Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about BTC which is trying to set a bottom. Is it validated? What would I like to see? We will see all that in detail, of course. Then, we will of course talk about the land and three altcoins that I asked to analyze. I noted SE, BGB, and Myx. And of course, we will talk about the US market. So, I start, of course, with BTC. Uh, we are still at this support level since the big dump we had. And what is interesting is that we are trying to set a small bottom. For the moment, we see it with this buying reaction today. We see that we are in a bottom where each time we retest the lows of each day here, and each time we have a buying reaction. We see that it is a zone that is defended. Anyway, technically it is a clean level, we see it well. It is a level that acted as resistance. We broke it, support, pardon, we broke it, it acted as resistance, and now we are coming back to lean on it to act as support again. So yes, the zone is very good, and it is a zone where to have an interesting risk-reward, even from a probability point of view, we are in a good zone to take longs with, of course, an invalidation if we settle below this level. Because I remind you, I am the first and I remain the first to tell you that if we start to go back below 110,900 dollars, globally, to have acceptance, already, below this resistance zone, which would act as resistance if we break it, as support. If we start to have settlement below this level, I would not like, uh, well, I would not like to see that for the rest of the market. Why? Because it would indicate to us that we are re-flipping this support level into resistance, and that we would have a high chance of settling below it to go lower. And truly, the big confirmation, for me, is if we really have a daily close below 111,000 dollars, where yes, it would clearly be something, well, bearish, because we would break this impulsive candle that broke this resistance zone. So for the moment, as I say, we are coming back to look for a very interesting support level. We are working on it. For the moment, we have not broken it. OK, for me, it is not a break. Some will say "Yes, it is a break because we went 2 or 3 dollars below." No, for me, a break is really OK. Either we have a strong candle, OK, a very strong red candle like we have here, but again, or we slide below and we have no buying reaction. That is to say, we continue to make red candle after red candle after red candle. And then, we do that. Then, I tell you OK, it's broken. For the moment, what I see is that each time we retest the low of, uh, the day, OK, this low, this low, and so on, we have a buying reaction. So as I say, we are working on this level. Now, we have not set a bottom. Why have we not set a bottom? Because I would like to see settlement above the 15-minute tunnel and really break this high. If we break this high, OK, then we have an inversion that would be quite good in the very short term. We would have a 15-minute that would be oriented upwards. Decreasing higher highs on the 1-hour because for the moment, what are we? Well, we are simply in a range that is preceded by a bearish dynamic, preceded by a bearish impulse. So technically, we have a higher chance of continuing downwards. I like the pattern we have made, uh, here. Now, it would have been more interesting during a US market opening or during this kind of phase where there is much more volume, but it remains interesting nonetheless. We simply have a taking of lows at this level, immediately followed by a buying reaction. You see, some tell me "Yes, Nico, what are these buying reactions you are talking about? Sometimes you mention some. What are they? Well, these are buying reactions. It's a low candle with a strong green candle. It can be here in a slightly smaller format. We will take the low. We even take this low here, I believe. To see, hop, you see this wick here takes the lows below this low and below this low. Direct buying reaction. This is typical of what I want to see when I tell you OK, we locate our entries, we locate our zones that interest us to enter positions, and then what we want to see is a buying reaction. That's what we want to see, simply. So, uh, for the moment, BTC, I remain globally, uh, bullish in the medium term, you know. My invalidations, I don't change them overnight. I'll put the chart back up, well. Hop. My invalidations, I don't change them overnight. I remind you, my long-term invalidations are settlement below 107,000 dollars, and especially below 100,000 dollars. I have, let's say, a double long-term invalidation, rather partial here, and not total either, but again, if we break 100,000 dollars, that's really long-term. Why? Because this first invalidation indicates to me that we are validating a market