Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Wednesday, October 15, 2025, in front of a slightly mixed crypto map. It wasn't too bad this morning, unfortunately, it's starting to correct. Well, it's Wednesday and like every Wednesday evening from 9 PM to 10 PM, I will be live on the VIP Telegram channel, which is the channel where every morning I send an analysis, I show you a bit what I'm going to do in terms of trades. So don't hesitate to take a look and especially because I analyze all your cryptos on Wednesday evenings from 9 PM to 10 PM. That is to say, you send me all "analyze this for me," "I want this," "I want that." For 1 hour, I do my best, quite simply. So don't hesitate to come, the link is in the description.
Well, for now, let's say the week started not so great. On Monday, $326 million in Bitcoin sales. Yesterday, a little bit of buying, $102 million. Ethereum, it was also $428 million in sales by ETFs. Well, Monday, Tuesday, yesterday, it was bought back a bit, $236 million. The market is still a bit in fear, and we see that, well, unfortunately, today and tomorrow it remains red.
It's a bit of a shame because Jerome Powell spoke last night. We were live for the speech of the chairman of the American central bank, and well, it was a rather positive speech. It was rather in favor of a rate cut, with in addition, the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction. So all of that is quite positive for the medium to long term, let's say. After, it doesn't prevent us from having small, not very pretty fluctuations in the short term. In particular, it doesn't prevent us from retesting the bottom of the wick. Perhaps not the entire bottom of the wick or the entire wick, but in any case, when you have had rapid drops like that, those areas suffer from a lack of liquidity because it was fast, it zooms like that, you see. And markets don't really like leaving such air pockets, liquidity air pockets, zones with very little liquidity, that is to say, where there was little battle, and so they like to search for all of that a bit.
Well, so it's not certain, of course, that the wicks will be tested, but often we see wicks that like to be retested. For now, everything will be dictated by the 200-day moving average at 712. If the altcoins lose the 200-day moving average, you'll have to get out the handkerchiefs and diapers because many will wet themselves again because we will retest the not-so-pretty wicks, you see. And then it won't be pretty. So as long as we hold this 200-day moving average, it will be fine. It can correct for a few more days, no problem. Losing it will be carnage.
For now, it doesn't really breathe bullishness because, well, we see that we are being rejected from the short zone. If we start to break this level, well, there's a chance we're off for the famous "vacc" for the A, for the BB which goes zigzag and ah for the vacc. So we shouldn't start breaking this level too much. Some will call it the McDonald's M, you see. Well, well, we call it a regular flat. After, you call it what you want.
At the level of Bitcoin, my dear, at $111,000 today. Yesterday, well, it was rejected, or rather the day before yesterday, even the day before yesterday, without any respect by the moving averages here, the Tenkan and the Kijun of the Ichimoku system, which is around $115,730. These are strong resistances, which are the average prices over the last 9 and 26 periods of Bitcoin. Well, and so unfortunately, well, it's the return perhaps to the 200-day moving average at $107,361. And the not-so-pretty thing is when we get out the handkerchiefs and diapers. It's if we break this 200-day moving average around $107,000. In that case, there will be the double not-so-pretty effect. If we have a red candle that does this, it's the explosion. The 200-day moving average is a very watched moving average. There are a lot of bots running, and they have it coded inside. So when it closes below the 200-day moving average, you sell because it doesn't look good.
Well, and so we will have the double effect: the 200-day moving average and the widening of the Bollinger bands. And bam, bam, bam, bam. We can go look for long-term supports that we see every Sunday, that every Sunday we do the long-term analysis of weekly supports, like for example the 50-week moving average, the weekly Bollinger band, all that is around $100,000. As long as the $100,000 holds, it's good. If the $100,000 is broken, it's no longer good. That will be the idea. For now, the bears are there, it's not pretty, it's pushing, but you see yesterday Powell, he said good things. Yes, but Powell said good things, but that's for the next few months. You can have fun for two or three weeks on cryptos, but in 3 months, you can be very good. You can spend 3 weeks in the red, but in 3 months you'll be in a magnificent green, you see. So it's not because he says something good that it has to push everything all at once. The traditional market is not doing too badly.
