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大家好，欢迎回到艾森Essen的频道。
就在这几天，德国总理梅尔茨他有一个演讲，“美利坚治下的和平时代对于我们欧洲人来说已经结束了。”梅尔茨在演讲当中警告说，我们可能要过很多年以后，才能够完全理解欧洲此时此刻正在经历的这个事件的全部维度。
其实我一直也在琢磨一个事情，就是为什么曾经文明优雅的欧洲如今会变得如此拉胯了呢？我想在回答这个问题之前，要请大家先看一样东西。
2014年在挪威的演习场，北约正在进行代号“贵族引领”的联合军演。德国联邦国防军第371装甲掷弹兵营，全欧洲最精锐的机械化部队，正驾驶着“拳击手”装甲车，轰鸣驶过。但是在现场的盟军军官们却傻了眼，因为在代表着德国工业巅峰的装甲车的车顶上，本来应该安装重机枪的位置，黑洞洞的这个枪管它不见了，取而代之的，是一根涂成了黑色的扫帚柄。是的，你没有听错，你也没有看错，德国最精锐的士兵他们被迫，把扫把插在装甲车上，假装这个是一挺机枪的枪管。
这和我当初知道英军只有25辆主战坦克能够打仗的新闻一样，就像是愚人节的玩笑，但很可惜是冷冰冰的现实。德国国防部后来解释说，这是一辆移动的指挥车，按规定不需要车载武器，插上一个扫把，只是为了给士兵提供某种心理安慰。而当时德意志这样一支先锋营的真实状况是，MG3通用机枪缺口31%，手枪缺口41%，夜视仪的缺口超过75%。
我们先姑且记住这样一根非常搞笑的扫把。当年对此事件负责的德国国防部长，并没有因为扫帚这样一种非常丢脸的事情而引咎辞职。恰恰相反，他一路高升，最终坐上了布鲁塞尔的这个权力的铁王座，成为了五亿欧洲人的女王，他就是乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩。
要理解欧洲的衰败，我觉得可以从这位女王开始着手，作为剖析的切入点。很多人把冯德莱恩看作是德国人，这个其实是存在一定的误区。她在斯坦福大学度过了世界观成型的四年，孩子全部都出生在美国。从成长环境到精神归属，冯德莱恩其实是一个非常天然的大西洋主义者，你甚至可以认为她其实就是出生在布鲁塞尔的美国人，当然是打上引号的美国人。
2013年冯德莱恩他接管了德国的国防部，扫帚事件其实只是一个表象，要真正深入他的内核，我们要了解他引入的一个全新的管理模式——咨询公司治国。
早在1941年，詹姆斯·伯恩汉就通过《管理革命》这本书发出过警告，由福特或者是洛克菲勒他们这样一种创始人亲自掌舵，与企业命运深度绑定的旧的资本主义的时代正在终结。而夺走公司权杖的是一个新的阶层——经理人阶级。那这样一群人，他们并不拥有企业，但是却凭借着对于技术流程、行政层级跟组织话术的垄断，可以成功的架空所有者。他们只对财务报表负责，不对业务结果负责。
这样一种代理人篡位，在商业领域或许还可以理解，但是如果他以最病态的形式，蔓延到如今的欧洲政坛的时候，灾难便发生了。传统的政治家，比如说戴高乐，他们往往拥有深层的历史的使命感，他们对于国家的命运怀有一种近乎所有权般的情怀跟责任感。在这一点上，甚至连中国古代的皇帝都比某些现代的政客更具有股东思维。
但是今天欧美这样一群管理精英，他们完全不同，他们很多人缺乏基层治理的泥土气，甚至完全缺乏了一个真实的职业历练，比如说特鲁多，加拿大的小土豆，他从政以前仅仅只是一个中学老师。这样一群人他们没有脊梁，只有学历人脉跟操弄官僚机构的技巧，他们没有什么愿景，只有对于流程、KPI、合规性检查和PPT的迷信。
这样一种咨询治国模式，本质上其实是一个国家主权的隐形的转移。国家从人民跟政治家手中滑落到了技术官僚的手中。所以我们看到一个国家的国防战略、能源政策，甚至于应对大流行病的方案，所有这些全部外包给，比如说麦肯锡、埃森哲，或者是波士顿咨询公司的时候，会产生两个非常致命的反应。
首先，如果你长期依赖外部大脑的话，政府内部培养专家的机制就会被破坏掉了。那专业能力会萎缩，欧洲的公务员体系就是这样，遇到俄乌冲突啊、能源危机，这些突发状况的时候，政府就会发现自己除了签合同付咨询费之外，根本就没有独立判断局势的能力。
其次的话，如果决策导致了灾难，那这些欧洲政坛的这些精英就会两手一摊说，“那这个是麦肯锡他们经过非常复杂的模型计算之后给的建议，所有的流程都合规。”那通过引入咨询公司，这些政治精英他们可以成功的甩锅，把决策权跟责任做一个切割，而对于糟糕的决策，从此以后也没有什么心理负担了。
这也是为什么我们会看到在军演的现场，这样一根非常显眼的扫把。因为只要采购流程是合规的，只要PPT上面的这个战备率是绿色的，士兵手里是不是有真枪？真的没那么重要，这只是一个执行层面上的细节。
冯德莱恩上任之后的第一件事情，不是去基层视察部队，不是去检修装备，而是搞了人事改革。2014年，他做出了德国历史上前所未有的一个人事任命，他让麦肯锡的一个资深合伙人，卡特琳·苏德，担任国防部的国务秘书，直接主管数十亿欧元的装备采购大权。这是第一次在欧洲历史上，有咨询公司的高管直接坐到了国家暴力机器的驾驶座上。
纽约时报后来在一篇文章当中披露说，一位麦肯锡的高管在私下里聚会当中得意忘形。他说，“卡特琳被安置在了一个随时可以跟麦肯锡派活的这个位置上。”而事实也的确如此。这位苏德上任之后，他迅速切断了德国军方与传统军工企业的直接联系，理由是为了要打破旧的利益集团。但是他建的一个新网络是什么呢？是一个由各路咨询顾问组成的一个裙带网络。
冯德莱恩任期内，德国国防部的这个咨询的支出呈爆炸式的增长。仅仅2019年上半年，国防部花在外部咨询上的这个钱就高达1.55亿欧元，而从2014到2018年间，整个德国政府在外部顾问上的支出超过了12亿欧元，成了咨询公司的销金窟。
如果花了这些钱，真的换来了实打实的战斗力，我想大家也没有什么话说。但结果呢？德国联邦审计局他们发布的这个报告指出，国防部的大多数的咨询合同根本就没有经过公开招标，也没有进行必要的需求论证。
