Transcription
All right, almost everyone we put in this chair lately told you the exact same thing about gold. Hold on. The bull is intact by the dip. My guest today did the opposite. He sold near the top. He's sitting in cash and right now he's waiting for one specific price to buy back in. And the timing is almost too good. I mean, gold broke below $4,000 last week for the first time since November. It clawed back a little bit here and this morning it's right back around that line. Now, the one he says decides where this goes next. So whether you're holding gold and sweating this drop or sitting in cash waiting like he is the number one and I guess the number he's going to be giving us is the one to watch. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Let's get into it.
All right. Joining me now is Christopher Muan, chief market strategist at the technical traders. Uh Chris, welcome back. Interesting time. I guess we can get right into it.
>> Yeah, thanks for having me, Jeremy. Always a pleasure.
>> Always a pleasure. Um you know, everyone's looking at the chart. I mean, everyone's looking at what's happening with the Fed. There's a lot of macro, but I mean talking about the technicals today. I mean, gold did break below that $4,000 last week for the first time, as I said, since November. Kind of clawed back this morning. It's right kind of testing that line uh down better than I guess a percent and a half on the day. Now, again, you trade levels. You don't trade headline. So, give it to me straight here. I mean, is this line holding or breaking? And if it breaks, where does the chart actually say gold kind of goes? And how deep is that real downside?
>> Yeah, I mean when we look at the chart of gold, there's there's no doubt the chart has had a lot of damage. When we zoom back on the daily chart, we really saw precious metals obviously early this year just go completely ballistic. It broke out of a bull flag chart pattern and everyone really just chased it and drove it higher. If you weren't in precious metals by this point, you were the one driving this market up, piling in. And and when we get into this euphoric phase, it creates these very sharp movements. And the big question is like now is where is gold going to find uh support and and where is it going to find some traction? When we look at this chart, we've got a very significant level across where we're starting to break through right here. We've got these lows in gold. This is a very Whoops. A very significant pivot point for gold right now. It is clinging on to breaking through this this consolidation that we saw late last year. We had a spike low early in March. It had a bounce there a few weeks ago and right now it is if it lets loose here, we're going to see it unwind fairly quickly. And the chart pattern for gold, I mean, depends how you look at it. I want lower pricing. I think it's great. It's good long-term price action. It means gold will be stronger in the long run.
>> Uh short, you know, people holding on to it have to sweat it out right now, but I mean, if you're a long-term investor, it really doesn't matter because I think gold will end up going a whole lot higher. So just based on Fibonacci u theory which is based on kind of a a power in the universe that more or less tells you based on one movement and its reaction it shows you where the next two likely movements are to be. So we had the initial sell off in gold it bounced up. We've come down to this 618 level. Now this is called the golden ratio. This is the most powerful kind of um value really in the universe. If you pause and bounce at the 618, which we have, we almost always see a commodity or asset continue to move to the 100% measured move, which is what the one stands for. So, right now, the chart of gold is looking like it wants to go to to about $3,600. That is going to be a sweet spot in terms of if it drops down to this level, to me, it's fair value or it's undervalued. I think it's a great long-term investment. As you mentioned, we we exited out of gold up here just above 5,000. And so, we're looking to reload down from this target. And eventually, when gold gets its traction here, the next upside target should be around 8,000 to about 8,600 for gold. So, there's lots of upside potential. There's a nice double from pretty much where we are right now. But, there is still potential downside in gold. And the problem here and the reason why I move in and out of specific assets is because we don't know how long something could take to go up to those targets. Right? We have seen gold and silver take 5, 10, 14 years to or even longer in some cases to get back to previous highs. And so I like to move my money into an asset that is generating return while that commodity is figuring itself out. So that's the sweet spot for gold is about 3600. But if it hits that level, then it's like definitely start to accumulate physical metals again and get ready for the next move higher.
>> Get ready for a little bit of a rip. Uh, you know what? It's interesting your point there because one thing people keep asking, you know, these moves have gotten they've gotten violent. I mean, gold gapping around big reversals inside of a single day. Uh, you know, I was reading this morning some of this some of these positions in and the ETF flows and what have you. I mean, how much of this >> or that, I guess, is is algorithms and and kind of big money program trading shoving the price around? And if it is, I mean, what's your advice for a regular person keeping from getting whips out by it?
