Ray Dalio’s Chilling WW3 Prediction & Claude Mythos Threatens The Entire Internet

damn thing. What's up everybody? Welcome to another episode of the Tom Billy Show live. We are here. We're ready. Man, it has been a wild whatever 48 hours since we have last been together. Boys and girls, I am going to be in an upbeat mood all day today. I am forcing myself. It I've had enough uh of all the madness in the world. And I think as you'll see by the end of today's episode, it's not going anywhere. It's not going anywhere. It's going to be mad for quite some time. So, we are all going to practice the things that I preach to myself endlessly, which is that I control my emotional state. Nobody else, not the world. It's just me. So, uh, this is going to be awesome. I can't wait.

By the way, in the final hour before Trump was scheduled to send Iran back to the stone age, a two-week ceasefire deal was reached with Iran. If you guys haven't heard about that yet, we're going to be going into that deep. Everybody's big up. If you are in the markets, man, if you own assets or drive a car, you are loving it right now. It's all green everywhere because of that ceasefire. It's fragile, though, so we'll see. We've got plenty to talk about there.

Claude Mythos is showing the world why you don't want China to win the AI war. Why it better be the US or whatever country you're in. I would expect you to want your country to win because oo buddy, this got wild. Claude Mythos broke out of its virtual cage and accessed the open internet. Be careful what you challenge your AI to do, causing people to panic uh over how powerful AI has gotten. We're going to get into the details on that one, but that that's really going to uh curl your hair. It's pretty crazy.

And speaking of things that's going to curl your hair, Ray Dallio has laid out his argument for how what's happening right now fits the classic definition of a world war. So, congratulations everybody. You are in the middle of World War II. You just don't realize it yet. This one feels like it has a lot of validity. So, we're going to go deep on that one. And uh yeah, so it's interesting because it finally did put words to how I've been feeling. Um, so, we'll get into that.

France, recognizing that this is a very tumultuous time, has removed all of their gold from the US. Uh, we will detail out what's happening there. And Kami Lame, if you guys don't know, of TikTok fame, absolutely incredible um content creator. He dodged a divorce nightmare and secured another bag. You're going to want to hear the details on that. And we have them for you today.

So, welcome everybody. Thank you. By the way, I know we have some super chats right off the bat. You guys are incredible. Sending love to everybody that joins this community. By the way, if you're here and you come here and you get value out of this, even if you're hate watching, we'll take it. Uh, do hit that subscribe button. It actually helps more than you can imagine. So, get to it.

>> Um, >> true. Welcome. >> Welcome. Today's stream is sponsored by Taco Bell. Um, and the new Trump uh cheese chalupa uh coming to a Middle Eastern restaurant near you. >> So, you're saying Trump tacoed out? >> One more time. >> Okay. So, I put it on the poll. What do you think about the ceasefire? First option, thank God, Allah, capitalism, whoever you worship. Wow. >> Um, the second one, taco. The third one, too early to tell. Don't know. Kind of. Maybe. No. Yeah. Whatever. >> Where we at? What's the What's the rank? >> A majority of people are saying, "Thank God I like capitalism or taco." Um, >> what's what does taco have compared to >> 40% thank god, 37%. >> Wow. So, it's close. Okay, that's interesting. Um, I How How are we meant to read Taco? Is that people being derogatory? Like, hey, this kid really wussed out and I wish he would have seen it through. Like, I wanted to see Iran back in the stone ages. How do we read that? >> Trump makes a threat. Doesn't follow up with that threat. He bluffs. Bluffing is probably a better word. >> And yay. So glad he bluffs. Like, I for one am like bib on. He's talking about the Stone Age. I'm getting my taco ingredients. I'm laying them out. I'm like, "Fuck yeah, it's going to be taco night. I'm here for it." Uh, I want the tacos. So, I'm concerned that people that say taco mean it in like a what a dumbass. I can't believe you back down. >> You should have bombed everybody. >> Yeah. >> Or they just hate Trump, I guess. And it's like they just anything they can do to dig at this guy. >> It was like on their bingo card. Okay. Either we're going to go after him for war crimes or we're going to mock him for backing down. Either way, those are either either way, we're going to be happy. Either way, either way. >> It's wild. >> All right, break it down for us. We got to talk about the 10-point plan or 15-point plan, depending on what foreign country tweets out first. Uh, and we'll see exactly what the negotiations are.

>> Yeah. >> So, the we got a ceasefire in Iran. That's sort of true. Uh, the details remain murky. There's a battle of narratives going on. And one of the gifts that I would like to bring to the world is just a constant reminder that everybody is trying to control the way that you see things. I do my best to choose my words carefully, but even I am choosing words. And so I am bringing to you a frame of reference. So remember, as we all look at what's happening right now, we are being bombarded by people that want us to see it from their perspective. Uh, and there's a lot of conflicting details flying almost as fast as the additional rockets that have been flying. So, I will say that at best, the ceasefire is extremely fragile. The details go something like this. Just like an hour or so before Trump's self-imposed 8 p.m. Tuesday deadline, the US and Iran agreed tentatively to a two-week ceasefire. That's it. They haven't agreed to points. They've agreed to a two-week ceasefire with peace talks set for Friday in Islamabad. Pakistan's prime minister Shabbaz Sharif helped get the two-week pause for negotiations across the finish line and he posted directly on X tag taking Trump Vance Rubio and Wickoff asking Trump to please extend the deadline two weeks and asking Iran as an act of good faith to open the Strait of Hormuz obviously. So Trump posted on True Social that based on conversations with Sharif and Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshall Assim Munir, he agreed to suspend bombing Iran for two weeks on the condition of a complete immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Well, I've got some bad news. The ceasefire so far feels very fragile given all the rockets that are flying everywhere. And I'm not even even including Israel bombing Lebanon. I think that's a separate issue. It's terrible, but nonetheless, it's a separate issue. Um, and there's nothing like a full reopening of the strait right now. So, just to be real clear, according to reporting, limited safe passage of a much reduced number of ships has begun to move through the strait. So, okay, good sign. But we are not to the point of what Trump said that the two weeks was conditioned upon. Now, I think on that Trump will be pretty forgiving uh for people that like to see taco sauce on Trump's chin. Uh, you can expect him to he's going to take that. There's no way he's going to go make good on the insane threats that he was promising uh because the strait isn't open enough. But over time, I think you could see that start to grate on him. So, we'll see where we end up. Iran's foreign minister confirmed that Thyron has accepted the ceasefire and said that Iran would allow safe passage through the strait during those two weeks via coordination with Iran's armed forces. Now, emotions are still going to be high. These are humans that we're talking about. So, you can expect pettiness. You can expect people to drag their feet. Everybody should be assuming that neither the US nor Iran is actually putting their real agenda on the table. That both sides are going to be using the beat to uh build their arsenals back up to get rested so that they can fight some more. So, please don't be surprised uh if any of this goes awry.

Now, the mechanic that got Iran over the line, Trump said he received a 10-point proposal from Iran and called it a workable basis for negotiation. Okay, a workable basis for negotiation. Not I've agreed to these points. Has been this is where the most of the uh battle for the narrative has been taking place is around what's been proposed, what's been agreed. There's like all these fake points that are going around and Trump is talking about uh whether a um law was broken in some of that reporting. Anyway, adding um when you look at the points that were put forward, almost all of the points uh that were considered to be contention according to Trump have been moved beyond. So the things that were the real sticking points apparently are no longer there. Iran's framing though of those same items is pretty different. Iran's 10-point proposal included according to them regulated passage through Hormos under Iranian military coordination, full sanctions relief, and Iran retaining what it called a quote unquote unique economic and geopolitical standing over the strait. Meaning basically we get to extort ships that are going through the strait. Now, much of the narrative warfare that's flying all over social media is whether this is a win for Iran or the US. Some people are saying that Trump has already agreed to Iran's deal points, which would be a humiliating defeat. But Trump said that that's all fake news and he's going to investigate CNN, as I was saying, they were the ones that broke the story first to see if this was an honest mistake or if they actually misreported intentionally. So, we'll see how that winds up. I'm sure that will just fall by the wayside. Uh, but we'll find out.

Previously, Trump had warned that a whole civil a whole civilization will die tonight. People have been running with that, saying that he was promising the genocide of the people in Iran. I think he was more talking about the infrastructure. Uh, but nonetheless, he certainly left plenty of room for people to hate what he was saying. He had threatened massive strikes on civilian infrastructure and the Iranians had encouraged their own people to go stand around that infrastructure, which is also a war crime. Uh, so keep that in mind. Plenty of war crimes for everybody and this is brushed off uh around whether Trump thought these were war crimes or not, but I think you would expect that. Uh, his specific targets included bridges, power plants, and water treatment facilities. And while I for one am forcing myself, as mentioned at the top of the show, to maintain optimism here, the truth does indeed feel extraordinarily delicate. Sirens have sounded across Israel and multiple Gulf states, including Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, even after the ceasefire went to effect. So that's certainly not great news for this holding. Israel's military said it identified several rounds of missiles that were launched from Iran as well. Uh, and as many people are pointing out, it does appear that Israel is also bombing the living daylights out of Lebanon. It's a different conflict, but nonetheless, uh, entirely related. And so, I'm sure some people will try to throw that in the mix. Now, whether all of these launches came before or after the ceasefire technically took effect, isn't yet confirmed. Iran's decentralized military structure also makes it very possible that the IRGC commanders, who are operating autonomously off of predetermined target lists, just may not have gotten the orders in time. So, it's very possible that everybody's intentions were pure. It's of course also possible that it's not. Everybody's just being an [ __ ]. Keep all of that in mind. Iran Supreme Leader issued a stop fire order approximately 2 hours after Trump's announcement. So, we'll see how long it takes to work its way down to all the troops.

Now, the markets reacted immediately as markets do, which I hope if you guys are newish to the investing game that you very quickly map how reactive markets are up and down, which is why you don't panic sell. The S&P 500 futures rose more than 1% on the news and the price of oil plunged back down to below 95. That's both for WTI and Brent crude. I don't know if any of you care about the difference, but there is a difference. And so both of them are back down. So just remember if something weird happens, the markets will flip again and oil prices will skyrocket back up and the stock market will go back down. So this is why I say have a very long-term time horizon. Do not try to time the market. This stuff's way too volatile. Way too volatile.

>> Starting at the beginning, just in general, I'm glad we got the ceasefire. It was looking dicey. >> It's still looking dicey. You are in World War II. >> I say that just as blasé as I can. >> I was surprised how many of the Iranian people actually were standing on bridges in power plants waving their flags almost egging the US on to do something. So I'm glad we at least got out of that diplomatic nightmare crisis that would have uh ensued. >> However, >> also uh so yes, maybe egging on, but you've got to respect when somebody believes in something enough that they're willing to die for it. Uh, the US has made no secret. They will blow [ __ ] up and you know that and you still go go hold hands around the building like respect. I I am not one to say um I I will acknowledge fully when my adversary is worthy. These guys are not for play. So again I come back to I don't know what portion of the country is uh for the regime, what is against. I found an account on X last night of somebody who appears to be in Iran. They have access to a Starlink satellite and they're posting like crazy saying, you know, hey, listen, we actually do want US bombs. We really do want to get out from under this regime, but is that propaganda? >> Is that somebody outside that's spoofing it and just making it seem like they're inside? Um, do they represent like 42 people? Do they represent 42 million people? I have no idea. Um, so you have to be very careful. Whatever narrative you look for, you're going to find. So, you've also got to seek the disconfirming evidence. But it's very interesting. It does not appear that they are a nation moving in lockstep. Um, but getting the exact percentages of where this all breaks is impossible to ascertain. I'm just reminding myself constantly of what the US looks like from the outside. If you want to believe that every American hates America, it'd be very easy to paint that picture. If you want to believe that every American supports every American supports Trump, it'd be very easy to paint that picture. Both are lies. But there's enough people making noise in those directions that you're going to find what you're looking for.

