Transcription
Hello, good day everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review on altcoins, things are moving quite a bit. Bitcoin is not far from breaking its $94,000. And Ether, it's also pushing. We have altcoins that are, well, that are performing well, ICP, Polkadot, APT, Optimism. There you go, there are quite a few. So, we're going to do a big follow-up. We'll see if we can get some trades to trigger on altcoins based on closures. We seem to be pushing, trying to build big bottoms right now. So there you go, we'll focus mainly on that. Before I start, for those who have joined the channel recently, don't hesitate to join the Discord. We have over 2000 members here. We discuss everything, trading, investing, crypto. We share trades, strategies, solutions on DeFi, on a huge number of topics. So if that interests you, don't hesitate to join. You also have here for 1 year, 365 days, I've made a piece of advice per day. So there you go, there's a lot of content on the Discord for those who are not aware. Yes, you're missing out on quite a bit. So if that interests you, it's free. You just have to click on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here with BTC. We had the figures in the United States, notably inflation in line with expectations. So there you go, when it's in line with expectations, it generally remains neutral, not a lot of volatility. We can see clearly here at 2:30 PM, there was a wick, but nothing incredible. It's mainly the US session at the opening that pumped like in recent days. Yesterday was the same. Opening at the time of the US session, we pumped strongly. Friday was the same. Thursday was the same. In recent times, US sessions have been rather bullish. So that's rather encouraging for the markets. It's what we generally want because that's where there's the most volume, that's where there's the most volatility. So ideally, it's better if it's bullish.
Now, Bitcoin is still on resistance, we mustn't forget that. It's retesting. Here, we are in our short reload zone. When we were here, I told you that there was a high chance of returning to test that zone because it's very rare for a VOP, as we've built it here, to allow us to re-enter the entirety of this accumulation phase that was carried out. Now it's a bit in this zone where everything is at stake. We really mustn't reject here because if we reject here and do this, it will be very bearish. We really need to make a new high. However, this time we want a new high with a real break, not a liquidity grab. We can see clearly here, oops, liquidity grab, re-entry. Opposite extremity target, it was achieved. Here, we've made a new ATH again, a new ATH, a new high, we've re-entered, we went to the middle of the range. So, we still have buyers pushing, but we also have sellers making themselves known and who, yes, are waking up at the upper extremity. So, for a bullish signal, really wait for the closures, it's really important. We're not starting from a swing point here to take longs on Bitcoin, we're too high. On altcoins, there might be opportunities. We'll see all that just after. But here, yes, on BTC, it would be good to close above $94,800. We'll have a rather bullish signal and then we could start an upward trend with a bottom that will be formed here. For the moment, we're hitting the monthly pivot point. We have again moving averages oriented upwards. The 3-minute above the 15-minute, the 15-minute above the 1-hour. So on that, it's rather, it's rather good. But on the other hand, we are still at resistance levels. The location is not incredible right now to take longs. However, I will be the first to, if I have pullbacks, 3-minute tunnel, 15-minute tunnel, look for longs like here. For a long time, I told you, I wasn't looking for opportunities because there weren't any. However, when I find momentum and volatility again, I know I'll be looking for longs, and we've had quite a bit of volatility in the last few hours which allows me to have an upward recovery of the moving averages oriented upwards. And in this case, the pullbacks I'll have will be opportunities to position myself. However, ideally, well, I prefer, of course, that it breaks, for the simple reason that I'll have more momentum to accompany this trend. And then there's the long-term investment portfolio, all that, it's better to have bullish markets in the long term. For now, we're not there yet, we haven't broken through yet. We can still have a surprise with a seller awakening here. For the moment, that's not the case. But yes, we are here on a very important zone. For me, if we reject again, there will be a high chance that this time we will break this range. However, if we break, there's a good probability of having a real capture this time, but we need to close above this level. And globally, the invalidation will be quite simple. If we push here and break, we don't want to re-enter the value area high and we can protect ourselves with a stop loss below this high, below this low. Or in that case, if we do that, we can say "Okay, an entry here, validated in this zone because we must not go back below this level and target these resistance zones." That can be, that can be interesting because if we break, we do this, we close here and we do this, passing below these lows. No, that's the end and we'll clearly go much lower. It's always important when you have setups like this that can execute to have invalidation zones. A stop loss, yes.
