Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. I hope you had a very good holiday season and that Santa Claus spoiled you. Today, we're going to do a little review because on cryptos, well, Santa Claus isn't spoiling us that much at the moment. Well, after all, 2025 isn't the best year, as we can see, we have a candle here that's going to close in the red in 5 days. So, but hey, when we look at 2023, 2024, we can't complain. After all, I know that the majority of people who watch my videos are invested in altcoins, and unfortunately, yes, altcoins are very ugly. I totally agree with you on that. Now, that's it, I've already talked about it, being aligned on altcoins is not often the best strategy. So today, we're going to do, yes, BTC and Ether, the altcoins you asked to analyze, I have three as usual. BGB, AAVE, and GRT. And we'll also talk about the US market.
So, Bitcoin, still in this phase of sideways movement, it's not moving. We even see that we have a new compression here that is underway, blocked between two levels. We are forming a small range within a larger range. Okay. And that's it, for the moment, we are consolidating. There is no volatility, it's the holidays. I think we can expect a return of volatility next week. Okay. Now, it's going to be the weekend. So, likewise, generally, weekends, even less volatility. It's normal, it's quite classic, but it wouldn't surprise me. Uh, yes, uh, yes, next week, Monday or Tuesday, to have a, yes, especially Monday, to have a strong move, that wouldn't surprise me. Well, we'll see anyway how the US market pushes at that time, whether it's upwards or downwards. But anyway, on Bitcoin, you just have to be patient. Either you are a range trader, and in that case, well, you look to position yourself at the extremes. Either for a medium-term range like this, or a slightly shorter-term range like this one, where we will look for longs at the low extreme and look for TPs at the pivot point, then shorts at the high extreme to look for TPs again at the pivot point. But yes, the worst thing to do is to position yourself randomly within a range.
Now, this range, some people feel like it's been around for a long time. We've been in a range for about a month. We started it at the end of November, around November 21st, 22nd. So, that's a month of sideways movement. We've had longer ranges, when we look at this range here, it was for 8 months of range here. So it's normal for the market to take breaks. Given the volatility it had in just a few weeks, we went from $126,000 to $80,000 here. We took a good -35% on that. It's normal that we are moving sideways, especially since we are not anywhere, we are still at this support level, and in the long term, we are especially at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. It's our first, it's a level that must be defended by buyers, because if we assume that the 0.382 will allow us to maintain our trend, and that's how we use a Fibonacci. The first stop, the 0.382 allows us to know if we are still in an upward dynamic for an entire movement. And if we lose these 0.382, there will be a high chance of reaching 0.18 here. If we look at this entire upward phase, the 0.382 held here. 0.382 acted as support. At this level, we didn't even retest them. Here, we retested them perfectly. We wicked on them. Here, it's exactly the same. Hop, we wicked from it. And for the moment, here, we are consolidating on it. And this reminds me of the 2017 bull market where it was exactly the same thing. Hop, you'll see my Fibonacci. I take the lowest point. This is very important. See? Hop, we start here, 0.382. I'm going to zoom in. So, it's really the closes that need to be watched. So, already here, hop, we wick on it. Okay, we extend 0.382. We wick on it. Very good. We make a new high to come back to the 382 and wick on it again here. Hop, see, perfectly. Again here. Perfectly. Again here as well. So you see, we are in pretty much the same trend. This one was much more volatile with a much larger amplitude until we reached where we bounced and then broke it. And then it's a downward dynamic reversal. So, we are really at a key level on Bitcoin, and that's why I'm talking about three long-term zones that interest me. The first is the 0.382, $86,000, because, from a price action perspective, we also have good confluence. So that's why I repositioned myself on my long-term spot on Bitcoin at this level, but slightly. Okay. And then these are two big zones for me. If we break here, we start to go below this level, we could enter into a larger downward trend here and confirm the bull market. Some say the bull market isn't here yet. I think we have probabilities of entering a bull market. It's not 100% certain. However, if we go below this level, we can talk about a bear market and a bear market. From the moment we start to have a -45% to -50%, it's a bear market. Don't wait for -90% on Bitcoin, it won't happen anymore. We see that in the long term, the drops are much less significant. The last drop was -77%, so really, yes, 75%. So really, if we are to assume that the drops are less significant, let's say, we could perhaps have a -60% to -65%. In the worst case, I find it hard to see Bitcoin going back below $25,000, given the price, the cost of production of Bitcoin, the majority of miners would be at a loss, and yes, very unlikely. Well. And then on the short term, we saw it, it's a phase of sideways movement. We are consolidating here at our central pivot point, which is roughly the middle of this sideways phase. And here, it's mainly the 4-hour tunnel that still acts as resistance. We see that we are making lower highs. We still have selling pressure here with a sort of compression. Here, we see lower highs, and troughs that are still slightly higher. And well, we'll have to watch the exit of this compression phase. For me, it has a higher chance of breaking downwards. Why? Because we are in a downward flow. We are preceded by a downward flow, long-term moving averages are oriented downwards. Here, the 4-hour tunnel still acts as resistance. So it will be very important to watch if we start to go above this high or below this low and this low. I think we could have an acceleration in one direction or the other. So, that's it for volatility traders, trend traders who are mainly waiting in the short term because there's nothing to do here in the short term. We see that the 1-hour is flat, the 15-minute is also flat. It lacks volatility. See a big difference when we have well-oriented tunnels here downwards, but at least in one direction with a gap between the three moving averages and a wide tunnel. That means we have high volatility. Whereas when we start to have a tunnel that is super thin like this, well, there's nothing to do. And for me, this is the worst scenario for trading in a trend because we are not in a trend. Okay? So, those who like to trade trends, wait for a real market direction with a strong move, moving averages all converging in the same direction, and then there will be opportunities to be found. So, that's it for Bitcoin.