来看一看实际的案例，戈尔希·福克号的修缮丑闻。这是一艘德意志海军的风帆训练舰，也是德国海军传统的一个象征。2015年11月，这艘帆船进场维修，最初的计划是预算960万欧元，工期17周。但是当咨询治国的这个逻辑介入以后，修缮的清单开始像滚雪球一样膨胀起来。2016年，预算涨到了6450万欧元，而到了2018年，整个预算是完全失控，直接飙升到了1.35亿欧元。
我们来做一个简单的横向对比，同期，秘鲁海军向西班牙采购了一艘全新的，比德国这艘风帆训练舰更大的船，总花费也不到6000万欧元。德国人，他们花了足以造两艘全新大船的钱去修这样一艘旧帆船。
在事情闹大以后，德国联邦议院，他们成立了专门的调查委员会来追查这件事情。调查委员会要求检查冯德莱恩的工作手机，来查找他跟咨询公司高管之间的短信往来。但就在手机应该要上交的前几天，国防部的技术人员他们接到指令，对于冯德莱恩的两部工作手机进行了彻底的安全清洗，理由是安全更新跟防止数据泄露。结果就是当这个手机交到调查人员手中的时候，已经变成了两块干净的砖头，所有的短信、通话记录、邮件全部被永久性的删除，没有办法做恢复。
那如果是你跟我在被警方调查的时候，删除了自己的手机，或者是砸烂了自己的手机，那这个行为叫做毁灭证据，这个是要坐牢的。一个国家的国防部长在面对议会调查的时候，销毁了所有的通讯记录，在任何一个正常的法治国家，这都叫做妨碍司法公正。但是当冯德莱恩这么做的时候，这个叫做安全审查的失误。而且既然死无对证了，那么对付随后的听证会，对于他来说就驾轻就熟了。
冯德莱恩展示了他作为顶级的职场精英的一个生存智慧，只用三板斧就轻松过关了。第一步是承认错误，“是的，我们在程序上的确是犯了错。”第二步，否认责任，“但我个人并不知情，都是下属执行层面的问题。”第三步，看着议员们的眼睛，面不改色的说，“重要的决定不是通过短信做出的。”
就在事件即将触及核心的时候，冯德莱恩却被及时的送走了，调查没有了下文。这个不仅仅是对于议会调查的嘲弄，更是对于民主社会的公开羞辱。从这一刻开始我们会看清了，咨询治国这样一种管理模式的本质，无论造成多大的烂摊子，处于顶层的这些管理者，他们永远可以是不粘锅。
所以在这样一种管理风格下，整个德国联邦国防军算是被彻底掏空了。109架“台风”战斗机只有42架能飞，89架“狂风”轰炸机只有38架可用，只有30%的坦克能够开得动，潜艇全部趴窝，士兵还在用1980年代的无线电，而大名鼎鼎的这个KSK特种部队，曾经因为没有可以用的直升机，而被迫要退出北约的一个高级别的演习，负责去阿富汗接回受伤士兵的运输机在半路坏掉了。而德国的国防部，他们竟然调不出一架备用的飞机。这样战备水平的德国军队，实质上已经被解除了武装。
按照常理来说，把一个国防部搞得一地鸡毛，这样的国防部官员理应引咎辞职才对。但在伯恩汉预言的这个管理社会里面，逻辑恰恰相反，管理精英他们拥有超人的技能——就是向上失败。你搞砸得多大都没所谓，只要你忠诚于某个特定的权力网络，你反而升得会越快。
2019年，留下身后满目疮痍的这个德国国防部之后，冯德莱恩他却华丽的转身，被空降成为了欧盟委员会的主席。他是马克龙跟默克尔在密室的晚餐当中交易的产物。这个大概是现代政治历史上最具有讽刺性的一幕，为了避免冯德莱恩在国内因为腐败的丑闻被起诉，法德两国的领导人决定给他一个更高的职位。我们的大女主也就带着在德国国防部练就的一身本领，形式主义、咨询依赖，以及销毁证据的绝活，大摇大摆地走进了布鲁塞尔。
再然后COVID-19来了，这场大流行为管理精英们提供了前所未有的扩大权力的机会，也就在这个时候爆发了著名的“辉瑞门”，这个或许是人类历史上最大规模的黑箱操作之一。这个丑闻涉及到欧盟历史上最大的单一采购合同，向辉瑞公司订购了18亿剂的新冠疫苗，这样一笔交易预估的价值高达350亿欧元，相当于爱沙尼亚整个国家一年的GDP。
按理说，这样一笔涉及到了全欧洲纳税人血汗钱的交易，应该会经过最严苛的公开招标、专家认证跟价格谈判。但事实却是，冯德莱恩他绕开了所有这些程序跟步骤，绕开了由成员国代表组成的一个联合谈判的团队，他拿起了手机，是的，又是拿起了手机，直接开始给辉瑞公司的CEO发短信。在长达一个多月的时间里面，这两个人就通过私人的短信，直接敲定了这样一笔价值350亿欧元的巨额的生意合同。没有会议纪要，没有谈判的录音，只有两个人的私聊。
所以当这样一笔巨额交易被曝光之后，外界还发现了一个让人震惊的细节，就是价格还涨了。金融时报根据后来泄露的文件发现，相比早期采购合同来说，这18亿剂新合同的单价从15.5欧元涨到了19.5欧元，涨幅超过25%，意味着欧洲的纳税人还要被迫额外支付72亿欧元。
当欧洲议会要求查阅这些决定价格的关键短信的时候，历史惊人的重演了。欧盟委员会给出的回复是“找不到了”，他们甚至还发明了一个非常荒谬的法律的理论。因为短信属于短寿命的文件，所以按规定不需要归档，所以这些价值350亿欧元的短信也就好像空气一样消失了。
这样一种非常傲慢的做法，激怒了很多人，但是直到2025年5月14号，欧盟普通法院做出历史性的判决，他裁定欧盟委员会拒绝公开短信的行为，违反了法律。法官在判词当中非常严厉的指出，“委员会甚至都没有尝试去冯德莱恩的手机上来查找这些信息”，这个构成了对于良好行政管理权的严重侵犯。欧洲监察员也直接判定这是行政失职。
但是那又怎么样呢？So what？有人需要为这个事件来负责吗？答案是没有。而且由于当时非常恐慌性的一个过度采购，欧盟各成员国，他们被迫销毁了至少2.15亿剂过期的辉瑞疫苗，经济损失超过40亿欧元。这是完完全全彻彻底底浪费掉的40亿欧元。可以想象一下，用这40亿欧元本来可以建多少学校，可以资助多少的科研项目。但是在欧洲，只是欧盟的管理精英，他们一次错误决策的损耗而已。
但这个还不是最肮脏的部分，让我们来看看巧合的艺术。就在冯德莱恩他忙着发短信买疫苗的时候，他的丈夫海科·冯德莱恩在2020年12月出任了美国生物技术公司的一个医学总监。这是一家专注于细胞跟基因疗法的公司，虽然不做疫苗，但处于同一个资本跟技术的生态圈以内。而且调查还发现，这家公司的意大利分公司还参与了获得欧盟复苏基金资助的项目。