>> Yeah, I think it all depends on how you look at it. Like yeah sure there's also and there's systems out there but the precious metal space is small it it really the price action that we have seen like when we see these huge drops in gold and silver and miners and these big pops and drops to be honest Jeremy it's like I it's the exact same price action we've seen for the 30 almost 30 years that I've been trading and investing it's the same type of thing it's generally emotions people always say oh they're blaming it on you know money being manipulated and robots and systems But when you go back and you look at all of these phases where sentiment gets so extreme like this and we have these huge, you know, rips and drops in the market, it's typical price action. It's really the emotional people who are blaming it on the system are actually the ones creating the waves of massive buying and massive selling that creates the pops and drops in a lot of cases. So my whole thing is just understand volatility and price action like we see in gold and silver and even the stock market right now. It really is just how it's kind of almost always been. There's always going to be some manipulation. There's nothing we can do about it. You just have to have a strategy and identify when we're in a high volatility state like we are now, it's just going to happen, right? And you just have to work that into your risk. And a lot of people will they trade and invest, but they don't focus on risk. And it's all about managing your positions in your portfolio. Like technical analysis is one thing. It helps you get an idea of where price should go, but it doesn't tell you how to trade. you have to understand how much should you put at risk? How long could this asset be dormant? Do I want to have my money stuck in it if it's not moving for the next year and a half or two years? Um, so you really just have to kind of brush it off and be like, you know, it's part of the game. There's going to be some that might swing you and stop you out here and there, but I mean that's just the reality of you play with the markets. You got to you got to deal with what it gives us.
>> Yeah. And of course they've been interesting. I'll tell you from this perspective covering them obviously a lot of volatility. I mean, you were you were on the show back in April, and you don't shy away from from making calls. So, let's just look at a couple of those to play out just because that kind of tells us how you actually work in this market. I mean, you nailed what a few that plenty of people have kind of missed. I mean, you said that the dollar would break out and that, you know, rates would kind of stay higher. Both of those things happened. I mean, the trickier one for a trader style is you wanted to kind of buy gold back lower around 34 $3,500. Um, you know, I guess we're watching a little bit of that pullback now. You said maybe 3,600 you'd come back into it. So, I mean, this isn't about a number being right or wrong. It's about the discipline. When you wait for a setup and maybe it takes a little longer to show up, I mean, how do you kind of handle sitting out while the market runs and how should someone at home kind of, you know, handle the same problem?
>> Well, I mean, it's difficult. I mean, it really comes down to having if you have a strategy and rules to follow and you have the discipline to follow it, that's the problem, right? People just want to be active. They don't have the discipline to sit on their hands and and so we are sitting on our hands waiting for gold. I've I I've owned gold, gold and silver for a very long time, physical metals and I don't have any. I feel very naked and exposed because obviously anybody who's into precious metals knows the risks and why we should have precious metals. But overall, I mean I think you just have to have the discipline to sit on your hands and wait for that opportunity. We've seen gold and silver trade sideways for for a decade plus many many times. In fact, it's been a lot longer, a couple decades if you go further back in time. It's a long time to hold something that doesn't do you any justice, right?
>> And so, it just comes down to that strategy and understanding you have to have faith. I don't really care. Obviously, I'd like to buy gold at a lower price. What I don't want to waste is time. I want my money working for me. So, if gold and silver just turned around here and started to to go higher, Jeremy, and we get a new buy signal saying, "Hey, the metals are are starting the next leg, I'll just buy in at a higher price." But I don't want to buy into something until the train is leaving the station in the direction I want. And the best analogy is really, it's like if you go to another country, you don't speak the language, you can't read the signs, but you're at the train station and it could go either way. The only thing you can really do is wait for it to start to leave the station and be like, "Oh my god, that's going in the direction I want to go." And you hop on it. And so I would rather jump into something even at a higher price and just catch the big move and have kind of instant gratification and growth than just sit on it and it goes the wrong way for a while and then it's got to turn around and it's got to go back on the tracks and and go the other way. So, the biggest thing for me is protect our time, protect our capital, and make sure if our money's at work, whatever we put it to work in, it it's got to meet rules in our in our strategy, our criteria to to to put our money at risk.
