. And my goal is simply to do either trend continuation, or as I said, reversal setups, or other setups, I won't show you everything here, which give me a set of rules. If these rules are respected, I enter the position. If they are not respected, I don't enter. But I never force a setup. That's the worst thing to do because, well, it's simply not respecting your plan, and I'm telling you clearly, you will regret it if, in the long term, you don't respect your trading plan. On Ethereum, where are we? We still have this V-shaped bottom rebound. Remember, V-shaped bottom rebounds are very often tested to either continue or form a W. It's very rare that we go directly to the moon. You see, we have rebounds like this. Rebound here in a V-shaped bottom. Boom, we see it clearly. Drop, V-shaped bottom rebound, we retest it. What can we have here? Drop, small rebound, we retest. It's very rare that we go back to the moon. Okay? And boom, rebound. Here, we retest it several times. It can happen to go back in a V-shaped bottom, but it's quite rare, and given the structure that has been broken here, I wouldn't be surprised if we consolidate and spend a bit more time to form a larger bottom. So, either we form a bottom here. However, if it doesn't hold, for me, the scenario of coming back to test $2,200 is still there, and that would indeed be a very good location zone on Ethereum to position for the long term. For now, as I said, I remain cautious, whether it's BTC, Ethereum, or other altcoins. I have slightly increased my exposure to BTC as I said, but I'm waiting for better confirmations on Ethereum. Still in a bearish dynamic, let's put in moving averages. Okay, we see that the medium to long-term moving averages, 4-hour and daily, are oriented downwards. Now, yes, on the short term, we have a rebound. We clearly see the 15-minute which is above the 1-hour, acting as support for a long time. There is enough to build a trend on Ethereum. We see it clearly, a bearish trend, the 15-minute oriented downwards. We reject every time we go there, we break it, we flip it into support, and here we have a good bullish momentum. However, the long-term trend takes precedence over the short-term trend. Not if you are doing short-term trading, but in terms of price direction. And if I have a bearish trend, I will have a higher chance in the long term of continuing that downtrend. And then, on Ethereum, it's true that it's a chart that, technically and fundamentally, remains a very promising project. Of course, technically, it's true that it's not great. Having made a new ATH and then re-entered, well, it's ugly. It's ugly, and it's not the most bullish chart in the sense that we are in a long-term range instead of simply being in an uptrend like BTC is doing. BTC, cycle after cycle, is ATH after ATH. Okay? On Ethereum, it's the first time it hasn't made an ATH. After the first time, it's not like we have 30 cycles of history, but well, in any case, it shows us that there is a weakening on Ethereum, and here, it's simply trading like a range. For now, everything that happens around $3,000 or above is not great. $3,000 is a level that interests me. Okay, but you have to consider that we are in the middle of a range. It's not the most interesting zone. Now, if we lose $3,000, as I told you, $2,200, we lost $3,000. We have a bullish reaction. At this level of $3,000, it's never a precise zone. I never work by exact dollar price levels. I always work by intervention zones. We see clearly that between here, $2,008, and $3,000, this is our intervention zone where we can potentially consolidate for now. Similarly on Ethereum, no trade here. I have no setups that are triggering. I already know that in advance. And in any case, I am someone who doesn't need to take 40 trades per day. It can happen in a week that I only take three or four trades, and that's more than enough for me. Aim to trade better rather than increasing your number of trades, that simply serves no purpose.
Regarding altcoins, well, we don't have any major altcoins that are breaking out of the low. We have Kaspa, which is still in its rally here. You see, I like to do what I'm doing now, which is to take three altcoins that you ask me to analyze, and in addition, take an altcoin that I choose. Why? Because, as I told you recently, this is an altcoin that stands out and is decoupling. Okay. We saw it again, I think it was yesterday, we were in the 15-minute channel. No, that wasn't it, I'm confusing it with another one. But in any case, Kaspa is still in this bullish trend, it's the altcoin that stands out. This allows me, with this type of tool, to see that over the week, it's the altcoin that has performed the best. Now, there are others, WIF, Inn, of course, but the best altcoin that performed the best here, well, it's Kaspa. This simply shows me that there is a decoupling between Kaspa and other cryptos. Something is happening, there is bullish momentum. I don't try to know why, I don't try to say, "Yes, is it due to news? Is it this? Is it that?" It doesn't matter. What is certain is that demand is greater than supply. What do I try to do? Well, position myself in the direction of the flow. There are buyers present. I'm not going to start saying, "Oh no, I'm going against you." Well, some people do counter-trend trading, but counter-trend means shorting here, taking profits here. Shorting here, taking profits here. Personally, I prefer to go long here, take profits here, go long here, take profits here or higher, because in an uptrend, bullish impulses are larger than bearish impulses. So, you have a better chance, as I said, of being in the direction of, not the trend, but of being in the highest movement. This means that in a downtrend, you absolutely need the highest point and to take the lowest point. In an uptrend, in a bullish impulse here, if you miss your entry a bit, you don't have a very interesting low point or a very interesting point, you enter mid-way, you can still come out okay because the impulses are larger. Well, in any case, Kaspa is an altcoin to watch. We potentially have some weakening here. We see it clearly, we are potentially entering a range, but the trend remains bullish. Uh, so, the altcoins you asked me to analyze, I have Pengu, Hop, I'll take that. Pitstamp, I don't know if I have everything here. There are altcoins that I analyze, so many altcoins. The truth is, sometimes I don't remember if I have all the charts. I think I have everything here. There are Pengu, I've analyzed it many times, but I just don't remember if I have the whole chart or not. Uh, so, yes, I have everything at this level, except for Pengu, where are we? Well, globally, we can draw an H here. Where is my square? It's here. We can draw a long-term range. We are blocked between two boundaries. An upper boundary around 4 cents, 0.045. A lower boundary around 0.005. This means we have