Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market. We will talk about BTC in the first instance with a lot of volatility that I think will arrive tomorrow evening. So, we will prepare for that. Then, we will talk about Ether. We will look at some altcoins, notably some very strong altcoins that are pumping. Today, we have Tao, Ada, some altcoins that stand out, and we will talk about the US market here. Before I begin, two things. From now on, do not hesitate to tell me in the comments which altcoins you want me to analyze in the next videos. Do you have a favorite altcoin or one you wish to enter into, or whatever, put them in the comments because I don't have many left in stock. And second thing, for those who haven't joined yet, do not hesitate to join the private group here on Discord. A group that now has over 2000 members, we talk about trading, investment, crypto. Many topics are discussed. There you have a lot of information, you are kept informed directly as soon as a video is released. You have here a channel, one day, one piece of advice for 365 days. So for 1 year, I provided one piece of advice per day. You have a lot of value here. You have crypto news that drops in real-time, news here on the economy that drops directly in real-time. Also, a lot of information. So it's free, you just have to click on the first link in the description.
Now, I will continue here on BTC. We are still in this big phase of sideways movement, still blocked here between two levels. We had this phase on Saturday and Sunday of sideways movement with a liquidity grab directly pumping to reach the upper extremity, $92,000, and we have a rejection for the moment, still in this compression phase. We can see this with higher lows. Here we can see some highs, a sort of compression. I'm not too into drawing this type of pattern. Personally, I only draw support and resistance levels. That's more than enough to take positions, and we're trying to push. Now, we are quite close to the upper extremity. It's not the best zone here to look for shorts. Why? Because each time we have been rejected. There, we see it clearly. Maybe this time we will break through. What is certain is that a resistance zone is not shorted. There is no world where you long a resistance zone. It's because if you do that, first, you enter at a level where generally people enter, but as a short-seller, as a seller, and especially you don't have an interesting risk-reward. And if you want to have a good R, it requires you to have a very tight stop loss or a TP that is quite far away, which requires you to break other resistance zones. So, every professional trader and investor looks for longs at a support level and shorts at a resistance level. Now, the market seems to be pushing. For me, if we start to break through $94,000, this zone, we will have a high chance of establishing a bottom, and a medium-term bottom will be established, and we can then attack the next two zones, $99,000 and $106,000. In any case, it wouldn't surprise me to see here, if we really manage to have a weekly close above this level, to have a small bullish rally to reach the next levels. Why? Well, it's a level that has been quite important in recent weeks. We came here with this rise to grab liquidity as we saw together. This high was interesting to watch in confluence with the 4-hour tunnel. We rejected perfectly within it. Typically, here, we have no reason to come back and test this high. For me, the top is marked. So if we really go to test it, it's not to make a deviation, a re-entry, it's really to establish a bottom and experience a bullish rally. Now, we don't anticipate this, we can't know if it will happen. We simply react to what the market will show us.
Afterwards, in the long term, my bias doesn't change. Yes, we have come back to test the first levels to position ourselves on BTC. For example, people who do DCA, I often talk about optimized DCA, intelligent DCA, it's much more relevant to position yourself here after a -35% drop than at $120,000. Now, I know, some people don't bother, they do DCA, dollar cost averaging. This means that generally, it's once a month, every month, or once a week, they will put in a fixed amount. So the person will either put in $50 per week or $200 per month. Well, that depends on each person's means, their income. So that will be per week or that will be per month. The problem is that by functioning this way, it causes a permanent immobilization of capital and especially entries that can be unprofessional. If you enter here, if you enter here, if you enter here, these are not very good entries. And what I generally recommend is why not have a DCA, but an optimized DCA. That is to say, instead of saying, "Hey, I'm putting in $200, and I'll put in $100 or $150, and on the side, I'll keep $50, and I'll accumulate these $50 in USDT, in stablecoins." After several months, I will have $200, $300, $400. And when there is a strong retracement of -30%, generally on Bitcoin, that's a good figure, from -30% we can start to re-expose ourselves, and then I will enter my optimized DCA, which allows me to already have stablecoins on hand in case of a drop, and especially to have much more professional entries. Okay? That's how I recommend it because, well, I already start from the principle that if you watch my videos every day, it's a shame to do a DCA. Yes, I know if you have. Yes, it's interesting. The person who tells me, "I don't have 30 minutes to dedicate to the market per day, I don't have 2 hours to dedicate to the market per week." Okay, then do a DCA, don't worry about it. However, if you watch my videos every day, I think you have some basics in technical analysis. You have some skills that the average person doing DCA won't have. The goal is that you don't waste your time. Watching my videos is to do a DCA, you can have a small part of DCA within your strategy. If you then trade, you look to enter at support levels, and so on. But yes, if you have a little technical background, do a DCA, yes, but try to still have these skills that will be useful to you and will allow you to have very good entries. In any case, on Bitcoin, my long-term bias hasn't changed. I am rather bearish. I could become bullish again only if, as I told you, we structure a weekly here or if we re-enter $106,000. Okay? I repositioned myself once at $86,000 on BTC, and I have two zones that I monitor in case of a continuation of our decline. We could very well have a rebound here for a continuation of this bearish trend. In any case, I enter in three tranches on BTC. This zone, this zone, and this zone. I already have a first level that has been executed. Now, it's a small amount compared to these zones. Will we reach and test these zones? I have no idea. I don't anticipate it. In any case, I am ready in case we go there. Now, it's normal that after this kind of drop, we don't go down in a straight line. You see, we have a drop here, a retracement for a second drop. We can have a drop, a retracement for a second drop. It's possible, even for a third, we don't know, but the market won't go down in a straight line. Of course, if tomorrow we have really bad news, we could have a strong dump. Now, the market is anticipating, over the last few hours, the last 24 hours, an 87% chance of a rate cut. It varies, sometimes it's 86, 88. Well, we'll see, in any case, tomorrow, we will potentially have a higher probability of a rate cut, and we could have a risk premium of 12%, which could be bullish for the market. However, be careful with very short-term volatility.
