Transcription
OMC as we get ready to do what we do
best and that is take a look at the
markets and do our best to stay on the
right side of the most important trade
that matters oh so many good memes over
the days I was thinking earlier today by
the way this is Jordan with conquer
trading and investing if you're new here
welcome and if you're not welcome back
ctm I was thinking one day I got a text
message from a broker and the text
message was Bitcoin is doing Bitcoin
things I was like how amazing they had
no idea that that we coined that Meme
and then there it becomes famous when
other when Brokers start using it as a
marketing tool absolutely beautiful
stuff there were some people asking in
the comments yesterday if we would take
a look at things like from I'll call it
from the old guard for back from the
from a couple past cycles xrp and
Litecoin so we're gonna we're going to
incorporate that into today's session
which means that as I get into it and I
start getting really focused and we're
covering right now Bitcoin
markets micro
strategy if I get a little controversial
if I get caught up into the work that
we're doing someone make sure please
remind me I want to make sure that we
look at both Litecoin xrp
and share some thoughts on those as best
we
can I'm so happy to be here with you all
today but tomorrow we are we are
traveling to be with and get with family
for the holidays we'll have no uh
session tomorrow and Friday Friday as
well the next time we'll be together
will be on Monday that will be December
the 23rd and we'll make sure that we uh
we have our session together in the
meantime and I hope things don't often
go you have to be flexible things don't
always go as you plan my goal tomorrow
why flying is to go ahead and take our
dashboard with all of our strategy and
scripts for both stocks and and crypto
and then reorganize it clean it up as
well as include the version numbers for
each script for example this would be
lab it's right here might be confusing
if someone didn't build this with us
right and let's say B buy and sell
Bitcoin that's BTC ctm that's ctm 2.0
I'll make sure it's known and then as
you go down further over here on on buy
side only on bitcoin this is BTC 101 uh
obviously you would not know that until
you click on it right but it's a little
bit easier it'll be easier to find if I
go ahead and label all these and this
one over here this says BTC on the buy
and sell side that would be versions BTC
108 and 107 and then over here I'll also
include the performance video so that
everyone has an idea to go ahead and
dial in on where they want to be uh
attacking from and then the stocks right
we have now ctm 2.0 and across the we
don't trade ctm 2.0 on stocks right from
January 2023 we're all using ctmx for
stock so I'll go ahead and I I I don't
want to well I'll just make a copy well
we have them all saved I want to make it
easy accessible but I need to clean it
up so that's what I'm GNA do and that is
my
goal boom boom boom Justin thanks for go
ahead and smashing the like button
before we even get started I really
appreciate that every once in a while I
start seeing like the thumbs up flying
and I'm like what and it gets me just
really geared up and we get to go ahead
and get into it
um I'm going to just go ahead vinette
and favored that comment as we get into
it be able to to bring that back up take
a look at it and then we'll go uh the
10year o i i i mean well you can't be
concerned we could talk about being on
the right side and at the right time and
and so first of all like this is when we
were like ah time to sell bonds and this
is on the 10y year and this is like ah
time time to close out the trade like
nice grab we're like I bet Stanley is
still holding I bet Stanley D Miller's
still holding we were looking for and
talking about in past in past Cycles
when the FED had began cutting and and
bonds reacted as such they were two
previous Cycles both of those Cycles
wound up go you know right around this
point I remember the date how many days
after they each had a pullback and then
they took out their high now one of them
had a deeper pullback and it barely took
out the high the other one had a shorter
pullback and it made in you know a much
more aggressive high this pullback so
far it hasn't taken the high yet has
been pretty pretty uh shallow uh so it
looks to me that there's a strong chance
that it's going to be taking out the
high now this is where we said H exit
enter you look at that break even like
and this was just exit this was get
neutral get yourself protected this was
get back into the trade if we see a
breakdown of this line here that would
mean that this last entry selling bond
is exited now I don't I can't predict
the future and I don't know what
happens and and that's where most macro
people just simply get it wrong they're
really really really great at afterwards
explaining to you and articulating why
everything happened but in real time
they're very very very poor at being at
the right on the right side at the right
time I don't I that's all I could say is
being on the right side and we continue
to be on the right side right this was
one of the best over here this was short
bonds neutral long short Bonds in and
out flip floing back and forth and then
riding it exiting here and then shortly
after we had the Double Black Diamond
breakdown and not we we we then were
able to not not take the trade more or
less right we just watched what happened
until here and this was the exit but
then we stayed neutral this whole time
we stayed neutral up until this point
now you can say well there was plenty of
opportunity here there was plenty of
opportunity here okay you can't you
can't nail everything and when things
are not like very clear
it's best to stay neutral it's best to
stay neutral and just wait into things
and Clarity uh Jim Rogers used to talk
about I just wait until I see money on
the other side of the room and then I go
pick it up and and that's for me that's
that's that waiting portion and waiting
until right here the Stars aligned
there's a nice easy was I guess there's
nothing easy about it but a nice grab
so
um this chart this is my chart this is
my chicken scratch that I used during
the live streams these all of our our
strategies are available all of our
strategies the charts that actually have
you know
um when we buy when we sell yada yada
yada all right let me keep going let me
get into it I didn't even get started
yet and before we get started
before before we get into it I'm just
looking here at this beautiful chart of
Bitcoin because Bitcoin is beautiful
Bitcoin is beautiful and I I remember or
I pulled up this template which I hadn't
seen or looked at in the longest time
and when I say longest time I mean like
re before we started doing our work so
this is at some
point in 20
22 and it's pretty cool to see yeah this
is like forward testing and it's pretty
cool to see the breakout the retest and
then the resumption up on the breakout
of the bull market to get this this line
over here all I did was clone this line
and just bring it over here it's the
same exact angle and by the way this led
to ultimately this led to the work that
we're doing talk about chicken scratch
that I'm so excited about that chart I
can't show it to you right now so you've
