Transcription
Hi, this is Kri Arttech with Wicked Stocks, bringing you an individual stock pick: Taiwan Semiconductor, symbol TSM. I recorded this video on Tuesday, March 4th, 2025.
We can take a look at the basic fundamentals, courtesy of Yahoo Finance. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, symbol TSM, has a market capitalization of almost a trillion dollars, at $922 billion. Average daily trading volume is 16 million over the last three months.
We're going to jump to the weekly bar chart—the same bar chart throughout. This chart goes back some 10 years, and you can see, as we zoom in just a bit, over the last three or four years, a very well-defined rising channel bottom. This is sort of the last channel structure you can create that is valid. I mean, you can create channels all over the place, but this is the last one; usually, the last one is the most important one. And that is at 172.70, off that October 22nd low. So it's over two years in the making. Long-term support at 172.37 can contain selling through the second quarter. From here, we can round up to 238.47.
I'm going to say 3 to 5 months. Now, I don't know the exact timing here. From what looks to be an August low to what looks to be kind of an October high, that was about two months, 2 and a half months in itself. I think 3 to 5 months is—and then you can see another similar situation here where you've got October of '23 and it looks like roughly June of '24. So that is more like, you know, eight or nine months. So I'm going to call it 3 to 5 months as a possibility. Buying at 172.37, you're holding out for channel resistance at 238.47.
Now, near-term swing traders, 3 to 5-week swing traders, can play the assumed pop to the upside to 206.49 over the next 3 to 5 weeks. Holding above 172.37, we've got 206.49 as a kind of a 1 to 2-month target. 3 to 5 weeks, I think, is likely. 206.49 is dropping 3.32 a week. I also present 206.49 as the buy signal on strength. So if you're going long on Taiwan Semiconductor, you're either, in my opinion, buying at 172.37—and I'm talking kind of longer-term position players—or you're buying on strength with a settlement above 206.49, which is dropping 3.32 a week. It'll be in the 190s over the next 2 or 3 weeks, and dropping 3.32 a week. We could trade inside that 172.37 to 206.49 area. I'm talking those formations, not the exact numbers, because the formations change through time. We could fill that wedge out for the next 3 to 5 weeks. Closing above 206.49 is your green light for a bullish continuation to 238.47 within 2 to 3 months, depending on the timing of that. But I consider 238.47 a realistic target that is likely to be reached by the end of the year or sooner. We're early in the year; I think 3 to 5 months would be a pretty robust possibility, and that has certainly happened before. We have precedent for that. We also have precedent for taking eight or nine months, if you will, over the last couple of years.
And that kind of covers the upside. Now, for the downside, if we were to close this week below that channel structure, which spans more than two years, it does deserve the 1% violation threshold to the downside. So if we were to close Friday at 170.64 or lower—in other words, a 1% violation of the 172.37 channel bottom—then we enter a long-term sell signal that should, within a matter of 2 to 3 months, yield the low to mid 140s. You can see the old high area there, kind of a double top, 142.19 to 145 even, from February 21st to January 22nd. Bound to be some support there. We could bounce off of there for a week, a month, perhaps several months. But I will say closing below 172.37 takes the—the—the wind out of the sails, so to speak, for Taiwan Semiconductor as we move through the rest of the year. And I would say within two to three months, the low to mid 140s; and by the end of the year, possibly within 3 to 5 months, with a kind of a higher volatility meltdown collapse to 109.55.
Closing below 172.70 is an objective that is likely to be realized by the end of the year, possibly sooner than that. 109.55 is a channel structure that spans some four or five years; it's rising 42 cents a week. You can track it through time. It's a very buyable support; in other words, an area that may well contain annual lows. And we can round up from there, and I expect it by the end of the year, possibly much sooner. If we close this week below the 172.37 channel bottom, until then we are once again expecting upward continuation to the 238.47 channel top into later in the year, possibly over the next 3 to 5 months. And that becomes confirmed, really, with a settlement above that descending channel top in the coming weeks, above 206.49. And you have all the levels and how they're changing through time. You can mark this through time; you can rewatch the video. You know, this is for the week of March 3rd; then you would add to this, you know, for March 10th, March 17th, etc., etc. Those are the weeks ahead. All right, I think that pretty much covers it. I'm going to leave it at that for this week's—or for this particular Wicked Stocks video analysis on Taiwan Semiconductor. You have a great day.