Transcription
Yesterday, we covered the wide receivers. Today, it's the running backs that you all are drafting with extreme confidence. Yes, 17 games were played last year. Either these names gave you joy or plenty of grief. They were on your roster, and now we have a draft and free agency in our back pockets, and they are being selected in a much different draft slot than where they finished last season. That's what it's all about. Names drafted much earlier or later than they finished the 2025 season. And speaking of earlier, Hayden, I mean, the prices on running backs this year are higher than ever. Uh, are they even high enough? I think that's a question worth asking.
Yeah, I looked into this. So, what I did here on this crazy chart here is I looked at where they finished last year in fantasy points over placement per game. So, that's my favorite metric to look across fantasy positions. Uh, and then I compared it to the underdog ADP. So, this is both half PPR on the scoring and on the ADP here. And I took the top 25 biggest differences on each side. So, players getting drafted way earlier or way later. And you see on the running backs chart, almost all of the 25 guys being drafted after where they finished last year are running backs. So, even though the prices are up right now, if you're just looking at what happened last season versus the price tags, the running backs as a whole have not moved high up enough, which is pretty crazy. And that goes from like the top-end guys, you know, your Derrick Henry's, De'Von Achane's, Kyren Williams', all the way to the next tier like the Rhamondre Stevenson's, Tyjae Spears', Woody Marks. Those type of guys are being drafted way, way later. There's only a couple exceptions where running backs are now being drafted a lot earlier than where they finished last year, and they're pretty obvious, like Breece Hall, going into a bigger role. But just in general, running back prices are up, and I would argue not high enough, folks.
Well, we'll talk about that as we go along in this episode and obviously this summer when we talk about draft strategies, but let's dive into some specific names. We'll talk about the much earlier ones to open. And this goes to the top of the draft. I mean, Saquon Barkley is drafted as the running back seven. He finished last year as the running back 15 in points per game. Hayden, I think there is an argument to make that Saquon Barkley, despite being at the one-two turn, which is a high pick for all of you, is still potentially one of the most undervalued assets in fantasy football this season.
I got him ranked 11th overall. He's my RB5, so I'm with you. This isn't in half PPR here. There's just a lot of positive updates for this year's Eagles versus last year's one. Offensive coordinator, we're expecting that to get better. Offensive line health should get better with Lane Johnson and Dickerson and those guys missing time or playing through injuries. And then Saquon Barkley, uh, Barkley only converted one of his 11 goal-line carries for touchdowns last year. That's just going to get better, uh, as the entire environment around him gets a little bit better. Um, so yeah, I'm not expecting this to be the 2024 version, but could I sandwich, you know, 2024 versus last year and come up with a win? I certainly can. So I think it comes down to the offensive line health plus offensive coordinator. And I thought Saquon Barkley largely looked about the same as he did the year prior, when he was one of the best running backs in the league. I think maybe a slight decrease. Uh, he's 29 years old now, but for the most part, he's going to get the rock a ton. And if they ever got away from the tush push stuff, like you can add a couple more touchdowns to that.
I think there's a possibility that they do that. Jalen Hurts just doesn't want to run as much as he used to and get put in those situations as much as he used to. Just overall top-down view of the Philadelphia Eagles. The most important part for them is about getting this running game right. You know, so much of the conversation this summer is going to be about what Sean Mannion is going to do with Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith and take this passing game, you know, to the next iteration of it. But to me, none of that matters unless they can get this running game back to closer to where it was in 2024, because that is what changes the math. That is what changes the defense and the coverage more often than what Jalen Hurts is going to be as a pure pocket passer and pick apart a defense. I mean, even last year in a down season, again, as the running back 15 in points per game, he still was the running back seven in expected fantasy points per contest. So, the workload was really still there that we needed. Yet, they averaged and were 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt. The Eagles running backs were. Compare that to 2024, they ranked second. They were seventh in explosive runs this past season with 58, which is still a nice number, but compare that to 2024. That was at 77, the second most. And yeah, I mean, I was one of the people that said, "Of course we can take Saquon Barkley early in drafts last year, despite him getting what, 400 touches the previous year and you know, all the permutations that typically fall from that and they're all negative." Um, I this is just my eye test. I did not see like a major drop off, but in the numbers, there were major drop offs. I mean, again, two years ago, he had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards. And then last season, only two touchdown runs longer than 13 yards. So, if he really hasn't changed overall as a player, if he's still 90% of the player that he was back in 2024, all that we need is just a cohesive and solid offensive line and running game, and then we are getting much closer to that running back two, three finish than we are to me as the absolute floor of that running back 15 finish that we got last year.
Yeah, to put some numbers on that, Lane Johnson played nine games, Landon Dickerson 14 games, Cam Jurgens 14 games. Those players were playing through injuries even when they were out there. So hopefully they're just a little bit healthier. I think they are going to miss Jeff Stoutland, like maybe the best offensive line coach ever, but at the same time, the new OC coming to town comes from the Packers, who had, you know, Josh Jacobs in a very, very fantasy-friendly role here. So, um, I mean, even last year, everything hit the fan, and he was still, you know, like a round two, round three type of guy. So, I I would be wanting to draft him at the one-two turn. I'd rather have him than Austin Ekeler.
