Transcription
Well, excuse me. Lost my voice already in the first word. Hello everybody. It's Friday. It's been a rough week. It's been a rough October. In fact, we're calling it Rectober now. And it's the last day. In fact, the markets will close in about four or three and a half hours from my time based on UTC. And it's been a little bit rough. We're going to talk about why Bitcoin is stuck and a ton of other goodness that's not stuck. So, do not lose faith, everybody. Everything is still alive and well. And this one's called the October Hangover. Big shout out to the mods, Teeny Tesla, Shauny K8, and everybody else. And of course, this is never financial advice, just a guy on the internet. And a big thank you to Patreon. Jack Deion says, "So many distractions. You kept me on the straight and narrow and your knowledge has saved my butt. That's why I'm on your Patreon and no plans to go anywhere." Well, thank you.
Yeah, it's uh, you know, just want to say something about markets for a second. Markets are difficult, very, very difficult. So, if you are winning and you do well, don't get complacent because they'll be prepared to rip your face off at any time. So with that, let's get into some sentiment. We are still full of fear. The crypto market is at 29. Stock market is at 34. And despite that, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ and the Dow keep making new all-time highs. And everybody's afraid. Nobody understands. It's, it's a very weird situation.
But let's get into Bitcoin first. Rectober is down 4%. Supposed to be up an average of 14%. And we're down four. So, it's been weird. And we're going into Movember, which is historically the best month of the year for everything. Is it going to be different this time like it has been for all the other things that we've been talking about for years? We hope not. We hope it's the same this time. It would be nice to have a little bit of Moonvember action. So, again, three and a half hours to go. Let's see where we go. Keep your fingers crossed. Again, we got rate cuts. We got QE. We got trade deals. A lot of, lot of good tailwinds. What we don't have is a US government that's open. We're just putting a clamp on liquidity. Yeah. I wrote yesterday on Patreon, it's like being at a party when the booze is cut off. There's no liquidity. There's no liquid. There's no booze. Therefore, nobody's having a good time. Nobody's dancing. Nobody's partying. There's no volatility. Nothing's happening. And that's kind of where we are right now.
But despite all that, Bitcoin ETFs were pretty bad this week. They dropped uh $600 million, which is a bit of a dip. And it's funny because when Bitcoin falls, then Try sells, then Bitcoin goes up and then Try Five buys again. It's like they're always at the wrong end of the trade. But looking for the month of October, October, it's still extremely positive. We're still up $3.61 billion despite being down $600 million. So basically, it was over $4.2 billion up until this week. The big question is, everybody's asking like, it's like, hey, what the hell's going on? You got Michael Sailor buying and you got the ETFs buying and the price is going down. What's going on? So we'll try to answer that right now.
Again, the answer is this is the answer why Bitcoin is stuck. The long-term holders are selling again. And uh since July 1st, long-term holders have been selling their coins. They, uh, let me see, have distributed about 810,000 Bitcoin and their bags have decreased from 15.5 million to 14.6 million. And even under this selling pressure, however, Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high twice, which is bizarre since the 1st of July. And the current demand is absorbing the long-term holders' supply. And as long as long-term holders continue to take profits, however, the upside could remain limited. And that's the weird situation we're in. And a lot of people do believe as well that the long-term holders, yes, they are selling, but they're also pumping their money into an ETF for inheritance reasons, security reasons, etc., to avoid $5 wrench attacks. So, we covered that a week or two ago. So, that could be what is happening.
But the good news is long-term holders have sold kind of a big chunk. This is another view of that from Bitcoin Magazine Pro. It's the Bitcoin long-term holder supply. And black is the Bitcoin price and blue is how much the long-term holders dumped. Now, if you go back in history and look at this chart carefully, you'll see the big dips. That's what we're looking for here. We have one in 2014. We've got one in 2018. We got one in late 2021 and we have one again in mid-2025. Huh. What happens next? Well, it depends. This time again is different. Normally when they get to that level, Bitcoin price can fall. So, it typically signifies the beginning of a bare market with a couple of exceptions. 2021, there was a big dip, but then we had a double top, which was a manipulated cycle. You can toss that away. But the others typically signify when the long-term holders' supply falls in a big dip like this. It means a bare market could be starting. But you could also argue we've had three of them this cycle again. Early 2024 after the ETFs launched, mid-2020 or early 2025 and then we are having one again. So it's, it really is all over the place. And you have to remember as well, long-term holder somebody who holds Bitcoin more than 155 days. So, it's not tragic, not too bad a situation.