amplitude. So, between the bottom and the top, we have good amplitude. We are in a strong bearish dynamic here with strong selling pressure. We see clearly in the last few weeks, we had this W pattern that structured a bottom. What inverts a W pattern? An M pattern. We see it clearly here, the high, the low, the lower high, and here the breakout. Whereas here, we have higher lows and higher highs. I'll switch to a line chart, we see it clearly. Higher lows and higher highs, lower highs and lower lows. Here, currently, we are in a bearish dynamic. Yes, we are coming back to test a very good location zone. That's a fact. We are coming back to our range bottom, this previous zone where we had strong bullish impulses, but for now, we have no bullish reaction. So, the zone, okay, our location zone is good. Now, I need to measure what could give me a signal to have confirmation that buyers are showing up. I would need here, yes. A reversal pattern. We still have moving averages oriented downwards. There are several types of scenarios. Either here, I make a lower low, a higher high. This means I make a lower low again and then I break this high that made a lower low. This means I have an inversion of my dynamic, and I will no longer make lower highs, but I will make higher lows than the previous one. And here, I could mark a higher low than this one. And in that case, well, I could have a bottom forming. And then it could be interesting to position ourselves either on the pullback here for the more aggressive ones with an invalidation below the low, or for those who want to wait for better confirmation, the validation of this double. Globally, this is what I would watch at this level. And if you are positioning for the very long term, wait on the weekly to have a better structure, a reversal, something that shows us that buyers are there. Because for now, be careful, this type of crypto can move very quickly. If we enter a bear market, if there is even more selling pressure on cryptos, this altcoin can really collapse. I don't even know if we have, yes, we have almost the entire supply in circulation. We have a market cap that is not far from the FDV, but we still have some tokens to unlock, apparently. Yes, but what I mean is, I'm missing a bullish reaction. The zone is good, but still in this bearish dynamic. Uh, next, I have Plume. So, let me put in altcoins. I don't have many left in stock. After that, if I don't have any left at all, I'll take other altcoins. I have altcoins in mind, but otherwise, don't hesitate. Uh, yes, Plume, it's ugly. Plume is really ugly. Am I on the right crypto? Because I think there are several with the name Plume. No, I'm on the right crypto. Uh, Plume, it's ugly. Since we lost this level of 7 cents, we are down 77%. You see, this is the importance of having stop losses. Many neglect invalidations, but someone who says, for example, here, boom, we have this support level, and boom, someone who says, very well, here I have a false breakout, re-entry, okay, I'll position myself at the time of re-entry. The professional person puts a stop loss below, says, "Okay, we go below, we close below, I'm out." That's a professional entry. The person takes a loss, but that's how it is, it's part of trading. However, the person who is not professional in their approach, well, they don't put a stop loss here and they lose an additional 63%. And this is a crypto that will never return to its ATH. We have fallen too much, we have dropped too much. It's unlikely we'll return. We might even have a not-so-great tokenomics. Uh, yes, we see clearly the entire supply in circulation, 31%, meaning there will be tokens unlocked. This will reduce scarcity, put strong selling pressure. This is a crypto that will make ATL after ATL, all-time low after all-time low. It can be shorted, of course, if we do trend continuation, it's the same principle as any crypto. You put in moving averages. Look at the 1-hour channel. Look, boom, pullback, pullback, boom, pullback. We break it. Very well, we go to the 4-hour, pullback, we reject again. This is a crypto. You just need to put in moving averages. Boom, let's even switch to shorter term if you want. Look at the 15-minute. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, and as soon as we break it, boom, 1-hour, and we reject again. There is very strong selling pressure on Plume. So, someone who wanted to position themselves as a buyer, well, I would tell them not to position themselves as a buyer because the chart is ugly. Unless we start to have a reversal pattern, moving back above the moving averages. Okay, why not? For now, there's nothing to do. Don't start doing DCA or positioning yourself haphazardly on this type of crypto, which can still drop another 70%, for example. Last crypto, Chainlink. Hop, boom, weekly. So, on Chainlink, where are we? We had this large accumulation that lasted for a bit more than a year, I believe, to form a new accumulation, or rather a new range, why not a re-accumulation. We are rather at the lower end, so rather a zone where we will look for longs. Everything that comes back to test between $10 and $12 is a good location zone to look to position ourselves. Okay? And the objective is to reach the upper end. What we want to avoid on Chainlink is really closing below $8. I want to take this impulsive candle as a reference point for invalidation. If we start to really close on the weekly below this level, it means we would have confirmation that we are breaking this range downwards and also that we are re-entering this range, and we are re-entering the impulsive candle that broke this range. Honestly, if we do that, for me, there are very high probabilities of making a lower low, okay, and experiencing another, let's say, 40% to 50% drop, which is not the most probable scenario, but it should not be disregarded in your scenarios either. However, here, the most probable thing is to react again at the lower end because that's what we've done once, twice, three times, it's our range bottom, it's a good zone to look for longs, and classic partial take profit at the middle of the range, a total or partial take profit at the upper end again. Then, we can visit, if you want, boom, keep some exposure. We have $34, that's a good zone. After that, we have the ATH, we have higher, of course, in case Chainlink wants to push. What is certain is that here, yes, we are in a good zone, but similarly, like all cryptos, which is normal given the drop we've experienced lately, we are missing a bullish reaction here. For now, we are still in this bearish pressure with these moving averages oriented downwards.
So, I'll leave you with that. I've covered everything from my side. For those who want to take advantage of Black Friday, you have €200 off the Crypto Investor program by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening. I'll see you tomorrow for another video.