BITCOIN : ATTENTION À CE GROS PUMP EN COURS 🚨 BREAK DE L'ATH OU PIÈGE ?? Analyse & Trading Crypto

Hello everyone, good morning. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market update. We will talk about BTC, which is not far from making a new ATH. We are really not very far. We will of course talk about Ethereum. We will look at some altcoins that you asked to analyze. I noted CRV, ICP, and IO. And we will of course talk about the US market. So, before I start, given the market context of BTC not being far from making a new ATH, a resumption of the bull run, I decided to put a promotion on the Crypto Investor program: €200 off. Crypto Investor is the best program to invest like a pro in crypto. Perhaps your portfolio is not well optimized at the moment, you may not have a profit-taking strategy, and you especially want to succeed in this bull market. You will find all the elements inside this program. 12 modules, 30 hours of video, covering fundamental analysis, tokenomics analysis. I also share the best crypto projects with you. I reveal my portfolio to you. We have a big module on technical analysis. I show you my rating system for choosing the best cryptos to put in your portfolio with complete live crypto analyses. I do analyses from A to Z, you can see it, three cryptocurrencies for 5 hours and 15 minutes. We go into great detail in the analysis, it doesn't take 5 or 10 minutes. No. Fundamental analysis, reading white papers, the roadmap, the team, and so on. You will see all of that inside this module. Especially building a tailor-made portfolio with a tool that will allow you to determine your profile and then have a portfolio adapted to your profile. Two modules, succeeding in your bull market and succeeding in your bear market so that, regardless of market conditions, you know what to do and can make the best decisions. And then, rather modules on financial management, mindset, emotions, and investment in general, and two new modules that will arrive in the coming months. A module on securing your cryptos, but really in a comprehensive way. Okay? And a module on DeFi. You also have bonuses, of course, with a bonus on securing cryptos, but I will go much deeper with the next module that will arrive. Access to the private circle of investors, the cheat sheet with ultimate support, you don't need to take notes since everything is written in this cheat sheet. And of course, free lifetime updates. This means that from the moment you join the program, all future courses will be free. You won't have to pay anything. Of course, classic follow-up, it's much more than training, it's almost mentorship since you have private message follow-up. So, as I said, you have €200 off right now to use for the resumption of this bull run. You just have to click on the first link in the description. If you have questions, you can simply send me a message right here.

So, I'll start here with BTC, which is very close to making a new ATH. We saw it, the moment we broke this level, for me, it was heading for the ATH. A small intermediate resistance at $1200, we consolidated slightly but ultimately broke through completely. So, it's rather good what it's doing. The ATH is not very far. There is no more resistance for me. We are 1% away from the ATH. There is a high chance we will reach it. It would honestly surprise me if BTC stopped here for a correction. We generally have no more resistance. This level, hop, becomes a support here. And now, well, we are in price discovery. The advantage of being in price discovery is that there are no buyers who are stuck. It's not like we have a retracement like at this level. And when we come back to test these different levels, here, we generally have buyers who are stuck and who can potentially exit their positions. At a loss, at break-even, whatever. And who slow down the price movement. Here, in price discovery, the only people who can slow down the price are simply buyers who wish to take profits. Okay? But we don't have stuck buyers who can act as resistance. So, I'm putting back the targets which are perfectly realistic in case we break this ATH. 118, 100% extension. So, generally between $135,000 and $141,000, those will be the two major objectives.