所以我们看到老婆她掌管欧盟的钱袋子跟卫生的政策，而老公在高度相关的行业里面出任高管。这是巧合吗？或许是吧。但如果你真的相信这只是巧合，那你也太小看权力的游戏了。这样一种夫妻店的模式，如果放在任何一个第三世界国家，都会被西方媒体指责是典型的腐败。但是在布鲁塞尔，这个被称之为精英家庭的职业成就。
既然没啥后果，那就索性来个更大的。2025年3月，冯德莱恩他推出了雄心勃勃的2030年战备计划，那张口就要8000亿欧元。那这笔钱从哪来呢？在这个所有人都勒紧裤腰带过日子的时代啊，他想发行共同债券，也就是让所有的欧洲人一起来背这个债务。那这笔钱花去什么地方呢？鉴于欧洲军工产能的萎缩，那这样一笔巨款，最终大概率还是流向大西洋彼岸的洛克希德·马丁或者是雷神公司。
这就是所谓的军事凯恩斯主义，他试图用制造外部的恐惧来掩盖内部治理的失败，用透支未来的债务来维持现在的一个虚假繁荣。
讲到这个地方，其实我不想做什么道德的评判，只是把这些事实摆出来，虽然听起来非常像是阴谋论，但其实这些都经过了事实的复核。您可以自己决定，冯德莱恩他到底算不算是欧盟一个负责任的领导。
而欧盟政治上的混乱，必然就一定会导致经济上的失血。讲到这儿，我们先收一收。我们想要理解欧洲，特别是德国在过去30年的繁荣，其实需要建立在一个非常简单的公式上——三根支柱。第一个就是廉价的俄罗斯能源，然后加上基于欧洲高端制造技术而赢得的中国跟美国的市场，再加上美国提供的安全保障，这三样加起来就等于欧洲经济的一个持久繁荣。
这个运行公式其实非常完美，直到激进的绿色新政和地缘政治的手术刀一块发力，强行切断了第一根支柱，也就是能源。对于一个工业文明来说，能源其实就是血液，所以当俄乌战争导致能源危机的这个生死关头，政府的本能反应应该是打开所有一切开关先渡过这个难关。但是，在德国，我们却见识到了人类决策史上非常罕见的认知的灾难，跟意识形态的自杀。
2023年4月15号，俄罗斯天然气已经断供了，德国工业电价飙升了三倍，无数中小企业正在死亡线上挣扎。这个时候，德国的经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克，他做了什么？他按下了按钮，强行关闭了德国最后三座运行状态完美的核电站。为什么？因为在他的这个绿党的教条里面，反核是比工业生存更高级的神学。
那如果关闭核电站只是因为观念不同，那么汉堡的一声巨响，就真的是这样一种傻逼政客的物理性的精神错乱。德国摩尔堡燃煤电厂被爆破的事情，我们其实已经说过好几回了。那据说之所以会决定炸毁它，是为了给所谓的绿色的氢能让路。那我们简单算一个账，被炸掉的是1600兆瓦24小时稳定的基荷电力，而规划当中要建设的仅仅是100兆瓦看天吃饭的氢能装置。从1600到100，中间这么巨大的电力缺口怎么办？哈贝克他不关心，他关心的只是绿色跟环保这些政治正确。
这也就是为什么德国电价会是美国的两倍，中国的三倍，因为这帮人，他们主动剪断了工业文明的大动脉。
在某次电视访谈节目当中，主持人问了一个问题，“部长先生，面对如此高昂的能源价格，您觉得这个年底会出现破产潮吗？”哈贝克回答，“不，我想象不到，面包店跟花店可能会因为成本太高而停止生产，但这个并不意味着他们会自动破产。”主持人当时都蒙掉了，“部长，如果我不再卖东西，我都没有收入了，那两个月之后，我就必须要申请破产呢，这是常识啊。”哈贝克依然坚称，“不，他们只是停止了活动。”好吧，非破产性的停止生产活动。
我想数据最终给了哈贝克一记响亮的耳光。德国统计局的数据表明，2025年前9个月，德国企业破产数量18125起，暴增11.7%，创11年以来的新高，涉及到的债权金额高达401亿欧元。这样一种为了环保而烧煤，为了反核而买核电的荒诞的闭环，正是像哈贝克这样的政客送给德国工业的绞索，也就打断了欧洲的第一根经济支柱——廉价能源。
所以我们看到，当能源不再廉价，工业也就没有了根基，我们正在目睹的不是简单的一个经济周期的波动，而是欧洲工业文明的撤退。
先看看德国化工的旗舰巴斯夫。德国的路德维希港，是全球最大的一个综合性化工的基地，也是德国工业皇冠上的明珠，但是现在巴斯夫正在进行非常痛苦的“截肢手术”。2023到2026年，巴斯夫他们正在执行一系列非常残酷的关停计划，那这些曾经日夜轰鸣，冒着白色蒸汽的管道，现在已经彻底冷清了。削减的计划能够每年减少2亿欧元的成本，但是也直接导致了超过700多个核心生产岗位的流失。
巴斯夫的CEO他说的非常直白，也非常的绝望，“欧洲的成本结构已经不能够再支持这些大宗化学品的生产了。”那么巴斯夫去哪了呢？他去了东方。在广东湛江，巴斯夫豪掷了100亿欧元，建设全球第三大一体化的基地。这样一种弃德保重的决断，虽然在德国国内饱受批评，被指责是背叛。但是从商业逻辑上来讲，这个是求生的本能，因为一边是高昂的电价跟繁琐的官僚主义，而一边是完整的产业链跟庞大的市场。资本的选择从来都是理性而且诚实的。
那如果说化工行业的这个衰退是慢性的，那么大众汽车的震荡就是一场非常剧烈的心脏骤停。大众CEO承认，欧洲汽车市场这个已经规模性的萎缩了200万辆车，而且短期内已经回不来了。如果你问他到底是什么，逼得大众不得不撕毁了跟这个社会几十年的一个不裁员的默契，而要被迫从德国本土撤退的话，我想他大概率不会说是因为比亚迪，而是会指向了布鲁塞尔的欧盟总部。
为什么呢？因为欧盟曾经将2035年定为是销售燃油车的一个死期，但是这件事情却最终演变成了一个自毁长城的工业自杀。我们看到顶层设计的这个政治意志与物理规律的这个市场现实发生了一个非常剧烈的碰撞。欧盟的管理层他们决策逻辑的这个崩坏在这个案例上体现的非常明显。欧洲车企我们知道它百年的这个统治力啊，它是建立在非常复杂的内燃机的技术壁垒上，但是欧盟却为了环保的理由，强迫大众奔驰，他们放弃这一绝对的优势，转而去到一个由电池跟软件定义的一个全新赛道，在这里跟占据了绝对优势的中国人来展开竞争。
而为了达成这个目标，布鲁塞尔的这帮老爷们，他们还制定了非常激进的一个碳排放的罚款，那如果不达标的话，将会面临数百亿欧元的罚款。但是因为后来我们也知道欧洲能源这个短缺电价高昂，然后基建滞后补贴还退坡了，所以导致了欧盟这个电动车的市场需求骤冷。所以现在欧洲的车企，他们陷入了第一个死局就是，如果卖油车要被罚巨款，卖油车要被罚款罚死，如果卖电动车会亏本亏死。
