Week 16 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Strategy (Every Matchup!)

Week 16, matchups that matter. Every matchup, every start, every set, everything you guys need to know to set your fantasy football lineups in week number 16.

Of course, it is the fantasy semi-finals. There's probably a lot of you guys out there either up in your matchup because you had Stafford or Puka or Kenneth Walker going or unfortunately you're down in your matchup because you played against some of those players.

So, let's not waste any time. The way that the games are structured in this week's slate is that we have two games kicking off on Saturday, 5:00 p.m. and I believe 8:20 p.m. Eastern. Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay, Chicago are those two games. And then at 1:00 p.m. we do have seven games in the 1 p.m. window. Four games in the 4:00 p.m. window and then a regularly scheduled Sunday night and Monday night game.

Let's kick it off with the 5:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff of Saturday football. Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Washington Commanders. On the road, the Eagles are favored by seven points. Philadelphia is implied for 25.75 points in this game. Washington implied for under 19. Even though the overunder of this game is 44 and a half, there is a lot of positive beacons pointing to the Eagles being very good starts in this one.

The straightforward thing about Philadelphia is that you know who to start on their team. Jaylen Herz is in your lineup as a top three quarterback for me this week. Saquon Barkley a top 10 running back for me this week. AJ Brown, Devonte Smith, both top 24 wide receivers for me this week with AJ Brown in my top 12 after scoring in four straight games. And then Dallas Goddard, who has nine touchdowns this season, is a top five tight end for me on the slate as well.

On the commander side of things, that's where kind of the decision points lie. Chris Rodriguez would be the first kind of decision point you'd have to decide upon because Chris Rodriguez has been limited in practice all week. It sounds like he will probably make his return. Um he was out last week and in his um absence, Shaori Kroski Merritt rushed for like a hundred yards. So does that factor into the workload? Does Chris Rodriguez only get 10 15 carries maximum or touches maximum because Bill has a bigger role? We don't really know at this point in time. It's not a great enough matchup for me to want to throw Chris Rodriguez out there unless I'm really desperate in doing so. Terry McLaren and Debo Samuels McLaren specifically is probably in your lineup. Just keep in mind Philadelphia has the best pass defense in football against fantasy football wide receivers. So Debo Samuels specifically you could probably leave on the bench if you have better options. And then if you need a defense, Philly's defense is in play as is their kicker Jake Elliot.

Stat of the game for this one is per ESPN, Quinan Mitchell aka Quinanimo Bay has not allowed a single reception in two games and he's allowed 0.2 yards per coverage snap, which is the quarterback version of yards per run. That's number one in the NFL since week 11. So, he is on an absolute tear. He isn't expected to shadow cover Terry McLaren in this game, but he will be on him about half of the time just by alignment. So, I would be a little bit worried about any commanders wide receivers if I had to start them. But, you probably have to play Terry McLaren as a top 30-ish, top 36ish wide receiver regardless.

Moving into Chicago and Green Bay. The Bears are at home for this one. Of course, we saw this matchup play out two weeks ago when Green Bay was at home for that game. And the Chicago Bears are one-point home favorites. Of course, no more Micah Parsons for the Green Bay Packers. He is now out for the season with a torn ACL. This game has the highest amount of steam on the over. Over 46 and a half. Definitely interesting. The Sharps really banging the over on that one. So, that's an interesting kind of development there. Could end up being a pretty high-scoring game.

Green Bay's DVOA advantage is actually the third highest on the slate versus Chicago's defense. So, even though Chicago is the team favored, I could see Green Bay be the team that actually wins this game. But, we'll see how big of an impact no Micah Parsons ends up having on this game. Jordan Love definitely in your lineup if you need a starting quarterback. He is a top 11 matchup for fantasy quarterbacks in this game. And it does look like the big kind of injury question marks coming into this game were Christian Watson, who was kind of limited in practice all week and should end up being good to go. and Josh Jacobs. Again, Jacobs is one of these guys that I just have different rules for as opposed to other people when I see like no practices and one limited practice. That casts doubt on a player's availability to play. But with Josh Jacobs, I know the dude's tough as nails. He's probably going to be out there and I'm not super worried about him. So, if you guys have Jacobs, I'd probably count on him being out there. And of course, he plays on Saturday, so you'll know before you have to make any other decisions whether or not he's playing. DeAndre Swift is questionable for this game, but I think he should be good to go against Green Bay's run defense, which is very, very solid. Um, the big injury thing for the Bears in this game is that we have no Romo Dun, we have no Luther Burden, and Cole KT enters this game questionable. He should go, but he is questionable coming into the game. So, that is a big time upgrade to DJ Moore, who I have ranked as a top 24 wide receiver this week given what he's done two of his last three games. He's got four touchdowns in uh his last three games, two of them in two each. And of course too, DJ Moore with no odun with no burden out there should be operating as the primary number one wide receiver. And Coloulston Lovelin also sees a big upgrade just because the lack of weapons that are healthy and of course KT the other tight end coming in a little bit questionable. If you do need a stream of kicker, I think Kyro Santos Santos is a pretty good option.

Stat of the game here is that the Packers allow the sixth lowest yards per carry when they stack the box. And I do think this is a game environment where they will stack the box because Caleb Williams is down two of his top receivers. Manengi and Swift both this season are top 20 in the NFL among all running backs with their average box defender count up at 6 and a half. So teams generally know you got to stop the run against Ben Johnson. It's impressive that they've still been able to run the ball as effectively as they have, but I do think the Packers could force Caleb if they can shut down the run in this situation. That's a big if against Ben Johnson, but if they're able to do it successfully, it wouldn't shock me if the Packers upset the Bears on the road here.

Moving into the 1 p.m. slate. Like I said, there's seven games in the 1 p.m. window. The first of which could decide the NFC South potentially. We have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus the Carolina Panthers. On the road, Tampa Bay. This is the first of two matchups that we will see them again in week 18. In between that, the Bucks play the Dolphins and the Panthers play at Seattle. So definitely advantage Tampa Bay as far as the matchup that they have going for them over the next couple of weeks. Tampa Bay is on the road for this game, which should be a huge edge if Carolina can win that home game and potentially put our backs against the wall. Tampa Bay is three-point road favorites in this one, which is a bit of a trap line if you ask me. Even as a Bucks fan, I'm a little worried about this game. Over under a 45 and a half, the over catching a little bit of the steam. Our DVOA advantage is much better than theirs though, 6.1%. That is 12th highest on the slate versus 27th for the Carolina Panthers.

