Transcription
You are probably not buying the right cryptos without pretension. Today, we are going to talk about what to look for when buying an altcoin, and it's really hyper important. There are coins that pump and you don't know why. I'm thinking particularly of TRX, but I'll explain to you why today, precisely, and how to spot good projects, and also what to pay attention to on the chart. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is still available, 14 Hz last month on the SPT Algos. The algorithms that chained more than 50 TP, if not more, but more than sixty, I think. Again, these algos are free, and also right now, I've made you a little video that allows you to access the mentorship for free and the VIP Alcoin crypto on Discord for free as well. It will keep you updated on the best opportunities on altcoins. Me, I will only look at altcoins that fundamentally I find interesting, with really something behind them. I will share that with you for free on Discord. To access it, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. You just need to register on Bitgate, our partner link. It's the first link here. Make sure to go through this link, otherwise it won't work. And once that's done, you click here. It's a short 10-minute video that explains how to join the VIP Alcoin crypto for free, how to get access to the mentorship for free. So it's a training from A to Z. And also, if you wish, how to access the Algos and configure them.
So, to come back to the altcoin market, for example, we had a very recent pump of Crypto.com, so CRO, following news of investment from Trump's funds and so on, well, subsidiaries around Donald Trump. It's not Donald Trump personally who will invest in Chronos. And so we had this mega pump here. What you need to know is that there are often insiders who are aware of these kinds of movements, and I was telling you precisely, be careful, everyone is waiting for ATHs, everyone wants to go to the moon. Well, we'll get there, but in my opinion, there's a chance of topping out in this zone, and for now, well, it's possibly that we are perhaps topping out because these are clearly massive selling zones, and so you have to take profits on the way up. In short, is Crypto.com, for example, fundamentally good? Well, I'll answer that just after. We'll first see what fundamentally good means, because often we hear, "Yes, this crypto is fundamentally the future, it's incredible, it's this and that." Okay, but again, the most important thing is, what does it generate? So I don't know if I put the link in the description, otherwise you type this into your browser: defiama/revenue. I'll let you note it down, otherwise I hope I remembered to put it in the comment or description. Here, we literally have the revenues generated by the different protocols in crypto. And this is extremely important because transparency is becoming the norm. More and more cryptos are being created, more and more scam projects, scams, etc. For the good of the ecosystem and transparency, more and more protocols will be created that will display public revenues, and institutional investors, professionals, whales, VCs will increasingly, and are already doing so, focus on this type of project. And even more so, buyback will become the norm. What is buyback? It's using a portion of the generated profits, as in the stock market, to buy back your token. Apple, for example, at the end of the year, after paying all their taxes and so on, they declared net profits, paid employees, distributed dividends, the remaining cash, they don't let it rot. What they do is they often buy back shares of their stock to try to drive up the stock price and give confidence to investors and attract more investors. This is exactly what is happening in crypto, notably Hyper Liquide, which started doing this with its estimated revenues for 30 days at 100 million dollars, which makes more than a billion dollars per year, starting a buyback program. So I think they've increased it to 99% now, and that's why almost everything they earn, they buy Hyper Liquide. And when you look at the Hyper Liquide chart, why does it have such a beautiful trend? Because precisely, there's a monstrous buyback behind it, they keep buying every day with the fees they earn. Of course, in a bear market, it won't do much, especially since market activity will decrease, their revenues will decrease, so there will be less buying pressure, more sellers because there will be more people selling in this downward trend. But regardless, in the long term, it's very likely that this has a chance to create upward trends like Bitcoin has done since 2010.
On the other hand, a token that has hype, like AI 16 here, hype AGAN, etc., generates zero behind it. These are guys who created a project at the right time during a hype. Well, we see that it's not recovering, and it might not recover, or it might do what's called an exit pump. Notably, things we've already seen with cryptos in 2017 during the 2021 bull run. But if I take Dash, for example, here's Dash, it was the future, it's incredible. Next cycle, it's going to explode. It just did an exit pump and now it's doing nothing because it generates nothing and institutional investors are not interested at all. And you need to know that in crypto, 99% of projects are speculative, and it's exactly like in the stock market. That is to say, in the stock market, look at how many companies are listed on the Nasdaq, on the S&P 500, and look at how many companies there are in the world and in the United States. You'll see that it's really the elite of the elite that manages to survive and get listed on the stock market. And even when you're listed on the stock market, it doesn't even mean your company will grow. It can even be the opposite, potentially, because if investors are disappointed and start shorting your stock and it keeps falling, that doesn't help you, and so it reduces the shareholders' stake. Anyway, it's a big mess. And so in crypto, it's exactly the same. That is to say, we have a rather short window where the market literally explodes because there are a lot of investors arriving who don't really understand what they're doing. It's greed, speculation, but behind it, it creates huge bubbles that don't hold because there's nothing behind them, and you need to understand that. And so currently, the only pro, well, the only ones, there might be others, but the projects where there's literally transparency about what it will generate, etc., there aren't many. So of course, here there's Circle, which has been introduced to the stock market. So, for example, instead of saying, "Damn, which altcoin should I buy? Which altcoin should I expose myself to?" Well, on the stock market side, for example, if you want to invest in what are called crypto proxies. These are companies that will be correlated to the crypto market and will eventually follow the crypto market. That is to say, if you are bullish on crypto in the long term, Circle has a high chance of performing well. Well, here, Circle, for example, is returning to interesting zones. Of course, there was the initial phase of false speculation because the crypto market was hot. Now it's deflating nicely. And Circle, for example, the day it starts to look like this, it could be interesting to put a bet on Circle if you are bullish on the crypto ecosystem. I've already presented crypto stocks to you. If you're interested, I'll make another video about it. Don't hesitate to tell me in the comments. But we're going to talk about altcoins.