seen this chart over here and you've
seen my my version of of having the
lines on it and we put it all together
but more importantly this line over here
Drew my attention again I hadn't looked
in this in a couple years now and the
reason that this line Drew my attention
was because there was one thing of
calling the bull market breakout at the
right time back here on a live stream
ctm public live stream back in the SU of
2020 on the break of this trend line
there was a good thing about getting
making the bullish case for Bitcoin in
this pocket over here getting people
really just onboarded onto Orange coin
and helping them understand the bullish
case for Bitcoin at the right time and
over here from a discretionary
standpoint I have a tweet over here
saying there's blood in but I wanted to
be able to from a more I don't want to
say mechanical from a a more planned way
to be able to get the bottom of this
cycle because this is
good but this is
best and I think that in you know in
seeing this line here this morning and
then remembering and seeing the work
that we did in real time go to the
YouTube channel and go to December 2022
call the bull market
breakout and it's
17,250 why sentiment was extremely
negative FTX blowing up we were able to
get as early as possible on the right
side I I love checking back and and
seeing that over here today we're
looking at Bitcoin trading at
$14,000 I have this range over here this
this this draw down on bitcoin it's the
largest draw down of Bitcoin thus far
this cycle roughly 33% we've had other
draw Downs here it is over here at 33%
32% prior to that draw down we've had a
couple of 22% draw downs we had one two
three four five well this should be one
two we didn't make an all-time high so
or or a new high so it's a hard one but
we had we had a few 22 20% draw downs
and then we put in the high the highest
or largest draw down today thus far in
this cycle and that was nothing special
that was just a lot of consolidation and
that consolidation has obviously led to
this neg leg up and it looks good and
then if you look at that
chart that looks like upward
accumulation is is taking place to me
we'll get more into that in one second
but Point here is draw Downs are
expected thus far
the degree of draw down in the bare
Market was was sore less volatility as
well so far in the bull market run has
seen a little seen less volatility you
could just compare the past Cycles over
here and you could say well you know
there was a lot of volatility in this
cycle some big draw Downs in the
previous cycle and ultimately they had
the same draw down
85% so I'm looking
at this chart over oh they're not
showing bare markets we're showing
correction during the bull market phases
okay so during the bull market phases
it's very clearly notable that the
downside draw down was much greater in
the last cycle than it was going back
two cycles we had things like the
midcycle dip which s over a 50%
correction and we had the the the global
lockdowns which obviously saw a large
correction had those things not happened
we still had some pretty deep
Corrections coming off of that that run
over here to June 2019 Bitcoin
correcting 50% and that was because we
saw some problems in the in the in the
in the financial system that's and and
this point where my arrow is right now
where my curser is actually where the
FED had to stop QT and then they began
organic they called it balance sheet
expansion the balance sheet started
going the other way risk started
responding equities melted up until we
had glob Global lockdowns over here and
in comparing this cycle to this other
shallower cycle say there's a lot of
similarities in the price action as well
look at this this nice parallel it's not
parallel but call it parallel with me
look at that nice parallel like you
could see that we're coming up here thus
far there's a lot of similarities except
the one difference is the draw Downs
have been and shallower there were
multiple 30% and 35% draw Downs in this
cycle this time so far we're looking at
20% and 130% so we are seeing diminished
uh draw downs and and I I imagine that
we're not going to see such such a Arc
to the upside now a lot of people think
different and everything's on the table
Samson now believes that we're going up
to to 500,000 overnight he does or or
even a million but let's say 500
500,000 and that as soon as state
adoption begins that it's going to put a
quick and sharp bid into Bitcoin that
could happen
absolutely we don't know there is a
chance if something like that happened
and you're trading in and out of Bitcoin
that you're not in that trade at that
time now if it's a reeling lasting mood
will'll be able to get in and take a
piece out of it obviously bullmark
Bitcoin Bill Market runs will be there
these things could happen the are these
risks
Craig uh the mid mid midcycle dip put a
lot of fear and fud out there but there
is no question I I remember the video in
the summer of
2021 saying that Bitcoin was trading
30,000 by October we're going to make a
new all-time high we nailed that I think
that was lucky in retrospect
that's that's beautiful Noah I I love to
know what a influence we've had on on so
many people out there in effect and I I
got to hear a little bit of Insider
Insight yesterday and and now you
sharing that I I love it that's
beautiful thank you for sharing that
with me I I really value that a lot
because ultimately we're here to help as
many people as possible live better
lives and Bitcoin and and draw Downs
normal and that consolidation looks
awesome and it looks like right now that
we have that that cylinder um
consolidation going on and it reminds me
of of this on a lesser time
frame so let me jump down look at this
this is the bubble of the do bubble and
pop and look at this upward cylinder
that was taking place you could see it
over here during ing uh
1999 and it was just upward accumulation
and then it led to that boom that
exuberant pop look at this one though
this seems to be at a sharper angle more
along the lines of what we're in here
from 2023 bottom up until now 2024 end
and that is that just nice channel of
accumulation just so you could see it
and and you know what I'm talking about
let me just come over here and pick
right there so you can see it here that
looks very very similar very similar and
very very healthy it does remind me of
what you saw down here as well look at
that very very very good and very
healthy had a nice big leg up out of
that we haven't experienced that yet
right and then so let me just show you
let me just add a couple of lines over
here and then we'll get into micro
strategy next next but hey you know we
got to go with the flow and we got to
take the last so this is the first one
I'm going to draw two channels right so
this is one channel but this channel
kind of broke right here and then we
started a steeper Ascent so you can see
like this Channel and that that seems to
be I'll remove the first one now the
first one is just make them different
color there so this seems to be the
channel and and the slope that we're
into
now and this is where we started right
you see them together and what would
happen is so I talked about you know the
potential yesterday I think for my
expectations on the NASDAQ if we were to
