Transcription
With week one wrapping up, it's time to look towards the waiver wire to see how you can improve your fantasy football team. We're going to go through my top 12 uh pickups this week, as well as streamers for the defensive position and stashes at the end of the video.
Let's start with anybody who's in a smaller league. This is for you guys. All these players should be rostered. They were drafted in every league I am in. I play in primarily 12-team leagues, but if you're out there in an eight-team or a 10-team league, uh, these are the guys that you should be picking up before anybody else I talk about today. And if you're out there in a league, these are the only names that I would be truly aggressive with my fab this week. If any of these names like Fields, Allen, Mooney, Javonte, Billski, or Charbonnet are out there, those are the guys that I would be aggressive on, but most of you guys, they will not be available.
All right, jumping into uh, you know, more of the deep-seated ones here. Number one, a Hollywood Maris Brown. Now, I'm not really willing to go hard on the waiver wire this week. I think I should clarify that. I don't think there's any guy that's like widely available across like all formats that we're going to go hard on this week. I think there could be a lot of people going hard and they might waste their fab. So, for Hollywood Brown, I'm only willing to spend about 10% of my fab. We'll talk about it.
Um, now here's what I will say. I'm willing to spend up to 20% if we find out that Xavier Worthy is out long term. As we all know, Xavier Worthy suffered a dislocated shoulder in Brazil. According to Ian Rapoport, he says they hope he can return with a brace. Regardless, he's going to miss time. We know that. It just depends on how long he's going to miss. Uh, here's the other side of the coin here from Jeff Mueller, uh, one of the doctors we, you know, talk about a lot. He says, "The good news is there's hope that Xavier Worthy can play with the brace. The bad news is they're still getting more results, which means surgery is not off the table. So, it's possible he returns in 2025." Regardless, he's going to miss time, but there could be an injury. Here's how I will simplify this. If I knew Xavier Worthy was going to miss four to six games, I would spend up to 20% of my fab. If I knew he was going to miss the entire season, I'd be willing to spend about 25 to 30% of my fab. And he'd be my number one pickup on the waiver wire this week.
Because on Friday night, Hollywood led the wide receiver room in the Chiefs uh with 94% of the snaps, 98% of the routes run, and a 40% target share, 14 targets, which of course, in return, that meant that Hollywood led the team in fantasy points amongst wide receivers with almost 20 receptions and receiving yards with almost 100. But we have to keep in mind, guys, this is why I'm not being too aggressive. Number one, Rashee Rice will be back in week seven, and the offense will funnel through Rashee Rice. Number two, Xavier Worthy could come back and obviously if you blow your load on Hollywood Brown and Worthy comes back, you would regret that. Number three, keep in mind Friday night was the perfect game script for Hollywood. This team lost Xavier Worthy on their first offensive play. That wasn't their game plan to lose Worthy. Worthy was a part of their game plan. They had no time to adjust. Then they had to throw the ball the entire game. Think about it. There wasn't a single moment in that game where the Chiefs were up, you know, they had to throw the ball at every single point. I can promise you without a shadow of a doubt that the Chiefs ideal game plan was not to target Xavier Worthy 14 times. So again, proceed with caution, but you can make your own decisions.
All right, jumping to my 1B. I genuinely think that there is a world in which this player could end up being the waiver wire pickup of week one in 2025. That's why I'm being a little bit more bullish on him. That is Kahan Boutte. Now, he's available everywhere. All right, very rarely rostered in any of these leagues. I'm willing to spend up to 10% of my fab on him, if not more. You know, 12 if you need to kind of secure him, if you need a flex option. This game that we just saw in week one could be a huge sign of things to come for Kahan. He led the wide receiver room in New England in snap uh snaps, sorry, with 82%, routes run at 83% and target share at almost 19%. However, keep in mind that he left the game for a moment with concussion-like symptoms. But before he left that game, Greg Rosenthal actually mentions on Twitter that he did not leave the field for a single snap, while Diggs and Douglas were actually splitting opportunities there at 50%. But look, regardless, even though he left the field, he still led the Patriots in fantasy points, receptions, receiving yards with 103. And I know this sounds random, me talking about Kahan Boutte, but we started to see a Boutte breakout towards the end of last year. So I see this as a sign of potential things to come. And nothing is guaranteed on the waiver wire. You were always making a bet on what could be, not a guarantee, right?
So, check this out. This is the left side of your screen. That's weeks 1 to 14. The right side of your screen is weeks 15 to 18. You can see from weeks 15 onwards, he averaged 82% of the snaps last year. Six targets, 23% target share, 65 receiving yards, and almost a 10 yards per route run. So, he was already breaking out. And remember, at one point, Boutte was considered a top 10 draft pick in his class. uh he played at LSU and then he had a bad last year at college at LSU, but he was a five-star recruit right there with JSN uh coming out of high school. So, look, I'm not claiming that Boutte is going to be a star, but the last big year three breakout we saw was a super talented guy, you know, underperformed in college, Nico Collins. Do you remember that? So, I do think that if people are going to be really aggressive on Hollywood, I'm probably going to be less aggressive and try and sneak uh Boutte onto my squad.