At some point in the summer, we will basically reorder how we think the top 15 picks should go in fantasy football. Uh, Saquon Barkley has already, in the last month, climbed ahead of another running back in the second round, and so he hasn't always been at this one-two turn. I would rank him even higher than this. I am very, very pro Saquon Barkley this season. And yeah, I mean, the offensive line stuff could go one way or the other. Like, you can easily make the case that without Jeff Stoutland, that it's going to get worse. At the same time, uh, it if you read between the lines, there's a lot of positivity and optimism that this is like the new wave of the future here for the Philadelphia Eagles, and only things can go up versus where it was in 2025.
Okay, next name, Kenneth Walker III. Yep, we're doing it again this summer. Drafted as the running back 10 this year, finished last year, as we all know, as a running back 28 in points per game. So, where we at with Ken Walker on a new team, the Kansas City Chiefs? I'm buying this price tag. I got him ranked 13th overall. His ADP is at 16th on Underdog. He signed a $28 million guaranteed contract. This running back group for the Chiefs has just been horrific for a very long time since 2022. Uh, their success rate has been higher than what the Seahawks have had with Kenneth Walker, but the explosive play rate is like light years different. And that's crazy because the Seahawks offensive line has not even been good. And you can make an argument that this Chiefs interior offensive line is pretty damn impressive here. So, I think you can argue that this is the best offensive line Kenneth Walker's ever played behind with Andy Reid, who has, uh, it's been a little bit, but if you go all the way back, there's been some crazy fantasy seasons. Deuce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and I think LeSean McCoy and Kenneth Walker, there's a lot of actual similarities between those players. Those guys went absolutely nuts. Uh, and just to put that into perspective here, LeSean McCoy's final three seasons with Andy Reid, his 17-game pace was 1,800 scrimmage yards. So, I think there is a huge ceiling with Kenneth Walker. I think he's shown that he can at least catch the football. He's not like super reliable in pass protection, but he's competing with like, it's Amari DeMarcado, Emonte Jemison, Bucky Brooks. I mean, it's absolutely nobody's out there. I think the entire offseason plan has been Kenneth Walker is just going to change the entire formula. We don't have to really worry about wide receivers, so I want to buy.
I mean, that's it. Like, we always say that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks. The only substantial move the Chiefs made in this offseason on offense was bringing in Kenneth Walker III. And why is that? Well, we talked about it on a weekly basis last year that the Chiefs running game had a high success rate that they were hitting singles with, you know, whatever Kareem Hunt was and even Patrick Mahomes scrambling and whoever else you're going to throw out there. Now, with their wallets, they told you that that's not enough. That that didn't matter that much in the win-loss column, and that only gets you so far. That you have to now, in this version of the NFL, with how coverages and defenses are set up, you have to generate explosives in the running game, especially if you can't create them in the passing game, which the Chiefs have struggled to do over the last couple seasons. And they can do that. I mean, they just need a talent like Kenneth Walker III because they ranked last year 10th in rush yards before contact per attempt, but then were 32nd in rush yards after contact per attempt. So Kenneth Walker, we debated it and we discussed it last offseason. As an individual talent, sure, he's going to have some stuff rates. He's going to have some negative runs, but very few players create the game-changing moments that he does. And as we saw that when Zach Charbonnet went down, he has three-down talent. He has workhorse talent. And that goes back to him averaging 17 and a half fantasy points over the last 26 games that he's played 60-plus% of the snaps. He should play 65-70% of the snaps this season. And I cannot wait to see it because I am certainly would have gotten, and maybe not healthy for 17 games, but we would have gotten magical numbers from K9 last year if he was given this type of opportunity, and now he gets it on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Yeah, I think it's a top three, top five outcome here for Kenneth Walker. Uh, if everything kind of breaks his way, just the history with Andy Reid and how good Kenneth Walker is and how desperate they are for this type of player, it's all kind of aligning. I just looked real quick on Yahoo. His ADP is at 21. So, I think some of our redraft leagues, they have not got up to exactly where we are in baseball. And I want to be just doubling down. If he's like a late round two pick, he's like somebody that we will just be not talking or we can't stop talking about him as we get closer to redraft time.
And there's one more name. You brought up a bunch of Philadelphia Eagles running backs. I'll also throw in Kareem Hunt during Andy Reid's time and his rookie season with the Kansas City Chiefs, where a rookie Kareem Hunt finished as the running back five in points per game that season. I mean, this is special stuff with.
Ken Walker. There's there's more numbers here. Okay. Um, last season the Chiefs were 20th in explosive carries just overall, and they had just 29 explosive plays in 2024 of 25-plus yards. Only five teams had less. Only five teams had less. Now, that did jump up to 37 last year, but if you again, you package like the frustrations that I have had when watching the Chiefs over the last two seasons. Kenneth Walker is the difference in all that. He is the investment to change all of that. It's, you know, not the first-round pick in Xavier Worthy. It's not all these similar types to Rashee Rice and lesser than, unless, you know, Xavier Worthy becomes the best deep threat in the NFL. Like, this offense is going to the next level. And if it does, it is Kenneth Walker III doing it. That's for sure.
Yeah, I can't believe the rushing lines at 950 yards. I mean, like that that just seems like that seems like hundreds of yards off to me. But maybe maybe I'm crazy.
