Transcription
These are wide receivers we're going to bet everything on this year. We think they're going to be very good for fantasy football purposes. We're going to recommend that you draft him in your fantasy football leagues. The first guy being Lad McConi.
I'm all in on Lad this year after the offensive coordinator change. Right? Last year, it was a number of things for the Chargers. It was the offensive line was absolutely decimated. You lost Alt there. You lost Slater there. You lost all of their offensive line for the most part. So, as a result, the running game was worse. But Justin Herbert also couldn't hold on to the ball as long as he wanted to to work the intermediate part of the field. That's a big thing for Lad Manunki, a guy who gets a ton of his targets and a ton of his fantasy points, working the middle of the field, 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He didn't really have time to let those plays develop last year.
And so, he took a major hit when you're looking year-over-year in his production. He went from having, you know, target-wise, the same amount of targets, but had 16 less receptions and also had 350 less yards. That's a significant dip. His yards per route run last year plummeted because he was still running the same amount of routes, but he was getting the ball a lot less and he was getting a lot less, like a lot less yardage again, because of that offensive line struggling.
Also, I don't think the scheme was that good for Lad Manki last year. Part of the reason I was going to be very low on Lakoni coming into this year was because of that Greg Roman scheme and what it does for wide receivers like Lad Makanki. But now everything has changed as the duck would say, right?
Lad Makoni gets Mike McDaniel as of as his offensive coordinator. He is going to do a couple things. Number one, he's going to run more two wide receiver sets, which will dramatically help Lad Makoni get fantasy points. Less Quentyn Johnson, Keandre Lambert Smith, and Lad Makoni all on the same field at the same time. Less Keenan Allen on the field with Lavak Makoni. That's going to help number one, but number two, the offensive line is going to be a lot better this year. You're going to get all of those guys back.
Schematically, Mike McDaniel is going to do everything he can to get Lad the ball because Lad is the clear alpha wide receiver in that offense. In my opinion, he's the best player. And you're looking at his route running analytics. According to reception perception from last year, Lad was one of the premier route runners in the league. Still, showing that regardless of, independent of the situation, it was not Lad's performance as a route runner, as a receiver, that was actually bringing down his fantasy points. It was all the context. It was the offensive line. It was the scheme. It was Justin Herbert not being able to get the ball out.
And so, with all of that considered, Lad, even if he gets the same amount of targets as he did the last two years, I would expect a an increase in efficiency. Again, I would expect more yardage. I would expect more receptions on those targets. And I think you can see an increase in touchdowns as well, especially if Keenan Allen isn't back there. You're going to lose a pretty big red zone threat. You do have a Ronda Gadson and David and Jooku there. But six and seven touchdowns last year for Lad Mankey. You remember how he gets a lot of those though? He gets a lot of those on plays of 20 plus yards, right? Those are the types of plays that I think are going to have more time to develop this year in that LA Chargers offense.
It's a guy who averaged 11.3 points per game last year. When you're looking at his rookie year, he averaged 15 points a game. He took a big dip and I would expect him to go back up to 15 16 points a game this year. I think Llad Mank is a guy that has low-end wide receiver one upside. He is in maybe the best situation in the NFL offensively with Herbert and Mike McDaniel and Jim Harbaugh and the offensive line's going to be way better. I think it's a slam dunk set of situations for Lad Mankey.
Right now, his price is he's going at the 34 turn. I will take him there all day every day. What that allows me to do is take a running back early in draft or even two running backs and have Lad Man, who I think is going to have a low in wide receiver one upside as potentially my wide receiver one, maybe my wide receiver two. I think he's a slam dunk pick there. Again, at the point where you're talking about getting him in the third or fourth round of fantasy football drafts, I think he's going to outperform that ADP. I'm very high on Lad Makoni this year and I think the situation is going to lead to a big Lad Maki bounceback and we're going to get the year, the sophomore year that we always wanted, except it's going to be in year three, and he's going to make fantasy managers everywhere really happy.