Regarding Ether, globally the same thing. I can move this volume profile forward. Hop, it's a range. A range, and we are forming a smaller range, likewise at this level. And what needs to be watched is, again, the extremes of this range. If we start to break $3080, we would validate here, hop, a W pattern. This would be the second W we've made, because we've already made one here. And this could lead to the formation of a larger structure. In any case, it would be very bullish to go back above the pivot point, above this level, validate the break of the neckline of this W structure, and we could, as I said, validate a W structure. Uh, now, that's if we break at this level, because for the moment, we are in a downward impulse, we retrace, we block at the pivot point, we reject, potentially coming back to make a lower low. In any case, likewise on Ether, if I put moving averages here, well, I would be rather bearish. Likewise, because we have a 4-hour that is oriented downwards, a daily that is also oriented downwards which acted as resistance at this level, and we are below the pivot. Nothing shows me, nothing gives me confirmation that we have a bullish signal with buyers showing themselves. If we start to go back above this level, have a 15-minute crossing the 1-hour upwards, a 1-hour crossing the 4-hour upwards, a price holding the 4-hour, yes, we could have a rally. We could experience a rally and come back to, for example, $3800, it's a possibility. But for the moment, the market is showing me nothing of the sort. And there's nothing worse than anticipating and saying, because I want it, because I hope for it, because my capital is all in Ethereum. And therefore, imagining a scenario that is pleasant to hear, that reassures us, but that doesn't mean it will happen. And many are in this mindset of saying, "Ah, the market will do this." But it's not "it will do this," it's "I want it to do this, but that doesn't mean it will." And many will, yes, convince themselves that the market will do such a move because they reassure themselves and they are convinced. And there's nothing worse because you can then take positions that are not, well, that are simply analyzed based on your emotions and not on a real graphical analysis. For my part, as I say, I don't try to anticipate, I don't try to take the best scenario that suits me, because otherwise, yes, of course, if BTC makes a x10 tomorrow and ETH makes a x10, ah, I'll be the happiest. Now, that's not the most probable scenario, it's even impossible. So, yes, we are in a phase, I react to what I see. And what do I see? What do I have in front of me? What is the market showing me currently? Well, it's a 15-minute that is below the 1-hour, a 1-hour that is below the 4-hour, moving averages oriented downwards. So, we still have reactions to selling pressure upon contact with these moving averages. And if I even look at the pivot points, hop, Ether, there, we have, yes, we rejected exactly on the weekly pivot point. We see, it's also a key level that acted as support and resistance, and well, the weekly pivot points, I don't remember if we saw them for Ether, but here the next one is at $2800, which is globally this low. So there's nothing showing me that the market is bullish for the moment. Maybe that will change in 2 weeks, in 2 days, it's possible, but my goal is always to adapt to what I see, and for the moment, Ether is not great.
