Transcription
Maybe 10% of the population in Taiwan, if there is force unification, will leave Taiwan. The rest will stay.
Mhm. And the rest will will come at it. And why should the mainland treat them badly? China is not treating Hong Kong badly. China is treating Hong Kong very well.
I worry now about India-Pakistan. When India said, "We cut our water supply." Singapore is very sensitive because we get all water from Malaysia. And we've long said that if you cut off water, it's casus belli, a reason for war. So when India did it, I said, "Why are you escalating so rapidly?"
And if you can do it, China can do to India one day. Are you saying it's acceptable?
2018, we had a trade war. And now we're having a trade war. 2018, a lot of the people on Chinese internet talking about, "We're going to lose. We should obey. We should we should kneel down."
We had, immediately after the trade war, we actually had a piece of a video, a piece of content, um, very much echoing what today retrospectively that you see as China's official stunt on public sentiment, which is resolve, which is resilience. And a very large key national state media refused to air it.
China, yeah, because they were unclear about where the trade war is going. They were afraid that China would lose badly. And by airing such a strong message would make them stupid.
But this time, you you can tell that, and yeah, we're still angry, but we're not we're not that angry.
No, that's because China is much better prepared this time.
Yes. Much. That was a rehearsal. Trump 1.0 was a rehearsal. Yeah.
I mean, for many years, people were angry with the government for all the rigor of the dual circulation, COVID, the property market decline. Now, in a sense, people realize that it's to prepare for this day.
Mhm. You think China's well-prepared?
Appears to be, but never be overconfident. And never be static. The blows will come. You've got to adjust. And even if China does well this round, Trump will always do well. He will declare victory whatever happens, right? So Trump will always do well. But if China also does well, then when the next time comes, the test may be more severe because they would have taken a measure of China.
Mhm. And they too would have become more prepared.
In what way though? As in which specific industries or targets that they would target?
Maybe it's just technology or economics. I don't worry too much.
Right.
But it could be a military contest, not a direct contest because that is Armageddon for everybody. But it could be through proxies.
History is always full of surprises.
Yeah.
And we can never be sure. I worry now about India-Pakistan. When India said, "We cut our water supply." Singapore is very sensitive because we get water from Malaysia. And we've long said that if you cut off water, it's casus belli, a reason for war. So when India did it, I said, "Why are you escalating so rapidly?"
And if you can do it, China can do to India one day. Are you saying it's acceptable? So I thought, "Why? Why is India doing this?"
Why? The easy explanation is that to win votes, you show aggression. So even Rahul Gandhi has to say he supports the government because at a time like this, everybody has to support the government. But there could be a deeper consideration. And it's not clear that it would be so easy for India either because even though Pakistan is much smaller, Pakistan has capabilities. And to some extent, it has become a proxy contest between Chinese weapons and and Western and Russian weapons.
It is happening already.
Yeah. So, but it's not good for China either.
No.
Yeah.
I mean, we don't need another conflict.
Mhm. Mhm. Yeah.
And these are China's neighbors. Ukraine is far away. The Middle East is far away. But these are your neighbors. You'll get dragged in.
Yeah.
One way or the other.
Totally. Totally. Yes. Will it trigger more concern for the Asians because the the water supply mostly comes from China? The it's the region is...
They're talking about the... When India talks about cutting the water supply, you mentioned that Singapore will think of because the water comes from Malaysia. But for most of the ASEAN countries, water comes from China.
But in actual fact, the water of the Mekong, which goes into the South China Sea, two-thirds come from Laos.
Mhm.
So, China supplies some of it, but not the greater part of it.
Yeah.
And China is building dams. And so, China needs to talk to people who live further down because they are affected. China cannot store and release water without worrying about the people downstream who need that water to live. So if China refuses to talk to people downstream, then China is being very unfriendly. And people will draw certain lessons about China.
[clears throat] I don't think China is doing it. I think there's a lot of conversation going on.
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. It's not just China, it's also Laos, and then it goes to Cambodia, and then it goes to Vietnam. So we all depend on each other.
Yeah. Interesting times. Maybe the challenging times will help unite the region more.
I think so. We we're in a great transition. The ASEAN-China relationship is an extremely important relationship. The trade is now a trillion dollars, and the complementarity is profound. We are like same time zone. China is dry. China is cold. China is aging. China is mostly land. Southeast Asia is young. Southeast Asia is warm. Southeast Asia has plenty of water. Same time zone. You can't grow coconuts. You can't... Hainan can grow a few [laughter] durian. Hainan can grow a few. Not very good ones [laughter]. Fish, maritime products. I was talking to Yong from Chinese. He's... We're discussing... Where did the turtle shells come from? A lot of the turtle shells came from Southeast Asia. And to this day, the turtles are from Southeast Asia. So there was a trade. A Japanese diplomat once wrote a very interesting essay through the eyes of the *bêche de mer*. The *bêche de mer* is the sea cucumber. *Hāshun*, *hishun*. Bird's nest, shark's fin came from Southeast Asia. And there's an ancient trade going back many centuries from Southeast Asia to China. And we have a climate which is so nice, beautiful beaches. Chinese people are getting older. They want to go to warm climate. They go to Sichuan, Hainan. They go to Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines. I tell my Indonesian friends that why don't we start a company to buy small islands? Because one day the demand from China will be enormous. I mean, imagine you have a time share on some small island and you share with your relatives and so on, and every winter you go down there. How nice it must be, right?