top, an M top, if we close weekly below this level. And the second is the settlement below the psychological figure of 100,000 dollars and the reintegration of this consolidation zone. That's long-term. In the medium term, well, it's simply below this level. Now, if we start to settle below this level, we rebreak this support level and we simply flip it into resistance, and especially we settle below this impulsive candle. Then, it's the same, I would simply have, well, a confirmation that there are no buyers manifesting. So for the moment, as I said, we are at a support level and we are rather in a zone where it is more interesting to look for, uh, longs in this kind of context, that is to say, at a support level. Most of those who were super bullish here, well, why are you bullish on resistance? Whereas when we retrace here, you become bearish. It's the opposite that needs to be done. And the majority of people get this wrong. When we are at resistance, everyone shouts "That's it, we have to long, it's going to break, to the moon." However, when we retrace, it's then "Ah no, we'll wait, it's delicate here." No, either we wait for level breaks, OK, like here where we have a concrete break, but when we are at a resistance zone that doesn't break, and I was the first to tell you, you know, at this level, I told you be careful, we have a high wick here representing more than 50% of the candle followed by a bearish engulfing. At this level, I was the first to tell you, you watch my video, I told you be careful, there is a small signal that should not be overlooked, the fact that we are coming back to test a resistance zone and we are making this kind of, this kind of pattern. Here, as I said, we are correcting, we are coming back to test the lower extremity, and well, we could potentially do the same thing. A low wick, OK, followed by an engulfing, and well, that would be an interesting signal to revisit what? The upper extremity, simply. So for me, very simply, my invalidation on BTC is if, in the medium term, we settle below this level, which is the same invalidation I had when we went back below this level and I saw that we were rejected. OK. Well, I got out. To get back in at this level, it's not a problem. But at least, I made the decision to reduce my risk, reduce my exposure to have a lower risk in case we go lower. And well, it will be the same here. Uh, there you go. And then, otherwise, uh, if we have retracements, we have a good zone at 114,000 dollars, well, that was already a level I was watching before. Why? Because I had an H4 tunnel with a weekly pivot point here. Well, here we have a good zone as well. Someone who wants to take shorts, who wants to watch. Here, we can watch how the market reacts in this zone. Tunnel 1, H4 tunnel, weekly pivot point, a bit of the psychological figure of 114,000 dollars. Potentially, if we go there, it will be a zone for me that will not be easy to pass. Uh, there you go on BTC, quite, quite quick, there's not much to say. Here we are trying to settle above the 15-minute tunnel, and it's rather, uh, not bad. OK. What we are doing, what we are doing. Typically here, a 15-minute tunnel that acted as resistance. Hop, at this level. Tac. You see, it's quite clean. I love these double confirmations. Vegas tunnel, uh, 15-minute tunnel with a daily pivot point. Ah, it's, uh, it's to the dollar, so it's not always like that, of course, but here it's to the dollar. You see, these are very good selling reactions, likewise to position oneself when one is in a bearish dynamic. And here, it's a fact, we are in a bearish dynamic. Here, I would not specifically look for shorts since we are settling above the 15-minute tunnel. Unless you say "OK, I don't use a tunnel, I trade this as a, as a range." And if I trade this as a range, well, we are at an upper extremity. We are, yes, in a good zone in that case to look for shorts. After, it depends on everyone's strategy. Uh, if I move on now to Ether, so Ether, volatility is very low on Ether. We see that we are compressing well. It has corrected well, that's a fact. It has come back to test its lower extremity, it has broken its H4 tunnel, and there is a bit less momentum, a bit less support. And we see it on this side, the ETH BTC pair is bearish. We have broken the H4 tunnel, which means that we have a loss of momentum, you know, in the medium term, on ETH BTC and on ETH USDT. Is it for this reason that in the long term, that's it, it's the end? No, I told you, likewise, my long-term invalidation on Ether is if we start to settle below 3900. Now, if we go back below 3009, yeah, no, that would be ugly. That would be ugly. We would be reintegrating a range, and we would have a high chance of coming back to test the middle of the range, globally, 2008-2009, which for the moment