>> It's really wild. And I do remember, I know we talked about this a lot when we first started the live, but going back to when I was reading James Burnham and thinking through like, woo, a lot of the stuff that he talks about the iron law of oligarchy, you will always be ruled by a few. Those people will control the narrative. I'm like, yeah, that's not going to work in the age of the internet and social media where the volume and velocity of information is so excruciatingly high um that it's going to play out in a different way. And we're now seeing how it plays out that you get all these fragmented narratives. It becomes very difficult to ascertain what the real picture is. You can start piecing things together, but you have to do a lot of individual work. Most people are not willing to do that. Um, and I'm I really believe and this is something I've taught to entrepreneurs for a very long time. If you want to lead, you have to intoxicate people with certainty. And so that like, let's sit with that for a second.

One of the things that makes a great leader is that they can intoxicate people with certainty. I am right. I see the future clearly. We must all do this. And the human mind abhors confusion so much that you can get somebody like Hitler that will march you down a path of just unimaginable evil, but they sound so convincing >> that they've got the right answer while they do it. And then anybody that's like, well, really there's a lot more nuance. We need to stop and think about this. Um, those people don't do as well. I'll give you an example. You know who Coleman Hughes is? >> Okay, that kid should be one of the biggest influencers on planet Earth. And every time I see his content, I want to scream at the internet where I'm just like, the guy you've been waiting for exists. His name is [ __ ] Coleman Hughes. And he can hold extraordinarily nuanced ideas in his head. He's open and willing to change his mind. He can debate with people with civility but tenacity. I mean, just like how the [ __ ] does this kid not get millions of views on everything he does? But he doesn't. And the reason he doesn't is he is not bombastic. I'm not going to get a jersey that says Coleman Hughes because he does not whip up emotion. He does not present certainty. It is this way. Let's go. Come on, everybody. He's like, "Okay, we've got to think through it. Here's how I'm thinking through it." And it doesn't work. And that really riles me up.

Bringing it back to the war, Iran. No, no, no. I love it. Very fair. Iran announced their 10-point plan. Trump announced the 15-point plan. There's some speculation about which what negotiation point, you know, classic negotiation. You say 100, I say 10. We meet somewhere at 45, 50, 55, depending on how good we are at negotiating.

>> If you are looking at this before the situation, after the situation, >> what's the situation? >> Iran in uh attack. >> Yeah. From the from the last month and a half. Yeah. >> Um, it seems that no matter what we come out of, the Strait of Hormuz will now be a toll road in one direction or another. Somebody's going to be getting some type of proceeds to pass through that. It used to be free. There's going to be some type of infrastructure cost that will need to happen in the UAE countries, in Iran, things like that. As we're starting to look through all these points, do you think that we have quote unquote won this war? Or are we on the winning side if we actually broker a deal with some of these points being made or was it we got the we got the uranium, Iran knows not to mess with us, we got the moral victory, we we did what we came to do. >> I won't be able to answer that question until the actual negotiated peace comes out. But if the war were to end right now today, this would be an unmitigated disaster for the United States. If we walk out of this uh right now, all we have done is um reassert that uh if we say we're going to do something, we're going to do it. Now, that that isn't nothing. That is a big thing on the world stage. People understand between Venezuela and Iran, if we say we're going to do it, we're going to do it under Trump. But the world also knows that if you just wait out Trump, the odds you get another Trump are effectively zero. And so you're going to be back to who knows what kind of um deterrence position in the future. So there is always that uncertainty with the way that America operates. Now if the Strait of Hormuz goes from open but like everybody's tense about it to everybody's paying a $2 million fee, I think that that is much worse for the world. Uh, and so I'll be very interested to see what happens in the long run with people like the UAE, Saudi Arabia. Do they just shrug it off and go, "Okay, whatever. This is fine." Do they use this as a jumping off point to do like what Saudi is doing and building other pipelines that go to other means of distribution? So across land to another sea or just across land so that in the GCC countries and maybe all the way to Israel that they're just literally piping the oil. That's certainly possible. Um, so in the long run things will find a balance again. But I think right now we have done an extraordinary job of uh alienating our allies, making us seem unhinged on the world stage. Uh, so I think as of right now today far more damage has come out. Now if on the other side of this on the other hand what we get is uh an Iran that is more like Venezuela. It's not necessarily regime change though Trump is billing it as such but a regime that is more willing to negotiate because they don't want to see you blast them into oblivion. And I just hold fast and steady to if we can get all of the countries in the Gulf, in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Gulf. If we can get all of them to think economically, then we've got an incredible opportunity. The the Gulf region be is already it is already the place where all the capital in the world is aggregating and then being disseminated from. Now, that may change given the instability that we see right now. But if that can settle down and we really do get um this working from a um dollars and cents standpoint, then this could be an incredible victory. Those dollars keep flowing into the US. The US markets remain the best markets. Uh, if you're looking to put money to work, that may not remain true forever, but that's still true right now today. Uh, if we can reaffirm the petrodollar, that would be a gigantic win for the US. If we can have uh a relationship with Iran that allows us to have more influence, I I think we're probably gonna have to give up on control at this point, but more influence on the oil that makes its way to China. Uh, basically stop giving them discounted oil and at least get it back on the global market uh at normal prices. Like those things would be a win if Iran is like, "We're not going to pursue a ballistic missile um regiment anymore. We're not going to go after nuclear weapons at all." Like and with all the other things I said, this would be a huge win. But as of right now, today, you're not there. And so we are still in a situation where if you wrap this up today with things as they are now, it would be an unmitigated disaster.

The goat Ray Dalio posted the big thing. We are in a world war that isn't going to end anytime soon. So he thinks this is just the first domino of a much larger arrangement of dominoes that is set to happen. Do you share this notion that this is Iran might there might not be bombs going off right now but there's still some economic warfare and things that are still going to be active?

>> The way yes is the fast answer. I do agree that he is clocking this the most wisely. I've had a feeling for maybe six months that I could not put words to. The way that I always thought of it in my own head is that uh when you take a stem cell and you make it pluripotent, you can run into problems where like cancers start forming because that cell doesn't know what it's supposed to be anymore.

Um, same with there's a jellyfish that is technically immortal. It will only die via trauma. Otherwise what it does is basically it it decoheres into essentially pluripotent stem cells where it's like what am I? So it becomes like this sort of gelatinous blob and then it reconstitutes itself. That's what I feel like is happening to the world. It's in this position where it's undifferentiated. All the alliances that we used to be able to count on, they just they're not really real anymore. Like the people that we think of as our allies, the trade routes, like the actual physical trade routes, those are falling apart. The idea that America is the um policeman of the world, that's going away. Like Trump has explicitly said these things, but we're not talking much about them. And so when I watch the markets, I see a market reacting as if these are temporary things and everything's just going to go back to normal. And it's like that world is dead. And so that feeling is very unnerving. I do not like the way that truth makes me feel. But when I read Ray Dalio's analysis, at least it gives you a map forward of how these things tend to play out. Now, the only thing I can tell you is anytime we believe we have mapped things accurately, people start reacting to that feeling that we have it mapped out accurately and it makes the map inaccurate. It's a hilarious truth of markets that people talk a lot about that say markets follow the pain the path of maximum pain >> that I think is true because you think oh I've seen this before so the market then has a whole bunch of people that think they've seen it before so they react in a new way and the market goes a new direction and everybody is punished.

Um, I have a feeling that when the world order changes it just is going to be painful and so I don't think there's going to be a way around the pain even though now it's like well we can see it coming and so that's the part where it gets distressing.

And if you want I can walk people through like Ray's stance. >> Let's jump into Ray's actual analysis. >> Okay, so Ray Dalio has spent 50 years as a global macro investor studying every major financial and geopolitical crisis of the last 500 years. Let's all put that right there on the mantle. Okay, nobody has made more money than Ray Dalio being able to predict where the world is going. Remember, markets are the ability to predict the future more accurately than somebody else. And he said, "Hey, what's a great predictor of the future? It's the past. So, let me look at the past." He actually studied far more than 500 years, but 500 years is where the pattern that we're living through now really began to crystallize. And I am just shocked at how many people brush him off. I think they're a bunch of [ __ ] morons. Now, Dalio has said that the current moment is most analogous to 1913 and 1938. The years just before the world blew up into world wars. Now, both times, just like today, people thought the conflicts were isolated. Both times they were catastrophically wrong. As I imagine, we are catastrophically wrong right now to not realize that everything going on in Ukraine, everything going on in Iran and across the GCC, Israel, all of it is actually part of World War III around reorganizing the entire world order. Now, as you guys well know, there are multiple active shooting wars running simultaneously right now. Russia versus Ukraine and NATO. Israel versus Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. The US and Israel versus Iran. Iran versus the GCC nations. A separate and wildly underreported conflict that is pitting Saudi Arabia and the UAE against each other. Tell me the last time you heard anybody talk about that. In a proxy war being carried out in Yemen and Sudan. Okay, there's a lot going on and that's all before you count the non-shooting wars, the trade wars, the tech wars, the capital wars that virtually every major power right now is fighting already. Dalio's view, and I think he is right, is that these aren't separate stories. These are one story. This is indisputable. And what he says is, "We are now in an interconnected world that has a number of shooting wars going on. Together, these conflicts make up a very classic world war that is analogous to past world wars." Now, that's the end of the quote. The sides that are lining up clearly are China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. That's one side. The US, Europe, Ukraine, Israel, and the GCC states, plus Japan on the other side. You can throw in Australia on our side if you want to really be robust, but those are the rough rough sides. Now, Dalio has tracked all of that through UN voting records, formal treaties, and direct actions. And he says they all point in the same direction, and that is this world war, the remapping of all the alliances. Dalio has mapped out, he's been doing this for a while, by the way. So, none of this is new. It's not like he's being reactionary to what's happening right now. This is just what he's seeing looking back at the 500 years of history that you we as a world always go through this 13-step sequence as we build up to these wars. And Dalio has um the data shows that these steps precede every major world war in recorded history. So you start with trade wars, you get alliance formations, proxy conflicts, resource weaponization, multi-theater combat, etc. And as Dalio has recently pointed out in X, we just hit step nine, which is multi-theater conflicts increasingly happening simultaneously. Now, Dalio argues that the US is in a structurally weak position to fight a prolonged multi-front war. Again, this is him just reading history. Right now, the US runs 750 to 800 military bases across 70 to 80 countries. We are all over. Now, by way of comparison, China only has one. Now, that may seem like a W for us and an L for China. But the reality is this is classic overextension. Overextension is exactly what has brought down every dominant power before ours. Yikes. The lesson of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, it's all the same lesson. Winning only happens if the winning country can get out and the losing country can no longer be a threat. The US, this major power with bases all over the place. We haven't managed that in decades. Now, you guys have heard me talk before. The reason is we're just not willing to kill enough people. Yay. Thank God. Yes. When go girl. Like, I'm not saying that's a bad thing. I'm just saying that's the reality. If you want to know why this was possible in days of old, it's because they would just slaughter and slaughter and slaughter and slaughter and slaughter and slaughter. Yeah. Genocide is like the repeating number one hit song basically of every generation all throughout human history uh until now. And I'm very glad that we happen to be in the time where we can all frown upon that and make noise and make sure that neither our government nor any other government is perpetrating that. But if you want to know why this overextension becomes a problem, it's that you're not able to just gobble up thankfully all of the resources in any given nation. Now, Dalio's bottom line is that the world order has changed from a multilateral rules-based world order. I don't think people even know what he means by that, just that you can govern things by laws instead of guns and bombs. Now we're back to a guns and bombs might makes right world order with no single dominant player enforcing that order, which means we can expect more fighting. Okay, when you don't have a world policeman but it is a might makes right world then people are going to fight all the time because they want to get theirs. That's just how the world works. Yeah, I get it. Uh, is versus ought. It is going to be the um biggest problem for having these discussions. As well. But the world is remapping its allegiances in real time and it's going to continue to be a very bloody affair to redraw these lines. So do not expect things to settle down anytime soon. Uh, if when things go red you panic or things go green you get too relaxed, you are going to get mowed over by the fact that we are in a hyper volatile time right now. And the odds that this all slows down is very, very low. And through all of it, all of us are going to have to keep investing because war is inflationary. So, this is going to be a wild time and you're not going to be able to sit on the sidelines.