Well, so for Bitcoin, it's when we'll start to say "Oh my god, it's starting to break here, $110,000, $110,000." We'll say, "Well, it unfortunately smells like a return to the bottom of the wick at $105,573 for an A wave, for a small B, and for a small C." On the other hand, if it does that, it can be a regular flat to then go back up.
So, we have quite a bit of liquidation, well, not so much to the north, but a bit to the south. Down to, well, bizarrely, $105,000. $105,000, what is that? It's the bottom of the wick. Well, I'll be, coincidence. So if Bitcoin wants to continue a bit, it will go eat some of that. There's not much, there's about $6 billion. What is $6 billion? You go out, you go out in town, you sit down, you have a coffee, you pay $6 billion, it's nothing, you see. So a little $6 billion to reach $105,000 to reach the bottom of the wick, and then when it finishes its little regular flat, boom, explosion to go eat the main course, $14 billion, cucumber salad with a little bit of bacon. That's what's on the menu in restaurants right now. $14 billion is good, it's the price of a main course, and so it's to eat all that. There's a lot of liquidity up to $124,000. Well, in any case, I think at $124,000, there's about $14 billion, you see.
Now, regarding Ethereum, so a small red candle too. As long as Ethereum holds its Bollinger band at $3,770, it will be fine. If it starts to let go, it will go say hello to its 200-day moving average at $3,161, which is the primary price over the last 200 days. It will say hello to an old friend it left a while ago at $2,853, which is a gap. It's as if it left and forgot to say goodbye to its friend, you see. So when it returns to the village, it will go see him and say, "Excuse me, I forgot to say goodbye before." So, that's a bit of the idea. So gaps, you will often go back to them.
We see that Ethereum was also rejected without any respect by its short zone. We can have the small A, well, the small B, and oh my god, the small C for a small regular flat. Boom, to leave. That remains very possible. What do the liquidations tell us? They tell us that yes, Ethereum could take a little trip towards $3,500. There's about $4 billion to liquidate. Where is $3,500? Well, you see, it's about there. So it's just below the bottom of the wick. That remains very, very possible. If it starts to break $3,893 here, it starts to be not good. Some will say the McDonald's M. Some will say, well, it's the continuation of the regular flat. Well, as a certified and professional analyst, I prefer to say the McDonald's M, that suits me well. And once all that is eaten, well, the validation by everyone, well, it's the rise. Because these regular flats, these are bullish structures. And yes, these are not structures that tell you, "Oh my god, we're going into a bear market, we're all going to die." These are rather structures that tell you, "I'm correcting" to go even stronger. And that's good because there's a lot of liquidity to the north to go and get it at $4,700, there's more than $6 billion.
Now, regarding Solana, Solana, same, a small correction, not very pretty. Solana, as long as it holds the 200-day moving average here at $173, it will be fine. If it starts to get smashed, well, it will go say hello to an old friend of its at $121. Its gap, you see, the same one it left. Well, so it shouldn't break this 200-day moving average. For now, the bears have a bit of momentum, rather good news. On the other hand, rejected twice from the short zone, some would say the Quick M, to cite other fast food chains, there's what? Quick, there's KFC, you get the idea. Well, okay, there's no M, so Quick and KFC, but you have to name brands. Well, and so, and so we have the A, we have the B, and if it continues, boom, we can have the C below the little wick here around $170 to leave. Is this little descent to $170 possible? What do the liquidations tell us? Well yes, they tell us, well, I'll be, there's indeed something to eat here to the south on Solana down to $170, well, you see. So yes, can it do that clearly? Here there are a lot of liquidations. If it does its regular flat structure well, like everyone else, testing the bottom of the wick at $170, it will liquidate all of that. On the other hand, after liquidating all of that, it will turn upwards, it will say, "Well, things are going nicely upwards," and then after the validation of the regular flat, boom, explosion. Because, I remind you once again, these are continuation structures. If these were bearish continuation structures, I would say so. But no, these are not bearish structures.