但是在另外一边，冯德莱恩他为了配合美国的这个地缘的战略，还要强行对中国的电动车加征关税。德国车企已经在哀嚎了，“不要这么干，你如果引发贸易战，我们会死得更难看。”但冯德莱恩他不在乎，因为这显示了他的强硬。但结果就是车企左右不是人，他们陷入了第二个死局就是中国的反制。那现在欧洲车企在中国这个最大的市场，他们的份额也已经开始暴跌，大众宝马的这个利润都腰斩。
通过这一系列作死的操作，欧盟丢掉了中国的市场，打烂了第三根经济支柱。那现在欧盟他不得不撤回2035年这个时间线，决策的反复本身就是欧盟陷入意识形态先行，工业基础脱节这个泥潭的一个非常典型的反应。当初设定2035年这个目标的时候，是一场基于环保啊道德高地的政治表演，但是他们完全忽视了供应链、能源价格跟消费者购买力的一个物理限制的约束。现在他们不得不撤销这个目标是因为发现为了一个环保的未来，可能要先葬送掉现在的欧洲工业，导致大规模的失业和去工业化，而这个代价现在的欧洲已经付不起了。
欧盟原本想用行政命令来倒逼产业升级，结果却成了中国车企清扫战场的带路党，欧洲政客的愚蠢。在这件事情上可见一斑。原本在这个计划当中的重要一环，欧洲曾经寄希望于瑞典的电池巨头北伏来对抗亚洲的电池。但是结果呢，这家公司因为效率太低，成本太高，因为长期造不出来合格的电池，良品率更是低得可怜，所以宝马一怒之下取消了20亿欧元的订单，转头去找韩国三星签订了合同。北伏申请破产这件事情，标志着欧洲想要建立独立自主的这个电动车产业链的梦想，彻底破灭了。车企不得不继续依赖外部的供应链，所以也就导致了成本没有办法压下来。
这个案例极其讽刺地证明了，光靠政治意志，光靠PPT画饼跟财政补贴是砸不出高科技产业链的。缺乏技术积累跟制造能力的短板，让欧洲的这个绿色电池梦在残酷的市场现实面前撞得粉碎。
我想在欧盟的官僚当中，冯德莱恩跟哈贝克当然他们不是一些例外的情况，艾森也不是要完全针对他们两个人来展开批判。我们稍微留意一下，你会发现类似这种的欧洲政客奇葩，随便一数都能够数一打。那举个例子，欧盟新任外交掌门人爱沙尼亚的卡拉斯，他居然不知道中国跟俄罗斯是二战的战胜国。德国的前外长贝尔伯克也是一个蛮搞笑的人，他曾经非常正义凛然的说，“普京必须要做出360度的转变。”
所以你看到冯德莱恩跟他们这些人其实本质上是同一类人，这是一种在西方受选民喜欢，也是被制度刻意筛选出来的一些表演型的人格。他们迷恋镜头，满口空洞的进步的价值观，对于本国的工业和能源的现实却视而不见。他们的职业生涯里面从来没有真正接触过煤炭、钢铁、粮食这些物理世界的基石，他们处理大国博弈的方式更像是跨国公司的人力资源部。我把这样一种风格定义成为“地缘政治的HR化”。当然这里要声明一下并没有对HR的不尊重的意思。
那讲到这个地方很多观众可能会问，为什么？为什么欧洲精英他们会集体陷入这样一种自杀式的短视？为什么美国作为盟友会如此冷酷的收割欧洲呢？我想要回答这个问题，我们必须要抛弃所有关于民主、自由、盟友情谊的一些幼稚幻想。我们要回到最底层的地缘政治物理学。
那作为著名的民科YouTuber，艾森在这个地方又自创了一套地缘物理学的理论，来解释并且预测国际格局的变化。我把这个理论叫做“双星系统论”。一年半以前我就已经非常明明白白的告诉过大家，世界肯定是G2的格局，没有欧盟什么事。而就在本周，达特茅斯学院的这个珍妮弗·林德教授，他发表了一篇震动学界的论文——《多极化的海市蜃楼》。那这样一篇论文实际上证实了我一直以来的判断，就是世界并没有多极化，那个是欧洲人的幻觉。
真实的世界里面，在艾森看来，其实已经坍缩成了一个严格的中美的双星系统。在论文列出的各项硬指标上，我们都看到只有中国跟美国突破了超级大国的引力门槛。其他国家，无论是俄罗斯、日本、印度，还是看似非常庞大的欧盟，全是不及格的中等强国。在物理的量级上，都只是围绕双星旋转的行星。
欧洲他们之所以一直有一个多极世界的幻想，本质上的底气也是因为曾经有的经济繁荣。以德国为例，过去30年的繁荣其实是建立在三根支柱之上的，我们刚才已经说到了。这三根支柱非常的稳固，以至于欧洲人以为他们是永恒不变的。第一个就是来自于俄罗斯的廉价管道天然气，第二个是来自于美国的无偿的安全保障，第三个是来自于全球，主要是中国的巨大的而且开放的出口市场。
因为这个永恒不变的幻觉，欧洲人他们才会放心大胆的大搞高福利社会，他们沉迷于占据道德高地，他们丧失了生存的本能。但可悲的是，就是因为这样一种永恒不变的幻觉，在长达几十年的舒适区里面，西方的选民他们也已经丧失了对于真实世界的痛感。他们投票给说话最好听的人，给那个承诺love and peace的人，给那个在instagram上面发照片最好看的人。那这样一种现象叫做“民主的审美化”。当西方社会的选民他们自己都变成了一群只想听睡前故事的巨婴的时候，我们也就怪不得西方政客把治国理政变成了是一场哄孩子的表演。所以不仅仅是欧洲政治精英的堕落，这个其实也是供需关系的必然。
那扯远了，欧洲是因为内部的癌变跟掠夺，导致了国家能力被掏空，三根支柱都被打断，从而彻底丧失了成为世界第三极的可能性。这个世界也就正是从原本可能的三体系统，演变成了双星系统。而当两个超大质量的恒星，也就是中美互相旋转，剧烈博弈的时候，他们产生的巨大的潮汐力会撕裂周围所有的中等天体。欧洲啊，日本啊，这些曾经的第三极，在这个引力场当中，他们没有办法维持独立的轨道，要么被引力撕扯，要么恒星吞噬他们作为燃料。
我想这个转变的过程是非常残酷的。为了在双星对峙当中维持自身的质量优势，美国这样一颗老恒星，它开始了非常疯狂的吸积效应。它不再对外输出秩序，而是开始向内掠夺资源。那虽然我这个胡编乱造的理论是民科哈，但说实话，其实也是有现实的解释力的。比如说很多人都看不懂，特朗普为什么突然发癫，突发奇想，对加拿大和格陵兰有了想法。其实就是因为美国发现自己对比中国已经没有碾压的质量优势了，它需要壮大自己，而这个捷径就是直接吞并。