Now, when I'm on medium to long term like this, I proceed by closures. When I'm on 1-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, yes, I'll have typical stop losses, as you generally put. It will be, there you go, on your exchange, you put a stop loss below the low, and for example, as soon as we pass, even if we wick, we get taken out. Hop. However, as soon as I start to be on swing, on medium to long term, or sometimes I don't even use leverage because on medium to long term, you can very well take positions in spot, yes. I remind you, leverage doesn't allow you to earn more, it simply allows you to tie up less capital. But in the calculation, in the calculation of your position sizes, leverage does not intervene at any point. And I invite you to watch this video, which is a playlist, it should be around here. So in the playlists, don't hesitate, there's quite a bit of content, you can learn quite a bit, which is here, 95% of 95% of traders, it's there, it's there. 95% of traders don't know how to use leverage. I absolutely recommend watching this video, it will be very useful to you because as I tell you, most of you use leverage because you say "Yes, it helps me earn more." No, that's not how you use leverage. Leverage is simply used if you don't have the necessary capital for the required position size, okay? Or if you don't want to tie up all your capital on a trade, but educate yourself on calculating a position size, leverage does not intervene at all. So, that's important.
Now, the break here, what's interesting from a psychological point of view, I haven't talked about it, but it's happening in total silence. We see here, we have rather low spreads. I remind you, what is a spread? It's the difference between the price of the Binance perpetual contract minus the price of the spot contract. These are two different contracts. Perpetual contract, meaning with leverage. Spot contract, you are actually buying the asset, you are actually holding the Bitcoin. The difference between the two allows us to see if there's more interest in one or the other. Currently, we don't have a big interest in futures contracts. What does that tell us? Well, it tells us that we are not specifically in a phase of euphoria, a FOMO phase. And when I look on social media, when I look at the channel views, this is something I've also shared with you, it shows us that we are currently in a phase of disinterest, and it's always interesting to have breaks when the market doesn't pay attention to it, when people don't pay attention to the market. It's better than the opposite, where we break and everyone is bullish. Yes, this time it will break. No, that's not good. Why? Because when everyone is already on board, when all buyers are present, what's left of future sellers? If the train is full, if all buyers have already bought, well, there won't be enough fuel, there won't be enough buyers to push. Okay? These people who no longer follow crypto, they will come back because that's how it is, human psychology doesn't change. They will come back when we have a break, and they will be the fuel and they will be the ones buying late. But that's not our problem, it's theirs.
So, globally on Bitcoin. Nothing more to say about that than to look at the order flow. We see that we're pumping, but not specifically with a big funding rate increasing. We have support here on the CVDs. It's okay, it remains coherent. We don't have bearish divergence or anything like that here, but nothing alarming. We'll have to wait for the closures and the next few hours to see what happens.
Regarding open interest, we have an increase in open interest, which is rather good. When we have an increase in an asset, we want open interest to rise because when an asset starts to rise and open interest stops rising, it's not great. We can see it clearly during this entire upward phase. Hop, as soon as open interest rises, it's a bullish signal. When open interest starts to fall, we see it's a sign of slowing down. When open interest rises, we have an upward trend, hop, it starts to flatten, slowing down. And when it starts to fall, we see it's a sign of a top. Why? Because open interest, you can see it as fuel, it's the opening of positions, whether they are long or short positions. So when open interest rises in a trend, what does that tell us? That on the long side, it's supporting. We have longs that are, well, that are supporting, pushing the market, and we also have shorts opening. And they are also fuel because it creates liquidity, it creates liquidation levels, and automatically we can have a short squeeze. When we have a market that rises and rises, but open interest falls. What does that mean? Well, it means we have less support, fewer positions opening to push the market, and above all, it indicates that we have position closures. And if we have position closures with the price stagnating, it means it's not specifically liquidations. Why? Because when we have liquidations of positions, for example, a short that gets stopped out or liquidated, well, we have liquidation spikes, except here, we see it in this phase, we have a drop in open interest without liquidation spikes in this phase. And what does that tell us? Simply that longs are closing their positions. So here, sellers are making themselves known. It's not great. It's not what we want to see. So as long as open interest is rising, it's rather good. If it starts to weaken, we could have a slowdown, not necessarily a reversal phase, but we could very well have a slowdown. So, in terms of order flow, it's rather good. As I said last time, it's been a long time since we've liquidated anyone. We see it during this phase where the market is rather calm. Whether it's longs or shorts, it's been a while since we've liquidated. So I've been saying it for a while, even during this phase at the end of the year, as volatility was compressed, we could expect a big move. We've already had a small move here. That's not what I call a big move. Perhaps the big move will come here or here, I don't know. That's why you also need good risk management.
