Transcription
Today, we're doing a big update on the altcoin market in correlation with Bitcoin. We'll revisit BTC to correlate it with the ADs. I really want to give you my opinion on the market's future. Do we have the possibility of an altcoin market explosion? Conversely, is the biggest part unfortunately behind us? This is what we're going to try to see today. Also, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available and free. You keep 100% of the gains, 21 TP for the LIM algorithms last week, but also here in terms of performance, we've achieved great results over the last few quarters. Here you have all the results with notably all the TP, 305 TP in the 3rd quarter for the IM, 318 TP in the 2nd quarter. In short, we've done a big update for access. It's free, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All the links concerning my content will lead you to this page. You just have to click right here on this link to register on Bitgate and our partner link. And then, you just have to click here. It's a short video that explains absolutely everything about configuring the algos. How to get the mentorship? My complete training is right here. There are 24 video courses that will train you from A to Z and also access to the VIP Alcoin. It's in this VIP Alcoin on Discord where I will share the best opportunities on Alts when I see them. Right here in VIP crypto and you have the altcoin VIP here. So to come here on Oders against BTC, as you know, it's an index that I watch a lot. It allows us to see the reflection of the altcoin market against BTC. And so we can see that since approximately September 13th, so mid-September, we've had an inversion structure here that is causing us to enter a small bearish dynamic, and since then, the altcoin market has been underperforming Bitcoin. That is to say, the vast majority of assets are underperforming BTC. What does that mean? It means that on this bullish leg of Bitcoin, many cryptocurrencies have not managed to make a new high. And so, you have to look at the dynamics of your assets. That is to say, you simply take BTC, and I'll put it here, and then you look at how your altcoin is behaving. So here, for example, I'm taking the first one on the list, ATOM. So here we have Bitcoin at the top, and ATOM at the bottom. We can see that on this BTC pump, ATOM did not follow at all, and we see that it is already engaged in a bearish dynamic. So, for example, keep this in mind because I'll come back to it just after. But in any case, we see that in terms of dynamics, it's not great. If we take XRP, for example, it's more or less the same. You see, we are still on descending highs for now, and despite this Bitcoin push, we haven't managed to make a new leg. And so this is what translates this altcoin market that is underperforming Bitcoin, and we see this a bit everywhere, even on Dogecoin, Dot, well, basically almost all cryptocurrencies are in this dynamic. There are very few. For example, LTC, we see that here, perhaps interesting. We can look at NISWAP, it's very bad. You see here, despite this big BTC push, it slightly bounced to retest this FVG, but it's already going down again. So it's a much weaker altcoin market. And so, apart from assets like BNB which are capturing a lot of momentum currently, you see BNB has greatly appreciated this BTC push, there aren't many cryptocurrencies that liked it. And so what you need to understand is that BTC is at a key level. Firstly, it's on the trendline, I've been talking about it for a long time, and I'm talking about it again, and it's important. We are still on this trendline here that we can't break. I'm telling you again, as long as we don't break this trendline, there won't be any acceleration on Bitcoin, and it needs to be broken. And roughly, what can launch a climax run phase on BTC and reattract people to this market, investors, speculators, is simply to have an acceleration of Bitcoin. And in fact, if you want, Bitcoin's volatility interests investors because, in fact, if you want, tomorrow, if any altcoin makes a 10x, people don't care. Okay? Why? Because roughly tomorrow, imagine, well, Aster, did anyone around you talk about Aster, for example? I'm not talking about people who are already in crypto, but really people who know nothing. No. So it won't attract retail, it won't attract liquidity. On the other hand, tomorrow, when Bitcoin starts to accelerate, the whole world talks about it, you have altcoins that perform, and then people hear about altcoins, and then it launches a snowball effect, a snowball effect, sorry, a snowball effect where lots of people arrive, and the price starts to explode on Bitcoin, on altcoins, and so on and so forth. In fact, a ton of liquidity arrives. And in fact, if you look at Bitcoin's current volatility, well, that's why people don't care. I mean, tomorrow Bitcoin can even go up to $200,000 if it continues to have such low