All right, before we go any further, again, this is a great grouping of episodes that we have here. If you hadn't gone and watched the wide receiver version of that, do it right after this episode. And while you're there, hit that subscribe button. It's totally free to all of you. Uh, and we've got content throughout the summer helping you get ready for your fantasy football league, your fantasy football draft, and just to beat up on your buddies. That's it. So, hit subscribe.
Next, a channel favorite for a very long time, and one I just don't know where I'm at this offseason. This is David Montgomery. He's being drafted right now as running back 20 on his new team, going from the Detroit Lions over to the Houston Texans. Last year, he finished as the running back 31 in points per game. So, let me know where and if I should be drafting David Montgomery in this spot.
I got him ranked RB 25, 64th overall. His ADP is at 50. So I am slightly behind on David Montgomery. Long story short, I just don't think he profiles that much different than Tony Pollard, Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jaylen Warren, and those guys just get drafted a lot later. I think that the history of the Texans is is fascinating. So since 2023, that's when DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud both showed up. Uh, that 2023 season, it was not that pretty. That was the Dameon Pierce versus Devin Singletary uh battle. Devin Singletary was the RB35. Uh, they traded for Joe Mixon. They signed him to a $27 million contract. He was the RB9 and RB5 usage. Uh, and then last year was Dameon Pierce as the running back 35. So two of the three seasons have been horrific. One season was awesome, but that was also Joe Mixon after trading for him and then extending to a big contract. David Montgomery, they traded for him. His contract is two years, $16 million with only $10 million guaranteed. It's like nowhere near the Joe Mixon stuff. And then I also just have to wonder, how good is David Montgomery at this point? He's had uh nine straight seasons with at least 180 touches. That's going back to Iowa State. He's going to be 29. That's just like a lot of wear and tear here. And then I wasn't a huge fan of Dameon Pierce, but Dameon Pierce is going to play the passing situations here. So it's like, okay, I've probably got an early down role for David Montgomery here. And the offensive line's been 31st in EPA per carry, 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023, uh, because the offensive line has been so bad. So, I would be pretty surprised if like David Montgomery was like a true difference maker. I think that he can ride this workload, um, because they want to be pretty balanced, to a flex, you know, maybe low-end RB2 range. I just don't see the pathway to kind of pay off like compared to some of the upside picks around him. So, I'd rather park him right next to, you know, Chuba Hubbard, who we'll get to in a second.
Yeah, the upside picks just right now on Underdog. Terry McLaurin, Cole Kmet, Jaylen Waddle, Jameson Williams are the four picks ahead of him. Then right after it's Davante Adams, and then, you know, this cluster of running backs that it truly might take me all summer to figure out how I really want to stack them in TreVeyon Henderson, DeAndre Swift, Bucky Irving, Quinshawn Judkins, and then Breece Hall. Still, yeah. Yeah, that's where I'm at right now.
But we'll see where we are in a couple weeks. Uh, look, specifically in David Montgomery, like the pro and con side is the same. It's all about volume. And that always scares me when both sides make the same case for their outcomes. Again, for the positive, you can say that he's the only one in the backfield with really 14-plus touch chops on any given week that he has the workload that we want for a running back two, which is exactly where you're drafting him as running back 20. Um, for the downside, he's 29, as you said, and it's all about workload. And the Texans are in year two of trying to fix their offensive line, so it turns into, you know, a viable fantasy backfield. I mean, this is the profile that is typically destined for, you know, running back dead zone stuff. Albeit now this is like the fifth round versus the third or fourth round, for example. But like, you know, we can look at Chuba Hubbard last year or Isiah Pacheco or James Conner. Uh, Rashaad White was even the running back 14 in 2024 in drafts, uh, that September, and then even Mike Davis a few years back. So like if this hits, I can tell you exactly how it hits. It's David Montgomery lasting for 17 weeks, getting 14-plus touches on any given week, and Houston improving their red zone drives and red zone efficiency, and the offense just being a tick, tick up. But if it fails, then again, I think the outcome is just as obvious. And maybe unfortunately, we've seen that negative outcome happen in this archetype a bit too often.
I think there's like a chance that Dameon Pierce makes this like pretty close to even by the end of the season as well. I think it'll be for sure David Montgomery to start this thing. Uh, missed tackles per touch. There's a rate stat from PFF. Last year was at 18%. The previous year's 27%, 214%. So slight, slight drop in forcing missed tackles last year. Uh, and yeah, he's just been playing behind a really good offensive line and now he's got one of the worst in the league. Last note, I have Nick Caley, the offensive coordinator. Last year, couldn't say I was like super optimistic from what I was seeing out there. Uh, he ended up choosing a committee backfield, and then he also just grew up watching the Patriots, who were always chopping this backfield into twos, sometimes even into threes here. So, I think my baseline case is he's going to be the early down guy. Dameon Pierce is going to handle a lot of the pass game work, and then you're just talking about, you know, you're signing up for the Texans offensive line and whatnot. So, I I think he's got like a somewhat of a realistic floor here. I just like the first pick in the fifth round. Like I want to like I want to live a little. I just feel like.
You want to draft someone with the first pick of the fifth round that has a chance of returning value as a second or third round pick.