Now, as far as who you're starting, there's a lot of fringe options in this game that are going to need to be decision points for a lot of people. Now, the way I see this game going is Baker Mayfield probably bounces back. With having all four of these wide receivers out there between Evans, Ibuka, McMillan, and Chris Godwin all out there now healthy, we are going to see a little bit more rotation at the wide receiver position than we've typically seen. I think between Godwin Ibuka and McMillan especially, we might see these guys down near like 70% of the routes each because they're not going to run four wide receiver sets the entire game. But that's good news for Baker Mayfield. If you have to start Baker Mayfield, I think he's in good shape here. Desperation flex of Bryce Young because it is a good matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, particularly rushing fantasy quarterbacks. And Bryce Young has been, you know, prone to run a little bit. Uh Bucky Irving has an excellent matchup on the ground, which I'll get to in the stat of the game, but he is definitely a startable asset this week. And Rico Dattle did regain his snap share and his workload back coming off of the buy in week 15. He had 67% of the total opportunities in snaps. So he is the preferred starter between these two running backs. Tedo McMillan definitely in play. You can probably start him with confidence. Mike Evans, same thing. He comes back has like 100 plus yards and I do expect him to kind of reestablish and assume that role as the number one receiver here. The fringe options here, if I had to rank them, you have Coker, who's been really good the last two games for the Panthers and has an easy matchup against Tampa Bay's secondary. Now, without Zion McCollum, who's on IR, it's basically just Jamal Dean out there. Acha Ibuka, Chris Godwin as the other two guys. Now, the way I have these guys ranked, they're all top 36 plays for me at wide receiver. I have Ibuka ranked the highest, then Godwin, then Coker. It wouldn't shock me if these guys finish in any which order. I do think that because Evans is back out there, Ibuka is going to reap those benefits and start to look like weeks one to five Amecha Igbuka when Mike Evans who was on a podcast recently talking about how differently teams were playing him this year and that's probably as a result of why Amecha Ibuka was so great at the beginning of the season. I do think he is due for a good game and I would start him in most situations. Uh you could sit both the tight ends in this game. Nobody's starting Kotten Sanders or whatever. And then if you need a defense, I think Tampa Bay's defense, even though it is on the road, is a decent one to go after because they're generally pretty fantasy friendly. They blitz a lot, which leads to sacks and turnovers and stuff. And uh Bryce Young's always capable of laying an egg. And then, of course, Chase Mclofflin also been very good from a fantasy perspective, too.

Stat of the game here is that the Carolina Panthers per Data Roma are sixth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed on gap rushing concepts. The Buccaneers run gap rushing concepts nearly half the time, which is a top three rate in the NFL. So, I do think the Bucks run game could be a big- time contributing factor for Tampa Bay maybe pulling off this win and putting themselves back in the driver's seat of the NFC South. Um, I like Bucky Irving to go higher than 64 and a half rushing yards as a result of that. If they could shut down the run though, this could be challenging for Tampa Bay.

Buffalo Bills taking on the Cleveland Browns on the road. Cleveland is very good at home, especially on defense. Buffalo uh 10 and a half uh point favorites on the road, which is a little bit of a sketchy total there, but we did see uh Chicago kind of make light work of of Cleveland even though they were at home last week as well. 41 and a half is the overunder. Kind of a hoham game environment. You only really care about the Buffalo players. 26 point implied total for uh the Buffalo Bills in this game.

Of course, you are starting Josh Allen who has a pretty okay matchup. Again, Cleveland very good at pressuring the quarterback. Buffalo's offensive line's going to have a big task on hand. Of course, Miles Garrett still chasing that record of TJ Watts and of Michael Strahands. James Cook against the Cleveland run defense. Bad matchup, but of course, you're starting him anyways because of how good he's been. Jerry Judy is expected to see shadow coverage from Christian Benford, assuming Christian Benford is healthy for this game, who's been very good in shadow coverage. So, that's a downgrade to um the Browns wide receiver one, but it is an upgrade to Harold Fannon Jr. who should um have another game of just monster volume. 14 targets plus a carry last week, 11 targets the week before that. Still no official word on whether or not David and Jooku will be active for this game. But if I had to guess, he hasn't practiced the last two games, he probably will be out for this one. So Harold Fannon is a top five tight end play. I would play him pretty much over every tight end not named Brock Bowers, George KD, or Trey McBride. Like if you want to decide between Fannon versus Goddard versus Pitts versus some of these guys, I would play Fannon over those players because Pitts has Drake London back and Goddard is a little bit hit or miss on the touchdowns. Um, Quinchon Judkins has a really good matchup as well, which I'll get to in a second. The Buffalo Bills are 30th against fantasy running backs. And even though Judkins had a dud last week in what was also a pretty good matchup for him, it looks like Dylan Samson is going to be out for this game yet again. And Jerome Ford was placed on IR a couple weeks back. So, um, we are looking at a big-time workload probably for Quinn Sean Judkins. And then if you need a streaming tight end, Daltton Concade, assuming he's healthy, is a very good option for you. However, he hasn't practiced the last two days. So if you're in need of a streaming tight end and Daltton Concincaid is out, Dawson Knox is absolutely within play even in what is somewhat of a tough matchup because you know other than Khalil Shakir really there's not a whole lot of established pass catchers on this team and Dawson Knox has been good when Concincaid has been out and even when Concaid's been on the field and limited Dawson Knox has actually been kind of like the preferred target of Josh Allen yardage-wise. So if you need a tight end streamer this week and Concade ends up being out I don't think Dawson Knox is a very bad option whatsoever. I'd probably start them over like Mark Andrews and Brett Strange and some of those type of options if you have them. Um, stream Buffalo's defense as well, even though it's on the road, it is still Shadur Sanders, the Cleveland Browns. They could take a bunch of sacks, turn the ball over, that kind of thing.

