Transcription
Week 16 fantasy football running back rankings. Let's do this because you got to win your fantasy football semifinals to get to the championship. Aiden, I mean the top nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 running backs here. Got a lot of prime time players. And start off with your number one. This is Jir Gibbs against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's actually running back four in consensus rankings. So why place him in the top spot here? Well, he seems pretty good at football, start there. The Lions also have the highest team total of the week at 29 and a half points. They're back at home. The Steelers defensive line is injured. We'll see about TJ Watt's lung. Uh, I think Derrick Harmon, the first round defense tackle, is going to come back, but we'll see how many snaps he's going to play. Really like the Lions offense is like absolutely shredding. Even last week when they lost, I thought they were completely unconscious. And then Gibb just gets out to the edge, catches passes. Um, so he's the RB3 in usage this month and the Lions are uh, they're kind of by themselves this week in terms of team total. Yeah, they're three points higher than any other team this week.
>> Mosho and the underdog team posted, I thought, a great graphic spread of, you know, Jir Gibbs going from >> three touchdowns to zero touchdowns and three touchdowns to zero touchdowns to three touchdowns to zero touchdowns. Well, guess what? When they play the LA Rams last week, their projected team total is closer to 22 points. When they face the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, it's closer to 30 points.
>> Yep.
>> I'm just going to guess and allow you to assume which of those performances is more likely for Jamir Gibbs to get three touchdowns versus zero touchdowns.
>> Yeah, I'm going 30. [laughter]
>> Okay. Bjun Robinson is the running back, too. This is at the Arizona Cardinals. Kurt Cousins, another start here. Drake London potentially coming back as well, but as we have seen for this Cardinals team, they are giving up 40 points basically to whatever offense they're facing.
>> Falcons are ninth in projected points this week, all the way up 25 and a quarter. That's with Kurt Cousins. Um, so Bejian Robinson had a season high in expected half PPPR points this last week. Tyler Algier was not used very much. So bean he's projected for the most total yards according to the underdog pickum lobby at 133 and a half total yards. So um, that's insane, insane, like CMC level usage. So the top of this, of this list this week is like really, really, really strong.
>> Well, let's go to Chris McAffrey then next. He's still on pace, I would say, for his second 1,000 yard season. He needs, I think, about like 150, 200 of each to get there. Um,
>> here he is facing the Indianapolis Colts on the road, but we get him in a dome and as you and I keep saying,
>> the 49ers could be playing like their best ball and especially on offense right now.
>> Oh yeah, Brock Pury looked really good getting outside the pocket. So I think that's going to extend drives. No Ricky Paw probably means even more receptions for Christian McCaffrey. DeForest Buckner's been out for the Colts for a while. Um, the dome environment is clean and they're projected for the second most points on the week at 26 and a half. So, there's really like no negative notes you could say about Christian McCaffrey. His rushing efficiency is bad. I don't think the offensive line is all that good right now. But aside from that, everything about this is really, really strong.
>> Well, how about James Cook in a spot where the Bills are favored by 10 points on the road. Yep.
>> Again, against the Cleveland Browns. Now, we know about the weather. In fact, I'll talk about one game on Thursday that has the most weather impact at this moment. But we've seen this Browns defense kind of get run on as of late. And
>> this rushing attack by James Cook, it's explosives and it's also efficiency. And it really is kind of the focal point of these contests until Josh Allen can or attempts to take over.
>> He's the RB2 in usage this month. They've been really run-heavy. They're bottom five in neutral pass rate right now. And James Cook just is doing it in a different way than across the league. He's like the only running back that's actually being used like under center, just and he's ripping off explosives. So just like a kind of a throwback way to use an undersized back. So really cool. Uh, they're third in projected points uh this week up at 26 and James Script is on his side and he pretty much doesn't miss anymore.
>> All right. We talked about it yesterday on stats versus film how from a fantasy lens we would have loved for Tua Tagovailoa to continue to be the starting quarterback against the Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, that's not the case. I understand why. At the same time, since Tua was benched for what, seventh round pick Quinn Ewers, the Dolphins team total, I believe, dropped by three points. Yeah.
>> Uh, now it is a team total projected for just under 22 at this moment. So Devon Achain is a running back two in consensus rankings for you as running back five and still a must start, no matter what.
>> Yeah, still really like him. Pick him lobby wise, he's still at 115 total yards. Just of the four in front of them, you have to feel by far the worst about his situation than the rest of them now. He's unbelievable and the Bengals defense at linebacker and safety is as bad as it gets. So you should be able to just like make him the focal point. And Quinn Ewers has no like arm strength anymore for whatever reasons. Bunch of injuries. So I think stylistically it's going to be largely the same offense as it was with Tua, just with a quarterback that's probably more prone to throw interceptions or something like that. So I'm not expecting too much to change. It just be probably a diminished version of the offense. But still, it's the Cincinnati Bengals. They haven't stopped anybody.
>> Everyone watched that Monday night football game and the Dolphins were hopeless. I mean, it, it was pitiful. And yet with no teams on a buy, everyone in the ship, Deonte Chan was still once again the running back 12 in. And you know, the previous weeks that has been the running back 9, 11, 2, 8, 5, and seven. So I'm still confidently starting Don Hen because I'll continue to say that I think he is the most unheralded superstar in the NFL.
>> I agree.
>> Jonathan Taylor's on the opposite end of that matchup with Christian McCaffrey. This is the Indianapolis Colts versus the San Francisco 49ers and your running back six.
