Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are doing well. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Monday, November 17, 2025, in front of a slightly red crypto map. So, not so catastrophic today. It's pretty calm for a Monday. In any case, we could have expected worse. The market is still in the extreme here. But that's very good news. Bottoms are created in extreme zones. The last time we spent quite a few days in the extreme, it created the famous $000 bottom and then boom, it took off again to new historical records. So, this is good news that we are in extreme fear. Moreover, we see that the trend is starting to weaken a bit. So, November not very pretty. November so far, minus 13% while on average it's +41%. So instead of having October, Moon October, we had Bear October and instead of having Moonvember, we're going to have Donvember if you like, or Bearvember. Well, it's not a big deal. We must not forget that behind, and I talk about it in all the morning news videos, there are good fundamental news coming. There will be liquidity injection. There will be rate cuts everywhere. There's Trump who will want to send $2,000 to everyone, who will also want to print a bit for his $4,000-5,000 billion plan. It's also printing in some countries, whether it's Japan, China, Canada, pretty much everywhere. I talk about it in the news video. So, personally, I think we just need to wait for this bad period to pass and for the re-printing, the quantitative easing with rate cuts, all that, it will come. It's, if you like, the dressed-up printing presses that will work and then it will be rather pretty. So, it's not a big deal if for now we have October, November, December that isn't top-notch. Well, regarding altcoins, another small red candle, but hey, we see that the momentum here is weakening, and we see it on the MACD, you see that the bear momentum is weakening. So, that's good news, it's a small momentum, it's not as violent as there. So, it's not bad. We have a nice divergence here with the price that has fallen significantly since, well, since quite some time, for a few weeks, and you see that the MACD is starting to lose momentum, meaning the bears are getting more and more tired. Is that normal? Yes, it's normal. At some point, when they've sold what they wanted to sell, well, they have nothing left to sell. I sent you an analysis a few hours ago on the different social networks, whether it's Telegram, Discord, and Twitter. You have the link in the description where you see that 150,000 bitcoins were sent at a loss last week, it was a peak, you see. So, at some point, well, when they stopped selling, they don't sell anymore, and we don't forget, I've been telling you for quite a few days, well, I'm just repeating what I see, I'm not making anything up. It's bullish divergences that are increasingly appearing. These bullish divergences don't mean that it's good, the bottom is here, to the moon. These bullish divergences create strong bases, if you like. When sellers try to sell, boom, it creates a base. And so, it really needs to be violent to break the bases. At some point, the more bullish divergences you have, at some point, it creates a good solid base and bam, it stops the decline and boom, it takes off again. So, we are starting to have more and more bullish divergences. In short, it's starting to smell a bit like a bottom. I say smell because I'm not saying today is the bottom. If the bottom is to be found, it will be in a week or 10 days, you see. But in any case, it's not bad. It's starting to be interesting to see that. We don't forget that to validate the structure, we would need to go up another +11% even. So, compared to the current candle, we would need to go up +10%. There, a little +10% and the structure is validated. That is to say, at any moment, after breaking the bottom of the wick, remember that famous wick from October 10th. A legendary wick, a huge wick, and unfortunately, very often wicks, we will test them, I told you, because that's what we usually see, well, for years. So, we are not at all surprised to see the market wanting to retest the wick. Another -10% on average. Some will do less, some will do more, and then it will start to be rather pretty. Well, so for now, we see that the decline is weakening, and that's rather good with all these divergences appearing on our Bitcoin chart. For now, there are no major bullish divergences like we would like, but at some point, I think they will arrive. What we see on our Bitcoin chart is that it is in oversold territory. And as I've been telling you for years and years, for decades and centuries, when we are in overbought territory here, that's where investors take profits, and some will regret not having taken some profits. And here, I'm telling you the opposite, when we are in oversold territory, some will regret not having made their little purchases. A little salted butter Satoshi, a little strawberry Satoshi, a little lemon Satoshi, it never hurts. Satoshis are good for your health. Don't forget, per day, you need to eat five fruits and vegetables and 10 little Satoshis, well, fruit and vegetable flavored or fruit and vegetable taste. There you go, if you like. Well, so here, we see a small red candle today. The gap, I put that there, but I'm moving it down. We are not far from the gap. This famous gap to be filled at -1.82%. We are on the gap. So, here, I'm perhaps doing a daily analysis. If you want to see the long-term weekly analysis where you would like answers to know if we are still in a bull run, not in a bull run, in a bearish trend or not. Well, if you want a zoom out, go watch yesterday's video, I really go through quite relevant indicators, I go through all that. I think if you watch yesterday's video, you'll get your own idea about that. Well, so here, look, it's going down right now as I'm making the video. Another -60% and we close the gap. So, it would be good to go and close this little gap. I want to say, finally. And at some point, don't forget, we are on a large bearish channel, and bearish channels, the vast, vast, vast majority of the