The Browns need a boost for their run game and their gap rushing success rate is the lowest in football. Yards per carry of just 2.91. The Bills are allowing the third most rushing yards per carry on gap runs this season at 5.83 yards per carry. So, I do think that this could be a game where Quinn Sean Judkins is getting right. Higher than 68 and a half rushing yards is the one that I'm rolling with here on Underdog, which is the second pick of our picky.

Moving into Dallas Cowboys taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Cowboys minus two at home in a dome in Jerry World here. Both teams implied for nearly 24 points or more. This game has the second highest overunder on the entire slate. Only the Packers and Lions being higher. It is up near 50 points at 49 and a half. The over is catching a tiny bit of the steam right now, too. And the pace of play is also very solid. The Chargers DVOA advantage top five. The Cowboys DVOA advantage top 13. So, if you need players from this game, this is a good game environment to be throwing players out there.

If you need a quarterback, I am very comfortable playing both of them. Whether it's Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert, they are both inside my top 13 quarterbacks, I believe, for the week. I do actually have Herbert ranked higher because Herbert has the much better matchup of the two, but both guys are definitely in play. Dak of of course more of a volume play, throwing the ball a lot more, but Herbert more of an efficiency play because of the matchup that he has. Javvante Williams and Amarian Hampton both in your lineup. Amarian Hampton with one of the best matchups you can possibly have. And I suppose if you're desperate as well, you could throw Kimoni Vidal out there too. Just keep in mind Amarian Hampton now kind of fully ramped up from those injuries. I do think he should be back to his full workload. Lad Mani, I know he's been bad, but this is a great matchup for him. He's had about a month now of really difficult matchups and I do think this could be a get-right game for him. So, make sure he is out there. He is ranked as a top 25 wide receiver for me even though he hasn't played like it the last month or so. Quinton Johnson, assuming he comes back is in flex consideration if he's out and Trey Harris who's also potentially out for this game. You could maybe throw Keenan Allen out there as a flex option as well. CD Lamb and George Pickins are going to be out there for you. A little bit of a difficult matchup for them, but I will talk about it in a second who has the better of the two. and then Jake Ferguson and Aronda Gatson. If you need a tight end, you guys watched me tweet out uh that I thought Kobby Parkinson was an industry plant. I ended up being right about that. Obviously only had 4.1 points on Thursday Night Football. A lot of people asked me, should I start Jake Ferguson or Kobby Parkinson? And I said Jake Ferguson and I'm glad I stuck to that because I do think he's now fully back off the injury report practicing in full. He should be ready to go. And Aronda Gatson, man, I had him right neck andneck with Kobe Parkinson, his top 16 plays this week. Um especially if QJ and Trey Harrison, some of these guys are out for this game. Aronda Gatson sees a nice upgrade. Had 61 receiving yards last week. Both kickers are inside my top three. Brandon Aubrey and Cameron Dicker, two of the best kickers in fantasy football. So they are absolutely in your lineup.

Stat of the game here is that Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Cam Hart has allowed the fourth most yards per snap covered this season. His primary matchup facing about 47 to 48% of the routes on Sunday will be George Pickkins, not CD Lamb. So, um, two of the Chargers quarterbacks have been very good this season. That being Dante Jackson and I can't remember the other guy's name, but in in yards per route covered, they are among the best in the NFL. But the weak link has been Cam Hart, who will primarily be on George Pickkins in this game. So, Pickkins could be slated for a nice bounceback.

Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Miami Dolphins. This is the Quinn Eer's first start, which as a Texas fan, I shudder to watch what that looks like. Uh, Bengals are four-point road favorites here. This one could move even more in the direction of the the Bengals. It wouldn't shock me if this is five or 5 and a half by the time we get to kickoff. The overunder is 47 1/2 points. The over catching about 1% of the steam here. The pace of play is decent. Miami's DVO advantage would be really, really solid if it wasn't for the fact that Tua is no longer starting at quarterback, which is really unfortunate for everybody involved because even though Tua hasn't played well, I think all of us can agree that he's a better quarterback than Quinners at this point in time.

Joe Burrow is uh in your lineup of course as a starting quarterback. People have asked me a lot of questions about him. Would I start Burrow or would I start Brassette? Would I start Lamar? Would I start Goff? All these guys that are in the range of Joe Burrow. I have Joe Burrow ranked the highest out of all of them. I have him ranked fourth only behind Jaylen Herz, Drake May, and Josh Allen this week in my quarterback tier list. Reason being is that I do think T. Higgins will be back for this game. Now, if T. Higgins is out for this game with the concussion that he's dealing with. He's still in the protocol. We'll see what happens on Friday afternoon's practice here. If he clears the protocol and he's good to go, then Joe Burrow will remain my quarterback for here. Now, if T Higgins is out for this game and you wanted to start Jacobe Brassette or Jared Goff or Lamar Jackson or somebody like that over him, I wouldn't blame you. Although, I still probably will have Joe Burrow ranked as quarterback for it. It'll just be a lot closer of a discussion. Devon Achan's going to be out there for everybody involved. I know it's bad that Quinners is starting, but he had a lot of good passcatching running backs at Texas. So maybe he feeds Devon Aan 8 to 10 targets in this one and you're able to get there kind of the way you got there last week which is all receiving volume, no efficiency or touchdowns. Chase Brown versus the Miami Dolphins. This is an easy easy matchup for him. Feel very good that if you guys go up against him, you probably want to be shuttering a little bit because I have a feeling he's going off in this one. Jaylen Wadd versus DJ Turner. Shadow coverage. You guys might not really know who DJ Turner is. He's not a household name, but he has been excellent in shadow coverage. And with Quinny starting, no two a tongue of Aloa and shadow coverage against DJ Turner. Jaylen Wadd is by no means a must start in this one. I have him as like wide receiver 30 this week. If you have other options, you can definitely sit him. Um Jamar Chase and T. Higgins, assuming T. Higgins plays, is a top both top 10 wide receivers on the slate for me. They are in your lineup. Darren Waller is my tight end, 14 or 15. I can't remember exactly where he settled in, but he is a great streaming option. Like I said, DJ Turner probably going to be on Jaylen Wadd like White on Rice. So Darren Waller could be the primary beneficiary of that. But I'm not sure that Quinn Urers even gets to 150 passing yards in this game even against this defense. But if he does, Darren Waller be a huge beneficiary of that. If you need a defense, Cincinnati's as bad of a defense as you can possibly be and on the road. But they are favored by four points and they are going up against Quinners who is a turnover prone quarterback and Evan McFersonson if you need a kicker is a good option.

