Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, November 7, 2025. The crypto market is regaining a little bit of green, which is pleasing. Of course, we can't say "That's it, we're out of the woods, it's off to the moon." But this morning, for example, in the news video I shared with you, as every morning, there were some on-chain indicators coming directly from Crypto and Glassnode that told us "Doesn't it smell like a little bottom soon?" That's all, we still have to be cautious with that. Announcing bottoms is always complicated. It takes time to create a bottom. It's never in a few hours, not even in a few days, sometimes not even a week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks. But in any case, in this morning's on-chain indices, we see that we have a capitulation, a sell-off, we have fear levels that were reached when the bottoms of this year in April or last year in August 2024 were reached. There, Bitcoin had found a bottom at those times. That's why it seems like maybe a bottom not too long from now. We'll try to see where we are too. So, yesterday the ETFs were rather buyers, which is pleasing. 239 million dollars of Bitcoin purchases, a small 12 million for Ethereum. So, the market is still in fear, that's normal. Afterwards, it's certain, really, I insist, I often say it, we have a very, very complicated cycle where Bitcoin is really very detached from altcoins, meaning, we have altcoins that are really at the bottom of hell, in bear market mode, they have come back to retest their lows from 2020. There are atrociously ugly altcoin charts and I'm talking about altcoins that are in the top 100 that have come back to test their lows from 2020, 2021, 2022, it's atrocious. So not everyone has the same portfolio. Some are taking a big hit unfortunately with certain altcoins, others are taking a little less of a hit, and unfortunately, the one taking the least hit is Bitcoin. I say that unfortunately because most people are in altcoins so it's complicated. So courage to you who are in altcoins, you have to always pay attention to these things.
Now, at the altcoin level today, a small green candle which is pleasing. We had Monday, Tuesday here, the break of the lower Bollinger band. We could have had a rather terrible slide effect. The Bollinger bands are starting to spread apart, but since we are starting to re-enter, it's not bad. It's the beginning of something. We can't say "Yes, it's good, the bottom is here, let's go everyone." But no, we don't say that. We say that for now, we are avoiding an apocalyptic drama which would have been really red candles aligning with the spreading Bollinger bands. And there, really, it's a slide effect. What would be even better is if the altcoins recover their tank here, the first resistance at 693 billion and especially the 200-day moving average and Kijun at 731 billion. If altcoins recover this level, it's very good. And what is this level here, the 200-day moving average and the Kijun? Well, it's exactly the top of the trendline. When I move the candle to the left here, you see it moves to the right too, you see. And so this level here is the top of a trendline. So that means altcoins breaking the 200-day moving average and the Kijun, which are strong resistances, altcoins breaking the bearish trendline. And then, we can say it's starting to smell good. We don't forget that altcoins have gone to their oversold zone. So they were oversold. That's it, there was the capitulation of short-term holders. I showed you that in this morning's video. I'll show you again in the coming days. These are people who bought Bitcoin and altcoins less than 6 months ago and are selling at a loss. We are at loss-making levels that we saw during the bottoms of April 2025 and August 2024. This morning's on-chain analyses showed it. I'm not pulling it out of my hat. I only pull rabbits out of my hat. That's all. So it's interesting. It means that we have capitulation levels like we had before in the old bottoms of big corrections. It doesn't mean that yes, it's good, the bottom is now, it's pushing. It means that either soon, maybe we will create a small bottom. That's the idea.
So, we are still in this famous regular. So we are very careful because here we look at the structure itself and we forget everything else. We forget the on-chain data, we forget everything. We only look at the structure. The structure tells us that to finish the regular, we have to break the low here. You see? So the structure on one hand tells us be careful, I need to make a small -15 here to validate the regular to have a small A, a small B, a small C before moving on. Because if the structure doesn't break, it means we are in a rarer structure. We call it a contracting flat with an A, a B that is a zigzag, a small C, and then it takes off. It's a structure that exists, it contracts or compression triangles, call it what you want. It's a bit rarer. So that's why we just have to be careful not to have one last descent. But since we are at quite high capitulation levels, it's certain that if we have this last descent, there will be no one left, you see. And then it will smell like good weather. We also have small bullish divergences starting to appear. OK, so that's good news. So for now, OK, it could still correct, it could still be a bit ugly, but we are starting to have some nice little smells starting to arrive. Instead of smelling like crap, it's starting to smell a little bit better than crap. That's the idea.