So, we can look at the ETH BTC pair, which is still in this sideways phase. To put the ETH Bitcoin pair in context, what is it? It's simply comparing Ether to the value of Bitcoin and seeing who outperforms whom. We see, we have sort of cycles here, a phase where Ether outperforms Bitcoin, from approximately 2019 to 2021, and a phase from 2021 to approximately 2025 where Bitcoin outperforms Ether. Before, there was much more volatility. Now, we see that we have structures with here a W structure at this previous demand zone. And here, we are rather on a small retracement. We are coming back to test the daily tunnel. For me, this W structure is not invalidated at all. Why? Because we have a low, a high, a low higher than the previous one. Whereas here, we just have a V top. So if we do this, that, and then I'll tell you yes, it's bullish because we are going from an upward dynamic to a downward dynamic here. But for me, after a V-top bounce like this, the most probable is to come back to test the 0.18. At a minimum, the 0.382, which has been achieved. Now, generally, we go back to test the 0.118 to set a market top. It can happen to set a market top at the 0.382 level if we have really bearish momentum, but for the moment, that's not particularly the case. We are in the daily tunnel, we are in this sideways phase as well, well, likewise, around early November. Early November, the sideways phase began, and well, it would be good to break it upwards. Now, it's not because we break it upwards that Ether will outperform against the dollar, because I remind you, we are comparing to the Bitcoin pair. This means that if, here, it goes up, we could very well have a Bitcoin that here went down -3%, here -5%, here -15% against the dollar. But against Ether, well, Ether performed better, and therefore Ether went down, for example, -1%, here it went up 0%, here it went down -7%, and therefore Ether will lose value against the dollar but gain against Bitcoin because Bitcoin loses much more value against the dollar. I remind you, we are comparing Ether against BTC. And then, if we start to make a new high here, we can draw a Fibonacci and say that a realistic target would be to come back to at least the 0.5 or the 0.18 Fibonacci level, which would be a good zone. I'm not saying we'll make a new high, but we'll already have a significant bounce with an Ether that is ready to outperform Bitcoin. However, if we lose this low point, we will have a high chance of reaching the neckline.
Regarding the US market, I'm really keeping an eye on it because we are at an ATH. We see here that we pushed very well, we closed above this level. So, we can say it, the S&P 500 is making a new all-time record, whether it's on futures contracts, whether it's on indices here, we see that we made a new high. Now, what I'm going to watch is really how the price behaves above this level. It absolutely must not happen like here where we make a high, we break, and we re-enter. So I'm really going to watch how the market behaves. If we really start to re-enter, it will be a really bearish signal, and we will have a high chance of going back to test lower levels. It wouldn't surprise me after that to take at least -5% to -10%. Now, if the price accepts, it's really here that we have acceptance, that we don't re-enter, that buyers are showing themselves, okay? And that we don't get swallowed up, that we don't lose the moving averages either in the short term. Well, we shouldn't lose the 1-hour tunnel. Well, we'll lose the 15-minute tunnel eventually. Here, the 3-minute tunnel is leading us a bit, a bit of the trend. Okay. Well, here, if we push, we'll come back to test the 15-minute tunnel or the 1-hour tunnel. There's nothing serious about that. But if we start to have a 15-minute crossing below the 1-hour, a 1-hour crossing below the 4-hour, I'll show you what happened last time. Hop, you see, we make, we make here a new ATH. But well, already on H4, we have a wick. Then, we lose the 15-minute, we lose the 1-hour. Top structure, we lose the 1-hour, we retrace strongly. That's not good. That's not logical. Close to a resistance, we break on daily, we see confirmation. At this level, there's no way we should re-enter. If we really make a new ATH, we must push. And if the market re-enters, it means we've trapped quite a few people. Okay? We have buyers who will get wiped out, they will close their positions because they will be underwater. Sellers regain control, and then the market has literally fallen. So, there you go, to follow on that. I'm going to really watch the next few days, see how the S&P 500 behaves.
Regarding the altcoins you asked to analyze, I'm getting my list out. So BGB, where are we? We pumped well. Altcoins, what we're doing isn't great. I'm removing everything. Okay, not great. Why? We had a big pump. Very good. Well, I remember, I spoke about it strongly here. That we were not in a good zone to enter a position. From the moment you have a chart that is vertical like this, it's too late. You take your profits on the way up, but you don't enter a position. Now, on the 15-minute, 1-hour, there's something to do for trend continuation. Here, you put moving averages, when we have pullbacks, when we have a pattern, when we have pullbacks like this, you buy. However, in the long term, you can't make an investment here by saying, I'm entering at 4.5, I have a stop loss at zero, because most people, when you enter spot, you don't have invalidation, you don't have a stop loss. So we assume that your stop loss is at zero dollars. That doesn't give you an interesting reward. And here, we see that we have structured a market top. We lost the $4 level, which was really the key level. We see that we had a liquidity grab here and then we accepted it. We see that we are clearly accepting it now. This is a bearish chart. We lose the moving averages, we lose the daily tunnel. We see clearly that it acted as support. We go below the daily, we go below the 4-hour, the 1-hour is oriented downwards. Here, we are rather in a dynamic to take shorts, to find a downward dynamic to potentially come back to test this zone. This is the previous demand zone where we had a good pump after breaking this point. It's really when we retrace, it wouldn't surprise me to come back to test this level. Now, for some, it will seem impossible. 80%, we've seen altcoins drop -80% quite quickly. And here, we've pumped quite a bit, so it's normal for the market to digest. And coming back to test this zone of $1 to $1.10 is a good zone where we could set a bottom. There is good confluence between this support zone and the 0.886 Fibonacci. Now, we won't do it like that. We'll do this, we'll do this, it's possible. But in any case, if I'm looking to buy BGB, it's in this zone because it's an altcoin, because I need to have professional entries, and I can't position myself here on an exchange token that has pumped so much. No, it's not possible. We went from 0, yes, 0.5 cents. Here, I'll take an average price, I won't take the lowest price because yes, we can go even lower, but from approximately 0.5 cents to about $8. Well, the performance is quite good.
