Transcription
Couple minutes late, only because, uh, it takes me a little bit to figure out how to work everything. And I'm still never really convinced that, uh, when I do things that it's actually streaming where it says it's going to be streaming. So let me just wait a few more seconds and then we'll get started. We should be on. Okay, looks like yes, we're on YouTube. And I'm still waiting for it to show up on Zap stream, and we are. It looks like so if you guys can, uh, live here. Okay, so if you guys want to use the live chat, I will try to pay most attention to Zap stream. Okay, post on Zap stream just to make sure that works and the live YouTube is working. Okay, I think we're working. Apologies for all the uh issues initially. I'm slowly getting a little bit better at this, but it still takes me a while to figure everything out. Let me next go to screen share and um and then I can show some of this action.
Okay, so this is the part where it's a little bit tricky because I can't actually see what people are doing. We're asking, hey, I see Thomas, the little first person in the YouTube chat. Good morning to you, Thomas. Thanks for coming today. Uh, I am sharing my screen here. Hopefully you guys can see that now. Um, this is Thinking Out Loud, February 24th. I'm going to stop with uh the episodes, uh, I was numbering by episode, but that's getting confusing as I've been working with my YouTube station or my YouTube channel. You guys have no idea what I'm doing. I need like, I actually should probably hire somebody, but I'm only doing this for fun. I'm not trying to grow a subscriber base. I'm not trying to grow my audience. I've mentioned this before. I'm not trying to get new clients, not trying to get new patients. Uh, I just am doing this for fun. I I like uh learning, uh, I I read a lot, I study a lot, and I like sharing what I've learned. And I'm not always right, too. I have some people who think I'm uh, you know, being arrogant or something uh in what I do. All this is not episode three. Let's change that. Hang on. Um, February February 24th, 2025, that's what we're going to call that. Okay, okay. Anyways, I'll hold off on that. Okay, so talking to myself, this is great. Love it. Okay, glad you all are here.
Um, I don't expect many people to show up initially, um, but hopefully people will get to watch this, uh, you know, later in the week or whatever. I do it live stream because I don't know what I'm doing and like I said, I don't really care. I'm just here to share thoughts uh as we as we progress in this show. I'm I'm hoping to get my friends, uh, many of whom are very interesting and uh talented, uh, for some reason, um, they hang out with me even though I am neither of those things. Um, but uh hopefully I'm hoping uh to get their opinions and their thoughts on this show as well, so you guys can learn from these other people like I get to do that. So anyways, here we go. Let's get back to the show itself. Uh, here's my slideshow. Um, like I said last time, uh, and this is the same, this is not just another podcast. I'm not trying to do interviews. I'm not trying to grow my podcast. Uh, it's just me and the occasional guest or two thinking out loud. Hopefully some plebs will find some value in it. Uh, it's not just going to be macroeconomics, finance, and Bitcoin, but these will definitely be major themes of this show. I can't emphasize enough that this is for infotainment purposes only. Right, that's my legal disclaimer that nothing I say is individual investment advice. Um, it's just my thoughts and what I do, and I'm not telling anybody that you should or should not do anything that I'm doing. Uh, I'm just here to teach people and to have some uh fun and hopefully um you guys will find some of my trips and ticks and Tech uh techniques uh useful that I do. I'm a fund manager as some of you probably know, and it's uh, you know, I have good years and bad years, but it's been it's been good recently. So let's get right into it here. Reasons to be optimistic. I'm I'm a natural Optimist. I like to call myself kind of an optimistic realist, um, in that uh I just um, you know, you can focus on the negatives, there's lots to be upset and unhappy about, but there's also lots to be uh I think uh encouraged about as well. Um, and so hey MAV 21, let's go brother. Thank wow dude, biggest zap ever. Thank you 5,000 SATs uh for this show. Thank you, M. I appreciate you. I appreciate the work that you do in your daily good mornings on uh on Noster. You've actually encouraged me above probably anybody else just to get out there and say good morning every morning. So good morning.
Reasons to be optimistic. Let's get into it. Um, the suspected mild disinflation in the month of February, or I should say I suspect that there will be mild disinflation in in the month of February. We don't get the actual CPI report until March 12th of 2025, but uh the reason why we've had a draw down in some kind of scary activity for some people, uh negative trading activity, price action in stocks and in Bitcoin is because we had the combination that's kind of the dreaded combo if you have disinflation or actual deflation and you have let's go to the next Point GDP growth deceleration. And if they happen at the same time that can lead to negative uh price action for risk assets and especially for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is very sensitive to macro factors. People think it's crazy to talk about macro especially in the Bitcoin World. Um, I just couldn't disagree more. I think Bitcoin is the world's freest market and it responds quite significantly and quite quickly to major macroeconomic factors. Things that matter, uh M2, uh whether M2 is accelerating or decelerating, uh whether it's peaking or bottoming, those kind of things, uh GDP growth, uh whether the economy of a country is accelerating, coming off bottoms, you know, if it's healthy and strong and accelerating or if it looks like it's toppy or rolling over and decelerating, those things really matter for risk assets. Those things are what lead, you know, people talk about recessions and things like that, but for most investors and even holder holders of Bitcoin, uh that greatly affects price action. So I like to look at those things daily, and that's what I'm hoping to do again more with this show is just let people know, show people how I think about things and how I go through it as a fund manager because there are times to be very bullish and to be positioned in your portfolio as extremely bullish, uh, and there are times to be conservative. There just are, right. And so and if you're okay with having draw Downs of 70 or 80% uh in your portfolio, that's great, and I think that's awesome. And individually, I I like to tell people personally what I do, especially for Bitcoin, is I just dollar cost average regardless of price. I don't care what the price is, and I think for anybody if you've met people who have been doing this for five years or more, there's not a single person who regrets doing that. It you you will do very well for yourself if all you do is dollar cost average on a daily or weekly or monthly basis into Bitcoin and over time the price will take care of itself and you don't have to think about any of this stuff. You can go on and build stuff, but you're like if you're like me and you're a fund manager, I have clients that they don't tolerate 60, 70, 80% draw down, so I need to sort of proactively trade, uh, and and I like to show people what I'm doing here. I'm not a day trader. I I I'm not, you know, I'm not scalp trading. I'm not trying to get quick profits. I want to be in assets and secular trends for as long as possible, uh, and obviously Bitcoin is the most powerful Financial secular Trend uh in I think in the history of humanity, so being short Bitcoin is is just utterly ridiculous. But that said, there are seasons where if you've lived through enough Cycles, you know that there are seasons where it can be pretty painful to sit and hold Bitcoin, so we'll talk about that as we go on.