time, boom, they explode upwards. Okay? So, not far from the channel, small divergences appearing on the altcoins, I find that quite interesting. For now, well, the bears are there, they have a bit of a problem. Being in oversold territory here below the RSI, it hasn't lasted long. Bitcoin never stays very, very long in oversold territory, clearly in terms of liquidity. So, there's a small cluster to eat here, you see, around $91,000. Now, can it stop at $92,000 and boom, go back to destroy its $10 billion towards $106,000? Yes, but can it go for $90,000 or even $85,000? Be careful, it's not impossible to stop at $92,000, it can go straight away. It has the right to go even to $85,000. $85,000 is the 38% Fibonacci retracement. It's a very important level. So, well, we'll see yesterday's video. We were talking about the long term. Regarding Ethereum, Ethereum, like the altcoins, it's starting to be really not bad. Why? Because there are many bullish divergences emerging more and more. And as I was telling you this summer when Ethereum was at $4950, and I was harping on about "beware of nuclear bearish divergence, Ethereum is not good at $4950" because many analysts on social media were saying "to the moon, Bitcoin is taking off, the rocket is going to $7000, $8000, $10000" but no, the rocket wasn't taking off, the rocket had no more fuel, that's enough, you see, there were so many technical alarms flashing red that it didn't look good. Now, I'm starting to tell you the opposite, which is that green lights are starting to flash, beautiful bullish divergences are appearing. All of this helps to support the decline and create a bottom. So, as I know, I'm repeating myself, but I'm not saying the bottom is right now, but it's starting to smell like it. Well, for Ethereum to reach the gap it has here at $2853, it needs a small -7%. So, can it go and reach the gap? Yes, clearly it can. Well, in any case, there are beautiful divergences emerging on the RSI, on the MACD, all that, it's very good. Does it just want to fill its little gap and that's it, in the end, we'll have finished this zigzag channel and boom, the explosion. But it remains very possible, knowing that it too, doesn't have much left to eat downwards in terms of liquidity. There's a little bit up to $3000. Now, it can nibble up to $2800 to reach the gap, but there's nothing left. However, to the north, that's where the majority of liquidity is now, right. Regarding Solana, same thing, same analysis. Solana is really starting to be not bad. Why? Because Solana, it's starting to finally, like the others, because I'm just putting this, I'm making mistakes. There, I just wanted to highlight. Solana is also starting to draw beautiful bullish divergences. So, that's good news, and it's simple, I keep repeating the same thing because it's the same tune that's been playing for all these years. When you are in overbought territory and you have divergences, it's nuclear. Remember, bearish divergence in overbought territory, it almost never misses. Boom, it's the descent. If you've been following the channel for a while, you've heard me say so many times, "beware of bearish divergence in overbought territory, it's not good." But here, I'm telling you the opposite. Damn it, I'm telling you bullish divergence in oversold territory. That smells good. Now, when I say it smells good, it doesn't mean "that's it, it's the bottom, direction $1000 on the..." No, I'm just telling you for the end of the decline. Okay. Can it explode and reach the top of wave A at $237? Yes, clearly that's the structural objective. Can it go higher? Yes, after that, we'll take things one step at a time. Well, so these are the good news we're seeing, especially on the altcoins. For now, Ethereum and the others are starting to draw bullish divergences, almost in overbought territory, not entirely, but almost. But Solana is in overbought territory with its bullish divergences. It's very pretty. Well, it's very pretty, but can it do a little -10% to reach $121? It has the right to. It's just that the divergences will be even stronger and the oversold territory will be even more powerful, you see. That will just increase the probabilities of creating a good bottom and taking off again if it does its little -10%. So, it continues its structure. At some point, ah, it disappeared. Ah, where are the indicators? They all disappeared. I've never seen that. Ah no, no, okay. There's a small update issue. So, it's magic. So, at some point, Solana, this channel, boom, it will be the explosion. We are much closer to feeling and having a bottom than being at the top, clearly. I'm talking to those who think Solana will have a bear market at $10. That will be complicated, I think. After, you have the right to think what you want. Well, now, in terms of liquidity, it's the same, a nice little climb to reach up to $130. Can it nibble up to $121 to reach the gap? Yes. And then it will take care of everything to the north. And for XRP. XRP is also being sold a bit. Now, it doesn't have a gap, it doesn't have a gap. It just has the bottom of its wick to reach, which is at a small, approximately, well, the bottom of the wick isn't very, a small -5%, you see. Now, the bottom of the wick isn't like a gap, it can go below the bottom of the wick and continue a bit. For a gap, you can say it might go there and then stop. Well, for now, XRP has also started to draw bullish divergences, it's not bad. Uh, except that, for example, Ethereum and Solana are slightly better because they are even more oversold. Don't forget, when you buy in the "don" part of the momentum indicator, for example, the RSI, it's that there's the FOMO, it's that people buy, buy, they don't care, they don't look at the price, it's good, it's going to the moon, and it's in those moments that you should say, "Ah, well, here, I'll give you a little, I'll take profits." Now, the opposite is true, we are oversold, people are capitulating because they are selling at a loss, you arrive in the oversold zones, and that's where you should open your bag and your little pouch, you say, "Yes, go ahead, put it