The 11 receivers that DJ Turner has shadowed this season for the stat of the game here have averaged eight points per game in PPR leagues. Only two of them crossing 13 points. So airgo I will be taking the lower on Jaylen Waddles 10.05 half PPPR fantasy points because I do not think he is slated to have a good game in this one.

New Orleans Saints taking on the New York Jets. This game environment is going to be pretty much all Saints and no Jets. Like unless your name is Bree Hall, you are not finding my starting lineup. The game environment is pretty gross. 40 and a half point overunder. The Saints are implied for 23 points, which is pretty solid. And the pace of play is very high in this game. But again, the only players that I really consider starting in this one are on the New Orleans Saints.

Chris Ave, of course, every week starter, he is in your lineup. Jawan Johnson is inside my top 12 tight ends this week. I I do really love him as a very high floor play at the tight end position. He has four receptions in all of his last six or seven games if I'm not mistaken. Tyler Shuck if you're desperate. Now, a lot of people out there lost Patrick Mahomes, and I know Tyler Shuck is going to be a popular pivot option. I will get to quarterback streamers later on in the video. Spoiler alert, he is not in my top five, but he would be my number six. So, he is definitely a guy that you could use if you want to. Of course, Trevor Lawrence just tore this defense a new ass. Aric Estay versus the Jets run defense. Don't get carried away here. Audrey Esté is a good early down running back, but I do think Evan Hall could be as involved as he is half and half kind of backfield split. But if you do want to kind of play the upside that Estimate has 20 plus touches against one of the worst defenses and teams in the NFL, then I I do suppose that is a pretty good process play if you want to play him as a top 33 or so running back. That's about where I have him ranked. Bree Hall got to be in your lineup given how good he is and how much receiving work he can get. Um but definitely not a must. I have him as like running back 23 or 24 this week. Adai Mitchell I'm not messing with this week. Kool-Aid McKinstry and some of the Saints defensive players have actually been playing pretty well. So, I don't really want to start Adnai Mitchell. Even though Brady Cook did feed him last week, I think it's possible feeds him again. I just don't want to rely on a Jets wide receiver against the Saints who are a pretty decent pass defense with Brady Cook at quarterback in my fantasy semi-finals. Unless you are absolutely desperate, you should not start Adenai Mitchell. And then if you want to stream the New Orleans defense, they're one of the best on the slate and the kicker as well. Um the Irish kicker that they have has been pretty solid. So, if you want to throw him out there, I think he's my kicker 12 or 13 this week. So, he's a pretty good option. Um,

Stat of the game here is that the Saints defense has allowed more than 21 points just once in the past five games despite playing some good teams. Like, I mean, Carolina and Tampa Bay are their last two opponents who are fighting out for a playoff spot right now. So, the Jets being one of the bottom offenses in the NFL, I do think that is a recipe for one of the best defensive plays on the entire slate. So, the Saints defense definitely going to be in a great spot this week.

Minnesota Vikings taking on the New York Football Giants. The Vikings are three-point road favorites in this one. Of course, JJ McCarthy is playing a lot better. Jackson Dart versus JJ McCarthy. Both of these guys have minimal starting experience. This game could be very chaotic. Overunder of just 43 and a half points, but the over is catching a nice amount of the steam there. Pace of play is about average on the entire slate.

As far as who we're starting in this game, Jackson Dart got to be out there, man. He's running way way too much to not play him as a top 12 quarterback. I believe he's my quarterback 11 um on the slate if I'm not mistaken. And I did that in the quarterback tier list. JJ McCarthy is one of my preferred streaming options this week over a Tyler Shuck type. If you guys lost Patrick Mahomes or whatever reason you need to stream a quarterback, JJ McCarthy against the Giants defense is just shooting fish in the barrel. I know JJ McCarthy can be bad at times, but I do think that we could see Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hawinson. One of these guys is due for a half decent game. Jaylen Naylor and Josh Oliver can't do everything forever. So, we'll see what happens there. I do think JJ McCarthy is not a bad option. Tyrone Tracy a very solid option at the running back position. He regained his starting job. But I will say, don't get carried away with Tyrone Tracy because it looks like what happens in all of these Giants games as a Tyrone Tracy manager in my home league is they give a series to Singleary and Tracy at the beginning of the game and whoever's playing well gets the majority of the touches that week. Two weeks ago or three weeks ago before the buy that was Singleary. Last week that was Tracy. It's a little up and down. It's the hot hand approach. Minnesota is a much better run defense up the middle. So maybe you feel good about Tracy being the guy who's more of the pony back, the scat back who could catch some passes in space. But just don't get carried away with Tyron Tracy. He's a top 24 running back for me, but I'm not going to play him as like a top 16 running back this week because he had a big performance and two touchdowns last week. Aaron Jones and even a desperation play of Jordan Mason are absolutely in play given how bad the Giants run defense has been all season. Wandell Robinson versus the Minnesota secondary. They're pretty good against slot receivers. So definitely not a good sign for Well Robinson, but given his target share, you probably got to throw him out there. Justin Jefferson and even a low-end flexworthy Jordan Addison versus the New York Giants quarterbacks are in play. Again, I know how bad they've been. I know how terrible Jefferson especially has been given who he is. He's Justin Jefferson. He was drafted in the top six, seven of fantasy football drafts. Justin Jefferson to me, the way I look at this, everybody, it's so easy to rank Justin Jefferson as wide receiver 41 in my rankings and tell you not to start him. But you know what? When you're gun, when you're staring down the barrel of the gun and you got to sit Justin Jefferson in the fantasy week 16 semi-finals, I can't do it. He's still Justin Jefferson. I get it. He hasn't been good. He hasn't been getting the targets. He hasn't been making plays, but he's still Justin Jefferson. I'm starting him as a top 24 wide receiver in our listener reddraft league against Danny. And I I just feel I feel confident doing it. I know he hasn't been good, but I will know that I went down swinging with one of the best wide receivers ever. Um not playing, you know, Jaden Reed over him or whatever. That would be the decision point that I have specifically in the listener read draft league. I'm not doing it. I think Justin Jefferson is too good to be on my bench regardless of how bad he's playing. Theo Johnson a good streaming tight end. Desperation on TJ Hawinson if you want to, but I probably wouldn't mess with it. Giants defense in play because they are at home for this game even though Minnesota is favored. So again, not a very strong defense play when the Giants are not favored to win the game and they haven't been good on defense in general. But JJ McCarthy is always live to have some turnovers, throw a pick six, whatever the case is. Minnesota's kicker, Will Riker, is also live in this game. They're implied for 23.25 points.

