Transcription
Week nine is here, and it's time for the wide receiver tier list where I go through my top 40 wide receivers in fantasy football this week and help you guys set your lineups. While we go through the tier list, we'll talk about some of my favorite picks over on Underdog. But let's waste no more time, and let's go through the "Will They Play" tier and the only real guys I would say that are questionable to play this week.
Again, we just got to get the elephant out of the room first and foremost with the outs. Travis Hunter, Jerry McLaren, obviously not going to play in this game. Travis Hunter, very unfortunate. I was very excited about him, a top 20 wide receiver for me coming into the week. He does get announced late in the week that he will be placed on IR. So hopefully for Travis Hunter's sake, we do see him back. Again, a little bit pessimistic on that side given the Liam Con quotes, but as you guys know, I am, uh, about the single most invested person when it comes to Travis Hunter. So that was a big blow to me. And then Terry McLaren, like I said, going to be missing this game. We'll talk about Debo Samuel later in the video.
But the other guys that are questionable here: Cooper Kupp. He went from full practice to limited practice to did not practice on Friday. Usually, when we see that type of trend, it tends to be a wide receiver not playing on Sunday. So, we'll see what ends up happening. It is the Sunday night game, again, 8:20 p.m. kickoff against the Washington Commanders. But if you were planning on having Cooper Kupp, I would go towards a pivot option. Even if he does play, fringe top 40 level option. But realistically, you should have better alternatives than Cooper Kupp in your lineup.
The other ones here, Rasheed Shahed and Christian Watson. They are both trending to play. You will be hearing more about them later in this video.
But on another note, we also have four teams on bye this week: the Cleveland Browns, the New York Jets, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No Amon-Ra St. Brown, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Jerry Judy. None of those guys are going to be available for your lineups. Don't be the doofus that leaves them in.
Moving on to tier number one, and as you guys can see on the screen, a guy that makes up the tier of his own: Puka Nacua of the LA Rams is the undisputed number one wide receiver in fantasy. And he's averaging the most points per game amongst any wide receiver that's played over four this season. The only guy actually averaging more straight up has been Rasheed Rice. But also, when you contextualize the game that Puka Nacua left early, nobody even sniffs his 26.8. I mean, we're talking about in that stretch when he was averaging 26.8 points per game, he was getting a 35.3% target share for one of the single best offenses in the league. Five straight 20-plus point games to start the year. When he's on the field, pretty simple. He is a tier of his own and he's a threat to be the 2021 Cooper Kupp, the 2019 Christian McCaffrey. He has a legendary level upside and no other wide receiver is at his level.
Moving on to tier number two, we have what I would classify as the other high-end wide receiver ones: CeeDee Lamb, Jackson Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rasheed Rice, and Justin Jefferson make this tier up.
We'll start at the top here. My wide receiver two on the week: CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys. Absolute smash of a matchup here. Number one over/under of the entire slate at 53 and a half. 28 implied Cowboys points at home. You don't get much better here. The Cowboys offense, it was embarrassed last week against the Denver Broncos. This is the bounce-back of all bounce-back spots against Arizona. And with CeeDee Lamb on this year, yeah, you look at it, okay, only 18.7 points per game overall, but at the same time, with this game environment, we have the opportunity for his first big-time spike week this year. We haven't seen the 30, 35, 40-point outing from CeeDee Lamb yet. And I do think that could be the case against Arizona. Again, I already mentioned just how smash of a game environment it is. The Cardinals represent a huge opportunity for him to get on the stat sheet here. But at the same time, we know he's still one of the highest floor wide receivers in the league. Five-plus receptions, 70-plus receiving yards in each healthy game this season. And this is the week where he scores the 30-bomb. In my opinion, this is the week where everybody's reminded just how good CeeDee Lamb is, just why he was a top four level pick in the majority of your leagues, which is why I'm smashing the "higher" on his 15.45 projection over on Underdog as the first pick in our pick 'em this week.
Moving on to number three, we have Jackson Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks on the road going up on Sunday Night Football against the Washington Commanders. And JSN this season has been a monster. 22.1 PPR points per game. And the Seahawks are implied for nearly 26 road points in this outing. Jackson Smith-Njigba, true number one wide receiver, and he has commanded nine-plus targets in five of his seven games this year. He is the engine of this passing offense, and I expect them to have their way against a bottom 10 Washington secondary.