see something like right I said it's
potential here it looks to me I know
people are talking about recession I I
don't think Bitcoin will act well in a
recession unless there is actually real
nation state bidding going on then we
talked about that clearly in yesterday's
session if you didn't watch it we don't
have a session tomorrow go ahead and
watch yesterday's stream there's
actually a bunch of videos click on the
live Tab and there's a bunch of videos
over the last few weeks with just
immense immense discussions taking place
highly highly recommend it all it's is
it possible by the end of
2025 we reach NASDAQ
30,000 now we also talked about in the
past S&P 500 three times since 1928 has
put up back-to-back years of 20% gains
this is the fourth time right now 2023
2025 we looked at what potentially could
happen afterwards and the truth is
nobody knows all is we could do is
continue to stay on the right side even
if we see something regardless of what
we
see so if let's assume that Bitcoin uh
NASDAQ here uh we see like a Resurgence
here of the semis we start seeing uh
throughout next year markets uh doing
continuing the momentum they have and
even maybe NASDAQ being able to towards
the end of next year print
$30,000 now if that happens I'm going to
look around and I get it I know people
are looking for a recession right now it
could happen we at any point in time
things begin to change it's why we show
up every day and put the work in we're
going to try to stay in front of it and
navigate it it doesn't look like that
we're headed in that direction but it
could change and and things could the
macro could change rapidly the macro
could change rapidly I remember saying
that to you all if you go back into July
of
2020 I'm get I'm getting confused here I
think it was July of
2022 it was and this is where uh we had
that hot inflation print or was it the
summer of July 2021 I don't I'm not
exactly sure uh but we had the 9.1
inflation print and people people were
going bonkers on inflation and then we
looked at things together we looked at
prices of energy we looked at prices of
of Commodities and we looked at prices
of food and I and I said this is the
turn this is the turn and it was the
turn and you couldn't we couldn't have
done it any more ACC now people were not
able to in that moment embrace it and
not until October November when not did
it Peak but then it began rolling over
and the dis inflation momentum really
picked up but in real time we were right
there and able to get it and I hope that
that continues we have a really strong
history of that and and a lot of people
just they check in every day because
they know that if something were to
occur that usually we have a really good
track record of being there um if we are
able to see a continuation and then
which I look I have Big Dreams here I
would love to see by the I would love to
see and I think it's pop possible this
is a big big ask here a big ask to see a
continuation of this bull move not only
into next year but maybe even beyond
that into
2026 I believe it has the possibility to
happen again we will pivot when needed
to Pivot uh you saw us looking recently
if there's any warning signs on the
NASDAQ we still have that to consider
and watch uh let me jump back over here
and ultimately
we're talking about this channel we're
in I hope we don't break out sharply to
the
upside like
this like I hope that we don't break the
current Trend we're
in because why we're going to see likely
higher prices uh quicker if we do I
don't know if the extent of the move
will will last as long let me give you a
little taste of what I'm talking about
and then let me just come back over here
here and um let's look at
this and I this is just for me saying
look ideally in a dream it could happen
I would love for it to happen I don't
know it's going to happen but I'm just
for illustration purposes just simply
taking this period over here and I'm
doing a a bar pattern copy of it and I'm
extending it out right and I and I think
that there's no question that some of us
could could really visualize even in to
the end of uh or the end of the first
quarter
2025 Bitcoin trading above
$150,000 I I think that you know we're
consolidating here make a leg up that
would be beautiful but I'm just showing
you what that might look like into the
end of
2025 and yeah I think that a lot of
people uh could look at Bitcoin 220,000
and be like by the end of next year I I
could see that happening I could see
that and and all of that if this is
happening within this same channel would
be super bullish for me from my
perspective and this is also by the way
what it should look like as we enter the
ultimate Market opportunity when I talk
there's still draw Downs plenty of them
look there there we've we just had a 30%
draw down we've had multiple 20% draw
Downs would not be surpris that should
continue and then if we were able to see
into the end of
2026 a similar current now that's
dependent on a lot of factors one of
them is actually nation states joining
the bid I I believe this is all the
premise of this is all on continued
adoption in the s-curve it's how
s-curves work and this is the way that I
I really I would give the highest
probability to something like unfolding
now let's first get past you know this
next year that we're entering let's
watch for technical
breakdowns and let's continue to to go
ahead and monitor the situation I'll
say now right now we're seeing
a well we're not seeing a draw down on
bitcoin at all right Bitcoin is looking
super healthy Bitcoin here uh off of the
line that I I thought thought was and it
could change today's the fomc meeting uh
we could see depending on what happens a
reaction from the market I didn't think
when we were in October that we'd break
this red line over here I was that that
was my highest end basically Target for
December and I think earlier than than I
anticipated we've broken above it not by
much I was saying the end of December
this is December 16th not a big deal
right pretty good from far away and
looks super healthy continues to look
healthy um we're
consolidating again as long as we're
above this line I'm highlighting all of
this consolidation is super super
healthy if we were to break that
nothing's change at that point then we
would expect lower prices and maybe a
little longer to recover nothing has
changed
whatsoever um and Bitcoin here uh coming
off right like o 4% 5% my strategy
actually came off a little bit and you
could see that micro strategy has come
off with what is a normal draw down for
micro strategy and you can see coming
off 38% and why Bitcoin has had multiple
20% draw downs and a 30% draw down
during that 30% draw down over here
Microsoft pulled back 50% seems very
reasonable that the draw down is greater
on micro strategy than Bitcoin as it is
a Leverage play on bitcoin and then we
had obviously those 20% draw downs and
Microsoft pulling off 36% during them
over here we had another 22% draw down
and Microsoft pulled off 38% again so it
is it is weird uh this Friday is the
listing for micro strategy into the
NASDAQ 100 now a lot of people I know
are have a lot of money in micro
strategy that a lot of people that I
know have a lot of money in micro
strategy so we're just going to talk