Stat of the game here is the Giants might be a bad defense, but JJ McCarthy just played two good games against non-b blitzing teams. Now, the Blitz has been JJ McCarthy's bugaboo. It's been horrible for him. He has the lowest quarterback rating in the NFL against the Blitz. 6.5 quarterback rating against the Blitz. The Giants blitz at a top three rate in football at 41% of their drop back. So even though they have not been a good defense tendencywise, they could disrupt JJ McCarthy's timing.

Moving into the next window, or actually, sorry, this is the last game of the 1 p.m. window. Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Tennessee Titans. Kansas City is implied for 20.25 points. Tennessee implied for 17.25. this game environment I can breeze through really quick because it sucks. 37 and a half point overunder, no Patrick Mahomes in this game. Probably no Rashi Rice in this game as well.

So on the Kansas City side, that is an upgrade to Travis Kelce's target share with no Rashi Rice out there. And an upgrade and in flex territory now is Xavier Worthy who has a degaffer of a quarterback Gardenner Mchu who could stretch the field vertically in this game. And if you need to play Xavier Worthy, I don't blame you. I'm actually going up against him. Zach is playing him against me in the Flock League Toilet Bowl semi-final. Um Xavier Worthy, if you need him, you can throw him out there. Kareem Hunt is getting the goal line work. You can kind of just hope for a touchdown for him. He's a top 36 running back for me, but not an exciting option.

On the Tennessee uh side of things, you're not going to be playing Cam Ward, obviously, but you can probably flex Tony Pard. He's been uh he's led the league in rushing yards the last two weeks. Um so he's actually been pretty good on the ground, although he kind of feels like a trap this week. And then all Tennessee Titans wide receiver Shamir DK I maner all those guys not going to be in my lineup. Kansas City's defense and Tennessee's defense given the overunder of this game. I think both defenses are live to be played. Whoever you think is going to win the game if you had a choice between these two defenses. I would just play that defense. I think Tennessee at home at Nissan Stadium. It's possible they could take down Kansas City with Gardenner Mchu, but I do think Kansas City's defense is the better unit. So I'd probably play them if I had the choice.

Stat of the game here. As I made reference to already, the Titans are fifth in success rate their last two games on the ground and Pard has the most rushing yards in the NFL in that stretch. However, the Chiefs are a top five run defense by every metric. Success rate, EPA, all that kind of stuff. So, I do think that we will see Tennessee's run game down uh come down to earth a little bit.

Moving into the 400 p.m. window, we have the Atlanta Falcons taking on the Arizona Cardinals. The Falcons are three-point road favorites in this one, which I I literally just had to double check that that was correct and I didn't mistype it, but they are three-point road favorites in this one. The overunder of this game, this game could end up being a shootout. 48 and a half or 48 points, 48 1/2 in some locations. Over is catching the steam of 3% of the cash that the Sharps are liking there. Pace of play is top five on the slate. Both offenses have a slight DVOA advantage, or I guess Atlanta's offense has a slight DVOA advantage. Arizona's defense not so much. The only thing that could disrupt Arizona's offense, honestly, is that the Falcons do have a good pass rush. We saw what that looked like against Tampa Bay last week on Thursday Night Football.

But pretty much you're starting everybody in this game, man. Beun Robinson's obviously an every week starter. Michael Wilson is an every week starter at this point in time. Jacobe Brassette is a top six quarterback for me. So, if you're wondering, should I start Jacobe Brassette over Blank, unless their name is Joe Burrow and T. Higgins plays, maybe Jared Goff in the Detroit Lions. I do have Jared Goff ahead. And then that's pretty much it. You want to start Jacobe Brassette over Lamar Jackson, over Dak Prescott, over even Matthew Stafford who played yesterday. I would have started Jacobe Brassette over him. Obviously, Stafford had a great game, so that didn't really age too well. But Jacobe Brassette, it's an every week starter at this point in time. The questionable kind of who do who do you play kind of guys in this one. Also, Drake London and Kyle Pittz are every week starters at this point as well, assuming Drake London is back, which he should be. Kyle Pittz sees a bit of a downgrade because he was kind of playing that Drake London role. But given the matchup that they're 28th against fantasy tight ends and Trey McBride of course is an every week starter as well. You got to throw Kyle Pitts out there. The real decision points I think are going to be Michael Carter who is slated to start. We got a report coming out today about that. And also he catches a lot of passes and we know that the Cardinals drop back like 45 times a game. So Michael Carter could get a 10-point fantasy day just off the back of five receptions. He could have a bad game altogether and just get there on the back of receptions. So, I do think Michael Carter is a top 30 play at the running back position if you need one. And then Marvin Harrison Jr., he's the questionable guy right now. He's limited in practice on Wednesday with the heel injury, limited on Thursday with the heel injury. If he ends up playing, let's say practices in full today or whatever, and he ends up going, I do have him as a top 30 wide receiver. The decision point for me in the flock league specifically is going to be Amecha Igbuka, who's been really bad, or Marvin Harrison Jr. And for me, I mean, the matchup is much better for Marvin. And I do think that it's possible that he has, you know, a really nice bounceback performance. So, that's going to be a tough one. Um, keep an eye on Marvin Harrison Jr.'s usage.