同样的道理，华盛顿他们不仅收回了给欧洲的曾经廉价近乎免费的安全保障，亲手打断了欧洲的第二根支柱。还要将这些老欧洲毕生积累的财富转化为美国在双星博弈当中燃烧的燃料。当然了，以上这些都不是自然的物理定律，只是一种帮助大家理解的一个叙事的框架。您千万不要较真它，把这些事情当作是故事来看，就会大家都开心。
那欧洲的悲剧在于一直到现在都拒绝醒过来，它依然幻想自己是第三极，是可以平衡中美的大棋手。一个被阉割了主权的欧盟的管理层，正在配合核心的新星系，但是美国为了维持自己的亮度，它必须要燃烧欧洲这样一个木材。
我想任何封闭的系统，它们都会趋向于混乱，也就是熵增。而美国正在面临巨大的熵增，因为国内38万亿美金的这个债务黑洞，产业空心化跟社会的撕裂。所以它为了维持自身的有序，也就是低熵，它必须找到一个排泄的出口。所以华盛顿就把目光投向了它曾经最亲密的盟友，欧洲、日本、韩国，甚至包括英国这些国家。
So, this is our second concept, and a more ruthless one: Imperial Thermodynamics. The America of 2025 is constructing a new order centered on the North American fortress, and it's undergoing a process of hegemonic involution. Habek's fairy tales and von der Leyen's regulatory traps are all inevitable products of this gravitational pull, leading to the final draining of Europe's industrial lifeblood. All of this brutality must begin with the coldest numbers and the most fundamental logic.
This seemingly insane harvest also has three pillars supporting the theory of hegemonic involution. The first pillar is the shift from acquiring incremental gains to the slaughter of existing assets. Since it's impossible to completely overwhelm China in the short term, meaning incremental gains are blocked, the pressure for redistribution within the alliance will rise. To maintain an absolute advantage, the fastest way is to turn the total cake of the Western bloc into a cake exclusively for America. By devouring Germany's chemical industry and Japan's automotive sector, America's strength can continue to suppress China on paper.
The second pillar is the transfer of entropy and the creation of chaos. Geopolitical crises like the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also exporting security anxiety to Europe. Once Europe is in turmoil, European capital and industries will flow to America for safety.
The third pillar is the regression from allies to technical serfs. The current US-Europe relationship is devolving from democratic allies to a relationship akin to Rome and its provinces. By controlling core nodes like cloud technology and chips, America is imposing a form of technological feudalism on its allies.
Once you understand these three fundamental logics, you've seen the script. Now, we can leave the ivory tower of theory and enter the bloody reality of the world.
Now, imagine you are the President of the United States. Facing this situation, there are only two paths: either go bankrupt, or find someone to foot the bill. Clearly, American hegemony cannot allow bankruptcy, so America has initiated the first layer of hegemonic involution: financial harvesting. America must maintain high interest rates relative to Europe and Japan, and ensure the dollar remains the sole safe haven in a turbulent world.