Next, analysis of Ave. So, Ave, there you go. Anyway, on AVE, there is this level that is very important. $115. Hop. And there, we have this resistance zone, we broke it, we came back to pull back, we went up again. Here, we are coming back to test interesting levels to position ourselves against a Fibonacci. By taking this movement, we see that we are coming back to test below the 0.8, 0.786. And if I take this point with this point, we are in our long-term reload zones generally on AVE, everything that comes back below, ah, below $180, that already becomes an interesting zone, and then everything that comes back to $100, that's pretty good. Ideally, we don't want a weekly close below $115 because we would re-enter this previous accumulation zone. Now, to be more precise, I'm going to put a Fibonacci, a Fibonacci, a volume profile. The value area high is $107. So, we don't want to re-enter a value zone. Here, currently, we have a displacement of the value zone. I'm taking my Fibonacci, my Fibonacci, sorry, my volume profile. Very good. Here is our range. Then, we start to break, approximately from here. Hop, I'm putting a volume profile here again. We see that we have a displacement of value. You see the value low here is close to the value area high of our previous volume profile. So, it's a level where we would not want to, we can slightly test this zone, but we don't want to go back below this block, we don't want that. Otherwise, we re-enter a previous accumulation zone, and it's potentially to find a range here and break, and break later. So we would lose, we would lose time logically. We range, we break, we pullback, okay, we go up again, etc. We don't want to re-enter, to accept a previous value zone that was worked on, or where demand overcame supply, because we would still have, well, sellers pushing hard to re-enter a previous accumulation zone. And if we set a bottom here, we can take a Fibonacci and say that already, 0.518, these are good zones to take profits. And if we are really in the long term, we can visit, yes, $430, between $430 and if we really have convictions on ATH to the point of saying it will make a new ATH, which is possible, it's a good project, so, well, it's a good project that generates revenue. There is very strong conviction in the community, in the project. Generally, it doesn't disappoint that much. There is a good outlook. This is important. The community, the outlook it has on the project is important because, for example, I'll take projects like Starknet where they messed up their airdrop. It's not Starknet STRK. [ __ ] have it. Yes. Yes. I think it was listed on Binance from the beginning. Yes. Okay. Uh, no, precisely, don't hold this type of token. Uh, we see that from the launch, they messed up their airdrop. The community clearly shat on the project because the airdrop was literally ruined. Okay. And well, you see, you see what that leads to, -97% in 1 year. Yes. In 1 year, a little bit more than a year. But so, it's important if you have a good community. If a project has a good community, it's not the only thing to consider, but it's very important. And if we push, we can aim for $1000 to $1200, it's possible. But here, it's really in the long term and in a bull market. I don't see Ave going up alone if Bitcoin falls, if altcoins fall. Very, very unlikely.
And I'll finish here with GRT, which, in the end, broke this level. It seems to me that the last time I analyzed GRT, we were around here, where I told you, well, this is the most important level to defend, where technically we had a higher probability of defending it, but it was better to wait for a buyer reaction, and we didn't have a buyer reaction at any moment. Now, there was a pump, but it's not a pump that reverses our trend either. What would have been needed is at least a W structure, and we see that we remain below the 4-hour. The 1-hour cannot get back above the 4-hour. Still selling pressure, moving averages oriented downwards. Here, what do we see? We have a 1-hour. No, yes, a 1-hour tunnel that still acts as resistance, still below the orange tunnel. Here, we are more in a scenario that is interesting for taking shorts and looking for a long-term trend continuation. It's not a chart that makes me want to buy. Absolutely not. The fact of losing a range since 2022 is ugly. And this is an altcoin that will not make a new ATH and will not reach those highs. Very, very unlikely. Very, very, yes, it's that when you break sideways movement like this for so long. Well, it's very unlikely that we'll go back to those levels. At worst, we'll go back to test the pivot point if we really have a rally. But here, all the buyers who are underwater, who have accumulated GRT, who see that GRT is breaking downwards, well, you take a hit if there's a pump, you say I'm selling, and that allows you to sell at break-even. And that creates strong selling pressure. All here, in this whole zone, there are buyers who are stuck. When we start to retrace, we come back to test these levels, well, they say, "Ah, I can get out at break-even or with a small loss, but less significant than what I've experienced." Well, it will be exactly the same. So here, for me, there's nothing to do. Look for shorts in the short term, and if GRT is really an interesting project for you and you want to position yourself for the long term, well, wait to find an equilibrium point at this level, at this level, whatever, but a W pattern that shows you that buyers are present.
So, I'm done. And put in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for a new video.