Yeah, I can see him being a three, four round guy, like a slight win here. I just, I'm just like not buying into a huge ceiling anymore.
So, just talking about the offensive line real quick. Again, they have chopped and changed it year-over-year. We know Urser is going into his second season at left tackle. They brought in Brian Smith to play the right tackle spot, and then some combo of Evan Brown and Wyatt Teller at left guard. Then they spent a first-round pick on Kelechi Osemele, who didn't have, you know, a ton of college reps at center, but he is going to play center here. And then they gave a contract to Kendrick Green to extend him this offseason. And that's the group. And so you hope that they, you know, can become a really good and solid unit. And, you know, there were some numbers last year that were fine. Again, they were 18th in red zone drives per game, the Texans were, but then 29th in red zone touchdown success rate. They were 11th in yards before contact per attempt. That was a big Nick Chubb stat, but then tied for 32nd in yards after contact per attempt, which is also what Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce were last season. So, I just don't know. Like, I would love for this to be 26-year-old David Montgomery instead of 29-year-old David Montgomery.
Right? And I mean, a rookie center changing positions, like does that not just wreak like, I mean, that's that makes me, a rookie center in general is makes me nervous when he is also changing positions to do it. Like, that's that's a lot. I could not say that, uh, Caley and Stroud were lights out in terms of setting protections and those type of things this last year.
Yeah, I mean, C.J. Stroud used to never in college, excuse me, in the NFL set protections with Bobby Johnson. Like this is now in year two of it, basically. Chuba Hubbard is next. Drafted as running back 27 right now, despite finishing as running back 39 in points per game. So, simple question, are you in or out at this price tag?
I'm slightly in on Chuba Hubbard. I have him and David Montgomery like right next to each other, and they're nowhere next to each other in terms of ADP. I just want to like hit on this like timeline. Back in 2024, played 77% of the snaps. That was the first year with his current coaching staff. He was the RB12 on RB7 usage. His rush yards over expected was the RB4. Like that was a fantastic season. And that would be a fantastic outcome at this ADP. Then last year, he starts ahead of Rico Dowdle. He was the RB19 for the first four weeks of the season. Then he picks up an injury. His return from injury was horrific. He only had 50 total yards in just one regular season after Rico Dowdle went crazy. His rush yards over expected was now at negative 21% after being at positive 24% back in 2024. And then they get to the playoffs, and then Chuba Hubbard's the alpha, 17 opportunities, scores two touchdowns. Now what? So now the we move on from Rico Dowdle. We've had the pros and cons of this Chuba Hubbard profile, and the guy behind him has torn his ACL a couple times in a row. He's out there. They're ramping him up. It sounds like he's on pace to play, but I've seen Chuba Hubbard for a huge part of the calendar be a fringe RB1 in fantasy, and now I'm just kind of waiting for Chuba, for for Jonathan Brooks to kind of steal his job. This is kind of the profile that I think the projections sometimes underplay because the sexier backup is going to take his job. There's only so many backfields where it's a complete flipping because of the coaching staff, and Jonathan Brooks, like if he had a setback, nobody would be surprised in response to that. So, I really like all these running backs in this range. These guys used to be priced in the fourth and fifth round.
These guys used to be in the David Montgomery territory. And now we're getting them two rounds later.
And you look at their projections versus DK Metcalf and fantasy points. Who's going to be in your flex? It's going to be all these running backs versus all these wide receivers. So, I'm gravitating to all these guys. And I think that Chuba Hubbard, for the most part, has been a totally fine starting running back in the NFL, except when he's injured.
Right. It's like when he loses five to 15% of his ability, then he's extremely replaceable.
Yes. You know, uh, I think that's why it's always difficult for me to talk about Chuba Hubbard because I get the positives of it. Even dating back to his time at Oklahoma State, like he's a grinder out there. He can take the volume. He can, you know, pick up the yards that are blocked for him. And, you know, the coaching staff freaking loves him. You know, they they make him like the poster player for what they want the organization to be. At the same time, as you saw last year, when Chuba wasn't healthy and Rico was, then you got 200-plus rushing yard games and total yard gains and like explosive plays, missed tackles, forced, twisting, turning, all this game-changing stuff that I'm not sure Chuba really has in his bag as frequently. So, I mean, in order for this to happen, he needs to stay healthy, and the offensive line needs to stay healthy. This was shocking to me, and Reeves posted this, that the Panthers' most used offensive line combination last year only played 20% of the snaps together. That was the fourth lowest percentage across the league. After Robert Hunt and Brady Christensen at right guard, I mean, that was a complete disaster when the other guys had to step in there. When those two players were in, it was quite good. We know now they have tons of tackle depth, much less guard depth. But again, if you have a solid five starters, which they do, plus some again backups at tackle, then this thing can work. And if the offensive line is good, then that's going to make Chuba Hubbard better. But I love Jonathan Brooks. I want Jonathan Brooks to be healthy. I know he's still super young when we talk about running backs across the board, but he really has to string together a handful of games, like even more than Rico did last year for the Panthers to just totally replace Chuba Hubbard, because again, even with Rico's monstrous performances, they just immediately wanted to turn back to Chuba Hubbard once they were both equally healthy.