If you want to essentially guarantee that your first round selection in your fantasy draft does not completely bust, then draft Ammon St. Brown. St. Brown, since he came into the league and since he got, you know, actually all of the work and all of the opportunity, basically post rookie season when he had to work his way up the depth chart. Um, wide receiver seven, wide receiver 3, three, and three the last three years, has played 16, 16, 17, and 17 games.
Had more targets last year than we have ever seen in his career, the years prior: 141, 164, and 146 targets. Will we see 170 targets again this next season like we did last year? Uh, I don't think it's any guarantee. I don't think it really matters though either. You saw the least efficient, um, on a on a target to reception uh basis season for Almanra St. Brown than we've ever seen, even with that 30 target increase from 2024 to 2025. He still had the same amount of receptions. He was more efficient in the air. Had like 150 more yards, but he had the same amount of touchdowns that we've come to know and love with Ros St. Brown. Every single year he has over 10 touchdowns. That's kind of baked into his price.
I think people are overly concerned about Aman Ross St. Brown every single year quote unquote regressing when he's one of the most consistently reliable wide receivers in like modern fantasy of of this era. Like Oman St. Brown is more consistent than just Justin Jefferson and CD Lamb. He is just a clip below Jamar Chase and JSN because he doesn't have that, uh, I I guess you could say, upside necessarily on like a week-toeek basis. But man, his floor is just so so high and he's so consistently reliable.
I wouldn't be too too worried about Drew Petting coming into that offense and being the new offensive coordinator. I'm not the biggest Drew Petting fan of all time. I don't think it's like necessarily the the best hire ever. I I do think it's an improvement from what they had from a play calling perspective last season in Detroit, but Petting is known to, you know, use a lot of like versatile tight end sets. Um, he does like to utilize his running backs quite a bit, but really when you're thinking about Drew Pexing, the offensive coordinator, and who could potentially take a fantasy production hit this season, I think it's absolutely Jameson Williams.
When you look at what the Cardinals have struggled with the last couple of seasons under Drew Petting, it has been, "How can we get Marvin Harrison the ball?" The guy who's going to be really the the one who's going to line up on the outside, going to be a big deep threat, a big touchdown threat. Um, a guy who's going to win in contested catch situations. That's the guy that really struggled to be consistently productive. It wasn't the guy who was working the middle of the field and had a lot of yakability and was the easiest target on the field. That was Trey McBride. Almond Ross St. Brown and Trey McBride and the way that they operate offensively are actually not that much different. Sam Laaporta I think has a lot of opportunity to be productive this year as well in a Drew Petting offense.
But if you're going to bet on anybody like actually regressing this season, how about the guy who is a wide receiver one in PPR points last year and Jameson Williams who is playing second fiddle to Almanra St. Brown who has been a top three fantasy wide receiver the last two years? Like I I just don't like if you're taking a shot on a wide receiver who you just want to be guaranteed a top five wide receiver this season barring injury. Oh, and by the way, Alman Rah St. Brown always plays through injury. In the mid to late first of your fantasy draft, Aman RAR is the guy that you want to take a shot on here because it's not even taking a shot. It's just taking a absolute guaranteed stud who is going to be an incredible top wide receiver option for you if you take a receiver in the first round.
So, big fan of Aman Raw this year, as we are of Aman Ra every single year. He should be drafted exactly where expert consensus has him ranked, which is the seventh overall uh fantasy selection this season. I think you're going to see in a lot of drafts he slides to the late first round. Um, like we saw actually in the flock league last year. Um, that's always a possibility for Aman Ra because people just question the ceiling. Like, "Top three wide receiver, bummer." That's that's the worst ceiling I've ever heard of in my entire life. Uh, it it's not. I think Alman Ra, of all the guys that could benefit from Drew Petting being in this this offense aside from Sam Laaporta potentially taking a huge jump, it's going to be Aman Raw continually producing at the level that he has been his entire career.