>> I had him ranked as running back 17, which felt about right uh watching that game last, like last week. So, this is a big upgrade. I just feel way better about this version of the Colts. So, first of all, Philip Rivers like survived the last game. That's a plus. That thing could have gone even more sideways than it did. The Seahawks defense is so much better than the 49ers. They're so injured. They can't rush the passer whatsoever. It was also the, the highest neutral run rate of the season for the Colts. So, the entire offense is going to be built around Jonathan Taylor. I think that offensive line could actually push the 49ers around. So, they're back at home in a dome. Uh, and you just get another full week of Philip Rivers in the building. Maybe kind of loosen up some of those joints just a little bit. So, just kind of night and day in terms of the environment from last week to this week.
>> It kind of has to be night and day. And I even think, you know, prior to Rivers coming in when Daniel Jones was there, now that was against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans, uh, but, you know, Jonathan Taylor has been the running back 26, 19, 20, and then 21 over his last four. So, if he's anywhere close to running back six overall this week, that's a huge W and a huge improvement versus what he's been over the last month.
>> My last note, he's the last running back we'll talk to who's above a 100 total yards in the pick and lobby. He's up at 112, which is actually like above James Cook, above Christian McAffrey, almost next to Jier Gibbs. I feel better about those teams, but um, pretty fascinating that the total yards is that high.
>> Well, a huge matchup is Derrick Henry as your running back seven. This is against the New England Patriots. He did hit 100 rushing yards last week on like 11 carries. You talked about how wonky that game was. Um, this Patriots team, no Milton Williams at defensive tackle. And I believe I also read that Robert Spelain was walking the locker room with a boot, one of their starting linebackers on top of it. So,
>> while halfway through the season the Patriots run defense was one of the best in the league, it has tailed off a little bit as we saw with, you know, James Cook and Josh Allen last week, too.
>> The Patriots defense is now 30th in rushing EPA per play and 31st in rushing success rate since Milton Williams got injured in week 11. That's from Doug uh Cay. So, yeah, it's been really bad. They've allowed 100 plus yards to backfields in three straight games. Um, so I feel pretty good about this spot. I don't love the the Ravens offense, but it looks a whole lot better when Lamar Jackson's creating out of structure as much as he did this this past week. So, um, they're actually home favorites as well. So, like throw out the records. Uh, right now the Ravens are eighth in projected points. And, uh, I don't think the Patriots defense is all that good, uh, at least compared to their numbers. To close out the top eight running backs, that is Josh Jacobs at the Chicago Bears.
>> Can't wait for that Bears Packers matchup. Jacobs himself has found the end zone in 10 of his last 12 complete games. Can he make it 11 of 13 here?
>> Certainly odds are on his side. He had 92 total yards and a score against the Bears a couple weeks back. What's new here is I'm guessing Christian Watson's not going to play. Zack Tom also left, so it wasn't just Micah Parsons. and it's it's everybody right now. Um, Josh Jacobs had a season low in usage, then he dunked on somebody uh as a receiver out of nowhere and was still trucking sticking everybody as a rusher. So, I don't know, man. He's he's their offense. He's like the steady Eddie part of it. Uh, the team total is still above average despite all the injuries at 23 and a half. And the Bears run defense is still pretty mediocre. Yeah, Josh Jacobs had one of those games where, you know, the haters could say, "Oh, he's only getting there because of volume and because of his usage." And then last week he has, like you said, the lowest usage of his week and then he dunks on T.J. Watt and then he has a 40-yard touchdown run on top of it.
>> He's so good, man. These guys, he's nerdy to watch the damn games. Josh Jacobs is the man. He is.
>> You did. You did. Okay. Saquon Barkley is your running back nine. We caught it last week. It was obvious get right spot for the Philadelphia Eagles offense against the Raiders. And it's back-to-back situations for them here against the Washington Commanders as we continue to talk about. I mean, Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu, these guys getting to the edge, it's just disastrous. I mean, over the last five games, the Commanders are allowing 5.2 yards per carry to running backs. Uh, so again, it might not be the huge 17, 18, 19-yard runs that we got last year, but in the end, you would like to think that Saquon Barkley has one of his best performances of the season in this one.
>> Yeah. The hard part is the Commander defense, you said what, 5.2 yards per carry, but Saquon Barkley since the by-week is averaging 3.3 yards per carry if you remove that tush push fake 52-yard. And last week it was get right spot against the Raiders. So, what does Saquon Barkley have? 3.5 yards per carry. So, there's still some like issues with the Eagles offense. They're passing the ball more than they typically have. Um, certainly though, odds are up that Saquon Barkley could rip off a big play. He can just like potentially just run right by
>> Bobby Wagner. So, uh, yeah, I feel good about it. I don't feel like insanely great about it just because I think that the offensive line is just pretty mediocre running the ball.
>> This is the lowest I've seen in a very long time. Saquon Barkley 15 and a half longest rush. That's his higher or lower there. So, I'm going to take that and that's over in underdog. You can play right now. Join me. Use promo code the show or click the link in the description down below. If you play your first time, five bucks will give you 75 bucks in bonus cash on top of it. We're in over 40 states, you know, 20 plus in prediction markets, including Florida, Texas, Georgia, California. Only the most beautiful states. So if you win in if you live in those, you can win in those at the same time. So go and play on underdog.
