Transcription
[Music] So look at this plot graph from last season, which shows non-penalty xG plus expected assists. Basically profiling how good a player is at creating high-value chances for themselves and others against non-penalty goals. Then, Barella is way out in front as a leader, but out of the rest, it's actually Adamola Lukman, who ranks the highest for his non-penalty xG plus expected assist, whilst also recording a non-penalty goals rate higher than Mo Salah, Vinicius, and Raphinha.
And if we now go for non-penalty xG against non-penalty goals, solely focusing on goal-scoring ability, Adamola Lukman is up there again, sitting third in line behind only Bradley Barcola and Jamal Musiala, whilst also overperforming his non-penalty xG by a sustainable rate, which the dotted green line shows. And so, goal-scoring wise, based on last season's output, Lukman is up there with the best wide forwards in Europe's top five leagues.
However, he's more than just a goal scorer. As we can see here with expected assists plotted against both progressive actions per 90 and then progressive actions rate, he isn't sitting as high with the front runners like Chiesa and Alex Baena, ranking highly for both the main chance-creating and ball-progressing metrics. And when you glance through his FB reports, both from the Champions League and Serie A, when compared against either strikers, which FBR refers to as forwards, or attacking midfielders and wingers, the output that he's producing for his goal-scoring, chance-creating, ball-progressing, and dribbling metrics is consistently ranking in the low to high 90th percentiles. And it's not just this season, but also in 23-24, both domestically and in the Europa League as well.
And so, in this video, I'm going to be analyzing what Adamola Lukman could bring to Manchester United if he was signed as essentially what would be an Alejandro Garnacho replacement. The key and unique attributes that Lukman has, which sets him apart from other top-level wide attackers as a goal scorer, as well as explaining how Lukman could aid United in a certain phase of play that even Kvaratskhelia can't to the same level. But before I get into that, if you want to check out any cheap, good-quality football jerseys, go over to jerseyever.co. They've got a variety of different currencies and retro jerseys, including the new Manchester United releases for the upcoming season. They sent me over a new season Bruno Fernandes Manchester United shirt, as well as this 2006-2007 white Manchester United away shirt with Ronaldo 7 on the back, as well as this Zidane Juventus shirt from the '90s as well. If you use code Atlantis at checkout, you'll get a 10% discount. So, I'll leave a link in the description and in the comment section below.
So, I do think people have a tendency to overrate players based on them being Premier League proven, whilst considerably underrate players who are statistically proven. And in my opinion, unless you're going to drop 75 to 100 million pounds or more on a player who probably wouldn't even be attainable for most clubs this summer, I think Adam Lukman at 28 in October for a reported asking price of 50 million, which is 42 million, is an absolute steal for a player of his quality. Given that he's only entering the start of his prime years, which should run until he's 32, 33, maybe even longer into his mid-30s. And I think it starts to look like even better value for money once you consider that players like Kudus, Madueke, and Antony went for between 50 to 55 million, and Di Maria and Kvaratskhelia went for over 60.
Now, unlike some others, I always like to start off by analyzing a player statistically because ultimately, output is what makes a player effective. Whereas the eye test can actually be deceiving, with people tending to overrate players who have aesthetically pleasing techniques compared with players who are maybe more effective in terms of their output, but aren't as elegant and fluid with their technique, with the famous Hazard-Salah comparison being one that comes to mind. The eye test can also lead to cognitive bias. As let's be real, no one's watching a player every minute of every game in a season. And so, your opinion of a player can be heavily influenced by a good or bad game, or even just a single moment during a game, leading to an inaccurate representation of their ability. However, statistics, as long as the sample size is big enough, are about as objective as you can get.
And if you needed any more proof about how effective Lukman is in multiple different phases of play, then this key metric circle chart from this season pretty much sums it up. Top 1% for non-penalty goals and non-penalty xG plus expected assists, as well as the low to high 90s for everything else, apart from progressive actions, which still sits in the 80th percentile. It's clear that Adamola Lukman passes the statistical test with flying colors. And even if you do obsess over players being Premier League proven, a statistical comparison with the likes of Kvaratskhelia and Embolo shows that Lukman is producing output to such a level that he surely cancels that out.
However, from the eye test, Lukman not only lives up to his statistical output, but I think you can also see that his skill set would make him the perfect player to play alongside Embolo and Kvaratskhelia in a positionally fluid front three. And there are a few specific aspects of Lukman's game that could make him even more valuable than those two in certain situations. Primarily, Lukman likes to operate wide on the left, where from he can receive the ball to feet. And despite having a technical aesthetic that is very similar to Jadon Sancho, Lukman has the assertiveness, dynamism, and confidence in his game that Sancho lacks. Able to glide past players when driving at them in 1v1s, float between challenges in congested areas with exceptional close ball control, quick footwork, and fluid body movement, whilst also having a devastating burst of acceleration, which helps him not just break beyond defenders to receive a through ball, but also allows him to get into high-value goal-scoring positions as well, which we can see from these examples.
So, in this example, as the ball goes out to Ederson on the right side, you can see that Lukman is positioned on the outside of the Palmer right-back on the far side. And when Cancelo takes a touch to set up the cross, you can see that Lukman is on the edge of the box, still sitting fairly wide, but his acceleration and anticipation is such that despite Cancelo's cross coming in with pace, he's able to accelerate into that area at the back post, connecting with the ball on his weaker left foot, volleying the ball first time into the roof of the net.