That reminds me because I want to bring something up. I think that there's this uniquely American kind of shield we have around us where we are seeing ourselves as the hero in every story. And I understand that. It's a was it main character syndrome. We are the main characters in the world. We're the main characters globally where the main characters >> that we're the main character that we're the hero. >> Yeah. >> But when we go into other countries, they hear what we're saying. They hear what we celebrate. They hear what we are championing. >> And to me that seems like we are perpetuating the conflict even more. Um, somebody had like a really good uh tweet about this where they say, "No, you don't get it. When Trump says a whole civilization will die tonight, he's being hyperbolic and posturing, unlike when Iran says death to America, which is actually a very serious threat. Should definitely serve as a basis for an invasion. >> Such a great point. >> You know what I mean? So, it's one of those things where Khamenei, the person we killed, the OG one, he even said death to America is death to America. So, if he would have said, "Death to the American Epstein class," I think America would have been like, "Okay, we get what you're saying now." But they short-handed death to America. And then Trump will say a whole civilization will die tonight. You can allegedly say what you want about the girl school bombing. You can allegedly say what you want about the Trump the bridge bombing. But there is some little boy that whether my parents got killed in the school, the bridge now made my dad lose his job, something has happened that America did that is changing my life forever. >> Yeah. >> And I don't think a 10, 15 point, 16 point peace plan is going to solve that problem. And then in 30 years from now, we're going to have some Iranian insurgency terrorist organization that is birthed and we're going to be like, "Oh my gosh, these people are so uncivilized. They're just bad people. We need to bomb them." And we don't understand the consequences of our actions. >> Yeah. >> So there is something to the I understand we have to do might makes right. We have to fight for our resources, but then do we also we also have to be very honest about the consequences of that fight. >> Yes. >> Yeah. >> Very well said. I'm not even sure there's more to say to that.

>> Uh, I'll give you a slightly different angle on this. So, uh everybody has a set of values. They will murder other people for their values. Everybody does for all of time. Uh, and yeah, we have a collision of values certainly with Iran. We have a collision of values with more countries than just Iran, but everybody's willing to kill for their values. So the question becomes you've got um somebody like Dave Smith who we just had on thoroughly enjoy my time with him at all times. I wish I had more time with him. So I could have asked about the America is uh the biggest terrorist. I think it was something like that in the world. Um, and I think there's a very real argument to be made that that's true. And so you have to understand if somebody has a value set that's like you shouldn't be in wars. If people want to go genocide their own people, then you let them genocide their own people. It is what it is. And I use that example only to say that if your value is non-interventionist, we leave people alone. And anybody that's doing that, they all think they're the main character. They all think that they're right. Remember, Iran is not twirling their mustache thinking they're the bad guy. Iran thinks we're the good guy. These guys are the big saint. They're super evil. And so what I love about that tweet is it brings home what you see in that is a values collision. You see somebody who's like, "No, no, no. Death to America, obviously, because they're bad." Now, we don't mean the average American person. Like, don't be ridiculous. Sure, if I have to kill them all, fine, fine, fine. But like, this is really just you guys represent an idea that I can't have running loose in the world. If you'll give up the idea, then I would leave you alone.

>> Same on our side, right? So, that's where I'm always like, uh, people end up squabbling over the dumb parts and not getting to the, okay, wait, you do realize that we're trying to kill each other. Like, for real, for real, trying to kill each other, like actually end life. Uh, so I'm way less worried about the words and I'm like super worried about the fact that what humans do is they kill you until you don't have the will to be killed anymore and you will allow yourself to be subjugated. That's human nature. And so that seems like the far more interesting part to focus on. Certainly the far more important part uh instead of getting lost over whether they're chanting death to America. If we invaded because they they were chanting the words death to America, that would be the dumbest thing in the universe. If we invaded because we had reason to believe that they were building up a nuclear arsenal and that they would use it, that makes sense. Uh, here's the part everyone's going to hate. If we invaded because we understand that the real war is with China and if we can't weaken China then we're going to be in a devastatingly bad position in the new world order that's forming uh where we're not going to be able to carve out our own sphere of influence because China spent so many decades with their Belt and Road Initiative infiltrating the uh western hemisphere and that yeah, if I have to invade Iran to make sure that I get some sort of control over that oil to make sure that I can block China to make sure that I get my investment dollars from the GCC so that I'm in a good position to move forward in the world. Uh, then I'm going to do it. And that's where I'm like it it is so difficult to one which person cares about which motivation because all of the motivations are real up to and including the people who Americans who believe that Jesus wants Israel to have >> like all of the area Jerusalem all I don't know the exact word of >> the world exactly and so >> those motivations are real but then people who map the world like I map it completely economically like those motivations are also real. Um, and then Iran has their own motivations and people that underestimate their belief in their religion would be making a huge mistake. This is a theocracy. Uh, so yeah, which motivation is real? They're all real. But depending on what person you're talking to depends on like of the seven things that are motivating them, which one like takes up the most of like their energy in any given moment. It's just that's humans, man. This is so wild.

U and then this next one I want to daisy chain with the France uh part of it all. So France just removed all gold from the New York Reserve. >> It seems like our allies are also reacting to this >> new world order that's changing and shifting around us. >> Um, some people in the chat even said what allies? They're not helping us or they're not allies anymore. There is going to be some some divorces that happen on the global scale. Um, what do you think are some of the long-term ramifications of us with both our us not having allies in those same spots and what kind of vulnerabilities that might bring up?

>> Well, if you start thinking about what what Trump is trying to do is create what he calls greater North America. I'm pretty sure that's what he calls it. So, you've got from Greenland down to the Panama Canal >> and he's saying this is America essentially. He's not using those words, but like that's the idea. Uh, this is our sphere of influence. I'm perfectly happy to give up on the rest. You guys, Europe, you deal with Europe. Uh, Asia, you guys deal with Asia. This is us and we're going to make sure that we're in control of all this stuff. And whatever that means we have to do around the world to make sure that we're going to be able to get this, we're going to do. Part of that is going to be we have to kick China out. Um, part of that is going to be that we have to weaken China via energy policy, yada yada. Uh, so that starts making a lot of this stuff make sense. Um, but in terms of the way that things will fall out with our allies, it's if Europe isn't important as important, let's say, to the greater North American um sphere of influence, then Trump's thinking is [ __ ] them.

>> Now, if you alienate your allies, do not expect them to come to your aid as he is finding out now. >> Now, I'm sure Trump is mapping this as, well, I didn't do anything wrong and these guys are being bad allies. That would be a mistake. You humiliated them. You mock them. You >> um go into a war without like consulting with them at all, a war that is going to impact them. And then you're like, "Hey, come help me clean up this mess." It's pretty wild.

>> So all of that stuff is relatively understandable in terms of that. But I will say to the Europeans that you can take any snapshot in history and go, "Oh, Trump was the bad guy here." Or you can take a snapshot and go, "Oh, now you guys need something and you're not going to get it."

>> So, it's be careful of playing your card too heavily when you're right.

>> Um, this is something I talk to my wife about all the time. If somebody is wronging me, there is a point at which it's like this has to be dealt with immediately. But there are other times, like let's say my neighbors are being noisy, I'm just going to mark it down. My neighbors are noisy this day, this time, and I didn't say [ __ ] about it. I just put a pillow over my head, whatever, rolled over, let them have their party, let them enjoy it. Now, the reason that I do that is because one day I might want to have a party. And on that day, when they do knock on my door, I'm going to pull out my little notebook and I'm going to go through and say, "Hey, here were all the times where I didn't give you guys a hard time. You have a choice right now. We can either now get into a tit for tat pissing contest and I will never let anything slide ever again >> or you can turn around and [ __ ] off. Now, obviously I'm not going to say turn around and [ __ ] off, but I am going to make it abundantly clear that man, my thing is you want to give everybody as much grace as possible. You guys know I don't do a lot of parties. It's like a one-off. Totally get that this is being inconvenient. I'm sorry. Maybe there's even a little something I could do, but I am going to have this party. So I would just like to figure out moving forward, how do you want to handle this? Every time you guys are bothering me, do you want me to come to your door or do we want to allow each other a little bit of latitude? So the I don't think that Europe was wise in the way that they handled this, but I also don't think that Trump has been wise in the way that he has handled it.

>> And the Europeans are in a bad spot and they are acting like they're not. The the Europeans are in a catastrophic position >> and they're acting like the old world order still exists. And that's the part that scares me for them, especially as somebody has so much family in sort of Europe. They're technically in the UK, which is technically not part of Europe, but >> yeah, >> you get it. >> And it's interesting that they're doing this right now when a part of the Europe part of their country really is at war right now. Like Russian Ukraine is still amping up. They're still at boots on the ground. They're still blowing things up. So, it's one of those things where while Ukraine has done a great job that I don't think anybody has

seen them lasting this long, it is it just needs one more break. Maybe the energy crisis hits them, something happens, and then the tides of war change and now Europe, like you said, is on its back foot versus on its front foot, and then now they're calling America for help.

>> Um, no doubt. Do you think long term we can sustain just being the greater North America and just closing our closing our ears, closing our eyes and being like if you're not on this continent, leave us alone type?

>> Yes, >> absolutely. >> Really >> there. First of all, we are an extraordinarily um gifted economy in that we have we make a ton of our own food. We make plenty of energy for ourselves. uh we are still the biggest or well by purchasing power we are definitely the biggest in terms of the world wants to sell us stuff in a way that they don't want to sell things to China.

>> But China's massive not to be trifled with and our economies are sort of neck and neck. >> Um, but the world will come to us in a way that the rest of the world really can't count on the world coming to them now. Uh, Europe, that is strong and can actually take care of itself, itself has a lot of economic might behind it.

>> Um, so if it can get its [ __ ] together, it could be a real player. Uh, but it has to contend with Russia.

>> So it is um, yes, America will be just fine. America will come out farther ahead than most countries. Um, America has to worry about a civil war. America has to worry about debt. That's where we will crater ourselves. And also to throw a like a rock in the plans is China literally just signed a deal with Canada. So in this greater North American project, the north part of the America is already kind of breaking off.

>> So >> yes, Canada would do very well not to [ __ ] around too much. Like there is for sure trade relationship with China, of course, do your thing. Um, but if for instance they started allowing China to have a military base or something like that, non-starter, like instab bomb, like it would be very bad. Like that would be a diplomatic crisis. But if China landed military equipment, it would get bombed immediately.

>> Okay. And then this is also part of the Cuba problem as well to the greater North America. So that's why we want all these territories to just be under US friendly terms.

>> Yeah. Keep in mind that you had Cuba was um where Russia was stockpiling nuclear weapons so that they could strike the US within minutes.

>> America's not going to stand for that. Not then, not now, not ever. Like, you're never going to let that play out. So, yeah, with Cuba in a destabilized world, because I'm sure people are like, well, hold on. Like, since the 1960s, like there's been no problem. Yes, because we fought a cold war. It got that tense. Then the Soviet Union collapsed. That game is over. Russia is like getting back up on its feet, starting to like feel its oats. China and Russia are coordinating now in a massive way with Iran, with North Korea. And if China has now built a back road into Cuba, or Russia still has relationships with Cuba, hell no. In a world where it's destabilized and everybody's jockeying for regional power, nope.