All right, the third player we're going to look at is a tight end, Harold Fannon Jr. If you don't have a tight end that you feel solidified in your fantasy team, this is the guy that I would like to stash on my bench. I'm willing to put about 10% of my fab up. Um, I would be more aggressive, by the way, if you have no tight end that's solidified. I want to make something incredibly clear. This time last year, the number one waiver wire pickup for fantasy football was Isaiah Likely. That did not work out. Okay, so we need to recognize that just because it happened in week one for Fannon does not mean that it's a trend that will continue. We have to see multiple weeks for that to be a trend that we can rely upon. However, to see a third-round rookie, this guy was drafted in the third round, not the first or second round, a third-round rookie tight end being this involved, it's almost unheard of, genuinely. In his first ever game, he had 72.4% of the snaps. He ran a route on 67% of the routes run. and he was had a team-leading nine targets, a 22% target share. He had nine targets. He outproduced David Njoku, the veteran David Njoku, in targets, uh, receptions, receiving yards, uh, and obviously fantasy points at 13.3. And it's not like this is a guy at college that didn't produce. I mean, Fannon was one of the top producing not just tight ends, but receiving weapons in college football last year. 117 receptions, over 1500 receiving yards, almost 120 yards per game, he was Bowling Green's number one weapon, point blank period. So, because he is a rookie, and he did this so early, I'm very intrigued and I would love to stash him on my bench, but of course, I can recognize that it's not a guarantee.
All right, at number four, our first running back, Dylan Samson. Now, I'm willing to spend about 5 to 10% of my fab. And you might be confused, like, Zack, why are you not going to be more aggressive? Well, firstly, second-round pick Quinshon Judkins just signed his deal this last week and now he's going to report to the team. He's set to meet with the NFL this week and he could play in Baltimore next week, as in this week upcoming. So, look, Judkins is going to be a problem for Dylan Samson's. Judkins is not going to go away. He's an uber-talented guy, top 35 pick in the NFL draft. So, if Judkins wasn't in the picture, Samson would easily be my number one pickup and I would be more aggressive with my fab because in week one, he made Jerome Ford look like an afterthought. Uh, Samson led the running back room in targets, and in carries. He led running backs in fantasy points, receptions, receiving yards, and total yards with 93 total all-purpose yards. So, look, again, I would love to be more aggressive with Dylan Samson, but the reality is if you blow your fab, if you blow that load on Dylan Samson and then Judkins comes back, you're guaranteed to be in a split. Samson's not going to take over the workload entirely. You're going to be in a split in a bad offense. I think that's bad usage of your fab or your waiver wire bids if you need a running back. So, honestly, there's not a top clear running back that you can pick up this week that's going to just be a startable guy next week in my opinion.
Well, look, news is constantly changing. So, like the whole Quinshon Judkins thing, we're going to have to keep up to date with that throughout the entire week. And because news is constantly changing, so are my season rankings and my weekly rankings. The 2025 season pass on the Flock site is a must-have. Use the promo code LAND. It's a $34 one-time purchase when you use my code. It's about a dollar, about $2 per week for the rest of the season. You're going to get my season-long in-season rankings. Rest of season rankings. You're going to get a couple vouchers to come on the live stream and ask me questions, as well as all the premium tools on the Flock site like the trade calculator and etc. Okay.
All right, at 5A, let's talk about Cedric Tillman. There's a little group of receivers that I like here as like a cheaper pickup. I'm willing to spend about 5% of my fab so I don't want to be too aggressive. This is a guy that we suggested to stash with your last pick this offseason in some videos. And this week he tied Jerry Judy in snaps, uh, targets, receptions, and he was the only guy to have a receiving touchdown in that wide receiver room this year. And this might sound like an overreaction, but guys, last year before, uh, Cedric Tillman went down with the concussion. From week 7 to 11, he was with Jameis Winston, that's on the right side of your screen in that screenshot, and he was averaging almost 19 points per game, 91% of the snaps, 10 targets per game, and 75 receiving yards per game. So with the team that is going to constantly be down, Jerry Judy and Cedric Tillman could be flexible names moving forward. That is valuable.
All right, at 5B, let's talk about Quentin Johnston. I'm only willing to spend about 5% of my fab. I'm sorry, you might want to be more aggressive. Do your thing, but I'm still a little bit hesitant. Last year with Johnston, we saw three games over 22 fantasy points. The entire rest of the season, he averaged eight, eight points per game. So, we have seen him do this whole blow-up game thing before, and it's not been consistent. Yes, he had a fantastic game in Kansas City. Almost 25 points, 82% of the snaps, seven targets, two touchdowns. However, I believe number one, the Chargers won't be a team that is going to pass the ball 65% of their plays, which is what they did uh on Friday. And number two, I believe Lekeition and Keenan Allen will be more involved over the course of the year.