Yeah, if you want to have a first round pick that doesn't bust, it's he is maybe the safest pick ever in fantasy football. I, I, I love Alan St. Brown.
Okay, last year I made a mistake in the flock league, and you saw it. I mean, you see our mistakes in the flock. Nathan's actually never made a mistake in the flock league ever in his entire career. But no, in all seriousness, you see us make mistakes in there all the time. One of the mistakes I made last year was drafting Terry McLaren pretty early last year. And Terry McLaren, uh, for lack of a better term, did uh, nothing last year. He did nothing.
Last year he had a game where he had 22 points. He had a couple double- digit games, two three other double- digit games, and outside of that did absolutely nothing. By the way, pretty much all of his production came from week 13 and on. Weeks one through 11, he had two double- digit games and he only played in four games. There's a lot to this though. Terry McLaren was hurt for last year.
First of all, what we've learned, I think a big thing that I learned with the Terry McLaren experiment last year that I'll kind of continue into this year if it's applicable to any player, is when you have a guy that doesn't come to training camp, is holding out for contract, and then, and then starts practicing right before week one, etc., things like that. A lot of times you see production dips with those guys. But Terry McCor not only had the production dip, he came out, he was healthy the week one. Jaden Daniels was healthy week one. He didn't do squat. Then he got hurt and he was, you know, this is 30-year-old Terry McLaren. Like he was hobbled pretty much the whole year after this and it led to him really not playing again until week 13.
When he did come back, you did not see him play with Jaden Daniels that much. And that was a big thing. So there was not really a time last year where Terry, after coming off the contract stuff, which is why the contract stuff is horse crap, wide receivers who want to hold out because of contract extensions, like, you have to kind of flag that. We've seen it happen multiple years in a row with Brandon Iayuk and then Tara McCor. Um, so you have to, you have to keep that in mind.
But, uh, when you're looking at Terry McLaren last year with and without uh, Jaden Daniels, he averaged 7.2 points with Jaden Daniels in three games and without, in the seven games, he had 13.2 points per game. I think the main reason that you saw Jaden Daniels with with Jaden Daniels be so low is because it was at the beginning of the year when there was a production due because he hadn't been practicing and because Debo was tearing it up in that time. I think part of that was because Debo's at training camp. Debo's actually gone this year. They didn't really bring in anybody else. Maybe they bring in Brandon Iayuk, maybe. But Terry's left there. The guy who was stealing his targets is gone.
And Terry, without Jaden Daniels last year in a situation that wasn't very good, was still averaging 13 points a game, which was 18th among wide receivers in that same time span. This year, we get Jaden Daniels back, get healthy Daniels, healthy Terry, full training camp, no Debo, and an entire season of both of them. Hopefully, all of those factors are going to compound to Terry McLaren scoring 13 to 15 points a game this year, in my opinion.
He that is an offense that's going to score points. It is an offense that's going to have uh a lot of vertical threat to it and Terry McLaren is going to be legitimately like the only guy there. That's why people are, you know, throwing in Chig as sleep as sleeper at the tight end position because who else is there to catch passes? Like Jaylen Lane was technically catching passes there last year which was crazy. But outside of that, like I mean you're looking at Terry McLaren and he is going to get the majority of the targets there.
Last year he had about a 23% target share. I think that goes up to 26 27% again without Debo Samuel. And I would expect, again, both of these guys being healthy without Debo Samuel. Uh, I, I, I would expect this team to be better, the Washington Commanders to be better. I would expect their offense as a whole to be better. And I would expect Jaden Daniels to be better this year. And I would expect Terry to be better. And if they're both healthy, all of that is going to lead more production.
And again, when you're looking at Terry, even at 30 years old, averaging 13 points a game without Jaden Daniels, with their backup quarterbacks, last year in a bad situation, you have to acknowledge that the upside's going to be a lot higher than that this year in a much better situation with Jaden Daniels. And so, I think Terry's due for a bounceback year.