volatility, it won't interest people. However, this structure here that I just showed you, if we are to break this famous trendline, that's when people will become interested in the market again. And that's the most important thing. That's why I'm really telling you, we need to break this trendline because this trendline will be the trigger for an acceleration of volatility. And when volatility increases on Bitcoin, that's when people become interested. And I just wanted to go on TradingView and type BV 24h. Here, I'll remove Bitcoin, I'll switch to daily, and then I'll let you consult Bitcoin's volatility peaks. And then you'll see that people were very interested in the market at that time. For example, I remember February, March, April 2024, when there was a lot of interest in the market. That is to say, people were really hyped, the market was boiling, there were pumps on almost all altcoins every day during this period of February, March, April when the ETFs arrived on BTC because volatility increased on Bitcoin, and anyway, you just need to go to something like Google Trends, type crypto, and you'll see that there were interest peaks here. We can do it together. Hop, Google Trends. Click. And that's why, in fact, if we break the trendline, we will enter what is called a Climax run. Climax run is an acceleration of price, an acceleration of volatility, and that's when we will have hype on altcoins, and why not a price acceleration. So here, if I take you over the last five years when we type crypto, we see that here, for example, look, February, March, there was a peak right here, people are interested in the market. You type Bitcoin as well. Here, look, February, March, there was a peak. Then there are Trump's elections. So there was a peak again, and then there was a recent peak in August. But well, people aren't very interested. Altcoins. Here, if we look, there was a peak in February-March, there was a peak in November-December. Well, honestly, I don't understand this peak. I don't know if bots boosted it because I don't really understand this peak. I really didn't see any interest. I really think there was a, I don't know, I don't know if it was a bot attack or something else that wrote Altcoin. There wasn't even any altcoin that brought attention to the market. Honestly, I don't really understand this peak. For me, in terms of interest, there's nothing to compare with what we had in December. So I think this peak shouldn't be paid too much attention to. This is very, very suspicious. Especially since it dropped so suddenly. I'm more inclined to think it might have been a bot attack on search engines to inflate the data. Honestly, I don't know. But I find it very strange. However, here we see that at every Bitcoin volatility peak, it interests people. Okay? It interests people, and that's completely normal. Well, this isn't the best indicator to show you this because, well, TradingView is already glitching a bit, but you understand, when volatility increases on Bitcoin, it pleases the altcoin market, and that's normal, and so, that's why Bitcoin is currently at an extremely key level. TradingView has started to glitch, I'll just refresh the chart. Hop, hoping it works because it's not my connection. There, it was TradingView. Also on Bitcoin, we are on an order block. What you need to understand is that this is an order block. I'm telling you, it's the last order block we've seen since this one. There was one here that we didn't break, we got rejected, we reformed one here. And you can see that when this order block became a breaker block, the market accelerated strongly. This is the last bullish weekly breaker we've had on the market. And so, you see the big price increase here. Here, you see that we are simply at the contact of the trendline and at the contact of the order block. That is to say, if I take the wick, we can see that we have a liquidity grab, but there isn't a breaker block yet if we take the wick. Okay? Personally, I like to take the candle bodies, but here I'm taking the wick because for me, this is where the buy stops are, and this is where it should really accelerate because the trendline is also there. But we see that we are at the contact of this OB, and so if the order block rejects us, I'm telling you, it's a top for BTC. Okay, not a cycle end top. I'm preparing a video on that again, but in my opinion, it will herald a bearish swing at least until this low. So we'll have to accept the fact that Bitcoin might retest its lows. Altcoins won't appreciate this, as I showed you just before, the market was struggling despite the big BTC push. So you can imagine that if BTC forms a bearish leg here and reclaims the stops below $107,000 or even $105,000, the market will not appreciate it at all. Especially the altcoin market which is already struggling. We see assets, well, Aptos is a bit different, but when we took things like Filecoin, well, we see that