Now, let's move on to the very short term. Hop, we see that we have leaned here on the weekly pivot point. That's a very good level. As every week, we identify these levels, and it's not for nothing. If we go back to test this level, $94,000, we will have to watch how the market reacts. If we have another liquidity grab, for me, it's unlikely since we already had one here. However, it can happen. Look at BTC in 2022. At this level, it's a weak breakout followed by a liquidity grab at this level. There. Followed by a second at this level to make a third and a fourth. Well, the market is not an exact science. Okay? It's not because technically it's very rare that we have several liquidity grabs in the same direction. Generally, we will see one to reach the other side. However, if the market wants to do this, it can, it can, it's just very unlikely. So we are still watching the $94,000 level. To see how the market will behave. It's a resistance level, so I will not be looking for longs. On the other hand, if we start to break it, accept a pullback, it could be a good zone here to look for longs because we will have flipped this resistance zone into support to target the next levels. And here, in the very short term, for the day, we had this sideways phase followed by a pump with the opening of the US market at 3:30 PM. So, we have the Wall Street session here, which is rather bullish, and we are at this level on this daily pivot point in confluence with this resistance level. Similarly, on intraday, it's not the best place to position yourself. In any case, I don't have any specific setups triggering. Why? Because I mainly trade the trend. And when I have a 1-hour tunnel, a 15-minute tunnel that is rather flat, I don't really have any setups, no setups are triggering. After, I can have automatic setups that can trigger, like for example, BTC here. I could have had a setup, but I wasn't in front of the screens, but that's automatic setups, it's different from this type of discretionary trading as I like to call it. But right now, I'm doing nothing because I have moving averages that are flat. There's a lack of momentum, and as I said, it doesn't surprise me to have low volatility with the Fed meeting tomorrow.
I'm moving on to Ether, which is pushing a bit more than BTC. We saw that. Which means it wouldn't surprise me if Ether is stronger than it in the coming days. We already have a W structure that is much more interesting than on BTC. Here, we haven't gone back below this level. You remember, that was a bit of our invalidation of this W. As I explain quite often, when you have a structure like this, there are two ways to invalidate it. Either you have an aggressive invalidation. In that case, you will validate either when you have a re-entry of the neckline, or when you have a re-entry of the impulsive candle that broke us. I prefer the impulsive candle because often, we can slightly re-test the neckline and move on. Which is the case here. But we see that here, our impulsive candle that broke our neckline, our neckline which is here, hop, and we haven't closed below it. So for me, this W is still validated. And the second, less aggressive invalidation, is simply to have a stop loss below the lowest point of the W. The advantage is that you have a higher success rate because there's less chance of triggering it. However, you have a lower risk-reward. Let's take an example. You enter here at the time of the pullback on the neckline, stop loss below the lowest point. Okay, here TP. Let's assume you target this resistance zone, you have a 1.5% reward. However, I have a stop loss below my impulsive candle on closing. When I have long-term patterns, I operate on closing, not on wicks. The profit because here, well, I would have triggered my stop loss. I have a 5.8 reward for one. You see, it's not the same. So here, I might have a slightly lower success rate because there's a higher chance of triggering this stop loss than this stop loss, but I have a higher risk-reward. That's up to you to decide based on your profile, based on your strategy. Everything must be back-tested. You must have statistics that show you that this setup works. In any case, on Ether, we are inside our 4-hour tunnel. We are coming out from the top, let's see if we manage to settle above it. Okay. And then, we saw, I didn't draw it, but we have this resistance zone around $3400 approximately. Psychological number, daily tunnel that aligns, pressing zone here of confluence. There, we see that we have a very good level around $3400. So for me, if we start to settle above this high, there's a high chance of pushing and reaching this $3400 zone. If we manage to re-enter it, the objective is the next zone, $3008. We have this whole big block around $4000. In any case, Ether seems to be pushing against BTC. It's not surprising since it came back to test a very good zone here. Hop, our elite tunnels. We see that it was consolidating perfectly within them. For me, the ETH BTC pair is still in an uptrend. We had here a long bearish phase. Okay, clearly ugly, where Ether was outperformed by BTC. And recently, we see that we have established a bottom structure here in a W, higher lows, break of our dynamic inversion. We also put here the daily tunnel. We had a downward oriented tunnel for a long time. We have moved back above it, and now it's supposed to act as support, and for the moment, it is acting as support. We see perfectly here this W structure on Ether, which indicates a signal to me. I am ready to outperform BTC. Now, outperforming BTC doesn't necessarily mean Ether will perform against the dollar. If tomorrow BTC loses 10%, Ether can lose 5% and still outperform BTC. That's something to consider. Here, we are talking about outperformance compared to another asset than the dollar. In this case, Bitcoin, BTC, and Ether.