Next, Travis Etien as your running back 10 at the Denver Broncos. We know that this offense is on an absolute heater. It's a very different proposition going up against the Jets defense last week and then on the road against the Broncos defense this week.
>> Also, just want to shout out Travis Etien's the first running back we're talking about who is not drafted in the first three rounds of drafts. In fact, most of the running backs we talked about were either first or second round picks. I think James Cook was more of a third rounder, but aside from that, it's just been all the elite running backs just kind of holding the line. Travis Etien's been one of the breakout guys. No BAL tootin here. It's not going to be as easy as just identifying the Jets linebackers and just constantly beating them. Uh, now you got to go into Denver. Team total is a little bit below average at 21 and three-quarters. But Laquin Allen just going to be out there to pass protect. Travis ET is gonna catch everything. Be the goal line back, be the home run threat. He's a true Bellcow. He's on pace for his third 1400-yard season and a career-high in touchdowns in general. You just feel the Lean Cohen when you watch the Travis ETN tape. So, don't love the matchup, but love everything else.
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Chase Brown is up next. I felt like Sajj Perine has not gotten phased out, but is taking less of the, I don't know, 45% work than he was prior to his injury. Um, obviously these are kind of two, I would say, uneasy organizations right now with the Miami Dolphins doing their stuff and the Cincinnati Bengals doing theirs, but uh, Chase Brown is getting a lot of the work and the Bengals are, you know, projected favorites here with the team total of nearly 26 points.
>> Yeah, huge team total despite being on the road. Still like the Dolphins defense for what it is, but they have really lost a lot of players at the deadline and whatnot. So, uh, my big split with Chase Brown is there's been five healthy games with Joe Burrow. Chase Brown's averaging almost 16 half PPR points equivalent to RB7 in usage. Uh, that was down at 13 expected points. So, pretty big difference. Obviously, when you have Joe Burrow back in the lineup, um, so yeah, I think that he's like a fringe RB1 right now. He's at 79 and a half total yards in the pickum lobby. It sounds like T. Higgins has a chance to play in this one, though. Uh, obviously that high team total does mean a lot of T. Higgins and Jamar Chase, but uh, I'd rather have a high team total than a low one.
Next is R.J. Harvey. He's your running back 12. Uh, been a stellar fantasy asset over the last seven games. This is against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Again, maybe this is an AFC playoff preview.
>> Compared to I don't know what everyone thought prior to the season, especially if the do, the the Broncos get the number one seed here in the AFC. If we're looking at it at home, Broncos are projected to win by three points. Team total of nearly 25. That's exactly an environment we like in this situation.
>> 10th in team total. Uh, the Broncos have been passing the ball more since the JK Dobbins injury, but that means R.J. Harvey's part of the pass game. So, he gets more receptions than a lot of the running backs kind of ranked around him. I feel good that he's going to be the goal line back. They haven't gone to Jul Mclofflin down there in quite a while. So, while I haven't been a huge R.J. Harvey guy on tape, uh, I don't really care all that much just because he's got the role that we're after. He's pretty much a bellcow at this point, playing like 80% of the snaps. Did want to mention if I was like doing pick and lobby stuff, I would just center this around the receiving game because opposing offenses against Jacksonville have the highest pass rate uh across the entire season. and R.J. Harvey can work there. So, if you want to get off to the edge, throw a couple screens to him, some swing passes, and let him boogie. I think it's a pretty good way to combat the Jacksonville like pretty chaotic defense.
>> Yeah, over his last five of the seven games, running back six, nine, four, five, and 22 overall in those weeks. Okay, let's go to Javonte Williams as your running back 13. This is against the LA Chargers. It's kind of felt like I'm not gonna say lackluster from Javonte, but I get it in the opening month of the season. It's like, dang, we might have a top eight, nine running back in fantasy football.
>> Uh, all season long. And he's come not out of nowhere, but uh, kind of a post-hype sleeper type.
>> And then now he kind of just exists in this offense. And it didn't help that he missed,
>> you know, an entire quarter this past weekend. What Malik Davis rushed for a score in his stead?
>> Yes. Yeah. So, to your point there, in the first five games, he had three top five finishes. Uh, since the by-week, he's been running back 25, 19, 11, 17, 15. Uh, I've I've ranked him as like the running back 13 in like eight straight weeks, it feels like, and I really don't have anything to kind of change off of that. Uh, Chargers defense is good, but they're worse against the run than the pass. Uh, so hopefully Javonte Williams is healthy. Tyler Ledyard, their left tackle. Uh, hopefully he can get healthy here. But he is the RB7 in usage and the Cowboys offense, it's just so high floor. Like even last week against the Vikings, they got him a couple times, but for the most part, Dallas was moving the football for a lot of that game.
>> Right? And don't get me wrong, still still a must start. Uh, just the season's very long and he's still going to be probably a top 10 running back in points per game at at the end of it. So, just a spectacular season here for Javonte Williams and the people who drafted him.
Next is Tyree Henderson as your running back 14. This is at the Baltimore Ravens. Uh, he had some really long runs last night.
>> He's dead. He's really fast. So that's that's my takeaway from watching him. Um, maybe reason why I'm like a little bit lower is New England's team total is just a lot lower. It's at 23 points, which is still like above average. Um, but now we're facing the Ravens defense and their defensive line's not all that great, but they got players like Kyle Hamilton and whatnot that could actually tackle and run sideline to sideline. So, um, the goal line, I, I kind of studied the the Patriots goal line um usage since Raandre's returned. They pretty much have been kind of rotating about the three, four-yard line. We haven't had like a bunch of goal line carries and whatnot, but they've run like a lot of play action passes down there and both of them get reps. So, it's not like
>> I'd say that's a W for Hindo in a way.