What we will also need to watch is the daily close at the ATH level. Why? Because when we are at a peak like this, generally, there is a high chance we will reach it. Now, we really need to see if there is a liquidity grab or a real breakout. If we start to have just a wick with a false breakout and we start to re-enter, we could simply be like what we did here. You see? Hop! on a false breakout, re-entry. Here, we have a strong bearish engulfing and we could experience a correction. If, on the other hand, we don't have that at all, we have a strong pump, we have acceptance above this level, okay? And we flip this resistance level into support, then we will have a high chance of reaching the next targets. So, this level is really going to be decisive. Watch how the daily close unfolds and generally monitor if there is acceptance above or not. In any case, I remain bullish. We have strong momentum. If I put a MACD here, we can see the momentum in daily, which is very powerful. We see that we are making new highs, we are going up strongly. On the intermediate timeframes, generally on 4h, we have a small bearish divergence but nothing alarming. We remain on a bullish price action, and a bearish divergence does not indicate a trend reversal. It might mean a small consolidation phase like we had at this level. Okay. But for now, when I look at the higher timeframes, especially daily, I remind you that the higher the timeframe, the more it prevails over the lower timeframes, okay? Daily is stronger than 4h, 4h is stronger than 1h. So, yes, we are going full speed towards the ATH for me. When I put moving averages, they are always trending upwards, we haven't even pulled back on the 15-minute chart, that's how powerful the momentum is here. After that, it's classic, it's trend continuation. When we have pullbacks in the 3-minute tunnel, that's where we have the best opportunities to position ourselves. The first one, when I made the video, we were around here. We came back to test the 3-minute tunnel, we left again, we returned to this level, we left slightly. Then we broke it and after that we had a false breakout, but generally we remain in an upward dynamic. This is true for most cryptocurrencies. See, BNB is taking off, it's rather good. So, for now, I have no reason to be bearish. However, be careful, this is not the time to go all-in, to absolutely position yourself. Honestly, the person who positions themselves here for the long term, why are you positioning yourself here? Okay, why didn't you get in at $108,000? It's always classic, we position ourselves at long-term support levels. Here, are we at a long-term support level? No, we are clearly at a resistance level. The long-term support level was at the daily tunnel level, and we've already gained 12% in a few days. So, yes, BTC is doing well in this regard.

When I look here, if we look at the order flow and check the pending limit orders to be executed, so this is simply a heatmap that allows us to see the sell orders or the buy orders below that are in the order book. Be careful, this is generally a representation of an order book. Here, we are on Binance BTC USDT. Here, we are on Coinbase, okay? BTC USD. This allows us to see generally where the pending orders are. You see, there are quite a few orders. Okay? Now, that doesn't mean we're going to reach them. And I remind you, be careful when interpreting. Often, it's very poorly interpreted, very few people use this kind of tool. Often, people start interpreting it as "Ah, if there's an order there, it's certain we'll execute it." Be careful, take into account that these are orders that can be removed overnight, even by the minute. It's like when you place an order, it will be displayed in the order book. So, at $125,000, we see that there are 388 BTC ready to be sold. If you decide to sell two, it will go to 390. If you remove them, it will go back to 388. So, this can happen very quickly, but it always provides a good overall representation of where orders can be located. They can be interesting levels that can act as support and resistance. See if there is support below, like at this level. And here, the biggest level is $125,000. After that, it's quite classic, it's a psychological number and often that's where many people place their orders.

When I look at the order flow, we have a funding rate that is still quite neutral, it's not exploding, and that's really good for reaching a new ATH without a high funding rate. We see it here, often when we have significant funding, that's where we hit tops. I remind you, funding allows what? It allows to keep the price of the perpetual contract close to the price of the spot contract. Okay? Because a perpetual contract and futures prices of the spot contract are two different contracts. Okay? It simply allows to align the price of the perpetual contract so that there isn't too much manipulation. And when we have funding that is quite high, it means that longs pay fees to shorts. And when we have strongly elevated funding, it's often a sign that we have strong euphoria, strong demand, a lot of longs. Okay? And that's often where we hit tops, we saw it during the 2021 bull run with strongly elevated funding. On the other hand, when we have negative funding, that's often where we hit bottoms. See here, it's the FTX crash. So, for now, not a lot of euphoria there. When I look at the spreads, it's generally the same. What are spreads? It's the price difference between the perpetual contract and the spot contract. It allows us to see if there is more demand for the perpetual contract than for the spot contract. A price on futures that is higher than the spot price indicates that demand is higher. Here, that's not particularly the case. We still have negative spreads, and again, these are signs that generally indicate tops. Now, we can go up and stay there, it's not that as soon as we go back above zero that it's time to sell, but generally when we start to settle at 30, 40, 50, that's when it indicates, okay, we might be in a euphoria phase. So, what's interesting here, it's important to always combine technical analysis and euphoria. From a technical point of view, we are breaking resistances. And from a market sentiment point of view, it's rather good. We don't have a big market euphoria compared to certain moments where sometimes we had a pump, we made a new ATH, we weren't far, and everyone was getting excited. Here, for now, I find that the pump is happening rather calmly, and that's well, I'd say, all the better. So, that's it for BTC.