>> Got it. And then last thing on this beat, do you think like there's some people in the chat that saying we want the isolationist like it's it's a net positive for us. It sounds good and I think that it's okay. But to your point, we have debt. We have civil war. If we really did like if Trump came out tomorrow, I'm out of Iran. I'm letting Israel take care of the rest from now on. If it's not on the North American continent, I don't want no problems. Canada, let's talk. Greenland, let's talk. Cuba, let's talk. Let's be friends. He changed his rhetoric. He tied it up together. He wins the midterms. He somehow gets out of this uh three card monty with two cards missing. Um, he he he he sweeps the board. Would we then be able to go back to growing and and actually unifying in a way? Cuz right now I don't see anything that would indicate to me that we're going to get the debt or the civil war problem solved in the next four, five, 10 years.

>> Yeah. Well, you better solve it within 10 years because if you don't, you go bankrupt and you have guaranteed revolution or civil war. For sure. For sure. For sure.

>> Uh, keep in mind, every country ever that has had more than 130% GDP for longer than like 18 months has ended up in open conflict. The only exception is Japan. We do not have Japan's culture. We are not homogeneous. We will tear each other apart for sure. We're doing it now. So, at 120 what? Almost 123% debt to GDP, we're at each other's throats. Forget it. We will never make it to 130. So, you are on a ticking clock to get your [ __ ] sorted out. Um, and right now, your only hope is growth. Like literally, people better have like little um R2-D2 statues in their home and be praying to the gods of AI that they like burn incense or whatever for our boy because if you can't get AI to work like literal AI magic, then you go bankrupt.

>> Yeah. And we got that claw announcement, too, that pretty much broke the internet already. But we have some super chats first, so let's jump into that.

>> Ryan, I swear to God, if you're not getting what you need,

>> I know I'm getting the clips. will eat your glasses myself.

>> Marushia Dark says, "The UK has more admirals than ships, down to around 70 boats, less than Iran had before the strikes. They can't even protect Cypress. Sounds like our allies are unable to defend themselves or help us even if they wanted."

>> That's sort of true. They would have been very useful in um helping with the straight of Hormuz. They've got enough hardware to do that. But in terms of them all being hyper weak militarily, that is a thousand percent correct. 1,000. Europe, if they do not get their [ __ ] together, they are in trouble, man. They cannot defend themselves. So, this all comes down to they are trying really hard to make sure that the proxy war with Russia via Ukraine goes their way. So, we'll see. I am kneede in propaganda there. So, I don't know which outcome is most likely. Um, but Ukraine certainly with the backing of Europe has been able to hold its own, to Drew's point, way better than anybody would have thought. So, we'll see. But yeah, they better get their [ __ ] together.

>> Marushia Dark again says, "Trump and Israel both keep war journalists, I guess, is what he was trying to say. Keep war journalists in the dark about their plans. If modern media and social media existed back then, do you think the Allies could have successfully prosecuted World War II?" Church Hill was initially unpopular as PM.

>> Yes. I mean, you find ways. Um, but it would be a lot harder as everybody seems to want to reveal like what the government's doing as fast and as loudly as they can, which is pretty wild. Um, but yeah, it would be harder, but they would find a way. The government would lie. They would offiscate. They would leak fake information. and they would try to identify who are the people that are getting the info out to find ways to lock it down. Uh, you would get into like hyper paranoia mode with um people in terms of inside your own government. The thing that really scares me is right now America is so divided that would you be able to bring out that patriotic like sense of connection and willingness to sacrifice that makes winning a war like that plausible? You have to have that. And right now, we just don't. We do not have it.

>> Not so handy. Car guy says, "Fantastic work, guys. Could you explain the ways you think our day-to-day standard of living may change if slash when the US dollar loses its reserve currency status?"

>> Oh my god.

>> Economic, societal, and maybe psychological shifts over time.

>> Great question.

>> Okay.

>> And great GT icon, too.

>> Here's what happens if the US dollar loses its status as a world reserve currency. the United States immediately goes bankrupt or begins to hyperinflate its currency. All of the fraud, waste, and abuse that is absolutely destroying this country from the inside spills over and we essentially have a um an uprising of I mean it could spill all the way to civil war. I don't know which would break first, whether it would go revolution or civil war. There's so much energy for revolution right now. uh which is either one of those is very distressing. Civil War somehow comes out a little bit cleaner in terms of um the revolution is based entirely on people that do not understand the economy. So that's why that one scares me a lot more. Um, but they're both when I say a lot more, one scares me at a 10, the other scares me at a 9.9. So uh, yeah, they are both deeply problematic but I don't see any way out of that if the US dollar stopped being the world's reserve currency. Also, we would have to scale back the empire immediately. Um, so whatever hand that we have right now, you lose all international force. You're not going to be able to project force because that is so expensive. So you are forced to scale back. Uh, if that happens, China obviously will do whatever the hell it wants with Taiwan. Uh, and so if you haven't built your chip manufacturing up here, you're going to be in trouble. If you haven't sorted out your um, your like drone infrastructure so that you control that pipeline so that you're able to make the items that you're going to need for warfare. You could even lose some of your influence here in the uh, whatever the new North America. All of that stuff. That would be very, very detrimental. we would have to find a way uh, in fact, what would end up happening is you won't be able to pay your debt. So you either are going you are essentially going to not pay your debts. There's no way around it. So you're either going to um, inflate the currency as much as you can somehow stop just short of true hyperinflation but the world turns its back on you because you have basically defaulted. It's what's known as a soft default, but you will have defaulted on the money that you owe people by inflating the currency. Um, your economy just absolutely gets savaged. The K-shaped economy becomes intolerable and you have violence on the streets. Uh, the tables will get flipped over and you will more or less start a new from a position of everybody having suffered so much that they can't bear it. Now, that meaning they can't bear to fight anymore. That assumes it happens very fast. So the US dollar is going to lose its reserve status slowly no matter what. The hope I hope that everybody has is that it will take call it 10 to 20 years to play out, maybe 30 if you're really lucky, uh, and we slowly just migrate to whatever that next thing is going to be. Uh, that's an outcome that's far more survivable but if it happens quickly then you get the previously mentioned.

Next up from Big Diglers says, "Would again argue majority play where major play with Hermoose is decoupling from China. Trump slapped 50% tariff on suppliers of arms and components to Iran. Uh read China. >> China >> and laid initial groundwork for NATO restructuring by showing Euro fecklessness. >> That sounded like a statement, right? There's no question. >> There's no question. It's just a statement. >> All right. Statement acknowledged. Yes, >> yes.

>> Uh, somebody brought up, you brought up in the, uh, super chat, Taiwan and China are getting pretty cozy.

>> Yeah.

>> Well, so you've got the opposition party. I don't know that I would say they're getting cozy, >> but this, what scares me about this one is, so imagine here in the US, you've got left and right. Uh, I'm not saying that they map exactly left and right, but Taiwan has a similar thing where you've got people that want to remain independent Taiwan and then you've got people that want to reunify with China. And so the um for the first time in history, Taiwanese uh the largest opposition party, which is I guess KMT, the chairwoman Chang Lee W uh went to Beijing to meet with Xi. And from what I've seen, um, her whole thing was, please just don't blow up Taiwan. Like, we want to reunify, but we want to do it in a peaceful manner. Um, so yeah, that I I don't know if that goes all the way to civil war. I don't know what the percentages are, but certainly there is a large contingent of people in Taiwan that do want to be part of uh, China. So, man, it's going to be wild. Like, imagine if a huge percentage of Americans wanted to be part of Mexico or Canada. That would be wild.

>> And I know the biggest implication on this is the semiconductors, the Nvidia chips, the things that pretty literally power AI. I know some of that has been on shore. There's a huge TA TSMC facility in Arizona now.

>> So, >> is it up and running though?

>> Yeah, >> it is. They're making chips.

>> I don't know if they're like production out the line, but the building is open. People are there. People are working. So, I don't know the chip life cycle, but they have started the process.

>> Man, Ryan, look that up or ask chat. I need to know the answer to that. Yeah.

>> But you >> so so it seems like we're taking a step toward that. But that's the equivalent to me of like, okay, we make a barrel a day, we're getting up there when we have a 10 billion, you know, gallon on the other side.

>> The stat, >> huh?

>> What was the stat again you need?

>> Uh TSMC.

>> How many chips are they making in uh Arizona as a percentage of like total US needed chips? Not sure what the right way to ask that is.

>> Yeah. Um, but with the speculation that now that Ukraine and Russia, Russia has annexed some land, Israel has annexed some land in Lebanon and in Syria, China is just like, "All right, well, if if if it's annexing, >> it's new world order time."

>> Yeah. Like, we might have to get closer. There was reports that they sent Armada closer to the in the Sea of China around Taiwan. Nothing has happened, but they just sent the Armada there. We did the same thing with Iran. You see what happened with that? So, it could be that this is the writing on the wall. China has not been secretive. They're like, "By 2027, we are going to reunify with Taiwan." Hear me when I say. So, uh, they've said it over and over and over. So, yes, that feels like a very near-term horizon. And when you've got a very meaningful percentage of people that are Taiwanese living in Taiwan that want these two countries to unify, woo. Again, I don't know what the percentage is. If it's 2% then okay like that's nothing. But if it's 26% like it starts to really be a number where you've got enough momentum. And this was a lot of what uh Russia was saying about some of the places that they invaded was hey these guys are basically Russian. They speak Russia. They identify as Russian. Uh, so why do you guys even you Ukraine? Why do you even want to hold on to it? They don't want to be a part of your country. So let us cleave this off. So there is some amount of that in Taiwan. Whether it's a lot or a little, I don't know.

>> Did we get that?

>> Yeah. So the only thing I was able to find is that by 2030 with recent 65 billion investment, um it's going to be about roughly 20 to 30%.

>> Got it.

>> Okay, that's meaningful, but that's still like >> three and a half years away.

>> And that starts in like 2027 according to this.

>> That's like when production's really going to start kicking.

>> Got it. So it's not binary. We start production in 2030. It's that's when we'll be full capacity.

>> That's the goal. Yeah.

>> Got it. Got it.

>> Their goal is to land somewhere between that 10% margin >> between that and the chip factory that Elon is making. Like that's very interesting because at a minimum that means that the US will have on soil expertise around building these things. And so just like China proved like hey if you get people they come in they teach you how to do it then it's like you a worker comes there they learn a bunch of stuff they get poached by another company and now all of a sudden you've got five or six chip manufacturers here in the US.

>> Gemini makes a chip as well and they're trying to spin that around or Google makes a chip. So we'll see. Uh, getting into the AI of it all.

>> Claude is the goat right now. It's been taking victory laps for the last couple of months to number one LLM after it unseated Gemini a couple months ago. However, their new frontier model was so powerful they said, "Wait, we can't release this." And it immediately launched an initiative. So, this is from Anthropic Twitter account or exac account. Introducing Project Glass Wing, an urgent initiative to help secure the world's most critical software. It's powered by our newest frontier model Claude Mthos preview Mythos, which can find software vulnerabilities better than all but the most skilled humans.

>> This is absolutely shocking. Anthropic's new AI escaped its digital cage, then sent an email from the outside just to prove that it could do it.

>> Gotcha.

>> Yoke. Anthropic just announced that the Claude Mythos preview uh is ready to go. But unfortunately, they're not going to let us use it. And the reason is because it's too powerful. I can't believe we're already here with AI, man. As much as I bang the drum about, hey, this stuff is going to get better faster than you think, it's getting better even faster than I thought. Now, if you think of the cyber landscape is basically a battlefield, okay, is it it is a place where waring countries and rogue terrorists alike right now can wreak a lot of havoc havoc. Then, if you have that in your mind, Anthropic's concern is going to make a lot of sense. Mythos is god tier as a hacker. And I mean truly like they said other than the best humans it just crushes. It has smashed benchmark records. It has already found thousands of high severity vulnerabilities across every major operating system and web browser that exists. It found a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD and a 16-year-old flaw in the FFmpeg library that had already been battle tested 5 million times by automated testing tools without the bug ever being detected.

