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Iranian commercial airlines, you see, brought people back. When they were flying in, Saudi Arabia sent fighter jets to escort them, dropping bombs, trying to force them not to land in Hodeidah. That's why they were angry. That's why they came out and said, from now on, we will close the Bab el-Mandeb strait again. And American soldiers are not soldiers who fight like common people. They fight in comfort. Those on the ground, if they can seize it, it's not that they can hold it for long. Vietnam, where the United States at that time, brought planes to fly around, what was it? The United States, planes were parked in Vietnam. Iran is 10 times larger than Vietnam. Why would the soldiers be ashamed? Oh, it's a big deal. It caused a loss. >> This is the general feed system in the market. This part. [Music] >> A fuel cost management system with no hidden fees and benefits [Music] and Max Points. >> But I still believe one thing, the professor must have a trump card. If they don't have a trump card, if it's truly decisive, it must be on the ground. They must go in and seize it. That's truly decisive. This trump card, professor, do you think it's possible? >> No, I've looked at it. On the ground, you see, uh, the military officers, they speak clearly, saying they can seize it, but the question is, for how many days can they seize it? This question will always arise. We must understand that American soldiers are not soldiers who fight like common people. >> They fight like the rich. >> They fight [inhale sound] in comfort. Uh, so they let the soldiers, you see, go into the ravines of Iran, you see, and then we will send fresh water, which must be very good water [laughter] through a safe process, and we will send food, which must be very good food, and we will send ammunition. How will we send it? >> Yes. >> They can seize it, but they can't hold it for long. And someone tried to explain, saying that Vietnam, where the United States at that time, brought planes to fly around, what was it? You must understand, the United States, planes were parked in Vietnam. >> Yes. >> This one has to fly from [laughter] >> From the [cough sound] aircraft carrier, right? >> And at that time, originally, you see, flying from nearby in Kuwait, etc., now they can't fly anymore. Like this, Saudi Arabia won't allow them to fly. They have to fly from, uh, uh, uh, Jordan, uh, Israel, which is 1,300, 1,400 kilometers, and they have to refuel along the way all the time. This is more difficult. And they explained, saying. >> Believe me, try to compare, just the size, you see, Iran is 10 times larger than Vietnam. >> Uh-huh. >> Even Vietnam couldn't handle it, they lost. So how do you think you can handle Iran? Therefore, the term "boots on the ground," I think the soldiers in America, I'll tell you, tell Trump, Trump, it will cause a loss, a severe loss, to the point where they can't withdraw. If American soldiers die, oh, it's a very big deal. >> Iran would probably want Americans to occupy it. The Houthi would surely win, and they would gain fame. So Trump wouldn't be foolish enough to fall into Iran's trap. Correct. >> Correct. >> Oh, so we don't need to talk about this anymore because it's like we've talked about it, and it probably won't happen. But what, what I'd like the professor to analyze further is, since the professor said they closed two straits, will Trump allow it? If Trump doesn't allow it, will they bomb Hodeidah? Isn't Hodeidah easier to do? At the first level. >> They've bombed it before, Khun Nadi. Let's go back in time, about 3-4 years ago. Believe me, it was Saudi Arabia that sent planes, because Saudi Arabia's air force is entirely American planes. They brought them in and bombed Yemen for 2 years. >> Uh. >> They couldn't handle it, they couldn't bring it down, right? >> Uh. >> And the Houthis this time, why are they retaliating? Because when they were going to send people, you see, to pay respects at the funeral in Iran. >> Ah. Apparently, they, uh, the other side said to use planes from the, uh, uh, uh, government side, which is the opposite of the Houthi side. They refused. So they used Iranian planes, a commercial airline. When the Iranian commercial airline, you see, brought people back, when they were flying in, Saudi Arabia sent fighter jets to escort them, trying to force them not to land. Apparently, they didn't listen, they kept coming, they kept coming. So Saudi Arabia bombed the runway of the airport where they were supposed to land. Iran didn't fly back, but landed at a small airport instead. That's why they were angry. They said, this is not acceptable. That's why they came out and said, from now on, we will close the Bab el-Mandeb strait again. >> I, I listened to the speech of that Houthi leader as well, at the event. >> Uh, invited to the Tehran City Hall, and there were many representatives from various countries. There was, uh, the leader, I don't remember his name, but a Houthi leader from Germany. He asked to express his opinion, to express his thoughts. The leader came and spoke. He spoke in Arabic, probably. I couldn't understand, but it was translated into English. He said he was very ashamed that he hadn't sacrificed for our land, but that Mr. Soleimani had sacrificed before him. >> He said he had spoken with Mr. Soleimani and told him that he wanted to sacrifice his life for religion. But he never imagined that Mr. Soleimani would sacrifice himself before him. He felt very ashamed. Something like that. And he had a very bold personality. I saw, wow, this person is definitely a warrior. He looked strong, big, and spoke like a soldier. Uh, I felt, yes, this is a real