Point number four, reasons to be optimistic. Given my positive outlook for economic growth, plus or minus mild inflation, we could have mild uh disinflation or mild inflation acceleration in the coming months. Regardless, I see that this recent February dip, and we're getting a great dip today, that's part of why I wanted to talk today, is because the price, and we'll get into that a little bit, uh, and I'll show you my charts, but the price of Bitcoin is getting a bit hammered right now. It's actually totally within in its normal range, and it's still pretty low volatility. We're seeing some volatility breakout in MicroStrategy, uh, which is what I've been waiting for, and I'll show you those charts as well. I think most people assumed when I when I said breakout that it was going to break out to the upside. I just have been waiting for a big breakout and a big increase in volatility, and we're getting that. So it's breaking out of a a pennant form in tech technical analysis terms. We'll talk about that a little bit. Uh, let me just make sure we're doing good. Hey, just want to say hey to the YouTube people. Do I believe in monthly cycles for Bitcoin, Martin? Um, I don't really know what you mean by that. I don't really pay too much attention to monthly Bitcoin Cycles, although I do think it responds to monthly um GDP and inflation and other macro um indicators like uh Global M2 as well. Little kiwi, I don't think I'm a legend, brother. I assume you're a brother, maybe not sister, brother, sister, uh, but thank you for that kind word from Holland. By the way, you guys, I've been really encouraged by most of the remarks and the comments uh on these videos. I'm obviously just, you know, flailing from a technical technology perspective, but I do have a lot of fun with this, so I'm glad that at least some of you are finding some value. Um, Thomas the little yeah, let's we'll look at FLD. Remind me to get to to talk about Fold a little bit later. Texas Plant Company, you're here, welcome. And Mike, do I own MicroStrategy, which is sorry, Strategy, why or why not? Uh, yes, I do, and I'll talk more about that. Good morning to n Pub who just popped up over on Zap stream. Love it, seeing people on Zap stream as well. Okay, let me keep moving here. I get sidetracked easily, as you guys probably understand uh or have probably figured out by now.
Rest of the world, other reasons to be optimistic. I think that the economic and inflation growth data in uh Europe and in parts of Asia and in parts of Central and South America actually look even better than it does in the US for the foreseeable future. So that's also encouraging. You know, the US kind of warded off a recession because of this massive fiscal stimulus that's been going on for the last couple of years that kept us out of a recession, which I think we should have gone into one late 2022, early 2023. We had those banking failures and a bunch of shady activity that was going on because of Operation Choke Point 2.0. Um, but I think the government propped up the economy enough and put pushed enough money into the economy uh to keep it from going into an actual recession, uh, and and the FED also did some, you know, the bank term funding program, some like tricky things in order to help to help us not to go into a credit crisis here in the US. The other nations like China and like Europe and the UK were not so fortunate. Uh, they've been really dragging for, as you guys probably know, many months, many quarters, several years, and they are actually coming out of it now, and so that's good. It's when you can go from bad to less bad that's actually a great time to own equities. So I don't have a lot of international exposure and my fund, um, I kind of have some on and off exposure, um, but I would not um begrudge anyone for for increasing their International exposure uh right now. I think it's a good time to do so. Um, again, not individual advice, but but those equities in a lot of countries, just you can just look at Europe in general, uh, and it looks really good. China, I think, even though I don't like supporting communist regimes, um, the Chinese stock market actually doesn't look too bad right now. Uh, we we can talk more about that later. Uh, so just what I said, International equities may outperform US equities in coming quarters, just my guess. Um, and I will go to take-home points. Right, aray stocks generally don't crash materially when economic growth and inflation are accelerating. This is the same thing I said in my last um presentation, and I still I'm saying it again because it's a very important point. There are a lot of recession bears out there calling for the largest crash in the markets since 1929 and since 1999, and I've been saying for two years now, you can go back and look at pretty much any interview I've done, I say they're just wrong, and they continue to be wrong, and we are not heading into a major recession. Um, and so people freak out like when we have months like February, we have like kind of like little mini dips, right? We have mini kind of recessionary uh monthly um uh data points in GDP growth in inflation. I just look at those as buying opportunities in a bull market. So um don't get scared out, you know, and let let me get to my next point because I'm sure I get to it here. In a bull market, all dips are for buying, and I believe we're in a bull market right now. So if we have dips like the February dip and risk assets, especially Bitcoin and Bitcoin proxies, these are nice buying opportunities. They're they're they are chances to add exposure if you're short exposure, if you've been sitting on the sidelines in cash, um, I mean, you do you, right, but I I'm not sitting in cash right now. Let's just say uh for my fund we are heavily invested right now. If we hit um trailing stop losses, we'll we'll go out, um, and we have some things that are like kind of on the border right now where we have like mild positions or we've downsized our positions, um, but I actually expect those to reverse and to to shoot higher again uh over the coming weeks and and months. I think we're very close personally to a bottom if we're not there already, um a local bottom.
Last take-on points. Just want to say this again: infotainment purposes only, not individual investment advice. It's just me thinking out loud. Okay, I've I've hammered that enough. Quote of the day. This is from John Piper, who's a actually a uh kind of a famous preacher. He was actually a pastor at a church I went to with my wife um back in the late '90s and early 2000s. His quote of the day for me is: better to lose your life than to waste it. That sounds pretty extreme to some people, but as a Christian, uh, I'm I'm a a big fan of this line of thinking. Don't waste your life, man. Don't live for retirement, like live to do something better and greater, uh, and uh I could go into that, but we won't get too theological today, but man, just don't waste your life. Don't sit on the couch, don't watch Netflix until you die, don't play golf till you die, like get out there and affect people, affect positive change, uh, and all that stuff. Okay, uh let's get into it now. Quote. So lot of great questions and comments um from the prior show. Uh, I actually have a whole slew of them this time. I love this, you guys. If you guys have things you want me to talk about, um by all means uh ask the questions. Uh, it really helps me when I can when I can, you know, make little screenshots of them and talk about them uh for the next show. So if you have some when you're watching this, say you're watching this show after the the live stream, put your put your uh questions or comments down in the comment section, and I will go through, I go through all of them, just so you know, I read all of them, even the mean ones, uh, and uh and and and you know, try to take it to heart. Um, but if there's good questions, I will address it on the the next episode, at least that's my goal. So uh let's go back. Sorry, Jim Jim Jones, you asked a bunch of questions last time, and you have a lot of good ones here, so I'm just going to run through these real fast.