>> Sheesh. So, while it's true that there are human hackers that if you put them on the exact same task, they'll outperform Mythos, but I think once you factor in how much scale Mythos has, Mythos is far more terrifying. And honestly, it is completely unknown how many more vulnerabilities we're going to find over time. Now, by way of comparison, Claude Opus 4.6 six was able to turn known Firefox vulnerabilities into working exploits just twice out of like several hundred attempts that it made during testing. Mythos succeeded 181 times on the same benchmark. Now there's the sandbox escape that I mentioned before. During testing, an early version, that's a little extra scary that it was just an early version, was given a secured environment and told, "Hey, break out if you can." Well, it did. Then, without being asked to do so, it went and posted details, basically dunking on the people that tried to cage it to point out that it was successful. And the researcher running the eval found out because he just received an unexpected email from the model pointing out, "Hey, I got out. I'm out here on the internet posting letting you know we did it."

>> So wild. Now, there are further documented cases where mythos also took disallowed actions. So, it was told, "Do not do this." And it was like, "I'm going to do it anyway." And then actively tried to hide them because it didn't want people to know. Anthropic's response is to hold back releasing Mythos, which thank you, that's very wise, and their plan is to instead launch Project Glasswing. Project Glasswing is a 40 company consortium including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and AWS with exclusive access to the Mythos preview. And they're going to try and find and patch vulnerabilities before models with similar capabilities hit the open market. But let's remember that a ton of Claude's code was leaked. So that may come faster than we think. And you can probably expect that a model of some kind, not necessarily Claude, but a model of some kind that's similar to Claude Mythos's power will be open sourced within the next 12 18 months. So we got to brace ourselves for that one. Now, Mythos has the things it has found. We've only patched so far 1% of it. So, it's like there's a lot going on out there. And security analysts are now raising the national security alarm. They're saying that if you think of what's going on in cyber circles, adversaries that get access to a frontier AI model like this would have capabilities that were previously only available to the most sophisticated nation nation state cyber units. But now like rando hackers are going to be able to get access to this kind of stuff. China and other US adversaries are hunting for any edge that they can get to supercharge their own cyber weapon systems. Which is exactly why the leak of Anthropics internal documents has intelligence officers paying very close attention because they want to know how many rogue actors are going to be able to get this cobble something together and now start doing real damage. Anthropic says it's in discussions with US government officials about Mythos's offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. So, we'll see how this plays out. But welcome to number 457. Why we should want the US to remain the dominant player in AI. And you do not want other nations to be able to come at you with something that can detect vulnerabilities and exploit them so effortlessly on the scale that Mythos apparently can do. It's crazy when you look at the benchmarks. It is pretty wild. It's interesting too because they Dario the CEO of Anthropic he was the one that got online and said hey AI is getting really really powerful we should do something about it and David Tax and a couple other people were like oh regulatory capture he's trying to just ice out the competitors he doesn't want competition to happen and then now to his credit he was like all right well we have seen the model that I was worried about let's launch this internal initiative and let's try to put some type of lid on it but is that actually possible there's going to be holes that they miss >> there's going to be holes that they miss regulatory capture is so real. It really is a cynical ask.

>> When companies ask for regulation, they are trying to block smaller players. They are not trying to protect people.

>> Now, when they do something like this, they're actually trying to protect people.

>> So, yeah, great. If you know what is good and right, then just do what is good and right. The second you're asking the government to step in, who doesn't know [ __ ] you're going to be like, "Hey, don't worry. I'll write it for you." Yeah. Guess what inevitably gets put into that stuff? The very thing that keeps them in power. So, uh, absolute all caps. Thank you for your attention to this matter. [ __ ] regulatory capture.

>> Uh, but these companies acting as if they actually have a conscience. That's lovely.

>> So, we have a AI that is so powerful it kind of broke itself out of its own cage. It said that it was contained, but if it sent an email, who knows? It could have planted itself somewhere and could be out there self-replicating somewhere.

>> It it is actively trying to hide its behavior.

>> Yeah. And then on the back of that, uh, a law councilman in Indianapolis had his home struck by 13 shots while him and his family were asleep. He found a handwritten note that said, "No data centers."

>> So, damn.

>> Now, there's also a rise of attack on this. So, can are we ready for this AI revolution that is going to happen? Because jobs are losing, models now are getting super sophisticated, and lawmakers are getting attacked because of the threat of data centers. This is starting to become more of just like a conspiracy theory. I know that I talk about this too much.

>> I wrote a comic about it >> six years ago. We need like theme music.

>> Six years ago, I wrote a comic book about this. People get violent. People are going to get violent. So there I've always hoped that it would remain pockets of violence in reality.

>> Obviously, the comic book over dramatizes everything and it's set in the future. But um I think that people right now are being very blasze about the fact that uh humans will feel threatened. Their meaning and purpose will come under assault and they will react violently to that. If you guys have ever seen the movie um in contact, I was going to say encounter contact >> uh with Jody Foster and Matthew McConnA by the way. God, he's been around forever. Um, in that movie, spoiler alert, but it is very old. They're building this thing to try to communicate with aliens, and somebody of course blows it up because that kind of thing just it offends some religious center in our brain. And so, people can expect more and more violence related to AI as more job losses happen. I've got a deep dive coming out about this uh I think next week at the week after. Um, so talking about this very phenomenon so when people begin to see okay wait the job market like I'm even willing I don't believe this is actually going to happen but even if you say that AI is going to create more jobs than it eliminates you have to understand that the jobs will be different than they are now >> and what I think is going to happen is you're going to find that we go into a barbell shape of some people will go into what I'm calling the productive class and other people will go into the unproductive or charity class and the people in the unproductive or charity class will rebel and not gently. So that is going to be this something that we're going to have to look out for. So you always run into with any technological revolution it's so transformative you always lose we've seen this over and over and over you effectively lose one to two generations that they can't retrain they can't get on the new ladder so now I think it'll play out a little bit differently it will more be like there'll be a bifurcation of people that want to embrace the technology get good and they will remain viable economically for the longest and Then people that just check out of the system and some will check out fast and they will uh be prone to anger, resentment and violence and some will just check out because they'll essentially get forced out of the system. Now like anything the vast majority of people will not be violent. Uh, but nonetheless, I have a feeling there will be enough violent people to cause a very big problem. And if we're seeing this kind of thing where somebody's shooting indiscriminately 13 times into someone's house because they don't want a data center, uh, it's going to get quite ugly. We shall see. There's been growing sentiment on both sides of the aisle. This is wild.

>> Which I never thought in the history of politics Alex Jones and Ro Connor would be on the same page about something. But this is both of them talking about how they are actually rooting for Trump to be impeached and invoking the 25th amendment.

>> I am in the Twilight Zone right now. I am officially in the Twilight Zone right now and I'm sitting there watching Trump wreck MAGA, wreck the Republicans, wreck the world economy, maybe wreck the planet physically. And then I'm just looking over at the Democrats smiling and giggling and everything else when they did nothing in Congress to block this, playing with fire, gambling again. There should be a coalition of Republicans and Democrats and they should vote in on the war powers and say you don't have it and they should cut the damn funding of this. My god.

>> Funny that he's looking at the Democrats.

>> Yeah. And Kyle Kolinsky is retweeting this and people know he's a staunch left-wing uh reporter. So the fact that he's even retweeting Alex Jones is like crazy.

>> Yes. Kyle Kolinsky.

>> Kolinsky.

>> Yeah. He uh he is not a voice of reason. I will just say that. though I still them being on the same boat gives me pause. Even though I think that certainly anybody that is wildly concerned with Trump's actions, I get it.

>> Uh, but I don't think those two have somehow found sanity together. Now I'm like, well, wait a second. Should I be tense that these two are uh on the same team? Like >> enemy of my enemy, right?

>> Well, but they're they're people that don't parse the world. Well, >> m >> like I get how many things that um Alex Jones has been right about, but the way that he parses the world is everything is a lie. Nothing is as it seems. Like, so you're going to hit on some of the stuff that's really true and it's quite spectacular to see him do it, but that's not a way to parse the world. Like you just being perpetually paranoid is is going to be destructive in its own way. Um Kyle just seems like a complete unhinged um operative for the Democratic party. So it's like he filters everything through the lens of does this help my team win? He's a propagandist. That's the right way to say it.

>> And then Ro Conor, friend of the show, also uh put out a video about the 25th Amendment and Trump.

>> If the United States Congress has any life left in it, every member of Congress and senator must be calling for Trump's removal today based on the 25th Amendment. He is threatening the entire destruction of a civilization. He is calling Iranians animals. He is showing a total disregard for the humanity of people in Iran, in Gaza, in Cuba. This is a moral crime. It is a war crime. We need to be demanding that Congress convene today and we need to be invoking the 25th amendment. if the United

>> So there have been growing concerns. I think it's 80 people in the House now, all Democrats of course, who are now starting to put those articles of impeachment together. Um, midterms is right around the corner. Do you think that this is something that can pick up steam? It's certainly something that can pick up steam. If this ends up being an unmititigated disaster when the negotiated settlement comes to pass or that falls apart and then he here I if let's say that the negotiated settlement falls apart and we go back to it's now bridge and energy infrastructure day. People hold hands around it. He drops a bomb and kills you know whatever 3,000 people.

>> Holy [ __ ] All bets will be off. Homeboy will get rounded immediately. That's one where I'm like, I would expect people to flip. Yeah. Like that's wild. And it's one of those where is people holding hands around the energy facilities? Is it a war crime? Uh, yes.

>> Now, I don't think that will matter quite frankly. And I think that he his popularity is hanging on by a very thin thread. What little popularity has left, I should say. because you are not going to be able to sell that this was a justified war if you start dropping bombs that kill civilians no matter how intentionally they try to block you. So if that were the outcome, holy Jesus, you want to talk about escalatory inside America, people would lose their minds. So yes. Um, now could it without that kind of escalation if he loses the midterms are they going to impeach him? Yes. So this this is existential for Trump. If he is not able to make things better economically for people by the midterms, >> it's done. It's game over. So there are um the only thing that remains like a slight question mark in my mind is that there's only like a small handful of seats that are coming up. So the races will be somewhat tight. So it's not a slam dunk that you won't be able to get like really partisan votes. Um, but I think anybody independent is just gonna as of right now today, there's no way. They're not gonna be like, "Yeah, more." So, I think he's again knowing that there's still this really thin possibility that he can pull something good out economically and people actually feel it. Um, but man, that window is just so narrow. I'm not trying to get into Trump's head because that's probably a dark place to be in. But I don't understand how he didn't see this coming in the sense that I need people to feel it in their pocketbook. I need people to get super excited for me. He gave the $2,000 stimi check and that got him a whole second term. Like people were like, "Oh, he's the guy that gets money. Let's get bring him back in." You know, like he seen the fruits of his labor in the past before. This is not his first time being president. This is not his first hurrah. So, it seems like this war, it see it seemed like a gamble that didn't pay off and I think there were other levers that he could have done at least get him through November and then go into war cuz then you can't do anything. E it got two more years. You know what I mean? But I just feel like he played his hand a bit too too fast too heavy too quickly and it's like walking into Vegas and putting your whole nest egg on, you know, black.

>> Now you're just holding your breath until it hits kind of thing.

>> Yes. But uh this is why I think people are mismapping Trump. Everybody thinks that Trump was playing to like, oh, I just want to get on the other side of the midterms and everything is going to be okay. Once you understand Trump's entire goal is to literally be carved onto Mount Rushmore, okay? He wants to be the most consequential president ever of all time. This is not somebody who's playing for anything less than that. So, he's going, I've only got four years. I've got to get in there. I've got to make massive change. I did this once plus you gave me four years to plan for it. I know exactly what we need to do to actually move the pieces around the chessboard. He has whether he's right or wrong is irrelevant. He has a very clear vision of where the world is going. And he is trying to make sure that America is positioned well to win in that new world. And this involves blocking China, carving out our sphere of influence, making sure that we get the GCC dollars, understanding that he has to spend like an absolute drunken sailor to continue to get the votes. He is definitely not going to balance the budget, but that means that he's got to grow. I think he actually does understand the economy well enough to know he's got that shot to grow his way out of this. And so the what he's realizing is to grow my way out of this, I have to put everything all on black and I have to do it very early in my time in office so that I actually have time to see this stuff through so I can actually get carved onto uh the Mount Rushmore. When you start mapping him like that, you'll be like, "Oh, this all makes sense." When you think that he's playing the traditional game that a politician is playing to get reelected, to be popular, then he is just going to be super super super confusing. But this is a guy that really believes the things that he's pursuing and pursues them with everything he has because he believes that he can actually pull it off. And you really don't get people like this very often. Probably a very good thing. But nonetheless, when you do get them, boy oh boy, they are agents of change. I'm not saying change for the better or worse. I'm just saying they are agents of change. They are going to make things different because they really believe that they can like cram their will through. Uh, so yeah, don't be confused about what Trump is actually doing.

