Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you have the strength. Very happy to see you again for this breaking news video this Sunday, November 16, 2025, in front of a somewhat mixed but rather green crypto market. If we look at the performance of cryptos since the new candle of the day, we see that we have mostly green, very timid green, +1% on average, some are at +3 like Uniswap CP or Tao. Well, but if we look at the entire crypto market this morning, let's say it's rather in a green trend. The crypto market spent its weekend consolidating here like Bitcoin. Now, after a consolidation, there will be a strong volatile movement that will arrive. It can be upwards but be careful with these large sell orders here at 97700 that are waiting and at 105000. Buy orders will also support around 93700 dollars, 92000 also where there is a gap and some liquidity, knowing that the open interest has increased so there are quite a few positions that are open and the funding rates have increased since this weekend so it's rather long positions in "yeah the bottom is here to the moon" mode so that doesn't smell too much like good news when you look at it and moreover this morning the structure confirms it for us like every morning on the VIP Telegram channel. And then I'm sending you a video that shows that well, ultimately, whatever the structure of Bitcoin here, whether it's a contracting flat, I'm putting it here, a regular flat, a contracting flat or a bearish channel. Well, the three are rather unfortunately with a slightly higher probability of going to reach what is at the bottom. We wouldn't be surprised at all with the gap at 92000. We will talk about it tonight in the video in the late afternoon with the weekly analysis as well. Anyway, we will be, I will be live too from 9 PM to 10 PM like every Sunday evening. Don't hesitate to come. So the latest news, what are they? We have the CEO of Bitwise who tells us "The market is falling but the fundamentals are still good and it's the same old story, it's always the same, the market is correcting." Whereas for example, if I talk about Bitcoin, well it's not moving. The blockchain is the same. The validators are the same. I mean there is no change in fundamentals. And so the CEO here of Bitwise, an investment firm called Hunter Horsley tells us "Well, listen, for now, okay, there is a correction like we've already had plenty of corrections in bull markets. He even tells us that according to him, the 4-year cycles of bull market, bear market are over because the market is more mature, it has changed dynamics with the regulatory shift in the United States, the ETFs. He tells us Hunter, since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the new administration, he talks about Trump who is pro-crypto, that changes from Gary Gensler and Biden who were anti-crypto. We have entered a new market structure, new players, new dynamics, and new reasons why people buy and sell. He tells us "I think there's a good chance we've been in a bear market for almost 6 months and we're almost out of this bear market. The crypto situation has never been so favorable. It's certain that if you take the fundamentals, well, it's better than before 2024. The Bitcoin ETFs that came out in January 2024 opened a giant door to traditional finance and we had tens and tens and tens of billions of dollars, even more than 100 billion dollars, poured into the crypto market, well helped. So, it's certain that the markets are rather in a downward trend, like the stock market for now is not very pretty. I don't want to say it's a downward trend but it's correcting quite a bit. Well, these same players who buy the stock market or buy Bitcoin via the ETF from BlackRock and the other ETFs, well, if they sell stocks, they also sell ETFs. That's why this week we had outflows of a billion dollars from Bitcoin ETFs. It's the clients of the ETFs who are selling, they sell stocks, they also sell Bitcoin ETFs and so that means that investment firms, well, they sell Bitcoin if they sell, if their stocks are sold, you see. Well, we also have the founder of Coindex, Nick Bucrin, who says that okay, we are at a 25% drop, but it's a small correction compared to the previous cycle. We have the 2021 cycle already which was rather corrections of -30%. We even have the current cycle since we left 15000. We've had several corrections of -30% and remember the -30% corrections with consolidations or ranges that lasted 6 months between 6 and 9. Will we have the same thing? Will we have a correction? We are at -25%. Will we go down to -30% to reach below 90000 and spend 6 months or more consolidating? Well, that remains possible, clearly. We've already had that several times since we finished the bear market when Bitcoin was at 15000. So it can absolutely happen. We've done that three times, it's simple. On three occasions, Bitcoin has dropped -30%. We'll see that tonight in the video since the end of the bear market. And after these -30%, well, these -30% were achieved on channels that lasted at least 6 months between 6 and 9. We can do the same thing, -30% and get stuck with a bearish channel that lasts 6 months or more, you see. Well, we also have Robert Kiyosaki. He, as usual, says buy gold and Bitcoin. He says that currently markets are correcting, whether it's stocks or crypto, due to low liquidity. In short, it's simple. When governments, especially the American government, tighten their belts, meaning they raise interest rates. So, who says interest rate hikes means "Well, unfortunately, there are no more credits and quantitative tightening." So the Fed reduces its balance sheet, so it doesn't renew all the debts it buys. These are periods of low liquidity and that's not good for the markets. So there's no money being unlocked. On the other hand, periods of high liquidity mean interest rates are