>> Yes, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, you're what down 35 pounds to the guy and you're still splitting the goal line work. That's a win for Tayvon Henderson. He's been the RB15 in usage. He's still going to be in like 50% of the snaps. They don't trust him in the pass game, but man, he can really take off running here. So, uh, boom bust RB2 and we've seen what the upside looks like recently. Uh, and hopefully he can kind of keep riding the wave.
Here's DeAndre Swift against the Green Bay Packers. Uh, we have seen certain game plans where the Bears just lean into their rushing attack. Uh, you know, Michael Parsons wasn't just a fantastic pass rusher. I would say he's been a strong run defender in certain situations, too. So, uh, despite the narrative out there, so here we are with Chicago and Green Bay uh at home, a team total of just around 22 points. So, that is, I, I would say lower than typical right now for the Bears.
>> Yeah, definitely a little bit lower. But like you said, it's no Micah Parsons, no Devonte Wyatt, their top [clears throat] defensive tackle on top of it. So, if we don't get Roma Dunes and Luther Burden back in the lineup, too, they're questionable. They didn't practice uh a couple days ago. Um, so, we'll see about them. But, if we start chopping off wide receivers and the Packers are missing defensive linemen, doesn't that just stream run the ball a ton? Um, in the last three games, DeAndre Swift, the RB6 and RB16 usage. Nothing's really changed. It's kind of the same rotation. My young guy got hot for a second, but for the most of the season, DeAndre Swift's like the most running back 15 there was. So, I'm kind of sticking with it.
Moving on, another rookie running back. Here we are with Woody Marks, who still got there with a fumble touchdown last week, but based on what Jaw Jordan did, it could have been like a spectacular day easily for Woody Marks. So,
>> that's one of those performances that sure he gave you a floor performance, but it could have been not an all-time great, but just a fantastic first round of the playoffs here from from Woody.
>> Yeah, that was a bummer. Um, obviously, we're doing this very early in the week. I don't know if Woody Mars is gonna play. I don't know if Nick Chubb's gonna play. I don't know if Joe Mixon's gonna play. Who knows who's going to be the starting running back. But whoever that Texans starting running back is, I'm gonna have a lot of interest because they have a top five team total this week up at 26 points. They're hosting the Raiders who are projected for 11 points. So, Game script is going to be on his side. And if it goes back to where Woody Marx is active and Nick Chubb misses, he did not come off the field in those instances. So, he will go right back up to where I had him ranked this last week where he was inside the top 12. Um, I can't explain why he's in the injury tent every other series. But, if we can kind of connect the dots here, there is a huge ceiling for you name the Texans running back.
Okay. Bucky Irving is consensus rankings running back 10. He's your running back 17. Why so much lower?
>> Really? Well, he's not the goal line back. Let's start there. Sean Tucker comes in three different drives for the goal line. Uh, carries and we talked about on stats versus film. You made a good point that you want to get Shawn Tucker some touches. Where is he most effective? Probably at the goal line because he's much bigger than Bucky Irving. By the way, Bucky Irving is like not having a great season. Obviously, he's coming back from these injuries, but he's a like three and a half yards per carry. Uh, both of the guards are out for the Buccaneers. Both of them on injured reserve. Um, so yeah, like they have like the Panthers got a pretty nice defensive tackle over there. It's an division game on the road. Like these are the games that kind of just get kind of mediocre and I, I just felt the Buccaneers without Liam Cohen. And I think Bucky Irving had a lot of screens, cut like what 50, 60 passes last year, had a really high yards per target as well. Uh, I think he almost had like a 90% catch rate last year. You just don't feel those numbers this year. So, uh, he's been the running back 21 in usage since returning. So, I think that's where I'm just going to park him. I think the running back 10 stuff is like pretty egregious. I think it's been virtually impossible to know what to expect from the Giants backfield longer than a three-game stretch this entire season.
>> Yes.
>> Uh, and I think that extends to last week where Tyrone Tracy just totally owned the backfield.
>> Yeah.
>> Out of a buy, out of a game that he gets carded off and then he goes out there and owns what, like 70% of the work?
>> Yes.
>> Anyways, Tyrone Tracy to me still looks good. He, you know, forced a lot of missed tackles and ran through arm tackles. Now, again, that was the Washington Commanders defense, and now he faces the Minnesota Vikings one, which has historically been difficult to run on, but still, if that continues, and that's a big if, then Tyrone Tracy is going to be in my lineup this week.
>> This month, he's running back 16 and running back 18 usage. Like you said, it's been kind of up and down getting there, but he has a big play kind of waiting to happen. And this Giants offense, even last week, I know they lost the game, but that offense was still really moving the football throughout. So they're they're top 15 in EPA per play and success rate um since Jackson Dart's kind of taken over. So the only note I will say I went back Devin Singletary entered into the game when they were inside the 5-yard line every single time. So I think we're still have to overcome that. He did last week because he scored a 12-yard touchdown and that 18-yard touchdown on Bobby Wagner. So he can still get get there. I think his touchdown equity is probably a little bit lower than some of the guys ranked around him.