Now, I'm going to show you a trade I took today that is still ongoing. A trade on Ena. Okay, I had a setup that executed. A very interesting setup. Well, let me give you the context on Etena. For me, it's already a crypto where I took a long at this level because we had broken this sideways phase. We are generally in a range. It's a crypto that was very strong, that pumped very well in July-August. We see it clearly. We did a x3 here. Then we had a small correction. We see -35%, and generally we are in a sideways phase. We are in this range phase, we came back to test our daily tunnels, and we had a very good rebound, we had a very good rejection that broke the previous highs. So, here I had a signal at that moment, a rejection at the daily tunnel level, and I have a signal that shows us, okay, we are reversing our dynamic. How do I see it already? Dow theory, meaning we are no longer making lower highs, since we broke the previous high, and now we are back above the moving averages, above the 1-hour tunnel, above the 15-minute tunnel. So, generally, I have a setup here that executed at the time of the pullback into the 15-minute tunnel. Okay? So, entry in the 15-minute tunnel, invalidation below the daily tunnel and below the low where I had my buying reaction. And here, generally, my TP is to reach the opposite extremity. Which gives me a risk-reward of 3:1, which is rather good. Of course, if I start to have invalidations, I will take partial profits. If I start to have bad signs, I will exit. But here, a trade, as usual, not the majority of trades, but almost a majority of trades, I show them to you. The ones I show you the least are often when they are very short-term and not ongoing. Sometimes I give you summaries, I tell you, I took this trade, but generally, I prefer to show you trades that are ongoing rather than closed trades. It's always more interesting to follow up, and for that, it's often swing trading trades. So, trades that I will hold for several days, several weeks. That's the case for me with Ethanal. It's not a trade that will be validated in one day, unless we have a big 30% candle, but that's very unlikely. But, but yes, it's always nice to do a little follow-up. It allows you to see, first of all, the entry, how I entered the position, because it's fresh, it happened this morning. Okay? The entry, why I entered the position, then there's the whole trade management part, how I will manage this trade. With good risk management, and nothing prevents me from taking a loss. It's not because I took this trade that it's 100% sure it will go through, I have good risk management on my end. And likewise, it's not because I'm showing this trade that it's investment advice and that you should do the same. We all have different profiles, different strategies, and it's just for educational purposes to show you generally how I position myself and generally what my entry, my strategy is, and how I will simply manage this trade. So, we will follow up on Etena. So, this is a trade I wanted to show you. I haven't shared many of them lately. So, here, I'm sharing one.