Drake London stat of the game here is that his slot usage when he's been on the field has been a thing of beauty. Postby for the Atlanta Falcons and before the injury since week eight, he's actually the wide receiver one in points per game. I know it's a small sample size, but Drake London before that injury was on an absolute tear. slot cornerback Garrett Williams for the Arizona Cardinals allows the second most fantasy points per route run um for their team. So, this is a quarterback that is exploitable and when they move Drake London into the slot, I expect him to be effective.

Denver Broncos taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is probably the best game of the week or at least one of the best games of the week for playoff implications. The Broncos are three-point home favorites here. 46 and a half point overunder. The pace to play 28.1 which is second on the entire slate. Um the DVOA advantages and disadvantages are not great because both of these defenses are quite good. So I will caution some people on just throwing everybody in this lineup um from this game, but the every starters absolutely you could throw B Nicks out there as a top 15 quarterback. Travis ETN and RJ Harvey are both every week starters at running back given the touches and the workloads that they're getting. Those are both top 15 running back plays for me even though it's tough matchups. Jacobe Meyers has probably one of the better matchups on the field, which I'll get into in the stat of the game because Brian Thomas is expected to see shadow coverage from Patrick Certan. Even though Brian Thomas has played better as of late, he is by no means a must start. If you're deciding between like a Mecha Ibuka, Brian Thomas in the flex, maybe like an Ashen Genty or a Rico Da or something like that. I think I'd probably sit Brian Thomas in all of those situations because of Patrick Certan's ability to wipe out the top receiver. Um Courtland Sutton also in play. Jacksonville has been pretty exploitable on the boundary against wide receivers. So, I think Courtland Sutton's not not a bad one. Don't play Troy Franklin or Pat Bryant or any of the other ancillary wide receivers, but just keep in mind Sutton is in a pretty good spot. Uh, desperation play on Bretton Strange if you needed one. I I suppose he has the best matchup on the field of all the Jacksonville pass catchers other than Jacobe Myers. Um, and if you need to stream a defense, Denver's defense a very good one. And Jacksonville's kicker, Cam Little, who's been one of the best kickers in the league, especially over the last six or seven games since their buy. He has been the number one kicker in fantasy. Cam Little's got to be out there for you.

Stat of the game here is there's not a lot of holes to the Denver defense. Everybody knows this, but one hole that they do have on intermediate outside the numbers receptions. Jacobe Myers is 11th in the NFL with 35 intermediate targets this year. And all the guys that he's ranked amongst are guys that have like way more targets than he does in totality on the season like the Aman Raz and Pukas of the world. So we're talking about a guy who has like 42% of his total targets come intermediate. I think Jacobe Myers goes well beyond 56 and a half receiving yards in this game. So I absolutely love him as a start this week. That'll conclude our pick entry if you guys want to tail it. Link down below in the pin comment to do that and I'll go over the promos at the end of the video.

Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers. This game the highest overunder on the slate of 52 points. The over catching the steam here, 4% of the cash. Detroit's DVOA advantage is a top six matchup advantage on the slate. Jared Goff's in your lineup. Ammonra's in your lineup. Jameson Williams is in your lineup. Jir Gibbs is in your lineup. And of course, you're not starting any of the tight ends now for the Detroit Lions without Sam Leaporta out there. If you want a desperation flex, David Montgomery, I suppose you could do that. As far as like who has the best matchup on the field, I'll get to that in the stat of the game. Um, but spoiler alert, it is a Monroth St. Brown. Uh, Jir Gibbs of course has been kind of an every other game spike week king. So, if you play Jir Gibbs this week, unfortunately, this is the game that he should go off in because he's been the every other week guy.

Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren is going to be a mess for people to sort through. I think if you think about it logically, the Detroit Lions are very good against opposing fantasy running backs. They're second inadjusted fantasy points allowed. when you actually look at what they've been good at versus what they've been bad at as opposing run defense is concerned, the Detroit Lions are allowing, I believe it is the seventh fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs and some teams just straight up abandon the run against them as well. Um there's a plenty of teams that'll just stop running the football entirely against them. But they've also been pretty good at defending passcatching running backs as well, which obviously would be Kenneth Gainwell's wheelhouse. And they haven't allowed a single receiving touchdown this season. So, generally speaking, I think it's easy to look at this and go, "Oh, this is a Gainwell game." They're good against interior rushing defense. Jaylen Warren's going to have a hard time. Ergo, they're going to throw seven times to Kenneth Gainwell like Aaron Rogers has been prone to do this season. Um, but they are pretty good against passcatching running backs as well. But I do actually prefer Kenneth Gainwell of the two of them because I do think logically they're probably going to lose this game Pittsburgh. They're going to be down seven points according to the spread of the game. And I think Kenneth Gainwell can rack up five, six, seven, eight potentially receptions and targets um from Aaron Rogers because that's been his role in the offense. And of course, if you do need a quarterback, Jared Goss, the top five quarterback for me this week. Only Joe Burrow is the only other quarterback other than Drake May, Jaylen Herz, and Josh Allen that I would start over Jared Goff. He is an excellent matchup this week. Aaron Rogers, one of the top streaming options available. He is in the top five streamers for me, which I'll get into in a bit. If you lost Patrick Mahomes, he's a very good option for you. DK Metaf very good option, very good matchup for him. The Detroit Lions secondary decimated by injury and they give up the most big plays in air yards per attempt in the NFL. So that screams DK Metaf game. Both kickers in play, Chris Boswell and Jake Bates given the high overunder of this game.

Stat of the game here is the Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers, which giddy up. I'm on Ross St. Brown like I made reference to already.

