Transcription
Hello everyone, I hope you had a good weekend. Well, so we're going to take a somewhat global look at Bitcoin, at a few altcoins, and we're also going to talk about psychology. We're going to take a rather particular look today. The objective is to review our position a little, where we currently stand on Bitcoin, and the stakes that are currently present. So, well, to spoil it for you a little, we are in a phase where we need to be very cautious for the simple and good reason that we are approaching major resistance. I remind you that we buy on support and sell on resistance, as always, the objective is when we have a price like this to buy low and sell high. So what do we do when it's like this? We buy when we have real supports forming, and we sell when we have resistances blocking us. So, the objective will be to look at all these indicators. I will be as pedagogical as possible to explain what leads me to my current thinking. I am starting to see signs of weakness, so I remain cautious. Currently, this does not yet allow me to completely change my bias and completely change my position, but I prefer to warn you because it could happen in the coming hours, in the coming days, etc. I could come back to you saying that I've decided to lighten the portfolio, and I will explain all of this in this video.
So, let's start right away. Bitcoin is currently at the level of $91,571. So we have come back to test the middle zone of the bullish imbalance that we had created on Monday and Tuesday of last week. We will look a little more closely at what's happening on the 2-hour timeframe. So here, one candle equals 2 hours of trading. And you see that we had a rectangle here. I'll draw it for you. This rectangle here, within which we had a large bearish imbalance at the time, on November 20th, Thursday, November 20th. Which had led me, precisely here at the end of Thursday, to buy back positions. I had explained why. Then, we had a new imbalance here, but this time bullish, then bearish, then bullish, and we finally came to work this zone and actually trade within this zone. So I remind you that you have the possibility on TradingView to have the indicator called Volume Profile. Okay? The principle of Volume Profile, instead of looking at volume as you have right here, that is to say, per trading candle, what is the volume executed? Volume is simply the quantity of orders executed. So, let me explain, if on this day here, I have a volume that you see here, a candle of, I don't know, $100 million, it's because I potentially had 100 million people who sold for $1. Okay? And so we will have a bearish imbalance here. And we have here, well. So if you have 100 million sellers here, then 15 minutes later 3 million buyers, then 5 minutes later 7 million sellers, 10 + 3 + 7 makes 20. You will have a candle with 20 million volume. Volume allows you to see if price movements are, in quotes, fake or not. Are they real or are they a bit manipulated? Okay. So you shouldn't see the crypto market as the epitome of manipulation. There is only manipulation, etc. I remind you that all markets are more or less manipulated in a directional sense. You have interests. Financial markets are zero-sum games in which many actors will intervene. You have long-term investors, you have retail investors, you have traders, you have people whose job it is to do arbitrage, meaning they will buy Bitcoin on Coinbase and sell it on Kraken, for example, to pocket the price difference. You will have people whose goal is to hedge other positions. For example, we will have people who will say, "Well, I'm buying the US market but selling Bitcoin," or "I'm buying Bitcoin but selling the US market to balance my position a bit." In short, you have a whole host of actors, which means that these actors all have different interests. The trader does not have the same interests as the long-term investor, who does not have the same interests as the one doing arbitrage. So, you shouldn't necessarily see manipulation as just something sneaky that big portfolios do to destroy the savings of small portfolios. What you should see is precisely a taking of interest. Your interest as a long-term investor is, and our interest as long-term investors is, to see the price of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies appreciate. We want the price to go up, we will very often position ourselves to buy. Our interest is upwards. So, we will try to position ourselves to support the rise. Okay? Conversely, you have other traders who will be more bearish, and their interest is for it to go down. You have market makers, their interest is to execute orders. Okay? Regardless of the direction, what they want is for orders to be executed. So their goal is to have something like this. You see this with absolutely nothing happening, absolutely no volume. You see the volume decreasing here. Well, it's the weekend, so it's logical, but if it were to last, it would be a nightmare for exchanges and market makers because they are only compensated when there are transactions. So their goal is to have a lot of volume, to create moments when people will intervene, investors, buyers, sellers, traders, arbitrageurs, whatever, but they want volume. So the interests of each are not the same. And therefore, you have to try to understand a little where everyone's interests lie to know where the market will go, because the market generally moves from zone of interest to zone of interest. If we have a lot of long-term investors who are currently in the markets, a lot of small portfolios, etc., who want to see the price of Bitcoin appreciate, who are buyers and who are in a logic of making profits, of becoming millionaires, of buying a Lamborghini, etc., then necessarily these people will have very specific interests, and therefore we can assume that they are people who will buy without necessarily looking at the selling