Today, regarding Ether, well, Ether is doing quite well. Similarly, by re-entering this level, we saw it together, we had a high chance of reaching the opposite extremity, $4500. We reached it here. We had a small phase where we retraced, which is normal, it's a resistance level, it's normal to face a counterparty and sellers showing up, but nothing alarming. We even see it on the short term, we slightly retested the 15-minute tunnel and the daily pivot point. We see clearly today that we had a phase between the daily pivot point high at 4550 which acted as resistance. The daily pivot point low at 4440 which acted as support. So, Ether remains bullish, not as much as BTC. Currently, BTC has strong momentum. Okay, it will come, I am convinced of it. But now that we have passed this level, the next resistance on Ether is generally $4800. So, we are in a phase where the goal is not to start panicking, to say "I have to short the market top, that's it, I have to find the perfect top." Because people who look for the perfect top short here, get stopped out, short here, get stopped out, short here, get stopped out, short here. Maybe they take a profit here, then they short again, they get stopped out all the time. No, assume that we are in an uptrend, we have an upward flow, okay? So, generally, we put our moving averages. Okay. And all the pullbacks into these moving averages are opportunities to position ourselves. You see it clearly, the 3-minute tunnel connects well. Ah, there are opportunities to take longs at this level, at this level, all here, there are opportunities to take longs at this level. This level, maybe you take a long at this level and you get stopped out. But if you managed your risk well, winning trades compensate for a loss, and by a lot. And logically, it's the opposite. When you take two or three losses with one gain, you are supposed to clearly compensate for the loss you made. That's risk management, and that's why we always want to have interesting risks. We are also breaking the weekly pivot point. We are settling above it. So, yes, Ether is very, very bullish in this regard. Now, be careful, when I say very bullish, it's at this moment. If in 4 hours, 1 hour, maybe not 1 hour since we are on H4, but if in 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, we start to have invalidations. It can be very simple. On Ether, we do this, we break the 15-minute, we pullback and we make this type of structure. Then I will tell you, ah, here we were bullish and that's a fact. In the meantime, re-entry, reversal structure, high chance of going back to test $4200. This is generally adapting based on what we see. And I really want you to get out of this mentality where you have to think you always have to anticipate. And I remember a comment I had on YouTube that is quite crazy. I don't remember when it was, but let's say it was at this level where I said, well, I'm bullish on Ether, Ether is going up. I'm bullish on Ether and it's going up. Then, when I have a pattern like this, hop, and we are here, I tell you, ah, Ether, I don't like what it's doing, I'm becoming a bit bearish. And then someone tells me, "No, wait Nico, you were bullish and now you're becoming bearish." Yes. Yes. In fact, the market changes. I have signals that appear. I have things that I don't want to see. So, yes, it's not because I'm bullish. For example, today, I'm bullish. Yesterday, I'm bullish, and I intend to stay bullish as long as the market shows me bullish signals. It's not because in a week, in 3 days, I will have a signal that is not great. I will say, "Ah, that's not good, be careful, I'm bearish." I'll be told, "Ah no, I don't understand, you were bullish." Well, the market evolves. It's perfectly normal to adapt based on what we see. But yes, currently Ether is doing well. BTC is doing well. And as I said, we are very, very close to making a new ATH. We might even see it live.

Regarding the ETH/BTC chart, it's also a chart I'm watching. Why? Because here we can see the outperformance of Ether against BTC. I remind you, on the long term, we put in a bottom, okay? And logically, these are levels that should absolutely not be broken. Typically, when we have this kind of bottom, it's very rare that we hunt these lows. You see, it's like this W structure we made. There's a very low probability we'll go back below these lows. W structures on weekly, or even on major assets, are very rarely broken. Now, we can experience a retracement phase. That's perfectly possible. We had a good pump, if I look at the percentage, we've had good performance. Nothing prevents us from potentially retracing, leaning on the daily tunnel to put in a bottom. In any case, it's not because ETH is falling against BTC that Ether will fall against the dollar. It just indicates that at the moment, BTC, as we see in terms of performance, is performing better than Ethereum.