And so, in terms of profitable protocols, we have Tether, which is one of the most profitable companies in the world. I'm not telling you to buy Tether, it's useless. We have Circle, that will be more on the stock market. We have Hyperliquide, which is currently the most profitable protocol in crypto. These guys have crushed it in a few months. And I'm not saying it will keep going up, etc. I even think we are potentially at a top given Bitcoin's momentum and the last stop hunt that was made at the July highs. But in terms of retracement, well, I don't know if we'll get there, but as usual, you take your Fibonacci and you locate the following levels: 382, 618. So here, you take the last low. Here, you see, we came to take liquidity before sending this movement. 382, if we get back there, it's here, under these stops, approximately. So around $35 already, these are more interesting prices. And then, if we enter a retracement phase, again, nothing is certain, and we can't know, but this large monthly fair value gap here could be interesting, especially within the re-accumulation zone between $25 and $18. I don't know if we'll get there, but again, if we do, it's not the time to panic. It will probably be the time to position yourself, and at least you'll have assets that will generate real returns and have a chance to go up again, because every time you choose assets that generate nothing, I take for example GLD, which generates, I think, $1300 per month, which is ridiculous for a company. That is to say, they just sell tokens, they just dump them to keep the business alive, but well, they don't say that. And so, that's what causes it to go down with every pump. And so, if every time you buy the retracements of this thing, well, you keep buying. For example, it pumped, you buy back here, Thunderwater, it pumped, you buy back here, you're underwater, and so on and so on. And so it has little chance, in the current context, to recreate an upward trend because of, well, tightening liquidity, high interest rates, disinterest in the crypto market, etc., etc.
We also have TRX. So TRX, everyone is saying, "Damn, why is this thing going up? It must be manipulated, etc." Well, in fact, for institutions, it was the most profitable protocol in recent years. There you go. Now, I'm not telling you to buy it here, because it's very parabolic, but similarly, this kind of thing has a very high chance, if it ever returns to the re-accumulation zones, of being a good opportunity. Then you have all the exchange tokens. Exchanges don't publicly communicate their revenues, except for those listed on the stock market. So notably Coinbase, I think there's Kraken now, where Kraken is going to do an IPO. So they will have audits to prove what they earn. But we already know that Binance, Bitgate, Bybit, well, Bybit doesn't have a token, I think, but all the other exchanges make a lot of money. They are probably the most profitable businesses in the crypto market right now. And when you take BNB, for example, BNB here. Well, first of all, you have CZ who owns a huge stake and sells almost nothing, well, never sells anything. So three-quarters of BNB are locked and cannot be sold, and there you go, the trends it makes. Now, I know these aren't the most exciting things because you'll say, "Yes, but if we buy BNB, even if it goes back to $600, we'll maybe make a X2." But currently, the crypto market is like this. That is to say, if you want to find interesting opportunities, you'll have to accept that it's speculation and no longer long-term investment. It's not "I buy, I stay stuck for 3 years" because again, it's all speculation. The projects that have a chance to appreciate in the long term, like we see in the stock market, Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, etc., well, these will be our "Gafa" in crypto. And the crypto "Gafa" are, well, these are not necessarily the ones that will be the most capitalized because again, we have very capitalized things in the top here, but nevertheless, there will be chances, why am I here in trending, I don't care. Here, there will be chances precisely to see profitable projects climb in the rankings over the months. And so here we have TRX, we have lots of things, we have Pump, which is hated, but in terms of revenue, it's huge. They said, "Yeah, but it's crap, it allows you to make crap cryptos." That's it. It dilutes the market supply, it creates pump and dumps on uninteresting things. Yeah, but in the meantime, they've released their token. I'm not telling you to buy it either, but this is something to observe in the coming weeks to see what happens, because in terms of revenue, it's not bad at all. We have 51 million in the last 30 days, which is more than 500 million per year, which is really not bad.