timing, and therefore the price has a much higher chance of increasing sharply upwards. If we have more market makers and exchanges that are there, and retail traders are not there, and large investment funds are not there, etc., well, what will they do? They will create range phases. Okay? Because range phases are where we have the most, well, we have the most volume during trending phases, but range phases are where we will have the most traps. Okay? We will have, like here, you see, we have a small range, hop, a deviation, we go down, hop, we come back here, we create a small range again, we go higher, then we go lower. Here, we have a support level, we break the support level, hop, we go even lower, we break the support level. In short, each time, it's very, very tricky. Now, I can tell you that those who have the famous action bias, okay, who want, and this connects with what I was telling you, so the little point on psychology, at the moment, we have quite a few people who are in full action bias. That is to say, well, when you have lost, when you are trying to make money, doing nothing for you is a bit like passivity, it's associated with a lack of something. You need to position yourself, you need to watch the market, you need to try to find the right setup, etc., to absolutely make it back. So this also goes with a second bias, which is revenge trading. When you have lost a large sum, well, you know that in financial markets, and especially in banks, etc., big traders who make big positions, when they have to lose and lose a lot, they generally close their positions and stay out of the market for a while. This is when they will take vacations, they will turn off their computers, they will say, "Well, I've lost, I've lost too much, I need to disengage because otherwise, we are constantly telling ourselves, 'Okay, I lost 20 million, I absolutely have to make it back. Okay, how do I make back 20 million quickly?'" And this is really the worst, worst, worst decision to make. Okay? When you are in the markets, and you have lost a large sum, you must accept this loss, okay, and say, "Well, I had 50 million, I lost 20, I have 30 million left. With these 30 million, how do I position myself well with good risk management?" Okay? The goal is not to reach 50 million again as quickly as possible. Once I have reached my 50 million as I had at the start, then I can think again about what will happen, etc., and have a more reasonable approach. No, the reasonable approach must be amplified by the fact that we have lost a lot. Okay? And this is a very frequent bias, and currently, I can tell you that with the big market drop and the fact that many people have lost a lot of money and have a lot of unrealized losses on their portfolios, we have many people trying to catch up, and this is really very, very risky. So, it is rather necessary to slow down the positioning. I remind you, I invite you not to use leverage at all, okay, during this phase because we have a lot of tricky movements. So, you need to be cautious. You need to be cautious because obviously we are approaching a major zone of interest, which is this bearish trendline. So, I'm going back to what I said about my fair value gap here. So, I had large bearish, bullish, bearish, bullish imbalances, etc. And finally, we came to work this zone again. Okay? So, the very positive aspect is that we came to work this zone again. We came to take the liquidity that was here twice before moving back up. You see that the trend is rather healthy, it is rather bullish, so it's not bad. Now, we will have to be very cautious, okay? Because we still see that the price, the price action, is not very explosive upwards. You see that as soon as we make upward movements, they are quickly swallowed up. So, the advantage is that we are creating a kind of bullish trend in the sense that the lows are ascending and the highs are also ascending. So, obviously, in this phase, we assume that the next high will be higher than the previous one. And this is somewhat validated by the fact that, precisely, if I show you this like this, we came to recover just here, just here these levels. Okay, we came to recover this level. So, the price probably has an interest in recovering this level now. Okay. The level of the previous support was broken, then we reintegrated with some strength. So, we have a good probability of recovering this zone of $94,100. Why look at this liquidity? If we look at the last three days, you will see a bit of what I explained about range phases and tricky phases. You see that here, we had liquidity just below and just above the price. Here. So, these are the famous yellow lines. You see that we came to recover that, and then moved away. We came to liquidate the buyers here, liquidate the sellers here. And you see that currently, we still have short sellers positioning themselves here. So, this means that these are people who are betting on a decrease and who have an interest in the price going down, and these are traders. So, here we are on derivatives contracts, perpetual contracts. Okay? So, these are derivatives contracts. And these people have stop losses, and again, they have all their liquidity price located between $92,000 and $95,000. So, here you see that over the last three days, well, we simply created a range over the weekend. Hop, hop, we liquidate on one side then the other, and then we take a real trend starting Monday. If we look a little bit, or Sunday evening, I have most of the time, it's Sunday evening, French time, in any case. So, you see here, if we zoom out a bit on a week, but it's also the case if we zoom out even more, on 2 weeks, we see that we have the $94,000 level which is our major zone that is catching our eye. If we look at the last two weeks of trading, the most marked level is this one. It's the one from $94,000 to $96,000, which corresponds a bit to the zone that had pushed