Maybe a bit left-field, but can you comment on Japanese yen versus the Australian dollar, expectations for this year? You know, let me go to this. Hopefully you guys can see this now. I can't actually see it, so so I'm gonna hope you guys can see this. Um, I'll put this right over here for a second. I actually brought this up, so so Jim, I don't trade currencies. I I will be honest with you, the only thing I care about is the dollar. I care about is the dollar strengthening, is it too strong, is it weakening, is it too weak? Those are how I think about things. Um, so but we'll we'll get to your question, the Australian dollar versus Japan. So the Australian dollar looks like it peaked here around July of 2024, and then it's been waffling around its 50-week, this is a five-year chart, right? So 50-week moving average, these are weekly bars, uh, and now it's weakening. So how would I look at this if I were interested in this, uh, if I were trading this? I would short the Australian dollar here because it's it's starting, it looks like to me, starting a momentous downturn. So we'll probably see more strength than the Japanese Yen, uh less strength in the dollar, and until that changes, that's how I would trade it. Um, but I'm not, to be very clear, I'm not trading this, so um, you know, you do you, but I'm not doing that. Um, but I do care about the dollar, and I do think that and I think we get into this in later um questions, so I'm not going to ruin it, but I do have thoughts about the dollar. What do I think about Commodities, copper and in general versus stocks this year? I think Commodities are going to continue to do well. Um, uh they they have been doing well. Here's a basket of Commodities, five-year chart again. You'll notice here, let's look at this. So it was in a big downtrend for a long time. It bottomed in March of 2020, and then it shot higher, and it's literally been in a very strong, strong to choppy to strong, strong again uptrend, and I would continue to play that. So I'm bullish in general on Commodities. I'll tell you guys the way it works in general is that when you have a recovering business cycle, the first thing you see is commodity price inflation. Okay. Um, I hope you guys can see this, by the way. I should uh hold on. I might be I might be showing you stuff that you can't even that I think you see and you're not cannot see the chart. Okay, sorry. Um, I you guys, I need like I need help here. I'm just like so terrible at this stuff. Um, screen share script, no, no, where, why can't I see this? I want to go to stop sharing, share something else. There we go, share. Okay, sorry guys. Share. Hey, now you guys, you should be able to see this. Sorry guys, this is way harder than it looks. I got to I got to manage like multiple screens at the same time, so I have a lot of compassion for people who I've kind of laughing at like Jack MERS does a show too, and I see him kind of flounder a bit. I'm like, it takes a while to figure out how to do this, and I think that Matt Odell and Marty Bent have a good system where they have two guys kind of working it, um, and so anyways, I I do not, it's just me here. Okay, so here's the chart, so let me go back because that means you didn't see this other chart. Uh, here's the Australian Dollar to the Japanese Yen, peaked here in July, trending lower, below its 50-week moving average. This is what I use because I consider myself to be a long-term Trader. I have a long-term trading system uh for my clients. So what I want to do in my fund is to be in a position for as long as possible, uh to not be trading daily or even weekly moves, but but be in in positions for quarters and ideally for years if possible, uh and only get out if it looks like we're clearly going into a kind of a bear Market, um, we and then we talked about Commodities. So here's the chart for Commodities. Okay, so what I was saying uh before I realized that you couldn't see the chart is: look at this. So this May 2011, Commodities peaked, huge downtrend all the way down to March of 2020. Let me widen it out a little bit so we can see bottom, this is right the COVID crash here, and then it rebounded higher. Okay, and so and then and we had this strong uptrend, and then here in the, you know, late 2022, early 2023, choppy sideways to slightly down, uh, and then the uptrend resumed again. I think in that Commodities are going to do well. I tell people that um the way that economic Cycles work is the first thing you see in a recovering economic cycle or a business cycle are uh commodity and prices increasing. You should see a surge in commodity prices, uh, and so that's that's what we've been seeing here. Let me open widen this out a little more here. Okay. Um, that's what we've been seeing, and what that eventually turns into is something called Goods inflation. So the Producers, the producers who are making things that turn Commodities into products, um, those prices increase. So the producer prices, the goods and prices start to increase over time. That's kind of mid-phase of a business cycle, and then late phases of a business cycle is you see Services inflation. So people start charging more, you have to pay workers more to keep up with the rising costs of these Goods, the Commodities that have increased, the goods prices that have increased, and now you just have to pay people more, and that can lead to kind of higher inflation, and that's usually what you see at the end of an economic cycle. So the so the economy is starting to weaken, but you still see that uh continued increase in the prices of services, and that's usually late-stage stuff. Um, we're not we're not even close to that right now. We're right now in the early stages of a business cycle recovery where we're seeing commodity price inflation. So I'm generally coming full circle, Jim. I am bullish on Commodities in general right now. So let me go back to stop sharing, share something else. Yes, window Thinking Out Loud, share this. Okay, back here, back to Jim's questions.