Yeah. Especially when you're older. So between China and Southeast Asia, there's a very deep complementarity. Southeast Asia doesn't want to be part of China. Certainly not Vietnam. Certainly not Myanmar. Certainly not Indonesia or Philippines or Singapore, Malaysia. So we'll be independent. We don't threaten China. And China, there's no reason for China to threaten us.
Yeah.
And the relationship between the Vietnamese Communist Party and the Chinese Communist Party has opened a new chapter, which is very good for the entire region. There's some small problems, South China Sea. I think that can be resolved or managed. But otherwise, we should work on cooperation, including cooperation in the South China Sea.
[clears throat] You come from Hainan. Hainan is not a free trade port. And you need travel documents to travel from Hainan Island to the mainland and vice versa. And Hainan can negotiate separate trade agreements with Singapore, with Southeast Asia. We should think of making Hainan a partner of ASEAN.
Interesting.
I would support that.
And and turn the South China Sea into a...
[clears throat] ...high into a Mediterranean Sea. In other words, instead of saying this is yours, this is mine, say, "No, this is a sea which connects us, which has always connected us, and from which we derive common benefits." In other words, develop a positive agenda for the South China Sea with Hainan as a key element on China's side.
I think it can be done.
But it requires creativity. It requires political will.
Yeah.
Wow. Interesting. Wow.
Very good idea. That's I'm all for Hainan being a very new diplomatic zone for a new area of development, of co-development. You can have a free trade agreement between Hainan.
Well, Hainan is becoming a free trade zone. Therefore, under WTO rules, it can have an independent...
Yes.
So, the future agreement between Hainan and Singapore, Hainan and Southeast Asia can go much further than the one with the PRC. Does uh the current trade war and the shift in the global order, the sensitivities, the uncertainties, does it worry you for for Singapore, for for the prosperity of this region, including China?
I see something which may sound surprising. It is good that we have a trade war and not a real war because the trial of strength between the US and China will have to go through a process lasting many years. And there will be many anxious moments. And in some of those anxious moments, there could be physical conflict, and people could die. A trade war is good because it's only about money. And both sides can really manage it. Trump said, "I decide because if the deal is something I'm happy with, we have a deal." China can also decide. If you are a businessman, if you are an individual, you may be hurt, but you only hurt in your pocket. You're not you're not bloody. You see...
Remember on the on the first day after you arrived um we were having dinner and you said um actually Albert, if you can back me up, we actually decided that we don't dislike Trump on a personal level. And I would say that most Chinese people or at least the sentiment on the ground uh online is that people actually do not dislike Trump. Um and my take on that is um for China now, I think respect and honesty and honor means more than the physical interest. Because what the Democrats or the United States used to do um for the longest period of time after World War II is I mean including this time what was revealed about uh US aid, what they were doing around the world. I mean that is claiming moral supremacy over other civilizations is what the Chinese people cannot live with. That's what they hated. So where Trump is, you know, gloves off, um you know, let's let's fight. Um the Chinese people actually okay with that.
And actually from my point of view that um I think Trump is a uh is actually easier u uh the counterpart.
Trump is actually a a much a a much easier one to deal with.
No, I think you're right. They were operating a very sophisticated system. They thought they could dominate the world and therefore they should dominate China. China refused. Then for complex reasons, instead of concentrating on China, by keeping close to Russia, they went after Russia. And this is China's good fortune. Then you had the Middle East. Both Ukraine and the Middle East, Gaza are distant wars for China. China is not directly involved.
Yeah.
And they have taken the heat away from China. But throughout this period, the internal difficulties of the US got got worse. The deficit increased. The social problems increased. And Trump was voted on the platform to revive American manufacturing, to solve the drug problem, to reduce the deficit. So he has no grand conception of US dominating the world. Secretary Rubio was the first secretary of state to say that we are living in a multipolar world.
This is a big concession that the US administration has made. Future US administrations will have to work within this framework. It is a reality. And once you think in terms of multipolar framework, your strategy and your tactical moves all change. And we're seeing that in Trump. Now, Motto once said that he much preferred to vote with Republican presidents than Democrat presidents because they're much more honest. And in the case of Trump, he's not ideological.
Exactly.
You can deal with him. He's got a bottom line.
Yeah. He's very honest about what he wants and what measures he's going to take in order to get there. And there is no ideological supremacy. There is no hypocrisy. Uh there is no intellectual control, mind control games that he plays there.
But he's a bully.
Yes, he is. He's a bully.
Yeah. And his uh negotiating style is very aggressive. It's quite scary. I met a former Korean minister. He said, "If Trump wants $2, he asks for 10, and he screams at you."