Uh, in terms of like where Terry McLaren is being drafted right now, you're looking at getting him somewhere in the fourth, almost the fifth round to be honest with you, like closer to the four five turn, which is pretty much exactly where he was going last year, which gives me some PTSD. I'm not going to lie, but I think last year, you know, if Terry McLaren and Jay Daniels had both stayed healthy, he would have ended up being a pretty good return on investment and not missed both the season. You can't predict injury. And when you you saw when he was healthy, even with the backup, he was good. And so, the price is about the same as last year. I'm still willing to take my shot on Terry McLaren, an offense that I think is going to be good with him and Jaden Daniels both being healthy. And with no Debo Samuel this year, Terry McLaren is due for a bounceback year, and I think you're going to end up getting it.
If you don't want to bet on bounceback, I would bet on a guy who has been consistently a wide receiver one for over a decade. Um, and is in the best offense in the NFL with the best quarterback in the NFL and the best head coach play caller in the NFL and Shawn McVey, Matthew Stafford, and the Rams offense. It's Devonte Adams playing alongside Pukanukua who was like over 23 points per game last season. Um, and yet, despite that, Devonte Adams still averaged just under 16 points per game.
And I understand the reason that people are a little concerned with Devonte Adams this season because he had 14 touchdowns last year, which was second highest ever in his career. I will say Adams has always been a high touchdown volume type of guy. That's why he makes his money. That's why he's still in the league because he is the best, um, he, he, I, I would say objectively, he is the best red zone threat, um, of of this era in in the NFL. obviously doing it with Aaron Rogers. It's translated to his time in Vegas all the way to his time with the Rams. Like he just he just does this. He and Mike Evans. Evans is more of like your, you know, big play, deep threat, vertical threat. Devonte Adams is like, once you're in the red zone, it's Adams back shoulder and he's going to bring it down.
Um, now the biggest concern here is 60 receptions and 789 receiving yards is the lowest that we have ever seen from him since 2015 for receptions and receiving yardages. And that was before his breakout. He only had one touchdown that year. He only had 94 targets that year. This is the lowest amount of target volume that we've seen from Adams since his third year in 2016 where he had 121 targets.
We are getting more to the range, I think, in Devonte Adams career. Obviously, he's not the number one option for an offense. He is now the number two option, which is actually, I think, good for him maintaining some sort of level of this production from like 16 points per game being his ceiling down to like 13 or 14 points per game for Adams. I think that really being his that that's his floor. He's obviously got to stay healthy. He struggled with a hamstring injury at the end of last season. Um, which kind of hurt his consistency at the end of the year. Um, and you're going to have that concern for all these oldies here.
I mean, when you look at expert consensus on the site, we have Terry Adams and Mike Evans ranked back to backto back, um, across the site with all creators there. And we have Adams personally ranked overall of those guys because I do think, again, Terry, you're betting on a bounceback. Mike Evans already been hobbled from injury consistently the last couple of years. Adams is the one who has remained consistent and is by far objectively in the best situation here.
So with with Adams, man, I, I think if you're going to take a shot on somebody in the early fifth round who is proven, who is a veteran, who is in a great situation, like he he's your guy. He's essentially been re he's he's been rewarded, um, this season in your fantasy drafts from an ADP perspective, uh, by getting knocked down like almost a full round. He was going like early to mid-4th last season. People expecting, you know, a solid season. He exceeded expectations and now he's like going lower than he did last season where we know what his role is going to be there offensively this year.
Touchdown regression obviously going to be the biggest concern. If you're going to bet on anybody in the NFL ever to not regress from a touchdown perspective or not significantly enough to a point where it's going to like massively impact his production, it would be Devonte Adams. Like Devonte Adams has done this for a living for over a decade and I don't expect it to really get worse this season as long as everybody stays healthy there. And again, the the risk is kind of factored into his price at this point with him being a fifth round selection. Um, I think he's a really really good shot to take when you've seen this for years and years and years and years.