Moving on. Marin Hampton, rookie running back, back in the fold as your running back 19 this week. Just looking at consensus rankings, he's all the way down as running back 23. I get it from both angles here. Um, I get it from yours in that Hampton is this team's best running back, right?
>> Yes. Now, I also get it that Kamani Vidal was in protection for eight drop backs last week, Mon Hampton for zero, yet Hampton still wins out in the snaps that he plays, much more condensed for targets. And then you also have to factor in that this Dallas rushing defense has just been like really good, allowing a league low 56, 56 rushing yards and 3.7 yards per carry, which is six in the league uh since they made that deal for Quinn Williams five weeks ago. Yeah, I think that the split between Hampton and Vidal is just going to get a little bit bigger and it doesn't even have to get that much bigger than last week where Hampton got the goal line carry and a lot more of just the work in general despite not playing all the snaps. Uh, the big difference was last week what the Chargers were projected for like 19 points. It's kind of been down below average for the last like since Joe Walt's been out. This week Chargers are projected for 23 and a half. Obviously, a lot of that's because the pass game. Hampton could be a little bit a part of that. But in general, even if Hampton, they're moving the ball through the air. If they get tackled at the one-yard line, in comes Hampton, who's going to be the goal line back to score. So, I'd rather see a high team total, even if it's more of a pass funnel, especially. I've seen Hampton out in the flats, go crazy. And I still don't trust the the the Cowboys linebackers and safeties right now. So, uh, don't like the matchup on the interior, but everything else I think's looking pretty solid.
All right. Another disagreement you have with consensus rankings is with the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield. They outright have Jaylen Warren ahead of Kenny Gainwell and they also have Kenny Gainwell as running back 30 and he's your running back 20.
>> I mean, go ask Aaron Rodgers where he would be ranking in these rankings. I think it would be really high. Kenny Gainwell this month is the running back 21 on running back 13 usage. That's according to my half PPR model. So, if you guys play in full PPR, his value is even higher than that. He's getting targets in pony personnel in empty. He's getting screen targets. He's getting like checks at the line of scrimmage to make sure Kenny Gainwell catches his passes. He's like fourth and threes out in the flats. He's he's a very important part to the Steelers offense right now who wants to chuck the ball and not have Rogers take hits. Is that not especially true when they're going to be in a dome and they're seven-point dogs? You know, like you're facing the Lions, you're going to be in like negative game script. I think that's like gonna be the type of formula where Kenny Gainwell is even gonna get more work. So, he's not the goal line back. But if think about the Patriots backfields over over the time, uh, the Sean Payton backfields, that's what Kenny Gainwell is. He's like our true PPR scam of the year. And usually everyone loves this type of profile. So, I'm kind of confused by consensus rankers. They usually overrate this profile. And now I'm seeing it the other way.
There's a lot to discuss here with your running back 21. That is Kyren Williams on Thursday night at the Seattle Seahawks. First of all, everyone knows that our conversation last week included Blake Corum with these running back rankings quite highly. Um, and that's because the Rams were projected for 30 points. It's all the way down at 21. The Seahawks are at 22. And a big part of that, according to our buddy Kevin Roth over at RotoGrinders, is the weather. Um, I'll just quote this. Okay, actually a really interesting forecast. Two things that stand out looking at high-res forecast models. First, I don't think rain chances are near as high as the automated forecasts are suggesting. Uh, and then second, I'm seeing multiple models suggest a period of sustained winds around 20 miles per hour with gusts up to over 40 miles per hour. That would be a factor in throws and kicks. I'm putting the game at an orange more for wind than the rain, but this is a forecast that we'll have to circle back to pregame. A lot to factor in there, right? But why Kyren maybe the lowest he's been ranked all season long?
Just because of the wind? I think that would probably mean more carries and they they've gotten uh Kyren Williams kind of an option route. Let's move him ahead of Tyron Tracy um here just to factor in the wind a little bit more in the weather. Um, but the reason why he is low is the formula has been written for a long time. He loses almost half the work to Blake Corum and on like a drive-by-drive basis. And that's okay when you're projected for 30 points. And the reality is the Rams have been scoring 40. We talk about the the implied team totals. The actual points in the game, which matter a lot more, have been in the 40s. Now we're projected for 21. So it's just a little bit harder to make the math work if you're giving Kyren 60% of the work at 21 points than 60% of the work at 40 points, which we've seen them on a run here. So uh and then on top of that, the Seahawks are just a kick-ass defense in general. So, um, I think he's an RB2. You got to play him. But there's a reason why he's listed at 67 and a half total yards in the pick and lobby, which is actually less than my boy Kenny Gainwell.
Some other interesting notes here. This is from Reeves' worksheet. He only had 13 touches when these two teams played back in week 11, but that turned into 96 yards and a touchdown. But the vast majority of those were in the first quarter. Six carries for 76 yards and that touchdown. That was when Seattle was playing a lot of nickel and dime versus the Rams multiple tight end sets. Since then and all season long Seahawks are allowing a league low 3.6 yards per carry to running backs. So I'll be interested to see especially without Devonte Adams unless the reports come true that it's only a red zone package which just leave him at home.
Okay.
Leave him at home until we're in the playoffs. Like what do we need to see Devonte Adams in week 17 and 18 for anyways?
>> Right. So rather than the Whittingtons or the Mumpfields, which those guys might play, I would be surprised if like the vast majority of the Ram snaps. We've already seen in certain games 40 of 67 were in 13 personnel in these three tight end sets. So that can help and sometimes hinder running backs on top of it. But I, I bet the running game, they will try early on to make it work. That's for sure.
