Transcription
Today's number, guys, is one because boy oh boy, are we seeing things heat up into this Christmas season. Are we about to see the Grinch come once again? Or are we still in for a Christmas rally?
Well, Wall Street has placed its largest ever trade and it's a cluster on one of the biggest exchange traded funds in the world. And it means that we have a lot to talk about as risks come back in to the AI trade and people start to panic.
But maybe more interesting than any of this has been the sectors that we've focused on for the last couple of weeks. Metals and the massive liquidity issues that they're starting to be faced with. We've got some breaking news on what exactly is going on with platinum and palladium and a squeeze that could get absolutely wild. On top of all of this manipulation and of course the crypto markets with a monster rally to the supply and then a rejection. Are we about to see a huge bare bust? So much to go through, heaps to cover, and of course, inflation is coming as well. Let's now talk about stocks, commodities, and cryptos to see what's in store next. Catch you in a moment.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson and in today's video, we're covering the macro, the data, and what Wall Street has been up to. as it was a sell pretty much all the big tech as concerns start to fly again about what is happening in this AI trade. Are we going to see profits at the end of the tunnel or is there something big uh kind of going on?
Well, let's talk about here from Hogar's report here from Bloomberg and that is that the CDs are blowing out once again. And in fact, the cost of insuring against Oracle default is increasing by the day. And of course, we are now at a 16-year high, not seen since the GFC. Now, is this a cause for concern? Well, this is the one everyone's focused in on, but there are others. And of course, some of the MAG 7 stocks are starting to burn cash at a faster rate, and I think Meta is next when it comes to cash on hand. We had a report on that in one of our previous videos. But let's cover the good, the bad, and the ugly. And we'll start with some ugly stuff first. And one of those is of course that sentiment is at its own high here according to the latest Bank of America survey and that's coming into the Christmas period while cash on hand available is super low and in notoriously this has actually been a point where you want to say it could be a calm before the storm and of course there are some VIX problems as well which we've discussed in the past but let's go through the other stuff.
Japan interest rate. This is another one that I see here come up all the time from I3 invest here and basically just shows that when Japan starts a hiking cycle again only one data point so not enough. Then we have seen usually a market rally and then we saw a massive crunch. Now would I be concerned about this chart? The simple answer is no. Is it a sign of a problem? Sure. It's an amber light but as we've talked about several times it's probably the not the one that breaks the camel's back. but it is certainly getting some of the biggest media attention right now.
Some other problems that are getting media attention, unemployment rate spiking, specifically spiking above its 12-month moving average now. And as we saw here from Seth Golden, it is a bit of a concern because in previous times when we've actually spiked above these periods, the crossover here, we've actually seen a signal that's usually been a recession is coming. Now, you might say, well, what makes this time different? probably how low we are in terms of the overall unemployment. So really unemployment is spiking but it's coming off historically low. So really where are we back to right now? You would say actually what is technically a normalized market I guess though some of you I'm sure would disagree in the comments down below on what a normal market probably looks like. And a lot of us have forgotten as well cuz it's been you know really a decade of being at these levels what something like this could really be like. And it is going to be very interesting to see how that plays out. But this doesn't change the fact that, you know, midterm election years or midterm years in the US have been notoriously bad. According to bar chart here and what we've been already discussing, on average, we lose 18.2% in terms of a draw down on the S&P during a midterm election year. So, do we have a bit to be worried about? Uh, the answer is quite simply yes, because that's pretty bad. And you can see here the last periods of time, they've all been bad. And it's one of the most notorious years for negativity in markets. Now, will we get a double-digit drop? I kind of sus suspect we will at some point. And of course, we'll talk more about that in a moment.
But let's go through the CPI first because not only do we have huge options expiration, we also have a CPI release because of all this stuff with the government shutdown. And of course, the question is, are we going to see some big tariff style CPI finally show up? We haven't had it so far, but I think the key here is that most of the returns post CPR results have actually been green and not red. So that's something to keep in mind. And JP Morgan's latest forecast is transitory when it comes to what's going on with tariff CPI inflation. So they believe that we're going to drop off in 2026 from having this transition of tariff inflation. So what do you guys think though down below? Do you think it's going to be transitory? The last time we heard a word like that, generally speaking, it wasn't. But I would say probably don't trade that concept. Instead, look at the flows, look at the TA, look at the data, look at the macro, like we always do, and bring it together as a piece of the puzzle.