And another Bitcoin news, Norway flip-flop. Nordic bank Norda is now offering Bitcoin ETFs to its customers starting in December. Again, yet another on-ramp, another financial institution giving their customers exposure to Bitcoin. All the big banks now in the US are doing it. Uh, what's interesting is Nordia previously banned all employees from owning Bitcoin in June. H I'd like to speak to the manager, please. You banned the customers in June and now you're opening it up six months later? Oh well, it's okay to make mistakes and admit you're wrong and fail fast. So, shout out to the team in Norway.
And one other item, too, which is also very important for things like adoption and all the goodness that happens. But back in the year 2000, as you can see from this chart as well, there was only two nation states that were mining Bitcoin. Fast forward to today, there's 12. And they are mining in force as well. Places like Japan, Kenya, even I think France is on the list. Russia, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, Dubai, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina. What do all these places have in common? Lots of cheap energy. So they should do it. It's a no-brainer for these nations. That's why it's weird that Norway doesn't mine Bitcoin. They got lots of hydroelectric power. Anyway, Nordia Bank, maybe you can fire up a Bitcoin mining company. Who knows? Just think it out loud here. But this is great. This is great for adoption, nation state adoption, and that's what we want. And we're still early. I wonder what this map will look like in another 5 years. There could be 30 countries that are mining Bitcoin for themselves.
Let's switch gears to crypto real quick and run through this. First of all, um, you know, when you see the totally shared a funny tweet this morning, which I think I retweeted or liked, I can't remember, but it was like the FUD, the FUD, the FUD, the FUD, the FUD keeps coming, but now the only piece of FUD that people have had for years is, oh, Solana keeps going out, outages, outages. It hasn't had one in nearly two and a half years if I'm not mistaken. But now 21% of all validators run what's called Frankenancer. Frankenancer is a brand new complete codebase that runs better, faster, safer. And because it's completely rewritten in a new language, there will be no bugs over from the other language. So the odds of Frankener and the core and all the other versions that are flying around going down are now zero. Can't happen. So, for the people still clinging to that FUD from nearly three years ago, oh, it's already already out all the time. No, they're just idiots that don't do their research. And I'll be firm on them because I'm sick and tired of them.
Anyway, Fidelity as well jump into the Frey. They filed their amended S1. Uh, you know, you got Bitwise in there, you got Rex in there, Grayscale's in there now, and Fidelity joins VANC in its outstanding S1 filing, trying to get in there as quickly as possible. Remember Fidelity manages I can't remember $5 trillion, $6 trillion and now exposing all their customers to this ETF will be huge. In fact, just last week they listed Solana 2. So people that have a Fidelity account, $5.8 trillion. There it is. I knew it was between five and six. Uh, makes Solana more accessible to all US brokerage customers. Again, just like Nordia Bank allowing their customers now to buy crypto, Fidelity customers can now do the same thing as well.
And DPIN is taking off. That's the decentralized physical infrastructure. Of course, it's all, it's a Solana thing pretty much, but names like Helium and Render and Hivemapper and Uprock are really smoking it. And this is the month over month growth is insane. Uh, again, early stages, but typically I think collectively earned over two and a half million for the month of September, breaking the 2 million for the first time. And now the S-curve begins. These are real-world platforms doing real-world stuff and making money. So it's impressive to see.
A little bit on real-world assets. Speaking of real-world stuff, real-world assets on Solana did grow 41.9% quarter over a quarter to nearly $700 million. And we have Bidd in there from BlackRock, $175.2 million as well as USDY stablecoin. A lot of this would be stablecoin. But where a lot of the action is also happening for Solana is on tokenized stocks where a lot of trading is happening.
Speaking of stocks, here come the stocks. A good week despite all the fear about USA and China and everything else and the rate cut and the dip after the rate cut. It ended up being excellent. Amazon really good earnings up over 10%. Nvidia up over 10%. Nvidia up over $5 trillion in market cap. Mad to think. Apple up three and a half percent. Google up nearly 10%. 10% seems to be in fashion nowadays. And Tesla up 2.18%, Broadcom up 5% all across the board. Things are looking pretty good out there. Meta down 12%, Oracle down 8%. Those two got hit. Microsoft flat as well. Again, a lot of the companies had really good earnings, but there was some concern with Meta. I covered yesterday about some of the free cash flow hit and Microsoft as well with some other things. But despite that, these companies are still cooking. Again, AI is very real. And I remember doing a while back a video about the fact that the total addressable market of AI is far bigger than that of money and things like Tesla, TAM is far bigger than that of Bitcoin. And I was laughed out of the room. But anyway, by the Bitcoin maxis. Here's a simple example of exactly how that is. This is Bitcoin versus Nvidia chart. You can see here, not only is Nvidia nearly two and a half times the market cap of Bitcoin and Bitcoin is global money, but that gives you an idea of how big Nvidia is. But the other thing you got to notice is rate of change, which is most important. These two had the same market cap for the longest time, all 2013, 2014, 2016, 2018. Uh, little bit of a difference. Bitcoin was bigger in 2020, 2021 and then 2022 they were same and since then AI has taken off. That was the ChatGPT moment for Nvidia and it's gone to the moon. So there you are. AI is bigger than money. It's all you need to know.
And speaking of money, wouldn't it be nice to have one of these? This is the new Tesla Roadster. And Elon Musk was on the Joe Rogan podcast. It just launched two hours ago. I got part the way through it as I was working, listening, but Elon teased a prototype demo before the end of the year potentially with a crazier than anything James Bond has ever driven to fulfill Peter Thiel's flying cars wish. And it goes far beyond what cars typically have done. It will include some crazy technology and guaranteeing a demo, a launch like no other. So car fans around the world, all the people with their $2.5 million dollar Bugattis, etc., they'll be they'll be checking out this thing, which is only cost less than a tenth of that price, but it'll do something extraordinary. We don't know what it is. A lot of ideas around downforce, suction propellers, side boosters for cornering. I don't know. It's going to be wild. Anyway, and I cannot wait to see this thing on the Nordifa. For those who know what that is, drop a comment below. Any car fans in the audience? And Morgan Stanley again reiterate their $800 price target in Tesla. They are the highest on Wall Street. And this guy, I forgot Adam's first name earlier in the week. I had a brain fart during the stream, which can happen. I got the Jonas piece right. I said Jonas, Jonas, not Jonas Brothers. No, it's Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley, highest on Wall Street. And he gets it. He knows what's happening. So shout out to him.
And another cool, well actually it's a scary chart, but it's a cool chart for the FSD use case. This is uh a list of the amount of accidents per country in the year 2024. USA tops the charts, nearly 2 million accidents. Japan number two, 540,000. Austria number three. I was surprised by Austria because I used to ride a little motorbike in Austria and uh I always thought they were very good drivers. Anyway, maybe it's the snow. Who knows? Anyhow, but the accidents per million people is the interesting thing. And you see nearly 6,000 accidents per million people, million drivers. In Japan, 5,500. Austria 4,000. So these are the countries. Belgium is there. Portugal, Germany, Germany, 3,812 accidents per million people. And much of that's probably because of the Autobahn. But anyway, uh there will be a time and a place when FSD comes to these countries and it'll make their roads a lot safer. And in fact, in the future, I believe you won't be able to get car insurance unless you have things like FSD in the car.
And final note as well, a little stock news. Bit mine Tom Lee now has 2.8% of all ETH. He just bought another I don't know, $140 million the other day. They want to try to get to 5% ownership and we'll see where they get along. It's interesting as well because Bitmine when they first came out, they had a NAV premium of 3x or something. Now it's 1.03. So it's come all the way down just like all the other proxies too. It's not a, it hasn't been a good October for proxies by no stretch of the imagination and we track that every day.
Let's talk about AI and markets. And by the way, I'll reiterate again. A lot of people still um, they know this is, they see me as primarily a crypto guy, but I'm an alpha guy and I've been ever since I started this channel, it's been alpha, whatever form it takes, but predominantly Bitcoin, Tesla, crypto, AI, early stages, and that has not changed. But a lot of people are asking for more AI content. And I was doing it anyway. But people, people are now so sick of other things not moving. They want to, it's like flies that want to go to the flowers with all the pollen. That's where AI is right now. It's a long-winded way of me trying to introduce this.