For example, Dutch pension funds are the lifeblood of European livelihoods. However, from 2024 to 2025, these funds are frantically fleeing Europe. According to data from the Dutch Central Bank, by the end of 2024, Dutch pension funds' investments in US companies reached a staggering 293 billion euros, while investments in EU internal companies were only a meager 97 billion euros. This capital is not being used to invest in German factories or finance French startups; instead, it's being siphoned off by Wall Street. While we know that such capital allocation naturally involves motivations like risk diversification and return seeking, it objectively serves as support for the stock prices of companies like Apple and Nvidia, and as fuel to fill America's fiscal deficit.
This is what is known as de-capitalization. Europe is bleeding, and Japan is bleeding too. Japan, as the largest overseas holder of US debt, despite holding over 1.1 trillion US dollars in IOUs, is seeing its companies frantically move funds to America through arbitrage transactions, driven by the extreme depreciation of the yen and the allure of high dollar interest rates.
The political manipulation behind such capital flows is inseparable from the European politicians we mentioned earlier. For instance, Habek's faith in green theology has led to huge price differentials in energy, giving rise to epic arbitrage games. American exporters are exploiting the vast gap between the low natural gas prices in the US (driven by the Henry Hub) and European benchmark prices, earning astronomical profits. Even after deducting expensive costs like liquefaction, freezing, and transatlantic transportation, every LNG ship bound for Europe is a gold mine. S&P Global estimates that since 2016, the LNG industry has contributed over 400 billion US dollars to America's GDP.
So, we see that while high-priced energy from America can fill Europe's supply chain gaps, it simultaneously severs the circulatory system of European industry. This effectively means Europe is subsidizing its competitors with its own wealth, while simultaneously draining its industrial capital. This bleeding is structural and irreversible. This is a very sophisticated form of plunder. It requires no shots fired; simply through interest rate differentials and the magnetic effect of exchange rates, allies are forced to use their savings to pay for "Make America Great Again."