the price back, and I think we should be able to recover this price level, probably depending on whether it happens at the opening of the American stock market today, for example, during the session, or during tomorrow's session, or if we have to wait for the liquidity event that we are all waiting for, of course, which will happen on Wednesday at 8 PM regarding the Fed's decision on interest rates. Normally, given the probability forecasts, we have an 87.2% probability of a rate cut at Wednesday's meeting. So, we will have the rate cut. Otherwise, well, we would obviously have, well, the forecasts here are always correct, because these are people, well, the CME group, these are people who are really involved, who are not small traders, these are people who have relationships with the administration of the Federal Reserve. So, we will have a rate cut, that's what it means. What it also means is that we could have a liquidity event because the probability is not 98%. So, we'll see if this evolves during today and tomorrow, precisely before the announcement. Perhaps we will gradually approach 100% over the next two days, and in that case, we will probably have very little volatility. But it's possible that we will have a "sell the news" event. This is something that is increasingly becoming a probable scenario. So, here are the liquidations that we had, but I will show them to you, but you see that they are gradually decreasing. Okay. This is probably linked to the fact that people who had their short liquidations took profits or got liquidated. But you see that currently, well, if we zoom out a lot, the zone that we had between $96,000 and $98,000, well, it almost doesn't exist anymore. Okay? Here, we have a zone, you see, a bit thicker here, between $108,000 and $110,000. It's possible to reach them, but honestly, it's a scenario that I find less probable now. Okay. Because we see that we have little strength. Usually, bottoms are marked with a bit more volatility, a bit more strength. If you look a bit here, you see that we are currently in a configuration more like what we had here than what we had, for example, here with a lot of strength. You see when we had our low point, hop, we had real rebounds, and we quickly went back up towards the main resistances and especially maintained them. Okay? Here, we stayed quite high for a while, and that's not the case. Okay? Here, as soon as we make small rebounds, hop, we are sent back down. Okay? Each time, we are sent back down. And again, here, when I reloaded and when I told you it wasn't an optimal time to sell, it's because we were here, you see, hop, relative to our trendline, we were 18% below our major bearish trendline. Currently, we are almost glued to this trendline. Okay? So, the risk is much greater here than it is here. Paradoxically, because here we find, if I show you, at the funding level. Let's see if I can find it on the charts. Let's look together right here at the funding levels. So, at this level, funding rates, I remind you, reflect market sentiment on derivatives contracts. Are we more bullish or more bearish? You see that here we were quite bearish, we managed to maintain a rather negative sentiment in the markets for a while. And you see that here, for a few days now, since December 3rd, it's been 5 days that we've been reintroducing an upward trend with a more bullish market sentiment. Okay. And the problem is that this is generally not a very good sign. It shows that, well, this rebound is being taken as a trend reversal, a good time to buy back, etc. And, well, you know that for a while, that's what I thought, that the fact that we were currently at interesting levels to reposition ourselves and to start buying again, but the fact that everyone thinks that, well, it leads me to think, well, perhaps it's not the right time and that we are perhaps not ready. You see that the funding rates are still low enough compared to previous phases to say that we are not in a massive resurgence of euphoria and greed. Okay? We might be in something like this. You see here at the time in 2023, at the start of 2023, we were here at slightly positive funding rates for a while, then we just stayed horizontal for a long time before being able to recreate an upward trend. Okay. But well, it's still a bit risky, okay? Because each time, resurgences of euphoria during small rebounds, these can be things like this. You see right here, we had a resurgence of euphoria. You see here the funding rates in green were increasing. Hop. And then, we made a second bearish leg. Okay. So, a bit of caution nonetheless. We are looking a bit at the order flow, but you see here the funding rates are increasing. So, the open interest remains stable. This means that here, we mainly have sellers leaving their positions, okay? So, people who were betting on a decline and who had their price target lower, well, they are gradually saying, "Well, actually, I'm maybe losing a little bit, well, I'm getting out of the market, or I entered here, I'm in slight profit, at best I'm getting out of the market, I'm taking my small profits and I'm leaving." So, in fact, people who bet on a decline are leaving, and those who remain are more bullish. This is what we see here with the increase in funding rates here on stable open interest. What we also see is precisely here, the cumulative volume delta here, which is increasing on the derivatives side. So, this means that this movement is driven more by derivatives contracts. So, for a while, we managed to maintain an interesting price level while there was bearish pressure on the spot markets. So, it was probably a phase of absorption, for example, by large portfolios. But you see that currently, well, we still have a bit of strength, and especially we are returning to the levels we had here. So, potentially at this level, it will be more of a distribution zone, and therefore, it is