is not scenario number 1, the most likely scenario. But there you go, it's always even the least likely scenario, well, we must take it into account. Why? Because if it happens and we haven't taken it into account, we are not ready. We don't make the right decisions. It's our emotions then that will make the decisions, and often they are not the best decisions. So that's why, we must always be ready for all eventualities on Ether. Now, what bothers me about Ether is that technically we could draw a range like this, but here we have a low that was really low. So we can also take a range like this. So sometimes it's, that's trading, it's never precise, precise. We can take a volume profile at this level, and we can say globally, well, we are at the level of the value area. OK, which is a good zone to look for longs. Generally in a range, we look for shorts at the value high and we look for longs at the value low. Either we are aggressive, that is to say, we position ourselves now, OK, as buyers with an invalidation if, on daily, we close globally below 4050-4030, because globally we would break our range downwards. OK, so enter here, invalidation slightly lower. With a TP at the upper extremity. OK? So that would give us at this level something like this. Invalidation globally on daily close if we settle below. You see, I don't put, I don't put a tight stop loss at this level or on a wick we will be triggered. I especially put a stop loss on close. Now, sometimes I've been told, yes, sometimes you talk about stop loss on close, what does that mean? Well, it means I don't specifically put a stop loss on the exchange, but I know that in my plan, if we close below a level, then I close my position on my side manually. This is something I will do on swing trading or long-term trading, not on intraday. I don't function like that on intraday because there is much more volatility, it's much more delicate. But there you go, we can have this type of entry with a TP at the upper extremity and a partial TP in the middle of the range. Someone who wants to be a bit more cautious, well, they can simply wait for a reintegration of the value area. OK, to then look for the value high. This gives a less important risk-reward but a higher success rate because generally when we reintegrate our value area high or our value area low, we have a high chance of reaching the opposite extremity. We see it well here, we go above the value high, we reintegrate it, well, we go to the opposite extremity, we reintegrate it, opposite extremity. This is classic in a range, generally when we reintegrate a value low or a value high, it's to go to the opposite extremity. So one who is much more aggressive but will have a higher risk-reward, the other who will be much less aggressive with a lower risk-reward but a higher probability of winning this trade. And here some will tell me, well, so Nico, what's best? In fact, it just depends on your profile, it just depends on your psychology. In fact, the difference is that with this type of strategy, you will have a win rate, a success rate that will be much lower. Maybe your success rate will be 25%, 25-30%. OK? Which is possible to be profitable with 25-30%. Why? Because you have a higher risk-reward. When you lose 100, on the other side, you gain 400, 500, 600. OK? But you have to have the psychology to say "OK, well, out of 100 trades, you only win 25." That is to say, out of 4 trades, you lose three and you win one. And some will not have this psychology and will need to have a higher risk-reward to potentially aim for 50-50. OK? A 50% success rate. Winning one trade out of two. It's possible. OK? And it depends on each person. There is, I can, I can create a tailor-made setup that works for me, I give it to someone else, it won't work for them because the drawdown phases will be much harder to accept, the loss phases likewise, and conversely, some can give me a setup that I cannot tolerate according to my psychology. Uh, there you go, on this side, on Ethereum, at the level of the Western market, well, for me, we remain in an upward trend. Nothing, nothing serious. We have a small, small correction, it was, it was Tuesday. Uh, we remain in an upward trend. If I put moving averages here, we see it well anyway, the trend, we can, those who are fans of trendlines, well, they can put trendlines like this. After, I don't like trendlines because, then, is it broken? Do we put it like this? Do we include the wicks, the candles? I hate trendlines, it's never. After, you have to have your own fixed rules. You can be profitable with trendlines, there's no problem, but I prefer to use tunnels. Yes, it's much more interesting. An H4 tunnel that shows us the medium-term trend, still upward, and a 15-minute tunnel that links the short-term trend with a 