At the Bitcoin level, well, it's also avoiding breaking its lower Bollinger band which is around $100,800. This little Bitcoin is supported. You see, everything that goes below $101,000, $101,000, $101,300 is bought back. Now, $100,000 is normal, it's like concrete support level. So it's normal, it's defended. However, we can't say that $100,000 can't be broken. Can Bitcoin go break $100,000 and go for its gap at 92? It remains possible, of course. Now, $100,000 is not easy to break. This morning we also saw large buying levels around $100,000. Bitcoin is not far from its oversold zone, if it really decides to make a small dip to 98, 97, or even 92, it will be fully in the oversold zone. And then, for sure, there will be strong signs of a bottom because oversold zones on daily Bitcoin are not seen often. The last time was in March 2025. Before that, it was in July-August 2024. So you really, really don't see them often. So it's certain that a Bitcoin crashing into the oversold zone will be the best time for me, in any case, to do my little Bitcoin shopping. I'm not giving any investment advice. So, will it finish small A, small B, small C? Will small C finish here, or will C continue to the gap? That's the question we're asking. If we look at the liquidations here, we see that there's enough to liquidate up to $95,000. There's about 2 billion. On the other hand, there's 9 billion if it goes to $113,000. There's more to the north, you see. To the south, the big leverages are up to 98. So, doesn't it want to make a small dip to 98? Why would I talk about 98? Because there are liquidations. And 98 is the lowest wick that was made here on June 22, 2025, because after the next wick, we'll have to look for around 93, which was made in May 2025. So, doesn't it just want to make a small dip below this wick, you see, I don't know, but then poof, go eat some small stop losses that are there because the big leverages are hidden under this wick, you see, and then it takes off again. Or else, it's direct, it crashes below 92, well, at the gap at 92,000, you see.
So, for now, it's dragging a bit, and we'll see what it proposes. It's certain that, as I said in the video on the VIP Telegram channel this morning, if it drags in an ascending channel like this, it will be a descent. So if we see Bitcoin making an ascending channel, even a big one like this, boom, it will be a descent. What we want to see is an impulse followed by a correction and then boom, it will be the remontada. For now, it's struggling to pass its 200-day moving average around $3,400. However, it has touched its oversold zone again. So, not too long from now, it will start to create a bottom. I even want to say that a bottom is being created now. Afterwards, maybe it will go a bit lower, maybe it will take another week, 2 weeks. But there's this gap, we need to be careful about 2853, it could go there. Small A, small B, it can make small C, boom, it can still boom boom. In fact, a nice end to C would be a bearish channel that goes boom boom boom boom, something like that. And then it would be very good. It would be a nice structural end and it would take off again. That's what we would like. Okay? Or else, what we would like is, like Bitcoin, like everyone, an impulse followed by a correction and then it pushes because if it makes a small ascending channel, small A, small B, small C, it will be a descent. So it will be a regular to go down. So that's what we'll be watching for in terms of structure for Ethereum. Ethereum is also starting to draw bullish divergences. So these things are starting to look not too bad, you see. In short, you see, I... well, after all, each analyst has the right to be either ultra positive or ultra negative. I try to be as neutral as possible. I'm not going to say it stinks, we're all going to die, when there are small bullish divergences being created. On-chain analyses are starting to show signs of capitulation that we saw when we found the bottoms of 2025 and 2024. So there are positive things. I can't say it's good. It's just going to fall. Come on, cryptos are too bad, we're all going to die. Don't say that. When there are positive things coming out. When there are no positive things, I don't say it. This summer, I spent 2 months harping on and on. Be careful, there are bearish divergences. On-chain analyses show a distribution period. This summer, I went into "look at all this, cryptos are rising, it doesn't look good." And it didn't fail. Boom, we crashed. There's never smoke without fire. Now, the opposite is starting to happen. Small things that show small analyses, on-chain analyses, technical analyses, the structure, all that, it's starting to smell positive, but that doesn't mean it can't fall a bit lower, but it's starting to be nice little things, you see, that's the idea. So, in short, in this black hole or in the flames, we're starting to see a small bottle of water, you see, in the flames. So, you're still burning, it stings, but you can have a small bottle of water to quench your thirst. That's a bit like saying, I don't know if it's the best metaphor, but you get the idea.
