Transcription
All right. Well, you've probably seen the news. May 5th, around 1500 UTC time. That's when the Crescendo Hard fork, 10 blocks per second, will be coming. It'll be a historic moment. We're a little over 36 days away. But will the price action be what some think it is?
Now, that's where, you know, you you make the money, but uh, usually in these type of events, the price action might not respond the way you're thinking. But there's bigger things in the overall market that will probably dictate, I would say probably, if there was any tier one listings after this, or just what the overall market's doing. Even though, you know, there's times in the last year and a half that Caspa went against the grain on that, but it's exciting. You know, it's going to be fast, but one thing to keep in mind: right now, there's not a ton of transactions going through. So you need Casplex, Eager Labs, some of that utility getting built with smart contracts on those L2s.
Um, but right there you can see that there's only about 60, 70,000 transactions uh going out uh a day right now. So that's not a ton of transactions. So most of these blocks, once the Crescendo hard fork happens, a lot of these blocks, the only the only transaction will be the Coinbase reward for the miner. So, but it's that's not to take away from how historic it is; just kind of being realistic that the use case is not really all built out yet. So, uh, it'll be going fast, lots of blocks per second, but a lot of empty blocks with just the Coinbase reward to start off with.
Obviously, the whole market's tanking today. Um, is what it is. Not sure if we're out of the woodworks. I know that the global M2 money supply has been going up, so it takes a while for that to kick in. A lot of tariffs, a lot of disruption with the Trump administration, whatever they're doing with Doge. I think you got to let the dust settle and see what actually gets cut, what doesn't get cut. Apparently, the budget that went to the Senate really has no cuts. But maybe next year they'll, or later this year when the new fiscal year starts in October, you'll see more of those cuts. But as of right now, there's a lot of disruption going on out there.
And I think just a friendly reminder, anyone thinking of saying what the price is going to be, uh, doesn't matter to the downside or upside; basically, anyone saying that it's going to be a minimum of this price, I'd be real careful about following that person, in my humble opinion. Um, I think that like even like Crypto Galaxy was good. I'm not picking on him here, but a couple examples here of just him saying that it's going to hit $5 a cycle, whatever, $7. Uh, yeah, he talked about Casper early, but that doesn't give him a free pass for the rest of his life to say whatever he wants. Uh, you know, people guaranteeing prices, you just you can't guarantee anything. I guess if you're inside the administration and you knew for sure that the day that the Bitcoin reserve was going to get announced or something, you might be able to kind of, you know, have a better idea than just some regular dude.
And I know sometimes people expect a crypto YouTuber to be confident and you know, to say exactly what the price is going to be, and some people do that. Like that Josh Mandel guy back in November predicted on Pi Day, on 3/14, that Bitcoin would be $84,000 and basically closed right at that. But that doesn't mean he's going to be right on his $444,000 prediction of Bitcoin. So that's just something to keep in mind. It's exciting right now. Today is not exciting, but uh, you know, when you're buying, you know, on days when it's not exciting is, you know, the best time to buy, and the best time to sell is on days when it's super exciting.
Uh, if you're looking to buy and sell, you know, some people were all in this different game. Some people are going to take some profit this cycle. Some people are building up, trying to build generational wealth, believing that Caspa is going to, you know, be able to go up long term and build generational wealth for some people if they have a big enough bag. So, we're all playing a different game, but most likely if you're watching this, you're team Caspa, and uh, we have different levels of different sizes of positions and different percentages of our portfolio.
Um, and there's a lot of speculation. You know this, you know, a lot of most crypto is speculative, you know, investing, which some people call gambling. But I think that when you, you know, you're honest and realize that there's a lot of speculation on what the price will do this year, and that's exactly what it is. You know, it's not the same as buying the S&P 500 index fund, just saying, "Okay, I know this is going to go up on average 8 to 11% for the next 20 years." You know, it's a different higher risk, higher reward. But I do think that's where Casper offers potential because you're buying into a network that still has a pretty low market cap that's doing cool stuff. And even if you just take a small position, you can do it for a pretty inexpensive price.
Cuz I believe at today's prices, you can buy 1,367 Casper, which is the equivalent of 121 millionth ownership of the network for about 90 bucks. So for under a 1,000, you could get a 10, 21 millionth ownership of the network, um, which is the equivalent of having one bitcoin or dip 10 bitcoin in terms of your ownership of the network because in the end that's what you have with bitcoin and caspa. I know some people don't think they're backed by energy. Uh, even people that are super into Bitcoin, but I think it's a little different because uh, without the computers securing the network and doing the proof of work for the next block, then you wouldn't be able to use your Caspa or Bitcoin. So I do think that them converting energy, having all these computers using energy securing the network and also providing this decentralized computer network, uh, you need that otherwise you wouldn't be able to use your Casper or Bitcoin. So it's a little bit different than gold where gold, once it's mined and refined, you don't need the miner for anything. So they're a bit different.
So I don't know, that's my kind of rants of the day. Exciting. Uh, you know, so a little over a month and we'll see. It would have been cool if it was on May 4th, cuz May the 4th be with you. But it'll be on May 5th, Cinco de Mayo. So that's cool. May 4th is a cool day. May 5th, Cinco de Mayo. You know, if you live in the United States, then you probably know about that Mexican holiday. So it's a big drinking day in the United States, drinking Mexican beer, or yeah, drinking Mexican beer and eating Mexican food.
So that's all I got for today. Exciting times. Uh, you know, these these dark days in the market are good for buying. Um, and they're kind of tough for looking at your portfolio. A lot of exciting things, and you just got to be open-minded what might happen. You know, there's a large part of where Casp will be at, the just where the overall market, where Bitcoin's at on May 5th, and then also where the smart contracts are at and tier one exchange listings and all that stuff. And if you're not planning on selling in May, then it's really not that big a deal. But some people are going to expect it to go through the move and and you might see the price run up ahead of the hard fork, and then you might see a pullback unless there's some kind of Binance or Coinbase or some really cool listing news to piggyback off that. So, we'll see.
I think that if I was Binance or Coinbase and I was getting close to listing, I'd be waiting till after the hard fork when it's this close. Like it'd be one thing if you listed six, seven months ago, but at this point when you're just a little over a month away from a big hard fork, you know, I would wait till right afterwards, in my humble opinion. So, thanks for watching and have a good day. [Music]