Next up at wide receiver four, we have Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals going to play the Chicago Bears at home in this game. Bears three-point road favorites, but Cincinnati is still implied for a respectable 24.25 points in this game. There is a big elephant in the room though with Joe Flacco. He is expected to start, but we know he's been dealing with an AC joint sprain. AC joint sprains tend to linger, and it is on his throwing arm. However, if anybody's going to get peppered in this game for a quarterback that can't really stretch vertically, that needs to rely upon the layup, it would be a guy like Ja'Marr Chase, and he has been the layup in this offense. 64 targets in his last four games, four straight games of 20-plus PPR points. He's been as consistent as he's ever been, but at the same time, I do have to demote him a little bit with just how hurt Joe Flacco actually is.
Next up at wide receiver five, we have Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions going at home to play the Minnesota Vikings in a divisional matchup. The Lions 28 and a half implied home points in this game. And as we've seen, Amon-Ra St. Brown has also been the engine of this offense. Like Jackson Smith-Njigba, he is the true number one wide receiver, 32% of the yearly targets, and he is the wide receiver four with 21 PPR points per game. He's the alpha on one of the single best projections on a week-in, week-out basis. And we've also seen when the team gets in the red zone, when they're inside the 20, Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 38% end zone target share despite Goff only throwing 30 pass attempts in one of his seven games. We are looking at an alpha, and we're looking at one of the best offenses in the league. He's going to be a consistent week-in, week-out high-end wide receiver one.
And at number six, we got Rasheed Rice. The guy that if you were to just squint and look at the overall points per game, again, also keep a factor. He's only played two games, but he's actually the wide receiver one in terms of PPR points per game. He is scoring 24.3 points per game in the first two games back this season. And the Chiefs, man, they have their fastball. He is the number one option in this offense. He is the engine of their passing attack ever since he returned to the lineup. And we get a great opportunity in this game environment. Over 27 implied KC points and the second highest game total of the entire slate. And with Rasheed Rice, he has proven touchdown equity in this offense. He scored five touchdowns in his last six games played. And he is quite literally the new Michael Thomas. And because of that, I will be taking the "higher" on his rushing plus receiving touchdowns over on Underdog.
And then wide receiver seven, in the flip side of that Vikings-Lions game, we have Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings. 10-plus targets in each of his last four games. And while the passing volume was low when J.J. McCarthy was starting in the first two games, I do think a couple factors have to play in. I mean, first and foremost, are we really able to judge J.J. McCarthy off his two career NFL starts thus far? We're acting like it's the status quo. Let's just see what the young guy has, man. Like, honestly, people are making proclamations. People are saying he's completely inept. He can't play quarterback. It's been two games, guys. Let's just see what it ends up materializing as. And number two, like, why are we acting like Carson Wentz was the big, huge quarterback upgrade for Justin Jefferson in this lineup? Carson Wentz was playing with a torn labrum and was playing with a torn shoulder for the last couple of weeks, and nobody had an issue with Justin Jefferson. With Justin Jefferson, you know what? You're getting one of the best wide receiver talents we have ever seen in the NFL and arguably the number one wide receiver talent in the league. There is a concern we didn't really see much passing volume with J.J. when he was healthy, but let's just give the kid the benefit of the doubt and let's see if he can feed his number one wide receiver in what should be a really good game script here. The Lions eight-point home favorites in this game. Vikings probably going to be operating from behind, and I do think Justin Jefferson has the opportunity for a ton of volume if we see J.J. McCarthy throw the ball 30, 35 times in this matchup.
Moving on to tier number three. This is what I classify as the wide receiver one-twos. Number eight, George Pickens. Number nine, Davante Adams. Number 10, Romeo Doubs. Number 11, Drake London. Number 12, Zay Flowers, who played on Thursday night. Number 13, Michael Pittman Jr. Number 14, Ladd McConkey. And then closing off the tier, we have at number 15, Nico Collins of the Houston Texans.