about micro strategy here and without
any emotion we're just taking a look at
at the market everyone understands the
the bullish case from micro strategy
there's some people out there who have
concerns that like doesn't feel right I
wonder if something's going to happen
and I don't know that any of us would be
able to be ahead of it when it did a lot
of people think that even if it does
unwind that probably not happening for a
long time and if we see something like
for sure something like ah US starts
taking a Bitcoin position Japan follows
Brazil's on board Russia joins the
fry and then we're hearing more and more
countries talking about it EU Germany
Germany's part of the EU but maybe they
won't be in the F who know so you you
you get the point though is that then
like maybe this goes on for a lot longer
than people expect maybe Michael Sor MIT
graduate is the greatest Financial
engineer in the world and maybe is it is
it the infinite money glitch you know
who knows I don't know and you don't
know and if you have money invested it
then this is just really important to to
look at and talk about so is it weird
that micro strategy just came off 38% as
Bitcoin came off a few percent maybe
maybe not I I really don't know at other
times Bitcoin has kind of peaked first
like over here Bitcoin Peaks here and
then micro strategy makes a higher high
and at other times it's different where
uh micro strategy Peaks first and then
Bitcoin Peaks days after so I I have no
idea honestly um I'm going to bring up
something that I I just want to bring to
your attention and and some people might
not like like it and look again there's
no motion involved here we're just
trying try to protect ourselves at all
points likely again the thought is the
thought from those that really Embrace
micro strategy either that he's found
the infinite money glitch and by the way
it's spreading and this is I think has a
lot to do with with uh saor and by the
way you saw another
$493 million of inflows into Bitcoin
yesterday just from the ETFs alone this
is big money that continues to bid above
a 100,000 B Bitcoin you see over here
that now there are 20 public companies
huddling over 1,000 Bitcoin and we
continue to see a lot of these companies
using the Sor Playbook whether it's
metap Planet whether it's Marathon Riot
and they are raising money in the public
markets to buy Bitcoin with and I think
that Michael has had that effect on
people and here we go right there should
be at
generally what happens when a company's
included in the S&P 500 there's the S&P
500 effect I know we're talking here
about the NASDAQ 100 but same premise
likely applies that there is a lot of
buying that buying usually causes price
then to to go up and then shortly after
whether it's days or weeks it usually
then reverts back to where it is it's
just called the S&P phenomenon and it
makes sense as a lot of is and and funds
are rebalanced to include the new
inclusion uh and this new money that's
coming into micro strategy I I believe
the the idea is that it's going to be
used then to raise more money and buy
more Bitcoin that's likely what happens
I know a lot of people right now who uh
are seeing you know that's not a small
number to see price come off
38% and as it came off 38% most most
people I know that that are invested are
simply like listen it's okay I'll ride
it out whatever it happens I believe
bitcoin's going higher and I believe
micro strategy is going higher and you
know what like the volatility is part of
the game and for some people it might be
their first rodeo is so much as like
their first draw down but a lot of
people that have been invested in micro
strategy have already been through 50%
draw down right so now they're like
Bitcoin is a little bit of battle tested
like if you've been through two three
Cycles in Bitcoin like literally you're
never happy about a large draw down but
you do become really really
detached um and that likely plays effect
at what happens here
into uh micro strategy uh and a lot of
people do believe that like regardless
of what happens it's okay it's going to
come back this is concerning this is
like uh a a warning this is like if you
are emotionally
unstable stop the stream here I'm not
trying to ruin anyone's day I'm not
trying to be an alarmist and I'm just
talking about things that are happening
in the world and related to what we do
really it's no big deal like and if it's
a big deal to you then just okay skip
this one it's all good and I saw this
tweet today and it stood out to me I
wanted to share it with you and the
reason why it's it's from Mark I I can't
pronounce his last name Cotes I remember
I originally saw him with his farm in in
in Northern California and all his
chickens uh and uh on a real Vision
interview in 200 and in 21 and he's a
famous famous short seller a famous
short seller and um he's got a long and
a good track record and I remember mark
I remember Mark ahead of the FTX blowout
calling it ahead and this is the first
tweet I found where he mentioned Sam by
name and it's July the summer of
2022 and then from then until the
blowout there are more and more and a
lot of Mark saying this is not right
this is fraud and other people were
not right and we always talk about wait
people have a track record of getting it
right consult them as a point of view
you don't have to not everyone has a
perfect track
record and this is in October before the
blow up lots of lots coming in that fake
s uh FTX let's see what happens next
dude set up a chat Raul with me and Sam
it would be great um and sure enough he
was on the right side of that and so
when he said like whoa what's what's
going on here why is he calling Michael
a fraudster and I get like look I'm I'm
with you I know I know the respect that
bitcoiners have for Michael so we're
we're just talking about things we're
not emotional about it all right
and so and we're GNA that so he says
he's a fraudster and well what's he
talking about and I mean
obviously some people might be of you
know like in 2000 sailor was charged by
the SEC with forly reporting M
strategies Financial results for two
years they reached the settlement you
could see they had to pay uh Wall Street
Journal 11 million dollar uh to the SEC
and yeah I mean that happened but but
guess what people make mistakes and then
people amend their lives so like that's
for sure and maybe a mistake was I don't
know the particulars of what happened
and and you know either which way I
think that's why he's calling him a
fraud St
and I don't believe always a frauder I
believe he could definitely definitely
change his ways in this audio here
Michael is saying that uh this this this
guy Sid is saying he's re misr misre
representing the nature of the debt risk
to micro strategy because remember he
like let's listen to his own words it's
it's important and this is just so we
have our own knowledge right that we're
not trying to say that Michael is bad
we're not saying Michael's a fraud we're
not saying Michael's a hero we're not
saying he's found the infinite money
glitch we're just looking at a
developing story so that anyone and I
know a lot of people who have a lot of
money invested in micro strategy are
able then to continue to navigate their
position that's all zero zero fud zero
zero uh like we're not trying to Hype