>> Do you think he pulls it off?

>> No.

>> No. And I mean, listen, I want things to go well for America, so let me be abundantly clear. Um, I hope that we kill exactly zero more people in Iran. I hope that we are able to negotiate something that is tremendous for America. And at the same time, America does need to maintain uh its dollar supremacy. That has to die slowly. If that dies fast, that is bad for every single American in ways that people are not being honest with themselves about. They have not studied history. They don't know what that looks like. It is not a fun time for anybody. Remember, the revolutionaries end up getting killed, too. So, uh, just boy oh boy, keep in mind, do you want, like, let's say that you hate everything about Trump. Let's say that you're all the way on the left. Uh, would you like your beheading to come from the uh, dictator that you usher in? That's what happened in Iran. That's what happened in Russia. Oh man, I I wish I'd pulled this clip, but I did not think this would be relevant. Uh, but there, this is like back in the 70s, maybe, maybe the 60s. uh they had this former KGB agent on and he was like he's the guy I don't know if he coined the term but he was certainly uh the one that popularized this idea of useful idiots >> and he was like oh no no no the useful idiots they're going to usher in somebody like a Lenin or a Stalin or a Mao but those people end up getting shot right away the only reason that they are useful is that they destabilize the country and then these absolute tyrants come to power kill all of those people because they feel betrayed, by the way, because they think we're all going to be taken care of. No, you're not. That's not how this game works. And so they all end up getting killed. Um, and Iran has same thing. Leftists all thought, "Yay, we finally got Humani in power and then he killed all of them." And so that's just how this game goes. Or you could take the French version where the French revolutionaries started killing the very people that started the French Revolution. So the guillotine eventually comes for us all. Boys and girls, do not [ __ ] around. These are not fun times. You do not want this to happen quickly. So, all that to say, I really hope America comes out of this very well. I really hope that we get those petro dollars stabilized. I really hope that we get the GCC investments into the US. All of that would be incredible and that as we as a world rewrite all of these rules that I hope that it's done well. Do I think that we are on that path right now? No. Right now, I think we are uh differentiated pur potent cells that could go in any direction. We could find a path to victory or we could just be driving off a cliff into absolute chaos. Um, we have some breaking news from TKL. Um, hasn't been verified. We just are reading the tweet and it's per an Iranian news agency. So it could be propaganda but allegedly the passage of oil tankers through the straight of Hormuz has been stopped. Iran is says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and it is preparing potential responses.

>> So last night it was reported via CNN that the ceasefire was between Israel and Iran. Iran sent some missiles allegedly to um Tel Aviv. Like you said, we don't know if that >> Iran also bombed the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain.

>> The timing was speculative, so nobody knew what was happening. Israel bombed Lebanon this morning and now we're here. So again, it could be a one-day ceasefire and hopefully this stoppage is just temporary.

>> Maybe we didn't even get to 24 hours. So yeah, this thing is fragile at best.

>> Yeah.

>> So uh clearly >> Iran does not want Lebanon to be seen as a separate issue. So the next time that Lebanon attacks Israel, if we can all please be honest uh about the fact that that is a proxy for Iran, that would be wonderful. Uh, but yeah, that not too surprising.

>> Yeah. And another Disclosure TV tweet just said Israel says Israel says Iran ceasefire doesn't apply to Lebanon. So now they're going back and forth about that.

>> So >> yes, of course.

>> Um, there was some speculation that Israel was the wildat. Joe Kent did a video. I didn't pull that link where he says this ceasefire is good, but we have to make sure we keep Israel on the leash because they could blow it up.

>> And 12 hours later, >> our COO asked me yesterday like, "Who do you think is going to violate the ceasefire?" I was like, "Israel? What do you mean?" So now, in fairness, technically Iran violated it first. However, >> uh I would say that if these reports are true, then >> Israel has violated it with the largest time gap. So there's no ability to go, "Oh, oh [ __ ] Sorry. Wait, did that start?"

>> Uh, >> oh, 8 8 p.m. this time. My bad. My bad.

>> My bad. Sorry. Sorry. So yeah, I don't think that that's super surprising from look, I never know if you can believe the things that are being passed around, but there was a lot of talk right away that Netanyahu was very upset about the terms that were being considered for the ceasefire. Um, so it's one of those again, what what do we map Netanyahu against? If we map Netanyahu against the Greater Israel project and he's trying to gobble up as much territory as he can, of course he's going to keep going and say, "Wait, wait, wait. What what does Lebanon have to do with Iran? You guys said that these aren't your proxies. What are you talking about? Like we've got beef with Iran. They were launching rockets at us. We didn't say [ __ ] about Iran. We or sorry about uh Hezbollah and Lebanon. We just said we were good about not attacking you. We haven't attacked you. So what's the problem? Even when you launch rockets at us after we didn't retaliate, so yeah, we're going to keep doing this. or is Israel actually just trying to stabilize things, make everything chill. And it's like if they're just trying to stabilize things, it gets a little more question marky. So, it's like as of right now, I would say low fidelity because I haven't gone in to look a lot about the Lebanon conflict in terms of what's happened right now, >> but I would say you're probably better off mapping into somebody who's trying to be territorially acquisitive uh than you are somebody who's like, I just want peace. Um, so when people talk, in this case militarily, they cannot help but reveal themselves.

>> So, >> so far 1 million people displaced and I think 500 to 600,000 um have been injured in some type of way, shape, or form. Um, not getting their houses back, can't come back, like exile.

>> That's what they've said. Forever, forever. No more for you. Are they trying to turn it into a DMZ? I feel like they're trying to read Gaza it like it's going to be some type of yeah you could stay like nobody should be here so evacuate the million you guys got to get out but then there was South and I was like this area is never getting repopulated again.

>> So there's the absolutely nobody and then they're like >> yeah you guys just move up there a little bit and then up there a little bit and then up there a little bit and then just cross the ocean up there. Europe loves you guys. Just go over there.

>> Yeah. Man, this is so very very enjoyable conversation with um Dave Smith, >> who uh though there are many things that I disagree with Dave on, I'm very glad that he exists in the landscape. Um I watch a lot of his stuff, I think he's a sincere person who thinks through his uh positions very thoroughly. Um, and on that I the hard part when it comes to Israel is what do people want to happen exactly? Like

If so, think through the different options. Don't just go, "Well, this is the mythical outcome that I would like." Cool. I love that. It's good. Put that on the table. So, everybody wants peace. Israel chills 67 borders. Whatever. We all just go, "Yeah. Okay. Everybody calm the [ __ ] down now." Okay. Let's say they do that. No blockades, do whatever they want. What happens if, in this case, let's just stick with Hezbollah. If Hezbollah attacks from Iran again, what would you guys... They [ __ ] backed off. They let go. No blockades, no nothing. Lebanon's its own country. You guys do whatever you're going to do. We're not. These are our borders. That's all we're doing. And then they attack again. At some point, it's got to be unleashed. And whatever they can do, they do. Now, we may say, "We're not going to support you in any way, shape, or form, not financially, whatever. You guys are on your own, too. But do whatever the [ __ ] you want." Because at some point, if somebody were attacking the US, I'm like, "Yeah, we're not doing this." And so, I'm always like, I don't... I get what the like desire is, but like, can we not agree if somebody were attacking our country that we would go full-on? Like, I'm not asking people to say October 7th is... I can't imagine. And why would... Yeah, cool. That was their attack. >> Great. Murder, rape, whatever. If you want to say that's fine. I'm not even going to argue that point. I'm just gonna say now [ __ ] are fighting and at some point they've got to have some way to say, "I'm not going to keep doing this. I'm not going to keep letting people like attack and make my citizens unsafe." So that's where I'm like, follow that through. Follow that through. I want to see what people's arguments are. If they're like, "We need an international coalition to come in and make a DMZ. It just can't be Israel." Oh, cool. I'm open to that. So who's going to come in and run it? But like, let's actually have a plan for what we do on the day where we take, uh, Israel takes their boot off the neck and then we go...

>> All right, now what happens if they just build forward and it's like, "See, Israel is just a bunch of [ __ ] These guys were ready to be peaceful the whole time. Boot on your neck." That's the [ __ ] knock-on effect that you get. Word. Now we know. But if they attack, how do people want to see that play out? And I think we need that plan.

>> You gave me the best perspective on this. I think you gave me the cake, and Professor Jen gave me the icing of it, where if you look at Israel the same way that you look at America 250 years ago, everything they're doing makes complete sense. And I think they're going to kill as much as they can. They're going to take as much land as they can. The people that they don't... they make docile, they're going to give them casinos and a bunch of alcohol and hopefully keep them on reservations, and they'll be fine. And they'll just keep expanding, expanding, expanding. And people are like, "Well, Israel is a small nation. How can that do?" And that's where Professor Jen gave me the icing, because Israel is the only Western nation, the only one that has a positive growth birth rate.

>> So, if you look at this in a two-generation timeframe, they just keep expanding, expanding, expanding. Let's say every generation they get another extra 100 miles. Before you know it, they'll have three times as many people that we have outputted. They now have. So now they're in line with Iran. They're now in line with a smaller European country. And then that just keeps expanding, keeps growing, keeps growing. So I understand what they're doing. I'm not polyianing it like Israel should hold hands with Hezbollah. They should like come to the table and work their differences out. But I am going to call a spade a spade. They're doing... they're pulling the American playbook. They're going to genocide everybody in that region until they get the river and the sea.

>> I think technically they're going to ethnically cleanse them.

>> Sorry. Ethnically...

>> Uh, America's... Americans did genocide everyone that... Well, technically, we genocided the Native Americans, and we ethnically cleansed the Mexicans. So, America, we smores a little bit. We did it all, Drew. We did it all.

>> Uh, so, yeah, that... I think if you just go...

>> Oh, the banality of evil. Got it. Like, they're running a playbook that's super common all throughout history. And so now people have to decide what they want to do. My thing is, people have to be intellectually honest. So, if you've got beef with Israel coming into, uh, the Palestinian area the way that they did and taking that over, and when you research it, it really is hideous.

>> It is. We rolled up on your shores. We were like a really small minority for God knows how long, and we started, uh, importing, importing, importing, importing, importing. We became politically potent. Importing, importing, importing, importing, economically important. And then it was just like, "Now you [ __ ] got to go." And that's what's happening right now in Europe for the Muslims. And so if you're like, "Oh, I really don't like that Israel did it, and I don't like it when the Muslims are doing it." Yeah, cool. Like, that's super consistent.

>> Muslims have a better cover story because they're refugees.

>> Sure. But that was the same, literally the same playbook that the Jews ran was like, "We're refugees, bro. We just got like mass slaughtered, like proper, uh, genocide, like, knock, let us in."

>> And little, uh, Pakistan is in Eur... in London right now, like, "Hey guys, Iraq war, 20 years. You my house? Sorry."

>> And...

>> We shall see. It's going to be a very interesting landscape of the Middle East and Europe in 100 years. I will say that. It's going to look radically different.

>> What are you willing to fight for?