falling. When interest rates fall, credits are more easily opened and so well, money comes in with credits, with these interest rate cuts. There's also the Fed doing quantitative easing, which floods the markets with money. And then it's off to the moon. The problem is that with Jerome Powell and the US government shutdown, which even before the shutdown, we had not-so-good employment figures, inflation rising, and so now we haven't had figures for a month and a half and Powell said don't expect an interest rate cut for December and so the probabilities of an interest rate cut in December have dropped to 44%. So investors, you take away the most bullish catalyst, which is liquidity injection, by saying no, there will be no interest rate cut in December. Well, it's normal that, so what should we expect? We have to wait for liquidity to return. Will it return? Yes, there's a very good chance that liquidity will return. And here we have a rather interesting report from Wintermute. So, according to them, Bitcoin is following a familiar pattern. What is this pattern? It's Bitcoin being highly correlated to the Nasdaq but asymmetrically. What does that mean? It means for example, this week the Nasdaq fell by about 2%, Bitcoin fell by two or even three times more, and the Nasdaq rose on Friday and Bitcoin did not rise. So in short, it's been quite a few weeks where even if we take for example the gains since the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq for example has gained +20% and Bitcoin barely a small +3%. And so it's an, let's say, asymmetrical relationship, meaning when the Nasdaq, American tech stocks fall, Bitcoin falls even more, but when the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin has trouble rising, if you want. Well, and so it's a report that Jasper de Maer from Wintermute sent us and he tells us "This is not a breakdown in correlation but a reflection of asymmetry in the unequal way Bitcoin reacts to risk. When stocks rise, Bitcoin's rise is moderate, and when stocks fall, Bitcoin tends to fall even more." So he talks about performance asymmetry, a phenomenon he illustrated on this graph, you see, since 2021, the performance between the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 since 2021. And what's interesting is that we've fallen to levels not seen since the 2022 bear market. So that's rather optimistic. It means that in short, why do we have this? It's because well, Bitcoin is a bit shunned, lost popularity, we have liquidity problems via the ETFs. So that brings everything together. Is this bad news? Can we say that's it, it's over, nobody wants Bitcoin anymore, Bitcoin to zero? Well, of course not. So we are in a period where we have already seen it several times. It's a period where for now it's quite calm, investors are turning away from Bitcoin a bit. When I say investors, I don't mean all of them, it's a small part of course. And it's in these periods, these calm periods, that it's the best time to reload your little satoshis with strawberries, raspberries, and apples. That's what I do. And you have to wait for the storm and the calm to pass, and then it will take off again. It's as usual. And so he tells us Maer, "Historically, this type of negative asymmetry does not appear near tops but rather near bottoms." Well, clearly, well, we are closer to a bottom than a top. And when Bitcoin falls more sharply on days of bad performance than it rises on days of good performance, it generally signals exhaustion, not strength. So for him, we are near exhaustion of a bottom. And he tells us to finish that the gap between Bitcoin's performance and the Nasdaq's suggests that Bitcoin investors have been somewhat exhausted for some time. And that's good news. Periods where nothing happens, it's boring, it's dull, and well, those are the best periods to load up, and those are the periods of bottom creation, and some have understood this well, and it's not just anyone, it's Harvard. Yes, Harvard, which a few years ago said that Bitcoin was worthless, it was going to zero, you see, they must have fired the intern who did that. Why? Because the endowment fund of Harvard University, sorry, Harvard University, revealed a $443 million stake in BlackRock's iShares. And it's its largest stock position in the fund. So a few years ago Harvard was like, no, Bitcoin is crap, we don't want it. Now it's Harvard's largest stock position. Astonishing. And how do we know? Because well, they filed the form with the SEC, like big players, they are obliged to say what they do, you see. And so they showed that the fund held 6.88 million shares of iShares as of the third quarter of 2025, and that represents 20% of its declared holdings in publicly traded companies. So quite an impressive shift, quite an impressive U-turn. It's still Harvard. Theoretically, there are intelligent people there. So if Bitcoin represents their biggest weight in terms of stock purchases, then it's perhaps not for nothing, you see. Well, and so, apart from Harvard, they tend to favor real estate, direct investments. So it's still a good surprise to see that. Harvard is now among the top 20 holders of BlackRock Bitcoin shares. All good news. So, is it over, does everyone not care about Bitcoin, is everyone selling, is it going to zero, is it too bad? Ah no, it's as usual, a boring period where it corrects, it might even take its time, you see, really be boring, and then at the end of this boring period, what will happen? Boom! To the moon, as usual, quite simply, and it's the patient ones who will be rewarded. I'm talking about Bitcoin, okay, I'm not talking about altcoins, those exotic altcoins in their corner. We don't know what they're doing. Well, I'm talking about Bitcoin. So friends, this little news video. I hope you enjoyed it. I send kisses and we'll see you later for the analysis video. Bye bye. [Music]