>> For sure. For sure.
>> Uh, anything you want to say about the wide receivers in this weather, too, now that we're here ahead of Thursday night?
>> Um, I haven't done my official rankings on them yet. The wind. We'll have to update that. But this one's pretty easy. Puka Nacua and JSN are one, two pretty much every single week. And then beyond that, you really can't start the Seahawks wide receiver 2 because we don't know if that's Shahed or Kupp at this point. And I'm not ranking Mumfield. So, it's pretty simp. Okay.
Breece Hall is your running back 22. This is at the New Orleans Saints. Uh, disaster game for Breece Hall last week. Got a bunch of work then got taken out and then Isaiah Davis gets the touchdown.
>> Yeah, it was brutal. Um, I had Breece Hall like closer to like wider or running back 29 or somewhere in that because I thought that we would get Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields, and right before we log in, it's it's Mr. Brady Cook again. So I'm going to have to readjust and move him down because the last two weeks he's at under 10 expected points and guess what? When your quarterback's Brady Cook, a lot of times you don't meet expectations. So, uh, team totals at what, 18 points, and that could drop, uh, now that we got Brady Cook back in the lineup. So, don't love it.
At the same time, the spread is not large. I mean, it's four points right now in comparison to what 10, 11 points that it was last week. So, at least they can try to stay competitive for all four quarters this time.
>> We'll see. Maybe they're just underrating Tyler Shuck though on the other side.
>> Maybe. Uh, Aaron Jones is running back 23. This is at the New York Giants. I think it's continued to be this drive for drive stuff here with the Vikings backfield.
>> Yeah, it really has. And that's just a big bummer for Aaron Jones, but it does make sense for the Vikings. They want to take a longer look at Jordan Mason to see if he can be kind of a featured back for them moving forward. Um, but this month since they've kind of gone to that rotation, Aaron Jones, the running back 43 on running back 37 usage. So, in the last four games, he's been between 7.2 and 8.9 expected points. So, I moved him up as high as I could knowing it's the Giants defense who just keeps firing defensive uh coaches. Um, so it's an eruption spot, no doubt about it. How high could you move that up if they're truly splitting this thing 50/50? Uh, I've kind of settled as like a boom bust like RB23 type. I think you have to play him. Like him versus receivers in the flex, I would definitely go Aaron Jones way, but you can only move him so much because the baseline's been pretty low recently.
All right, let's talk Rico Dowdle. Scored a touchdown on the Panthers opening drive last week, but after that, he and Chuba Hubbard ran into walls. On top of that, uh, Ianu, the starting left tackle, uh, had an MRI yesterday and is like day-to-day or questionable to miss this game.
>> That would be huge. Um, it's just like another injury for the offensive line and that matters a lot when you're facing Tampa Bay. So for the last couple years, no one tries to run the ball on the Pan, or on the Bucks, and the Panthers want to run the ball on everybody. So I think that's going to be a big matchup, like what's going to give. Um, we'll see. And then on top of that, Tedrone McMillan is dealing with an injury right now. So this is one we got to kind of wait and see mode. The only like for sure note that I have is Rico Dowdle played almost 80% of the early down snaps and Chuba Hubbard played almost every single third and fourth down snap. So it's that's going to be what the rotation is. Uh, Rico's going to be the goal line back. You just have to kind of question how many goal line opportunities you're going to have against Vea and then also how effective they're going to be if they're dealing with a bunch of backup offensive linemen.
>> Yeah. And even both of them were in for two fourth down attempts. Uh, so Rico as the halfback and then Chuba as the fullback.
>> So there you go. [clears throat]
>> Michael Carter makes an appearance in week 16 fantasy football. Yep. As your running back 25. Is he the last man standing in the Arizona Cardinals backfield or could there be one more name behind?
>> I mean, I know you want me to say Corey Clement, but I refuse to acknowledge his existence.
>> That's that's week 17.
>> Yeah, I'll give you that. I'm not rolling anything out. Uh, week 17 and beyond. Uh, Amari Demarcado came back, but was barely playing. It was all Michael Carter one snap night left and that happened on the first drive. So, we got like 80% of the game as what the Cardinals are going to commit to and that's Michael Carter as the goal line back and as the early down back. So I went back since James Conner's injury, there's been a new RB1 like pretty much every single week. They kind of rotate, but on average the Cardinals lead back is seeing about RB18 usage. So I kind of knocked them down because they're dealing with a bunch of backup offensive linemen, but the Cardinals are projected for 23 points against the Falcons. So like
>> it's a percent stat.
>> It is a percent stat, but Michael Carter last time I checked could catch passes if they if they did want to. Um, but I kind of trust the offense at this point. And Michael Carter, they showed his hand last week, like Michael Carter was the early down guy. So, this is as high as I can rank somebody who I know I can get rug pulled at any moment, but I kind of feel decent about this.
>> Yeah, just hand up. Fantasy semi-finals in the underdog dynasty league. Uh, I picked up Michael Carter this week and dropped a job for him.
>> So, there we go.
>> Yeah, I'm playing JJ Zachariason in the semis and he's he's got Michael Carter, but he's also got Philip Rivers. [laughter]
>> Okay, Tony Pollard is up next. This is against the Kansas City Chiefs. Uh, Tony Pollard really good last week. He's kind of on like a really nice stretch of games after I left him for dead, to be honest.