very likely that the interest will be to recover the liquidity from the last two weeks, which is above $94,000. But it is very probable, if we do not manage to have enough strength for a real bullish impulse. Okay. If here at the $94,000 level, once we have overcome this resistance, we do not really move strongly upwards, okay? With a real bullish candle that could look like this. If we just have something like this, then we will have to be very cautious and probably lighten up. Okay? Probably even significantly lighten up. Okay? So, we will look at this together. I will give you another indicator, which is Ichimoku. For those who are not necessarily comfortable with this indicator, I remind you that there is a training section, in the technical analysis training section, we have a dedicated chapter. We have something interesting on the Ichimoku part. So, on Ichimoku, you have several curves. You have here the Tenkan, which is a bit the average price over the shortest period. Okay? You have the Kijun here, which is a bit clearer, and you have here the Kumo, this cloud, which is composed of two curves, the SSA and the SSB. Okay? You have something interesting here, which is that we broke just here. You see that we broke this curve. We crossed it and then we positioned ourselves above it. And since this break here, well, we have managed to stay above it. We had a small deviation just here, indeed, but you see that since then, well, we have recovered our price target, which was the Kijun, which we recovered here at the level of $94,000, and we went back down with this movement we had on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, we settled here around these price levels at the Tenkan level, but we wickered below without closing below. So, there is still some strength. Okay. And so, in Ichimoku theory, the objective when it's like this is rather to recover the Kijun and to recover this Kijun by potentially crossing it with just a wick. Okay? It's possible we'll have a wick and then do this. And in that case, well, as I told you, if we cross this resistance, if we cross this resistance which corresponds, so we have a confluence, so we have a confluence of zones. I'll show it to you again right here. There. We have the confluence here, which is the Kijun. We also have liquidations. We also have the bearish trendline. Well, if we reach $94,000 here, recover all of this, and there is weakness at these price levels, the price target unfortunately will be here. Okay? To recover these supports again, which are $80,500, and potentially go a bit lower. Where to go, I don't know, but I won't wait to find out to unload, okay? If I notice that I have weakness. Again, everything is a matter of probability. Indeed, we can do this, hop, and move away. Okay? It's probable, okay, to work this trendline here, once we have crossed it, to work this trendline downwards and to cross it again. But I prefer to lighten up here, even if it means re-entering a bit later. But again, when the sky darkens, that's when you have to protect yourself and get out your umbrella, to use the metaphor. Okay? So, here, we will have to be cautious. We still have an RSI that is quite well oriented. We have real bullish momentum, and that's positive. It shows that we still have a desire to go higher, but well, we will need to show strength in taking these levels. I think $94,000 honestly is something that is very probable to be reached in the coming days. Especially if we have a rate cut on Wednesday, well, maybe we'll do something like this. Hop. And then the famous "sell the news." And in that case, well, maybe we'll go lower. In any case, I think we can recover this price zone. And in that case, we will lighten up. So, I am currently 80% invested in altcoins and 20% in stablecoins. And well, potentially, I will lighten up to 50/50 or 60/40 with 60% stablecoins, for example. This is something that is totally conceivable. If we look a bit at our other indicators regarding Bitcoin ETFs, you see that well, we still have nothing, we don't have a trend. Now, we shouldn't give it too much importance. regarding outflows of $32 million or outflows of $113 million, and in the same way, we give little importance to inflows of $42 million and inflows of $120 million. What you need to understand is that people who are buying ETFs for now are absent. Okay? For now, no major accumulation zone. Same for Ethereum. So, well.
So, Solana, anyway, for the moment, there's not much, but anyway, what this shows us is that at the institutional level and especially at the traditional finance level, there's not much to go on. If we look at the positive side, I told you, we needed to be cautious about this indicator, the WH SOPR, which corresponds to profit-taking by very large portfolios, whales. You see that currently, we have an indicator that has deflated a bit. This is positive. It shows that precisely, we don't have major overselling and major profit-taking by whale portfolios. So, there's a bit of room to go higher. This indicator doesn't necessarily indicate a overheating phase. Here, on the accumulation heatmap, we had small colors that indicated small distribution phases. So, again, caution. It's not necessarily the most alarming signal for me, but it's a signal that I take into account, and which could, again, in conjunction with everything else, if this indicator doesn't tell me, "attention, it's time to reposition," okay? I don't have anything like what I had here, big red dots showing a major accumulation phase, okay, like we had here, here, or for example, yes, during this whole phase here, here, also here, you see, or here, these are generally very interesting phases to position oneself to buy. In the same way, well, these can be interesting zones. You see here, we had detected distribution here as well. But well, you have to be cautious because, for example, right here, you see, we had major