So, small bullish divergence is starting to form. The bears are still there. Oversold zone, it was rather interesting. Now, well, it needs to pass its 3400 moving average to be good, and especially the Kijun here at 3683. And if we see an impulse, correction, and continuation, then it's good, it's off to the races to go up to around $3750 where 4 billion dollars are waiting. To the south, yes, to the south, there's about a billion and a bit waiting around $3000. So, can it go to $3000? Clearly, it can go there, boom boom boom boom, like this. In short, the best thing it could do for Bitcoin is to do something like this, very slow, and then it would take off again. For Ethereum, it wouldn't be, and for Bitcoin, it would be the same. It would be something like this, a structural exhaustion, something boring but boring that lasts 2 weeks, 3 weeks where it falls a bit bearish, and then it's good, it's the end, and it will take off again. We need that. For now, we don't have that.
Now, Solana. So it's the same. There's the gap at 121 saying "hello, I'm here, come get me." But on the other hand, you see that we had two days, Monday and Tuesday, of breaking the lower Bollinger band. It's starting to calm down. Now, the Bollinger bands are clearly starting to spread apart, and here it's just losing a bit of momentum, let's say, for the lower Bollinger band. Will Solana try to go green to attack, especially here, Solana needs to attack its 200-day moving average and its Kijun at 180. If it starts to break this level, well, it's going above the upper band of the channel, and it will smell good. So 180 is a very important level. Solana also went to its oversold zone, which is good. The bears, well, today they're getting a bit tired. There are daily bullish divergences starting to appear. Well, that's not bad. As usual, I'm not saying the bottom is here, but I'm saying there are nice little things starting to happen, you see. So you have to take them as they come. We're not going to say no, we're all going to die, it's definitely the bear market. So when there are positive things, we take them and we hope they will turn into a small recovery, you see. So Solana is the same as everyone else. If it proposes an ascending channel like this, boom, it will be a descent. For an impulse, correction, and continuation, heading for the gap. If it doesn't propose this ascending channel, but proposes a big impulse followed by a correction, it's good, it's over. It's started. If it proposes zigzag zigzag zigzag downwards, it will smell good if... these are the different structures it could propose. And like everyone else, there's a lot of liquidation to the north to be taken, and a little to the south around 140 if it wants to nibble, nibble, nibble a bit around 140 or later. And we would actually like to have a bearish channel. We would prefer that, you see, to take off again. We don't want an ascending channel. That will prolong the descent. It's clearly an ascending channel. We'll see it in the coming days.
At XRP's level, it's the same. It's holding its lower Bollinger band at 218, which is good. Now, the bears don't have much momentum. XRP is less sold than the rest, but then you'll tell me XRP took a -5% hit in one wick, so I'm not surprised there's no one left either. So, for now, it's like everyone else. If XRP decides on an ascending channel, small A, small B, small C, boom, it will be a descent that continues. If XRP proposes a big impulse followed by a correction, it will push. If it proposes a zigzag zigzag zigzag, something boring, a bearish channel, it will push. So like everyone else, it has a lot of liquidity to the north. If XRP goes to 250, it has 300 million to seek, a small 12 million approximately if it goes below 2 dollars. For now, it's attacking to the north as we can see here, it's attacking the big leverages to the north, so that's rather good.