So, on the BTC side, regarding Ether, it's a bit behind. Bitcoin is not far from its upper bound, and Ether is not specifically the case, but it's leaning on the middle of the range. We are making a rather good closure. We are currently breaking out of this sideways phase. We absolutely must not go back below $3130 because if we start to swallow the impulsive candle that broke this range structure, it will be quite bearish and we would have a high chance of returning to the lower extremity. So, that's also a point to consider for Ether, but in any case, for me, it has the potential to reach $3400. In any case, we are still in this sideways phase, it hasn't changed, which has been going on for 2 months now. We've moved back above the moving averages. So, that's also rather good. I will also have setups that can trigger when I have pullbacks, as I showed you here. I showed you this trade. Here, I perfectly followed this trend. Well, if I have a new trend, the pullbacks will be opportunities. Tomorrow, I'll monitor the amplitude of my moving averages. If I have a confluence between a daily pivot point and the 15-minute tunnel, for example, and if I have a retracement, if I have a pullback, for example, the price will do this, very well, it will start to retrace. Perhaps I'll have a 15-minute that will do something like this. Hop, we'll come back to lean here. I'll have a confluence with a daily pivot point. Buying reaction. Tac, I enter here, stop loss below the low, and we target 3 to 4 points to this high. There you go, as I was able to do on this trade. See, 15-minute tunnel, daily pivot point, buying reaction during the US session. And here, I took profit on a part, I took profit on a, I don't remember exactly when I managed it. I know I exited completely at the weekly pivot point, but I don't know if I took profit on a part here. No, I think I exited entirely at the weekly pivot point. Well, in any case, we'll have time to see that together. For now, in any case, I'm not specifically taking longs because I estimate we are too high. I'm waiting for a pump and then a retracement.
So, regarding altcoins, we are pumping. We have altcoins that are waking up. We have Bitcoin dominance that is still consolidating. It would be good to make lower lows to confirm that altcoins are ready to wake up. But we still have altcoins waking up right now. For me, how, if I can give you my best advice, how would I position myself on altcoins? There are generally two ways. Okay, we'll see two ways. Either we do intraday trading, we do short-term. And in that case, the goal is to really take the altcoins that are really strong, that stand out. Altcoins that, well, simply have an upward momentum. For example, when we look at which are the strongest cryptos this month, we have PEPE, we have Sui, we have Shiba, there you go. And the worst, well, we have Uni, we have LTC, etc. As if by chance, LTC, which is the weakest crypto, where do we find it? We find it among the weakest cryptos of the week, and we also find it among the worst cryptos of the day. It's normal, it's a crypto that is weak right now. However, if we do the opposite and look, okay, among the strongest, what do we have? We have DOT, we have PEPE, Sui. What do we have this week? Very good. DOT is rather among the strongest, in the upper bound, well, in the upper zone, if we take the middle, PEPE is also good for the day. DOT is also strong. PEPE is good. APT, where is it? Here, it's mid-week, it's good. Here, for the day, it's also good. So we see that what interests us is to understand the relationship between monthly, weekly, daily and to say "Okay, this one is strong monthly, this one is strong weekly, this one is strong daily. Very good, and I'll open the chart and I'll say to myself, this is a crypto that stands out." Now, this is not a trade I took, but it's a trade I'll show you later because there are two ways, as I said, to position yourself. We'll see that later because it's the second, the second way. DOT stands out. Here, we have a rather bullish momentum. And well, we'll do the continuation of the trend. We'll put moving averages, and pullbacks on the 5-minute, 15-minute tunnel will be opportunities to position myself. Here, we are much too high. Okay, the goal is to wait for a retracement, to go back to an area of interest. Hop, you see when we are too high like this, we wait for a retracement. 3-minute tunnel. Here, we are too high. Hop, 15-minute tunnel. And you make your list of altcoins like this that are rather, rather strong. So here we have, we have DOT, PEPE, which is even stronger than DOT, yes. If I recall, we retraced quite a bit on PEPE. Now we're recovering, but for a long time, it was largely, largely stronger. If we start to go back above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour, which we are doing again, and we have the moving averages crossing upwards again, we could also be in this scenario. So, as I said, it's about taking these altcoins. We also have, I didn't note it in the list, but we have XMR, really good in a good dynamic. We see it clearly, the 3-minute is perfectly acting as support. So that's the first way, it's really for those who do intraday, you look at 5-minute, 15-minute, and pullbacks in short-term moving averages, you look for opportunities.