Las Vegas Raiders taking on the Houston Texans. I can breeze through this one really fast because this game is uninteresting. 38 point overunder, 26.25 of those going to the Houston Texans. Now, this uh line probably shifts a little bit with Gino Smith, who I think probably will be back to start this game. Keep that in mind that if Gino is out there, which he should be, um this game environment and the line could shift down to like Texans minus 12 and a half or something like that. Either way, you're probably only starting Houston Texans player. CJ Strad is inside my top 18 quarterbacks. if you lost Patrick Mahomes, he's a very usable quarterback play.

Woody Marks, who was not practicing on Wednesday, nor was he practicing on Thursday. I will give you guys a live update. What are we expecting from Woody Marks um in this game environment? I am going up against him um with Zack having him in the Flock League matchup there. He is working off to the side on Friday. Now, I think that'll qualify probably as a limited um capacity practice on Friday. Um definitely something to keep in mind. If you have Woody Marks, make sure you have maybe Jaw Jordan stashed or at least a pivot option of some kind because if he's limited today after not practicing Wednesday and Thursday, unless your name is Josh Jacobs, which I already kind of made reference to, you usually don't play on Sunday. If you only got in one limited practice on Friday, but just keep in mind Woody Marks, if he plays and he's ready to go and he's not on a pitch count, he should be in your lineup because he has a great matchup.

Ashton Genty, given his workload, you got to throw him out there. But it is a tough matchup against the Houston run defense. He's a top 24 running back for me this week though, even though I think a lot of people want to sit him. Nico Collins and a desperation shout to Jaden Higgins versus the Las Vegas secondary. They're set up for a very good matchup. Sit all the Las Vegas wide receivers against the Houston secondary. You don't want to [ __ ] with that.

The tight ends both interesting. Both inside my top 12 this week. Brock Bowers, who a lot of people were talking a lot of [ __ ] about him on Twitter saying they'd start Colobby Parkinson and Darren Waller and Coulson Lovelin, some of the guys over Brock Bowers. I just can't do it, man. Same as I said for Justin Jefferson. I get being like, "Hey, I want to rank Brock Bowers lower because he hasn't been as good and maybe Gino doesn't play and that kind of thing, but it's way harder to sit Brock Bowers if you have him in your fantasy league than it is for me, some Joe Schmo on YouTube to rank them tight end 10 on the week. I'm giving you guys advice. I'm trying to tell you who I would start and that is how I do my rankings. I do not do my rankings based on who I think will finish where because there's a difference. If you do your rankings like that, you're going to knock down players who are very good options, who you just think will have a down performance. I don't do rankings like that. I do my rankings based on who I would start. And Brock Bowers is my tight end. Three on the week because only George KD and Trey McBride are tight ends I would com I would feel comfortable sitting Brock Bowers for which nobody is going to have that decision point. So Brock Bower has got to be in your lineup. I know he hasn't been great as of late. He's got that one big game and pretty much that's it. and the Raiders project terribly, but you got to throw him out there. He's probably going to get the targets, especially with the secondary being laser focused on those wide receivers because they are just absolutely in a horrendous matchup.

And then Daltton Schultz, who's been pretty much since the buy a top 10 tight end in like more than half of his games. Um, he is a very valid streamer in this game because the Texans are implied for the majority of the points. And then of course the number one defense on the slate, the Houston Texans, the number one kicker or the number two kicker I believe on the slate for me, Kaami Fairbar. guys. Very, very good special teams options.

Stat of the game here is that the Raiders O line is allowed 54 sacks, which leads the league. They now get the highest pressure rate team in football and the Raiders are one and five against the spread in their past six road games. So, the Texans defense, fire it up. It is the best defense in fantasy this week.

Baltimore Ravens taking on the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football with Chris Collinssworth and Mike Taro. Vegas apparently giving the Ravens the three points here, which is interesting because I do think that in a neutral site the Patriots would probably be favored by three or four points. So, the fact that the Ravens homefield advantage is being valued that highly is just interesting in my opinion. The overunder of this game is 48 points. The overcatching 5% of the steam. Baltimore and New England both with top 10 DVOA advantages against the opposing defense. This is a game environment where you feel pretty comfortable starting most of the players.

Drake May and Lamar Jackson both top seven quarterbacks for me. Drake May a top three quarterback. If you had to decide between the two of them, I would pick Drake May. Uh Trevon Henderson, very good matchup for him. Of course, coming off of just the monster blowup performance that he had last week against the Buffalo Bills. Pretty good matchup yet again for him. Derrick Henry, the Ravens can't do anything in the red zone. They got to get this guy going, which I'll get to in the stat of the game, but he does have a tough matchup against the Patriots run defense that is top six in the NFL.

Z Flowers expected to see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez. Although they do give him a lot of design touches and move him around the formation. So I would say about half the time he's probably not going to have Gonzalez on him. So I'm not really worried about not starting him. He's been pretty solid the last two games. Stefon Diggs versus the Baltimore secondary. Stefon Diggs 25th against fantasy football wide receivers the Baltimore secondary is. So you're going to be playing Stefon Diggs as a top 24 to top 30 guy. Hunter Henry and Mark Andrews are low-end streamers for me. I wouldn't get too excited about playing them. Of the two of them, I prefer Henry because of the targets, but I think Andrews has a good chance to find the end zone in this game. And then both kickers, Andy B and Tyler Loop are inside my top 12.

Stat of the game here, the Ravens biggest issue has been scoring in the red zone per ESPN. They rank 31st at converting in the red zone just 44% of the time. The Patriots are 75% touchdown rate, dead last in red zone defense. So, this is the game that the Ravens will get back on track. I promise you. I hope it's true because I need it badly in my flock league matchup. I need that Lamar Jackson and Z Flower stack to go off.

Moving into the Monday Night Football game here, we have the San Francisco 49ers. They will be taking on the Indianapolis Colts. Of course, the Philip Rivers led Indianapolis Colts. This is a game environment where the 49ers are favored by six points. They're implied for 26.25, which is a really solid number if you're starting 49ers players. The overunder is 46 1/2 points. the overcatching a little bit of the steam there. Both offenses have DVOA advantages, but keep in mind the Indianapolis DVOA is not nearly accurate because since Daniel Jones has gone down and even before that, they have not been nearly the offense that they were earlier on in the season. So, I would say if I had to estimate where they would actually be on that number, it's probably like 15th as opposed to second like it says there.