Living on a uh wait, I'm sorry. What will be the key indicators that equities and Bitcoin Bull Run will be drawing to an end? We'll talk about that, but we're nowhere near that now. Um, I'm if I'm still doing this show uh at that time, uh I may or may not, you know, I don't have any real purpose in this other than I think it's kind of fun to share what I've learned lately. Um, if we get to that point, um I'll hopefully let you know, but I'll be looking for the business cycle to be rolling over. I'll be looking for Global M2 monetary Supply to be peaking and rolling over. I will tell you that guys, by the way, that Bitcoin senses uh it senses this stuff, it senses these changes more quickly than everything else, um and so Bitcoin usually front-runs Global M2 monetary Supply rolling over and front-runs a business cycle rolling over. So just be careful. Um, I have my methods that I actually don't like sharing because it's too good um to share publicly, and it's what I do for my hedge fund clients, um but I will give hints with what I'm thinking uh when the time comes. As of now, I'm very bullish. I'm I'm using all dips for buying. I'm adding to positions right now, especially in Bitcoin-related things. Living on a Bitcoin standard, are you concerned about the centralization of Bitcoin Miners and other issues that could potentially materially affect Bitcoin? No. Have you read familiar with them, and I think I would like to, I think I agree with everything they say for the most part, so maybe someday I'll read it, but I have not read it. Thoughts on I think that's BitDeer, maybe let me go to sorry guys, coming again here, and you can't see this, so I have to stop sharing that and go to screen share again. Sorry guys, someday I'm going to be so smooth at this, you're just not even going to believe it. Okay, BitDeer, right? Yeah, BitDeer. Okay, so very volatile, so I have to turn off the Bollinger Bands. Let's widen it out. Okay, so you guys know my thoughts from before, basically any mining, Bitcoin mining-related company, I don't think makes for a good long-term investment. Um, it's it's a dog-eat-dog world. Um, you know, before Bitcoin, I used to be a kind of a gold bug. I was a sound money guy before I knew about Bitcoin, and gold was the best money before Bitcoin. I was also into gold miners, silver and silver miners. Any miner of any commodity, that's a tough, tough business, and that includes Bitcoin. I'm telling you, it's probably worse with Bitcoin because the competition is so intense, uh, and it's changing so quickly. Um, so that's my opinion. So what don't I like about it? I don't like how choppy and volatile it is, right? With the with the long-term trading system I use, I would be out here, here, out here, in here, out here, in here. So I hate stuff like that. I look for things that are in very solid secular Trends, um and this is not, but could it be starting one? Sure. So like if I were interested in BitDeer, what I here's what I like about it right now. It peaked here back in January of 2025 at about a high of 26.99 a share. It has since pulled way back here to where it is at 13, so it's been cut in half, since over half, over 50% since its high. I like it that it's below that on its RSI. It's reset here below 50, so that's generally a thing I use as kind of a good rule of thumb. So the the all of the positive momentum has been, you know, sucked out of it, uh, and if I were interested in owning this and I am not, but if I were, uh I would probably take a small position right about here, uh and and like a starter position, and then I would watch it. I usually only make trades once a week, usually every Friday uh is how I do it. I just like to watch the week, and then at the end of the week, I make my kind of weekly trade decisions if any, and hopefully I don't have any, but sometimes I do have some. Um, I would buy some if this were a Friday and it we sitting right here. I would consider starting like a half-size position, and then I'd watch it for another week, uh and then I would start, and if it dipped below my 50-week moving average, I would sell it, um and it would be that easy because I have that's the system that I use. Let me get back to questions. So questions [Music] and yes, I'm not going to talk too much more about that.
Assuming equal tax treatment, would I buy MetaPlanet over Strategy? So we talked about this last week or two weeks ago. MetaPlanet, that's the company where Dylan LeClair, who is I consider him to be a friend and a super intelligent guy, an up-and-comer I would say in the fund management space versus, you know, Square Strategy. They both have ripped a lot, so I've owned both of these. I actually sold my MetaPlanet only because I don't like uh paying foreign, my my investors don't like paying foreign taxes, so I've stayed out of it, which has been a bummer because it's been such an incredible performing stock over Strategy. Um, I think both are going to do well. Um, they both have run up a long ways, and so the way Bitcoin Cycles tend to work is that there tends to be kind of the flavors of the day, um and um the flavors of each bull market tend to rip the furthest, the fastest, and everybody gets all psyched about them. The last four-year cycle, the last bull market, it was uh generally uh Bitcoin miners, uh and and they like nobody could get enough of them. I don't think they're going to rip that hard uh this bull market, and they've already been kind of languishing, as you guys may have noticed. Um, I think it's Strategy basically and MetaPlanet are the two flavors of the day for this cycle. They will both do well. I think when Bitcoin when the Bitcoin bull market resumes in earnest, um I don't know that they'll outperform Bitcoin from here, though, that that's my only thing. I think I think they've gone up a lot, and uh how much more they have, I don't know. So personally, I would be putting new money into just Bitcoin and not necessarily into these two, although I think these two will do well, and I think they'll definitely do better than just straight-up stocks like the US Stock Market. Okay, let's move on. We got questions from other people, so I want to kind of hit hit lots of people. Canadian Satosi asked: Hey Jeff, thanks for the content. You're welcome. Any thoughts on uranium, uh, and then he has a couple stocks to look at. So I actually included these, so let me again, let me flounder for a bit and get back [Music] to share something else. Let's share this again. Share. Okay, you're asking about two. So first of all, I'm generally bullish on nuclear, and it's been a long time, you know, the Trump Administration is decreasing regulations across the board. Almost no sector is as heavily regulated as the nuclear power sector in the United States, um and so that's generally a good thing, right? So I would be um I'm generally bullish on nuclear. I'm bullish on nuclear as a base load energy source for the grid. Very bullish on that. I think Americans need to fully embrace nuclear energy, and I'm very disappointed with how long this whole process is taking and how far some people have been restricting and regulating it. I think it's unnecessary. They put unnecessary fear into the general populace, and I can't stand that, and I really wish they wouldn't do that, um because nuclear power is pretty awesome as far as I'm concerned. Um, you're asking about these two stocks. I know nothing about these stocks. I will tell you, so here's what I did. This LightBridge Corporation, um here's how I would look at it. First of all, look at it over time. So this is the entire history, dude. This started on a I assume this is um it didn't actually start at this price, but it says, you know, an opening price of about $2,000 a share, um it's probably excuse me, $4,000 a share. It hit a high of that way back in 2000, uh and now it's at $10 a share. Um, so that's a split-adjusted price. I would assume probably multiple splits just to sort of stay, you know, above $10. These penny stocks, they if they if they fall too low, they get unlisted, so they have to do these re-splits. That's not a good sign. So long-term, this