Transcription
Hello, good day everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review after a rather agitated night. Well, I made you a video last night in the heat of the moment, okay? Now, we've taken a bit more distance from what happened. We'll be able to go into a bit more detail, do a fairly concrete analysis whether it's BTC, Ether, and the Altcoins. The goal, as usual, always with transparency and simply to see concretely what we can do. And I will share with you what I am doing because I see many people on the internet who do analyses but do the opposite of what they say or do nothing of what they say. Everything I share, everything I say, I do it myself on my side. I'll just remind you before we start, you have 24 hours left until tomorrow evening to take advantage of the current offer. €200 off the Crypto Investor program. This is an offer I put in place given the market context which has been quite uh particular uh these last few days. I remind you, Crypto Investor is the best program to invest in cryptocurrencies professionally to build a tailor-made portfolio by putting the best cryptos in your portfolio. In the end, you will be 100% autonomous. 12 modules, two new ones are coming. Over 30 hours of video. The goal is for you to become an autonomous investor, for you to be able to perform fundamental analysis, tokenomic analysis, technical analysis, for you to be able to build a portfolio yourself, know when to enter, what to enter, at what time, when to take your profits, uh how to build your portfolio, adapted to your profile with a test here that we do with a tool that simply allows you to have a portfolio associated with your profile. I also share my portfolio with you. There are other modules that will simply allow you to succeed well in cryptos. It's much more than training, it's also support because you have follow-up here together. We can write to each other, we can exchange once a week, once a month, we go at your pace. It also depends on you and the speed at which you want to progress. So it's a very complete program that will simply allow you to handle this kind of crisis that we've experienced. You could have clearly taken advantage of it or at least limited the damage compared to many who took quite a hit. So I remind you, you have €200 off the Crypto Investor program. This is the last moment you can take advantage of this low price and the offer ends tomorrow evening. So if you want to take advantage of it, you have all the links by clicking on the first link in the description.
So on BTC, on cryptos, after this night, this evening especially, it happened at 11 PM, rather chaotic with enormous volatility, it must be said, it's a historic day, those who were in front of the screens, those who slept, unfortunately, I think waking up must have stung. It must have been quite quite particular and uh it's a historic day. I have never experienced anything so significant. Yet, there have been crashes, there was the Covid crash. There was May 2021. It was quite crazy, but in 2021, I had never experienced such a significant drop in such a short time. Drops in a few hours, yes, but this is in a few minutes, in 5, 10 minutes, there were cryptos that melted. If I take Arbitrum, I put myself on 1 minute, it's, wow. It was around 11:12 PM, 11:20 PM and 8 minutes later, it's -70%. It's crazy what happened. I'm telling you, when we look at liquidations, what is recorded by CoinGlass, we are at 20 billion. From what I saw on Twitter, there was much more, there were about 40 billion positions liquidated. And that's something I talked about 2 or 3 days ago, I think. I made a video on YouTube where I told you the most important thing is to preserve your capital. And many are looking to do the deal of the century, to say, "Hey, I'll put on a leverage of x2 or x3 because I'll have a liquidation level that will be quite low, for example at 50% for someone using x2 leverage." And the problem is that the person will condition themselves by saying, "No, it's impossible, my crypto can't go down 50%, not that fast, I'll have time to see it coming." And the problem is they are sure of something that is not sure, they are 100% convinced of something that is not sure. And there, they make a mistake and they have a flaw, it's that they don't manage their risk, they don't protect their capital. And the worst is those who had their spot portfolio that could serve as collateral for their future positions. Those who didn't use isolated positions but rather cross positions. As a result, all their accounts were wiped out. And I saw on Twitter, I saw this morning and I had said it in the video I made last night at midnight, I said it, there are people who lost astronomical sums and I saw people saying, "Well, I lost everything." Yes, there are people who say, "I lost everything." They may have spent years accumulating capital that they lost in 5, 10 minutes and that's how it is. It's after all a zero-sum game. These gains, these losses that were realized by these people, are gains for others for other people. But that's something I will always tell you, preserve your capital and the goal is not to do the deal of the century. And in this kind of phase where the market falls like this, it's still okay. But especially for altcoins, the most important thing is not to buy the best crypto, to try to do something incredible, even if it can be. I sought to make a profit, I did it on Hyperliquid, I'll show you later. But first, your goal is to limit the damage. Okay? If right now, you've taken a small drawdown, okay, you've taken maybe a small loss, a futures position that got liquidated, your spot has still lost value. But if you've limited the damage, you're already