So, that's it for BTC and Ether. Regarding altcoins currently, the most interesting is BNB, that hasn't changed. You see the importance of what I'm telling you, and this is the discipline I have every day now for a long time, to do the work every day of looking at which cryptocurrencies are the strongest. And you can't say I haven't been telling you about BNB for a while. I'm not here to say, "Look, I told you so." No, that's not the goal. The goal here is to make you understand, because many people are looking for altcoins. Now, I'm really talking about trading, about long-term investment. Weekly, I don't buy BNB, not possible. However, for those looking to trade intraday or swing, it works for both. Many have the mindset of saying, "Ah, but it's too much, I can't buy, or be careful, I'll buy cheap altcoins because then when it pumps, no, that's not how it works." And BNB is an example. And many other cases we've had before, I remember Sushi, I remember many other cryptocurrencies that pumped and had strong momentum. When we have momentum that is very bullish like this, we have trend continuation. And BNB is the perfect example where I told you in September. Now, this is an altcoin that stands out, that outperforms BTC. We see it clearly at this level, BNB, if I look, I'll switch to this chart, see BNB here, it's magnificent on H4. Yes, it's magnificent. And we clearly have an outperformance of BNB against BTC here. And well, you put moving averages, and as soon as we have pullbacks, 15-minute tunnel, 1-hour tunnel, hop, these are opportunities to position yourself. When we have more significant retracement phases, H4 tunnel, it's also a good zone to position yourself. And we see clearly that for a while now on intraday, in the 3-minute tunnel, there have been setups. We see it go from $1000 to $1200, $1160 very quickly, plus 13-14%, which is huge for an asset like BNB, which is here in the top market cap, which must be, therefore, 4th, something like that, maybe even 3rd, 5th. There's Ethereum, well, 5th, it's huge, such an evolution. We are on one of the most capitalized altcoins, so in the short term, there are opportunities to perform. And don't tell yourself, "Ah, it's not doing, ah, it's not doing x3, x4, it's not interesting." Okay, it's always proportional to the altcoin we are trading. BNB won't do x4 in 2 days, that's perfectly normal. But, well, if we take the strongest altcoins, the proof again, yesterday, what was I talking about? I was talking about Aptos. I told you Aptos is a strong crypto. We see that there is a slight decoupling currently. It stands out, okay? Because yesterday, it performed well. Well, where is it today? It's also one of the strongest cryptos that is performing well. We see it clearly. Hop, if I go to the Aptos chart anyway. Hop. Now, I won't put it on Coinbase because I won't have enough liquidity. We see clearly that yesterday, it was a strong crypto. Okay, as evidenced by this chart which is strongly bullish. Well, today, it's still a bullish chart. And if you start to proceed this way, taking strong altcoins and trading them in the direction of the flow. Of course, this altcoin will eventually become weak. I don't know when, but at some point it will become weak. That's where risk management comes in. That's why it's not just all good and rosy, we take a strong altcoin, we long it, and it will be too easy. It's over, you'll be profitable easily. No, then there's risk management, there's all that to consider. But first, do the work of identifying the altcoins that stand out. Okay? And then, trade them in the direction of the flow.

So, I'm taking my notes. Which altcoin? I already said CRV. So, hop. CRV, where are we? Still at quite low levels. Tac. Generally still in a sideways phase. Not the most interesting crypto currently, which could become so if we start to break. Now, if we are looking for strategies for bottoms, the interesting signal was at the pullback of the neckline. You see these necklines, it's something I teach you quite often. W structure, we see it clearly here. The low, the high, the higher low, the break, the pullback. Okay. Necklines are always gems. Okay? I love necklines because they always give us very good entries, especially when the structures are like this with not much volatility, generally flat. You see, I clearly prefer a W structure of this type, or from the lowest point to the highest point, we are at 70%, but the volatility is still compressed compared to this type of structure where, well, we are at 140%. It's a bigger W, it's less interesting. So, on CRV, we are, yes, we are not in the best zone to position ourselves clearly. Ah, this is interesting. It's interesting. There was a lot of volume exchanged at the bottom with a pump here. There was quite a bit of volume. If I put a volume indicator here, we'll see it. Okay, quite a bit of volume. Here, quite a few people accumulated, for sure. We break the value area high, we are settling above it for now. For me, the big signal on CRV is given on the long term if we settle above this level, because then we would break a range that has lasted since generally 2022, and then we could experience a more significant retracement phase. I'll put a Fibonacci to see the levels to watch. 0.382. Yes, for me, if we break this level and validate, I mean, confirm this big bottom, we would have a high chance of reaching 0.382. It's a minimum target of the structure, we would still be on a quarterly accumulation pattern, and then the objective would of course be 0.618. Now, it's not validated yet. Ideally, on this type of range, either I position myself at a low extremity at this level with an invalidation below the structure because if we break, well, I want to exit, I'm not interested in staying positioned below a structure, well, if we settle below the structure because we exit the range downwards, or I wait for a break of my upper extremity and I have an invalidation if we re-enter this level. This way, generally, I position myself on this type of range. So, that's it for CRV.