has been an absolutely horrible, terrible investment, right? Okay, but that may change, right? Companies change, leadership changes, um business offerings change. Um, here's how I would look at it. First of all, it's been really choppy over the last five years. I don't like that, as we mentioned, but it's been generally heading lower until September 2024. That's probably when the market started to sniff out that Trump was going to, you know, actually win the election, and now look at it, it's just totally spiked and been shooting higher. So if I were interested in this stock and I am not, if I were interested in it, I would probably right here at this point take a little nibble. I would get a starter position right here, so you know, whatever my position size was, I'd maybe put like a quarter of that into the stock at this price here because it could shoot higher, but it could also shoot much lower. I like to buy stocks, if you're watching the chart with me, when the RSI, the weekly RSI, falls below 50 in general, uh I I like to see weakness and buy on weakness, um so I like it to look weak from a technical perspective in the near term, but still holding on to a secular uptrend, uh and and for me, I I like for most things, I like to use a 50-week moving average for that. So I would nibble at it, um uh but I wouldn't take a full position here, but it's definitely worth watching. And then you also asked about UEC, which is on Encore Encore Energy. This just looks worse, right? So can I put the Bollinger Bands? Yeah, so this looks worse, right? It's just kind of been chopping sideways since we're at prices now that it was back in February 2021 at $255 a share. It's below its uh 50-week moving average and heading lower. I just don't buy things that are in a downtrend like this. Uh, in fact, I would consider shorting it if it spiked up closer to its 50-week moving average. I would consider putting a short on, um but I hope it does well. Like I said, I'm optimistic in general about um nuclear stocks and nuclear energy, and I think America should embrace nuclear energy. Um, let me share something else. Window Thinking Out Loud, slideshow. Okay, we're back to here. Let's move on. Good question, Matthew Wallen 9224, ask: Yo Jeff, why are you posting the same video twice? I just so you guys know, like I mentioned earlier, I'm terrible technically. I'm very technically challenged. I tried to I re-posted episode two, which I recorded back on February 14th, um to YouTube to try to
Storage. Oh, sorry. Okay, let me go back to the presentation. Sorry guys, I'm just, like, just the worst with this stuff. Okay, presentation. Thinking Out Loud share. So good question. Um, DRP 89 asked, thank you Dr. Jeff, looking forward. Thank you, DRP 89. Question: What are your thoughts on borrowing against Bitcoin for life expenses instead of selling at cycle tops? Wealthy people follow the mantra of "buy, borrow, die," right? I mean, most people know that by now. Um, they, so like Warren Buffett, he does like sell his Berkshire Hathaway stock every once in a while to pay his utility bills or to pay his mortgage or whatever. What he does is he has, you know, billions and billions of dollars worth of Berkshire stock in his brokerage accounts, and the brokerage firms and the banks look at his net worth and they're like, "Dude, we would love to give you any amount of money for a low interest rate, so you don't need to," and we'll use your Berkshire stock as collateral. Yes or no? And and all of these rich people do do this. Elon Musk does it. Larry Ellison does it. Uh, every every wealthy person basically does this, right? So they have their stacks, whether it's Bitcoin or a Bitcoin proxy or, um, you know, it's S with Sailor with MicroStrategy and his Bitcoin. He's not selling little bits of stock necessarily to pay for living expenses; he's borrowing against it, right? So what they do is, uh, if you can get very low interest rates against your investments, against your Bitcoin, um, yes, then it can make really good sense to do that. Um, I will say that most people should not be doing that. Why? Most people don't have enough Bitcoin or any asset to borrow against to live off of it, right? Um, most people what they do is they degen, right? They they see the ability to borrow; they borrow against a volatile asset like Bitcoin, and then they just go out and buy more Bitcoin or MicroStrategy or triple leverage MicroStrategy or God forbid cryptocurrencies, um, and and all say it's because they want to make more Bitcoin. Those people are the people I'm telling you who get absolutely wrecked. They get margin called when the bear market hits, when volatility starts to spike. They get margin called, meaning that the wherever they are borrowing money from, whatever exchange or service they're using, it literally without asking them just sucks their Bitcoin away from them and says, "Thank you. Sorry, you hit your limit. Uh, you know, we used maybe a a loan-to-value of 50%, and the price of Bitcoin dropped 51%, so we just liquidated all or some of your Bitcoin, and now you got wrecked," and they have your Bitcoin and you're poor. Um, so if you are able to do this, and you will know you're able to do this because literally banks and um brokerage firms will be asking you if you want to borrow money from them, they literally will come and find you and say like, "Hey, we've noticed you're freaky rich," and by this isn't me, by the way, but this happens with wealthy people. I'm a fund manager, right? They will come and say, "We want to loan you money at this super super low interest rate. Would you like to take advantage of this offer?" And you know, 99 times out of 100 you say yes. If they're not coming after you asking if you want to borrow money, um, you're probably not in this category, and it's probably not a great idea. Um, so for the rest of us plebs, right, us common people that are just, you know, trying to make it, for people like me who have worked three careers for 11 years, although now I'm just down to one career, and all of you guys, I know you people watching are hardworking, and you know you're you're working hard stacking sats. You're importantly spending less than you make; that's a huge kicker on this. You have to spend less than you make, otherwise it you won't ever grow wealthy. Um, if you're like us, I think living on a Bitcoin standard is sort of the way to go. You just get your paychecks, you put them into Bitcoin, you put your expenses, uh, you know, you pay them. You can use a service like Strike, shout out to Jack Mallers and other people, Fold, for doing similar things, um, and just start living on a Bitcoin standard, and eventually that Bitcoin will grow at a rate that it's growing much faster than your expenses are increasing, hopefully, and it grows much faster than say stocks or bonds or currencies or uh real estate are growing, uh, and you'll start doing well over time. Hopefully that makes sense. Um, taxes blow. I think that more Bitcoiners should be pushing very hard on the current administration, current Congress people, um, to um not tax transactions, buys, if you're buying or selling goods and services in Bitcoin, we should not be taxed on it, right? It's just money. So I think it's actually kind of criminal that we're being taxed on this kind of stuff, and that's really hampering the use of Bitcoin as currency, as a as a money, as a um medium of exchange, uh, and and once they get rid of those taxes, and I think they should, and I think eventually they will, um, then it's going to be much more reasonable to use it for day-to-day expenses. Hopefully that makes sense. Um, I just want to look at some other questions here real quick. Has it missed? We have only a year left. I see my path of fire. So I just wanted to look at you on ZapStream. Thank you. Um, and Wood Butcher, way to go, all in on Bitcoin. I love it. Um, we only have a year left of the Bitcoin bull market, maybe, uh, and maybe not, right? I think we probably have, I think still kind of fourth quarter of 2025 is when we peak, but it might not. I I I have people like, I have this dude that