If high energy prices are the driving force pushing European companies out, then American policy is a giant magnet creating immense pull. The name of this magnet is the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, which we have repeatedly mentioned. The US government has allocated 369 billion US dollars, and likely more, in direct financial aid through this act. However, there is a very domineering condition attached: local content requirements. For example, to receive a $7,500 consumer car subsidy, your car must be assembled in North America. To receive a $35 per kilowatt-hour subsidy for battery production, your factory must be built in the United States.
For businesses, this calculation is incredibly simple. For instance, a standard battery gigafactory built in the US could receive billions of dollars in production subsidies from this act alone over several years. This amount could even cover its construction costs. This is equivalent to the US government telling European companies, "Come here, we'll give you a free factory." Building a factory in Europe, on the other hand, not only costs three times more for electricity but also offers no subsidies whatsoever.
If you were the CEO of such a company, how would you choose? Volkswagen had originally planned to build a massive battery factory in Eastern Europe. However, after the introduction of this act, Volkswagen directly hit the pause button and moved to North America. Why? Because after crunching the numbers, they realized that by going directly to North America, they could receive nearly 10 billion euros in subsidies. Of course, Volkswagen ultimately left Europe and moved to Ontario, Canada. And to retain Volkswagen, the Canadian government had to empty its treasury, promising to match the US subsidy level and offering 13 billion Canadian dollars. This is an example of North America itself being forced to compete. So, you see? Even Canada, a seemingly harmless and docile neighbor of the US, has to cut its own flesh to retain industries in order to counter America's draining effect.
The latest data from the US Department of Commerce shows a surge in manufacturing FDI from Europe to the US between 2023 and 2024. Capital from German BMW, Belgian companies, and Italian companies is flowing across the Atlantic like a tide towards the United States. The once-Atlantic alliance is now becoming a brutal system of center and periphery. America is the sole industrial center, and Europe is being reduced to a hollowed-out periphery providing capital and markets.
We see the familiar phrase "small yard, high fence." This term was originally used to contain China, but by 2025, this fence has become a cage for allies. In 2025, the US Department of Commerce introduced a more stringent AI diffusion framework and due diligence rules for contract manufacturing. Not only are you prevented from selling the most advanced machinery, but even the secondary DUV lithography machines and their repair services are being cut off.
By the end of 2024, ASML issued a warning that its China business would experience a cliff-like decline in 2025. You must understand that China was once ASML's largest single market, contributing enormous profits. These profits were originally intended for R&D of the next generation of EUV technology. Now, a US ban has completely severed this cash flow.
To counter American digital hegemony, Germany and France once jointly launched their own cloud project, aiming to establish a unified, autonomous, and compliant cloud architecture for Europe. To obtain technical support, they had to bring in American giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. The result? These giants internally undermined the project. Ultimately, over 70% of Europe's cloud market remains divided among the three US giants.
Even more frightening is the US Cloud Act. This act stipulates that as long as data is controlled by a US company, regardless of whether that data is stored on servers in Frankfurt or Paris, US law enforcement agencies have the right to directly access it. Not only that, but the US has also turned the supply chain into a surveillance chain. In 2025, the US, Japan, and South Korea established a so-called supply chain early warning system. Companies receiving subsidies under the CHIPS Act are required to provide the US with transparency regarding their inventory, production capacity, and customer lists. This grants the US government a god-like perspective, allowing it to precisely target any company at any time or use data to support domestic competitors.
These allies are caught in the middle, facing a dilemma. On one hand, they have to bear the extremely high costs of de-risking. On the other hand, they face the risk of raw material supply disruptions due to Chinese countermeasures. So, we see that America's allies are now like birds with clipped wings, trapped in the "security cage" woven by the United States.
After discussing economics and technology, we need to talk about another pillar of American hegemony: the military. Do you remember the broomstick mentioned at the beginning of the video? It is precisely because of this "broomstick-level" combat capability that when a crisis arrives, Europe can only rely entirely on the United States. I believe the data does not lie. According to official data from the US State Department, US foreign military sales reached a record 117.9 billion US dollars in fiscal year 2024, an increase of 45.7% compared to 2023. This growth curve perfectly coincides with the worsening European security situation.
Data shows that from 2022 to 2024, as much as 51% of the defense spending of European NATO members flowed to the United States. For example, Poland, a country on the front lines of confronting Russia, is a super VIP customer of the US military industry. Poland is emptying its national treasury to acquire American "steel torrents."
So, at this point, a perfect involutionary loop is formed. Step one: due to geopolitical threats from Russia, Europe experiences continuous security anxiety. Step two: allies are forced to significantly increase their defense budgets. Step three: because Europe's own military-industrial capacity is dispersed and inefficient, orders can only flow to the more mature US capacity. Step four: the finances of these European allies are depleted by massive military purchases, social welfare is cut, and internal instability exacerbates the security situation. Therefore, they have to rely more on American security protection to maintain regime stability. Thus, a closed loop is formed, which is an institutionalized upgrade of the "protection fee" model.
So, the so-called European strategic autonomy has become an empty slogan in the face of orders for US-made weapons. In the event of a future conflict, Europeans will provide money, land, and lives. Americans will only be responsible for collecting money and providing the buttons.
So, after so much harvesting, has America itself improved? No. The root of hegemonic involution lies in the irreversible collapse of order within America. It is precisely because America cannot solve its internal distribution problems or class contradictions that it must adopt a prioritization strategy. This is a theory proposed by scholar Jennifer Lind and has now become a consensus in Washington. America's resources are limited, and it cannot maintain order in all parts of the world simultaneously. Therefore, America has begun to shed burdens, giving rise to another core concept: North American Fortress.