Yeah. And Chuba's been like an honorary captain for points of his career that he's really trusted by this coaching staff and stuff. So, I think I don't think it's going to be as easy as like Jonathan Brooks into a bell cow role. Like, if you're the coaching staff, his first year back from his second knee tear. Are you going to really trot him out there for 70% of the snaps? I just find that unlikely. I feel like the first half of the year it'll be Chuba Hubbard as a lead back, and then if Jonathan Brooks is as good as we think, then he starts kind of taking over. I think some of the signs will be there where we can possibly trade him if you're in the redraft league and whatnot. So, Chuba not the sexiest pick, but sometimes the unsexy picks at running back in best ball and half PPR are like those have been like home run picks in general. So, I really like this price tag.
Okay, on the running back breakouts video, the thumbnail is actually Breece Hall, and he is the one with the largest gap of where he finished last year and where he's being drafted this year among all running backs. So, I did just want to bring up his name and see if you wanted to say anything about him. He finished last year as running back 54 in points per game, and this year he's being drafted as running back 25. Again, an extended conversation in that running back breakouts video. Anything you want to add here onto this video?
Uh, I mean, one of these two backs between Chris Rodriguez and Hall are like just way underpriced. I mean, Travis Etienne was the RB1 on RB14 usage. Liam Cohen went absolutely crazy with Bucky Irving and Rashaad White the previous seasons. This is a really great offense. It's just divvying up the touches. We're going to learn more. It sounds like Chris Rodriguez is getting back to healthy. I didn't trust Breece Hall. I'm watching. I don't think that Liam Cohen did, but the athletic difference between Hall and C-Rod are substantial. So, like no one should be very confident in their Hall projection. I think this is about the right range to take a dart throw. But I do, I do still find Chris Rodriguez to be pretty interesting, at least in standard and half PPR. And I think once we get back to training camp and he's out there in week one, I think that his price tag will start to go up because I do think there's going to be, there he is. He's first in the order of the drills. There's going to be like those tweets. Shipley is going to say, "Hey, he might lead this team in carries." So, I do think that this ADP could end up kind of tightening. And I think that should be C-Rod going back up, not Hall necessarily falling backwards.
Yeah, I don't want to totally rehash this conversation. I think my Breece Hall exposure is going to be far, far, far higher than my Chris Rodriguez exposure. Now, the only thing standing between that being even higher are the names that Breece Hall is being drafted around. I mean, this 5-6 turn is freaking loaded. And this is kind of the J.J. Price conversation, too, where it's Christian Watson, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, and Tyler Warren. And like, I just want all those guys.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. For sure.
I still like that Hall is after, again, this cluster that we brought up of DeAndre, TreVeyon, Swift, Irving, and Quinshawn. I think there's a chance as we get closer to the season that Breece Hall jumps, if not one, two, or three of those names. The longer that Chris Rodriguez is out, the more and more love that Hall is going to get in that regard. So, I would get all my shares as much as possible right now, too.
Yeah. Totally RB25 in ADP. He's more likely to be the RB15 or RB35 than the RB25 by the season ends. We just don't know which one.
I like that a lot. Okay, let's flip this on its head then. Let's talk about players and running backs specifically that are being drafted and selected much later than where they finished among backs last year. And once again, for basically the third straight season, we start with Kyren Williams. Yes, he finished last year as the running back eight in points per game. He's drafted as the running back 16 right now. You know, Hayden, just a cool 1300 total yards and double-digit touchdowns in each of the past three seasons still does not make you a top 15 scorer and drafted running back in the eyes of the public heading into the next season.
Yeah, I mean, this is tough because I like all the running backs in this range, and I'm one of the guys I'm drafting him as the RB16 in my rankings right now. So, I I can't say that the public has this one wrong. I think he's a totally strong third-round pick here. He did that last year when the Rams were first in points per game, yards per game, and success rate. Their rushing success rate as a team last year was one of the best of all time. All time. Uh, their left tackle right now might be going to jail. Uh, there's been a lot of allegations. We'll see if he's even going to be eligible. And they do not have any tackle depth right now. And there, I think the Rams offense, I would project them to be top three. It's also just extremely fragile, and just like how everything is built up there, aside from obviously having Sean McVay. So, if anything changes there, if Blake Corum mixes in a little bit, I think this Blake Corum, Kyren Williams one-two punch, I think it's here to stay. Kyren two-thirds, Blake Corum one-third. They're interchangeable. I think they're going to keep it that way. Uh, so yeah, I think that we should be discounting what he did last year because it's unlikely the Rams run nearly as hot as he did the season prior, but that makes him a totally fine third-round pick versus being what, a second-round pick last year. Yeah, this is always tough. Uh, because Kyren always stays healthy, and then he always outlasts the ones that don't stay healthy for the entire season, and then he's on a really good team and environment, and that just lends itself to like really quality fantasy output. And, you know, even what the difference between 2020, 2024 and 2025 is that Blake was involved, and it still didn't really matter in terms of a fantasy outcome and fantasy output. It was still very good from Kyren Williams. Now, you know, some games it was like you said, two-to-one drives. Some games, like in blowouts, it was one-to-one. He did have 10 red zone touchdowns compared to Blake Corum's five as well. But, you know, Kyren only had 59% of the backfield touches over the last 12 games, the final 12 games of last season. And that's like the running back 18. But as we always talk about, just because you're running back 18 in touches doesn't mean that you're going to finish the running back 18 overall because you're on a better team that scores more points, and that's what projects you and overestimates compared to just what the averages are out there. But you brought up like the Aler Jackson stuff at left tackle was a big thing because this is the second time he's popped up for something like this, and the NFL can lay the hammer when that's the case. And you look at their tackle depth, and I think it's Quenton Quibery who's their backup left tackle, and they didn't spend the, you know, 16th overall pick on the left tackle spot. So, yeah, I mean, that changes the math, and then you hope for, you know, offensive line health outside of that to stay in the same spot. So, yeah, I mean, I'm drafting Kyren of where he's at. But just when you stack all the names, despite 1300 total yards and double-digit touchdowns in three straight seasons, I still do have a tough time of ranking him higher than like running back 50.
