Transcription
Hi, my name is Colin and this is Colin Talks Crypto. And probably a lot of you are wondering when are we going to begin alt season in earnest.
First of all, alt season is really defined as Bitcoin dominance dropping. There's times in the market where your altcoin goes up in USD value, but Bitcoin goes up in USD value more. So it would make sense to hold Bitcoin during most of the Bitcoin bull run and bare market cycles. However, there is a small select portion of the end of most crypto cycles in which altcoins outperform Bitcoin and that's what many of the DGEN gambling type folk want to take advantage of. They want those outsized gains versus Bitcoin. A lot of us are premature to buying altcoins and then we sit there and watch them bleed where we could have been holding Bitcoin or we could have been holding at this point Ethereum and Ethereum is currently outpacing most altcoins. But there is a part of the bull run that is coming up soon I think where altcoins are going to outpace everything. And when I say soon I want to define that as in approximately two months. I think that within about two months, we're going to start seeing the alt season begin to go vertical, if you will. And we're going to start with Bitcoin dominance, which is what you're looking at right here. We have a multi-year one, two, three-year channel, these two blue lines, in which Bitcoin dominance has basically stairstepped upward pretty methodically. And last Bitcoin cycle alt season was this period right here with this yellow arrow pointing down where Bitcoin dominance plummets. That doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin USD plummets. It just means that altcoins outpace Bitcoin. And you can see it's a pretty steep plummet and it's a pretty brief period of time. And I'm going to show you exactly how long that period might be as well. How long might we expect alt season in its most vertical euphoric period to last for? Because I do have an answer for you with that.
Now, what do we have right now? We're going to zoom in a little bit. Bitcoin dominance here faked us out. It faked me out. I thought that this was it because we had dropped below the channel and it reclaimed the channel and then it exited the channel again. So, it was like a double fake out and I think this did fake out a lot of people. Then it reclaimed the channel and continued to make new highs. Now, I don't have a crystal ball and I can't tell you for sure if 65 is the ultimate peak. I think that it could be or very close to. I think that's good enough. And I think the motto of this video is going to be it's good enough. like we're in a good enough range and trying for perfection just like trying to time taking profits at a top or trying to buy in at the very bottom almost never works out statistically because no one has a crystal ball and it's very very difficult basically almost impossible to do unless you get lucky. Timing tops and bottoms is just not the right strategy. I think that timing the top 20% or the bottom 20% for buying and the top 20% for selling is a remarkable performance metric. If you were able to pull that off every time, you'd be making big bank. And I think that that's a more reasonable and more fair expectation from oneself if you are skilled. If you're not skilled, then you lose money or you just completely botch the whole thing. But we have now a more decisive looking Bitcoin dominance drop because we have it leaving the channel yet again. And it's only going to do that so many times. But the thing we have here is we have a rejection and we have a lower low. See here we had a higher low. Now we have a lower low with Bitcoin dominance plummeting below what we had here July 22nd. Now we have a lower low. that is more compelling that we are beginning the beginning stages of all season. That doesn't mean we can't climb sideways. Kind of like I've drawn here in this white line, this white curve. Just something to kind of give you an idea of a couple months of sideways chop before we begin dropping in earnest. And then the yellow arrow would indicate the actual alt season. And that's kind of what happened last cycle. We had this sideways period which lasted for a while. It didn't just drop immediately after it topped. It sort of actually double topped right here and then we had the final drop. So this could mess around for a couple months. Don't take this to mean that alt season begins immediately. It could climb back like this, mess around, and then I think it will begin to drop. So in about two months, I'm just giving you napkin math here is when it could start. But it's looking very good because we now have a weakening Bitcoin dominance. And again, that means that Bitcoin USD can still go up. It just means that altcoins start to outpace Bitcoin for the first time in the cycle. But we need some more time perhaps uh to allow this to really settle out and form a proper top and then begin dropping. And I think that could be as soon as 2 months. It could be longer, but it could be as soon as two months. And that would time with the Federal Funds rate being dropped. The Federal Reserve looks like it's finally, albeit late, going to start dropping interest rates. I think we're going to have our first interest rate cut in a long time and then they will begin hopefully more methodically. And the market's starting to price that in. The market always is forwardlooking and it is pricing that in. And I think that is why we're starting to see a weakening Bitcoin dominance because the market's waking up and going, it's perking up its ears and going, "Hey, what's around the corner here?" sniffing out the easing laxing interest rates and that's when the highest risk assets gain the most is when you have the loosest monetary policy. Tightening the monetary policy makes Bitcoin the winner, the alpha asset, and all the other coins kind of go on standby on hold and wait and wait and wait until easier monetary conditions. Well, easier monetary conditions are finally looking to be just around the corner. And by just around the corner, I mean within about two months at the earliest.