We'll start at the top with my Dallas Cowboy, George Pickens. He has fallen back down to earth. If you just look at the splits with and without CeeDee Lamb, it's clear as day that the presence of CeeDee Lamb limits the overall volume we have seen from George Pickens. 12.7 points per game with Lamb on the field versus 24.2 when he's been out. But I do think part of that has been touchdown variance. Like in the four games George Pickens has played with CeeDee Lamb, he has only scored one time versus five touchdowns in the four games without Lamb. I do think Lamb plays a significant factor, but in a 53 and a half over/under game with the Cowboys offense looking the way it has been, we know George Pickens has touchdown equity and I do think he can cross pay dirt in this matchup. He has the opportunity, 43% end zone target share on the season, and he has posted a 20-plus% target share in each of the last two games since CeeDee Lamb has returned. I think this is a bounce-back spot and I think the Cowboys are going to light up the scoreboard this week.
Week nine. This week I have Davante Adams of the LA Rams going up against New Orleans at home on the year. 15.7 points per game for Davante Adams along with a 62% yearly share of the Rams end zone targets. When they get inside the five, inside the 10, inside the 15-yard line, we are seeing Matthew Stafford target Davante Adams in the end zone. And overall, he's had a 27% target share this year. If you just look at the usage, he is posting a wide receiver one level share of the offense. It's just when you look at it in the context of next to Puka, it's clear who the one is on this team. But I would argue that the offense is so concentrated that it doesn't matter, man. He might be a number two wide receiver, but he is getting wide receiver one-level usage, and the Rams are 14-point favorites in this game. Sure, there is risk. Maybe the Rams go up early, we see a positive game script for the running game and for Kyren Williams, but I do think Davante Adams has enough equity in this offense to be able to pay off nonetheless.
But moving on to wide receiver 10, we got Romeo Doubs of the Chicago Bears going up against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. And he was limited with a heel injury all practice this week, but he was taken off the injury report and he is ready to go for Sunday. With Romeo Doubs, sure, a couple down weeks, week six and seven, but he has been a top 20 weekly wide receiver in five of his seven games this year. And he has very, very strong efficiency metrics. He's a number one ex-wide receiver for Chicago offense and implied for nearly 28 points. And this game has the third highest over/under of the entire slate with the Cincinnati Bengals. They literally overtook the Dallas Cowboys as the worst defense in EPA per play against the pass. Fire up your Bears. They should shred the secondary.
Next up at wide receiver 11, we have Drake London of the Atlanta Falcons going up against New England this week. And while he did miss week eight with a hip injury, he was removed off the injury report and he is ready to go for week nine. And I don't know what to make of Drake London this week because on one hand, the Patriots defense, they've been very good. Christian Gonzalez, he is an absolute issue on the other end for that Patriots defense. But although it's been a season of ups and downs for London in this Falcons offense, he is averaging 15.8 points per game and he has a 31% yearly target share. He's too good of a player and he's simply too involved to completely fall flat here, and he profiles into yet another 10-plus target workload. He has commanded 53 targets in the five games Michael Penix has started the season. Some concerns with the matchup, but he has a wide receiver one-level workload.
And then wide receiver 12. We had Zay Flowers who played on Thursday Night Football. Five catches, 64 yards, no receiving touchdowns, 11.4 PPR points. We saw Lamar Jackson throw four touchdowns in this game. Unfortunately though, none of them ended up in Zay Flowers' hands. 11.4, pretty solid outing, but maybe you're hoping for more against Miami.
Now, wide receiver 13, we have Michael Pittman Jr. of the Indianapolis Colts averaging 15.7 PPR points per game this year. And the Colts offense, it has been the best in the NFL so far. We've really started to see Michael Pittman emerge as the clear number one wide receiver on this team. He's been the touchdown guy, you know, inside the 20, inside the 10. This is the guy they've been throwing touchdowns to all year, but he's starting to see the usage match wide receiver one-level production, 28-plus% target share, and 20-plus PPR points in each of his last two games. With the Steelers, their outside corners have struggled this year. They've been beaten to a pulp. We saw what Ja'Marr Chase did to them on Thursday night a couple weeks ago, and they are bottom 10 in EPA per play against the pass this season. With Michael Pittman, we are set up for yet another smash week, and maybe we should be talking about him as a top 12 to 15 option moving forward if he continues to smash. With that being said, he's been playing too well. He's way too involved. So, give me the "higher" on his receiving yards at 53 and a half. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw an 80, 90, 100-yard outing for what's been the clear number one option for the Colts in these recent weeks.