1-hour that is in between, between the short-term and medium-term trend. We would have to find a name for the in-between, if you have ideas, between short and medium term, what we could have, but 4 hours is always medium term. I especially watch the H4 on this, and the 15-minute especially for the short term. So here we could say that we have lost the 15-minute, to see if we reintegrate it or if it acts as resistance. OK, but globally, there you go, we remain in an upward flow, in an upward trend. So nothing serious about that. And why some, I received a message on Discord, someone told me "Yes, why do you often watch the Nasdaq, the S&P? What's the point?" Well, what you need to understand is that we have a good correlation between the S&P 500 and cryptos. If I compare, well, here I took the Nasdaq. If I take Nasdaq BTC, well, here the correlation is quite significant. Can I change the color to make it more visible? Let's make the line white, let's make it a bit thicker. Hop, you see 2021, market top in November 2021, market top also on the Nasdaq. Bearish trend, bear market on both assets. OK, risk-on assets, what are called risk-on assets. Bottoms at the same time, you see, bottom here in November-December 2022, bottom likewise on the S&P 500. Upward trend. You see here, market top here from December 2024, January 2025, market top likewise, bottoms at the same time, bullish rally. You see, there is not a 100% correlation, of course, but there is still a strong correlation, and it's quite normal, and it's even more correlated with the arrival of ETFs, and also with the arrival of Donald Trump who also talks about cryptos. That's why we keep an eye on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Now, regarding the altcoins requested for analysis, I'll continue a bit. We'll do three. I'm just checking if I have a big list afterwards. I'll be missing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, about ten to analyze. So you can put them in the comments, but just keep in mind that I analyze three per video. So, there's a high chance they will be analyzed in about 4 more videos. So, that's it, where are we? Let's delete everything. Well, that's rather, rather good. And I remember, I talked about it not too long ago, the fact of having had this reintegration. OK, it's very interesting since we are reintegrating an interesting level by making a reversal pattern, a W structure. We break here and we pullback the neckline. And for me, this neckline is holding. So what I observe is here, we are in a range preceded by a bullish impulse, preceded by a bottom. This range has a higher chance of breaking upwards. OK, now it needs to take off. I don't really like ranges that linger too often just above, uh, a bottom, just below, well, just above, yes, a bottom that has been, that has been set. Generally, I prefer bottoms where it takes off, pulls back, and takes off again, not where it lingers for a long time. Otherwise, these are bottoms that are much, much more complicated where there is a lack of momentum. Logically, a bottom takes off immediately. Well, we have an EX tunnel acting as support. We see it well, it acted as resistance. We broke it, we lean on it once, twice, three times, four times, even five times, it holds. We shouldn't settle below it, and especially reintegrate this level. Because if we start to do that, we would have a high chance here of reintegrating an important level and going to test the opposite extremity. That's not what we want to see generally. If we start to reintegrate this type of range, this type of reversal pattern, we go back to test the opposite extremity. It's very common. It's very common that we set a bottom. You see this as a range, this kind of reversal pattern. There you go, you see, it's like here. Hop, we have our range, we have our reversal pattern at this level. Hop, this level, and globally we have our range which is here. Well, we pullback once here, we do a pullback, we take off again. A pullback and we take off again. But very often when we reintegrate and we accept, yes, it's to go to the opposite extremity. Is it to then break or take liquidity as we had here? That's difficult to know. But, for the moment, there is more, there is more bullish interest on SE from a risk-reward point of view and even from a probability point of view. However, if we reintegrate this level, you have to get out because, as I say, the objective is to go to the opposite extremity. Now, if I put a Fibonacci here, 0.382, which acts as resistance, not surprising, it's our first stop. If we start to break it, there's a high chance of reaching 0.1118 which is in a very good confluence here since we have our 0.18. From a price action point of view, we see it well, it's a level here that acted as resistance, and especially it's the