Yeah.
And you you're so anxious. So in the end, you say, "Okay, you settle for $3."
You know, Trump has got $3 instead of two.
Yeah.
And you're so happy that you you're only giving him three.
Yeah.
And not 10.
That's how he negotiates.
Okay. Where does uh Southeast Asian Asian countries, Singapore, China stand with this um bullying style of negotiators? Um there was a meme circulating somewhere. I just came across it said uh um I think it's a comedian or something. He said uh, "Hey, I know Trump wrote The Art of Deal, but remember, China, they wrote The Art of War." [laughter]
So who said that? The Singaporean?
No no no no. An American like comedian. One of those like...
It's quite funny.
Yeah. One of those funny shows. Yeah. It was just a funny thing that I remembered.
So, where do we stand against a negotiating bully?
Now, if you're a small guy,
Yeah.
and there's a bully walking around, just stay in the corner. Don't attract his attention.
Okay.
It's it's not worth the while to attract his attention.
But it's...
But if you have no choice and he's going after you, then you've got to stand up to him because if you show weakness to a bully, he'll bully you more. Now, if you stand up to a bully, he may give you a punch in the face. Okay, you take the bruise, and you hit back, and then he'll be more careful next time. But of course, in S in the case of Singapore, we have ASEAN. And if there's a group of us who stay together, it's harder for him to bully us.
Okay?
So, ASEAN will become stronger. And ASEAN is getting stronger. So...
Singapore's strategy is very simple: try not to attract attention and work with ASEAN. Do you think Singapore and ASEAN countries are at some point going to be forced to pick a lane between China and the United States? Because it seems like in the world order today, yes, multipolar, but increasingly sort of like a parallel lanes of parallel worlds emerging.
For all 10 Southeast Asian countries, an ascendant China is something we have seen repeatedly in history. So whether you are Thailand or Vietnam or Indonesia, you have a historical memory of China and how it behaves when it is strong. You never want China to be an enemy. It's just tough when it's too big. You don't want to be too close to China either because if you're too close, you have no freedom.
Okay? So the instinct of Southeast Asia is: trade is good, investments are good, good relations are important, but maintain a certain formality.
Okay.
And have other friends around. You know, Zhu Rongji, China's premier, very wise man. In the year 2000, when ASEAN countries were reeling from the Asian financial crisis, he offered a free trade agreement to ASEAN leaders. I was there in Singapore, year 2000, November. And ASEAN leaders did not know how to react. I was trade minister. The following year, when the trade ministers met in Brunei, I said, "China wants it politically, asked for an early harvest, a concession." Singapore did not benefit because it was for in agriculture and in natural resources.
Right.
Okay.
But I wanted a moral position that I'm not asking this for Singapore. I'm asking this for the other nine. They agreed. China agreed. Later on, I spoke to Li Peng. Li Peng said, "Premier Zhu said, whatever ASEAN wanted, give it to them." I read it correctly. Then the following year in Beijing, we signed the framework agreement. And Zhu Rongji made two remarks. He said, "If after 10 years the agreement is in China's favor, we will renegotiate it." I couldn't believe it, you know. I said, "That's very good." Then he made a second remark, even more important. He said, "China does not seek for itself an exclusive position in ASEAN." He meant that we will never ask you to choose your friends, so long as you are my friend.
Mhm. So if the Americans come here and tell us, "You choose between China and us," I tell my American friends, "You ask that question, you may not like the answer, so I suggest you don't ask that question."
So the Americans openly said, "We don't ask countries to choose." But privately...
But privately did. On specific issues, they put pressure.
Oh, however, uh I I really like your what you say that uh because from the historical perspective, the ASEAN countries, they remember when China was powerful and if you stay too close, you lose freedom. However, uh if we really look into history, uh China only had war with uh Vietnam and Cambodia during the Qing dynasty and Ming dynasty. Ming invaded uh Vietnam and Qing invaded...
Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. My... Yes. Yes. And besides that, China actually didn't uh didn't interfere with their uh local business at all. Uh all the Chinese impro asked was tribute and not just uh like a uh for very often like one year or two year or three year for for once. And actually, every time when they go to tribute to the emperor, the emperor gives much more than the the tributary. Uh so is it is it a a historical misunderstanding? How is this mentality misformed?
Firstly, the word "tributary." Tribute is a wrong word for *taiyang*.
The leaders of Moscow paid tribute to the Golden Horde.
Oh, sure.
It was a ransom. I give you money so that you protect me and you don't disturb me. To broth pay tribute to the Sultan again for protection. The Chinese system was *youyong*. You get trading benefits.
Yeah.
It is not payment.
Yeah.
It is to receive payment.
Yes.
In return for respect.
Yes. Southeast Asian countries realize that that in the Chinese mind, face is very important.
Mhm. So whenever they meet Chinese leaders, whenever they come to Beijing, they say such sweet things about China, and Chinese leaders are so happy. Say, "Well, yeah, you know, they respect us." But when they go back home and they talk to their own people, I know because I talk to them, and they say, "No, China is..." They don't say "bully," but sometimes "China puts a lot of pressure on us, and they're very tough, and so on." It's important for China to understand this.