Alright, to finish, a quick look at the stock market. So for now, a bit of red in the stock market, it's not very pretty. You see, I'm also showing on the right NVIDIA losing 4 - 4.25%. Not very good. Google - 2.84%, Meta - 2.58%, Tesla - 4%. So the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are taking the same red candle as yesterday. So it's not good. The stock market is starting to correct. Well, a bit of a shame, I'd say, because well, cryptos corrected while the stock market continued to push, and now that finally, well, we continue to have red, and the stock market is starting to have red, so not too much of that.
Well, today the only figure came out, the only data not related to the Fed is the survey by the University of Michigan which surveys how consumers are doing, and well, consumers. The level has dropped significantly. So we are told this figure represents the second lowest ever recorded. You see, Americans are increasingly worried about potential economic repercussions from the long government shutdown, the longest in history. It's a mess. I've seen some small things, some not pretty videos. There are people who are normally paid by the state who go to the food bank, things like that, to get food, you see, because they haven't been paid. Some are really struggling, poor things. It's ugly. For some, it's ugly. You see, it's not like I'm caricaturing, "Oh, Robert Alfred sipped a little hot chocolate in front of Netflix." No, there are really people who no longer have the money to buy a hot chocolate and pay for Netflix. So it's not pretty. At some point, the Democrats will have to agree. Anyway, we also have problems in France, there are problems everywhere. So for now, Wall Street is not doing well, nor is the Stoxx 600. Well, there's still a 70% probability of a rate cut for December, but well, a lot will happen between now and December, that's for sure. So here, it's not very good. Now, where it will really start to be much less good is if we start to break this low here, for example, for the S&P 500, and this low for the Nasdaq, then we'll start to say "Ah, it's going to be a more serious correction than expected." Well, nothing is expected, but you get the idea. So we wouldn't want to break that, especially for the tech sector. If we start to break that, we'll say "Ah, it stung there, you see?" And then, for our little bottom in cryptos, we'll have to be a bit more patient. It might hurt. In short, it's simple. If the S&P 500 starts to drop like this, the Nasdaq too, well, it's Bitcoin heading for 92. I don't want it to, but well, it's not about what I want or don't want. You see, European tech, boom, it's a descent towards the 200-day moving average. So it's not great for now. The stock market, well, a small green candle, and people are a bit worried, so they're returning to safe havens like gold here. The crypto action level is not too good. Bitcoin is falling, heading for the 200-day moving average. MicroStrategy is a false green, you see, it opened down, it made a bit of green, but it opened red, so it's not good. Marathon broke the 100-day moving average, heading down. Riot down, mining down, CleanSpark down, Block didn't show good enough results, all down, and Galaxy Digital also down. It's also going into defensive stocks, it's eating a bit of Treasury bills, government bonds. In short, today there's fear, they're selling stocks, they're buying defensive stocks, precious metals, and the bond market. And the dollar is also taking a hit because, you see, it's being rejected by its 200-day moving average. Is it normal or not for this little dollar to take a hit? Theoretically, for it to take a hit and for us to have more probability of a rate cut. Well, that's a bit the case today. The fact that investors here, well, that this survey shows that investors are very worried about the economic repercussions of what's happening in the US means that the probability of rate cuts increases a bit for the end of the year, which means the dollar also takes its little hit. Be careful, everything is linked as usual.
Yes, friends. Well, so on one hand, we have an ugly market that's scary, clearly. On the other hand, we've had some on-chain analyses that show us that, come on, we're starting to go towards capitulation levels that are creating bottoms. But if necessary, we'll go lower. If necessary, people will capitulate even lower. We don't know. What am I doing? I'm tightening my belt, quietly continuing to accumulate my little Bitcoin, and waiting for the shit to pass, as usual. Well, as usual, there's nothing else to do. I'm sending you kisses. Stay strong, friends, and I'll see you tomorrow. Bye bye. Heh.