in." Yes, yes, I'll take it. Go ahead. Yeah, put it in. You too, you're selling at a loss, go ahead, put it in, no problem. I'm selling to everyone who's selling at a loss. Well, there you go, that's how it's always worked. But it's not easy to reverse your psychology to have that. It's not innate to do that. Well, so XRP is not far from its Bollinger band at $2.11. For now, it's okay, if it breaks its Bollinger band, well, then it will be the descent. But we see that the bears are losing momentum more and more, you see. Since mid-October, since mid-October, the bears are getting tired, tired, tired. So, at some point, well, the bears will be completely tired, they will be completely exhausted, the bulls will take over and it will push. So, it also has a small cluster to reach around $2 for XRP, but when it has eaten that, for example, when Bitcoin has eaten $92,000 or lower, Ethereum $2800, Solana $121, and it around $2, well, when we make a good little base, all that will break. Well, upwards, of course. Regarding the stock market, well, today we have the S&P 500 and the Russell 600 which are a bit timidly red. Now, the Russell 600 is taking a bit more of a hit than the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is slightly red, but it's nothing. Well, it came out a few hours ago because this morning it wasn't there. We will have employment figures this week, okay? Well, now, be careful, this morning these figures, we weren't supposed to have them, now we are supposed to have them. So, we'll see if it stays there. So, on the 20th, November 20th, here, we should have the NFP, the non-farm payrolls, the creation of non-agricultural jobs, and we should especially have the unemployment rate. Finally, after 1.5 months and almost 2 months of US government shutdown, we have the figures that will be released. The most important figures that will influence the markets, whether crypto or stocks, will be employment and inflation. Why do these two figures influence the markets the most? Because it's the Fed's dual mandate. Dual mandate, meaning it's the Fed's double job. Manage employment, manage inflation. So, we'll see where we stand. The Fed is the American central bank, and that influences interest rate cuts, which tells you if there will be liquidity coming into the economy, so it influences the market. So, you see, it's a small butterfly effect, it flutters there, and in the end, it reaches the markets. Okay. So, if employment is good, or if employment is not good, it doesn't matter. But especially if inflation decreases, the Fed will be more inclined to lower rates. Lowering rates means stimulating credit, means a bit more money coming back, it's an indirect injection, and then, and then, it will go rather well. On the other hand, if inflation continues to rise and unemployment, for example, rises or falls, well, it's not the most important thing, especially inflation, I think. Well, then it won't look good for interest rate hikes, and the worst that could happen is inflation rising, and the Fed saying, "Ah, we're going to talk more about a small interest rate hike," you see, and that would be really bad for the markets, it would be very bad. We also note the earnings. Earnings are the quarterly reports of companies. Nvidia, the biggest company in the world, will release its quarterly report on Wednesday evening. So, that means that on Wednesday evening, it will release the data, its figures, and it's during the night that people will go into buy/sell mode. And then tomorrow, when the Asian or American markets open, that's when the sell orders will pour in if the data is not good. Now, when I say not good, it can be positive but not as much as investor expectations. Be careful because regarding AI, investors have high expectations. Okay? If they are even slightly disappointed, boom, they will sell. That already happened last month. So, that's why Thursday will be a day of great volatility, Thursday because on Thursday we will have Nvidia's figures released, and we will also have the NFP and unemployment figures released. So, Thursday, wow, 3:30 PM, it will be boom, fireworks, we'll all burn, or it will be beautiful, we'll have little stars, it will be nice. Well, for now, the S&P 500 is slightly in the red, but nothing significant. The Nasdaq is also slightly red, the Dow Jones is the same, the Eurostox 600 is taking a bit more of a hit. The Asian markets haven't moved. Gold is slightly red. Well, for now, there's nothing special, it's really a very timid Monday. Crypto stocks are taking a bit of a hit, like Bitcoin, you'll tell me, cryptos. Coinbase continues to fall below its 100-day moving average, it's not good. MicroStrategy continues to look for oil at $192, it's not good. Marathon Digital, all the miners are in a not-so-good mode. Well, Jack Dorsey's Block, oh dear, it continues to look for oil too. It's not very good. There's a bit of a sell-off in bonds here in the bond market. It's coming back a bit to defensive value and it's also coming back a bit to cash. Well, so why is it coming back to cash like this? One might think that since Thursday will be a day of high volatility, it could be big green or big red depending on how the employment figures turn out. Some are saying, "Well, I'm de-risking a bit, I'm going back to cash a bit and we'll see, I'll wait for the figures." You see, if the figures are good, boom, I'll buy, I'll buy back. If the figures are bad, oh, I did well to go a bit into cash. So, it's normal in the face of uncertainty and a rather important event that will happen, it will be Thursday with Nvidia and employment. Well, some are de-risking a bit today, clearly. Well, that's it, friends, for this little update. So, we'll see this week, it will swing, we'll see more clearly, we'll finally start to see more clearly regarding the US macroeconomy, how the markets will orient themselves. That's it, where it was foggy before, we'll see the fog lifting a bit, and we'll see if we're heading towards a storm, if we'll have to change course, or if ahead of us is a beautiful tropical island. Well, kisses and see you soon. Bye bye. [Music]