But what he what Elvis is trying to ask is that where does that perception come from? With the lack of physical war in history, uh where does that perception come from? Is it self-imposed or how?
You're talking about Southeast Asia? Talking about...
No, no. Southeast Asia, somewhat sort of like, "Okay, let's stay slightly away from China." Where does that come from?
I wouldn't go as far as use the word "fear," but like you described, you know, people are are sensitive about their relationship with China.
No, because China is big, and China has an enormous market.
Okay. And if China likes you, it can make you very happy.
Right?
And if China dislikes you, you can feel a lot of pain.
So it's just a natural progression of power disparity.
No, it's like ordinary people when they meet a very rich man, they behave nice to the the rich man because the rich man can give you a car or something, and suddenly you're very happy.
Okay.
Or he [clears throat] can take away your license or rental, and then suddenly you're in trouble. And China, in Chinese statecraft, and this is from *Pingfa*, never use military force unless you absolutely have to.
Yeah.
And try to achieve your objective without military force. Of course, you need military power, but don't use it. And the best weapon is economic. So when China says, "Oh, we are in favor of free trade and so on." I said, for certain things, China has always used trade for statecraft. When the Americans have the CHIPS Act to deny China technology, think about this. China kept the secret of making paper and the secret of making silk for many centuries. You're not allowed to betray this secret to foreigners.
And it gave China a huge advantage. The silk trade, we know, was an important source of revenue. Paper. Paper is like today's computer. With paper, you can record, process data, organize more people, regulate flood control.
Sure.
Understand climate change. China had a monopoly for centuries. So this gave China enormous advantage, and why it was able, it has always been able to organize more people on Earth. So if Americans say, "I don't want to give you chips, I don't want to teach you this or that." Of course, because if China has such knowledge, China will also not want to share with other people. So this is to me normal, not unusual. The politicization of trade is also normal. It's not unusual. So relax.
Yeah. [laughter]
The important thing is we're not killing each other.
Yes. You said earlier that you get a lot of requests to fly to the United States to, interestingly, not tell them about ASEAN, but tell them about China. And um, correct me if I'm wrong, but uh at some point uh I remember you uh saying somewhere that you find yourself inadvertently becoming a spokesperson or a specialist analyzing China to the West. Um, what are the key points uh you are most keen to make to people in the West or in the United States today? And what are the the biggest blind spots that they have about China, you think?
I once told a retired American national security advisor, I said, "The Chinese understand you more than you understand them."
Oh, definitely.
Definitely. Yeah.
You see, you said definitely. You said definitely. [clears throat]
Absolutely.
He was so shocked. Uh-huh.
That night at a cocktail, he told a friend of mine.
Yeah.
"You see, you know what Josh Show told me? That the Chinese understand us more than we understand them." Now, he did not contradict me.
Right.
But he was taken aback. You know, in *Pingfa*.
If you don't understand China, you're at a disadvantage. Worse, you may do things which will hurt everybody. What is the greatest fear? The greatest fear in the West is that when China becomes big and strong, or bigger and stronger, you will behave like a Western power.
That is the assumption. Yes.
You will also become imperialistic.
That is the assumption. Yes.
You want to capture population, you want to capture territory. The Chinese mentality is always defensive because it's a big universe, all following more or less Confucian principles.
So if you go to a room, people know how to behave. You say, "Okay, let's pose for a photograph." Everybody knows where to stand. If you're a junior, you don't stand in the middle.
And if you're a senior, you stand somewhere in the middle until someone says, "Stand here." Right? So this is instinctual for all the chopsticks people. But for the non-chopsticks people, it is not obvious. So you have to deal with non-chopsticks people. It's a bit, you know, you have [laughter] to you have to tell them. And you don't want to tell them because they are rude to have to tell them.
Yeah.
So Chinese people prefer to govern Chinese people.
And that is why China is 92% Han. This is not an accident. This is not the result of one or two policies. It is deep in the culture. It's a highly consensus-driven society. And you know, I remember what did in the *Sui Dynasty*? "Why don't you kill him? If you kill him, somebody else will take his place. Then my problem is bigger."
That's expensive.
Yeah. So just make the same point again and again until you have good relations. That is the best. So that is the wisdom of Chinese statecraft, and it's all protecting itself. The great war, you control the media, you control the capital markets, you have the biological war, you have controls on Hollywood movies, on education, on books, on everything.
Why? It's defensive.
This the Western countries don't understand. If they understand this, and this is why this is the longest continuous civilization in modern history, partly. But if they understand this, then they'll fear China less. What they're afraid is, "China now has a navy, aircraft carrier, is going to invade me." The Europeans said, "China is a threat." How is China a threat to Europe? Would China invade Europe? Would China send aircraft carriers to the Baltics, to the Mediterranean Sea, to the North Sea? I can't imagine [clears throat] China ever doing such a thing.