Houthi. [Laughter] >> No, and if you, Khun Thani, look at the terrain of Yemen, you see, which is on the edge of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, like Iran. >> Oh, really? On the Iranian side, it's all mountains. >> Oh, high ground. >> So, it's not just high ground, there are caves. They hide their weapons and things in there. >> When they want to shoot, they take them out and shoot, then they hide them back. >> Hide, hide back in the mountains, then come out and shoot, then hide back. >> Correct, correct. That's why no matter how many times you bomb, you can't get rid of them. >> Oh, so the terrain is advantageous, like in the Three Kingdoms. You have fewer people, but your terrain is superior, and you will surely win. >> Uh, fighting against the great and powerful, the weaker side must do this, hide. >> You can chase me, you can stop killing me, it's bad. [Laughter] >> It's like Zhuge Liang. >> Correct, correct. >> Uh, so it's difficult to suppress them. No matter how you suppress them, they won't die. So the Bab el-Mandeb strait is only 22 kilometers. If one person shoots a missile, no one dares to pass. I think it's difficult. >> No, when the Houthis announced, yesterday, they said that oil tankers from Saudi Arabia that were heading south have now turned back, 4 of them. [Laughter] They didn't even test it. They didn't want to prove clearly whether you would actually shoot or not. They saw it. [Laughter] So they turned back. >> Oh, they turned back north in the Red Sea, not south. >> Yes, so they can go to Suez, right? Go to the Suez Canal. >> Go to Suez, how? Go around the world? >> Of course, they have no other choice. >> Oh, I don't know if they know. Uh, Khun Thani, closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait will have a greater impact on oil prices than many people think. >> Oh, really? I asked the AI. If they refuel in Yanbu and go north, then through the Suez Canal, then through the Mediterranean, then around Africa, then through the Cape of Good Hope, then to Japan, how many days? It said 70 or 75 days. >> By the time they arrive, the oil price will have dropped. [Laughter] >> It's not just a loss. >> Khun Thani, when you return, you will have to go around the same way. >> Oh. >> 75 days. Therefore, ships, you see, which originally could carry this much oil, in the future, they will be able to carry half of it, maybe not even that much, because of the distance and time of travel. >> Not enough ships. >> Not enough ships. And besides that, you see, the problem is the Suez Canal. Large oil tankers, one of them carries 2 million barrels. These large tankers, when there is no oil, they can pass through the Suez Canal. When there is oil, they cannot. >> Uh-huh. >> Because the Suez Canal is shallower. When there is oil, it sinks deeper. So, when the ship arrives, it can only sail from Yanbu to the canal. Then they have to pump the oil out with a hose and put it on the other side. [Laughter] Then they get the oil from there. >> This hose can only carry about 2 million barrels. So the speed drops drastically. Now, if the Houthis decide to escalate and say, as soon as a ship docks, I will send a drone [cough sound] to visit, I will send a missile to visit. >> Uh. >> And if ships don't come at all, it will disappear. This is about 5 million, 4 million, 5 million barrels per day. >> Uh-huh. Yes, Yanbu has about 5 million barrels leaving from there. 5 million go south, right? They can all go out. If they go north, only 25 million can go out. >> 25 million per day. The rest can't go out anyway. >> Correct. >> They can't go. So even if they go north, they will have to wait in line to transfer oil. >> Correct, yes, yes. Uh. >> So, what are the chances of us seeing oil? >> The oil, I think it's scary. Uh, this, uh, the pipeline from the UAE that passes through and comes out at Fujairah, that's about 2 million barrels per day. >> At first, I thought it was fine. >> Uh. >> Because it bypasses the strait. But they forgot that Fujairah, you see, is [cough sound] >> In front of Iran's doorstep. >> Yes, it's nearby. >> And in the past, you see, Iran, whenever they wanted to put pressure, they would shoot. >> They send drones. >> To the port, [laughter]. >> No, no need to go. >> Ships don't dare to dock anymore. Uh, ships don't dare to dock anymore. >> So it's useless. Even if you have it, it's useless. >> Therefore, correct. Therefore, if Iran wants to squeeze oil prices up until both Trump and the global economy are in great distress, it's possible. This time, uh, [cough sound] it's possible. And there will be problems. That's why I think this is something we should be concerned about, because the problem will come to us. As a developing country, it's dangerous. >> Uh-huh, uh-huh. The people who will suffer the most are countries like Thailand, more than anything else. Because countries like us, yes, yes. >> America won't suffer. At most, it will be a little more expensive, and then after a while, they will ask for a ceasefire. Uh, like this, it will return to the original state. >> America, uh, uh, they produce more than they use. So, at this time, they produce, produce, and export, right? So, if they are really in trouble, they can stop exporting. But anyway, you see, at this time, the money market is reflecting this. All countries in Asia, if their currency weakens, it's because everyone knows that if oil prices rise and rise, the countries that can survive are the dollar, which is America, right? As for other countries, non-dollar countries, they are all struggling. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the DB Suan Thao channel so you don't miss interesting clips and watch new clips first. [Music]