Justin Jefferson is a guy last year, just look at his splits with, wait for it, Carson Wentz and without Carson Wentz. This is going to make my argument right here. This is the only thing that needs to make it. Like this is it. Like I could end it here.
Justin Jefferson with Carson Wentz last year in five games averaged 16.3 points per game which was 13th in the NFL. He was fourth in targets, seventh in target shares, six in receptions, third in receiving yards. Uh, all while being in touchdowns, he didn't have a single touchdown. That was with no touchdowns. That is his floor of floors.
And last year without Carson Wentz, so that was with who? JJ McCarthy, Max Bromer. Two of the worst NFL quarterbacks that I've seen start like in the last couple of years. 10 points per game on a 31% target share. 10. All he needed last year to produce above 10 points, six points higher with no touchdowns, was Carson Wentz.
I am telling you right now that Kyler Murray will be twice as effective for JJ McCarth for for Justin Jefferson as Carson Wentz was. He is going to score touchdowns with Kyler Murray. He is going to be top 10 in all of these metrics like a like Justin Jefferson normally is with Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray doesn't have to be good.
And I get that Kyler Murray's bad. I know. I've watched him. At the same time, Kyler's been in one of the worst situations in the NFL the last couple years. I think his situation was completely mishandled. I do not think they built a good enough offense or offensive line around him. He has been coming off of injury. Last year he got hurt, but they kind of called it a benching, but he was actually hurt. If you look at his injury report, he was injured last year as well.
He comes back this year. He is going to clear JJ McCarthy as the starting quarterback in Minnesota. And when he does, Justin Jefferson is going to score you 18 to 20 points a game this year. Book it. It will happen. That is what Justin Jefferson is. He is one of obviously barring injury or something like that. He is one of the best wide receivers in the entire NFL. That has not changed.
And again, at the point where you can produce at 16 points a game as your floor with Carson Wentz as your quarterback in the year of our Lord 2025, you know that he's still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And I, again, I am reiterating this to you as much as I can. Kyler is so much better than all those other quarterbacks there in terms of for fantasy purposes, right? DeHop was extremely productive with Kyler Murray. Christian Kirk was productive with Kyler Murray. Trey McBride was productive with Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray has supported highlevel fantasy assets. It will be no different with Justin Jefferson.
Kyler is good enough at football to be able to not only extend plays, which is going to really help in that offense, but get Justin Jefferson the ball at a high enough clip and at an accuracy level where Justin Jefferson can actually catch the ball. Because again, the target share was not the problem with Jefferson when he didn't have WS 31%. But how many of those targets were actually catchable? Hardly any of them. And that's what happens when JJ McCarthy's your quarterback. Kyler Murray is much better.
Kyler Murray Kyler Murray will support Justin Jefferson as a wide receiver. One, again, Justin Jefferson is obviously still going in the first round, so you're not getting him at a discount, which kind of sucks, but I would bet even though I'm not I want to reiterate this. I'm not afraid to take Jefferson this year. He's going at the end of the first perfect. He's a good end of the first pick. You're going to get back to seeing the Justin Jefferson we all know and love where he averages 19 to 20 points a game. He had that for five straight years, right? For four straight years, and then his rookie year averaged 17. He's going to be a top five wide receiver again this year. I promise you he will. And it's going to be because of Kyler.
As long as Kyler can stay healthy and Justin Jefferson can stay healthy, he's going to have a 30% target share. He's going to score you 18 to 20 points a game. And he's going to be a good pick in the first round. And if people are scared to take him in your league because of last year, you're going to be the guy that says, "I don't care. I'm taking him." Because Kyler's that much of an upgrade for him. All he needs is a semi semicompetent Call of Duty playing quarterback. And he's got that now.
Last guy we're going to have here is not necessarily a sexy name, but he's a guy who you're going to find is pretty valuable for your flex spots, we would expect, this season. Um, and that is Well Robinson who's going I, I, man, he's he is such a good value right now. Dude is dude is going like eighth ninth rounds in a lot of your drafts because everybody's so hyperfocused on Carnell Tate as you should be to an extent.