Well, and regarding XRP, it was rejected by its 200-day moving average around $0.258. It hasn't moved for days. A big support for XRP here is the Tenkan-Kijun duo, which is below the lower Bollinger band. Why? Because given the ultra-nuclear wick that was made, it completely shattered the Ichimoku system, but that's okay. Well, so it's allowed to go look for the Tenkan-Kijun and also a gap at $0.213. At $0.213, it's the last level before hell. That's the idea. It's allowed to go look for $0.213. There's strong support and the gap. On the other hand, if it starts to make a red candle that breaks $0.213, then it's possible to have a sacrificial descent to sacrifice XRP holders to go look for $0.125. And that could sting. Well, its chart is not pretty at all. The short zone is very low because with the gigantic wick, it looks like nothing anymore. But if the short zone were like everyone else's, it would be rejected, and it's the descent, and it will do like everyone else.
Well, so we are especially looking at the $0.213 gap for XRP. Can it go to $0.213? Well yes, it's possible because there's about $200 million here, you see. We have up to $0.219, but it should continue a bit up to $0.213. So yes, it could nibble, nibble, nibble like everyone else. On the other hand, for this one, a regular flat, no, with a wick like that, it's an extremely horrible structure, you see. So we'll put it aside and see what the others do because XRP's structure right now looks like nothing with the nuclear wick it had. Well, we'll keep in mind, like everyone else. If it finishes the regular flat like everyone else, then it will leave to go look for the top once all that is validated.
Regarding the stock market today, well, for now, Wall Street is rather green. The Euro Stoxx is also doing not too badly. We still have a high probability of a rate cut for October 29th. So Powell's speech yesterday was finally well received by traditional finance, which finished yesterday with a green candle and continues today with a green candle, even with a bullish gap. So yes, for now, the stock market is rather bullish from Powell's speech yesterday, but crypto continues to bleed a bit. Can we blame crypto people? Clearly not. Clearly not. Given the flash crash that happened. I don't know if you saw it on social media, I'm not sharing it, you see, because I don't want to be the annoying one. Not happy. Because I don't care, it's the people on Binance. You see it everywhere on social media, boycott Binance, boycott Binance. The guy from Coinbase called for regulators to investigate Binance directly, you see, because the flash crash that happened, unfortunately, Binance is one of the major players in this flash crash, you see.
Well, I won't go into details because I know many of you use Binance, and so if I start digging into Binance, yes, people will say, "Foufi, you don't like Binance, etc." Well, that's not my problem. Just, for those who want to look a bit on social media, you'll see that many very obscure things happened at Binance, you see. And the problem is that what's happening at Binance, and so some are calling for not-so-nice things to be done to Binance. Some are clearly calling not to close Binance, but to go there with an army of inspectors. To look at all of that. Why were so many billions and billions destroyed by the pops at Binance? Well, anyway, if you see all that and you're at Bal, normally that should scare you. After, everyone does what they want.
Regarding this, I like this little... I can't find it anymore, but you understand. We see that Bitcoin is just about $2,200 billion behind Amazon. Money has gone up a lot because money has exploded like gold. Gold at $29 billion. This little ranking, there, I'm looking for the word. And Nvidia still second, very far behind. So here we have eaten Amazon a bit, it's still possible to eat money again, it's still possible. Google, why not, but from Google onwards, it will be tough to eat the red. It will really take a nuclear moonshot. So for now, well, Wall Street is very good, actually very good, because you see it opened higher. You had a bullish gap too. So yesterday, with Powell's speech, the S&P 500 finished in the green, and then a gap from here to there. So there were a lot of sales that happened overnight, you see. So, well.