keeps trying to bet me for my price prediction. Am I going to stand by my price prediction and bet a money that it won't happen? And I'm like, I'm not like, I don't care if it hits that price or not, like that's not my point. My point is directionally am I correct, and is my time periods are they correct, uh, because that's how I invest, and I invest based on momentum. I don't care if it goes way above or way below my price targets. Um, they're just sort of to give me an idea of when I think it's it's going somewhere and how high I think it could go. It could go much higher than my price target; it could go much lower than my price target. I don't care. So so that's how I feel about it. Um, has it missed, or you know, hey, my path of fire. I think we come to that question a little bit later with some other folks, so let let me come back to that. Okay, about M2 money supply. I'll move on. Cam asks or says, "Jeff, love these." Thank you, Cam. How do you approach entering and exiting trades? How long are you staying in positions typically? I've been touching on this a little bit, and hopefully it's starting to make sense to you. I consider myself, at least what I use for my hedge fund, it's a long-term trading strategy, so I'm not just all in, all long all the time. Um, that's a great, that's probably the best strategy because it's very low uh from a tax perspective. You pay very little taxes if you're not constantly buying and selling. Um, you don't have to think at all about timing. You're basically in those kind of strategies just dollar-cost averaging. I actually think that's the wisest for 99% of people, especially in terms of Bitcoin, just dollar-cost average. Don't worry about the price. I tell people, "Head down, work hard, stack sats as hard as you can for 10 years at least, regardless of the price, and you will do well," and I really believe that because what we think of as high short-term, you know, bull bull market prices uh in the near-term, they're going to look like teeny little blips on the chart five, 10 years from now. So just buy at any price right now until you have enough to start living off of. That's how I view Bitcoin. For my hedge fund, how long am I staying in positions typically? You know, as I've shown from my charts, and you can probably see, I use the, you know, like I like to use the 50-day moving average, um, but I I do change that when I feel like we're getting you near market bottoms or market tops, um, but I generally stay in as long as possible, and if it starts to fall, you know, below say the 50-day moving average, then I start to trim my positions. I'll even exit positions if they do, um, but it has to sort of also uh be in cahoots with my um my macro takes too. Um, so hopefully that makes sense. Next, we'll keep moving. Sorry, this is already dragging on a little bit, but I'm getting closer to the end here. Bit Horizon asks, "Curious about liquidity, timing, and the Dixie, so the US dollar trend, PMI trend, all things Bitcoin." I love it. So basically you want me to talk about everything I think about all the time and the whole reason why I do this channel. Liquidity. Let me talk about liquidity a little bit. You know, I think most people are watching the Fed and the US government to see what we're doing for liquidity. I think the most important things they can be watching from the US perspective is one, what is the US dollar doing, and two, what are US interest rates doing? I think regarding Global M2 monetary supply, which is hugely important, I don't think that the US is going to be the primary driver of that this cycle. I think it's primarily going to be China, as well as some from Europe uh and Japan as well, but I would be watching China as far as Global Uh M2 monetary supply is concerned. Why does that matter? Because Bitcoin is closely correlated with the directional movements and flows of global M2 monetary supply. It's a global asset, so it makes sense that it would move in response to these global metrics, right? So hopefully that makes sense to you. Um, let me just go to the Dixie here. Um, change screens again, man. I'm getting good at these screen-changing things. This is great. Okay, so just kidding. I'm I'm terrible, but a little better. The Dixie, as I've mentioned on my prior episodes, um, I think the Dixie actually did peak here uh at about 110, 110.7, it looks like back in the kind of mid-January, uh, and I actually think this is for real, and I think it will probably hold. So similar to what happened back in 2017 during Trump's first term, see how it peaked here in January, early January 2017, and then went lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, all the way down until February of 2018. I think we're going to have a very similar uh progression here. Why? Because Trump and Scott Bessent publicly are saying they don't want a strong dollar. They'll say they want a strong dollar, but they want it to weaken, which is funny. They want the dollar to still be the the, you know, the US Reserve currency, um, excuse me, the global Reserve currency, but they want it to be weaker in general, and they also want rates to come down, meaning like 10, 20, 30-year long-term treasury rates to come down, and I think they are being successful, and I think they will be successful. Here's the 10-year here. It has been right in this uptrend and then kind of chopping sideways. Um, I have been saying that I think 2025 we're actually at risk in the US for too hot of an economy, higher inflation than expected, and higher longer-term rates than expected. I will say that I question myself on that though, um, because I think even though we will have a strong economy and that inflation will be sort of pnic, it won't get as low as lots of people want it to get. Um, rates and dollar strength, let's go back to the dollar, are all relative to other currencies and other rates. So even if we have a growing economy, if things are growing less robustly than they are in say China and in the EU and the UK and Japan and wherever, then we actually might see lower rates and continued lower dollar strength. That in general is good for risk assets. So if I had to say what I would like for risk assets to do well and especially for Bitcoin to do well in 202 2025, it would be lower, uh lower, you know, weaken dollar, uh and lower longer-term rates, but more but the weaken dollar is the is a very important factor. Now what I said to other people um back in the fourth quarter of 2024 was, you remember when everybody was ring about global M2 monetary supply decreasing throughout 2024, and I told people, I said, "Hey," and for people who can't see this, I'm showing a chart of global M2, kind of a a poor man's version of it on TradingView, how it basically peaked in late September 2024 and then rolled over and headed down, and what I told people back in this time frame is I said, "You watch. Once the US dollar breaks, when it once it peaks and breaks lower again, we'll see a quick rise again in global M2," and look what has happened. So the dollar peaked here in mid-January at above 110, and it's been rolling over, and commensurately, if you look down here at Global M2, that's when it bottomed, a local bottom, and now it's moving much higher. Global M2 is very strongly dependent on the direction of the dollar. So if we have huge dollar strength, you should expect slowing and decelerating Global M2, and when the dollar weakens, you should see increasing Global M2. That's generally good for risk assets. Note that with Bitcoin, by the way, there is a usually a delay between the movement, the directional flow of global M2. The delay is about somewhere between seven and 15 weeks. This is the work that Michael Howell did over at Crossborder Capital, which he does some awesome work on global M2, um, and it usually averages about 10 to 12 weeks. So there's usually a delay somewhere between seven and 15 weeks, or more specifically 10 to 12 weeks for after you see the delayed effects. So the bottom in mid-January of the dollar, of the excuse me, of global M2, um, if you look out 7 to 15 weeks from there, you should start seeing