Yeah, I just think last year, like even in the playoffs, the final four games of the year, he played between 50 and 63% of the snaps. Back in 2024, his lowest snap rate in games was at 68%, and most of his games were actually above 85%. So, I mean, that's a huge difference going from year-over-year. So, if the Rams are somehow like seventh in scoring this year, 10th in scoring if injuries kind of pop up, then I do think he's going to slide more so because I don't think they're just going to remove Blake Corum all of a sudden. Um, so yeah, I think he's a fine pick. I think like there is some low-end outcomes here if, you know, some injuries pile up with the Rams.
Possible stupid question here, but I'll ask it. We didn't see Blake really touch the field until his second season, and then he did, and he took like a third of the touches, a little bit more in some games. Now we're in Jarquez Hunter's second season.
Does he exist?
Um, exist. I'm not sure. I saw some Ronnie Rivers tweets about from this offseason that he's still ahead of Hunter. I really liked Hunter, so I'm I'm I'm hoping for him. I don't like his chances, I will say that.
Yeah, I just remember because I go back and watch those, you know, behind-the-scenes diaries that these teams put up on YouTube, and Sean McVay was like, "The only player that I want on day three is Jarquez Hunter, and he's the only one that matters." And then.
You never know.
You never know if he's even going to be on this roster heading into this year.
Okay, we already said his name before, but now he's on a different team. Let's talk Rico Dowdle of the Pittsburgh Steelers. We know last year with the Panthers, he finished as the running back 20 in points per game, including some top five overall weeks. Now he's drafted as the running back 32. Is that fair? Because he reunites with his former head coach back in 2024 and Mike McCarthy, when they both ran the Cowboys.
This is a fascinating one. And I would say that this is one of the most even competitions going into training camp. One that we have to get right because last year the Steelers were fourth in running back fantasy usage. Kenny Gainwell and Jaylen Warren were both top 26 players on a per-game basis. That's in half PPR, and obviously Gainwell did a lot better in full PPR. Uh, this offensive line, I think is pretty dang good. Their interior, especially, is really strong, and they at least have some upside players at tackle, and one of them is already fantastic. It's just figuring out the other one. Aaron Rodgers' history of targeting his running backs is positive. Mike McCarthy plays with a lot of pace. Now, McCarthy is going to be bringing a totally different styled offense. Looked back at this. He's had 24 seasons as an OC or head coach, which is like, first off, is like remarkable. 24 of them. Uh, his teams on average have finished 11th in pass attempts, 18th in rush attempts. A lot of that is three wide receiver sets, throw the ball everywhere. Um, I think it might be a little bit more even here. So I think in general, there is volume to be had. What is the split between them? I am leaning more towards Jaylen Warren because I think that he kind of fits this like pass-first, three-wide receiver set offense. One that obviously when you trade for Michael Pittman in the draft, a second-round wide receiver, like I feel like that's what they're going to be gravitating to more so than last year's tight end-heavy nonsense. Uh, Rico Dowdle is going to be like, close the game out type. But I do think that Jaylen Warren is the slightly better player in general, and he's the incumbent. He's paid paid more money, and he's been a rock star in a committee role. So between the two, I definitely like Jaylen Warren, and I actually, in that cohort next to Rhamondre and Chuba Hubbard, like I think another one of these really, really strong selections. Mike McCarthy, again, their history with Rico Dowdle gave him the ball 275 times back in 2024. However, that 275 touches only made Rico finish as like the running back 26 in points per game, which was, you know, much better than when he was being drafted as like the running back 40ish. Um, so even getting that many touches here might not equal a big win. And then the contract didn't give me, you know, a ton of warm fuzzies that he's going to immediately step in and be a giant workhorse role. Basically a one-year, $6 million deal that's right between Kenny Gainwell and what Tyler Allgeier. So to me, that didn't elicit huge confidence.
Again, though, like certain games when they had really good blocking, it was extraordinary stuff, and it was all in a row. Like the Miami Dolphins game, he was running back one that week. Following game, Dallas Cowboys running back one. Later on, at the Green Bay Packers, running back two. I mean, that was 206, 183, and 130 rushing yards. And sure, he ran out of steam in those games with cramps and was seen on the sideline. You would, too, if you were getting the ball 30 times in those contests.
