Transcription
Yes, Bitcoin is as cheap as ever compared to gold. The so-called Oversold Oscillator recently marked a record low, and that's despite the fact that the gold price has also fallen in recent weeks. The last time Bitcoin was so extremely oversold against gold, we saw a price rally of 660%, and now, of course, the question is, what are the chances of this story repeating itself, and will we see a strong recovery in Bitcoin in the coming months, and that's exactly what we'll discuss in the current video. [music] A warm welcome to our YouTube channel Kipp. Here, we aim to explain topics like Bitcoin and Co. simply. Yes, before we dive into the topic, a brief reminder about our Blockchain Investor App. There, we keep you updated with daily market reports. We are also there for you during the summer lull. This means if anything important happens in the crypto market, the stablecoin market, or with Clarity, you'll be the first to know in our Blockchain App. So, just take a look. You'll see it's worth it. Back to Bitcoin. No question, Bitcoin is currently relatively weak compared to gold, and this so-called Bitcoin to Gold Ratio measures how many fine ounces of gold you can currently buy with a single Bitcoin. And currently, it looks like you can only buy, in quotation marks, 15.5 or 15.6 fine ounces of gold with one Bitcoin. And this already shows the historical underperformance of Bitcoin at the moment. And if you look at the corresponding oscillator, this Overszillator, it shows a standard deviation of 1.81 compared to the long-term average. And this means that Bitcoin is valued as low or weak against gold as it hasn't been since 2010. The last time Bitcoin was so undervalued against gold was, as mentioned, 15 years ago in 2010, and immediately afterward, Bitcoin was able to gain 660% in the following months. This doesn't necessarily mean it will happen again, but it would be desirable if Bitcoin at least returned to the historical average, which is this zero line we see here in the chart, and the forecast model sees a fair value here. So, this zero line is around $283,000 for Bitcoin. This would mean Bitcoin doesn't even have to rise by 660%, but a price increase of only, in quotation marks, 350% would be enough to return to this zero line, which is, of course, not entirely easy, no question. And this valuation model also has some weaknesses that one should be aware of. If we look at the chart again, we see that these historical weak dips downwards, these outliers downwards in 2020 or in 2022, the Bitcoin to Gold ratio was mainly due to external factors, such as in 2020 the Corona crisis and in 2022 the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX. Even then, Bitcoin was valued very, very low compared to gold. And what's more, if we look at the year 2010, the comparison is flawed, and that's because back then Bitcoin was still a niche with relatively low liquidity and low market capitalization. This means that with a relatively low investment volume, prices could be moved relatively strongly back then, and that's no longer the case today, because today Bitcoin is a trillion-dollar asset. So, pushing the price up by 660% might not be impossible, but it would be very, very difficult to achieve. And what's more, the current weakness of Bitcoin is mainly a strength of gold. So, this imbalance we are currently seeing is mainly due to the strength of gold. The gold price rose massively in the autumn of 2025 to spring of 2026. We had over $5,000 per fine ounce at times. Gold has also corrected in the meantime, but this is currently more of a strength of gold. And this doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin has to catch up. There is no natural law that the price must always return to the average in the long term. Quite the opposite. If the macroeconomic environment changes, meaning if we see persistently high interest rates or geopolitical uncertainties, if there is war continuously, and so on, then it is quite possible that this ratio will remain permanently shifted. In any case, Bitcoin has recently been able to stabilize above the $60,000 mark. And at Fidelity, they believe that Bitcoin is now slowly but surely approaching a price level or support that has functioned relatively well as support over the last 10 years since 2015. And we'll talk about that shortly. First, a brief look at the Bitcoin chart. So, we see the Bitcoin chart in US dollars. The prices are from the crypto exchange Binance, and today is July 14th, Tuesday morning, and we see the Bitcoin price a bit more favorably at over $62,600, after Bitcoin had approached the 50-day line the previous day, which runs at about $64,000, but ultimately failed and bounced off, and is now moving back towards this support at about $59,000 or $60,000. And with that, this support is naturally further endangered, and the big question is now, can Bitcoin stabilize above the $60,000 mark in the summer and break out upwards from this long bear market, which has been running for about 9 months now? In October 2025, Bitcoin marked a record high at over $26,000, and since then we've seen falling prices. Can Bitcoin finally stabilize above $60,000,000 this summer and then start a new upward trend in the second half of the year, breaking out of this downward trend? And that's exactly what we'll look at now. The individual indicators. The trend-following indicator MACD already delivered a bullish crossover in June, thus indicating a further price recovery. However, the MACD is also already showing initial signs of fatigue. The RSI is also weakening here, the Relative Strength Index, so the upward momentum is no longer as strong, and the On-Balance Volume (OBV) is also at the bottom. This is more of a sideways movement, so there's no talk of a new upward trend yet. And this means that large investors are tending to hold back, and we also see this with the Bitcoin ETFs. Although we saw capital inflows at the beginning of July, the picture has since changed again. Especially at the beginning of the week, almost $425 million flowed out of these Bitcoin ETFs again. So, investors are continuing to withdraw from Bitcoin ETFs. Even though we still see slight buying pressure building up for Bitcoin in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), this buying pressure is nowhere near what we saw, for example, in May 2025 or in July of last year. That was this situation here, when Bitcoin rose from about $85,000 to over $100,000. So, we don't see this buying pressure at all yet, and the 30-day