Now, speaking of pieces of the puzzle, the largest trades ever on some of the biggest exchange traded funds in the world, guys, this is wild stuff. Clusters everywhere over the last couple of sessions. We've talked about some of them, but actually 24 hours ago, we got the number one trade on IV. That's huge. And we got the number one cluster ever recorded on the big dog spy. This one here is a massive level. And of course, what happened was the market then sold off straight after. And you might say, "Oh, does that mean that there's a huge position short here?" Look, it could. This is the problem with this time of year. This is where Wall Street repositions. they get ahead of the game for of course everything to do with the exchange traded funds, the window dressing, all that type of stuff for the end of the year. So, it's not unusual to see huge huge volumes at this time of year, but boy oh boy, they're getting big. So, I mean, they're big around this point. And you can actually see the big compliments, which we'll talk of soon when it comes to options. The Q's are at 600 and guess where the S&P is close to our level 6,700, guys. It's all happening.
So, let's have a look here at SPY volume. It's greater than 122 million shares according to the market stats. That's a big deal. It doesn't tend to happen without actually usually seeing a rally and the rally 3 weeks later is 100% of the time. So this is quite a lot of data points only over the last couple of years. Be interesting if we could actually get this even further back and see what the data points are. I'm sure it's not 100%. That's why we have it like this. But yeah, it does bode relatively well. And it doesn't mean the market's hot. It just means that the market is usually going to see a lot of inflow, outflows, and all sorts of movements. Down consecutive three days in a row. Now, I guess four, well, maybe it's three plus one up then one down. I can't remember. But generally speaking, when we get a read like this, we do end up usually pretty good in terms of structure. Blue Kurtic there. And of course, eight months up in a row. You might say, well, that's the end of the market. Notoriously, it's actually still bullish, but the key here is going to be structure. And we've talked about this several times on the channel. Remember, we got a Fed rate cut and we're seeing small caps do better. That is not as good as you may think. The breadth is actually expanding and that's good for time being, but it's not actually good long term. We'll talk more about that into 2026. Fixed term structure. We talked about this ratio three times now. So you guys go back over the previous videos, but I want to bring it back up because it is still a warning sign. And the key here is going to be, you know, if we do see this breadth continue, should we continue to be looking at other sectors instead of just tech? And my answer is generally yes. And of course, you guys know I'm a huge believer in looking outside the box because there are better returns out there.
Have a look here at the percentage of members above the 200 day MA. Look at that. It's almost 70% for the Russell. And that's actually a pretty big deal. So just remember here, small caps have been performing better for a while now and other sectors do count. So if you've only been looking at tech or a couple of weird meme kind of stocks, definitely start to pay attention to some other stuff. We cover it here all the time.
Let's have a look at the options flow. We know calls went out of control and of course we also know that puts were very large as well. And this creates a polarized market because you might say, "Oh, well, you know, there's clearly like people positioning for the short." Yeah. But they're all doing it at all-time highs or close to all-time highs for almost every market in the world. And this is not usually how markets end. Uh we tend to see usually markets find a lot more volatility near their end and we will be watching for that. I would say earnings next year is going to be one of the biggest catalysts for everything.
Now, where have we liked recently? Well, this year has been for this channel, you guys know, gold, silver. We were early. We were gold two years plus ago. Now, we're silver this year. Beautiful thing, which absolutely surpassed even my expectations. Can we get 75 an ounce next year? Hey, maybe we will. Now, copper doing really well. Platinum, palladium, especially last couple days. And of course, this marks are we going to see some interesting shenanigans with energy next year. Well, we just saw a bit of a pickup in energy over the last 24 hours. We'll talk about it soon, but all very interesting stuff.
Let's have a look now at the number of days above the 50 DMA. 140 almost. You guys know what I think on this and I'm being a big deal on this because so far it's pretty much happened as we expect. The pullback here that is actually very normal. Then we usually rally. We stay kind of sideways. That is really a breadth kind of expansion. And then next year, well, you guessed it, maybe some problems starting to come into the markets. So for now, still remaining bullish. Obviously, this is Tomly Funst Strat's concept, which is sideways, similar to us actually. And then uh this is a rally. I actually kind of feel like sideways to down, then rally, then possibly down again. So midterm years do tend to be bad. And this is of course the composite that I'm thinking of uh when I say that.