Yeah. So yeah, I want to monitor the Steelers beat writers a lot as we go along. And then I also think like Aaron Rodgers has some say in this, as we saw with what Kenny Gainwell did at the end of last season in terms of like how his role changed and how his usage changed and how he got all of his fantasy points, because that's basically the exact opposite of how Rico Dowdle accumulates his fantasy points.
Yeah, I think it's it that's makes this so fascinating. I I still think that Jaylen Warren is more of the Aaron Rodgers type of back. And I think same thing with Mike McCarthy. So Rico Dowdle is going to have a role. Like I think in like four-minute drill situations, they're running out the clock, it's for sure going to be Rico Dowdle. I think at the goal line, it might lean a little bit towards Rico Dowdle, but I think on like first and tens and passing situations, I think more often than not, it's going to be Jaylen Warren. That Rico Dowdle season with McCarthy, his competition was Deuce Vaughn and Zeke Elliott, like the ghost of Zeke Elliott. The year before that, Tony Pollard was coming off of that dislocated ankle. His efficiency was horrific, and Tony Pollard was absolutely smashing in touches, and Rico Dowdle barely played that season. So, I do like this offensive line. I think I would rather just pay the premium on Jaylen Warren. And I actually moved Rico Dowdle down in my rankings. I think in full, it's going to be hard for him to get there. And I also have seen Jaylen Warren, like if he actually gets the ball a lot, he's a pretty solid player where I think I would get pretty excited if he was like the clear-cut starter. And they don't have a running back three. So that's there's plenty of contingent value between both of these guys.
Yeah, there's a lot of picks in between 13 between Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, but just three running back spots because Dowdle goes as the running back 32, Jaylen Warren goes as the running back 29. And he could have qualified for this conversation, too, because if you go back to last season, he was the running back 19 in points per game and being drafted as a running back 29.
One more backfield. Let's talk Aaron Jones in the Minnesota Vikings. He finished as the running back 34 last year. He's drafted as a running back 39 this year. I understand that's a small gap, but I really wanted to shoehorn this conversation into the show because it truly might be the only time we talk about the Vikings backfield all summer long. I mean, again, we poke and prod and debate these 31 backfields across the league for months. 1A, 1B, success rate, stuff rate, goal line touches versus passing down, all that type of stuff. And then there's the Vikings backfield, and we simply do not care. So, Hayden, should we care about the Vikings backfield this year?
Not that much. From 2022 to 2024, that's when they had, you know, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, you pick your quarterback over that range. They were fourth in pass yards, 26th in rush yards. They were top five in neutral pass rate. It's just what Kevin O'Connell wants to do. It's what they should do. If you're looking at their wide receivers versus the talent that they have at running back, Aaron Jones is 31 years old. He's got an injury history. He isn't like a massive guy either. So I do think the age cliff is for sure here. Uh, last year was his lowest yards per carry season, and it was actually a career low by by 0.3 yards, which is a pretty big drop down. Um, so yeah, and even like when they are like really good as an offense, the fantasy points at running back really doesn't get there. So there's not that much of a ceiling. And I do think that Jordan Mason, who's obviously a lot younger, more powerfully built. I do think if one of these guys was going to all of a sudden explode for like 10 touchdowns, I think it would actually be Jordan Mason, not Aaron Jones. Unfortunately for Jordan Mason, he's just such a zero as a pass catcher that even if Aaron Jones goes down, he'll get all of the carries, but he's not going to have that much receiving juice on top of it. So, it's kind of one of these backfields where like there's some projected points here that could absolutely hit your flex lineup. Is there like a breakaway star out of.
These two guys? I'm really not convinced, especially if Kyler Murray gets in there and he's running around at the five-yard line himself.
Yeah, I guess if I was to make a pro case, it's that the Vikings totally rebound like they did in 2024, where they, you know, scored the ninth most points in the NFL. And in that season, Aaron Jones ranked as the running back 20 in points per game. So that would be, you know, a smallish win and would be like a running back two for you on any given week.
It's just like when I look at this, I mean, he and Jordan Mason, and I understand that like this often sucked last year, and a lot of it came down to the quarterback, right? But he and Jordan Mason combined for eight attempts inside the five-yard line last year. And if you zoom out to the ten-yard line, they combined for 15 carries. That 15 would have ranked 30th among all individual ball carriers in the NFL last year.
Yikes.
Uh, that's just like not enough touchdown opportunities. And as you said, Aaron Jones 31 now, five games missed due to hip, shoulder, toe, hamstring, knees, and toes. Uh, and then all of his per season, per-touch numbers were worse. And man, what we talk about all the time is once you start hitting that, the cliff is here and the cliff has arrived. And sometimes, uh, it's already here when the decline has already hit. And I'm kind of worried we're at that point here.
It is fascinating to me. Maybe telling that this team made zero, zero investment at the running back spot other than Dean Claybourne. And do I need to ask you what your thoughts are of Dean Claybourne like carving out a significant role in this offense?