distribution here during the FTX crash, and yet it was our bottom. So, well, during trending phases, you still have to be cautious, okay? But for counter-trends, it's rather interesting. So, here, at the P cycle top indicator level, we still have our yellow curve, well, which is above us at the level of $107,000. Well, there are quite a few indicators that talk about this $107,000 zone. Potentially, therefore, if we reach it, it would be a good signal. But honestly, seeing a price that struggles to rise, and on rebounds, we don't have real accumulation. That's mainly it, because when we were here, hop, I'll show you again. When we were right here, at that moment, hop, sorry, let's take this again. In April, when we had this rise, here we had volume, here we had accumulation, and large portfolios were positioning themselves. Currently, that's unfortunately not the case. So, again, caution. Let's just look at the spot average order size. Are there precisely large whales positioning themselves right now? I haven't looked at this indicator for a while. No, here we have more retail movements. So, we'll see if we have what we had. That is to say, a first rebound, a second bearish leg, and then before creating a bullish trend again. Honestly, it's possible. I remain very cautious. What you should know is that we were talking about having absolutely no demand from traditional finance, but we also have absolutely none from retail. Always look at the YouTube videos of the main crypto influencers. Also look at Google searches for the term "crypto." If I also type "buy crypto," it's the same. Okay? We have absolutely no searches. Okay? We are very, very low. So, necessarily, the fact of having no buyers in traditional finance, none from retail, seeing that we just had here, hop, no large whales positioning themselves. If we look here at the on-chain part, I'll show you again. We have absolutely no signals of accumulation from large whales. Now, we haven't had the update yet from CryptoQuant on these curves regarding this large imbalance related to the token migration from Coinbase. You see that it's flat. Since then, we had a slight recovery. We could have expected a bullish behavior. Unfortunately, you see that's not really the case. It's not really the case. Hop, if I zoom in a bit to try to look at this on a larger behavior, you see, hop, we are still very flat. So, there's no real recovery. And here, the portfolios in red, which are rather poorly oriented, I admit it, I admit it willingly. But you see that here, they continue their bearish pressure. There is no follow-through. There is no follow-through, and that's a problem. That's a problem. It will block us if we want a real bullish trend. Well, we need at least one of the three actors to be present. Either the whales in crypto, so the OG's, the whales, call them what you want, who are capable of recreating bullish movements based on all the money and liquidity they have. Well, we would have wanted to see at least buying behavior here, or from traditional finance, or from retail. The fact that we have none on the rebound, well, it's dangerous again. I remind you that currently, I am much more cautious now than I was here. Again, here we had very significant bearish excesses. We had absolutely no rebound. We had a lot of liquidity from sellers that we had never recovered. We were 18% below the trendline. We had momentum that was oversold and starting to...
A little bit showing signs of very, very significant oversold conditions. Well, obviously, one could say the rebound is obvious. Okay? To what height, to what extent, of what importance will this rebound be? From what point will it start? Will we have to go look for 73,000 to rebound, or will we have to look for 50,000 before rebounding, or will we rebound immediately? That, we couldn't know. But the probability of a rebound was all the more accentuated because all the oversold indicators were there. Now, the oversold indicators are no longer there. Okay? We are not at all in an oversold phase. We have a momentum that is bullish. We are currently under a resistance which is our famous trendline. We have the resistance of the Kijun on Ichimoku. We have liquidations that are just above, but then we don't really have other liquidations apart from these ones which are really present. And if we zoom out really far, you see that after this liquidation, the one that remains for us is below, it's here at the level of 74,000. Will we have to go look for it? Honestly, for the moment, it's really a coin toss. So for me, there's no point in doing a coin toss and telling you, yes, I think we're going to recover it. But you see that after this liquidation in the short term, well, otherwise it's this one, it's this one between, well, here the 74,000 and here the 69,000 dollars. Uh, so once again, caution, caution, caution. We still have all the indicators we had at the altcoin level that show us that we had a lot of fear. So that, certainly, is something that motivates the fact that we could have an upward movement. And that's why if I sell, I won't sell 100% of my portfolio, I'll keep some cryptos, I'll keep some altcoins because there are always cryptos that are well-oriented. We'll take a quick look at the altcoins, but we did a look at the end of last week and we still have our selected altcoins that are rather well-oriented. Okay? So we'll have to keep, keep some crypto because, well, the rebound is probable, and especially since we are in major oversold zones for altcoins. If I show you the T-ratio channel again, it seems to indicate that we have indeed reached, we would have reached an interesting low point for Bitcoin, cryptos, etc., because, well, you see here the fact that we had a strong downward trend here for months, since May, we've had an outflow of capital, meaning less and less monetary printing, fewer and fewer people buying cryptos, and more and more