on the recent Bitcoin rise, it didn't perform at all. So if Bitcoin goes back below its support at $107,000, it's highly likely that something like Filecoin, unfortunately, will simply retest its lows here, probably. So that's why this breakout is necessary. And so now, what we need to look at is also dominance, that is to say, altcoin dominance. And so, as I showed you just before, we have this bearish structure that has formed, and since then, we've been in a small bearish dynamic for altcoins against Bitcoin. So, that is to say, if Bitcoin fails to form its breaker and gets rejected and comes back to test $107,000, given that we are already in a bearish dynamic here, altcoins will simply suffer. If Bitcoin forms its breaker block, is it possible to know what will happen? It's impossible. We just have to wait and see how the market reacts. I gave you a small update this morning in which I explained that on BTC, there was a small bearish structure that formed on H4. It's nothing dramatic, but it's worth noting. The break of the last low here marks an inversion in price behavior. A price that went up like this and broke the last low can indicate the start of a bearish dynamic, but it's the only technical element we have in the short term. Okay? We might be entering a bearish dynamic on the 4-hour chart, but it's not the ultimate rejection signal. And so, this is what explains that we are well within this bearish dynamic for Alts. And I also remind you that on ODER, which is really the most interesting index for analyzing the Alt market, in my opinion, it is still within this Weekly FVG. And the problem is this huge divergence, we've been talking about it for a long time. That is to say, right here, we have a Bitcoin that is below its trendline and at the contact of its order block which has taken its stops, and we also have here an altcoin market that is in this bearish gap. And this is what translates this divergence. I've been talking about it for a long time, but we have a BTC market making new highs, and here we have an altcoin market that is struggling, that hasn't made new highs. And the question is, well, imagine that the top of this swing is here on this bullish leg, and that Bitcoin comes to retest, I don't know, I'm saying something stupid, let's say the weekly fair value gap. Well, the question is, how far will this altcoin market retrace, knowing that it hasn't managed to make a new high? The theory would be that we will retest the lows here. So there will be a mega opportunity there. But well, I'm going too far for now. That's not what interests us the most. The ultimate signal is the break of the bullish trendline on Bitcoin. The one I showed you. So the trendline of the last two cycles. So I'll redraw it. Well, it's not that, but you understand. And also here on an index like Oders, the break of this FVG. Once we break the trendline on Bitcoin and this FVG, the target on the ATH is the 2024 high, sorry. And then, why not the ATH? So there is an appreciation of the altcoin market. But if you have a Bitcoin that gets rejected again on its trendline and doesn't form its breaker and comes to purge the stops here, what happens here? Well, the market rejects the FVG once again, and it means that Bitcoin simply continues to rise and rise and rise, but Oders doesn't follow. So there's a risk of Oders retracing more strongly than Bitcoin. So an altcoin market that gets shaken more than BTC, and that's the most important thing. And also, the, the, the, the, the key level on Oders is here. It's the last Weekly low. For example, we see that we are in this bullish dynamic on Alts, no problem. So this is a bullish dynamic. No problem here, everyone sees it clearly. I'll switch to a close line, maybe we'll see better, but we see that we are calmly in our bullish dynamic. If we were to lose the last low, the last low which for me is here, knowing that in addition, there is a small FVG. So for me, this gives even more weight to this low. If Oders breaks this low here, then there's a chance that it's a top signal and that, well, we've finished this rebound, perhaps in the form of a bear flag, for example. If we try to draw it like this, something like this. Okay, and that this bear flag is resolving downwards, and that it's actually more indicative of a bearish continuation. That's why we shouldn't break this low. So going back below 280 billion on Oders would start to be dangerous. We shouldn't go back below these levels. And especially, we need Bitcoin to break its trendline. But it's simple, if Bitcoin doesn't break its trendline, don't expect anything from the altcoin market, nothing will happen, and unfortunately, the most probable scenario will be a decline because we are already in bearish dynamics as I showed you for Alts against BTC. Compared to Bitcoin. See the difference. Here, I'm showing you all the altcoins, you can look at everything. We are already on bearish