We got 12 minutes on this channel if you need those. Uh, I don't like the chances. And just going back to that RB20 season in 2024, remember that Vikings team was 14 and three. They were top 10 in scoring. Aaron Jones' competition for touches in the backfield was Cam Acres and Ty Chandler. And he still, with all that, was the RB20. So I think Aaron Jones is like one of the easiest fades out there. Uh, and I think Jordan Mason like possibly can like goal-line himself into like eight touchdowns this season, but even then, it's like really not going to be enough to like totally make a difference. Uh, I would rather have Jordan Mason straight up. I haven't that in my rankings and full PPR gets a little bit closer. Um, but I just think that his efficiency is just going to be a little bit, uh, better for rush yards over expected plus 12% versus Aaron Jones, Aaron Jones's negative 4%. I thought he runs just a little bit harder on film as well. Um, so yeah, I just, I just don't see it in this backfield. I think I would just rather have Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray goes right in this range. Like I think Kyler Murray would be a better pick, uh, in baseball and I think there's a chance Kyler Murray could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year. I just don't see the upside with these backs.
And just to separate those 15 carries inside the ten, Mason had 10 of them and Aaron Jones had five. I got a message from Brad Beats 84 when saying that we're going to talk about this Vikings backfield. He said, "I'm a Jordan Mason bull this year simply because I believe a more efficient offense means more goal-to-go attempts, which should be handled by Mason. Eight-plus touchdown upside, which is basically exactly what you said." Uh, the interesting part is like, as bad as we've talked about the quarterback situation last year, the Vikings were still top 20 in red zone drives and red zone touchdown success rate. So, you know, it's not like they were bottom six, bottom 10. It was kind of league average-ish area.
Um, quickly on Deontae Clayborn because I do think with how bored everyone is of the Mason and Jones combo, um, he's very slight. He has explosiveness when he gets in the open field. My big issue with Deon Clayborn is the dude was horrific in passing situations.
So bad.
Awful hands even on swing and flat routes, and then horrific when it came to pass protection. And so typically you want those 185-ish pound running backs, if even he was that heavy, uh, to have some air back to them. And man, he has to really improve in that area in order to like carve out a role. And so, while I felt he had chances of pure explosive plays and pure straight line and even make-you-miss in tight space stuff, that like total liability and passing down roll, uh, might just minimize what he can do early and even later in the season.
Yeah, we need, we need Dwayne McBride to get back in here. Remember him?
Oh my gosh. I mean, I did again want to bring this up because this truly might be the only time we talk about the Vikings backfield. Aaron Jones is the last quote-unquote starting running back to be drafted out there in fantasy. And in fact, there are five or six running back twos selected ahead of the Vikings running back one at this point.
There's a reason. I like that. Good call by everybody.
Okay, last one. And again, in the breakouts video, like with Breece Hall, we talked about Trevon Henderson. We also need to bring in Rhamondre Stevenson in this conversation because he's on the opposite end of this. Uh, he's drafted as running back 28 despite finishing last year as running back 21 in points per game. Again, an extended conversation in that show last week. Anything you want to add and close out this episode with Rhamondre?
Yeah, I mean, he's the biggest boy in the backfield, so he's going to get the goal-line work and he was really good between the tackles and catching the ball last year. And this offense is going to be pretty sweet. Um, and he just did it this past season. What's so crazy, it wasn't like front-weighted production from week 16 through the Super Bowl. If you pull up the chart on Rhamondre Stevenson, like he was just lighting it up. Um, so I think there's a lot of pressure on Rhamondre Henderson, uh, versus Rhamondre Stevenson. I understand taking swings on both of these guys, but I do think that Rhamondre Stevenson is not some pushover back. And I do actually like his film this past season. Was better in pass protection. Had some big wheel route type of stuff. Was running hard between the tackles. Hopefully the offensive line's a little bit better. Lots of moving parts there, uh, for a reason. Yeah.
Just this entire kind of tier of running backs like they just look so good in, uh, your flex in half PPR. In full PPR, it's going to be a little bit different of a conversation because the wide receivers start to factor in a lot more there. But in half PPR, I mean, these just price tags, just they feel so good to me.
Like these seventh-round running backs, Chuba, Rhamondre, Jaylen Warren, and Tony Pollard. And then you drop down to the next row and it's Blake, Kyren, and Rico Dowdle. Like that is a very different feeling having one of those guys in your flex spot versus, you know, someone that's on your bench in week one. It's really that simple.
Yep.
I drafted a lot of these guys.
Uh, Rhamondre was actually one of our running back sleepers last year and he qualified. He was going, I believe, outside of the top 120 overall. Uh, now he's going as 74th overall player. I say that to suggest that next week is our sleepers episode for all positions. Uh, he doesn't qualify this year, but we'll find another one for you. That's for sure.
I don't know, man. Finding running back sleepers in this economy is it's tough out there. Uh, we'll come up with some good names.
Uh, but
One staring you right in the face and Bill Crosky Merritt at 122 overall.
Maybe. Maybe. Are we just going to skip the running back sleeper episode? Is that what you're saying here?
Uh, we'll come up with some names. We'll come up with some with some names. I'm less confident this year in the sleepers episode. It feels like, uh, once I get to round 13 in my drafts, I'm looking at these guys, I'm like, what the hell has happened?
I hear you. I hear you. Well, we'll figure it out. We'll do that next week. Thank you all for watching our episodes this week. Uh, thank you all for subscribing and hitting a thumbs up. A like goes a long way. I mean, it helps more and more people find this video. So, if you can reach, I don't know, 1,200 likes on this video, that would be freaking fantastic. All right, everyone. Catch you next week.