Um, on the 49ers side of things, you are starting CMC, you are starting Brock Pury, who was a top six quarterback. That's the other guy that I was forgetting in that tier with Burrow and with Brassette and with Goff and all those guys. Brock Perie is up there with those guys as well. Christian McCaffrey probably going to do his thing through the air. Justin, uh Jonathan Taylor, um this game environment actually stacks up quite well for him. Fred Warner, uh his injury with the 49ers has really led to them being a leaky run defense. So, I do think San Francisco will give it up to Jonathan Taylor on the ground and he probably has 20 plus touches in this game.

Ricky Piol is not 100% ruled out yet, I don't believe, but Jawan Jennings should be alone for the most part in that wide receiver core. He is a top 24 play for me at the wide receiver position. He needs to be in your lineup. I would start him over the likes of Amecha Bua, Jaylen Wadd, some of those type of players. Michael Pitman, not a very good matchup for him, especially with the way that Rivers look throwing the football. I just don't really trust that he's going to throw for like 250 plus yards or something like that. Um, so if you want to flex Michael Pitman as a top 36 play, that's about the highest I could get on him.

George KD and Tyler Warren both in play at the tight end position. George KD a top two tight end for me. Everybody knows that. Everybody's starting him. But Tyler Warren, a lot of people asked me, Kobe Parkinson or Tyler Warren, Darren Waller or Tyler Warren, Coulson Love or Tyler Warren? I have Tyler Warren ranked over all of them except for Coulson Lovelin. So that is the way that I was approaching that question.

San Francisco defense versus Indianapolis uh offense is also a very good matchup. Again, don't pay too much attention to how they've ranked this season because Indianapolis was a much better um offense earlier on in the season. Um the Colts, the stat of the game here is that the Colts haven't scored less than 20 points in four straight games. They're coming into this game with three straight games of less than 20 points since 2017. So, I do think that we could see a small bounce back for the Colts offense here. Just keep that in mind if you are starting some of those players.

Um, moving into the uh pick entry to give you guys a quick recap, we had Bucky Irving higher than 64 and a half rushing yards, 60 and a half rushing yards for Quinchon Judkins, lower than fantasy points of 10.05 half PPR for Wadd because of that DJ Turner matchup. And then Jacobe Myers with all those intermediate targets. I like him to go higher than 56 and a half receiving yards.

Quick reminder that underdog has unwrapped going on. So tonight you can use a Jake Paul boost. You can use a different 40% profit boost on tomorrow. um if you guys are doing uh you know college football pick them or whatever for the playoffs and of course there is also a Josh Allen gimme pick live in your lobbies right now and there will be unwrapping promos all week leading up to Christmas and leading up to New Year's Eve as well. So, um, if you guys are interested in tailing our entry, getting access to some of those promos, code users of FSE, FSE, get 50% back on their first deposit, plus $75 in bonus entries on their first play of at least $5 and the link down below in the description to get signed up over there.

Moving into the streamers, I know I've gone a little bit long on this one, but I want to make sure we are thorough with week 16 because a lot of you guys are uh relying on me to give you guys the information to help set your fantasy football lineups. These are my streaming quarterbacks in order of how I would start them. So, if you lost Patrick Mahomes, if you lost some of these other quarterbacks or whatever the case is, you've just been streaming. If these guys are available in this order, I would pick them up like this. Jordan Love against the Bears. He is widely rostered, but keep in mind, he has a very good matchup. CJ Strad versus the Las Vegas Raiders, Bryce Young versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, JJ McCarthy at the New York Giants, Aaron Rogers at the Detroit Lions. Like I said, Tyler Shuck would be the next name after those guys.

Streaming tight ends. if you need a tight end streamer this week. Coloulston Lovelin, the premier option, who's still available in enough leagues that he shouldn't be available in. Daltton Schultz versus the Raiders, a very good option. Jawan Johnson versus the Jets, a very good option. Darren Waller is going to be the cream of the crop for a lot of people versus Cincinnati. But again, because of Quint Eers, I did downgrade him a little bit. And then a Ronda Gadson at the Dallas Cowboys, also a very good option.

If you need defenses, top five defenses for me, like I said, Houston Texans the cream of the crop this week. Buffalo Bills at Cleveland, Philly at Washington, Kansas City at uh Tennessee, Denver at Jacksonville, San Francisco at Indianapolis, Minnesota at New York, um New Orleans versus the New York Jets, Arizona versus Atlanta, and then Seattle locked into this as my defense number 10. But I also do like the Cincinnati Bengals going up against Quint, my defense number 11. New York Giants versus the Minnesota Vikings, my defense number 12, and Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers to close out my top 15.

And then my top 10 kickers here, Brandon Aubrey versus the Los Angeles Chargers. Ka Fairbar versus the Raiders. Cam Dicker at the the Dallas Cowboys in that same game. Jason Meers locked in there at kicker number four, which is unfortunate. He didn't really have that great of a game. Chase Mclofflin number five. Cam Little number six. Tyler Luke number seven. Eddie Pinero in my number eight. Andy B number nine, and Chris Boswell number 10. And Kyro Santos is my number 11. Riley Patterson my number 12. Evan McFersonson my number 13. Harrison Meas locks in as number 14 and then Jake Bates my number 15.

So those are the matchups that matter. Everything you guys should have needed to know to set your fantasy football lineups this week in week 16. Good luck to everybody. If I've helped you all year, leave me a like down below. These videos take me hours of preparation. Leave me a like. Subscribe to the channel if you guys have been getting some information from these videos all season. Really, really appreciate that. Stay tuned for the wide receiver tier list later today. And um on tomorrow morning, early in the morning, probably like 9, 10, 11 a.m., I'll try and drop the running back tier list because of course we do have games at 5:00 p. p.m. Eastern. So I'll make sure within a couple of hours at the very least you have that running back tier list out in case you have decision points in that game. So appreciate you guys for tuning in. Thank you for sticking to the end. Peace out. I'll talk to you soon. You beat me.