>> That's a good point. I mean, you know, for someone who owns physical gold is insurance, not as a trade. You know, some of these sell signals might not apply to them. When you're talking to traders specifically, I mean, are you seeing other frothy areas? I got to ask you about silver. I mean, it got even hit harder today. I think it's down about 2% harder than gold. It's more volatile of the two. I mean, is there a chart that you're watching on silver right now? And do you got to hold at a certain price here? I mean, it's been extremely volatile, Chris.
>> Yeah, si silver is is really volatile. It has a very significant support level. It was been trying to hold through this 646 $65. It has clearly broken down. uh you know it's if if you look at metals they they were all been they've been bouncing across support and they're starting to break down and as you brought up a few m moments ago Jeremy we look at the US dollar the US dollar has done the opposite we've been looking for the dollar saying hey if the dollar breaks to the upside and breaks out of this multi-year kind of base look out because metals could get hit very hard it also might mean the stock market and the economy actually might be starting to come to an end here and we might start to see a big sell-off there's a lot of upside potential. The chart for the dollar is actually pointing to a rally up to about 109. That's a 9% move in in it, which is going to hurt precious metals. And if we go back and look at silver, the chart of silver, it's already hit some of its its measured moves. If we take a look at this initial drop, it had its initial drop down here and then had its bounce. If we kind of carry it over to where it is, we can see that it hit the 618. It's it had another big bounce up. It's kind of hit the 618 again and it is heading towards that 100% measured move. Now, this is a long way down from where we are. This is $40 silver. But what it does, Jeremy, is it actually goes right back. It's the It's the same with gold. It goes right back to the point where people late to the game who bought into the euphoric phase and just drove the markets up and bought on emotions and FOMO and they they just needed to get into it. All of those people who chase returns are chasing performance and and trading on emotions. The market loves to try to put them under pressure and try and get them back out before they go. And so that is exactly what gold and silver are doing. Both charts point to the exact point where everybody went into a euphoric phase and just they had to buy more gold or silver or buy it for their first time. And and so silver right now is pointing to still a very sharp correction. We've got the dollar breaking out. A lot of things are aligning for gold and silver to have this cleansing event which again it's it's a cleansing event. It's an opportunity to add more. It's also when you zoom back on the chart long-term it's a giant bull flag pattern pointing to much higher pricing. The upside target for silver is around 165 175 an ounce if it if it starts to find traction here. So there's lots of potential and uh it just comes down to do you want to you know move in and out of it. Everybody has their own way of investing in metals, right? Some's long-term insurance kind is what I kind of do, but I also bring in a little bit of the I I want to sell it when it's kind of overdone. Like we sold silver at 111 and I'm looking to pick it up, you know, somewhere down into this this zone >> and accumulate at a lower level. So, it's just the way that I trade. I look at as an insurance, but I trade my insurance plan.
>> That makes sense. And I mean you zooming out too is important because obviously this is trading but we have seen some not bad returns at least on on both of those metals. Uh you were talking dollar there for a second and I kind of want to come back to that just because it might be you know a real for driving this whole gold selloff and something that just happened that shows how kind of strong it's gotten. I mean the Japanese yen is has fallen to a four decade low and Japan has reportedly spent tens of billions of dollars trying to prop it up. It's still sliding. I mean, when when a major currency breaks down like that, Chris, is there a bigger danger here? A blow up or kind of a carry trade unwind like we saw in 24 that could, you know, kind of shock everything. Gold's stocks, gold, all of it included.