doing much better than many people. I'm telling you. And that's the most important thing, spot, spot, spot, spot. There's already enough volatility, especially on altcoins, to start with x10, x15, x20. Unless you're doing intraday, but for intraday, we take a position, we exit, we have a stop loss, okay, but we don't start saying, "Well, I'm using leverage like this for long-term investment." No, we're already in a market that is extremely volatile. Okay? BTC is a Nasdaq, it's an SP500 leveraged x4 x5 already by default. Okay? Why are you taking so much risk? So that's an important point. Now, if you limit the damage, then you can start to say, "Hey, I'll try to look for opportunities." Me first, I took opportunities, I had shared, here it is in the Discord, on Hyperliquid. I bought between approximately $28 and $25 and I took a good TP around $38. That's a good performance. It's the only position I took yesterday. Yes, I could have taken altcoins that then did x3 x4 because they took more of a hit. I told you in this kind of context, my goal is simply to 1) limit the damage. Okay. And 2) if I can make profits, I will, but I will focus on the strongest altcoins.
Someone asked me, "Yes, what did you place your orders on?" I place them on BingX, okay, I have two exchanges, spot long-term Binance and where I can afford to be a bit more aggressive, or even if I can't enter positions on Binance, I'll do it on BingX, and since Hyperliquid is not listed on Binance, I do it on BingX and I haven't had any problems. I know there have been a lot of problems on some exchanges for entering positions. And well, you have to adapt. After, there are decentralized exchanges, there's plenty to do elsewhere. It's not, yes, it's the exchange's fault, but it's something very important, it's, be careful who you entrust your responsibilities to. Okay? I see too many who will say, "Yes, it's because of Donald Trump. Yes, it's because of the exchanges. Yes, there's market manipulation. Yes, it's because of so-and-so." No, you are responsible. Okay, that's an important point. If you start to absolve yourself, you never progress. And I've always been uncompromising about that, whether for myself or towards others regarding responsibilities. Whether it's the people I follow, whom I coach in my training, or myself, you are responsible for everything that happens to you. Personally, I'm only on Binance and I can't enter positions because Binance prevents me. I'm not going to start saying, "Yeah, Binance are assholes." No, no, no, it's my fault. It's my fault because I should have had liquidity elsewhere on other exchanges, on a decentralized exchange, on a wallet, on another exchange. It's my fault. Take your own responsibilities. If you refuse to take them, you will never progress and you will never learn the lesson that can be had in this kind of drop. So, well, let's start with BTC. Well, the good thing is, it's always complicated to do a technical analysis when you have such significant wicks. I'm telling you, it's much more delicate because yes, we took quite a hit. Okay, that's a fact, we went to quite low levels, but it's always complicated on certain cryptos with such low wicks to do an analysis. It's more complicated, in my opinion. That's why I especially look at the closes in this kind of context. Well, in terms of closes, what's good is that we still managed to save the 112,000 level at the last minute. As for 117,000, we smashed it. I thought maybe with a bit of late evening until 2 AM, we'd push and re-enter, but we didn't. We are still in this big sideways phase here. And in fact, typically the kind of drop we had yesterday, yes, it's clearly opportunities. They are bottoms on certain altcoins. There's a high chance we won't go back to chase these wicks. Now, it's true that technically, low wicks like this are often retested. For example, BTC, I'll take May 2000, May 2021. We had here on daily a quite significant drop of -30%, which is a good drop for BTC, and the wick was retested. You see? So it's true that often wicks like this, we retest them. It's not systematic, but it's quite often that we have low wicks and we come back to retest them. See this wick, we have a similarly low wick. Here, we had -22%. The wick, we retested it. It's quite common. Now, will it be the same this time? As I said, I was asked in the Discord, they asked me, "Yes, Nico, what do you think of the situation?" Honestly, there were opportunities to position oneself. There might still be some because technically, Ether, well, we are at a support level. There could be opportunities right now to position oneself. Now, I would rather be in a context where, yes, it's interesting to perhaps reallocate cash and invest in certain cryptos, the strongest cryptos, those where you have strong convictions, but keep some cash because we are in an uncertain market, that's a fact. The person who will tell you, "That's it, it's going back to the moon," I wouldn't be so sure. Okay, we are in an uncertain market, rather than saying, like some, "That's it, manipulation, yes, it's BlackRock, it's the IRS, it's Trump, etc., and it's going to pump to the moon." No. Okay, preservation of capital, risk management, the most important thing. I don't want to send you to the poorhouse, and besides, you are responsible for what you do. I tell you what I do, I share advice, but then it's you who make your own decisions. I would still advise you to have cash. And you see, I was saying it before, people who took their profits and respected their cash-crypto balance well, well, here they could take advantage of certain opportunities. The person who is 100% crypto, well, here they look at their screens and they can't do anything.