Let's talk about flows. Pretty bad on Bitcoin. Frankly, the flows are not there. They went positive for a little while. They're kind of like more negative than positive, but the shenanigans were here on this candle. I shared this over on X, and you guys can see it. It comes up, doesn't tap the 90,00 where I think it would have gone bullish, and then it nails it and comes down. So, that's a classic supply nail. It's actually quite negative on the charts. Now, it is possible to reverse it and then breach up, but if I was saying anything, I'd usually be negative on this chart. And I think a lot of people, this is only going to get stacked with stop losses. Now, there's going to be so many people trying to short here with stops below here. So, remember, if it does go above, it's going to create like a decent bottoming pattern here in the small time frames, and there could be a monster squeeze. So, there's really still two ways, but I'd have to say the bears are currently in control of that chart.
Let's talk about bears in control of the S&P. We do see here Brett's still staying relatively good, but it closed on its low, which kind of signals we might get a 6,700. You can see here in the options market, 6,700 very key around 50% fib as well, but it is options. Look at these levels, guys. 6700. Look at the big options. Options, options, options. OPEX big zone. That's a put wall. Here is the options for of course the Q 600 600 80 mil. Wow. Big big big big big. So what that generally means is it's a flaw. So think of it as like it's a flaw. Yes, it can be broken. If it does often it gets incredibly volatile. But that 600 level on the Q 6700ish zone on the spy, it's kind of like that level where we think that that that there could be a bid coming in. So, it's pretty much standard Wall Street OPEX, if you know what I'm saying. That is options expiration manipulation at its finest. We'll see how it plays.
With Tesla, if you got 495, well done to you. 495 498, they would have been my targets because, as you guys know, only noobs go for the rounds, and I'm sure none of you are noobs. So, that was pretty awesome. If you did get 495, let me know cuz you perfected. you were a scalpel style exit there in that that gamma squeeze that was going on. It's not dead chart, but certainly uh it might stagnate for a little bit after such a monster rally into a big dump like it had. 170 for the puts for Nvidia, 160 165 also interesting. Nothing much else to report there. And for IBIT, you guys know it's 48 48 48. We drop 48, we could be going to 43. That'll be about 75K on Bitcoin. So, for now, it's holding on just barely to the last keys. We did see a bit of an option spike up now in the bonds world, but not too much action there. You can see also here the yields were kind of not not doing much. High yield junk. Um, again, this corporate bonds, they're just kind of sitting around. No concerns there in corporate world.
Nvidia versus SPY did start to drop. So that's almost made a new low which means that Nvidia's given up in terms of where it's been. I would say with this, you know, we're we're starting to lose leadership. You know, one of the things that I've been looking at is uh have we started to see, you know, weakness in the AI trade? Well, the answer is quite simply yes, but do we have the data to back that up yet? Only Oracle's earnings. We don't have, of course, the big ones. And that's why Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, all the earnings coming forward are going to be so important. uh first major target potentially for US 2k if we're going to get a symbiotic style market could be about 2470 and again that's just going to be confluence confluence confluence of potential bid zones and then we're looking for a bid from Wall Street you can see here oil services uh did come back to support energy stocks came back to support but probably the barrel was the most interesting trade as you can see it dropped then rallied about 3 and 1/2% now this is a critical point cuz it's a new low is the trend Absolutely. Would I be calling a change of trend? No. Uh but yeah, some interesting trades there and some big volumes. What do they know? We maybe don't platinum though. Wow. Uh let's give a clap. Holy moly, guys. We have just been witnessing win after win on these medals. These metals are ballistic. And you guys know that. Well, if you're in the private community, I actually started talking about this about 3 weeks ago for the bullend. And uh it's just been an exceptionally good trade. Great riskreward. On top of that, it even gets crazier in the news because it turns out that a lot of futures contracts are being closed from being opened, which means liquidity is a massive issue. And when you get liquidity like this, it's going to spike up and do all sorts of things. It's a closeon style market now. There's clearly going to be a huge volatile swing here at some point, but the market's still squeezing and yeah, it's happening across a lot of metals markets. Gold did close above the dogee. That's pretty nice. So, it still looks bullish to me and it's a bit behind the others. And silver absolutely cracker lacking. Look at that thing. 66. Wow. That is put a shrimp on the barbie, guys. And you are just going to go to sleep because these metals markets are just going ballistic. and you wake up and you're a billionaire. Is that how it works? No. I wish that's how it works. Yeah. But in general, these markets are just absolutely squeezing. So, do expect extreme volatility on them. If they're closing off CFD positions and futures positions and and forcing you not to be able to trade them, then that generally means liquidity shot and there's some serious liquidity problem in the background. Uh, which we'll see how that plays. But it's a great learning experience for everyone. And obviously a uh another one of those ones which we kind of suspected would get crazy but yeah to see liquidity turned off that's that's a big deal.