Okay, just to kind of give you something to set your eyes on. Now, we're going to take a look at a few other charts here that are all backing up the fact that this could be it. Here's a chart from TechDev. And this chart is total two as priced in BTC. Total 2 divided by BTC. And total two is all of cryptocurrency subtracting Bitcoin. So, every coin except for Bitcoin as priced in Bitcoin. And you can see that this is breaking up right here. We finally have here's a moving average. We have a break up finally in the dominance of every coin together except for Bitcoin versus Bitcoin. And that's a bullish indicator. We haven't seen that for three years. That's the first time in three years we've seen a breakout like that. And that matches Bitcoin dominance, what I just showed you, breaking down. This is in a way sort of an inverse Bitcoin dominance. And that would make sense because we have Ethereum breaking out. Right now we have $4,300 Ethereum. We haven't seen that for four years really since the last all-time high. And remember others, too, is every altcoin including Ethereum as priced in Bitcoin. And here it is, Ethereum breaking out. I would actually argue that most of the others too breakout is caused directly by Ethereum and there may be some other coins as well but Ethereum is the leader right now. Ethereum is taking charge after this massive deviation, this massive fake out. Ethereum is taking charge. It is making new all-time highs very soon. It has broken out of this ascending bullish wedge and it's just begun. We really are just at the cusp of it. So, I mean, the target for Ethereum is easily double. I would say like $8,000 easily. Could be $10,000, something like that. And we're just at the beginning. Okay. So, what leads alt season? Well, typically Ethereum pulls all the alts up. So, we have a great starter. Here's another corroborating metric where Ethereum is starting to take charge and Ethereum is starting to outpace. And that means that the other alts will follow next. but not yet, right? Like it could be a couple months.
Here's the same total two chart, but this time it's not divided by Bitcoin. It's not priced in Bitcoin. So, this is every altcoin together except for Bitcoin. All their market caps combined. We can even look at it. Here's how you check this out. By the way, guys, click on security info. It's the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin. So, all market caps of all coins combined minus Bitcoin. And what do we have here? We have a beautiful, beautiful formation of uh multiple retests of this very strong resistance right here, this all-time high. But the more retests you get, we have one, two, huge multi-year span, then three, four, and it's very probable we will break through this very soon in short order. So, we have a lot of tests and as Richard Hart said, it's like gravity. You know, if you invert this, for example, you know, if you had gravity, well, what do you have here? If say you dropped a ball, I mean, it really is that simple. You dropped the ball, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, breaks through. And breaking through when you uninvert it means new all-time highs. So, this chart also corroborates everything. It looks like we have about a couple months, could be sooner, but I think a couple months minimum till it really definitively breaks out. That looks great. It's a great setup. It's beautiful. It's like right here when it broke out. Well, we're at that point. Arguably even stronger because of the amount of pentup energy and the amount of retests.
Next, we have what is one of my favorites. This is the total three chart. Now, the total three chart is very similar. It's all altcoins minus Bitcoin and Ethereum. You're taking all the market caps of every coin except for Bitcoin except for Ethereum. And again, I have a beautiful setup. If you just look at the two horizontal yellow lines up here, these were like the all-time highs being breached right here. And here's the all-time high. And we're just below it. We're not even above it yet. And that's because I've taken Ethereum out of the mix. And Ethereum adds strength. So total 2 is stronger than Total 3. Here's total 2. See how it's actually pushing into the new all-time high range. And Total 3 is just below it because we've taken Ethereum out of the mix. But when you guys are asking when alt season probably a lot of you are asking about your favorite coin which is not Ethereum. So this is the chart you would look at total three and it's set up beautifully. It's set up beautifully. We actually have a cup and handle here. Here's the cup and then the handle and then off to the races. So this is going to be the next move.