In fact, China says, "You America, you do it. Well, good luck to you." And then they say, "Actually, stupid, but anyway, good luck to you." [laughter]
Yes.
So, in the Middle East, the US is always taking sides for Israel, for this, for that. China's position is, you know, "I have enough problems in my own family. You know, good luck to you. How can I interfere in your family when I can't solve all my own family's problems?"
This is a very uniquely inward-looking civilization. Or maybe all the old civilizations.
I think he has learned from his mistakes in the past.
Yeah.
That every time you go beyond the limits, it leads to grief. So better to be restrained.
How do you define? You said the world is entering uh multipolarity. How do you define a multipolar world? Well, we're used to American dominance. I mean, after the Second World War, there were 40% [clears throat] of global GDP. Then you had a Cold War with the Soviet Union, but there was very little interaction. Then after the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union would dissolve, America, in their own estimation, became the new role. There was no enemy. It was the end of civilization. Then they saw China, which they were helping, growing bigger and bigger. And then China setting a bad example to other countries that the Western road is not the only road that they can take. And in fact, more and more in the developing world, they've come to the conclusion that the Western road is a dead end for them.
Yes.
So they better find their own road. They can't take the Chinese road. It's not possible way. Yes. But they can find their own way to the future.
So China's success is a criticism of a pre of a prevalent Western view that my values are universal and that the only way to the future is my way.
So that is no longer the view in the Third World, in the Global South. So you're saying that one, what multipolarity means is that a paradigm shift in the mindset, you know, in in how people think and view the world, in the values that we hold. But it also means greater instability. You know, Sing Si, the moment you have three, you can't predict. You have a multipolar world, it's very it's very hard to predict. It's very unstable. They're moving all the time. So for a small country like Singapore, suddenly we have more room. It's also more dangerous. When there's only one sun, then our orbit is predetermined. It's very easy. If there are two suns, we have more freedom. There are three suns, then it's a headache, right? This is the world we're entering. And which is why you need a mentality and a moral system. What China calls a *fa*, a common destiny.
Yeah.
What Pope Francis called a common humanity. If you don't have that, the technology that we have can can enable us to kill each other.
Mhm.
Much more effectively and quietly. It's very dangerous. The the technology which the human mind has created can destroy humanity. So without a moral sense which takes control of this technology and puts it within bounds, it's like fire or nuclear energy, it can destroy us. So this moral sense, China is trying to introduce. Pope Francis is trying to introduce. There are different moral philosophers in the world who are saying, "Look, be careful. We can't just rush into this without thinking."
AI will replace most of us. And it's scary. When the Industrial Revolution happened, workers smashed machines because the machines took away their jobs. The assembly line reduced human beings to machine parts. So you had Karl Marx, you had the Communist Manifesto, the socialist movement to recover the authority of human beings. And in the 20th century, technology was used to kill people on an industrial scale. So if we're not careful in this century, there will be terrible things happening because of technological development. So this moral sense is very important. Actually, at the beginning of the conversation, you you mentioned that you think uh China is keep doing experiments and keep uh uh analyzing the experiments, and that's why, yeah, that's why you feel uh China is young.
Because we don't have that sense of that sense of end of history. We don't... We I I don't think Chinese people will ever talk about, "Now we have the best system," or "Now we have the end of history." Uh, but this happens in the United States even before the end of the Cold War, right? Uh, I think Professor Fukuyama wrote that book before the end of the the Cold War. I think it's quite important for the for the world to stop competing on who has a better political system because political system is only a way you choose how to rule yourself or how to how to how to deal with all the games happens within your border. I think maybe the end of history, or maybe the next stage of the human human civilization's chapter should be uh competing on who has a better idea to deal with uh our uh mutual problems such as climate change, such as how AI will uh serve the human uh civilization instead of replacing our civilization. It'll be interesting to see how different civilization, different countries put AI to use. Um, right now AI, or for for as as you know, but basically as much as we will talk about AI is still very much limited to writing poems, the large language models. But really, in China, at least, I wouldn't say just in China, but in I'm sure it happens in some other countries too, is that the application of AI in um in real economy and in medicine, in pharmaceuticals, in production lines, so things like that. It's not just about... I think the point about what we're discussing is that the philosophies, the values behind each civilization. And it'll be interesting to see, interesting and challenging to see in the 21st century how different civilizations apply a technology like AI. And what is your expectation on that?
It may sound old-fashioned.
Yeah.
But if you go back to Karl Marx, he said if the superstructure does not support the growth of productive forces,
Yeah.
then you have a contradiction and decline. AI is a new productive force. So that the superstructure doesn't adapt to it, the society will face severe internal contradiction. When China took the decision to make DeepSeek open source, that to me was a highly strategic move.
In America, a few companies dominate, and they give you an app free. But if you are a business and you want to make use of a large language model to build your own model, you pay by making open source. China says, "No, I've invented the wheel. Everybody can use a wheel. You don't have to pay me a royalty. Use a wheel. You use a wheel. Everybody uses a wheel. The whole country uses a wheel. The whole world now uses a wheel." This has big implications on economics and social matters. And I think it's good for the world. And the people in America who says, "Every time you use my product, you must pay me." They are monopolies, right?