structures. Vinu here, which didn't come to take its last high compared to BTC. I'm showing you GRT here, it's exactly the same. On this BTC push, GRT did nothing. AV, which was very strong, similarly, it struggled a lot. Here, we take QNT, for example. Well, QNT, in my opinion, QNT, it's a good zone long-term, but similarly, despite this push, well, QNT is still okay, but it didn't break its highs. Things like AXS, similarly. So that's why Bitcoin absolutely needs to break through. Well, after that, there are small exceptions of things that managed to do something, notably FTT with a tweet from SBF. Well, who isn't him, but well, never mind, parenthesis closed, but many assets are already in bearish dynamics relative to BTC. And that's why it's crucial to have the break of this trendline. And really, if we don't break it, nothing will happen, unfortunately, and we absolutely must break it. So, in fact, it's Bitcoin that holds the destiny of the altcoin market in its hands right now. And because the altcoin market is already weaker. And again, if Bitcoin is to break this trendline, I'm not talking about an altcoin season like 2021, etc. I don't think so because, again, I think there's simply not enough liquidity to fuel a pump across the entire crypto market. But assets that have had momentum recently and are still in not-too-bad dynamics could benefit. I'm thinking of XRP. Well, XRP, given the re-entry of the ATH and all, Bitcoin really needs to go there. But let's say graphically it's not too bad if Bitcoin goes there. Because if Bitcoin doesn't go there, it looks more like a deviation, a liquidity grab. I think the market could retrace to test the lows if Bitcoin reverses. But well, that might be the subject of a separate video. And you take things like Cardano, similarly, in terms of dynamics, it's not too bad, it's contracting, it could break. I'm thinking in particular of things like Dogecoin, I'm thinking of course of things like Hyperliquid, I'm thinking of things like BNB, I'm thinking of things like AAVE, I'm thinking of things like Aster potentially. I might be forgetting others, I don't have the whole list in mind, but these are assets that have dynamics that are not too bad and that would benefit. But when you take assets that have dynamics that are not great, I'm not sure if they could benefit. Okay. Here, I'm taking IOTA as an example, but well, there are many cryptocurrencies where in terms of dynamics, we're not in extraordinary things. Here, you see, it's not good at all. Here, similarly, if I take something like this, it's not good at all. So, that's why there are assets, obviously, that are really in bearish dynamics that are not great. Here, for example, ZK, well, a big breakout. Is it an exit pump? I don't know. Often when this kind of movement happens, it's more indicative that we are at the end of a move when altcoins suddenly start to break out. It's a bit like the final phases, exit pump before the bearish movements. But well, I wanted to give you my opinion on the market idea. For now, as long as we don't break the trendline, I'm not expecting anything from the altcoin market, and I think that if Bitcoin reverses, it will bleed more in the altcoin market because that's already what's happening in terms of prices. Now, if Bitcoin breaks its trendline, then it's super positive, and we'll have to find assets that have momentum and not chase this kind of pump. Because if you arrive after the big pump and you buy here, you risk finding yourself having bought at the top. You have to understand that. You have to buy what hasn't moved too much yet or what is already performing but in dynamics. Okay, this, for example, is a big vertical push. Avoid it. Let's go for things that have nice dynamics, like AAVE. It could very well here go and seek higher, like this. But again, BTC needs to break. As long as it doesn't break, nothing will happen at all. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. I can resume altcoin analyses. So also, don't hesitate to tell me in the comments which altcoins you would like me to analyze. I also remind you for those who want to train with me, the only paid subscription I offer is the first link in the pinned comment. It's right here. Join my trading school because there is daily support from Monday to Friday. We find opportunities together. I answer your questions, I analyze your coins, I talk about my personal exposure to the market, what might interest me as well. You will also have access to the school's training, which is right here. 19 hours of video courses, 8 modules that train you from A to Z. You also have the small description of what you will find in the school on this page and testimonials from members if you are interested, you will be welcome. The price is only €49 per month, it's without commitment. You also have the 3 and 12 month offers which are even cheaper. I'll stop here. You are welcome. See you very soon.