In this example, we once again see the effectiveness of Lukman's anticipation and acceleration as when the ball gets moved out to the left. You can see that he's initially positioned statically in the left-sided half-space, but Lukman is already aware of where his teammates are and where the space is. As when the pass is about to go into Ederson, Lukman is positioned in front of the Genoa defender. But immediately when the pass is made, he suddenly springs into life, spinning in behind a defender in front, breaking goal-side into the space to receive the pass from Ederson, where from a composure and the technique on his left foot to feed a perfectly timed, directed, and weighted pass across goal for Retegui to finish.
And this brings me on to where Lukman could provide more value than both Embolo and Kvaratskhelia, and that is against deeper defensive shapes. See, my concern with Embolo and Kvaratskhelia playing alongside an advanced forward like a Griezmann, Vlahović, or a Haaland is that United would have a front line where all three are a lot more effective during quick transitional attacks from the middle third when there is space between the lines and in behind the back line compared to when they're operating in tighter areas against a side sitting deep in their defensive third. However, Lukman is just as, if not more, effective in these type of situations. Having the acceleration to break in behind the back line, even when he's stationed in the final third, as we just saw in this previous example, as well as having the technical ability to be able to either dribble past players or thread incisive passes, specializing in one-two into plays around the box. Lukman might be one of the most effective players in the world against deeper defensive shapes, and would balance out Kvaratskhelia, but specifically Embolo's greater effectiveness on the transition. I'll do a separate video going into detail about how Lukman's addition to the left of the front three could allow Matías Núñez to develop into a world-class center forward due to Núñez's existing skill set. So, make sure you subscribe to the channel for that.
Now, alongside his anticipation and acceleration over shorter distances, another difference between Lukman and Embolo, as well as most other top-level wide attackers, is his elite-level ball manipulation, ball control under pressure, and reactions inside and around the box. In this clip, the ball is about to go into the empty box, and Lukman is static, back to goal, with the defender tight behind him. But as the ball goes over his head, look how quickly he reacts and accelerates to get in front, goal-side of the defender. And then, when receiving an awkward bouncing ball under pressure with a touch of his upper body, he sets up the half-volley, connecting cleanly and finding the back of the net.
And just like in the earlier example, it's this exact type of anticipation, acceleration, and ball control under pressure, which allows Lukman to record a high non-penalty xG, scoring at a sustainable rate, despite a lot of his goals coming from outside of the box, as his ability to get into and create chances for himself like this is as good as most elite-level strikers, which can be seen by his non-penalty xG per shot, ranking just as highly as his other goal-scoring metrics.
Now, in this clip against Napoli, the initial pass out wide to him is short, forcing him to halt his run and giving Di Lorenzo, the Napoli right-back, the momentum. But look how Lukman is able to think quickly and use this to his advantage, simply touching the ball around the oncoming defender. And now he's racing at the center-back, pushing him back into his own box, but also has three or four players surrounding him. And even though Politano gets back to stop his run, leaving him completely boxed in at this point, his reactions and his technique on the shot is outstanding, drilling it first time, hard and low, with his weaker left foot into the bottom corner.
Here against Real Madrid, the ball gets switched out to him on the left corner of the box. Lukman is able to bring the ball under control immediately before stopping Vázquez statically inside of the box, one of his trademark moves. And even though in this example, he doesn't use the overlapping run coming behind him, you can see from what Lukman does next how effective he could be with a powerful runner like Dorgu behind. But without even needing the decoy run, Lukman doesn't overcomplicate it or do anything fancy. He simply shifts the ball with one touch, opening up the shooting angle before rifling the ball into the near post. And it's this sort of speed of thought and movement, ball manipulation, and shooting ability of both his right and left foot that without doubt is going to win United games where most other players can't.
And so, in terms of individual current ability and output, I think Lukman is a level above the likes of Embolo, Kvaratskhelia, Rodrygo, and Rafael Leão, and up there with the best attacking midfielders in the world such as Jamal Musiala, Vinícius Júnior, Chiesa, and Alcaraz. I genuinely believe that he's that good at this stage in his career, and he deserves a move to a big club. And from United's perspective, he's only turning 28 in October, and so he'd likely remain at this level and be a key player until maybe 2029 or 2030, potentially even longer. He has such a complete skill set, I think he's more than capable of roaming centrally in a positionally fluid front three. And realistically, where else are United going to get this sort of quality for less than £50 million? To me, using Kvaratskhelia or Xavi as a withdrawn false nine type with Embolo and Lukman either side, maybe also signing a cheaper, more traditional target man-like striker to use during certain games and as a more direct option off the bench at this point in the summer seems like the optimal way to build this attack.
I am going to do a separate video analyzing that fluid front three of Lukman, Kvaratskhelia, and Embolo, as well as looking at some underrated center-forward options that United could also look to bring in. So, make sure you subscribe to the channel for that. Let me know what you think of Lukman in the comments. And if you want to check out any cheap, good-quality football jerseys, go over to jerseyever.co. You can use code Atlantis at checkout for a 10% discount. So, I'll leave a link in the description and comment section below. And if you want to sign up to my Patreon to get access to any of the plot graphs, the group chat, or my articles, I'll leave that linked on the end screen now.