I think Carninal Tate is very exciting. Obviously, he's the upside pick. He's the long-term number one option for Cam Ward. Um, and a Brian Dave will run offense in Tennessee long term. from Carnell Tate, um, is going to be a guy that's going to line up exclusively on the outside while no Robinson is going to operate primarily out of the slot. These two wide receivers are very complimentary.
And when you look at how Brian Dable has operated over the last, you know, four years in New York as the head coach there, he has liked to get Wel Robinson very much integrated there offensively with I would say more elite talent and elite neighbors. Um, and yet Wall was still decently productive there. And it kind of all came to a head in 2025 where Well went from 140 targets and only 10.8 points per game in 2024 to the same amount of target volume in one less game with 13.6 points per game. And he didn't even increase like significantly in touchdown volume. He went from three to four touchdowns. He's not a big touchdown threat.
He was way more efficient on a per reception basis. He had over 1,000 receiving yards last year. 11 yards per reception compared to 9.9, 8.8, and 7.5 his first three years in the league. Wandell Robinson has improved not only as a route runner, he has improved after the catchwise and just what he can do from a versatility perspective on the field. I think Wando went from an exclusive slot like short dump down option to like, "Hey, I can do some stuff down the field and I can actually be explosive after the catch."
And this is coming from a guy who like Wandell heavily contributed to, uh, getting me out of, uh, being the toilet bowl champion last year in the flock league. Like I traded for Well. He ended up being a significant flex option and it really really helped and it helped a lot of other people that were in, you know, actual playoff runs and way more relevant than I was. He ended up being a guy that you were looking at flexing pretty much every single week because again, understandably so, like Neighbors went down with injury and you're not going to be looking at Wandell being the top option, um, in Tennessee this season with Carnell Tate there. But I mean, that could be potentially something that you're looking at there. Wandell could be the leading target option there for the first half of the season if Tate takes a little bit of time to get rolling.
Not to mention, historically, we've seen Cam Ward, I mean, dating all the way back to college. Who was Cam Ward's favorite target offensively back in Miami? You remember good old Xavier Restrepo who couldn't like run worth a darn because he wasn't fast and yet he was the slot there and Cam Ward loved targeting him like crazy and he was super productive. Like I'm not saying that directly translates to NFL production or anything like that for a guy like Well Robinson, but I do think that Brian Dable, if anything, he does have a lot of faults as a head coach, but as a offensive play caller, he does cater to the, um, abilities and the preferences and the skill sets of his quarterbacks and who they favor, um, in the passing game and and what they do best at. And I think finding Well Robinson is going to be a big part of that. But I think Cornell Tate's going to be a high upside big play type of guy who could command a decent amount of target volume as well.
But Wandell, I mean, don't be shocked if he, if he gets another like 120 plus target season, um, in this offense that's looking to be quite a bit more explosive than it was last season. So Well pretty sneaky here. Again, not ranked super high in expert consensus. He's he's around guys like Chris Godwin, Rashad White, uh, Kyle Manungai, I Parker Washington who's in a super crowded room, Jaden Reed, Aaron Jones, R.J. Harvey. I mean, a lot of these guys could be waver level assets when it's all said and done. And I don't think that's ever going to be the case for Well as long as he's a number two option in this offense with Brian Dable who knows him. And again, Well went to Tennessee because Brian Dable was was going to be the offensive coordinator there. Like there's there's predetermined established chemistry in that situation and I think it's going to result in solid flexw worthy production for Well again this season.
So there you go. Those are guys we love for fantasy football this year. Wide receivers, that's all we've got for you. We appreciate you guys. You can check out the season pass below if you want to unlock the new algorithm and everything that comes with it. Thanks for watching. We'll see you with more videos soon. Heat. Heat. N. feel. Hey.