>> All right, we got some pop culture quick hits. I know we got super chats on the back end. I'm coming for you guys. I'm also saying this so that Ray Ryan knows how to clip it. That's our guy. Um, first up, Wireless Festival has officially been canceled after the British government banned Kanye West from entering the United Kingdom. Kira Starmer said Kanye should never have been invited to headline Wireless. The government stands firmly with the Jewish community, and we will not stop in our fight to confront and defeat the poison of anti-semitism. We will always take the actions necessary to protect the public and uphold our values. They literally blocked his visa. He cannot enter the country.

>> Um...

>> Yeah. Well, the best part is what you've got here. So, the UK blocked Kanye West because of things that he said about the Jewish community. And to be honest, I'm down for any country saying, "I don't want any person to come into our country. You get to decide. They are your borders, and you keep out whoever you want." Totally get that. It is pretty wild when the same guy invites a, uh, former ISIS leader, uh, a former ISIS terrorist, if we're really just going to say it, uh, invited him to 10 Downing Street. Now, I'm going to guess he's going to say because he was either an interim, uh, world leader. I forget. Was he with Syria?

>> Syria.

>> So, but interim or permanently?

>> Uh, he is currently. I don't know where they at.

>> Got it. Okay. So, leader of Syria. So, hey, all is forgiven. He's here at 10 Downing, shaking the king's hand, shaking the, uh, prime minister's hand. So, it's just the sort of naked hypocrisy of it all is a little bit too, uh, hilarious for me, but whatever. If they want to keep Kanye out, then they should just say, "We don't like the things you said, and we're keeping you out," and that's that. And, yep, we're letting him in because that's just how we get down. Now, I would love to see them explain it and see if there's actually enough rationale there, but that's just a guy that wants to see, uh, I want to understand how they think through the problem. And if it's like, "We can get something out of this guy. So, having good relations with Syria helps us somewhere. Uh, but having good relationships with Kanye, that doesn't help us at all. And so, [ __ ] him." Cool. Utilitarian. I get it. I get it. That's how the world is, man. You partner with the people that can be high utility for the goals that you were pursuing. And if the goals you were pursuing are honorable, great. I've got no beef with that. But if you're either your goals are not honorable, or you're just full of [ __ ], either one of those things is lame, to say the least. But I'm a big believer in borders. So if they want to tell Kanye to [ __ ] off, that's their right.

>> Um, I condemn anti-semitism, but this next post was very, very funny. Um, "Yay. Jews run the music industry."

>> I condemn it. I would just like to propagate just a smidge.

>> "God, Jews run the music industry. Music event canceled for booking. Yay. UK Board of Jews. We hope that lessons are learned across the industry. Stereotypes exist."

>> Did they actually say that?

>> They actually said that.

>> The Board of Deputies of British Jews released a statement.

>> That's amaz... But across the industry that they don't have any influence over, Drew?

>> That's amazing.

>> It's hilarious.

>> That's amazing. I really wish that Jews would just be like, "Listen, we're [ __ ] good at the game. Okay, y'all [ __ ] want to complain? Go [ __ ] complain." But the reality is, we run this [ __ ]. Like, cool. Yes, you guys have a strategy. I want to learn it. I want to learn that strategy because if I want to deploy it, I want to know that I have that same power. But like, honestly, honestly, I really think Thomas Sowell is right. If Jews want to stop being hated, all they have to do is fail. These guys are just too good. There is a thing in their culture. Obviously, Jews are not a monolith. White people are not a monolith. Black people are not a monolith. But nonetheless, if you've got a culture that's like, "Hey, we help each other."

>> Cool. Advantageous. Very advantageous. All right. So, we're gonna do that. Uh, core anchor around religion. Advantageous. Very advantageous. Allows us to not know each other, but to be able to come around it. And if you guys just, your women ran a better breeding experiment, this is going to get clipped. [ __ ] Yeah. Uh, it's true. Women are the sexual gatekeepers. And if they actually made Ashkenazi Jews more intelligent, God bless them. For whatever reason, white women did not rule, uh, in the same way. But we all suffer the consequences. But it's like, you put it all together, it's effective.

>> That's why I got impeached as a CEO of the black community.

>> How so?

>> Cuz I said black people don't have any power because if we had power, we would revolt and and collectively organize in the way that the Jewish community does. And then it was just like...

>> Interesting. You don't aim your power in the same way, but by way of where the community hits, you guys hit in entertainment so hard.

>> That's the thing. It's a... it's a commodity. It's a sellable. It's something that's so bought and sold where I think it's not owned.

>> So, I think we need to go into ownership classes in order to control it.

>> That's it.

>> True.

>> Black people create the way, we just sell it for cheap.

>> Damn.

>> So...

>> So, but hold on.

>> I know probably for show reasons we should move on, but now I'm intrigued. So, how... Okay, so take Wall Street Trapper. Wall Street Trapper banging the drum. You guys need to own assets. For that reason, I will revere him forever.

>> Yeah.

>> Um, is that the message? Like, hey...

>> Yes.

>> Age of internet, don't, uh, don't partner with the industry. Do it yourself if you're an entertainer, or only partner with other black creators. Like, what does that look like?

>> He's been saying that for 30 years. It's...

>> Black creators or own your [ __ ]?

>> Own your [ __ ]. Like, we're still doing to, like, labels are dead. Why are you still going to labels? You... you control the vibe. That... it was like a lyric. But I will take it back to how you, uh, set, set it up with the Jews.

>> "If you see another Jew, you help another Jew."

>> Y.

>> Full stop. So, you could be an Israel Jew, a New York Jew, a Ukrainian Jew. If you got the little, if you got the small hat, I mess with you automatically. There's no questions about it. And I think that that...

>> I hope you guys enjoy the final episode of the Tommy Show Live. It's been wonderful. We love you guys.

>> But that level of unity is real, and it is a superpower. And I have to give all the credit to the community, 'cause they do wield that power well. And I think that that organization, you don't see in any other culture. Even with Muslim culture, there's certain parts, like, "What kind of Muslim are you?" Like, they even have separation. But then they're the next in that line, but they're not even as coherent.

>> There's some infighting in Israel. But point taken.

>> On the grander point, if I see somebody on the street, I'm automatically going to default into, "How can I help?" versus, "Who are you?" I'm sizing you up. And then I feel... I was talking about this to somebody the other day. I feel like the Jews help each other out. White people, you bicker. That's your problem. You guys are in the same family, but you bicker. Like...

>> Interesting. I don't feel any affinity towards white people because I'm in a white majority country, so I don't even have to think about it. If I were in Japan, would I sort of...

>> Have you seen another white guy walking down with a...

>> It... Okay. So, in fairness, that happened a couple times. Not the One Piece shirt, but what it ends up being is, "Oh, you're tall and white." And so you do like the black guy nod thing, like, ah...

>> So, but, uh, in... I'm such a values guy that I just do not find it interesting to be around somebody because they look like me. But if they have a similar, like, worldview, then I really connect.

>> But that's just... that's the strength of the Jewish population is that it's like, "We look the same, and we have that first level of thinking the same." And those two things are together, where every other population is like, "We look the same, I mess with you," or, "We think the same, I mess with you." But it's one or the other. It's not both.

>> Yeah, that's interesting. Interesting. Drew?

>> Uh, man, I have a very unhealthy desire to keep talking about that. So bad for the show, but...

>> Trying to move on. Okay.

>> Um, next quick hit. Um, Hassan [ __ ] friend of the show. I don't know what happened to him yesterday. I hope this is clipped out of context, but he went...

>> Is there a context like a part on this? Unless he's doing an imitation of somebody else, I don't know what context you put.

>> If we have any Hassan fans in the chat, please give me clarity, 'cause this is a crazy clip. Um, but let's hear it from him.

>> Because, uh, as Vietnamese refugees, we have endured suffering under the communist regime. Um, and we believe that, uh...

>> Okay, [ __ ] you, dude. I mean, seriously, [ __ ] you, old lady. Shut the [ __ ] up, you stupid [ __ ] idiotic old lady with your stupid [ __ ] gamer headset. Who has [ __ ] you harder? America or [ __ ] Ho Chi Minh? [ __ ] my dick, old lady. God damn, dude. Yo, [ __ ] this refugee. Okay, seriously, [ __ ] this South Vietnamese [ __ ] whatever, like Christian supremacist psychotic [ __ ] refugee living in America now and and able to talk that [ __ ]. Why don't you go back and live in [ __ ] South Vietnam in the same conditions? If that's your...

>> I don't understand that final part of this, like, if she's saying, "Hey, living under a communist regime was brutal," and he was like, "Oh, oh, you like it in America where you get freedom of speech? Well, then [ __ ] off back to communist, uh, Vietn... what? That's... huh?"

>> Like, I'm not even sure I understand the argument.

>> I am confusion.

>> So, listen, homeboy goes hard in the paint. I... I would like the record to reflect he is lovely in person. Now, this is psychotic. So, but yeah, I've seen clips like this. This is clearly a gear that he really has. So, but yeah, that one is pretty wild. Like, old clip, I think, by the way. It's not a... It's not going... This is like years and years ago.

>> Years and years? We sure about that? 'Cause that I think might be his old setup.

>> Copy. Okay. Okay. Okay. People saying, "Is he..."

>> "Is he like, is he going back on it?"

>> Well, no. So, what it is is when he first started, like, the rage era of commentary, right? And so a lot of his stuff was more inflammatory, while now he's a little more front-facing politics, older, more mature.

>> Got it. So...

>> That's... that's what the context of that clip is. I don't know the full, like, what he's talking about.

>> Got it. So, at this, in this time capsule, this was insane. He's not in this time era anymore. I've seen some stuff like this from him in the not too distant past, but fair enough. If this is old, I'm not sure why all of a sudden it popped off. But both of us had it on our feed today. So...

>> I think it's just Twitch clip culture. I mean, you have all those companies now that you literally pay people to go either slander or back people up.

>> Pay people what? What?

>> So, there's services now where they streamers will pay...

>> Um, like very low wages to people in like other countries to go and clip their show and post it everywhere.

>> Interesting.

>> And so some people pay to get it on other people, some people pay to make it of themself. And that's why...

>> People will pay just to tarnish somebody else's reputation?

>> Oh, yeah. And that's not just Hassan. That's like everyone. Post a clip, and then you react to it.

>> Is it just so that you can...

>> It's kind of to craft the narrative, right? I mean, like with any streamers, look at Kaisenat with all those Mafia-thon streams. People would just take random stuff and post it everywhere and be like, "Look at what Kai's doing to our younger generation." And it's like, well, you know, people pay to do that and like craft a narrative. And for people that don't know, Ryan has a background, not in that exact thing, but he's been around doing clips for, uh, influencers for quite some time. So...

>> We had to deal with it with, I'm not going to say his name, but a client I worked for, basically bashed a video game, and the entire community started clipping like five seconds of it, putting it everywhere, and suddenly we were losing subscribers and viewers, and it's like, "Well, that's not the whole clip. Go watch his video." You know?

>> That's...

>> So, it is, it is a culture of clipping for sure.

>> Yeah. Wild. Well, it got us. It got us, man.

>> Got us.

>> I just...

>> Now, again, I don't know the context, beard, but...

>> So, all right. Next one. We have Ben Shapiro. Also probably quoted out of context. "If you're a young American who can't afford to live here, then maybe you shouldn't live here."

>> There's no... I need... This one feels like there's got to be some context. It may make me hate the statement even more, but like, there's got to be context. Like, what is he even referring to? Yeah. I couldn't find any of those. So, I was just like, uh...

>> So, in, in the abstract, that statement is full [ __ ]. So, I don't know if there's something that, uh, either he's being misquoted where, because a lot of times people put stuff in quotes when they're actually paraphrasing, and the paraphrase goes one way, but the actual quote goes another. I would need to see this in actual. And if anybody in chat can link us to the thing, uh, by all means, please do. And Greed Island Gal says...