Anyway, AI cloud backlog explodes. Speaking of Microsoft earlier, you can see their backlog here is nearly $400 billion, $368 billion. You've got yellow is Amazon, $195 billion. That had really good earnings, too. And Google, $108 million. And on top of that, you got a company called Oracle, they have nearly half a trillion as well, $500 billion in black backlog. And this is not slowing down. These are actual commitments to buy compute from entities. And because they have so much backlog, what are they doing? They're trying to fill that backlog and they're doing that by insane capital expenditures. They are still going vertical. And big tech beta alpha, Amazon and Microsoft are spending like there is no tomorrow and it's still not enough to satisfy the demand. So for the bubble people out there, not yet. We'll keep an eye on it though.
And Elon did come out and give us some good news about AI and abundance as well, make us all happy. He said AI and robotics will deliver universal high income, everybody. Utopia, UHI. I always talk about UBI, universal basic income, but now it's universal high income. Get ready for that. Hope he's not overly optimistic, but AI ends traditional jobs, you know, 9-to-5, etc. He also believes things like apps and operating systems will be gone in 5 years and we'll be shifting to an AI generated everything, content, video calls, robots, etc. We'll be boosting GDP. We will eliminate poverty and debt via abundance and everybody gets whatever they want, any good and service, fostering human creativity, virtual worlds for meaning. But there are risks. There are risks that, you know, uh, I won't talk about some of the risks, but governments getting involved, maybe nuclear wars and bad AIs and lack of truth and openness and honesty that could all derail everything. So, let's hope, let's hope he's right.
And uh, another big thing he did talk about too is this is a story I think it's from Ars Technica about the potential of autonomous assembly in space of data centers. And Elon Musk says, yes, we will be doing this. That means scaling up Starlink V3 satellites which will have speed laser links to be able to handle data center processing. Now I'm not sure. I haven't taken the time to study cooling of GPUs. Maybe it's not an issue in space. Maybe space is plenty cool for that to happen. Uh, power, solar, that's easy to fix. Uh, transmission of data, that's already done with SpaceX. This will be interesting. It would be very, very interesting.
Little bit of macro news before we jump off. First of all, this is a scary, scary chart. This is from uh Eurostat and the blue line is the amount of European exports of cars to China and the red is the European imports of cars from China. You can see one of them here is falling off a cliff in freefall. And much of the manufacturing vehicles is in place like France and Germany and they need to wake up fast because this is not good. China was the biggest market for these car makers for the longest time. Another kind of scary wakeup call on the macro side. I believe Europe needs more big tech companies and less regulation.
And you can see here this bubble chart is the red things are high-tech companies. You got your Microsoft, Nvidias and the black are all other consumer goods etc. like Tesla. They make rubber basins for sinks. Kidding. It's an AI company but it's miscategorized but that's okay. But the EU bubbles, you can see they're very, very small. And these are all companies that started in the last 50 years with at least $10 billion plus of market cap. So Europe doesn't have enough of them and enough big ones as well, which is a big problem. So hopefully Europe can deregulate, maybe shut down the the centralized organization of Europe and become independent countries again and become ultra competitive and do your own thing. Okay? Because Bill Gates said, "You don't have to worry about the green new scam anymore. It's over. Everything's going to be fine."
And finally, it's Halloween, everybody. I forgot to get dressed up. I've been so busy. H It's Halloween. Normally, I get dressed up. I didn't this year. Too busy. That's just nature of the beast. Anyway, I said for the longest time, anybody who knows me and they had a kid or two back in 2017, 2018, I always stressed the importance of whole coinership. Get one coin per child. And here we are from Satoshi Silver. Only one Bitcoin per child. Come and get them. But yes, back when Bitcoin was $3,000, it was very easy to get one Bitcoin per kid. Maybe it's still a lot of money to turn on if you've got two kids, $6,000, but just having that and sticking that away is quite important. And did any of my friends listen to me? No. Not one of them. There we go. That's it. And then what? Seven years later, they call me up. Is it too late to buy Bitcoin? It's always the way. It's always the same way. Yeah, it's too late.
Anyway, hope you all got a little bit smarter today. I want to thank Joe Biden's daycare, Angel Black, DBF430, Dog One, Buckhorn, Shaun D, TN, and K8. Happy weekend. See you all tomorrow. And uh, let's check on the Bitcoin price. See if it's normally what happens on a Friday after the stock markets close. Bitcoin pumps, but it's up,00. We'll take that. Not a lot, but it's not down, which is also good news. Anyway, thank you all for coming. Have a good night. Bye-bye.