Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the heavy metalverse. Today, we're going to talk about palladium dubious speculation.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into The Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com, where we actually talk more than just crypto. But we also discuss quite frequently precious metals because, as we have said before, there's always a bull market somewhere, and for a while, that bull market has been in metals.
You can see that gold has been doing very well for quite a long time. Uh, silver has been doing incredibly well. It recently just had a bit of a pullback, but still has has done amazingly well the last couple of years. And palladium is something we've also tracked.
Now, in the short term, when you look at a chart like this, it seems like a pretty standard chart, right? Like you have this bottoming structure over here, and then you have the breakout, right? You have the breakout that occurs, and after the breakout, palladium tested the bull market support band, right? Then it went higher, and then a drop, and then even higher, and now we're kind of in a deeper drop, right? I mean, it is something to see palladium drop as much as it has in such a short period of time. So, I think it maybe warrants looking at it a little bit closer.
Okay. So, what I would typically say when I look at these structures is what I want to generally see is I want to see, you know, the highs more or less hold as support during these pullbacks, right? So, you can see we have wicked below the last sort of local high, um, but we'll see how that plays out. For now, we're still above it, at least on the weekly time frame. The reason I say that is because when you start kind of taking out those prior levels and those what you might have considered support end up not being support, then what happens, like it did with Bitcoin, is, you know, you have these levels that as long as they hold in the pullbacks, the bull market continues. But then once you break the integrity of one of the prior resistance levels, once you break through there, it really calls into question the whole recent move, right? So that's what we want to identify with palladium.
Now, I don't typically talk about shorter-term time, like shorter time frames. I don't. So, I want to brace you guys. We are going to look at the, dare I say, 4-hour time frame on a metal. Now, usually with metals, price action is relatively boring, and often times it's actually more fun to go watch paint dry. But in the last few months, metals have done something they don't normally do, and that is essentially do what a lot of people thought was going to happen in the altcoin market, right? And so that's why we continue to spend more time talking about metals, right? We don't need to just lament about how poorly crypto is doing. We can just say, you know what, crypto is doing what it did last business cycle. Bitcoin found a top a couple months before QT ended. Altcoins bled because that's what altcoins do. And rather than just pine for what you want to happen, trade the market that you have, not the market that you want.
And so, when we go over to the 4-hour time frame, I was looking at this, and I actually it reminded me of something that happened a few months ago on a different chart. So, we're going to take a look at that. One of the things that I thought was kind of interesting with this move by palladium, um, let me look at it on a different. There's a couple. I was looking at it on this chart. Yeah, because you can see the lines. One of the interesting things about this move is that, like, you had a deep drawdown of like 15%, and then it spiked right back up to the high, only to then drop again, sort of more. And so, what that, what it tells me, or what I think that means, is that probably a longer consolidation period is needed.
Now, I don't want you to get me wrong, right? Like, when you have these bull markets and metals, there's no guarantee that they're not going to last forever, and certainly some of the bull markets for palladium have gone on far longer than others, right? If you look at the bull market from 1977 until 1980, that was pretty impressive. Or if you look at the one from 1996 all the way up until 2001. Or if you look at the one from '08 to 2011. So far, the current one started in 2024. The question is, are we in one of these larger bull markets, or is it like a smaller bull market where it just goes up a little bit and then comes back down, and then goes up again later? To me, it doesn't really look like this move, although I'm not like completely closed off to it. One of the reasons is this move, it had like sort of like a V-shaped bottom, and then it, and then it came down for sort of that longer consolidation later. But this one was already a really long consolidation. I mean, palladium consolidated at the lows, you know, basically from November of 2023 until May of 2025. I mean, it was down there for a year and a half. Um, if you look at this low over here, it was down there from December 2004 to September 2005. So, I don't really think it's the same thing as '03.
But I do want to say, I kind of remember a pattern that was similar to this one, and coincidentally, a similar event happened. Okay, so bear with me for a moment. There's we've seen this pattern where you have a high in metals, and we saw it a couple months ago, where you have a high, and then you have like a big drop, a really brief drop. People panic sell, and it goes right back up to the highs, and they buy back in, and it goes even deeper. When did that happen? Because it happened once before, only a couple of months ago. I'm sure it's happened more than once before, but it happened a couple of months ago, and it happened to gold.
Let me go over to a, uh, a different chart here. So, we're going to look at, um, gold. So, if you look at gold, and we dare I say go over to the 4-hour time frame, you'll see a very similar chart. You'll see a high, an impulsive drop down after this major parabolic rally up, and then a rally back up to highs right below it, and then a deeper drop. So, we've seen it before. This has happened before. Now, gold eventually found a low and went even higher, but it took time, right? Like, we had exited this phase, and it called for a longer consolidation before going higher.