Next, we have Jupiter. Well, Jupiter is struggling a bit here. I think it's Hyper Liquide that's stealing a large part of the spotlight. I also think its tokenomics, yes, tokenomics, hyper important, look at tokenomics, that is to say, what is tokenomics? The relisting of tokens, the supply that will be diluted. It's like the euro, we dilute billions of euros every year, thousands of billions even every 10 years. Well, over decades, it devalues the currency in the long term. Well, it's the same. Here, on the Jupiter side, we're starting to reach the end. But you see, it was very aggressive. It was very aggressive on the supply unlock. So that's what's causing it problems. On the other hand, once all its supply is released, there's a chance it could perform if Perlequin hasn't already taken all the market share by then, and if it still generates revenue. But well, it's okay. It's much less than Hyper Liquide, but it's okay. Of course, Ethereum here, no problem. Aave, Aave has also launched a buyback program, and other data to look at, everything that will be TVL. Do we trust this blockchain? Will we lock funds on it for staking, etc.? The answer is yes. If Aave's TVL explodes, it seems fundamentally good. There are things where TVLs are just decreasing. People are no longer interested at all in placing their money on this type of protocol. So here, we see that here, well, 18% of the market cap is staked. So that's rather interesting. But especially, they recently launched a buyback program, and revenues are likely to increase in the long term. The more people stake, use the protocol, etc., well, theoretically, the more Aave's revenues will increase, and the buyback will intensify. And when you look at the Aave chart, for example, well, it might collapse. Honestly, I'm telling you, I wouldn't buy here. It's not interesting, again, but I always tell you, re-accumulation zones are always interesting zones for those who want to position themselves for the medium to long term, not for those who want to swing trade. But here, when you see a nice re-accumulation zone with a good fair value gap that has never been retested, well, you can say that placing limit orders there might not be bad, and one day we'll get back to it. Yes, here it's a drop of 33% to 42%, but I'm telling you, it's normal for altcoins. Here, we had -71%. Here, we had from top to bottom -53%. Just on dips like that, we already had -48%. That's normal. So really, if you want to sometimes make 3x, 4x, you sometimes have to accept -30%, -40%, that's part of the game. And this, for example, would be a not bad zone.
And then, I'm not saying there aren't other good projects. What I'm saying is that if there's no transparency about how much it generates in terms of revenue, and moreover, there are projects that generate revenue that aren't necessarily performing. There are things I don't understand that generate, I don't know, I'm just saying, $20, $30, $40, $50 a day but they dump. For the most part, it's because the tokenomics aren't good, as I showed you just before. Others are just part of projects whose hype has passed, for example, artificial intelligence. So for that, you'll have to wait for it to come back and for the hype to return. It's mainly concentrated in the stock market and on Nvidia. But on the crypto market side, it's a bit disappeared. And so here, graphically too, avoid buying things that are completely vertical. It's not the time. Really, if you know nothing about analysis, buy when it's flat. And by the way, on Discord, we've created an indicator called the volatility index that allows you to know when it's a good time to position yourself for investment or not. This doesn't mean you have to buy as soon as the indicator is green, but when the indicator is green, what it tells you is that volatility is very low, and when volatility is very low, people are disinterested in the market, and people only want crypto when it's going up. And above all, it's probably a good window. For example, here on the indicator, during this whole phase, nobody wanted to talk about cryptocurrencies in 2022, 2023, even until 2024 before Trump's election. And it's here, it's the best time to position yourself. Now, we're starting to leave the low volatility phases. That doesn't mean you shouldn't invest in them. Retracements are bought without any problem. But you need to understand that we are in the trending phase here. And then, you also have the indicator that works on daily, or again, when it's green. For example, here, the indicator has turned green again. This was a good time to find buys, quite simply. And on top of that, you combine everything we've learned, the re-accumulation zones, etc. A little Fibonacci. Okay, I'm in a re-accumulation zone, my indicator is green. Well, it's a good opportunity to consider positioning yourself.