Tesla 495 well done if you got it and just shows again never target the 500 target before. I like the fives and the eights. So maybe you would have got a little bit off. Um, but yes the market's still bullish overall. It's just come back a bit. And Oracle, look at this thing. It actually gap filled which I've been looking for. No bid yet, but just shows you how the mighty fall. And it also shows the statement. If it's in the press, it's in the price. Gap up, monster dump after that. This was exactly when richest man in the world, largest fortune made in one day ever. Record, record, record, record, all eyes on me, failure. So, there's actually a huge pullback. Now, this is a level that I'm interested in cuz I know the sentiment is pretty shut on this, but no bid equals no bid. So, you know, do anything.
Chinese market now uh did buy off the low a little bit, but I actually think the best deal here is probably to wait for a 26 250 to bounce up. Look, liquidity will come back to China, but it hasn't happened yet and we'll be watching. But let's uh have a look here at the Q's. We're actually going to do the Q's today because I think it's the most interesting chart. So, what we'll do first up is we'll just take a quick fib here from the low to the high. You'll notice we're back to our golden pocket kind of area. And we also could be coming into that stop loss that's sitting here which is what is that price there? That is a 5597 in terms of price. But yeah, very interesting level here uh for the cues. We look for a bounce ideally and I'm going to be watching the spy the most. But yeah, still pretty cool zone.
Now let's have a look at Crypto World. Yeah, that's pretty bad. Look at chart. That looks like Santa's sleigh as we had in the meme. Yeah, there falling off the cliff. Uh, look, XRP has no bid and we don't have any real bids across the board. I think the most egregious chart though was the Bitcoin chart, hitting that monster supply, nailing stops behind here, slamming them down. And you can see here that I've got a mass liquidation zone that probably turns super bearish and then I've got that bull area. Interesting chart. Interesting chart does not mean easy chart though. Uh, there are of course two cases and that's the beautiful thing about markets. Which will be the strongest? If you had to argue right now, of course, you're going to be on the bare end more because of this rejection. But tell you what, I've seen crazy things happen. It could it could bounce above here. And as I often say, patience sometimes does give you the best positions. So, we'll see. Uh, good news for the bulls still is that we did get those mass liquidations over here. We also closed above the daily, so it's holding on, but there's nothing here that tells you just yet that uh, yeah, it's fantastic, is there? So, we will continue to watch the Bitcoin chart very closely indeed.
If you enjoyed today's video, then please remember to subscribe, smash that like button. Do remember inflation numbers are coming. Uh, how do I feel about it? Well, you saw the data from Blue Curtic. It's actually more bullish usually than bearish, but I think there's all sorts of options shenanigans coming in. Who knows really on that one. The main thing is to see the bid to look for replication. If you're interested more in finding out about how we do that, I'd have to suggest the day trading masterass if you watch along with these videos and you'll see some levels that I sometimes just have on charts. You you'll see what I mean. If you know, you know. But uh either way guys, I hope you have a fantastic holidays with your family and friends. If you're not watching any any we still will be making some vids over the Christmas break, uh but it will be a little bit reduced because I do like to take a little bit of time with the family as well. And realistically, that is important for us all to do. But the main thing here is that the markets do tend to slow down a bit. Sometimes they're wild, but most of the time they slow down. And of course, we go into hopefully a bull period. So remember, it technically starts next week. We'll be there. We'll be following. And of course, we'll bring you the stats, guys. Let's see if we can get a bid off 6700. Can we? Bye for now.