Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you've had a, you know, a wonderful trading recast. You know, our bias has panned out again. Shouldn't be a surprise to you, right? So, as you guys can see on the chart, you know, we have what I would like to call a partial sequential SMT right right here. You can see that we took out a low, you know, that we took out a low that was formed within the previous quarter, right? In regards to the monthly cycle, right? But we did not take out both of them, right? In the Dow, we traded below the lowest close, right? But we did not take out this low. So when you see, you know, things, you know, things like this happen, right? We took out a low but, you know, not the lowest low, but we did trade below the lowest close. That in itself is sequential SMT, but, right? It must be confirmed by a lower timeframe sequential SMT, which is where price within this, you know, wick down, you know, took place. So here you can see that we traded and just traded within this brick, formed a failure swing, which is what we expected for the S&P 500. If you remember what we were talking, you know, when we talked about the S&P 500, this is what we expected. We did not expect the S&P 500 to run below the low at all, right? But due to the fact that we had a fearing here, we had the NASDAQ take this low out, right? And not trade below this close, but we had the Dow trade below this lowest close of price, right? Here, right? Price traded back up, and we had SMT within the 9-minute cycle, right? Here, which is what propelled price higher, right? So we did have sequential SMT because that was sequential SMT, right? Just, you know, something that's new.
This usually happens within low probability conditions, you know, low probability weeks, right? Which is, you know, the week that we currently have, which I did touch upon, I believe, in the last Sunday's, past Sunday's live stream, right? Why is this week lower probability? You know, than the others? Low probability does not mean that, you know, you can't trade it. It just means that price will not be as clear as it could be, right? It's due to the fact that we have, we have contract expiry this month, this week, this Friday, right? So this Friday, we will be switching contracts, right? So the March contract will expire, right? And whenever that happens, which is this Friday, we will switch to the new contract, which will be June, all right? June's contract. So currently, there is not a lot of volume in the market, right? Some people are already, are already trading the other contract, right? But, you know, we're old school, so we'll stick to this one until it expires, and after this expires, we'll switch, right?
Currently, we have the S&P 500 very close to this. So you guys can see, and I'll turn on the, the cross here, so you guys can see, right? Because someone wanted to see this. So we have the SP 500 extremely close, right? To the highest high of the previous week. The NASDAQ, right? We have price not, you know, as close. The highest high that formed in the Dow, right? In the previous week, we already have price trading above that high. So currently, we do have sequential SMT, all right? But remember, we need a lower timeframe cycle sequence of SMT to confirm that, you know, we're going to see lower prices. And due to the fact that we have high impact news tomorrow, right? We have high impact news tomorrow, which is Thursday. And remember, you know, take this as a grain of salt because we're in a very low probability week, right? So the only, only reason, you know, why you should even be thinking about doing anything is if exactly what I talk about now pans out, right? So this is today's high, which is Wednesday, right? This is Wednesday's high. Look at, look at the ES. That's Wednesday's high. Look at the NASDAQ. That's Wednesday's high. And look at the Dow. You can see Dow Wednesday's high is this high, right? Here, right? So you have times when the high of the day is in the, in different asset classes will form different types, right? So if we have price trade above here, right? And I don't want to, I don't want to be seen as ambiguous, being ambiguous or, you know, two-sided. I am not. I'm never two-sided, right? I'm either right, right? Or I'm wrong, right? I'm either right or I'm wrong. I'm never ambiguous, right? So if we see price, you know, trade above Wednesday's high tomorrow, which is Thursday, and we have sequential SMT, that would confirm that we are going to be going lower, right? As you guys can see, we're in very close proximity to Wednesday's high in, in ES's price action. But in NASDAQ price action, we are, you know, a few points away, over 100 points away from Wednesday's high, right? So if anything happens, you know, we could see NASDAQ being weaker among all of these, right? If price runs above here and it even takes out this high, right? I wouldn't expect NASDAQ to take this high out before we trend lower or pull back lower within this range, right? Whenever you're functioning within a quarter, a specific quarter of time, right? You want to relate to the previous high of the previous cycle or on the previous low, right? So currently, these swing points, right? These swing, this swing point right here would be of importance, and this swing low right here would be of importance, right? So what would that tell you? That we're in premium. This is liquidity. Right? There are, you know, there are big firms that have their buy stops above this high. So price pushes above here, and there is a lower timeframe sequence to SMT, we would expect price to fall back within this range, right?
Looking at price action as a whole, right? Now you can see that we are literally within a consolidated marketplace. Consolidation follows, you know, consolidation is usually what comes before sequential SMT, right? And what comes after sequential SMT is either expansion or reversal, depending on the type of sequential SMT that you have, right? So if we see SMT here, we could, what could we expect? We could again expect the magneto effect, right? Which happened right here. Sequential SMT, right? After an opposing sequential SMT will send price to the previous sequential SMT, right? And this is what happens during consolidating markets, right? You have SMT here, it sends it higher. SMT again sends it lower. SMT again sends it higher, and that's what usually happens, all right? Hopefully, you, you know, you understand that. So currently, right? There's not a lot to do but waiting. And you've heard me say this before, not a lot of times, right? But I've said this before, there are times when we just have to wait for more information. But there are times when the market is as clear as day. The market isn't clear right now, right? So we had price do what we expected price to do, right? Which, you know, there was turtle soup. And turtle soup, you know, does not have to occur when price trades below a low, right? It just has to trade below the lowest open, which, which it didn't, didn't happen here, didn't happen here, but it did happen here in the Dow. And after it traded below the low, this right here, and the open, what happened there? There was sequence, there was partial sequential SMT. Price traded higher, retraced, right? This low to this high, lower, retraced lower than 50%. There was 90-minute cycle sequential SMT, right? Here, which propelled price higher. The magneto effect, you understand? So currently, right? Equal lows here, right? Relatively equal highs here, right? We need to see either this high, well, more than likely this high breached, right? We need to see this high breached, this one stay intact, and, you know, on lower timeframes, you know, change in the state of delivery, and then we can approach price action accordingly, right?
So currently, you know, I believe that the Forex market looks a bit clearer for the first time in a very long time, all right? Looking at, you know, this price action, you remember that we expected price to fall within a daily fair value gap that was right here, which, which did happen, right? And we have this high right here, the great, which P high right here, the highest high of the previous quarter, right? And we're referring to the monthly cycle, right? Now, the previous quarter, right? Of the monthly cycle, in regards to the Euro USD, is highest high is this high, right? You can see that this high is closer in proximity to this high than this high is to this time, right? Also, you can see that this gap that's right here, right? And I'll show you guys in the weekly, so this gap, the weekly gap right here, is closer in proximity than this gap right here, as well. These are telltale signs of reversal. If I, no, telltale signs of reversal, right? So if we have this, right? We have price action run above this high during this week, right? So if you have price action run above this side during this weekend, this high holds, which means that there's a failure swing here, then we'll look for lower prices, right? Due to the fact that that would cause sequential SMT, which is what? Which is what we base most of our trades around, right? Here you can see that we had a failure swing right here, which was not, this was not SMT, right? So this was a failure swing. This was a, a failure swing as well, right? And correct. So if we see price, you know, form sequential SMT here, that would trigger a magneto effect again. It should send price to this low, right? So everything that we're basing our trades upon is the base, is sequential SMT. That's the base, right? That's the base. And the reason why I repeat this so much is to get you guys to understand the importance of it. The monthly cycle, right? Is what you will be, you know, determining most of your bias upon. So if you're trading during the first and second week, and we do not yet have a monthly sequential SMT, what will you do? You, you will trade as if you do not have a bias, and you will just be functioning, you know, within the daily cycle and the weekly cycle, right? You will just be trading what you have right now, but you will not be looking at the macro view of things. Because when you get to the monthly cycle, you'll be within low probability conditions. But when you're trading within the weekly timeframe, if you see a sequential SMT between Wednesday and Thursday, that's high probability conditions. The weekly timeframe, the monthly timeframe, usually frames most of the movement that we see on a month-to-month basis. Do you understand?
So currently, as you guys can see, we had price, right? Take this high out, but this one is still in place, right? That's not sequential, right? If price takes this one out, which usually happens, right? Whenever there is sequential SMT, there, there is usually a swing low prior to the failure swing that, you know, does not get taken out. So usually, you would see price take this one out, right? And take this one out, but fail to get this one. That's what usually happens during sequential SMT, which is why usually, you know, you can enter with price trades above a high like this and put your stop here on the basis that price already traded above this high. Same thing goes for here, right? As, as you guys can see, this is not, not, you know, the clean price action that you would like to see. This is not clean at all. This is just consolidating at the moment, and I already told you guys why it is, and that's due to the fact that we are within, you know, the contract expiry week.
Bitcoin. So we've seen Bitcoin expanding higher for a, you know, it's had an amazing run, to be honest, right? You can't take that from it, right? It has had an amazing run. And for Bitcoin to reverse, you need to see sequential SMT between the yearly cycle, and we are currently not seeing sequential SMT between the yearly, the current, the yearly cycles, right? We are not at the moment. We are not. So the first sign would, you know, be consolidation, which we have no consolidation right now for Bitcoin. So we could see Bitcoin pushing higher, you know, we have no consolidation for Bitcoin at the moment. There's no consolidation, right? And for reversal to occur, there must be sequential SMT, right? So we're going higher and going higher. If, if by any, you know, if we see price, you know, pull back, if we see price pull back, that still will not mean that Bitcoin is bearish. We would have to see price pull back, then create sequential SMT with that high during the yearly cycle, you understand? So confirmation of Bitcoin's price going lower, it will not, you know, happen within this quarter. Is it high probability to be buying here? No. Would I buy here? No, I would not. Will there be better prices to buy? Of course, there will be. There will be, of course. Same thing goes for Ethereum, right? Bitcoin, Ethereum, you know, works hand in hand so far. You can see that we have SMT between this high and this high, this high and this high at the moment. I will be back with you guys around, I believe, Saturday, right? After the contracts expire. There's not a lot to talk about at the moment, right? And we have, I have this issue that I'm actually working on, right? The leakers. Those guys are like my enemies right now. I want to talk, but, you know, I have to be giving you guys the information, you know, condensed. So each live stream, you know, will contain information pertaining to the previous live stream, right? And we will begin speaking about the doubling theory next month, not this month, right? Next month, we'll be speaking about doubling theory. So the current live stream right now, right? Which is today's Wednesday, right? This is, you know, not your typical live stream due to the fact that we have contract expiry Friday, right? We have contracts expiry Friday. Contracts are going to expire. You know, there is more than likely going to be a shifting sentiment because the markets, the markets have been going on forever, and markets do not do this. So if you guys have not, you know, been actually going through videos, making notes, you need to be doing so because we're going to be touching upon doubling theory, which is a parent of the Oculus theory. Oh, why did I talk about that one? The Oracle theory. Yeah, you guys don't know about Oculus yet? Oh my God, I'm actually terrible. I'm crazy, man. I should cut that part out. So the Oracle theory, which is a, which is the parent of the doubling theory, right? We'll be talking about the Oracle theory, you know, around month, month six. But next month, we'll be discussing the doubling theory, which, you know, to improve your accuracy, we could, we can be using it real-time. And I heard that there are people that are taking my Sunday live streams and, you know, taking the information that I give them and they're like applying that information to their own like chats and charging people for analysis, which is crazy, right? Absolutely insane, which is why, you know, I don't give straight out signals because if I do that, there will be people that will just be, you know, taking it like by by ES at 5100, stop plus 5090, TP 5172, you know, they'll just be taking copy and pasting and they'll be making money, which is terrifying to me. I don't want it happening. So instead, you know, I come and I tell you what to expect and how to confirm what I expect, you know, and with your time within the charts, you will, you know, understand how to approach the data. But yeah, pretty much that's it. So you guys learned, you know, a new, you know, thing today, which was the turtle soup that that occurs when price trades below the lowest open and there is partial sequential SMT, which happens when, right? There is SMT below the second to lowest low, right? So it would be this low right here, if you're looking on the mouse right here. So trade below this low would fail, trade below this one while trading below the lowest close while price is not trading below the lowest close in other asset classes. And we'll touch upon this more. There are so many things that we need to touch upon, you know, during the course of this year. Not even sure if we're going to touch everything upon, you know, the course of this year, right? But I'll be trying to do so as we, you know, get into clearer market conditions because the way I teach is not, I don't like teaching with hindsight later, just, you know, showing you guys a chart of what happened before. You know, I want to see you, I want you guys to like experience in what I'm talking about happening right now. And the reason why we are having, you know, a dry conversation right now is due to the fact that we're within dry market conditions. If you guys can, you know, if you guys remember like last month, last week, the week before, the week before, when we were having all these movements, right? Here, you know, it was more, you know, lively due to the fact that we had, you know, good price action. And with that being said, hopefully you guys have a, you know, wonderful week. And we're doing our best, right? To get rid of the leakers. We've got, we've literally, we've found like four already, and they've been, we've kicked out four, four. So there's like more, which is insane, right? That's actually insane because we've got rid of four and there's more that's probably watching right now, which is crazy, man. It's insane, man. But anyways, yeah, I hope that you guys have a wonderful week. And we'll be back Saturday, right? So we'll be back Saturday, Saturday, and then Sunday again, right? So we will speak about what happened on Friday during Sunday's live stream. And Sunday's live stream would be a live stream where I will be, you know, answering questions that you guys have been asking in the question chat. Have a nice day, my friends.