anything people think it's people think
it's debt it's convertible debt it's
unsecured no recourse no rec means Ron
is so it's it's unsecured debt he's
saying there's no recourse this is a
interview I it sounds like Crypt banter
maybe someone else could help me I'm not
sure but this is a recent interview and
he's saying specific people think it's
people think it's debt it's convertible
debt it's unsecured no recourse no
recourse it's convertible debt you know
and that that's not true this is coming
from uh you know form 10 Q micro
strategy uh SEC and if you go to line
five it says the date of holder put
option represents the respective dates
upon which holders of the 2028
convertiable notes uh
2031
2032 each have a non-contingent right to
require the company to repurchase for
cash all or any portion of their
respective notes at a repurchase price
equal to 100% of the principal
amount and if you go forward over here
and you look you see look um the bonds
are redeemable for cash or the stated
number of shares but in his example in
Michael's example he's saying let's
finish listening to Michael and then
we'll come back and then we'll finish
the rest but let's hear what Michael
says what that means Ron is that is that
Bitcoin could go from $100,000 to
$11,000 the debts not getting called
there there is no recourse Bitcoin can
go to $1 you see Bitcoin can literally
go to one penny the debt doesn't have
there's no call feature and so it's so
now now first he said there's no first
he said that it's not debt and there's
no recourse and now he saying there's no
call
feature maybe he
doesn't uh maybe he doesn't understand I
or or maybe he's like the a lot of
people think that he has like will be
known for future Generations as the most
Advanced Financial AR architect that
ever was either one of those things
could be true I I have I have no idea
what happens either one of those things
could be true I suppose it's like
basically someone loans you billions of
dollars and you agree that in five years
you will either pay them back and cash
or in stock but you know what what
happened is if Bitcoin crashed by 75%
the stock would trade down we would just
pay off the debt with stock so the risk
isn't in the debt so much as it's in the
equity well so this is a little better
now he's saying like listen worst case
scenario likely we just have to pay in
stock or we have to pay but you have to
pay he he's saying there's no recourse
there's there's actual real Rec course
so maybe just maybe he wasn't clear I
think in the I think in the coming days
or weeks he'll probably clarify this and
then we could just all move on but until
it's clarified I think that it's
probably important to be you know just
talking about it uh so but he it's not
just stock because that footnote that we
just looked at over here footnote 5 it
does say cash right foot no5 and and it
says for cash company to repurchase for
cash all or any portion so again it's
not just stock it could be cash and he
says um somehow he's saying the exact
opposite which I agree that it feels
like a material
misrepresentation points the foot and 05
and says you're right for all the recent
issuances as we looked at the ones that
are due from
2028 through
2032 so listen that's it and that's all
there's no opinion here uh we're just
pointing out facts in case anyone who
was not paying attention that has a lot
of money invested in micro strategy
because I know a lot of people that have
a lot of money invested in micro
strategy and I think most people think
and I certainly hope so that what
happens next is that Bitcoin continues
to go higher maybe even nation states
begin to start taking POS positions
putting in a flaw and don't forget why
things are going up they're like there's
a saying that like you find out who's
not wearing shorts When the tide goes
out but while the tide is rising a lot
more you get away with a lot more which
is why some people think Hey listen each
and every raise puts micro strategy in a
weaker position but likely there's a
long time before this unwinds badly for
them and and that's probably the case
and I imagine that's the case but we
just don't know and we're just having a
healthy
conversation most people think that what
happens next is that uh we see an inflow
into micro strategy share price and then
that giving the ability for saor to
continue to raise new money and will
continue banging out the bid on bitcoin
that's the base case I think for most
and then the second base case is that
even if micro strategy trades off
further and for longer they're just
going to ride the rodeo just going to
ride the
rodeo I got merry by the way thank you
so much on Thursday I hopefully I have
the presence about me to really just um
as we're together wish you all uh and
your families and everyone that you uh
touch in your life really really really
full Every Blessing Every
Blessing um
well it doesn't matter so they don't
have to wait for
expiry uh that basically he said there's
no call and that that could be C that on
the new issuances it could be called at
any time so I I mean look I I don't
think it I don't it's a misre
misrepresentation of what it is it
doesn't mean that that was done
willfully he might just be confused
about the products offering and selling
or the or or some or someone else is
confused who knows like I I I don't have
the answer and that's it we're just
taking a look at
it uh just to clarify over here so we're
on the same page and go back to footnote
5 and it
says bum bum
um I don't it doesn't say where Michelle
your eyes on this as well uh notes have
a non-contingent right to require the
company to repurchase for cash or any of
the portion of their respected notes at
a repurchase price equal to 100% of such
notes to be repurchased plus any accured
unpaid interest but excluding the
repurchase date I don't see here what
we're looking at where it says in the
table
umm looking at the dates convertible at
any time after the following
date okay so we have it says after the
following
date so that's before they mature they
are convertible not
redeemable to by the company prior to
the following date
so I'm not
sure the breakdown line for which for
micro
strategy o so let's get
exact I didn't mean to the date of
holder put
option so this is but this is before
right Michelle you you tell me
right so conver
2028 anytime after September
2027 this one is 2030 anytime after
September 2028 this one is 2031 anytime
after September
2028 so not
immediately but there is a window here
before the expiration where it becomes
uh where where it does actually
become um redeemable
I mean I guess one of my potential
worries is
that the more companies that begin to
actually raise money and purchase
Bitcoin does that dilute micro
strategies nav and therefore the the the
the the stock price it I think so I
don't know
these are just potential risks that
we're talking I want to take a look at
this really quick right now and Ace
wanted to take a look at the breakdown
line and it seems that we're well above
it right
now I'm so sorry we got an emergency
just give me give me 15 seconds
and we're back so we we wanted to look
at what it was for a potential breakdown
and so this would be
definitely and we're holding support
right now a sign of a breakdown uh I