momentum seems to be turning downwards again, and that's not a good sign. It suggests that we will test this support at $60,000 or $59,000 again in the coming days. Currently, if we look at the whole thing on a weekly basis, Bitcoin is hanging on this 200-week line. But the problem is, the trend-following indicator MACD on a weekly basis delivered a bearish crossover in mid-June, which indicates further falling prices. So, this support at $60,000 to $59,000 is definitely still in danger. Especially because the trend-following indicator MACD on a monthly basis is still bearish here. We see a sharply falling curve after this bearish crossover in mid or early October, and therefore I assume that this consolidation will last at least another one to two, if not three or four months. I only see stabilization in the fall, and that could mean that we will see weaker prices in the coming weeks. However, some analysts, like those at Fidelity, believe that we have now reached an important support line, and this was a significant accumulation zone in the past. And at Bitwise, they also assume that Bitcoin has almost reached its bottom. And that's exactly what we'll talk about briefly now. So, Bitcoin has recently been able to stabilize above the $60,000 mark, but Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet. This support at $58,000 or $59,000 is, of course, still in danger, especially since these ETF outflows continue unabated. Nevertheless, Bitwise Chief Information Officer Matt Hogan remains optimistic. He points out that the sentiment in the industry is at an absolute low. Sentiment is worse than ever, and that could be a good contrarian indicator. Especially since companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets have continued to buy recently. In the second quarter alone, they accumulated over 130,000 Bitcoins, primarily Strategy and MetaPlanet, but Strategy in particular seems to no longer want or be able to buy, as the company's stock price and this vehicle stock, this Strecha, has recently come under immense pressure because the market simply no longer trusts Strategy's financial construct to be able to meet these massive interest and dividend payments of over $1.7 billion per year that Strategy has to make. And that's why Strategy has also recently paused its Bitcoin purchases and instead sold its own shares to raise $477 million to increase its financial reserves to $3 billion, simply to restore market confidence. But this could also mean that Streini will be out as a buying engine in the coming weeks. As I said, Matt Hogan from Bitwise remains optimistic. He points out, among other things, that Bitcoin's market penetration continues to rise. For example, with the online broker Charles Schwab. The number 1 in the US recently rolled out Bitcoin on its or through its Trade platform. This means over 8.6 million customers have access to Bitcoin trading. Furthermore, he also refers to the important crypto law that is in the state legislature, namely this Clarity, which is currently stuck in the US Senate, and it doesn't look good for this law to pass this year because the political camps are simply too divided. But Hogan doesn't see this negatively. He points out that it is rather the banks that rely on this law to stop the advance of stablecoins. But if this law doesn't pass, then crypto companies could continue to benefit from this relatively friendly, regulatory environment and continue to develop positively. And on top of that, July is seasonally a relatively strong month for Bitcoin. On average, Bitcoin rises by 7.7% in July. And if you look at the chart, you can see that in the last 13 years, 9 years were very positive for Bitcoin in the month of July, and this could contribute to Bitcoin showing further strength and ultimately contributing to bottom formation. Juren Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, also sees the bottom near, referring to his Power Law Support line. So, in the last 10 years, Bitcoin has always found its bottom at the lower boundary of this line, this corridor. This is essentially the mathematical bottom. It is currently around $58,000, and he already sees Bitcoin in the buying zone for long-term investors. However, he doesn't want to call the bottom yet, because according to Timmer, there is currently a lack of global liquidity. So, the money supply M2 is not growing strongly at the moment, so there is a lack of liquidity in the market, and therefore he doesn't see the bottom reached yet, but that could change very quickly in the coming months. A brief conclusion to this whole topic. So, I also think that Bitcoin is already in a bottoming phase, but it is not yet complete. I see it like Glassnode, and what's interesting in this regard is that the first traders in the derivatives market are slowly moving to the long side for Bitcoin, meaning they are cautiously betting on rising prices again. At least the put-call ratio has recently fallen to 0.56, the lowest level this year. But I also think that the trigger point is missing, be it through more liquidity or through the Clarity Act, an important crypto law that is currently stuck in the US Senate, and it doesn't look good for this law at the moment, that must be said clearly. And this could mean that if the US Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates again in the second half of the year to combat inflation, then this Bitcoin bear market, which traditionally lasts between 8 and 13 months, could last a bit longer this time. One should be prepared for that, but overall, I see it like Fidelity or Juren Timmer. Prices below $60,000 I would consider a buying opportunity for long-term investors, but as I said, this is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Then I'm naturally interested in your opinion on this whole topic. Do you already see the bottom in Bitcoin this summer, or do you believe that this bear market will only end next year? Please comment briefly below. Feel free to comment at length. As I said, I will look at all comments and gladly discuss them with you. Otherwise, I would be happy about a thumbs up if you liked the video and found it helpful, and you can of course also leave a subscription and share my videos with other friends. I would be very happy about that, because that's how my channel can continue to grow. Next Thursday, my colleague Philip will be here with an exciting topic. We will hopefully see each other again next week. Until then, I say thank you very much for watching. Take care. See you in the next video.