Well, BTC, the weekly close will also be interesting. Ideally, in a best-case scenario, it would be good not to close below this level because then we would have a liquidity grab followed by a reversal, which would be quite quite brutal, and yes, these are not good closes, especially after taking the high. Technically, we are still in an uptrend, we are maintaining the daily and weekly tunnel. As long as we hold these lows and don't go below them. My big level, I told you about BTC, which really tells me it's the bear market, quite confidently, if we lose $100,000 on a weekly close below that, it's quite ugly. Okay, I had started to say if we start closing below $117,000, it's not great either. The difference is that we are going there following a cascade of liquidations and an announcement by customs. I generally prefer to go there in a more classic way without having such a big bearish news. Now, it's a fact, we have indeed closed below. So we clearly have a loss of short and medium-term momentum. Short to medium-term, it's ugly, but we are at support, so I'm not going to start taking shorts right now. And yes, we are in a good zone to take longs. With the low wicks we've had, we've shaken up quite a few people. We've unloaded, we see it on the open interest, quite a few positions. So, yes, quite a few people were liquidated here on the altcoins, I won't even mention it. So, as I said, we are in a market that is rather uncertain at support. There can be opportunities, but with very good risk management, don't do anything stupid, okay? And overall, be very cautious. Now, in the short term, for the moment, we remain here in a bearish trend. We see the 3-minute tunnel acting as resistance. Okay? If we go to test the 15-minute tunnel, it could be a good zone to look for shorts. I will really be watching on Monday how the market reacts because the crypto market has fallen like this. The US market was closed. We'll have to see the opening of the US market. What does it give in terms of ETFs, in terms of all that? The last ETFs, we had, well, this is quite incredible. It's a pattern that I notice quite often that I share with you. Every time we have peaks above around $1 billion in inflows on BTC spot ETFs, often when we have very significant peaks, we are not far from setting a top. I'm telling you, we see each time we've set a top, see this top, it's set right when we have strongly positive inflows. Here, we have strong inflows, we are starting to see a slowdown. Here, we have a significant peak. There, market top on a significant peak. Here, same. Here, same. At this level, same. And there, at this level, same. So, keep that in mind, that when we have significant inflows like this, we are often not far from a top. I was talking about it with someone in the Discord not long ago as well. It seems that when we have negative inflows, we are often at bottoms. Don't start saying, "It's positive inflows, to the moon." No, by the time we have positive inflows, people have already bought. This is something you need to take into account, okay? It's not that they will buy, it's that they have already bought.