>> Yeah. Well, there's there's there's a lot I think I think a lot of countries, a lot of currencies, I think the whole world is very fragile. I mean, we've got, you know, a raging bull market and smaller micro caps and technology right now, but I mean, we are it's super delicate. I remember it wasn't that long ago the the Fed and the government saying, "Oh, the financial system's great." And then in like two days, Silicon Valley Bank blows up, right? And they just get bailed out like it's, you know, nothing. Uh this this world is extremely fragile and the markets are not as safe as people think. And so we just need to be aware. This is one of the biggest things that I'm a huge fan of is when we move our portfolio in, we have multiple positions. We have a position, we always have a an exit plan. We always have an order place saying, "Hey, if there's a catastrophe and things just start to drop and collapse, we want to make sure we get exited on the way down. We don't want to wake up the next morning or or let things collapse too far and then be like, "Holy crap, what do I do?" Because the problem is if you don't get out as as your controlled stop gets triggered, you end up being down so much and everybody says the exact same thing. They're like, "Well, I'm down so much now, I might as well just hold it." And that's like the worst thing you could do because it could fall another 20 30% from there. It could take 10 15 years to come back and you've just wasted all those years of of of returns that you can you can still get. And if if a market's falling or going sideways, you can move to a different market, right? You can move to bonds, you can move to a currency, a commodity, you can short the market, but the problem is you need an exit plan. And so like if a currency of the yen or something blows up, you just have to make sure you've got a way to you'll wake up and you know a stop will be triggered and you'll be like, "Wow, that sucks, but thank God I'm out." Right? And so that's what I do. I focus on protecting our capital. And if you protect your portfolio, you're at least protecting kind of your lifestyle and and your your time, all the effort you put into building our wealth, right? And it's so easy to lose it. As we all know, it is like takes a bad trade and you blew up a huge chunk of your account. So, I focus very very much so on risk management. I've gone through a bankruptcy many, many years ago. I've blown up multiple accounts a long time ago. So, I know exactly how quick and easy it is to uh turn things, you know, upside down. And it's it's easier than everybody thinks.
>> Yeah, you bring up a good point. I mean, if gold can kind of break down even with this whole debt story, central bank buying and inflation kind of still in place, then maybe this isn't about gold. Maybe it's about liquidity. Um, and I got to ask you about that. But I mean, if the dollar's kind of breaking out, cash seems to be more attractive. Defensive trades are kind of waking up. We got to talk about the S&P 500. I mean, is this this still a bull market that's kind of digesting gains or or, you know, are stocks the next shoe to drop?
>> Well, there's there's no doubt we're still we're still in a bull market. The the short-term trend is still up for for the S&P 500, and the long-term trend is still up. We've had a series of bounces. So we had the the tariff crash, then we had the straight of horore muse correction and now the markets are showing signs of exhaustion. Right now we just moved out of the rest of our position last week. We were now fully in cash waiting to find out if the stock market here is this a temporary top and it's going to correct or is it going to turn around and start another leg higher? And the market just has lost its its traction here. When when we look at the S&P 500 through two different lenses, if we look at the right side here, Jeremy, this is the lens, the right hand side is colorcoded for the sentiment, where money's flowing between different asset classes and um different sentiment levels. And of course, when it starts to turn red, deep red, that's when we want to get out. That's telling us, hey, everything has changed. Not only has it lost its trend, but the money flows gone negative. People, big money is flowing out of those. So, we're starting to see some weakness in the markets now on the hard right edge. We're getting orange bars. And so, that's important. We need to know when we look at the charts, like on the left hand side, it's our trend analysis. We know when to hold them. We know when to exit. We know when a bounce turns into, hey, this is actually not a bounce anymore. It's a rally. We've we've locked in some partial profits. We've moved out of the trade. And our strategy right now says, hey, there is no clean direction. It's trading sideways. Volatility is up. So just be cautious. So as much as we've stepped aside, the trend is still up, but I don't want to get into this on this train until it starts to say, "Hey, I'm going back higher." There is potential. The S&P 500 here could rally about 13%. Based on the Fibonacci momentum of this this rally and pullback and the NASDAQ could rally about 20%. And if we get those moves, Jeremy, I think it could be like uh maybe that final euphoric phase where everybody kind of piles in and we start to see a big sell-off. You and I shared this chart once before. We're in this I believe this tech euphoric phase and SpaceX help really spark things up and and this is what gold and silver went through in January, February, March, right? It went parabolic euphoric and then it's crashed and now it's been trading sideways and it's just starting to break down through this cycle. if you understand these cycles in mass human psychology which doesn't change um you you can see these things coming and so I I do feel like we might have one more push in in the AI space but overall I definitely feel like this market is getting tired.