don't know the structure here I don't
know if this is structure I should say
and I'm just kind of going off the lows
over here so you have this low this low
pierced here but we had the lower
support and pierced here so this one
would be like a early warning sign this
would be the this would be a a cell
impulse if this was to happen that would
suggest that likely we're to see a
further pullback now as soon as you have
that trigger what you do is look for
then the repair which would be this and
we would we would have this line up over
here once that were to happen and we
would say okay now we're looking for a
repair which means that you could have
something very like a breakdown and then
it's just a a liquidity grab and then
you shoot upwards that could easily
happen or you could have a breakdown and
it could be some time before you take
out that that repair so I think that's a
good place to be looking Ace uh good
awareness and it's just coiling here
getting ready to break out either which
way and maybe that's dependent on on
what happens with Bitcoin maybe it's
depending on what type of flows come
in um yeah there's a lot of speculation
out there it seems to me that lately
there's been a
this is just my my my view of someone
not following closely so take it for
what it's worth it seems that Michael
has been a little bit of like fooing and
maybe he believes that the US is about
to take a position in Bitcoin and he's
trying to get as much Bitcoin as
possible before that happens that makes
a lot of sense that that could be it um
it seems like that's happening uh or has
he seen the price of micro strategy go
up the price of Bitcoin go up as he went
from a position of being underwater
throughout
2022 uh and into the beginning of
2023 maybe he's feeling a little bit of
the you know there's a reason why you
know the the the meme stay humble in
stack acts and you know a lot a lot of
people are making the observation that
in recent interviews he seems very
red-faced and animated and
I don't know I I mean it seems to me if
if we do see a Bitcoin Reserve
announcement or position by the US a big
position out of an executive order that
that would likely uh be very bullish for
Bitcoin and micro
strategy all right so I hope that we
didn't ruffle any feathers that was not
trying to ruffle any feathers whatso and
we're just making notes here and and
we're just pointing to someone markk who
who legitimately has a history of
spotting things that are not right and
calling them out ahead of time we don't
know that Mark is right either I'm sure
he's gotten some calls wrong he has
gotten a lot right and that's
all that's
all
that's right I mean maybe but that's
this is his plan though his Michael said
a long time ago and it's true like I'm
always going to be buying the all-time
high and the local high that's that's
their plan he did say that I don't know
like he talked about how they make money
when the price is coming down and anyway
that's enough for for us today and I
think that's fun because I wanted to
talk about also a little bit of of the
all coins and take a look at what's
going on if you remember recently we did
uh an allcoin video and we were talking
about how uh the top 50 and how they
were performing versus Bitcoin in the
last 90 days and let's go ahead and just
revisit this since
October and you could see that most
everything here in the top 50 at this
particular point in time is
outperforming Bitcoin and then when you
get to the top 12 or 15 they're
outperforming Bitcoin by a large margin
H bar right that's is that going to be
the next
ETF I I've heard talk that there's a
strong chance that the next ETF spot ETF
will be har bar uh being a well I I
don't want to get into the who knows
what the SEC but maybe that's why it's
pumping right now not
sure
o thank you guys just trying to as we do
put a unique and different spin on all
of this trying to keep ourselves on the
right side I looked at also the alt
since
2021 at in January
20121 these were the top 50
alts uh and you could see and I think
this is
important since that time look at
Dogecoin how amazing that Dogecoin
continues to outperform bitcoin inanity
and we've talked about super super sound
money and how it's kind of irrelevant
when you factor in Dogecoin which has an
inflation rate of almost 4% 3.8% a year
um nevertheless maybe Dogecoin becomes
the next Bitcoin everyone this is why
alt started in the first place when alt
speculation first began people were
genuinely looking for what was going to
be the next Bitcoin today I don't think
people are trying to replace or even
think it's possible to replace Bitcoin
now there are a lot of altcoin projects
out there that are nothing but vapor and
there are a lot out there that are
looking to solve real world problems
with really Innovative technology and
anyone that has any place of a real
world use case obviously there's a place
for it in this digital age that we're in
maybe Dogecoin is the only it's the only
one I know of that potentially could
become or replace
Bitcoin you guys are going to blow your
minds but we're not getting into that or
or talk I I I heard a video I never
found it before I heard an interview
with Elon and Elon believes that when
his technology is Advanced enough which
it's not now but figure maybe like at
some point in the future star Link's
capacity is like lightning like
literally speed of sound downloads and
uploads and then and I'm just talking
figuratively here that's obviously not
going to happen but highly Advanced
compared to what it is now he believes
that he could build a better Bitcoin I
heard him say it and if he were to do
that just because the funniest outcome
is the most likely I bet you he would do
that on Doge that's that's my own
complete conjure and
speculation and who knows now obviously
you all know my feelings on bitcoin so
uh I could say that I could speak
freely it wasn't
a so Litecoin right so where is Litecoin
Litecoin was in the top 50 at that
particular juncture and it's nowhere to
be found hold on let me come back to
2021 let's try this
trying to get a point here where a lot
of these coins were outperforming
Bitcoin by a lot I'm looking for
Litecoin to pop up on our screen but
it's not and you say well that's because
Litecoin was so
200 and and 17 and I would say oh maybe
it's not in the top 50 so I found a
place over here where most of these
coins in the top 50 from
2021 are outperforming Bitcoin and
here's the
thing here's the
thing the top 50 that we look at today
when you fast forward three
years how many of them do you think are
going to be outperforming Bitcoin three
years from now so let me just zoom in
again take a look at
2021 till
today don't worry we're going to get
into xrp and we'll get into l
just setting the
stage so there there we
are as of 20121 from those top 50 there
are there are one two three four five
six seven eight nine nine coins that are
outperforming Bitcoin and doge is
obliterating it obliterating it uh as
well as
B&B xrp is above it look at that I mean
ethereum classic weird if you ask me
cardano weird but cardano and Bitcoin
are basically even from that point that
we're looking at they're they're
basically
even uh so you could say well that's not
bad eight out of the 50 are
outperforming and and two of them buy a