So for now, well, the stock market is doing pretty well, nothing to be scared of. Everything has gone up. Everything has simply gone up. But there was a very accommodative speech from Jerome Powell yesterday, so it's not surprising. Gold continues its moonshot. How far will it go? Listen, congratulations to those who have a lot of gold. Silver is following too. Coffee is also pushing. The barrel is falling. Well, gas is the same, sugar and wheat are also a bit in hell. Everything that is crypto-related is not very pretty, unless you are a miner. If you are a miner like Marathon, boom, you're pushing, like Hunt, like Digital Galaxy, like Riot, CL Park, you're a miner, you're doing well. Why? Because, well, they are right. They are also surfing the AI wave. You know very well for months, it's the AI wave. All governments want to unlock thousands of billions of trillions of dollars for AI. They all want to be the first with AI. Well, what do they want us to do, like Terminator, you see? Or Connor? No, I'm Foufi, you see. No, it's the idea of, well, anyway. And so they are surfing the wave because they are doing Bitcoin and also AI because, well, they will mine, it's normal.
Well, and well, on the other hand, some are unhappy with Coinbase, which got smashed, MicroStrategy, which got a bit smashed. Well, so that's a bit less pretty, clearly. Regarding the bond market, there's a rush for Treasury bonds as if there were going to be 50,000 rate cuts. Well, but listen, we see that anyway, between gold exploding upwards, which you see here, and US and European Treasury bonds, look at this. Explosion of purchases here in the bond market with yields crashing. Well, that's rather positive, you see. Well, because what could hurt us is high yields. You see, it means that instead of going to risky markets, they will go to high yields, the bond market. On the other hand, if yields crash to the ground, well, imagine, you have money, and they tell you, "Come to the bond market, you'll earn 1%." Well, it's not 1%, it's 4%. Well, and I'm exaggerating to give an idea, but you'll say, "Well, I'm not going for 1%, I don't care." So you'll go where you have yields. So when there's a rush to the bond market for purchases of bonds, US Treasury bonds or any bonds, and yields crash because, well, inversely correlated, it's perfectly normal, well, that's good news because then people will look for yields elsewhere, like the stock market or crypto.
So, that's not too bad, that's not too bad. So the 10-year is exploding upwards, the 20-year is exploding upwards, the 30-year is exploding upwards due to purchases, not yields. Okay, that's rather good, and the arc is a bit in the red. So it's a shame because there's a cocktail that would make cryptos push. Unfortunately, cryptos are in the red, and for now, the stock market is pushing, that's the little cocktail. So, apart from gold continuing to moon, where you can ask yourself questions, like, "Be careful, though, some are on the defensive, it's normal, with everything that's happening, the last tariffs, the etc., it's such a mess, with all the conflicts, that you say, well, people are going into gold not to seek big returns, even if, well, there's the FOMO, there's the FOMO too, gold is pushing. Oh my god, I'm going, I'm going. Well, but theoretically, you don't go into gold to seek 12% annual returns. You see, you'd rather go into stocks for that.
Well, and apart from gold pushing, for now, it's rather going in the right direction. The dollar is falling, bond market yields are falling, and the stock market is green, that's good, but for now, it's not really working for our cryptos. It bodes well for the medium to long term, though. What I mean by that is, perhaps cryptos can correct for a few more days, even a week or two. Everyone can finish their little regular flat before moving on. So we can have a last little C that dips, that can reach $100,000, or even a bit lower. On the other hand, we see that around, the finance ecosystem is quite good, you see, and conducive to the medium to long term being rather good, you see. That's what I mean by that.
Well, we'll follow all of that. We'll meet tonight on the VIP Telegram channel for those who want it, for the little analysis. I analyze everything you want. Tonight, you are the bosses, and I am the slave. I'm sending kisses and we'll see you later on the VIP channel. Ciao. Ciao.