people taking refuge in stablecoins. Okay, that's what we see with stablecoins, the USDT dominance, you see that it has risen strongly since August, okay? We have strongly increased the share of stablecoins in the crypto ecosystem. So that means that people are selling to protect themselves and are keeping stablecoins rather than positioning themselves in cryptos in general, Bitcoin, altcoins, etc. Uh, and if we look a little at monetary printing, it had slowed down a bit for a while. Okay? Since October, we had really slowed down. Now, we have small signals that show that we could have a small acceleration, a small re-printing of cash. So that's good. That's what makes this indicator seem to point to a reversal. In the past, this has always been a very, very good sign. Well, we'll have to watch that. In any case, for the moment, we have the fuel to go higher. We potentially have the fuel to make a real rebound, but currently, we have a bit of fragility, and so we'll have to be vigilant. If I'm talking about it, despite the fact that I'm currently staying invested at 80%, it's precisely so that you prepare yourselves, and also those who are a little less, a little less risk-friendly, okay? Those who like risk a little less and who want to protect themselves a little more, well, perhaps it's time to lighten up a bit, okay? Even if it's not much, protect yourself a little on the cryptos that you feel are the most fragile. Once again, we keep our winners and we cut our losers. Okay? The ones that win the most. And if we take a quick look at the altcoins, you see that TRX, for example, has a great trend, we'll tend to keep it rather than, for example, Hyper Liquid, which is quite fragile. You see that we are back on support. It's a crypto that I suspect and that I will probably lighten up on. Okay. So I'm waiting to see what happens with Bitcoin. If I reach 94,000 and I lighten up, I'll keep TRX rather than completely exiting Hyperliquid. Okay? Solana is rather interesting. BNB as well, you see that we really have strength on BNB. Tao, on the other hand, well, you see that we're stagnating a bit on the supports. We're coming back to work the trendline. Potentially, it's a crypto that I will lighten up on a bit. Okay. It has a nice trend in terms of momentum. It had a bit of strength here on the rebound today. We'll see, but potentially it could be a zone, a zone to potentially exit, okay, or at least partially exit. Uh, Moro also a bit of weakness. We're arriving at interesting support levels, here. The support level of 109 that I'm waiting for to potentially reload, but it's not a crypto that I will reload. On the other hand, SPX, you see that it had recovered well here its bottom at 42 cents. We had a strong recovery. We are working this support zone again, and despite the small bearish attacks we may have had on Bitcoin, well, you see here, it's holding the support levels well and it's crushing volatility. So it's very likely that we'll go higher. So it's a crypto that I will keep. Nexo as well, Virtual as well here, despite a bit of weakness for a while, we are holding here this famous rectangle which corresponded to the order block. Okay, which corresponds to the zone we worked for a few days before having this big bullish impulse. So here, there are certainly big, big portfolios that created this bullish movement. So seeing strength again at these levels is interesting. It's perhaps a crypto that I will keep. Doge as well, which is stabilizing. Well, on the other hand, even it's starting to show a bit of weakness, potentially. Here, if I lighten up on Bitcoin, I might lighten up on this crypto as well. Uh, Harry Potter, Sonic Obama, 10 Inu, honestly, it's more of a believer. So it's a crypto on which I don't necessarily have a big position, so I might keep it, but it's a crypto that is still a bit weak. So that's it for the altcoin part. But anyway, if I explain to you that I have weakness, that I observe weakness on Bitcoin and globally on the crypto market, it doesn't mean that I think we are in a bear market. Once again, all those who talk to you about a bear market, etc., a bear market is a realization of the past. Okay? On the daily, that was a bear market. Okay. On the daily, because simply, a bear market just means a bearish market. A bearish market just means that we are chaining lower lows and lower highs. Okay? If you look, obviously, on the monthly, okay, one candle equals one month, currently, well, we are still largely in a bullish trend, okay? Higher lows, okay? And higher highs. So for the coming months, the most probable trend is to have a rebound. Okay? For the coming months. For the coming weeks, well, we'll have to do the exercise as well. For the coming weeks. The trend is rather to have here, well, rebounds as well. Okay? You see that we are rather on a similar bullish trend. So again, the problem is that if you wait for the monthly to reposition yourself or the weekly to exit, saying "Okay, I have my confirmation that I need to exit," unfortunately, it's much, much too late. Okay? So it doesn't mean if I exit at 95,000 that I think we're in a bear market, and it doesn't mean that I won't reposition myself almost immediately. If we reach 80,000, well, maybe that's when I'll buy back. But I prefer to protect myself from a drop of 15%, 17% on altcoins on Bitcoin, which could lead to a drop of 25% on altcoins, for example. Okay. That's it. Bitcoin Dominance, we still have signals that show that we have consolidation. Bitcoin is regaining a bit of strength. It's performing almost as well as altcoins since the end of November. For the last two weeks, you see that we are in a range here, hop, between here and there, approximately. So that shows that, well, Bitcoin is performing rather well, and that it might be precisely a moment where, well, either we'll have a correction, altcoins will suffer more than Bitcoin, which will do this, and