I think they'll run into trouble. But there will be some societies which should be so frightened they will prevent technology from being applied. Then Karl Marx's theory will come into effect. They will meet internal contradictions. The countries that quickly adapt, make mistakes, learn from mistakes, adjust, move further, they will be best adapted to the new technologies. Well, part of the reason why a lot of the new technologies in China are going like DeepSeek, there's not just one DeepSeek. There are many DeepSeeks to come. Yes. And the reason why they're able to adapt the open-source business model is because China, as a single market, let's not even talk about the global market, just as a single market is large enough to facilitate to incubate these new ideas.
Yes. Without the size of the Chinese market, the US would have maintained its dominance for much longer. I mean, they tried to kill Huawei. They could not because of the internal market.
You're an advisor to Huawei, right? It can be made public.
Yes. Yes. It's public. In Singapore,
I mean, you're Samsung, you're Ericsson, you're Nokia, you have to think *tinuai*. If US says do this, you do this. Don't do that, you don't do that. But China didn't have to. So they tried to kill Huawei. They failed.
What was your advice uh given to Huawei then? [laughter]
No, I didn't want to join Huawei at first because it was radioactive, you know, and I'm retired. Time I find, why do I want to get involved in this? [laughter] Then it was bullying. I felt a little angry. I said, "No, this is wrong." So I said, "No, I I'll support it. I was supported because they were doing a good thing. I don't believe they were spying, and the way they responded, I mean, I became I share in their pride, you know. It's the spirit is indomitable."
Yeah. So I visited the campuses in Shenzhen and Tonguan. I watch what they do, how open they are. Ren Zhengfei decided, "Don't be trapped in the Chinese mind." [clears throat] So everything about Europe, force the mind to open up to a different world, to a different philosophy, so that you're open for new ideas. That's very far-sighted. It's incredible, the kind of philosophy which drives Huawei.
Maybe 10% of the population in Taiwan, if there is force unification, will leave Taiwan. The rest will stay.
Mhm.
And the rest will will accommodate. And why should the mainland then treat them badly? China is not treating Hong Kong badly. China is treating Hong Kong very well.
As as a wonderful diplomat and a politician, a policy maker, what would be your advice to the people uh living in Taiwan right now because um that is very much the most sensitive topic um for a lot of people speculating about the geopolitical tension in the region right now. I was invited to give a speech in Taiwan almost two years ago. The guest of honor was Chiang Ching-kuo and Lee Teng-hui. I was very honored, but everybody was a little surprised, and it was a good conversation about Taiwan. The DPP government wasn't very happy. The Taiwan News actually issued a statement to criticize me, but it was a bit too extreme, and people were not happy that they issued such a statement.
In any case, I went there as an individual. I was not representing the government or any political party. But I I have a strong affection for Taiwan because I've been there innumerable times. I have so many friends there, and I work with Guam. My work would mean things to them. And most importantly, they saved my son, because my son had leukemia and needed a bone marrow transplant. We couldn't find a match in the family. We couldn't find a match in Singapore. We couldn't find a match in Hong Kong. In the end, through Foundation, we found a match. So when I meet Taiwanese leaders, I tell them, "My son is Taiwanese by blood," which he is, because his blood is Taiwanese.
The blood came from a Taiwan donor.
So I have a strong affection for Taiwan. And my point to them is this: One China was decided a long time ago in Cairo and in Potsdam. And One China would have happened much earlier but for the Korean War, which caused the US 7th Fleet to come in and prevent unification. If the US stops interfering, reunification will be natural and organic. So the problem of Taiwan is not the problem of Taiwan and the mainland. It's a problem of the US and the mainland, because the US doesn't really want unification for as long as possible.
Yeah.
The US is One China, but they will manipulate it such that Taiwan will be separated for as long as possible. So when you talk about Taiwanese people, they are caught in in this big game. My point to them is, you can't affect, but you can decide whether you want to be played on that chessboard and how you want to be played. Because if you are happy just to be a pawn, then one day you'll be sacrificed. But if you decide that, "No, I will not be a pawn, I will be a castle or bishop," then you can shape your own future. And the best time to talk to China is yesterday, because relative to the US, China is getting stronger. So your negotiating position is getting weaker and weaker. And you should ask yourself not whether I rejoin the mainland, because if Taiwan rejoins the mainland, it's just another province. China has over 30 provinces. It adds nothing to China. So Taiwan adds something to China by being different.
Exactly.