>> Yeah, I, I had him in the in the drop list at one point when during the waiver wire show. I mean, for a while it was beyond pathetic for the Titans. Their offensive line is showing some improvements. Uh, a couple like pin-and-pull plays have really sprung Tony Pollard all the way to the end zone. Now, we got to be realistic. Those plays have happened the last two weeks, but for the rest of the season, we're non-existent. So, we can't just all of a sudden he's not Chris Johnson, all of a sudden. Um, and the Titans are still projected for 17 points. It's still the Chiefs run defense who you still have to deal with Chris Jones. Uh, who didn't know he was eliminated from the playoffs until the reporters uh
>> yeah, had to tell him after. That happens a lot. Like I'm the one surprise.
>> Yeah, he does not. Um, so yeah, he's been the RB11 this month, but on RB30 usage, I'll tip my cap to him. He's been awesome recently. And also acknowledging they're projected for the third fewest points of the week. Last two weeks the running back nine overall and running back two overall, that's been Tony Pollard.
>> And list like the la the other 12 games running back 38, 44,
>> 47, 32, 45, 27, 33, so
>> what, what could you
>> what a game. You're right till you're wrong and you're wrong till you're right.
>> Uh, Kyle Manungai is next as your running back 27. Um, he's had a bit of hands issues in uh, some targets go his direction these last couple of weeks.
>> Um, but against the Green Bay Packers, like we continue to talk about, would not be shocked if the Bears get the ground game going.
>> He's another player that's been very up and down. You see that with a lot of rookies, but on average this month, he's the running back 33 on running back 27 usage. We talked about that. No Michael Parsons, no Devonte Wyatt up front. I think they're going to try to run the ball. That's especially true if Roma and Luther Burden can't play. Nothing's changed for Kyle Manunga. He's dropped the ball a couple times, but he's can check boxes. He can have an explosive play in this offense. He could have a goal line touchdown in this offense. And that's the definition of a flex to me.
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Next up, Jaylen Warren. Anything you want to add to this backfield in Pittsburgh? He's just losing a lot of the pass production uh stuff to Kenny Gainwell and they're expected to lose by seven points. So, could they establish the run with them? Uh, we'll see about that. Uh, dealing with a couple offensive line issues up front with with injury. Um, yeah, he's still the goal line back, but he needs goal line touchdowns to kind of pay off. He's kind of like in inverted his own role in the offense. Yeah, he used to be Kenny Gainwell and now he's Naji Harris.
Um, >> okay, David Montgomery here, a string of running back twos. Um, >> if if you've made it this far and you drafted Dave Montgomery, these are your typical David Montgomery games when the Lions are projected for nearly 30 points. They've had 10 games this year when they've been between 24 and 44 points. David Montgomery has averaged 11 and a half half PPPR points in those, which is like flex consideration. Um, we'll see about TJ Watt if he can go with his lung injury. Mentioned Derrick Harman, the defensive tackle, will come back here most likely. They've been a lot more Jir Gibbs heavy. They've been a lot more pass game heavy. So, that's why David Montgomery is no longer the running back 20 like he was last couple years. He's more running back 30, but like you said, they're projected for the most points on the week. This is the times to start him.
>> Okay. Quinn Chan Judkins is up next. Uh, unfortunately, he's on a team that repeatedly is projected around 16 points with a backup offensive lineman, and that makes him your running back 30 against the Buffalo Bills.
>> Yeah, the offensive line, I'd say, probably the worst in the league right now. Like them, the Chargers, there's a couple teams, but they're dealing with four backup linemen and they had like no depth. And then some of the depth players are also hurt. Um, we'll see about Dylan Samson if he's going to return. Last week, Quinnshaw Duncan had a season high 67% snaps. How many fantasy points did that equate to? Uh, not many because the Browns scored three points. It's the second lowest projected team of the week. That makes sense to me. The positives are Quinn Judkins film is good and the brand or the the Bills run defense is bad, but everything else about the situation is is pretty lackluster.
>> Ken Walker running back 31 against the Rams is next. Week 11 when they played previously 16 carries, 67 yards. Also scored. Also caught three passes of 44 yards. I remember the good old days, don't you?
>> The good old day for Kenneth Walker this season. Yeah, he's the running back 47 this month on running back 32 usage. We'll see. I don't think that this offensive line is going able to push the depth that the Rams have up front. and the Rams secondary is in such a bad spot that as long as the winds can kind of die down a little bit, I think the Seahawks are going to be able to pass the ball on them to to some degree. So, it's been a rotation. He keeps getting a bunch of the stuff early on and then in the fourth quarter he gets nothing. That's just kind of been the MO with Kenneth Walker.
>> Yeah. I mean, again, I know this past game was tight, but as we talked about early this season, >> the Seahawks can't just match up with you and beat you as a run blocking unit and it put them into some uncomfortable situations late in games when a lot of the other teams will just run out the clock and extend drives and they just simply couldn't.
>> Yep.
>> So, that sucks. Also, I think Charles Cross might be out for this game, too, and he's been dealing with an an injury and had a DMP when they didn't really have practice. So, that's something to keep in mind because that's their best offensive lineman at left tackle.
>> Yep.
>> Blake Cororum, anything you want to add as running back, 32.