Also, how to know when the market is overheating, that's an indicator, but well, you can find it everywhere. What we did regarding spreads. And what are spreads? It's the difference in price between the spot market and the perpetual market. It's simple, when it starts to turn blue, it means people are buying with leverage. It's very often the end of the rise. For example, here on Aave, it hasn't happened yet. Maybe it won't happen. Maybe it will. For example, if Aave suddenly starts to accelerate and the spreads increase, it will probably be the top window. It's possible we've already topped out, it's not impossible. It's just that here, there hasn't been this excitement yet that we often see on altcoins at some point. Maybe it happened on other altcoins, I haven't necessarily checked, obviously. Perhaps XRP on its recent pump to $3, we would have had this kind of positive spread. Yes, you see it perfectly here, it's here that people started to FOMO, boom, instant punishment. Well yes, when you're at the highs and people are entering on breakouts, and these breakouts are hot, and on top of that, they're FOMOing with leverage, they get trapped. So these are data that I will observe, that you can also observe. High volatility, people are buying on derivatives. Is it time to position yourself? No. Super low volatility, people don't want it anymore. Negative spread. Yes, success. Very low volatility, negative spread, people don't want it anymore. It's time to, well, it's time to position yourself. Here, high volatility, people are FOMOing. Is it time to buy at these highs? No. Okay, so these are little things to have, and also, well, observe products that generate revenue. Also, Defi cannot list everything, there are things that are not transparent, you have to do your own research as well. But in the stock market, it's the same. There are tons of projects, you say, "Damn, the business model is incredible. If they can do this and that and that and all, it's good." But behind that, in crypto, we have good technological tools, but when you think about monetization, you realize that these guys can't monetize that. So it's about saying, "Okay, this is not long-term investment. They made a good project during a hype, it's likely to perform for a few weeks, then get dumped." I'm speculating on that. On the other hand, if I buy high and I want to sell higher, and I realize I'm starting to get stuck, don't hesitate to leave because again, it's not an investment thesis, it's a speculative thesis. And I think many investors in the crypto market don't realize it, they think about investment when they should be thinking about speculation on speculative projects like AI, etc., which were bubbles that completely burst. Unlike things like Hyper Liquide, etc., where it's gaining momentum, generating tons of revenue, increasing buybacks, etc., so buying pressure. So, even if there are retracement phases because there will be, again, when you take an Apple that makes hundreds of billions in cash every year, well, it's not because of that that there are no corrections, but again, that's why Apple continues to last in the long term because precisely in terms of revenue, it's extraordinary. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc., same, they generate monstrous cash, and so when there are big dips, yes, you buy them. But on the other hand, completely speculative things, we've had recently, out of nowhere, that started to make strategic Bitcoin reserves. The chart was dormant. These guys did this, it did this, and now it has already dumped again, it's back to zero. It's a hype because there's nothing behind it. It will probably rise again if Bitcoin starts to accelerate to $150,000, $160,000, $200,000, but otherwise, it won't do much. So it's important to understand that we are in this environment. Keep in mind that interest rates are high, that interest in the crypto market is at its lowest, that liquidity is scarce, expensive, interest rates are high. Borrowing money is expensive, and it's not a favorable environment for extreme speculation. 2021 was extraordinary because rates were at zero. We've never had so much liquidity injected. 2017 was the beginning of the crypto market. Let's say, really, the beginning of altcoins. We were at market caps of $2-3 million. They went up 100x, 1000x because we were at very small market caps, and so with very little money, it was very easy to drive up prices. There weren't many cryptocurrencies at the time. So when the first bubble formed, everyone came to the crypto market. We had this huge bubble, and we were also in QE in Europe and China. So we were in monetary printing by the ECB and the Chinese central bank. Things we no longer have currently, with a market on which we have a huge supply and many people also looking to speculate only on trends to take their gains quickly. Notably, exchanges receive a lot of tokens when they do a listing. So they don't hesitate to dump as well. It's money for them. It's what allows them to survive currently. VCs too, as soon as they get their tokens back, they've negotiated a lot. When they tell you, "Yes, the press is at 3 cents." You have VCs who bought five times cheaper who will dump directly on you at the project's exit, and you don't understand. "Damn, but we're at the listing price of 4 cents, who's selling?" It's Celsius, who got it 10 times cheaper while they made you believe it was at 3 cents. In short, there are a lot of scams like that. You need to understand that this is the crypto market currently, and if you want to make investment theses and not speculative ones, currently what's safest and will continue to be, and what will become the norm, is public revenue with a buyback program on top of it. So continuous buying pressure to give confidence and start attracting institutional investors, and why not also hope for ETFs later on. I think it will become an obsession for most crypto projects to try to have their ETFs. I'll make you a video on ETFs, they're potentially coming soon. Maybe a lot of rejections, a lot of approvals at the end of the year. It's planned. I don't know when it will be released. I need to film that for you. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you in the description box of the links, the trading school for those who want to train with me, to know what I do on the market. Also the algos, mentorship, VIP, Alcoin, all that is free. The only paid thing is the school. I'll let you check all that. These are the first links in the pinned comment. See you soon. Have a good day.