By being precious. So what is precious about Taiwan? Well, it's got 50 years of Japanese colonial history, which has left its DNA in Taiwan culture. So when you go to Taiwan, you go to Taipei, Kaohsiung, oh, it looks a little like Japan. You go to the restaurants, the small restaurants, the food is very good, and the presentation is beautiful. And ordinary Taiwanese are very friendly, very courteous. Sometimes I said, "If all of China were like Taiwan, China would be so beautiful in a certain way." And Chinese people visit Taiwan, they recognize this. So Taiwan, by being Taiwan, can add a lot to Chinese culture and civilization. And they should think positively and not think in terms of whether I'm part of China, I'm not. And in the same way, the mainland should look at at at Taiwan not as a matter of principle of pride that you left the family. Now I want you back. And if you don't to come back, I will capture you and bring you back. Yes, you may come back, but he'll be a silent and unhappy son, and will not be good for you. In fact, you will poison the family. What you want is to win over Taiwan so they come back, and then the family is enhanced. That requires China to work with the DPP. Now, DPP are very dark green. You can't work with them because they want independence. But most of them are not very deep green.
There are shades of green, and many of them should be engaged. And it takes time. It takes patience. It takes generosity.
Would you say the time to engage is right now, given that um we spoke, I I think we spoke um on over dinner the other day, that Trump is very unlikely to play the Taiwan card, or at least provoke Beijing over Taiwan?
So China should not take the attitude that because Trump has a position, so I'm exploiting it to put pressure on you. Then they'll be defiant. They say, "Yeah, you're bullying me. You'll be like the way China trying to bully China." The reaction will be the same. "You're bullying me. I will stand firm." No, no, that's that's the wrong approach. I think the approach is just talk about history. Talk about culture. Then the future is natural. It requires effort, and it requires understanding. A parent, if you want to win over a child, you must understand the child and understand his hopes and his fears, and work with it. And you have to be patient.
I have I think I think we have lost the opportunity.
You mean Taiwan, right? Like on the on the people to people.
Yeah. We don't I think we're not going to see a happy ending.
Yeah. Really?
Yeah. Yeah. For uh especially the younger generation because uh uh your...
Change the textbooks, you know. You're talking about a reminder of history, of the culture, of the origins and the roots. But what is exactly happening within the island is that they are actually wiping out all our history, rechanging, rewriting history, rewriting textbooks. And also for for the for the mainland part, especially younger generation, after 2019, what happened in Hong...
Uh, yeah. They're angered by that also.
For the younger generation, for the younger generation, the Chinese younger generation, they think, "Oh, we gave such a long time to Hong Kong. We didn't we didn't change almost anything. We respected One Country, Two Systems, and they wanted more. And they uh they look down on us. And then you disrespect uh China and the civilization and the culture."
Yes. So uh yeah, I take a longer-term view. Yeah.
Because Chinese culture is resilient.
Mhm.
You can change the school syllabus. You can try to de-Sinicize the Chinese people in Taiwan. However you try, there will be more Chinese than the Chinese in Singapore. I mean, I I don't speak Mandarin well. In my school system, I don't study Chinese history. Have I lost my Chineseness? No. How can the Taiwanese people who the Chinese business, they don't want to be part of the PRC? That I can understand. But the the mainland must also understand why the emotions are so deep. These are not simple disagreements. Because under martial law in Taiwan, under it was very brutal. I first went to Taiwan in 1976. I had to my passport did not allow me to go to Taiwan. So in Honolulu, I applied for a visa. They put it in a separate piece of paper. I had a box, an old box containing an alarm clock from PRC. The customs official looked at the box. He saw the word PRC. He took the box. He threw it away. I thought, "How, how can you do that? This is so rude. I mean, you can tell me that I should not bring it in or whatever." He just threw it away. I was in a restaurant because my cousin lived there, and the waitress spilled something. Somebody was very angry. And the person next to him said, "You should have slept her." This is martial law. For years, they were not allowed to talk about 228. And recently, they released the secret files of KMT intelligence when they were spying on everybody. This is a deep, deep wound. And the anger against the KMT has been transferred to anger against the mainland because the KMT came from the mainland.
Of course, China says, "I'm not KMT. I fought the KMT." [laughter] How can you blame me? No, you must understand that the anger is against the mainland.
Yeah.
I don't think there's enough understanding of Taiwan on the mainland, and not enough appreciation of why they are what they are. You look at Hong Kong. You mentioned Hong Kong. So since the National Security Law, about 300,000 Hong Kongers have left Hong Kong. Okay, that's maybe 5% of the population. Maybe 10% of the population in Taiwan, if there is force unification, will leave Taiwan. The rest will stay.
Mhm.
And the rest will will accommodate. And why should the mainland then treat them badly? China is not treating Hong Kong badly. China is treating Hong Kong very well. There was a period when Hong mainlanders, when they went to Hong Kong, they felt that they were badly treated by Hong Kongers.
Discriminated against. Yeah. And literally rudely treated.
Yes.
Today...
It's the other way around. [laughter]
I have I have an apartment in Hong Kong.
It's the other way around.
I see so many mainlanders going there, influencers, taking photographs, talking to their phones. I see it's very cute.
What is the complaint among Hong Kong people?
Hey, they're not spending money. So, history is a long time. If there is force for forcible reunification, there will be a wound, but it can heal.
Mhm.
But it may be possible to to avoid that.
Avoid a force? Very quickly, because I can't resist. I just want some gossip. Um...