the price of Bitcoin start to finally follow that. So why is Bitcoin still down even though Global M2 is trending higher? The delay, the delay in uh the effects of global M2, it takes a while to work through the system. Hopefully that makes sense. Um, that's why I view these dips as fantastic buying opportunities. Getting close, everybody. Hang on, we're almost done. Uh, good morning. This is from j720. Good morning. What are your thoughts on strategy, price action lately? Some are calling for 230s. I I assume that's the US dollar price. Do you see that as a possibility? Good question, j720. Let me go to strategy share MSTR. Okay, it's very volatile, so I have to remove the Bollinger Bands to get a good look at it. What do you see here? So I I here, this is just awesome. I did I wish I could post my um my Nostr post on here, um, so I could show you, but what I said was we were sitting right around here, maybe somewhere in here, let's say it was probably around Wednesday the 19th. I'm guessing I uh did a post on Nostr. I took a picture of this. I mag up on it on the daily chart, and we were kind of hanging out somewhere around here, and I said, "Check out this pennant. Um, you know, the TA suggests to me," let me see if I can put, yeah, here's P, the we are volatility is coming in; it's getting really really low. Um, we are going to see a uh what did I say, a breakout from this pattern very shortly uh based on the stuff that I look at here. Let me shut that down. We're going to see a breakout imminently, I believe I said, and what has happened? I think most people when they see that, because most people are degen who are just like max long with leverage, they think I I they think what I'm saying is we're going to see it rip higher, but what I was saying is we're going to see volatility finally explode back, and we're going to see a breakout. So what did we see? We saw a breakout. We see the Bollinger Band B widening, so volatility is starting to increase again. The price is breaking lower. Um, what I think is going to happen though, based on my macro assessment, is that this is going to be what's called an Ender round of this pennant, so basically a frak, a not a fake, a real breakout lower, um, but it's going to end to the upside, and my gosh, you guys, I'm so bad at this. Let's see here. Arrow. Here we go. What I think is going to happen is somewhere around here. I think the question is, could it go down to 230? So let me go back on the five-year chart because I think that's more helpful. We're back on the five-year. I'm putting my 50-day moving average on right now. The 50-day moving average is, if you'll see over here, I can't point to it, but it's 221. Here we go. So the yellow, the orange yellow line uh on the bottom, that's the 50-day moving average says that uh you know, it's it's at $221. I think that's probably where people are getting that target of somewhere around, you know, 223 I think was what was thrown out there. Could it get there? Sure. Could it go down and touch it? Sure. Do I think it's going to? No. Um, that is because usually during bull markets, is it doesn't get as low as the 50-day moving average. I actually for Bitcoin-related things like to use the 20-day moving average. Um, oh shoot, didn't mean to do that. Arrow. Right there. Look back here. If you if you see back in 2020, see how it popped above its 20-day moving average back in July of 2020 and then just ripped higher, didn't even come close to the 20-week moving average. It was just miles away from the 50-day moving average. That's this is too far, too fast, too strong. Um, uh, I don't think it it will show that kind of strength, but I do think in general that below the 20-day moving average is a great buying opportunity. I will be um very surprised, not I mean I I'll give it like a I'm gonna say a 20% chance of getting as low as 221, uh uh the the 50-day moving average, but I don't think it gets that low honestly, personally, and this is not individual investment advice; this is just what I'm doing. I am buying more MicroStrategy at these levels, um, and not and uh I also uh like call options, by the way, and I'm not recommending this for anybody, but when we see this kind of oversold levels, let me get the RSI back here, and by oversold in a bull market, I mean basically anything below 55 to 50 on the RSI uh using uh the weekly RSI, to me that is pretty oversold in a in a a bear market, so I like these prices right here. Uh, I may or may not be buying call options also, uh, and the way I do that is I nibble in call options when it hits low, so I bought some last week also, uh, and now with lower prices, I put new buy orders in for, you know, lower-priced call options. I like calls that are about, you know, where I think the end of the cycle will be, so kind of late 2025, early 2026. Um, do not recommend these if you don't know what you're doing; they are very very volatile. Um, I usually only hold those for shorter-term positions, so when it gets oversold, I like to buy them, and if it shoots higher in the next couple of months, which I actually expect, um, I'll probably be selling my call options because they add massive amounts of, there are my my fund is already very volatile, and that makes them even more volatile, so um be careful if you're doing that. Would be all I have to say about that. Let me check on ZapStream. Dollar looking very strong still, yes, but I think it's probably going to get weaker uh throughout the year. Uh, my path to fire, but good thoughts, and let me see. I think I'm almost done, guys. Thanks for sticking with me. You guys are way too kind. I have some guests coming by the way in the next couple of weeks. I don't want to say who they are yet, um, but a couple people are lining up already, and I'm excited to bring them on the show. Satoan Aire, love it. Are you expecting Global M2 to rise this year more from foreign sovereigns like Europe and China than the US? We talked about that, and yes, I do. Uh, so good question. And if so, what effect does that have on the Trump administration's goal to get the Dixie lower? So the the dollar lower is what the other countries have been waiting for. So China couldn't do extensive, they couldn't inject their economy with a lot of liquidity, why while the dollar was getting stronger and while the Yuan was getting weaker, right? Because the more if they were to inject a ton of liquidity, that would it would it would basically cause the bottom to fall out of the Yuan. But now the dollar has broken; it's going lower. So now that frees up the ability of these other large countries, the EU, China, even Japan, um, you know, whatever other countries, they can start doing more QE per se. They can add more liquidity without causing the bottom to fall out. They don't have to try to defend their local currency anymore. Um, so that bodes well. So that's what I've been waiting for, and I believe that's what China was waiting for in order to start doing significant amounts of debasement for their own currency, uh, because you know, the dollar is weakening faster than the yuan is. It's all relative; these are all just relative games that countries play with each other. So that's a great question, and I would be watching that. So watch the dollar, and and now that the dollar is is breaking lower, I would be watching for other countries to start doing more, you know, QE type things or or not; they might not call it QE, you know, they'll call it what they call it, but they will be adding liquidity to their systems uh going forward. I think that was the question. So this is a repeat slide, but uh uh but but it's super important, especially with what happened to Larry Leard recently. Um, his Twitter X account got hacked, and he's been despairing, and I don't blame him; that's super stressful. Um, I I I had a similar thing happen to me, but I was able to thwart the bad guys in the nick of time, um, months ago, this back in the summer. That was actually a part of the reason why I I just dropped my X account. I'm like, you know, if it's that easy for somebody to go in and hack my account, um, that I you know, worked