All right, at 7A, let's talk about Brenton Strange. If you don't get Harold Fannon, Strange is a sneaky add as well. 5% of my fab I'm willing to spend. In this game in week one, Strange played almost 80% of the snaps, 73% of the routes run, and about a 14% target share. However, I want you to keep in mind that almost all of his production came in the first quarter. Almost all of it. Think about it. They never needed to throw the ball after the first quarter. From the second quarter onwards, they were in control of this game. In fact, from the third quarter onwards, we're talking like 20 to 3, 23-3, 23-10, 26-10. There was never a moment where the Jags needed to throw the ball and they're not going to be favorites in every single game this year. So, I think Strange will be a a better like garbage time option in the future.
At 7B, let's talk about Kyle Pitts. Again, 5% of my fab. I'm not going too hard on most of these names, but if Drake London misses time, Kyle Pitts could be a pivotal part of this offense. Right now, London is day-to-day with that shoulder sprain. In week one, Kyle Pitts was second on the team in snap share. Uh, second on the team in routes run and second on the team in targets with almost a 21% target share. He had eight targets. Um, only Drake London had more. Now, of course, Darnell Mooney is going to come back at some point, so that will impact things as well, but Pitts looks like he could be an important part of the offense.
At 7C, this is really sneaky. This is your cheapest tight end buy in my opinion because people won't be talking about this name. I could be wrong, but Juwan Johnson. Spend two to 5% of your fab. Don't go hard. But if you go back and you look at Spencer Rattler's five starts in 2024 for the Saints, he absolutely peppered his tight ends consistently. He did not target his wide receivers more than his tight ends. So, if he continues to start Rattler, I could see Juwan Johnson being a legitimate streamable option. At the time of recording this video, he leads all tight ends in fantasy points in week one at 15.6. That's PPR points, by the way. And uh, also if you go and look at his week one game, he had 74 snaps, guys. He played 74 snaps. That's insane. The team had 75 snaps total. He played 74 of them. He ran 47 of 49 routes run. He had 11 targets. All right, a 27% target share. Ridiculous type of usage. And Spencer Rattler loves, and when I mean loves, I mean loves his tight ends.
All right, at 9B, let's talk about Calvin Austin. I'm willing to spend again two to 5% of my fab. Uh, awesome to see him get some work in week number one. He had 80% of the snaps, 86% of the routes run, and a 21.4% target share. But again, we need to see some consistency with this offense. I think some things, a lot of players in this week one list, there won't be consistency. So, that's kind of the the risk you're taking on the waiver wire. There's no guarantees. You're just trying to get the opportunity to improve your team to find another flex, you know, stashing a running back, a quarterback that you can start, guys that could break out. That's why I'm so high on like a Kahan Boutte, but we need to see some consistency in Pittsburgh, but I do think he's worth a stash.
At number 11, let's talk about DJ Giddens. Now, the only reason I'm talking about DJ Giddens is because there's, you know, this rumor about a potential injury for Jonathan Taylor. So according to this report, they didn't play Taylor towards the end of the game just as a precautionary thing. So most likely outcome is DJ Giddens is not worth your time. But if reports keep coming out that okay, JT's injury is actually a little bit more serious, then I think we need to start looking at DJ Giddens. He would be much higher on this list if JT misses this week even alone because a lot of you guys need a a running back that you can start. If JT is out, Giddens is a must-start each and every week. So, look, only going to, you know, add him as a free agent or 1% of my fab if I'm a JT owner just to be safe.
All right, at quarterback, you can add Penix and Jones, but be careful because Jones has a terrible matchup next week. So, I wouldn't really ride that train. Uh, with defenses, here are my favorite pickups: The Ravens versus the Browns in week two, the Rams at the Titans, the 49ers at the Saints, and the Patriots versus the Dolphins.
And here at this point in the video, you can see deeper league stashes in case you guys are in like your 14, 16 team type of formats. I am so hyped for week two. By the way, I know it's early, but I already set a lineup for a DFS fast draft Quick Six Super Slam. I'm starting Justin Jefferson versus the Atlanta Falcons. I've got a two-time uh bonus on his points. Bijan Robinson on the opposite side of that matchup. We've got CMC in there, Neighbors, Henry, and CD Lamb. This contest just launched over on Fast Draft. All you have to do is choose six non-quarterbacks and set your lineup. That's as simple as it can possibly be. Whichever lineup scores the most points wins that week. So, you got to get a little creative, right? If you've never downloaded Fast Draft yet, download the app, use my promo code LAND. I'll match your deposit up to $50. So, you'll get like five free Super Slams on me. And when you finish your first contest, I'll send you my weekly rankings for week two completely free.
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