We will quickly talk about the US market. Here, we are still consolidating not far from the current ATH, at a resistance level. I haven't changed my mind, let's say, on the S&P 500. As long as we are above this level, it's generally bullish. We could even lower this polarity a bit at this level. For me, as long as we are above here, I will rather look for longs. Okay? I will rather look to be bullish if we are below. Okay, with settling below and closing below, well, I will rather have a bearish bias. Here, I'm talking really for someone who does intraday or swing trading. For the moment, there's no reason to be bearish on the S&P 500. We have moving averages oriented upwards. The 15-minute is above the 1-hour. We see clearly that the 15-minute acted as support. Tac tac tac tac tac. Okay, we lose the 15-minute. What's most likely? To test the 1-hour, and that's often the case. Then, we have a compression between the 15-minute and the 1-hour, let's see the resolution. If we break the 15-minute, we will have a high chance of making a new high. If, on the other hand, we lose the 1-hour, we will have a high chance of testing the 4-hour here, which is in confluence with this zone. Similarly, it could be a last level to hold where we can potentially take longs, and if we lose this level, well, for me, I would be bearish until we come back to test this zone, or here it could also be a good localization zone to look for longs. However, if we lose this level, validation of a weekly top structure. Okay, with here the high, the low, the high lower than the previous one, validation of an M-top, a long-term reversal structure similar to what we did here. And then, we could enter a bearish trend for a few months, 1 year, 2 years on the S&P 500. Potentially experience a retracement of -20%, -25%, it's entirely possible. You always have to zoom out and say, where are we coming from? It's normal to have correction phases.
Regarding altcoins. Globally, at the beginning of this week, two cryptocurrencies are standing out a bit. Tao, Ada. So, we will analyze them. You know I like to pick the strongest altcoins to continue the trend. However, be careful, it's not because Ada is the strongest in the last two days that the structure is interesting. That's why we look at the chart here and we observe, first, a weekly analysis, we lost a major level. This zone around 50 cents, between 50 and 55 cents. We have a reversal structure here. The chart is ugly. Yes, we have come back to test this accumulation zone. Okay, W structure, we lost a level. So it wouldn't surprise me to range between these two bounds, and ideally, it would be to reverse this bearish dynamic, this market top with this type of reversal pattern and move back above 55 cents. If that happens, it would be quite good. Either we have a quick re-entry and we can have a chart like Ether. See, hop, this top pattern that we break, that we quickly re-enter, it's possible. However, if we reject, we will have to validate a reversal structure to reverse this dynamic. Now, we have a rebound that is underway. Well, let's put on moving averages, let's observe. What do we observe? Okay, we have a medium to long-term trend that is generally bearish, 4-hour tunnel, downward oriented tunnel. And we have here a short-term trend that is generally bullish with a break of this zone. There. After, we are in the 4-hour tunnel, let's see if we also have pivots. There, we have a monthly pivot point around 47 cents. We are not in the best zone here to take longs. Ideally, if we have a retracement in the coming hours, 15 minutes, 3 minutes, there can be a continuation of the trend in the very short term. But if we retrace, we are close to these resistance levels. So personally, I'm not a fan. After, if we start to settle above this block, okay, to have an acceleration, we consolidate, we have moving averages catching up. Okay, we have pullbacks. Then it can be more interesting, but I'm not a fan of entering this resistance zone, for my part. And we saw Tao. Now, Tao, where are we? Well, in the long term, Tao is a range, it doesn't change much. We see clearly, we are blocked here between two bounds. An upper extremity around $700, a lower extremity around $200. Classic, we always look to position ourselves at the extremities. There, close to the value area low at $240, a good zone to look for longs. Above the value area high, it estimates that our upper extremity is this zone. It's normal, there hasn't been a lot of volume in this zone. It's generally around $470. And the worst place generally to position yourself is in the value area, which represents 70% of the traded volumes. So, watch the continuation on Tao. We have lost, we will see it in the shorter term, a rather important level. It would be good to re-enter it. Here, we are clearly at a resistance level. Similarly, we can put a volume profile for this level. And it would be good to re-enter this value area high of $324. If that happens, there will be chances to reach $440 here. I'm putting moving averages here to see what we have. We are also in the 4-hour tunnel. There are quite a few altcoins in this configuration. If we manage to get out of this level and pullback, we can potentially look for a long with an invalidation below the impulsive candle or below the structure to retest the extremity. What is certain is that on Tao, we are at a resistance level, but we are also at a support level since we are close to our lower extremity at this level. So here, we are at decisions where we have little price amplitude to really be comfortable in our decisions. These are generally not the best setups. However, if we have re-entries and we flip these resistance levels into support, yes, it can be quite good.