What's interesting about it that I find way more interesting than the pattern itself is what happened in the heavy metal verse at the same time that that pattern occurred. Now, when gold had this pattern, you can see that it was October 17th and October 20th. Okay, October 17th and October 20th. If you look at silver, silver broke through the prior all-time high from 2011. It broke through it. If you zoom in, October 10th, and then that initial pullback after breaking through the high was October 17th. Remember we said October 17th and October 20th. So, after silver broke through the prior all-time high, it went a little further. Then it got that correction back down. Drop, a big drop, a move back up, and then a higher low, and then much higher. So, you see that?
So, when gold had that move on the 4-hour where it put in a high and then a low, and then it went right back up to the high and then it went to a lower low, it corresponded to one of the other metals breaking through a prior all-time high. So, can we say the same about palladium? Because it's almost an identical setup to what we saw with gold. I think you can. Not with silver, though. You'd have to go look at another precious metal we've talked about, platinum. Platinum also just had a sizable correction. And coincidentally, it has broken through. We zoom over here. So, coincidentally, that's the all-time high, and it just broke through it a few days ago, and then now it's in that correction back below the prior all-time high, just like silver.
So, we saw a similar move on gold. So, gold had that same type of pattern when silver broke through the all-time high and then pulled back. Now, palladium is having that same pattern as platinum breaks through the prior all-time high and pulls back. Maybe it's a coincidence, maybe not. But I feel like a lot of times when one of the major assets within an asset class makes a new all-time high, it can lead to corrections in the other metals or in the other assets of that asset class.
For instance, with Bitcoin, Bitcoin had a correction, if you guys remember, back in August. Okay, there was this correction back in August, and what happened in August, or when that correction occurred, was Ethereum hit an all-time high, right? So, Ethereum hit an all-time high in August, and then that corresponded to this pullback by Bitcoin. So, you know, you can kind of see what I'm talking about. When some of the higher market cap assets within an asset class hit an all-time high, it can then correspond to pullbacks in the other metals.
So, you know, with something like palladium, there's certainly a lot of volatility. What's interesting about it to me is that despite the aggressiveness of this pullback, like, it's still not even at the bull market support. I mean, it's still so far away from it. I've seen some hysterical headlines today about, you know, people talking about this like major drop in palladium. And I'm not going to pretend like it's not a big drop. I mean, when the asset goes down like 15% in a day, it's not a small drop, especially if you have a lot of money allocated to it. But at the end of the day, you know, you're going to have to expect moves like that in the metals. When the metals start behaving like altcoins in terms of their volatility, there's going to be some big drawdowns as well.
Okay, so just keep. I'm sorry about my voice. I haven't been sick in a while. Um, and then now here I am. So, I'll probably be sick every week for like the next like six months. But, um, it is a pullback. If you look at the short-term bubble risk, yes, it is extended from the 20-week moving average, right? Absolutely it is. Um, but it's also been more extended in the past, right? And even though it's extended, I mean, it doesn't have to mean that the bull market's over either. It just might be a longer consolidation period.
What I will say is that in my experience, often times when you have a move like this where it hits sort of a level and then it drops and it goes right back up and then it drops deeper, it kind of implies a lot of times that this is some heavy resistance. That doesn't mean it won't eventually fall, but it's just going to take a longer period of time. Like, um, more than likely, you know, like when gold had that same pattern, it took several months to to break through it, right? I mean, it took like about two months to really to really break through. So, I just want people to be aware that, you know, when you get these pullbacks like like what palladium just had, not always, but more times than not, it signifies that a deeper consolidation, a longer consolidation is ultimately needed in order to justify more durably breaking through 1900.
Now, if you look at the daily time frame, um, and you look at like this entire move, you can see that palladium rallied up to the 382 and a little bit higher. The 0.5 would correspond to 2100. Um, and then the 618 would correspond to 2440. So, you know, we'll see. I mean, I hopefully the bull market continues. Because as I've said, I actually think metals will still do well into the end of the decade. I do think there will be a sharp correction, um, in them sometime in 2026 that lasts more than just like a month or two. It might last like 6 to 18 months or something. Um, but I'm not really sure if we're there just yet.
I mean, for now, while it is a pullback to sort of, it's noteworthy, it still is an all-time high just a few days ago for gold, right? Just a few days ago. And, um, and even for silver, I mean, silver is literally at $74. I mean, it's just insane when, I mean, literally a month ago, silver was at like 53 and now it's at 74. And I've, I've seen a lot of people be like, "All right, you know, sort of poking fun of like, oh, well, the people that bought silver back over in 2011 can finally like break even." But the reality is that, you know, if you pivoted your portfolio into metals over the last couple of years, like we've been talking about, it's been a great way to just accumulate wealth, right? Wealth preservation. You know, there's nothing wrong with just trying to preserve what you have. Um, and I've been saying that forever with crypto. It meant just being Bitcoin heavy for the last few years. Um, but it also means diversifying into other things as well, trying to preserve what you have in a very uncertain environment.
So, those are my thoughts right now on palladium. Um, we'll see how the next few weeks unfold. If you guys like the content, again, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into The Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Again, that sale ends at the end of the year, so make sure you check it out. Lock in a lower rate. Links in the description below. Thank you guys for tuning in, and I'll see you next time.