You are one of the most well-respected diplomats, uh, in all of Asia. We've read so many stories about you, heard your speeches, and was heard about a lot of stories about your experience, um, over the past few decades. What are some of your most memorable times, um, personally for you, and with regards to China and in relationship with Chinese, uh, state leaders?
I was a young minister, and Lee Kuan Yew was trying to teach me. So there was one year, I think it was in 1990 or 1991. George Bush Sr. was in Singapore, and a few days later, Yang Shangkun, the president, would be in Singapore. So he asked me to, it was, they had two private meetings, so he asked me to be the notetaker for both meetings. So with George Bush, the notetaker was Brent Scowcroft, national security advisor. And George Bush was US ambassador to China. He was also CIA chief. And he, he meant China well. And he told me to pass a message to Yang Shangkun to help him, help China, because Congress was making a big deal over MFN, Most Favored Nation status. So I took the notes for that meeting.
Then a few days later, I saw the way Lee Kuan Yew met Yang Shangkun, and Yang Shangkun was already elderly. He was, he sat back, but he was such a large man, lush in spirit, you know. You could say anything to him, he could accept it because he had seen war before. He had seen deaths. And Lee Kuan Yew told him China should join GATT before the WTO, so you avoid this MFN yearly struggle. And Lee Kuan Yew had some critical things to say about China, about, he meant it in a good way. Yang Shangkun took it in a very relaxed, big-hearted way. I still have the notebook where I kept notes of both meetings. I'm a very bad notetaker. I don't write detailed sentences. I just make a few points, then I write it up. That to me was a great privilege, to watch two meetings. And Lee Kuan Yew was respected by both of them, and he did not behave as if he was the prime minister of a small country. They respected him because he did not talk like the leader of a small country. He was respected because his mind and his heart embraced them. So that was very impressive.
[clears throat] I was at that time, 1991, 54, 37 years old, and it was a privilege to have been asked by Lee Kuan Yew to be notetaker for both meetings. Mhm. And that led, that led subsequently to APEC, and to many other things, because China was recovering from the sanctions, resulting from the Tiananmen Square incident. Yeah. And Bush wanted to help China, because at that time there were other challenges. And from then on, that really kickstarted China fully joining the globalized trade trading system. Yeah.
It took almost 10 years, and when I was trade minister, I was very involved in that, not directly, but indirectly. China acceded to the WTO under more exacting terms than any other country to the WTO. I know the people who were involved, Bob Zoellick, Pascal Lamy, and they were negotiating for the US, for America. Japan had its interests. Other countries had their interests, and they were all afraid that China would swamp them with cheap manufacturing. So they gave China developing country status, which China deserved, but there were all kinds of constraints. They didn't recognize China as a market economy. After China joined the WTO in Doha, I was there, long after, everybody clapped. The following day, Taiwan also joined. It was part of an agreement. A few years later, Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, and Brunei established the TPP. I met Xi Jinping. I said, "Why don't you join the TPP?" He said, "China already gave in so much."
[panting] So when people today say that they should not have allowed China to, China took advantage, and yeah, they didn't realize that they pushed China to the limit for its accession to the WTO. No one knew, not even China, that China would continue to grow steadily over the next 20 years. So that by, by [clears throat] the beginning of COVID, at the end of 2019, China's economy had grown seven times in PPP terms, nine times in RMB terms, and 11 times in US dollar terms. So China became very big. And during the global financial crisis in 2008, the G7 could not create sufficient global demand. So the following year, Gordon Brown hosted a second meeting in London, and then all 20 countries agreed to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy, and China introduced a 4 trillion RMB budget.
Mhm. Yeah. And after that, you know, I read the report, in three years, China bought more concrete than the US in its entire history. China was building everywhere to spend. Yes. It helped. Yeah. So the global recession was shorter than it would have been otherwise, but it created enormous distortions in China, and it took China many years to smooth out those distortions, even until today. Even until today. Yes. So part of the property boom had its origins there, in those days. But China also developed infrastructure. I went to Sichuan in 2009, and before I went up, I called on the vice president, who was Xi Jinping. He said, "It's good that you're visiting Sichuan. It was after the Olympic Games." And I was the first foreign minister to visit Sichuan. And then they brought me to a Ning House, there on top was a satellite dish. It says, "Donated by the State Council and the Communist Party."
Okay. I think this is part of the 4 trillion RMB budget. [laughter] The specializations for what? TV. What? What? Well, to receive satellite communication, television, radio, whatever, you know. Okay. Yeah. But, but China was spending. Yeah. Yeah. And China could spend at the time. But China's economy at that time, I think it's one-third China's economy today. So today, if there's a global, another global financial crisis, yes, without China, the world will go into a deep recession. And US Treasury knows this. So even under Biden, Yellen was very careful to keep links with China, with Wang Yi, and so on. And because they knew that if there's a crisis, the US and China have to work together. And the US knows that the position of the US dollar as reserve currency requires China's cooperation.
Foreign! Foreign! Foreign! You got a new wife. Foreign speech. Foreign speech. Foreign! Foreign! Speech, speech! Foreign speech.