So, not much more to say on BTC. I'd be curious to hear from you, tell me in the comments, how you experienced this drop psychologically, emotionally. Take a little step back on this. It's more important, it's for you. It will allow me to see a bit how you reacted. If I can help you, don't hesitate to contact me on Discord or in the YouTube comments, I generally reply to everyone. Well, it depends, if I'm asked a question, I'll answer it. If you just send a message, I'll put a little like, a little heart because sometimes many of you ask me questions, well, send me a message, but if you ask me a question, I will answer it, of course. But well, take a step back to know what you did and what you could have done so that in a new situation that arises like this, even if in 1 year, 2 years, you will perhaps have the right reflexes. I'm doing an Ether analysis. Overall, Ether, we are coming back to test this major resistance zone. For me, this is a level where I will be uncompromising. I want this level to hold. Why? Because it's clearly a major support level. Clearly, if we start to settle below $3800 on a weekly close, if we manage to reject, if we don't hold this level, honestly, it would be really not great. We already see in pure close, we are marking a market top with lower lows and lower highs. Okay, so we are in a context for Ether that I don't particularly like. Liquidity grab at this level. We make a new ATH but not a real breakout. In the meantime, we dump. If we start to settle below this level, for me, Ether can come back to test $3000 overall. Similarly, we have a significant wick on Ether. We had quite a bit of liquidation. We still took -20% on the second largest crypto in one day. Okay. Now, this is where it's much more mature because if I take my 2021, I think the May 2021 drop was more significant from memory. This level on Ether -43%, so we see that there is more liquidity, more buyers protecting. Yes, it's a more mature market. We see the drops are less significant. 43% on Ether is huge in one day. Now, -20% when we see that some cryptos, some cryptos took -70%, that's where we see that Ether, well, is much stronger than in recent years. Even though the price is not globally similar. When we take -40% here, we are at roughly the same price levels as we are currently. Okay? So we see that it shows, there's still more volume, more people interested in crypto, and that's also why we had much more liquidation. It's normal, more participants, more liquidation. Now, it's sure, more liquidity that can absorb these liquidations, but on the other hand, more short squeezes or long squeezes that can happen. And we see that BTC and Ether have resisted rather well. The big cryptos BNB, Solana, okay, even though they took a hit, but there are altcoins, there were big liquidity problems that we'll talk about just after. So yes, Ether on a major support level in the daily tunnel as well. We have a good reaction. I want to see this level hold. If it doesn't hold, frankly, it wouldn't be great. So, yes, we are at a support level. That's a fact. We are in a good zone for positioning. Why? Because in this zone, we will rather look for longs than shorts. I'm not looking to position myself as a short-seller at a support level. And conversely, when I'm a buyer, I don't position myself at a resistance level. Okay? It's classic, most people do the opposite. When we are at a support level, they look for shorts. When we are at a resistance level, they look for longs. So yes, very good zone for positioning where we are, but again, with good risk management. What's certain is that it's better to position yourself on Ether after a -21% or lower, -30%, than when we are close to making a new ATH. If I draw a Fibonacci taking this movement, we should come back to 0.382. Yes, anyway, there is good confluence in this zone. It's our first stop. It's in its interest to hold. After, it's not me who makes the market. If it breaks, it breaks. I'm not in prayer mode, I'm not behind my screen saying, "Ah, it has to hold, it has to hold. Otherwise, it's a mess. Otherwise, that's it, I'm going to get liquidated everywhere." No, not at all. Okay? I will adjust my positions accordingly. I will know what to do accordingly. It's just ideally it's better if it holds to maintain this price structure and the breakout of this ATH range. Now, in the short term, it's exactly the same as what I said about BTC. We are clearly in a downtrend. I think we will consolidate like this on Saturday and Sunday given the move that has already happened. I don't think all those who were liquidated will come back to the charge so quickly, and well, the market will calm down. I don't think we'll have as much volume here as we had on Ether. It's quite crazy what happened. Experiencing it is quite crazy, and yes, that's where you see that you have to put your emotions aside, have a plan, have a strategy, otherwise it's very complicated.
So, BTC, Ether, we've done that, now altcoins. Well, some altcoins will bounce back more than others, that's normal. Others that went much, much lower. Frankly, I'm very happy and I maintain my position on Hyperliquid because when you look honestly at the drawdown it experienced, okay, and how it recovered at a speed, really at a speed. We already took -50%, which is less than some altcoins that took 70%, but we still took a hit on Hyperliquid. But when you see how we bounced back and how Hyperliquid bounced back compared to some altcoins, it's crazy, okay? It's crazy. And Hyperliquid was bouncing back while altcoins continued to fall. The demand for Hyperliquid is crazy. My orders were executed. I was lucky, whether you call it luck or not. But in any case, my orders were executed at a good price. I took profit on a part, I showed you on Discord just before because I estimate that we had reached interesting zones. Now, this is what I call "fishing orders" simply. These are orders that we will simply place on cryptos. We have strong convictions. You can't do it on anything else. If you don't have conviction in the crypto, there's no point. And I place several orders like this. I say, "Hey, I want to buy for X amount," let's say for example for 10k. Okay, I'll buy for 10k, I divide that by 10 or by 15, okay, and I set a price range like this, and you can say, "Hey, between $20 and $28, distribute 15 positions with a capital of $10,000." It will divide that by 15. It will tell you, "Well, you enter here, here, here." On the exchange, I place my orders and then, well, a part of it is executed. More or less, it depends. This is what I do on cryptos where I have strong convictions. Okay, and ideally on good retracements. I won't put that at $45. Okay. This is a very important point that I advise you to do, which we did together in March-April 2025, okay. I did it for Hyperliquid. I did it for BTC and Ether. This is interesting when we have drops like this.