>> Yeah. Yeah. It's been been been resilient more than many thought. Hey Chris I mean if if you're full of cash right now I mean that's what you're kind of looking at for some liquidity some dry powder then the next question is not just what you avoided it's kind of what you're stocking. So I mean you know cash is a position but it can't be the whole plan forever. Is there any sectors on your watch list night right now? I mean are you looking at defensive sectors like utilities or staples or healthcare? Anything other maybe it's dollar or bonds something outside of equities entirely?
>> Yeah well the the main thing we're looking at obviously when we move to cash cash is a position uh it's much better to earn 3 4% in cash than to watch your account fall 20 or 50%. Right. So cash is a very good position, but as you're right, you do want our money to work. When we don't have a signal, we in the equities market, we look elsewhere. Bonds aren't there yet. Bonds are still trying to find a bottom. The US dollar is actually looking very primed and ready. Has broken out of a big base. It's having a little bit of a pullback over the past couple sessions. when or if this stock market actually trend comes to an end, potentially even this week or or next week, we may move to the dollar, buy a dollar index ETF. So, as the dollar goes up in value, our account can go up in value. And we actually did this and saw this in 2022. The stock market fell 25%. The US dollar ETF rallied about 18%. The dollar does tend to have an inverse relationship. If the the economy and stock market's falling apart, the dollar tends to rally and it's really low volatility, which is nice. The biggest pullback in the dollar for that whole year was less than 4% and it moved 18%. Overall, so it's a low volatility uh high probability play. It's very comfortable and a lot of people don't like cash. They don't want to if especially if you're American, you might not want to hold a US dollar ETF. You're like, I'm already in American dollars.
>> But it is an opportunity. It's a very good opportunity to uh to make money and people don't look at cash or a currency in a lot of cases as a position. They want stocks or sectors or a commodity but uh sometimes the best spot is you know out of all of those.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Uh interesting time watching oil you know kind of come down on this with inflation as well. I got to ask you just quickly at the end here. I mean on margins have you been fearful of some of these margin calls? this liquidity side. Uh people using gold kind of that first liquid one to get out.
>> Uh margin's going to always be a problem. Everybody's always overleveraged, right? Everybody always buys a house just at the upside of their mortgage. Everybody always puts on a big enough position just that they're riding the edge of margin calls. So, I mean, it's just nature of people, right? Everybody wants to make as much as they can. There's going to be eventually when the market starts to sell off, there's going to be very strong margin calls. I mean, I think we're seeing some huge margin calls in Bitcoin and some of those other companies and strategies based around it. As precious metals start to break down even more, we're probably going to start to see a flood of margin calls in that space. I think a lot of people are clinging on hoping gold and silver find a bottom. In fact, as I was talking about the breakdown last week in precious metals, I I made a comment publicly and the amount of people saying, "This is support. I'm buying. I'm buying. This is the bottom." I'm like, "Oh, no. Here we go. This is typically when the general public react very sharply against something that I I say, it's usually, you know, probably going to come to fruition because the masses are all thinking the same thing and they usually get caught on the wrong side. So, margin calls are going to be a massive problem. As we talked about, the complex for precious metals is very small. When the selling starts, they just bleed out and silver drops extremely fast.
>> But again, long term, it's an opportunity. So, it's I'm not concerned about it. Um, overall,
>> yeah. Well, we we had that big run up in in gold, too. We had you on and you kind of had more of a a bearish kind of sentiment than some of the others and and you got those comments, too. But here we are watching this correction. I mean, I got to ask you, Chris, the single biggest mistake you see investors making in these types of sell-offs right now.