really strong margin right two like Doge
and B&B so what happens if you were to
take like for example of the top 50 alt
coins today
and you were to take a a position let's
say you were to take let's say you had
$50,000 and you put a $1,000 into each
one of them maybe three years from now
or four three four years from now maybe
one or two of them have had such a
return to make up for all the rest
regardless of what happens and then you
have a few outperforming and it and it
would you know think of it like a
venture capitalist how they invest in
startups and they expect that 90 3% of
these startups are going to fail and
that from the other 7% they'll be able
to make up that loss plus more now here
you have a bit of an advantage is that
you're actually focusing in on out of 10
20,000 all coins you're focused in on
the top 50 the top 50 by market cap so
that that's an advantage as far as you
know maybe which one is going to have
staying power but and then there's also
the thought out there we're were talking
about yesterday uh Charles the founder
of of cardano he believes over the next
12 to 18 months that the price of
Bitcoin is going to rise substantially
and that the the smart contracts on
bitcoin are going to eat all of defi I
mean that's his that's Charles Hopkins
that's what he said we looked at that
together I have the video when if anyone
wants to hear it at any time pulled up
over here um let's see if I get to the
right time stamp
the revelation of this and after
reviewing the technology realizing that
actually has a path to work
reinvigorated my love of the ecosystem
because Bitcoin went from a sleeping
giant never to awaken in a Innovation
coma to an awakened giant that is four
times the size of salana and ethereum
combined reality is that should these
floodgates open it is my belief that
defi in the Bitcoin ecosystem will
Eclipse defi in all ecosystems
in the cryptocurrency industry within 24
months okay so I got a couple of things
wrong that was pretty good though right
I just went to that video and I found
the exact spot that wasn't that wasn't
queued up over there that was pretty
good uh but he said should he didn't say
will he said it should and he didn't say
12 to 18 months he said 24 months so I'm
I'm I just want Clarity and I think we
all do that all the time is we hear
things and we and we're sure we got it
right but we don't and I think that
that's important to know so but very
bullish remarks I want to look from this
period over here of January 2024 and I
just wanted to just get a read on what
was happening there as well because we
just looked at who was outperforming
Bitcoin doge is still destroying Bitcoin
B&B is still destroying Bitcoin but
notice that only
okb is like like TRX and and Etc how is
ethereum classic doing so well I don't
know but they they have the same
return so
interesting so I think that's super
interesting all of that I hope you do
too let's move over and let's talk about
what's happening here with um xrp
Litecoin and obviously xrpa people say
well it's not really moving well it's
moving now it just had this massive
massive massive pump and so far so far
is is consolidating that pump pretty
well let's zoom out a little bit let's
get the bigger look over here I remember
xrp when it came out of nowhere and by
so many of my friends were invested in
this thing so many of my friends that
were not even prior into Bitcoin and
crypto like
like they for whatever reason they were
buying xrp and they were buying it
around 50 cents 30 30 to 50 cents and
then they saw it in I remember that
December just completely shoot up like
crazy none of them took profits up there
but that that's a bit that I thought
that was an an amazing move we just kind
of did close to that 400% up I guess
from the all from the high there to that
Peak
and look at that and then it was dead in
the water for a long time and if you
remember because I remember very clearly
uh in this area right over here in this
area right over here warning people that
listen
uh you know this is not going to be good
as the SEC uh begins their lawsuit and
then after the lawsuit I said if you're
if you're want to speculate this might
be a good time or it might be anyway
whenever that happened it might have
been over here uh but you all remember
who are here and a lot of you have been
here the whole time uh but now that's
all behind them and as Bitcoin here and
the bull the rising tide that lifts all
bullets is running all of a sudden xrp
is back in the
picture
um I've never been a fan of xrp it's one
of the few
assets that within ctm we're not able to
really find a solution for it's it's
very difficult and it's the nature of
these large Shar moves right I call it
it rips and then ripo the company
distributes into the rips you know is
that what happened up here or is this
normal price uh Behavior I don't know
um it's I I I know so many people who
continue to be really really bullish on
the future of xrp some people have
really high expectations other people uh
right now are riding a good trade they
held out uh and it's not only recovered
it seems to be going well look all I can
say is there are lots of options out
there for example right now you have
like a lot of those within ctm are are
focused in on basket if you look at
these right let me go to log you see the
the the nature left to the right left
and to the
right hopefully up and to the right
right but nice moves here like offers
plenty of opportunity that we're able
not like the nature of Ripple these are
moves that we're able to actually get
into and profit off of on both sides
obviously Bitcoin right up and to the
right
you have polygon a lot like the nature
of of of madic that we just looked at of
uh AVX that we just looked at and but
again tradable unlike Bitcoin cardano on
both sides gives us Ample Ample healthy
gains and then for fun even like
throwing in now some some mean coins but
things that are tradable that have a
high probability and of course that's
because the nature of the way that we
approach the markets from a mechanical
way offering us the opportunity speaking
of which though let me just check in
really quick and mention that like BTC
108 took profits as well as did ctm 2.0
both of them exiting that last trade out
of the market just a small gain a nice
gain 3% the average trade uh is 1.89 the
average winning trade though let's see
what the average on 108 is so average
winning trade is
6.9% so it wasn't
even I don't know when this is going
back to not too far see if that changes
from 2020 that's good it's like let's
look just from 2021 let's look at recent
price Behavior we'll see what the
average trades are so the average
winning trade is
6.5% this trade was a little under the
average winning trade that's
all jumping back and and when we talk
about things like
xrp it it has these long
consolidations and then sharp moves that
we're not able to get
in for us it's not something that we've
really yet been able to take advantage
of and um that's it I don't know what
the future holds for xrp I think that I
want to check with you together while
we're doing this
[Music]
So speaking of the
Tilt I just want to see the the the
total Supply Max Supply is 100
billion uh total Supply is is at the 100
billion oh no circulating Supply is only