therefore we should have a dominance that will rise. Okay? That's entirely possible. Or it's a moment precisely in which we will have a bullish recovery, and we might have Bitcoin performing a little better than altcoins, and therefore a dominance that could just rebound slightly. Okay? We don't seem to have a real directionality in the sense that, well, we don't have a structure here that tells us, attention, we are at a pivotal moment where we have a real bullish reversal, okay, like we could have had here, real strength, real impulse, etc., which told us that Bitcoin is performing much better than altcoins, that's not the case yet, okay, but the real bearish trend we could have had here, or the beginning we could have had here, for the moment it's slowing down. So, so once again, a bit of caution regarding Bitcoin dominance, you see that we have indeed, we have indeed reduced it. So that means that, well, once again, you have to choose your altcoins well. Uh, not all altcoins are relevant. So you have to be obviously cautious with your choice of altcoins. And unfortunately, well, we're returning to this major support level right here. Okay? Just, hop, right here. Uh, here, here, which we are currently working on again. So if there's no rebound here, unfortunately, well, it shows us that, well, altcoins still have a bit of weakness, and therefore, with the rise of this USDT dominance, well, we have people who are lightening up their altcoins rather than lightening up their Bitcoin, which is quite reasonable, uh, since obviously, well, these are cryptos that, well, altcoins are necessarily riskier cryptos. So, well, when you want to reduce risk, well, you have to lighten up the riskiest positions. That's perfectly normal. Okay, so that's a bit for the overview. We'll just go over two or three more indicators that I wanted to show you on the fundings. I showed them to you here at the Coinbase Premium level. So I remind you that here is the price difference between the price of a Bitcoin on Coinbase and the price difference on the price of a Bitcoin on Binance, for example, or on other exchanges that are a bit less mainstream, even if Binance is quite mainstream. Coinbase shows precisely the trend of euphoria of small portfolios versus the fear of small portfolios. Here we were very, very strongly in the negative. This showed that people were ready to sell their Bitcoin at any price, even if the prices were cheaper on Coinbase than elsewhere. And conversely, here you see that, well, on Coinbase, people are buying back, and small portfolios are buying back, saying, "That's it, it's going up, it's going to go back to ATH, etc." And that, once again, well, attention, caution, caution. Okay. Uh, that's what I wanted to, what I wanted to cover as well. Yes, regarding the macro. Well, inflation remains flat, there's no issue there. Regarding economic news, we'll have the report on job openings in October for the month of October. We'll have it on Tuesday, tomorrow at 4 PM. It will be the last major news we're waiting for to have firm and definitive confirmation of the probability of a rate cut. Well, the fact that we have an 87.2% probability shows us that we will very, very certainly have a rate cut. Knowing that these are reports on new job openings, since we have the figures for weekly unemployment claims, we have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get. So, so there won't be a real surprise regarding ETFs. Here, this curve. So it shows us that we talked about it, but we don't have a trend resumption. The positive side is that at the level of long-term holders, it seems we have a bit of fatigue, in any case, a halt in selling. Okay? When I say a halt in selling, it's mainly a decrease in the selling rate. You see that we are still in red histograms, which shows that we still have selling from long-term holders, people who have held Bitcoin for more than 6 months. They are still selling, okay? But they are selling less compared to what they were doing a few days and weeks ago. So that's positive. We also have here at the net position on exchanges, we still have Bitcoins leaving exchanges. Once again, it's the same thing, when Bitcoins leave exchanges, it's to be held. So the downward pressure tends to be reduced. So that's positive. It's not yet a real trend resumption like we could have had here, here, here, etc., where we really have big phases where Bitcoins are leaving exchanges, showing that there is a real desire to hoard. That's not the case yet. Okay? Regarding the put-call ratio. This, once again, accentuates the fact that we have a probability of a more powerful rebound, okay, which could take us a bit higher because precisely here at the put-call ratio level, we are very low. Okay? This put ratio is very low. We are at the level of 0.5, which shows us that we have a higher probability in terms of options of having a rebound in the coming weeks or days. Okay? Regarding whales, however, here, so we still have interesting things. So here at Glassnode, we have precisely the number of portfolios holding more than 10,000 Bitcoins which is increasing. You see this curve which had decreased for a long time, in fact, since the entire bull run. we constantly had portfolios that were selling, and so here we had fewer and fewer portfolios weighing more than 10,000 Bitcoins because, of course, they were taking profits on the rise, and currently they are re-accumulating. Is it like what they did here, okay? At that moment, just on the eve of the bear market when they started to reposition themselves, and in fact, it marked precisely the beginning of our bearish trend with all the small portfolios selling and only portfolios weighing more than 10,000 Bitcoins starting to re-accumulate little by little. Is it like the announcement from Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, who tells us that it's a moment when, given the