Then, we can rather position ourselves on 4-hour, daily on breakout strategies. Breakout strategies, however, you'll really need to identify altcoins that are structuring potential bottoms with especially an interesting risk-reward. ICP, I like it. We'll wait for the daily closure, but ICP is rather good. You see, it's a bit in the same format as when I positioned myself at this level. We are at an extremely low level, we are at a support level. We even made an all-time low here with a buying reaction. So the location is good. Why did I position myself here? Because I simply had a buying reaction. It was the only altcoin, if I recall, that pumped so much while others were doing nothing. I said to myself, something is happening. I entered with a stop loss below the impulsive candle and I targeted these highs. A very good risk-reward of 5 points. Here, we are also structuring something good. We mustn't swallow too much either. If we start to have a wick that represents 50% of the candle, well, we don't take the trade. That's why it's important to wait for closures. But if we start to close above this level, again, we can have this same type of trade, taking an entry at this level, stop loss below the low. And here, we can already target the 0.382. We have a 3-point risk-reward just to go back to the 0.382. So here, we are rather on breakout strategies with invalidations below the impulses. Because if I have a candle that breaks a level, an impulsive one, and we go back below it, well, globally I want to get out. I don't want to stay in the position. The goal is to position ourselves on a bottom. You see, for example, when I have an impulsive candle that breaks this high and we go back below it. I won't keep my position. We see afterwards, we do nothing, we have good bullish candles that pump quite well. What example can I take? We have a good bullish candle, we go back below it, we let it go, it's dead. There you go, these are good candles with strong amplitude like this. Logically, we shouldn't re-enter them, retracing more than 50% is already a bit bearish, but going back below, swallowing everything, is even more bearish. So we have ICP which is rather good. I saw DOT. Hop, DOT, we still have to wait. But again, DOT, we could be, if we make a new high here, in a good context to look for a long at the time of the break and an invalidation below the low. Why? Because here, we see our upward dynamic. A low, a high, a higher low, a high. A higher low, if we break a new high. An invalidation zone is something that invalidates your hypothesis. Here, my goal is to trade a bottom, trade a break of a level. But globally, my invalidation is if we re-enter, either this level that was broken, that can be a partial invalidation, but especially if we re-enter and break such an important low. Here, we have an inversion of our dynamic if we do that, and we shouldn't count on it, we can do that, but it's very unlikely. The highest probability is to enter into a trend that is rather bearish. So we have DOT, we have ICP. When I look at altcoins that are pumping a bit, like Optimism, we could be here again on bottoms that are being formed. You see, we are going back above this level. Why not enter into a bullish rally with this inverse head and shoulders, which is a reversal structure. We shouldn't expect a x10, of course, but we can have a potential retracement. If I take this high, I draw a Fibonacci, well, just going back to the 0.382 can be a good zone. And here, we are in the perfect example where on Optimism, if we close like this, having an entry at this level, a stop loss below the impulsive candle because if I have a closure, here we're talking about closure, if I have a daily closure below this level, I don't want to stay in the position. I have no interest. Why? Because it will be to go back down, potentially pull back my neckline here, and we won't leave again so quickly. So I don't want to hold a position here that doesn't move and that, well, potentially consolidates for a while. And regarding the take profits, well, we can go to the 0.382 in confluence with this high. There you go, we have a risk-reward of 2 for 1, we can push to 0.5, here 3 for 1. After that, if we have a pump, we can potentially fill this entire imbalance zone, 6 for 1, that's up to you. Or you can take your profits on the rise. What matters is to identify an altcoin that is pumping well. I will automatically, if I enter on altcoins like this, it's on breaks. So automatically, my altcoin needs to break. You see, JUP, I won't enter. EGLD, I won't enter. These are not interesting charts yet, but there might be opportunities if we push a bit. Yes, INJ, it's still too early, but Optimism, the chart is, it's rather good. And the goal is to say "Okay, here we have a decorrelation, we have more demand on Optimism. We shouldn't start saying yes, if it pumps, if it pumps more than the others, well, tomorrow it will retrace or no, that means nothing." We see it clearly here, the strongest altcoins remain the strongest in the week and in the day. And the weakest altcoins, well, remain the weakest in the week and also in the day generally. Okay? And here, we start from the principle that we break. However, we need to have a tight invalidation. For me, given the context, we're not here saying "Yes, it's good, it's the bull market assured, I can put hyper wide stop losses because we're going to pump, we're not in 2024-2025 anymore, we're here in a context where if the market proves us wrong, I prefer to be wrong quickly and invalidate very quickly." Which results in rather tight stop losses.
So, on that side, for my part on altcoins, I prefer to give you my opinion. We are potentially on bottoms on some. I'm not talking about long-term bottoms here, rather daily bottoms, because weekly on Optimism, that's not what will reverse this entire bearish trend. However, it could be this on daily that causes a retracement to structure a larger pattern. That's a possibility. But in any case, there might be something to play for. Of course, always respect your risk management. It's not because we have a break that it's 100% sure. And many of you have blinders on and say "Yes, it's good, if it breaks, it's impossible for it to re-enter. I go all in, I don't respect my management, I take huge leverage." No, always assume that your trade will be a losing one. That way, you'll always have good risk management. I'll leave you with that. I hope it was clear for you. Be careful though, don't start getting excited saying it's certain we've bottomed. Bitcoin is still on resistance, but there might be some setups that can be taken. I'll leave you with that. Don't hesitate to join the Discord for those who aren't already there. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye!