Transcription
We are back with Monday Night Football between the Lions and the Ravens. What's going on everyone? Welcome back in to another episode for Just a Bet Outside. I am your host Stephen and we are back.
What an insane week three we just witnessed. Holy smokes. Uh, I got out of it as a small profitable day on Sunday. Hey, it was heading towards an awesome, awesome day and just some of the worst beats. Some of you guys probably had it too. We'll go over the full recap in a little bit. We'll take some small profit on a day that saw a lot of upsets and a lot of crazy things.
But quick reminder, MLB best bets video is out now. Be sure to check it out. We are on a nice 11 and 2 run in the MLB as we wind down that regular season. But of course, any graphics you see in this video are from Outlier, the best betting research tool on the market today. Click that link below in the description. 7-day free trial.
So, let's get into it. I got a dad joke. So, here we go. I never seen the inside of my ears, but I've heard good things.
Yeah, I know. In this video, we're going to recap week three and what we just saw, and then we're going to preview and give best bets. I got two of them for the Lions at the Ravens. We got a great game on Monday night. And then, of course, we'll finish it with the recap. So, hit that like button if you haven't already. Leave a comment below to help this channel continue to grow. If you're new to the channel, you know what to do. Hit that subscribe button. Come join this awesome community. Appreciate all the support every single day. Let's get it rolling.
And that means it's recap time. All right, like we do every Sunday night, we are going to recap what we just saw and how the bets did. Game Bets should have been 4-0. I'm going to say it right now. Um, this is not just me complaining. This was a 4-0 read type of day on game bets. Let's let's go over it.
Browns plus eight and a half. How about on the money line? I said they had a chance to win. Uh, I should have probably just taken the Packers team total under. Would have been a lot less stressful. Uh, but this Browns defense is no joke. I expected a let down from the Packers. I love that read. Nice win there. Jaguars team total over 23 under 23 and a half. Another easy winner. I didn't trust the Houston offense, so I didn't take them on the money line. I just trusted their defense and they got the job done. Rams plus four. Can we have a moment of silence? This is You got to be kidding me. They were up 19 at one point. Not just that. Up or down one. You guys know it. Kicking a game-winning field goal. I'm watching it going, I don't even care if he makes or miss. I probably want him to miss because he's in they're in the or Seahawks division. Just that's all I care about. Just kick it. We'll call the game over. Blocked and they didn't have to. But Jaylen Carter, who ruined my week one by spitting on Dak's face, then returns it for a touchdown at the buzzer. It meant nothing except heartache for me. I I have no words, guys. That that was the read. One of my best reads that we'll lose probably this season.
Over 50 Dallas Chicago. How about 38 points at halftime, guys. And not only that, CD Lamb gets hurt, which we'll talk about in a bit. So that obviously affects it. That's one bad luck. Okay, you move on. Injuries happen. 38 points at halftime still, guys. The Dallas Cowboys had third and goal from the one. Didn't get in. Fourth and goal from the one. This is in the fourth quarter. Didn't get in. That was it. They end on 45. Seven total points in the second half. No words. Absolutely no words. But either way, again, two and two, but I love the reads there. Um, you know, it you got to have some luck. You really do. And I just didn't have it in those two. But I love those ones.
And then player props, three and two. Puka over six and a half receptions. Had a million. Keep dropping six and a half lines. We cashed two weeks in a row. Hopefully we can do it again next week. Josh Jacobs under 70 8 and a half rush yards. Easy winner. Love this. I told you it was my favorite player prop of the weekend and it cashed with ease. CD Lamb was my second favorite player prop. And again, that's three losses right there. One on a block kick at the buzzer, one because they scored seven total points in the second half. Couldn't get one yard and CD Lamb gets injured in the first quarter. It is it's football. That's why even if you have great reads, you can still lose bets in football and that's why it's tough. Um, Ellyana Manor, I it's hard to say his name. Either way, he cashed. Thanks for getting the job done. It was the fourth quarter. They were behind by a lot of help. And then Mahomes, what a terrible read. This is a bad read. Um, remind me never to do quarterback rushing props again. He leads the team in rushing through the first two weeks. Had zero interest in running the ball this time. They just wanted to run it to Kareem Hunt. and Isaiah Pacheco. I almost took Stroud over rushing yards. It was between those two and of course I picked the wrong one. But either way, that was my bad read. That was the one loss where I'm like, well, that was on me.
Um, anytime touchdowns, Jaylen Warren touchdown. Again, these are you need luck with touchdowns. And guess what? First and goal, Warren Ball, got the ball, got he got some yardage, but got stuffed. Second down, got the ball, still fell one or two yards short. Third down, they run a cool flip play to the outside for an easy walk-in touchdown for Kenneth Gainwell. Yep. Roma Dunes touchdown. Scored the first touchdown of the game. Love it. Hunter Renfro touchdown. I don't even know if he had a chance or not. Again, plus 400. Uh, the Panthers scored a lot of points, but he did not find the end zone. So, again, that's the Sunday week three bets recap. Uh, we had a profitable weekend slowly. I mean, in a small, small version of profit, I guess we'll call it.
But let's check out page two. Now, this is going to show all the breakdown like we like to show every single Sunday night. Uh, sides totals. Again, those sides totals should definitely be a better record. We're due, but that's all right. Player props carrying us right now. Anytime touchdowns right around break even. So we are 21 and 21 up .57 units on the season so far. So that's what we got for the bets recap.
Now let's talk Monday Night Football. All right, Monday night takes us out to Baltimore, Maryland where the Ravens host the Detroit Lions. Ravens minus 4 and a half with a total of 53 and a half, the highest total on the board this week for good reason. But both teams coming off week two wins both straight up and against the spread. Ravens did not look good, but turnovers helped them run away from Cleveland. Uh, just they had barely had over 200 yards because why? Cleveland's defense is legit. Lions after a brutal week one, they annihilated the Bears in week two at home as you guys know. But some numbers, Lamar and Goff are both 7-2 as a starter on Monday Night Football. Lamar is an insane 24-2 against the NFC. Ravens 47-54-1 though against a spread of 3 and 12 to 9 and a half points with John Harbaugh. That's a stat. They are also just 61 and 64 and two against the spread as home favorites.
Now, injury report. Lions linebacker Jack Campbell questionable. Quarterback DJ Reed questionable. Deian Marcus Davenport is doubtful. Uh, their offensive lineman Taylor Decker is likely to play. And safety Kirby Joseph is questionable. So, a lot of injuries there. And then Ravens also missing some big defensive guys. Linebacker Vanoi is out. That's big. Dlineman Matab is out. That's also big. And tight end Isaiah Likely is also out. So, got like six big injuries to the defenses in this one.
But let's get right into it. Um, I'm going to tell you my lean first before my two bets. My lean on the side is the Ravens minus 4 and a half. I'm not going to quite pull the trigger. I can't quite trust Jared Goff on the road outside against a good team like this in prime time. Um, we know how much he worse he's usually usually is on the in the road or on the road, but their run game should help him out a little bit, I think. But I trust the Ravens a bit more here. Line was five and a half at one point. Now it's gone to four and a half. I think the Ravens just put up a ton of points and uh, you know, my problem with betting this is I don't know what version of the Lions we're getting yet. Uh, we saw a terrible version in week one like you could tell they miss their coordinators, miss some offensive line and then week two they go back to their comfy home in against Chicago and light them up but it was in against Chicago at home. So I'm still kind of putting or waiting it out at least to see what kind of Lions team we have. That's why I'm not betting on the side.
But with all that said, now let's get into my best bet. Zay Flowers over 69 and a half receiving yards, minus 114 on FanDuel, four a half unit. Uh, love this matchup. So, as you can see by this Outlier screenshot, he's over in both games to start the year. 143 and 75 yards. He is by far the number one wide receiver in this passing attack. He has 20 of Lamar's 48 targets this season. He has more than half of the Ravens receiving yards through two weeks, and he has more than three times as many receptions as the next guy. Uh, he has had 911 targets in week one and week two. So 14 receptions on those 20 targets. No other player has more than eight targets through two weeks. This is the main guy. His average yards per catch, how about 15.6. How about 41% of the team's air yard share and 11.25 A dot. That's average depth of target like we've talked about. Also a great Yak guy. Yards after catch, which is great for this matchup. Lions play a lot of man-to-man defense. I see him busting some crossing routes here, breaking loose, and uh, having a good game here. And then the Lions, they are a pass funnel defense. They really are. They've been pretty solid against They're really good against the run last year and they're a top 10 defense against the run so far through two weeks. Makes teams have to pass the ball a lot more and that's what you want to see here. They've given up the eighth most receiving yards to wide receivers through the first two weeks. A Dunes had 128 yards against them last week. We saw Romeo Dobs, Jaden Reed both go over their receiving yards line in week one as well. Lions weakness is the short to intermediate throws in the middle of the field. That's right where Zay Flowers thrives. Love to see it here. I think we get a shootout. Obviously, highest total on the board. Like we mentioned, I expect Z to be heavily involved like usual. Possible latter spot here. So, give me Zay Flowers over 69 and a half receiving yards. That is my first best bet.
Now, second best bet. Let's do anytime touchdown. I know you guys love these. Again, I always put a quarter unit on it cuz they're kind of fun bets for me. They're you got to have some luck. But Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions anytime touchdown. It was the odds that got me here. Plus 245 for a quarter unit. Um, these odds seem a bit crazy. Uh, Jameson Williams, six receptions for 131 yards so far this season. Obviously a terrible week one. The whole offense had a terrible week one. I'm just throwing it out, but he's obviously the number two receiver on this team. It's not even close. Um, he's a guy who scored eight touchdowns last season. He's a big play guy who can score multiple ways. They use him on ender round ender rounds and things like that. He scored one rushing touchdown last year, but he has now scored six touchdowns in the last seven games. So this is a guy that knows how to find the end zone. And the Ravens, I mean, again, kind of a pass funnel defense right now. Allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers through just two weeks. A great game script here. As I like I said, I think it's a shootout. Love the value here at plus 245. So, uh, give me Jameson Williams for a touchdown. Flowers over 69 and a half receiving yards. And those are my best bets for this game. And I, like I said, I do lean on the Ravens minus 4 and a half. But that's what we got for you from Monday Night Football.
Before we get out of here though, let's check out that recap. All right, there it is. My two best bets from Monday Night. Zay Flowers over 69 and a half receiving yards and Jameson Williams anytime touchdown at plus 245. Let's finish strong. Let's get some winners. Again, leave your comment below. Let me know what you guys like from Monday Night Football. But thanks for watching. Hope you enjoy the game and we'll talk to you.