In this new strategy, Europe is weaned off, forced to bear the cost of conventional military confrontation with Russia alone. America will withdraw its naval and air forces, concentrating them in the Indo-Pacific. For Japan and South Korea, it's about binding them. Through the Camp David Accords, Japan and South Korea are turned into force multipliers and breakwaters for the US military in East Asia, consuming the opponent's strategic resources and protecting America's own safety distance.
And America itself? It hides within the Greater North American Economic Zone constructed by Canada and Mexico, mandating that neighboring countries fully synchronize on critical supply chains. Mexico provides cheap labor, Canada provides mineral resources, and America provides technology and capital. So, you see, this is a closed, self-sufficient security zone. If the Eurasian continent were to fall into war one day, America, relying on this North American fortress, could still remain aloof, as it did during World War I and World War II, and even profit from the war.
Therefore, allies are no longer indivisible family members but have become tradable assets for America, and even expendable materials that can be discarded when necessary.
On the other hand, from China's perspective, a seemingly insignificant but historically significant geopolitical economic shift occurred between 2024 and 2025. China's trade volume with the Global South has completely surpassed its trade volume with G7 countries. This is a watershed moment. Ten years ago, the United States was China's largest customer, holding the lifeline of China's economy. But current data shows that the US's share of China's export market has fallen below 15%, while Global South countries now purchase more than half of China's manufactured goods. What does this mean? It means China is no longer seeking to fully integrate into the old order of the United States, which either wants to suck your blood or kill you. Instead, it is building a parallel system based on mutually beneficial real economies within a dual-star system.
For example, in Taicang, a small city in Jiangsu, China, over 500 German "hidden champion" companies have gathered. This place is known as China's "Swabia." And most ironically, this city has not only introduced German factories but has also fully adopted the dual vocational education system that Germany prides itself on. So, while young people in Germany are forced to choose a life of inaction due to educational disconnect, and while Germany's domestic artisan system is withering due to a lack of industrial support, the pure German craftsmanship spirit is being fully inherited and preserved in Taicang, China. I believe the soul of German industry is undergoing a possession across the Eurasian continent. Why can't they go back? We only need to look at Germany's infrastructure. By 2025, "as punctual as German trains" has become an international joke. The punctuality rate of German long-distance trains has once fallen below 64%. Let's also look at administrative efficiency. It wasn't until mid-2025 that the German Bundestag officially ordered the cessation of fax machine use in administration.
Paralyzed railways, network delays, bureaucratic stagnation. This is the ultimate product of governance by consulting firms.
Finally, we must reveal the most hidden, yet most absurd, link in this harvesting process. Who is paying for America's scythe? America spends money on subsidies, spends money on military buildup, and spends money on maintaining its vast carrier strike groups. Where does the money come from? America's deficit is already astronomical, right? In fact, the answer is almost black humor. This money is sent tearfully by America's allies.
As a strategic competitor to the United States, China has been very clearly and systematically reducing its holdings of US debt, with its holdings falling to a historical low of over 700 billion US dollars. But who is taking over? Who is filling this hole? It's Japan, it's the UK, and it's Europe. Especially Japan, even though the yen has depreciated sharply due to the widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan, Japanese companies are still frantically moving funds to the US through arbitrage transactions, driven by the extreme depreciation of the yen and the allure of high dollar interest rates. In a sense, this is not like being a creditor but more like voluntarily becoming a hostage.
If we connect the logic of the entire video into a closed loop, you will see how perfect Michael Hudson's concept of "super-imperialism" is. Step one: America uses geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the interest rate hike cycle, to create turmoil and high costs in Europe, forcing European capital out. Step two: this panicked capital, seeking safety, flows to America to buy US Treasury bonds, financing America's fiscal deficit. Step three: the US government takes this money and, through acts like the IRA, turns it into subsidies for factories that have moved from Europe. Step four: after the factories move, Europe is further hollowed out, unemployment rises, the economy worsens, and capital becomes even more panicked, continuing to flow to America.
So, this is another perfect vicious cycle. Allies pay to buy US Treasury bonds, helping America steal their own industries, and then they have to face currency depreciation and inflationary pressures. This is the so-called "ally tax."
I think by this point, the picture of the world in 2025 is very clear. Let's take one last look at that black broomstick stuck on the roof of the armored vehicle. Ten years ago, it was merely a soldier's helpless psychological comfort. Ten years later, it has become the epitaph of European civilization. The outer shell remains shiny and beautiful, but the core has been hollowed out. The EU has personally sawed off the three pillars supporting its economic prosperity and personally closed the door to becoming the world's third pole. Now, under the pull of gravity, they can only watch themselves fall bit by bit towards the other side of the Atlantic.
We are witnessing the world order collapsing from a potentially tripolar structure into a bipolar upheaval. America, once a confident, open beacon providing public goods, has now degenerated into an anxious, closed, and even predatory black hole. America is attempting to create a perpetual motion machine that defies the law of entropy, continuously burning allies to maintain its own order. But this is destined to be futile, because when all the fuel – the industrial capacity of Europe and the savings of Japan – has been burned up, this closed system will still head towards heat death. I believe hegemonic involution is a form of cannibalism that is destined to have no winners.
This is the Essen channel. In this chaotic era of increasing entropy, thank you for accompanying me on these tens of minutes of low-entropy thinking. Let's see through the fog and reveal the cards. We'll see you in the next episode. Thank you, everyone.