psychological figure of 50 cents. So on SE, clearly a good big TP at the level of 0.8 seems interesting to me. Here is for SE. Then I was asked about BGB and Myx. So BGB, we'll take the chart from Crypto.com here. Why do I take Crypto.com? For those who don't know, here you have different data providers, what we call them. These are globally exchanges. Crypto.com, I take it because generally it's the one where we have the most, we have the most charts, simply. H, well, we have pumped well. OK, anyway, exchange tokens generally are always tokens that pump well. OK, it's quite rare that they don't pump. We think of BNB, BGB, we can even take Crow. Crow, which is the token of the exchange, which has pumped well recently. Uh, there you go, often these are tokens that make their rally during a bull market. The problem is that we are too high. I cannot position myself on this. I take the lowest point, the highest point. It's complicated, frankly. Uh, uh, you know how precise I am in my entries for the long term. I like to come back to test at least the long-term reload zone between 0.18 and 0.786 Fibonacci. But here I'm talking about high capitalization tokens because often lower capitalization altcoins will touch 0.880. You take the entire bear market that happened in 2022-2023, they reached 0.86 on a lot of altcoins. Here, the difference is that we are not in a bear market. Uh, we can be here on a trend continuation pattern if we start to break free from this level. If we pass 5.5, yeah, we can be, as I said, on a trend continuation pattern since we would globally be in a sideways phase preceded by a big pump. The daily tunnel perfectly acts as support. You see, these moving averages, they are magnificent. They allow us to have a very good reference point when we have a retracement. We hold this level. Now, currently, we are at the top of a range. We are not in the right zone to position ourselves. Either we look for, and we always look to position ourselves at a lower extremity. OK. This type of pattern, as we had at this level, at this level several, several times. Here, already from a long-term point of view, we have pumped well, and in addition, we are in a range with a very close upper extremity. It is always delicate to position oneself at this level. So, frankly, this is a token I would not touch personally. Now, if you have been positioned for a while, well, I hope you have taken your profits at least partially because when we go from, let's say, even if you have an entry of 1 dollar, we are already at a x5 or even x7 at the peak, x8 even. Uh, there you go, logically we are in profit-taking zones. If I put here, hop, Fibonacci extensions, 118, 100% extension between 11.5 and 13 dollars, these are good zones also for taking profits in case we make a new ATH. And the last crypto, Myx. So, tac. OK. Quite, quite recent token that has pumped well. There's nothing to do on this. Clearly, there's nothing to do. Now, there's the investment side and the trading side. On the investment side, there's nothing to do. From the moment we make such a performance, we can't, it's FOMO. I can't, I can't enter here. I'm talking about long-term investment. A position I will keep long-term. No, it's too much, and it's not a professional entry. Now, if I look a bit more at the short to medium term, however, we need invalidations because otherwise the volatility is high here between the highest point and the lowest point. You see, we are at -50%. That happens in a few days. So here, we are coming back to test good zones. We are coming back to test the H4 tunnel. What is needed here is to really compress and break this 15-minute tunnel and this 1-hour tunnel, break upwards as we had here. You see, at that moment, we compress, we break the 15-minute and the 1-hour, and then it takes off. And here, there is enough to make performance in the short term. Here, we are at 55%. If we retrace, we come back to test the 0.8 of this movement, here, hop. Break, well, 40%, if we push a bit, 50%. In the short term, there is enough volatility to make performance, but for the moment, we remain in a short-term bearish flow, but yes, in the long term, it's too delicate to position oneself on this. We need to wait for big retracements, we need to come back to test really low levels, 2 to 3 dollars at a minimum to enter on charts like this. Moreover, it's a chart that is really recent, and we could be here on a pump and dump. So, there you go, there has been a small structure, I think, that has been built. Yes, a small, small structure that has been built. So that's already rather good. It's better than a direct pump. But yes, the chart is too young. There you go, I'll leave you with this. I've said everything I wanted to say from my side. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.