At wide receiver 14, we got Ladd McConkey of the LA Chargers going up against the Tennessee Titans on the road this week. And while he did start the season slow, the last month we have really seen Ladd McConkey take off as the true number one option of this Chargers offense. 28.8% target share and 18.6 PPR points per game in that stretch. And quietly, he's run the eighth most routes in the NFL. And of course, he's still attached to Justin Herbert. The Titans, they are incredibly banged up on defense. Laremy Tunsil needed, he's on IR. Jeffery Simmons, he's not going to play in this game. And they just traded their number two corner, Roger McCreary. This Titans defense is overmatched. And I think the Chargers offense hums yet again. So, give me the "higher" on Ladd McConkey's receiving yards. And that is the fourth and final entry into our pick 'em this week. We'll recap it at the end of this video.
And then finally, at wide receiver 15, we have Nico Collins of the Houston Texans. And I really don't know where to rank Nico because on one hand, the talent level, he should be higher than this. But on the other hand, this is a very, very bad game environment. 39-12 over/under, only 20 and a half implied Texans points, and of course, with Nico Collins, he is coming off of a concussion. So, didn't really know where to end up talent-wise. I think I have to respect him, rank him as a number one-two. But I also have to acknowledge that he's not very good this year, and he's going up against a very difficult challenge with Denver. Even without Pat Surtain, Riley Moss has been playing extremely well, and this Denver defense is poised to cause the Texans offense some troubles.
But moving on to tier four, we have what I describe as the backend wide receiver twos: Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave, Brian Thomas Jr., DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Debo Samuel, and Terrace Marshall Jr. But we'll start off on Thursday Night Football. We saw Jaylen Waddle have a really solid game. Nine targets, six receptions, 82 receiving yards, and 14.2 PPR points. With Jaylen Waddle, with no Tyreek Hill on the field, he has been the true number one wide receiver for Miami. Sure, at times Tua Tagovailoa, not the most reliable quarterback, but Jaylen Waddle's an alpha number one wide receiver, and he's got the type of skill set to take any target to the house.
At number 17, we have Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals. On the other side of that Monday Night Football game against my Dallas Cowboys, Jacoby Brissett was just announced the starter for this game, and Marvin Harrison Jr., of course, has a very big cupcake on the other end. Dallas, second worst defense in EPA per play against the pass, and they allow fantasy points to wide receivers like nobody's business. This is a shootout environment, 53 and a half over/under. And while it's unclear just how good Marv will be with Jacoby Brissett, like, keep in mind, first game that Brissett was starting, we saw Marv get hurt against Indianapolis. And in the second game, we saw Marv command six targets despite being cleared for concussion protocol within a week. Now it seems like he's fully healthy, he's slowly caught up to his bearings, and he has a smash game environment. I would not be shocked if this is the Marvin Harrison Jr. breakout week.
But at wide receiver 18, we have Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints going on the road to play the LA Rams. And if you just look at what he's done on the season, like, you should argue that maybe he should be higher. 14.9 points per game, wide receiver 10 in fantasy. But I do have to acknowledge that there is a big elephant in the room. And I think Tyler Shough is a significant downgrade from Spencer Rattler. On top of that, the LA Rams, the number two defense in EPA per play against the pass. This is an extremely tough matchup, and this is a rookie quarterback that could very much be overwhelmed. Chris Olave, he could very well prove this wrong, but at the same time, I do have to acknowledge some risk with Shough in the lineup.
Wide receiver 19, we got Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars. And guys, pour one out for me. Pour one out there for all the Travis Hunter owners out there. It sucks, man. Like, it really does suck. I truly thought the Travis Hunter breakout was coming. He looked great before the bye week. All signs were indicating a bigger workload, and then on Wednesday, he just ends up getting hurt. Gets placed on IR basically immediately. I would be shocked if we saw Travis Hunter for the rest of the regular season. In all honesty, I do think that he should be out for the rest of the regular season. We could be potentially dealing with a torn meniscus. At least the ACL's intact, but nonetheless, very heartbreaking tweet to have to read from Ian Rapoport. But we do have to talk about the fantasy implications for Brian Thomas Jr. as we know we're really high on the talent coming into the year, and this is a very easy matchup going up against the Raiders defense. I understand Brian Thomas Jr., he's been frustrating all year, but at the same time, he should be able to get in behind, and with no Travis Hunter, maybe we see him get up towards a 25, 30% target share in this matchup against a pass-happy Raiders defense.
At wide receiver 20, we have DK Metcalf of the Pittsburgh Steelers going to play the Indianapolis Colts at home, and he has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this year and has five touchdowns in his seven games played. 50 and a half over/under, and the Steelers are three-point home underdogs. I'm expecting Pittsburgh to need to throw the football a ton and stretch the Colts vertically in this game. We have seen more passing volume from Aaron Rodgers in recent weeks. Before the bye, 27 pass attempts per game. After the bye, we have seen 33.3 Rodgers pass attempts per game. And as we know with DK Metcalf, he is a 23% target share player in this offense.
At number 21, we got Courtland Sutton of the Denver Broncos going on the road to play the Houston Texans this week. And typically, he would be higher in these rankings, but this is a brutal matchup against Houston, who've not only been the single best defense in EPA per play, it simply has not been close on the year. As you guys can see on this graphic, Houston negative .21 EPA per play against the pass versus the second best defense at .12. Houston, the difference between them and the second best defense is larger than the difference between the LA Rams and the 10th best defense against the pass this year. Derek Stingley, he's playing extremely well. DeMeco Ryans, his scheme is really coming through, and we have seen them be an absolute wrecking ball against wide receivers. No disrespect to Sutton, he's been playing well. Broncos offense looks good, but I think this is going to be a slugfest against the Texans and Broncos.
At wide receiver 22, we got Deebo Samuel of the Washington Commanders going on Sunday Night Football to play the Seattle Seahawks, and he is still very clearly banged up. However, Terry McLaurin out for this game, and Jaden Daniels is making his return to the lineup. We have seen when Deebo Samuel has been playing with Jaden Daniels. Keep in mind, the games that he has played with Jaden Daniels in the lineup, he is averaging over 17 points per game. But when I factor in the injury concern, when I factor in the difficult matchup, I'll cautiously start him with low-end wide receiver two expectations. We have seen the ceiling from Deebo all year, but I just don't know how banged up he is.
And at 23, the final member of this tier, we got Terrace Marshall Jr. of the Carolina Panthers going on the road to play the Green Bay Packers this week. Not a very good game environment, but we have seen wide receiver one-level usage from T.J. And the issue for him has simply been the value of his targets and a bad offense. But I do think this offense can improve moving forward. We've seen better games from Legette these last couple of weeks, and Jonathan Mingo is expected to be fully healthy after a couple weeks of ramp-up. If Jonathan Mingo can be that slot wide receiver, help move the chains, keep this offense on flow, we can see some more valuable targets for Marshall going forward. And I do think he's got 15-plus point per game upside.
But moving on to the next tier, we have the high-end wide receiver threes: T. Higgins, Stefon Diggs, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, Romeo Doubs, Xavier Worthy, and Wan'Dale Robinson of the New York Giants.
For T. Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals. And I do think with Joe Flacco banged up, T. Higgins is the guy that suffers most because T. Higgins is the big outside wide receiver that gets those valuable down-the-field looks. With Joe Flacco's shoulder banged up, I do think we see more of a layup, YAC-based type of offense, which only benefits a guy like Ja'Marr Chase. So, we'll see what ends up happening. We have seen volatile week-to-week usage, but I would lean on the side of T. Higgins being the bigger disappointment comparative to Ja'Marr Chase based on expectations.
At 25, Stefon Diggs of the New England Patriots going to play the Atlanta Falcons at home. He's been the alpha when he's on the field, but the issue is that the route share simply hasn't been there. He's only exceeded 80% of the Patriots routes in one game this season. But despite a limited route share, man, when he is on the field, he is the true alpha of his core, and he has scored double-digit PPR points in four of his last five games. Atlanta, they're a difficult matchup, but Diggs is a target hog, and Drake May is playing MVP-level football.
At wide receiver number 26, we got Jordan Addison and the Minnesota Vikings going to play the Detroit Lions on the road this week. While there is some concern with the potential volume dip with J.J. McCarthy, I think Jordan Addison has proven that he's just a very good player. 16 points per game on the year, and he offers the big-play upside of this offense in what should be a pass-happy game script. So I understand the concern, J.J. McCarthy not a ton of volume in the offense earlier in this year, but we also didn't see him work with Jordan Addison, and maybe we see Jordan Addison get behind in this game, and it seems like I'm more optimistic than the market seems to be on this offense.
At 27, we got Quentin Johnston of the LA Chargers going on the road to play Tennessee, and he struggled last Thursday. He scored a goose egg. Everybody's making fun of him. You know, it was tough, man. 0% target share, zero targets for zero fantasy points. Like, that's not what you want to see from Quentin Johnston, especially given the expectations we had from earlier in this year. If we just simply adjust our expectations for him being a volatile wide receiver three, we do paint a very much better picture for Quentin Johnston because on that hand, he scored 16.2 points per game this year. He's had an 18% target share for a high-octane Chargers offense, and we have seen plenty of spike weeks. As long as you just adjust your expectations and you also acknowledge that this is a very good game environment against Tennessee, you squint, you plug your nose, you put Quentin Johnston back in the lineup, we hope for the big plays this week to counteract last week's goose egg.
28, we got Romeo Doubs of the Green Bay Packers going to play the Carolina Panthers at home. And he isn't flashy, but you know, you're getting 85-plus% of the Packers routes and a guy that's averaged 15.7 points per game since week four. Doubs, he's been a top 40 weekly wide receiver in all but one game. And he has commanded 39% of the Packers yearly air yards and 42% of the Packers yearly end zone targets. With Romeo Doubs, he's on a touchdown cold streak, but he has averaged nearly eight targets per game since Jayden Reed's been out of the lineup.
At 29, we got Xavier Worthy of the Kansas City Chiefs going on the road to play the Buffalo Bills. And he has officially been alpha'd by Rasheed Rice. We're not going to say, "Oh, they're going to pedal weeks this and that." I mean, this is to you, Cory, by the way. I have to make this joke. Um, Rasheed Rice is the number one, and we're hoping Xavier Worthy can be this team's Jameson Williams, and we do have that potential Jamo-like spike week this week. 52 and a half over/under steam on the over in this game, and Worthy is due for a big-time spike week. Rasheed Rice, he is still the undisputed one in this offense, but Buffalo's defense has been inconsistent all year, and I think Mahomes will exploit their outside corners this week.
At wide receiver number 30, we got Wan'Dale Robinson of the New York Giants, and he saw a downgrade when Darius Slayton returned to the lineup. And this is a solid game environment all things considered because with Fred Warner out of the lineup, with no Nick Bosa on the other side, the 49ers pass defense has struggled, and the Giants are implied for a respectable 23 points this week. Fourth highest projected pace on the slate, and has two and a half point underdogs. We could see a ton of Robinson usage late in the game as they're laying them up targets against soft shells.
But moving on to the low-end wide receiver threes, we got Khalil Shakir, Rashid Shaheed, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Josh Downs this week. We'll start off at the top. Khalil Shakir, wide receiver of the Buffalo Bills, and he scored 20.8 PPR points in week eight. Now has that huge game going up against KC. Shakir, he just might be set up for another smash environment against KC. And there is risk, don't get me wrong. He's only run 75% of the Bills routes this year, but this is a game where the Buffalo Bills, they'll need to go blow for blow. We know KC's going to score on the other side, and I expect Buffalo to feed their number one short-area target. A guy that's gotten a 24-plus% target share in three of his last four games.
At 32, Rashid Shaheed of the New Orleans Saints going on the road to play the LA Rams. Very difficult matchup. And Shaheed gets that downgrade with Tyler Shough. However, 21 targets in his last two games, including 12 in week eight. And on top of that, with Rashid Shaheed, we've quietly seen some consistency, man. Four-plus catches in every game this year. You can do a lot worse than Rashid Shaheed as the number three wide receiver in your lineup. And yes, I would start Rashid over Keenan Allen this week. I understand with Keenan Allen, very, very good matchup on the road against Tennessee. But at the same time, his usage has fallen off of a cliff. He hasn't scored as a top 36 wide receiver in four of his last five games, and he just ran a season-low 50% of the routes. What does his struggles coincide with? Oronda Gatson in this offense. I do think with Oronda Gatson's breakout, they have rendered Keenan Allen a lot less impactful in this offense. And while I do think the floor for Allen is extremely low given the decrease in route share, I also have to acknowledge that when he's on the field, he does command targets. And while the bust weeks have been far more frequent of late, we also saw what the spike week looked like in week seven where he was the wide receiver three overall in the slate. I have to go against him in the flock league. And while I do think in most scenarios he's probably a low score in the lineup, I also think he's a volatile upside play given how strong this Chargers passing offense has been at times.
I want to say for 34, we got DJ Moore of the Chicago Bears on the road to play the Cincinnati Bengals, and he just posted his second best game of the year in week eight, and now has a smash matchup against Cincinnati. He is volatile, but there is big-time matchup upside in a 27.25 implied point offense.
And then finally at 35, Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts going to play the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. He scored 10-plus points in three straight games. And like I mentioned earlier, this is a pass-funnel Steelers defense with Josh Downs. He's also quietly scored touchdowns in each of his last two weeks. If you are struggling, you need someone to put in given the byes. I think Josh Downs has proven his upside in this offense.
But now, let's go on to the flex plays. The wide receivers 36 through 40 in my rankings. We'll try to keep it brief. We got Christian Watson, Jauan Jennings, Jameson Williams, Darnell Mooney, and Alec Pierce in that tier this week.
And starting off at the top, we have at 36, Christian Watson of the Green Bay Packers going to play the Carolina Panthers at home. He made his season debut with 65% of the routes, and he produced 85 receiving yards on those routes. As we know with Christian Watson, he's got that big-play upside. And this Packers passing offense desperately needs him. Jordan Love, we've seen some rookie mistakes. And Christian Watson's presence and ability to press vertically is a much-needed factor for what we haven't seen. With Christian Watson, he has the upside to overtake Romeo Doubs and be the number two weapon in this offense behind Tucker Kraft.
37. We got Jauan Jennings of the San Francisco 49ers on the road to play the New York Giants. And he is volatile given how banged up he is, but he has gotten seven-plus targets and 80-plus% of the routes in each of his last two games. And on top of that, he's commanded 24-plus% of the targets in each of those games. With Jauan Jennings, he is a concern given just how banged up he is. But I do think with another week of recovery, hopefully we finally see the efficiency match the usage.
All right, number 38, Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions. Pretty simple here. 36% of the Lions air yards and two 18-plus point games this year. However, the downside of Jameson Williams is he only has a 15% seasonal target share and he has been very, very inconsistent from a production standpoint. We do have a glimmer of hope. We do have quotes coming out from Detroit's OC John Morton that they want to get Jameson Williams involved more moving forward. I just need to see substance of it on the field before I rank it as so.
Moving on to wide receiver 39. We got Darnell Mooney of the Atlanta Falcons going on the road to play New England. He hasn't been good this year, but at the same time, Drake London's back. Drake London's going to be the short-area target. And as we know with Darnell Mooney, he's got upside working down the field. Michael Penix, he's back in the lineup. Maybe we start to see them connect on some deep shots. 2025 has been a forgettable year, but we saw just how good he was in this offense in 2024.
And then finally, Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's been volatile in terms of his week-to-week usage, but he is averaging 64.3 receiving yards per game, and the Colts are implied for nearly 27 points. With Pierce, he is volatile, like I said, he's a risk given the fact he's only the fourth option in this offense, but let's hope he can pay off as a flex play this week.
But either way, if you guys enjoyed, make sure you leave a like down below. Comment your biggest start/sit decisions. I'll try to get to as many as possible. And of course, if you're new to the channel, hit that subscribe button. We are on the road to 100,000 subscribers. I mentioned my pick 'em entry in this video for those of you that are curious and want the recap here: Michael Pittman Jr., we are taking the "higher" on his receiving yards. Ladd McConkey, we're also taking the "higher" on his receiving yards. Rasheed Rice, we are taking the "higher" on his rushing plus receiving touchdowns. And we are taking the "higher" on CeeDee Lamb's fantasy points. You put those together, and that is the entry. And if you guys want to tail or fade my picks today, promo code FSE, the links are in the description. With that being said, peace out. Good luck in week nine. Let's secure those W's. You beat me. You beat me.