Now I want to answer the question, well how long could this move last for? If we think it's going to begin in about two months, perhaps timed with the Federal Reserve dropping interest rates, well, let's take a look at last cycle and do a measurement. And this is from the all-time high being broken. Okay, I'm going to do it a couple ways. Now, let's do the conservative look. When the all-time high was broken, we had from here to here, and this was three bars, and this is monthly candles, so that's three months. And then the second peak over here, because it was a double top, was 9 months. So 3 months and nine months to the top. The other way we can look at this is when was the steepest most vertical portion of the altcoin bull run? It was really from here to here. I'm going to not include this second peak because I don't anticipate us having uh a double top again. Anything's possible, but I'm going to take the conservative approach because I'm not trying to mistime things. If anything, I want to capture some profits, right? but I don't want to miss them. And the more you procrastinate and delay profit taking, the more you're kind of gambling, you know, you're you're increasing your risk, and you could be increasing your reward, but you could also be decreasing your reward because you might miss the top. So, let's be conservative here. You can always feel free to wait longer than I'm showing, but I'm going to keep it conservative and give us an estimate. So, we have a six bars here. That's six months for the steepest portion of the altcoin bull run. This is every altcoin except for Ethereum and not including Bitcoin either. So what I've done is I've drawn the arrow already at that point. So I've taken two months from now when I anticipate the start of this total three breakout every coin except for Bitcoin and Ethereum and two months starting point which is October roughly and six months drawn to the right of that. You can see here I'll prove it. six months there. Six bars from the end of the arrow to the tip of the arrow. So that's what I think the chart's going to look like. And where does that put us? And now this is the part that kind of I guess it shouldn't really shock me. April April 2026 is where the conservative estimate of the end of the alt season bull run where you would want to take your profits or right before that could be could be as far as April 2026. And the reason I guess I caught myself there and said, "Well, maybe I shouldn't be too surprised is because if we do have, for example, Bitcoin's bull run running right up to December, the end of December or the beginning of January, well then we do need a couple months of time to elapse for altcoins. And if you don't know this datim, the DATM is basically that altcoins top generally later than Bitcoin as the money flows from alpha down to beta assets. Once a top has found, the liquidity kind of goes downstream to all the lower market cap coins before everything collapses in a bare market. That's the final death throws of the bull market where it it peaks and it tops. It flows from Bitcoin, then it flows to Ethereum next, and then it kind of flows down to the rest. And each of those different flows takes a matter of weeks or even several months in the case of some of the lower cap coins. And here's another piece of information for you. If you look at the previous bull run peaks for Bitcoin and then when the bull run peaked for Ethereum about three weeks elapsed. So Bitcoin topped first, 3 weeks occurred and then Ethereum topped and that happened a couple times and then you have some straggler other coins topping as well after that and that would be what this chart is showing you because this chart is not showing you Ethereum. This is showing you the lower market cap coins. So that's my I guess longer way of explaining how I could see this being realistic. April 2026 could be the top. It could go further, right? Like it could go further. I mean, and here in this case, I said we took the conservative first peak. I didn't want to take this further peak. If we took the further peak, we'd be over here in September 2026. I'm not personally going to be waiting that long. I think that's highly risky and I'll be happy if we see a runup till April. I will probably start taking profits before then and start dcaing out way before April because that's the top, right? You don't want to wait till the top to take your profits because you can be wrong. You can mist time it and when the top is hit, like things can plummet fast. So, I would start a month or two early. And that's just myself speaking to myself. Not financial advice. Take it for what you will, but we are on the cusp of alt season. The time has come. And it's interesting to note how little of the bull round really is alt season. I mean, Bitcoin dominates for three of the four years and then you have this last little sixmonth or I guess you could count it from down here. Uh maybe a year if you're lucky, uh alt season. So, one of the four years is alt season and three of the four years is Bitcoin season. And that would be total three dropping here.
Okay guys, I hope you found this interesting. I'm looking forward to continuing to track all these metrics, including Bitcoin dominance as it continues to perhaps go sideways for two months and then finally dropping in the glory that is alt season. And when it finally happens, it will drop far. It will drop all the way down like this. Probably, like we said, by April, right? So, this arrow, if we were to draw it further, might go like this. Might just go. We don't know exactly where it will bottom, but I have a feeling something like that. If you zoom out, that's like a there's a lot of support here in this range. So, in the 40s probably for Bitcoin dominance. And that will be when your alts are climbing. Have a great day, guys.