>> You did the math on stats versus film. It hits a lot different when you're projected for 21 instead of 31. So, um, he's I think he's a very good player. The Rams rushing success rate is awesome. And at the same time, the Seahawks are really well coached. They'll be well prepared for the three tight end stuff. They have the bodies to kind of match up there. So, I would trust Mike McDonald to kind of slow down the Rams to to some degree.
Let's get back into uh quote unquote running back one territory here. Ashen Genty is uh running back 33 at the Houston Texans. I did see that Gino Smith might have a chance to play in this game. Okay.
>> Uh even that note has raised the uh team total from 11 to 11 and three/4ers. Well, I would love to see Gino Smith because I can't watch any more Kenny Picket. It was so bad.
>> Is this mean ranking this low or like do you think this is actually like I'm using I'm using my brain here.
>> Okay.
>> Yeah. Uh the last two weeks he's got the equivalent of running back 31 usage. He's third lowest in a rush yards over expected rate according to NextGen stats. They'll try to throw a screen and you will not see a linebacker sniff out a screen faster than when it goes to Ashton Denty. And that's before we get to the Texans defensive line.
>> Yeah, I'm ready to get super excited about every single Raiders offensive lineman that they draft and sign this off.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh Chris Rodriguez is maybe back against the Philadelphia Eagles and checks in as your running back 34.
>> First of all, whoever the commander running back is, don't have a huge projection for them. You got Philadelphia, you're projected for fewer than 20 points. Uh, and it's been a rotation. I'm assuming Chris Rodriguez is going to return because he was questionable and I tried to give it a go this last game. Um, and at the same time, even if he does come back, it would make sense to me that you would want to see more of Bill Crosky merit before the season runs out here. So, I think it's going to be a full-blown committee on a team projected for 20 points. So, have almost zero interest in Cross Rodriguez. If he does miss, I would rank Bill somewhere around like Jaylen Warren, kind of in that range.
>> Okay, I'm just going to go through the next two really quickly because we've already talked about the lead running backs. Chuba passing down work. Uh had a nice move on a screen this past week and then Deon Singleary is still playing about 66% of the short yardage goal line touches, but uh has lost a ton of the work between the 20s.
>> Yeah, almost all the work goes uh away from him now. And then this last week, Jackson Dart had designed quarterback touches at the goal line. So that was not the case the weeks before that. So move Deon Singleary down quite a bit. Kareem Hunt still on the list, running back 37. This is at the Tennessee Titans. I mean, in a different universe, you know, you draft for the fantasy football semi-finals. You have Patrick Mahomes and you have Rashi Rice and both those guys are gone. And now you have Gardenner Mchu leading the way with a uh split backfield and uh like Travis Kelce on his retirement tour.
>> Yeah.
>> Catching passes.
>> Yeah. There's nothing to watch here. Um I hope Kelsey like actually says he's retiring because that would be kind of fun to like know that that's the case and they kind of make that interesting. Otherwise, the Chiefs offense has zero interest um
>> from me. And Macho is like playing a lot more now. Yeah, the Titans are horrific on defense and obviously their best is Jeffrey Simmons up front and stuffing the run, but despite all that and the corners and everyone, a 20 and a half team total here for the for the Chiefs.
>> Not good.
>> Season low for Cream Hunt and usage last week, too.
>> Okay, we already talked about Raandre. So, now I'll give you the platform because during this episode, Devin Neil has been ruled out for the New Orleans Saints with his hamstring injury. So that means we have either Evan Hull, the, you know, draft crush of many in the fantasy community back in like the 2021 NFL draft, or Audreame, our guy, the Boulder with legs, uh, who looked quite spry last week going in a straight line.
>> Well, he's well rested, that's for damn sure. Audrey Esme hasn't got a touch in a year and a half, so he should be as spry as he can be. Um, have we checked in on Alvin Chimera's passport? Is he back from Cabo? Does he have any interest in playing again? He didn't he wasn't placed on injured reserve.
>> Um I mean Okay.
>> Can I pitch you Audrey as
>> at worst behind Chris Rodriguez here?
>> Yeah, let's put him ahead of Chris Rodriguez for all I care. We we'll get this sorted out by the time Sunday rolls around. At least I will. Um Audrey Est I thought was like very clearly athletically limited, but for somebody that can't like run in a straight line, I did think that he had like a kind of a nice one step to him. We'll see here. We'll see. I think there are worse players in the league than Audrey Guest and he was out of the league.
>> Yeah, the NFL seems to very much disagree with us, which is maybe a problem.
>> Also, did you see who um had a workout with the Kansas City Chiefs?
>> Oh god, tell me.
>> Damen Martinez. That guy.
>> Oh, that's when you know it's not looking great. You're desperate.
>> Just a workout. All right, Zack Sharon closes this one out. And that's it. That does it for us on the running back rankings. Um, more rankings episodes in terms of wide receivers and quarterbacks and tight ends will be posted on this channel before Sunday. Uh, shout out to all of you for watching and for listening and go play on Underdog. Support us by supporting them.
>> Let's officially move Bree Hall down just because I said I would. Uh, let's put him behind Tony Pard.
>> Okay, you know what that means? Michael Carter, top 24 running. That was the whole point of the show.
>> Uh, shout out to all of you. Again, if you're in 40 states, maybe six months ago, you couldn't play an underdog. Now you can. Yes. Go and play. Go and check it out. Go and try the app for the very first time. Use promo code the show. Play five bucks and we'll give you 75 bucks in bonus cash. Up the villa. We'll talk to you'all soon. See you.