Next, what did I say? I said ICP. So, ICP, where are we? We pumped well at one point. ICP, we are in a good localization zone now. We don't really have the reversal pattern, we don't really have a strong signal. While we did have a strong pump, x6, we retraced very well, but here I don't like this type of crypto where I say, well, it's crazy, because in the last few months, in the last few weeks, we have cryptos that have performed very well. I'll put, I'll put Total 3 next to it. We have cryptos that have performed very well. ICP hasn't moved. There's no demand, and that's what I was telling you earlier, I prefer to position myself on cryptos where there is demand. Even if it means entering a bit higher. Now, it's true that in the long term, it's generally more interesting to position yourself when we are at low levels like this. Except that what we need is a buying reaction. Because for now, what do I observe? We are still trading below the daily tunnel and we still have a bearish price action here. If we start to have here, first of all, a first pump, maybe we reject again into the daily tunnel. This time, we validate a higher low than the previous one. Hop, we enter a small range, we break like this. If we have this kind of structure with, for example, a daily tunnel that will generally do this, and then we flip it at this level into support, see, hop, we break, we flip into support, ideally with a better, a more elongated pattern that puts in a bigger bottom. Then it's already more interesting. For now, what I observe is that we are in a bearish dynamic. Now, we could see a big range here, and we are at the low extremity. Yes, that's possible, but locating your zone is good, it's the most important thing. When we analyze a chart, when we frame our charts as I call it. The most important thing is to know where we want to intervene. But once we have determined where we want to intervene, then what we need is the signal. For now, I absolutely don't see the signal, and we would need to break the daily tunnel to have it.

Crypto IO, young crypto from memory. Yes, young crypto, bearish, which broke a major level, sideways phase. I think it's a crypto that still has a lot of tokens to release. IO 325. What do we have? Yes, you see market cap. So, market cap is price times the number of circulating tokens. Okay? And here we see that we have a FDV that is largely above the market cap. FDV is simply the market cap if all tokens are in circulation. And we see that we have a total supply of 800 million with a circulating supply of 200 million here. So, we still have x4 to go on the supply. It's not, it's still quite significant. And, well, what we would need to see is how the tokens are released. I don't know if I can see that here. What's the name again? Ionet. Io.net. Io.net. It's here. Well, okay. Chainbroker, it's a good tool to see different information. Well, we have just started the unlocking phase here. So, imagine how it works: when you launch, generally, you have different, you have all the tokens now that are already mined, okay? It's not like before where projects like BTC, for example, where not all tokens are in circulation and not all tokens are mined. Here, all tokens are just locked in smart contracts. They will be distributed to different stakeholders, different actors like the team, the community, development, private investors, and so on. And then, there will be unlocking phases like this with, well, from 2026 here to 2028, a big unlocking phase where, automatically, the fact that there are unlockings means that investors who benefited from low prices. We see it here. $0.10, $0.30. Yes, that's right. When we look at the current price. Well, they are slightly positive, but it's not huge either. Sometimes, with certain projects, private investors will get x20, x30, x100. Sometimes, it happens. Put yourself in their shoes. You have x100, your tokens are unlocked, you sell them or at least a good portion of them. So, this generally creates downward pressure. That's why when we had this drop in December 2024, January, February, or even the last drops we've had in the last two years, new tokens took much more expensive because they had a lot of tokens to unlock, which creates additional selling pressure. So, this is something to learn. Now, this is something I teach even more in-depth in the Crypto Investor program in the Tokenomics section. Here, we really go into detail, okay, on how it generally works. I'll show you my strategies, what I generally like to see to have a crypto to position myself well. Here, in any case, from a tokenomics point of view, IO is not particularly amazing. Sometimes, there can be tokens that have quite a lot of locked tokens that will be unlocked, but they are rather well distributed. But here, moreover, when I look at the technical side, I don't like it at all. We are still trading below the daily tunnel. There could be an interesting upside if we start to break this level. The disadvantage is that we are quickly on a resistance just after. So, perhaps position yourself on a smaller W to have a signal that might be less strong but with an interesting risk-reward, and of course, have an invalidation here below the structure. So, that's it from my side on the cryptos you asked to analyze. Don't hesitate to join the Discord, we'll be there to monitor the BTC ATH. I wish you a very good evening. Don't hesitate if you want to join the Crypto Investor program and take advantage of the €200 off. I'm telling you, you will clearly be ready and well-prepared to succeed in your bull market if you join it. You will have all the elements to take your profits well, have a good strategy, build a real action plan that will allow you to be profitable, and even if you enter a bear market in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, you will clearly know what to do. So, you also need to prepare for a potential bear market, we don't know when, but you need to be ready with the necessary knowledge. I'll leave you with that. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.