57 billion so half of that supply and I
I don't know if this is correct but I
imagine it is how how much of of the
supply does the company Ripple own I I
imagine it's very very very large let's
find
out there it is the other we just said
that you know there it is the rest of
the supply uh that is a lot
and that's a lot that's my
concern I it's their business model to
sell xrp in the open market to fund
their company they own a lot of that
supply and that I just don't like the
Dynamics the tokenomics if you will and
I don't think it's favorable so it's not
something that I'm interested in if
you're interested in it and you're
holding it and you're holding this long
I'm so glad that it's come back towards
an all-time high and in this next ball
Market uh if Bitcoin continues to be the
rising tide it should lift all boats I
would just be weary about that what
about
Litecoin Litecoin also is is just one of
the few that really has not been
attractive and and the solutions that we
that we key off are so ridiculously
attractive that although I'm sure we
could come up with a strategy solution
you know just overlaying our our our
strategies on on Litecoin that could
produce returns that like without
perform the the best money
managers uh from 2020 to the present or
2017 to present and easily or from 2021
to present however it's just not
something that fits our I remember the
use case for Litecoin or the the the the
meme for Litecoin in the past
was um you know what it's it's silver to
gold I don't hear that anymore it's
obviously not uh there's a lot more
exciting things out there I then heard
that well it's the test net for Bitcoin
as as are all all coins like at least
from the the point of view of of a
bitcoiner is that look the all the
altcoins are out there and they're kind
of like experimenting and then
ultimately anything that's built on an
altcoin could be incorporated into
Bitcoin if we want to and whe whether
you agree with that or not the founder
of cardano was just saying that he was
literally just saying that Bitcoin was a
sleeping giant and now all of sing The
Innovation on the chain is waking up and
he think it's he thinks that there's a
good chance within the next two years it
eclipses all of defi so there's that
right and so I don't know really the the
use case for Litecoin it used to be for
for faster cheaper payments but now you
have like Tron for that so uh I don't
really know or
see the thing or the or the or the
bullish case for Litecoin
now maybe at one point or another uh a
privacy layer is introduced on Litecoin
and becomes a privacy coin that might
increase its use case I suppose I I
think the founder sold out completely I
forget though I don't know if that's
true or not uh but the founder of Doge
did as well as far as we know and that
hasn't affected
it um how what's the relationship
between Litecoin and
Doge
and the reason I ask is because if if 10
years from now Doge becomes the the you
know the next Bitcoin they're M
together I look I just look I hope that
you're if you're invested here uh a lot
of people that I know for the past four
years have had really high expectations
of Litecoin they have not come to
fruition if you look at a lot of like
the the the permeables on bitcoin uh a
lot of them have all really embraced
Litecoin and they all have had enormous
expectations not one of them has ever
come to fruition uh it looks here that
you can make the case that well are we
are we consolidating I guess do have a
warning line I can't I can't draw a
trend line like that that would work so
I don't see it I wonder
see there's a that's a pretty good trend
line and you can say well we Wick down
below here and I would say well that's
true but that's how I would do
it and it's not clean but it's true and
I I would say well we we've we made a
repair
here
and that repair is kind of still in play
we've never taken out the low this is
the trend line that I would look right
here
it should be like
this so if you know my chicken scratch
you know what I'm doing and why and
that's all and if you don't you're
learning that's all I could say
so this is this was this was bad
right this is uh a buy impulse that's in
effect it's still holding if we break
this line I would be very
concerned that's the best I could get on
on Litecoin uh from obviously zoomed out
here perspective I'm not trying to like
obviously if you were looking to get the
last impulse that occurred you'd be
looking at
like something like that and that right
there at 64 with the bot and it's very
easy uh but you all get the point want
to look at
fet oo artificial intelligence
Alliance look at this thing
since since the
2023 bull market breakout right and it's
hard here with this big wick over here
uh obviously hindsight but you all know
how these things work and you can see
this is stopped out right this is
stopped out horizontally but like this
is the way to do it so you're stopped
out right here when you're slapped out
right no big deal small loss dink D Dink
and then you're riding in here again
that's the breakout massive breakout
you've had really crazy moves nice
consolidation you know very easy to do
1.0 very good on alts that's a tough one
because the breakouts here and you can
see it rides all the way down never a
stop out though you like that would be
the stop loss this is late this is
always early I wonder if it's the same
angle no you could use a set angle there
is a set angle I don't know what it is
yet uh we don't have time for that one
day we will um refine that art uh and
then another sharp move and then another
beautiful consolidation
obviously and likely if you were
aggressive on
that I could see like someone taking
this entry getting stopped out taking
this entry it's the lowest risk reward
this seems like a lot of opportunity it
seems very very
tradable um it seems like a a really
good pair to be honed in on I don't know
what its market cap is
so it's number 40 it's in the top 50
it's looking at on
binance
24 uh hour volume 63 million which just
a little low it's not terrible um I
don't know if if people within ctm could
kind of be focused in that together uh
obviously clearly it looks like it's a
market cap that's growing you could see
over here is is this where you know
you're looking for the next breakdown to
occur like that's where You' be worried
if you're not into the position right
now it looks
aggressive but that would be a break and
again if you're stopped out on this if
this breaks to the upside you take this
if you're stopped out because it's an
aggressive angle I wouldn't be surprised
look at these angles are much more this
is an aggressive
one if you stopped out you again you're
you're managing your risk from a very
very very tight standpoint you're then
able to look for the next entry break
down over here then that would be
suggesting a a bigger correction is in
store
um all right we'll leave it at
that
everyone have a beautiful day I won't
see you tomorrow I won't see you on
Friday I won't see you to Monday I'm
gonna miss you I'm gonna miss you a lot
but I try I'm G to try to get that work
done on the dashboard and then we'll be
back at it Monday together enjoyed this
extended session today we'll continue at
it everyone have a beautiful beautiful
beautiful day God bless you and I'll see
you all soon