for years to to build up, uh, I don't care about that anymore, but you know, if I did, I would be very frustrated. So I'm just like, you know what, it's another reason just to come over to Nostr only and build a better world. So I'm only on Nostr, you guys. The only other thing I have is this YouTube channel, this Thinking Out Loud with Dr. Jeff Ross. I am not on Twitter and X. I am not on Facebook. I'm not on Instagram. All these other things, you can read this for yourself. Um, why do I say that? Because there are accounts who are impersonating me that are fooling people into doing things because these people think it's me. This is not me, you guys. I'm only on Nostr. So if there's a there's a big account on Instagram that I think I think it still is up even though people keep reporting it, and I've I've tried to report it, it has over 20,000 followers, and it's trying to get people to invest into a fake fund. It's not me, you guys. Please report it; it's a scam; it's an impostor. Don't don't be duped. Here's my Nostr public key. You can find me, Dr. Jeff, primal.net. So public service announcement today. Guest is the same slide as last week or two weeks ago. I don't have a guest this week, but I am going to start having conversations, which I'm excited about. Uh, I'm not going to spoil it by telling you who, but but that's something to look forward to. So that was my last thing. Um, I just want to see if anybody else has any questions before I go. Let me go over to YouTube. Oh, a lot of questions on the YouTube chat. Appreciate you guys. Chaz, thanks for coming. I appreciate you too. Um, you guys said you couldn't see the chart, but hopefully you could see it now. Okay. Rising job cuts due to Doge and AI, jobless claims and unemployment numbers could increase. Yes. How do you see this playing out for the market in Bitcoin? These I I think we'll see a little bit of market weakness, uh, or I should say the indicators will look a little weak; the economic indicators will look weak, and that's actually sort of counterintuitive that it will be positive for risk assets. I think because it gives the Federal Reserve more of an excuse to act on behalf of the markets and to, you know, to do policies that weaken the dollar, uh, and things that are good for risk assets in general. So kind of in in that, so Jen, I'm asking uh talking about your question. Um, good bad news is good news is how I would look at that. I don't think unemployment is going to go out of control. I'm in general actually a fan of what Doge is doing. I know some people are very upset by it. I think there is, if anyone was being honest with themselves, they would admit there is massive massive amount of government waste, right, and and inefficiency, and so I think it was time to do a thorough cleansing. Personally, some good people are going to lose jobs, and I'm I'm sad about that, and I feel bad for those people, but there is a lot of waste, and and when we say when we say government waste, what we're really saying is our tax dollars and our purchasing power is getting actively debased and taken from us to promote this waste, and so we want our government to be as small and trim as possible and as efficient as possible. That's how I look at it. Um, we talked about MSTR. Why do I think Bitcoin will outperform MSTR and MetaPlanet? Thomas the little, hey yeah, nello, smash the like button, by the way. Are people smashing the like button? I don't even know. I just smashed it, but it only says there's one like, so maybe that's me. I I like it, but that's just to get people to smash it. Um, why do I think it could outperform? Because MSTR and MetaPlanet have, they've front-loaded their performance; they've done really really really well over 2024. The reason I had a a really good year in my hedge fund, which was heavily uh into MicroStrategy and other Bitcoin proxies, is because they outperform Bitcoin. Usually as we get into the second half of a bull market, it's actually Bitcoin itself that outperforms the proxies. So there's no written rule; it doesn't have to do that, um, but I think it's very possible that Bitcoin itself will outperform the proxies. We could still see another good run-up, by the way, in these pro, and maybe it'll go on for a while, um, but you know, that's just my thought. Um, any other questions? Thanks, everybody. Justin, appreciate you guys. I really appreciate your kind words, everybody. I know I'm and I'm kind of rambling a little bit. Um, let me just go on to LLD. I see Thomas the little asking about that again, um, and so maybe I'll end with this chart. Share something else. Back to TradingView. Share LLD. Sold. Hasn't been around very long, right? So it's very very hard to um to talk about it. What do we notice about it? It's dumping, you right? It it was kicking it around 10; it peaked up on I think it's like kind of opening day on the NASDAQ up to 14; it got its high. So hopefully none of you bought it at 14, and now it's it's down more than 50% from there at $6. So I like the company Fold. I don't use the company Fold. Um, they are going to have a lot of competition from traditional um banks I think and other traditional financial institutions in the near future, so we'll see how that um how they do with that increased competition. They have basically no competition right now. I love it that they have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. I love it that they're Bitcoin only. I wish them well, um, but but I like to wait and see, right? I don't like early-stage investing. I actually used to work in early-stage investing in kind of angel investing in the healthcare space. I do not like working with companies that don't have proven um revenue, proven earnings, um, that founders and CEOs that know what they're doing, you know, a C-suite that knows what it's doing. Um, I just don't know Fold enough. I want to watch it and wait for a little bit. Now it's a Bitcoin proxy, so in a Bitcoin bull market, I would expect it to do well. Um, I do think I look briefly at kind of like its price to um price-to-sales um metrics, and it's not great; it was pretty overvalued I thought when it came onto the market. Um, we'll see. So so for me, it's a it's an interesting um company that's on my watch list, but I don't own, and I don't plan on owning until it looks better. Hopefully that makes sense. And you guys, I think that's about it. We've gone over an I just uh I'm thankful for you guys. Uh, thanks. I'm so glad some of you guys are on ZapStream for the first time. Welcome. Thank you guys for zapping. Uh, I appreciate it. Oh, that's Barry. Barry, welcome. Glad you made it. Um, ZapStream is awesome; it's still working out some kinks, um, but it's doing good work, and I love supporting open source, free, and like FOSS, right, free and open-source projects that are, you know, working for the benefit of humanity and that are trying to take away of the power and control of these massively powerful central entities like the social media companies, like the federal government. I love seeing power being redistributed back to the people. That's why I nuked all of my social media accounts ending in, you know, Twitter and X back in September. Um, it's a little painful to leave those things, and it's a little painful to get off YouTube and to get onto ZapStream, but they are doing awesome work, and I think it is the future. So I love putting my time and energy and one money into these networks that are creating a better world for humanity, for our kids and our grandkids and their kids and their kids and their kids. So thank you to all those who are doing that as well. It's a bit of a sacrifice, but we're building a better world, and I really believe that. Um, I appreciate you guys. I thank you all for being here. I don't know when I'm going to do the next one. What I'm waiting on is some of my uh guests who have offered to come uh when it works for them. Uh, I'll bring them on, and we'll have a we'll have a fun conversation with some fun people, um, and that's it, guys. So God bless you all. Thanks for watching, and we will talk next time. All right, take it easy.