>> The biggest mistake um in the sell-offs, well, I think I think a lot of people end up selling when they they've already got a big hit. like a lot of people have taken big losses, right? So, I don't have a problem with people getting out of trades and exiting. I think it's better to take a loss and move on and regroup than to be stuck in something that could keep going lower and lower. So, if something is in a downtrend at some point, I think it's best just to bite the bullet and be like, "Wow, that that sucks." And take the hit. You know, there's not a the good thing about taking a loss, there's a couple things. Well, first of all, one, it means you're following some rules and you're actually trying to protect your wealth. Number two is you're going to have a loss on paper. So, when you do recalibrate and get into proper positions and start to grow your account, you can take those losses against your gains. So, it's not the end of the world, but people just look at a loss as as taking a hit and losing money. And uh people for their ego sake don't want to take a loss because it means you're wrong. Uh unfortunately, we're going to be wrong all the time in the markets because we don't know where it's going. We're really just following price and who can follow it the best. A lot of people try to predict, but that's not the way to do it.
>> Um, so taking losses, you just got to do it. I I believe it's part of it. You can use those losses against future gains and just start investing smarter, right? Getting into positions when the charts are saying, "Hey, this is a good position. It's fair value. The trend is up."
>> Yeah. Interesting time. On the macro front, and again, I know you're technical, but on the macro front, is there anything this summer you're watching? I mean, it wasn't didn't seem like a sell and may go away kind kind of typical market. Anything you think could kind of change this? Anything on the headline front?
>> Well, I mean, not so much from the macro. I think there's a whole rat's nest of all kinds of issues brewing, right?
>> I I would flip and just go more seasonalitywise, which kind of flips back to the technical side. We're in a seasonality time where we see June, July, well, right through to October, we tend to see both precious metals and the stock market start to lose their shine. They start to move lower overall. That's what happens on average. So again, the stock market showing signs of exhaustion. Gold and silver are breaking down. Seasonality wise is just saying, hey, this is a time when investors naturally start to sell positions and there's a downward pressure. You know, the whole macro side, I mean, it's tough. Like every day there's a different tweet or a different, you know, comment that completely changes views. There's a there's an agreement, there's not an agreement. There's no more missiles, there's missiles flying, right? So I that's why I don't follow that stuff too much. is really just noise. I look at the underlying trends. I look at all the different asset classes and where the money's flowing, right? There's defensive assets. There's um risk on assets where people where money is flowing and the big money flows. Are they looking for safety? Like right now, we have been seeing money flowing into utilities. Uh while the long-term chart of utilities doesn't look the greatest, over the past couple of weeks, it has been moving up and getting a lot of investor capital. And the way Wall Street and the financial system works is most people just have to stay invested and diversify. So we're seeing a lot of money moving out of look at the mega caps they the magnificent 7 they have been going down. Utilities have been going up. Big smart money is they they can't just liquidate because they have to stay actively investing for a lot of people for SEC purposes and to take their assets under management fee. So they move to slower sectors, right? Go to boring old utilities. It doesn't matter what happens in the world. We need electron electricity. We need um running water and all those things. So, we are definitely seeing money looking for safety, smart money, and it's coming out of the Magnificent Seven, which to me is an early warning sign.
>> Yeah. Yeah. You've said it before, man. All right. Christopher Million, the technical traders. Uh Chris, appreciate the the map here on a on a Monday where it could get interesting this month, but we'll watch those levels. Good to know you got some cash to deploy in there at uh you know, 38 3,600 bucks on the goldf.
>> Thanks, Jeremy. Always a pleasure. Thanks, Chris.
All right, that was Christopher Muan of the Technical Traders, and credit to him for a different take than most of you want here on this channel. Now, here's where it lands. Almost everyone we talked to says, "Hold gold, ride it out." Chris says, "Know your level and and don't be afraid to step aside." Now, you don't have to pick a side today, but it's worth knowing that both exist. You decide which one fits best for how you invest. And for more straight talk on gold in the markets, no hype, hit subscribe. Tell me in the comments, are you holding this gold pullback or would you be waiting for a lower price like Chris? I'm Jeremy Sap and for all of us here at Kiko News, thanks for watching.