discount on Bitcoin in recent days, we have big, big players and governments, sovereign funds, etc., who are accumulating Bitcoin in Baku. That's entirely possible. Okay. In any case, what we see is that we have precisely a recovery. So, it's positive, no matter what, to have a recovery, it shows that we have buying pressure, even if it's not huge, we have buying pressure. Unfortunately, well, you see that it's happening in a context where here the portfolios that are more than 1000 Bitcoins tend to be fewer and fewer. You see here, it's been decreasing since this rebound, it's decreasing, and unfortunately, if we look a bit at what happened precisely before, when we had drops, well, it was precisely moments when we were selling before deeper drops. This was the case here. This was the case here as well. Here too. Here too, it was precisely at that moment when we had, so we were talking about it just here, hop, I'll show you. Here during the 2022 bear market, we had an increase here and here in the number of positions taken and the number of portfolios of more than 10,000 Bitcoins. And in parallel, we had a decrease in portfolios of more than 1000 Bitcoins. A bit like the configuration we have currently, and it was precisely the eve of our bear market. So once again, caution, okay? Each indicator cannot be taken individually. What's needed is to create a bias from all of this. So I imagine you understand, given everything we've said. So these are portfolios of 100 to 1000 Bitcoins. Uh, well, there's not much to say. Here I was looking a bit at the altcoin part, but there's nothing more to say than what we already said last week. So, with everything we've seen, we can say one thing. I imagine you have more or less the same reading as me. That is, well, we're entering cautious zones, we're almost at 92,000. That's it, we're at 92,000, there's strength, we'll very probably go for 94,000. But here, caution, caution, caution. Okay. Once again, it's when the weather is nice that we repair our roof. So we must obviously wait for rebound phases to lighten up. But it's obviously during rebound phases that we should lighten up. Okay? We won't ask the question when we have a reversal, when we're at -10% compared to 94,000. Uh, if we have this and this, okay? It's not then that we'll say, should we lighten up? Okay, it has to be done here. And here, these are rather moments where we ask ourselves, should we reload or should we wait to reload? Okay? So that's my role. My role is precisely to act rationally and coolly in the market. And so that's what I try to do as much as possible. On the psychology part. I'll just add a little note because many of you are quite tired, okay, of all these movements, of this downward pressure we've had for a long time. What you need to understand, I've talked about it a bit, is that you are subject to numerous biases. Those who have lost are subject to this famous revenge trading bias where you absolutely try to make up for it at all costs. You need to be very careful, very, very, very careful with that because it can lead you to lose your entire capital. Okay? So be very careful about that. There's a lot of fatigue. Many of you are in this situation. Be wary when you see people promising to help you catch up quickly, etc. In these phases, what's needed is to keep a cool head. Many of you are in this situation. When you see statistics showing that 95% of the supply is at a loss, it means that all your friends and colleagues who are in crypto, and whom you don't know but who are in the world and have crypto portfolios, they are also at a loss. Okay? It's not just you, it's not just you who are at a loss. Others are too, and they are also in very uncomfortable psychological positions. But unfortunately, well, you have to accept it. You have to accept what you may have lost in the past. And to rebuild a bullish portfolio, you must not increase risk but rather reduce it a bit. Okay? We reduce, Rome wasn't built in a day. Your portfolio neither, your gains neither. So you have to go gradually. You will find phases of gain precisely if we buy here, sell here, if we manage to buy back a bit lower, sell a bit higher, etc., all these phases will allow you to gain a little profit each time, a little more capital which will allow you to find winning positions and regain some serenity. Okay? But serenity won't be found in "That's it, great, I made the trade that will make me whole again. I've regained all my losses." But -50% -60% to have -50% loss or -60% currently is far from exceptional, far from it. Okay? There are many portfolios of people who have been here for a long time and who have managed to surf the entire Bitcoin rise since 2023, since 2022, etc., who have surfed this entire wave and are still at a loss. Okay? Still at a loss because, well, it was a very difficult bull run, okay, and the bullish expansions only served to gain a little short-term profit, and then we were completely reversed, all the profits were wiped out, etc., and unfortunately, well, you have many cryptos that are lower than they were in 2024, 2025, etc. Despite the fact that Bitcoin is still relatively high, keep a cool head. We'll do this. We'll get through this period together, and anyway, there are big, big prospects for the weeks, months, and years to come. There are really a lot of great things to do in crypto. You have a lot of volatility, but it's in both directions. So you have to keep a cool head, maintain a rational structure, and anyway, you'll see that you'll manage to regenerate profit. You have to be patient, you also have to know when to cut. Uh, just keep a minimum of information. That's why I try to synthesize everything for you as much as possible, and once you have this synthesized information, you disconnect and let time play with you. Okay, thank you, I wish you a good week, and anyway, we'll stay in touch for what's next. Okay. Thank you. M.