So, for Hyperliquid, regarding AAVE, we have, well, I'm taking AAVE because it's an interesting case as well. We came back to test a rather low level. Okay? Globally, $100, we went to take the low here, and it's the same, you see, if you take extremely strong cryptos like this, you put them on weekly supports, my slippage, well. Now, I'm not saying you can buy that low, I know that on some exchanges it was a struggle, I'm saying that, but maybe you were able to position yourself at a price, I'm not saying at $80, but $170, $180. I discussed with someone in the Discord as well who told me that they were able to position themselves at a rather low price. So, you see, it's the same, fishing orders on major weekly, monthly support levels in long-term reloading zones on cryptos like this that are interesting. And these are moves that might happen once every 2 or 3 years, but you can still achieve good performance. I say this is for those who are already a bit more experienced, who don't enter here with leverage, and who especially have already limited the damage and haven't been liquidated everywhere, because typically, you don't buy a falling knife, unless you really know what you're doing. But now it's complicated to buy. There are quite a few altcoins that have bounced back very well, it's always more complicated. There are cryptos that have taken less of a hit than others. It's true, I was quite surprised by TAO, which, while it corrected, it's a fact, but not that much. Okay? -30%, -30% and it had already started to correct before. So if we take from the moment the drop started, -26%, we bounced back quite quickly. There was still demand for TAO, or not a lot of liquidation, but it's rather good. We are still at a support level. The job to do here is to take, globally, strong altcoins. You take the strong altcoins, those that interest you from a fundamental point of view and that are strong. What is there? There's BNB, which didn't take too much of a hit either, which corrected, but it's okay. Solana, Solana is rather interesting, pulling back to a support level, and then there are others that are ugly, that's a fact. Near, it's still okay. I saw what? I saw Kaspa, it's not great. Sui, it's okay. We went quite low on it, it's crazy. Arbitrum, it's not great. PEPE, we hit a low, but the structure is not great. You see, JUP is not great, STX is not great, ALGO is not great, ATOM is not great either. But if you take altcoins like these that are in ugly uptrends, Solana, BNB, then these are the cryptos that are interesting for me. And what you can also do in this kind of context is to note the altcoins that have bounced back very well, where there was good momentum, and to observe globally, okay, which crypto performs better than others, and so on and so forth. For example, if I take this week, we look at the cryptos that took the biggest hit. BNB, well, for the week, it's correct, we're doing well at -1%. You see, compared to others that took a significant hit. And like that, you take the cryptos that held up the best, Bitcoin Cash, XRP. Well. There are others. PEPE, APT, it's not great. You see, TAO is rather good. AAVE is rather good. But cryptos like WIF, TIA, well, they are rather ugly. These are not the kind of cryptos we will trade. And it's interesting to look at those that bounced back the best, those that were bought a lot. That's how you can globally sort out which crypto is strong, which crypto is less strong.
So, I'll leave you with this. I especially wanted to give you a quick update after what happened. I will resume the analysis of your altcoins in the coming days. I remind you, if you have lost a lot, yes, it's terrible. Okay, but there are worse things in life. Talk about it. Okay? You are not alone. If you want to join the Discord, click on the first link in the description. You will join a very good community that is progressing enormously with people who have managed the drop yesterday well, I think, how I was able to discuss with some. I think it was managed rather well. I am really proud to have this community that is progressing enormously and especially that has a good mentality. There is a very good group. Don't hesitate to join it. You have traders, investors, you have really everything. And if you want to train yourself, I remind you, you have until tomorrow evening at the latest, and you have 24 hours left to take advantage of the €200 offer on the Crypto Investor program. As soon as you have joined the program, contact me. I will also add you to the private group. I'll leave you with this. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for a next video.