Well, I'm done. As I said, put your altcoins that you want me to analyze in the comments. We will finish here with the question of the day that was asked to me. Hop! Thank you. Always difficult to add water to your already very full mill. Thank you very much, and I like the comparison. Could you please address the POE and the VPOC? So, the POE and the VPOC are pretty much the same thing. POE is the Point of Control, and VPOC is the Volume Point of Control. They are pretty much the same thing. It's the tool we saw just before. Okay? It's simply a volume profile that we can draw in this way. Several ways to put a volume profile. I'll go to another chart. Hop, here. Several ways. Either we put the volume profile in this way, fixed range volume profile, choosing a period, whichever you want. Very good. Or we choose the anchored volume profile, we decide the start of the period, and it will take us up to now. Okay? And logically, it displays it on the right, unless it's bugged. It seems to be the case here. Okay, it seems to be bugged. I don't know why. Sometimes it can be a row size problem. There, perfect. So, here I have my anchored volume profile. That is to say, I decided to put it from here. I have all the volumes from there. So, someone who wants to put it, who says, "No, I'll put it even further back, from here for example." And it's possible. You simply have the volumes over the entire period. After, I'll be very quick because this question wasn't asked to me, but I like to go into detail. That's me. You can go here to technical data, profile, and you have different types of volume, volume profile. I like the periodic volume profile, which simply allows me to use, I don't show it in video, but I can use it myself, it's to simply have volume profiles over a data period. Here, I'm on weekly, I'm on weekly, I believe. Yes, I'm on weekly to simply have level confluences, to see where I have, for example, a PO. The question that was asked to me, the PE, the PO, it's this red line. What is it? It's over the defined period, the place where there was the most volume, whether it was buyers or sellers. It's an interesting level. Interesting in different ways. It depends if you trade in a range or in a trend, how you look to position yourself. So, generally, when we are in a range, it's a zone I don't like too much because when you have a range like this, you will often see a volume profile that will look like this. Okay, very good. Hop, and you will see your PO like this. Why? Because where there is the most traded volume, it's roughly the middle of the range. Not always, but quite often. It can be a good zone to tell you, if you are range trading, not to position yourself, okay, because it's the middle of the range. Or it's a very good level to say, "Okay, I'm looking to take my profits in this zone." Why? Because it's often a level that will act as support or resistance. Assume that if we are above it, okay, it means buyers have the upper hand, and there are quite a few sellers who are stuck in this zone because there are quite a lot of executed volumes, so there are both buyers and sellers. And if we return to it, it can be an opportunity for short-sellers, for sellers to exit at break-even. A short-seller exiting at break-even buys back their position, it can act as support, okay? And when trading in a trend, however, pullbacks on the volume profile can be interesting. The proof here, hop, we came back to test the volume profile at the opening of the week. It's a good zone. There, if we extend it, these are often levels that can be retested and can act as support or resistance for a long time before. You see this level, if we extend it, well, it was tested once here, twice here, it was tested there. These are always relevant levels. It doesn't work every time. Okay? Not because there's a PO, it's 100% sure it will work, it's always probabilities, of course, but having confluences like this is also interesting. We see that if we extend it, it's still a relevant level that acted as support or resistance, okay? Depending on whether we are above or below it. So, think of the PO as where the most volume is traded. It's a level of interest where we can see where buyers and sellers are stuck. And it can be a tool that can help you determine support or resistance levels. I'm finished with everything I said. As I told you at the beginning of the video, don't hesitate to join the Discord. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.