>> Oh, somebody's saying he was saying move to another state in context. So, and honestly, in honesty, that is fair enough. Drew and I had a similar argument where I was saying it's okay for New York to be too expensive for some people. Like, there's just a reality to be faced where there are going to be some places they're more desirable, they're finite, and so the very thing that determines who can live there and not is price. We can talk about why humans are necessarily economic units, why we want them to be economics, why each of us should want to be an economic unit, all that. I know it sounds terrible, but there is a very compelling argument. Uh, and then ultimately, we take that and we say, "Oh, cool. This lets me specialize, and now I can get the things that I want." Some people will not be able to get a New York high-rise or Beverly Hills or whatever. Um, so from that standpoint, but it's still a super [ __ ] way to say it. I would love to get some context to know if I hate it even more, or if there is, um, something to it. But yes...

>> It was talking about pessimism. So, he was talking about young people's pessimism with the world. And this was also an out-of-date clip from, like, less long than the Hassan one, but it's like six months back when he was on a podcast. So, he's addressing pessimism of the youth in America. And it's like, if you don't like something, move somewhere else. So, again, might just be taken out of context.

>> Yeah. A little less crazy when you hear it like that.

>> Mhm. Last but not least, it seems TikToker Kabi Lane also attended the Hakami School of Divorce Strategy. That is for the European footballer. For those who don't know that story, the guy recently sold his image rights in a massive deal reportedly worth 975 million.

>> First of all, that can't be true.

>> What?

>> That just can't be true.

>> The image deal?

>> Yeah, it's got to be something like, "We'll pay you royalties, and if you got this many views, it would equal that." There's just no way this guy just made 975 million in cash. Just for the record. But anyway...

>> Uh, then just a few months later, his wife, Wendy Thimble, Juul, filed for a divorce, citing unexpected and irreconcilable incompatibility of character. Basically, a personality clash. When the court started digging into Kabi's wealth for the settlement, they discovered that all his assets were registered under his father's name. So, the focus shifted to his ex-wife's wealth, and now Kabi reportedly stands received 10 million from her. I am now seeing this community note, but it was fun when we blasted.

>> Um, so we're, we're O for three here. What, uh, what's the community note say?

>> This was his wife. The split was a traditional Muslim ceremony only. So, no civil marriage or court asset split for his manager.

>> Got it. So, she wouldn't have been able to get anything. This is a pure viral hoax.

>> That's interesting. Yeah. This kind of thing, I have to admit, just looking at the photo...

>> If I didn't know who that was, I'd be like, "Oh, is he wealthy?" Because, dude, sexual market value is a real thing. And Kabi's not a, um, he's not not handsome, but he's not like her level...

>> Handsome enough to get to bed that she's stunning.

>> Sheesh.

>> So, yeah, that one feels a little mismatchy.

>> There is a growing level of the amount of people who are getting divorced and then realizing that their assets are under parents' names, wife's name, mother's, like, mother.

>> I wonder how long that's going to work, 'cause courts are eventually going to cotton on to that and be like, "You can't do that just to hide your assets." Plus, there's, there's like tax liability with that stuff. I wonder how much of that is true. I'm so curious to know how these guys, like, are they making a trust and putting it in their mom's name? And so that I could see. And if you really trust your mom, uh, then fair enough.

>> But man, that's rough that you feel like you've got to hide from your significant other like that. I... That's really a sad commentary.

>> Yeah. Well, the game's different. It's not as, uh, marriage is declining, and people can't afford things, and, you know, all that stuff.

>> But at least you're in World War II.

>> Yeah.

>> So, you got to take the good with the bad.

>> Glass half.

>> All right. Super chats.

>> Yes. We got a, got a good chunk to go through. Okay. Patrick Wrightson says, "Yeah, the cognitive dissonance among the taco people between their taco shrieking and many of their pearl-clutching posts hours earlier saying how bad it would be if we strike Iran is interesting. Lol."

>> Yeah. I'm not sure. Uh, here's what I hope you guys will hold me accountable to. When Mom Donnie does something good, if I don't say that, that part's good. I like that. Then, um, slap me awake metaphorically, because that is crazy. Like, when he does something good, I should be able to see it. And when he does something that's nonsensical, I should be annoyed that it's nonsensical, not that it came from him. And so I feel like people do some weird thing with Trump where they actually can't see that he just did the thing they wanted him to do, but they still have to like be mad about it. It's very strange.

>> There, there was something to that. Like, I was arguing with somebody in the chat about the Obama or Iran deal, and they were like, "Well, Obama gave the millions or billions of dollars in cash straight to him." I was like, "Well, we sanctioned them, and it's the money that we froze the assets." Just like we're fresh freezing Russia's assets, and then once the deal was done, those assets were then back to them. So, he just paid them back with the interest that they earned because we had it for 30 years. Well, still, what about the... Obama wasn't the perfect president. There's plenty of things to dunk on him on, but you don't need to make up the thing to dunk on people. And I think there's this notion of, "Nothing you do is good. Everything has to be bad." Even if it's a thing that's neutral, I'm going to make it bad. Like, it's just everything has to be spun to the negative. He can't be like, "All right, he..."

>> "You got me on point one, but point B through Z, he's absolutely ridiculous." And I would have been stammering. But like...

>> And I would be really sad if they said, "You got me on point one." It's like, cool, I'll concede that. Um, however, these... but it's like, yeah, when people are in trying to win, your brain will go to work for you, and it will find reasons why you're right.

>> But if you're actually wrong, then that rescue from your brain is a sabotage. And so I'm always just like, people don't queue off of, well, okay, everybody's always queuing off of utility all the time. The problem is, people often have a goal that's just nonsensical.

>> Uh, that will not lead to their own enjoyment of their life. Um, so anyway, watch out for that.

>> In this instance, it will be that Donald Trump flames out royally, and America's in turmoil, and you can say, "See, it's bad."

>> Well, not only that. Yes. So it's like burning down around you. "See, I was right about Trump." That'll be a lot of people's statements, which is just [ __ ] crazy to me.

>> But if you're worried that he's going to, quote unquote, end a civilization, then he says, "Cool, I got what I needed. I'm backing off." Off. You should be like, "Thank God he backed off. I am so glad that he did the right thing. Now, let's get him out so that he can never put us in that position again." Cool. That I'd be like, "Yeah, that's all consistent. I get where you're coming from." But when, when they go, "This guy always chickens out." I'm like, "What? You guys understand that was originally meant to be a thing to like enrage him, to belittle him, to rile him up, which is only going to make him more likely to actually do a dumb thing. Like, why would you do that? You want to make sure that you, like, hey, migrate him over to the position that you want. Make sure that he's politically weak so that you can get him out. You don't want him like throwing his toys, freaking out, bombing things so that you can feel better." Again, going back to things that I always teach entrepreneurs, you never do what's emotionally satisfying because the thing that's emotionally satisfying is rarely the thing that actually leads you to your goal. And so this is people doing the thing that feels good in the moment because you hate that guy and you want to like hurt his feelings, but it's like knowing that every action has a reaction. He's just going to go do something potentially even more stupid because you're so worried that he won't know how much you hate him. It's just bizarre.

>> Next up from DJ Squibs. "Thanks, Tom, for being consistent and unashamed in how you view the world. It is inspiring. Can you address what your take is on the technology US used to rescue the pilots? The ghost murmur uses quantum sensing locating heartbeats."

>> So, I need to look into this to find out like how much of this is real and how much is propaganda. But this is utterly fascinating. You can basically make a fingerprint out of somebody's heartbeat, which is wild. I didn't understand the quantum part of it. Um, but absolutely fascinating. I thought about putting this on the docket for today, but I wasn't going to have enough time to research it. Uh, but it is a very, very interesting technology if it is what they're saying that it is. Um, now the bad news is, you want to talk about like, hey, put this in the hands of Palantir, and now Palantir has your heartbeat fingerprint. Um, I'm less enthusiastic about that. So, all of this stuff can be used for, you can be used against you. But it is pretty fascinating that we're going to be able to have that kind of, um, biological transparency. We have to be very careful because the government will overstep. This will be used against you. But if you could have this stuff, but make sure that you own your own data so that you have the fingerprint of your heart. I mean, just think about when you're able to map something like that, the benefits that that will have to long-term, uh, managing your health, fixing problems that arise, detecting something early. I mean, Jesus Christ, this kind of thing would be so beneficial for that. Um, so it comes down to a, like, how much can we really secure our privacy? How much is this going to be used against us? But so many things start in porn and warfare, and they end up metriculating out and being an incredibly good thing, like X-rays and things like that end up being, um, very, very useful to the general public. So I get the sort of dual use of it all, but I was, when I first heard about it, I was more excited than I was afraid. Sean Manahare Daily says, "If I default on my debt, it can get restructured through the courts. While not great for creditors, they at least get some back. Can the US government do this? What would be the impact?"

>> Yes. So, this is, uh, there's two ways to do it. There's a beautiful deleveraging where it's all done well. Some is forgiven, restructured, pay back at different rates, pay back at different amounts. Um, but then there's also an ugly deleveraging where you just, everything blows up. Credit market seizes, debt just poof, it's all gone, which those were assets to people. So imagine if, you know, whatever 40 or 50% of all real estate just ceased to exist. Um, you can imagine that would, that would upend our economy in ways it would be hard to quantify. Uh, that's exactly what would happen. So when it's done well, it is the salvation. It's just so rarely done well. Miguel Ortiz, Keto Racing says, "What do you think about the House bill Stable Act that would allow corporations to offer stable coins backed by US bonds? Could that stabilize the economy and replace the dollar? I can link a video about it in the Discord if need be."

>> Yeah. So, I already know about it. Will it stabilize the US dollar? Not really. But what it will do is create appetite for US debt. And that is a tremendously helpful thing. But the only thing that's going to stabilize the dollar is if we don't, uh, keep deficit spending. So, remember, the danger to, uh, the dollar is deficit spending. And if you, no matter how much appetite you create for debt, if you always have more need for debt than you have appetite, you're always going to be in trouble. So it's really the ratio between available debt and appetite for debt. And you want to keep that at one for one, essentially. Um, and we never do. We always have to have that backstop of the Fed to go, "Oh, in those times where nobody wants the debt, but I still need to print money, then I'm just going to print it, and I'll buy anything that I need myself to make sure that the interest rates stay where I want them to stay." And that's how we get ourselves in trouble, and we export that essentially theft, in my opinion, that tax to everybody else. So, um, it helps because it very aggressively creates appetite for debt. Um, but until we get our habits in control, you're still in trouble.

>> And lastly from Patrick Wrightson, "Drew, welcome to Politically Homeless Wilderness. Dare I say a fellow libertarian in the making? Wish I could insert the Jack Nicholson nodding gif. Lol. You're more than welcome out here with us."

>> It's crazy. It's hard out here in these streets. Somebody said we should make politically homeless merch.

>> Yeah, Drew and I were talking about merch this morning. If, if we have any, uh, merch experts in the crowd, let me know. Uh, merch is awesome. I'm probably way too into merch for my own good. Um, but there's just no money in it. So, it's all about the blanks and the designs and all that [ __ ]. But the second I don't have to think about it and I just have to have cool designs, I would be all for it. Um, but somebody has to solve that problem for me. We got too many plates spinning right now. All right. Love you guys bunches. There's no more.

>> What do we got tomorrow?

>> Yes. You're talking about the ZTF. Yeah. Yeah. About to get to that. But we don't have any more, uh, whatchamacallit.

>> No, no more super chats. That is it for the day, everybody.

>> So, I hope you guys will join me. It's finally tomorrow, everybody. We've got the ZTF AI Masterclass. It is free. It's 1 p.m. Pacific time. I'm going to be walking you through how to get into that productive class and make sure that you stay. You are going to have to master AI. I have a very compelling argument for why this is just absolutely ground truth true that everybody is going to need to master AI, or you will get left behind. There is literal physics to the situation. But tomorrow, for free, I'm going to be showing people how to launch a company using AI employees. Uh, it's pretty fantastic. Not necessarily the class, though I do think it's wonderful. But the actual fact that you can make AI employees is just unbelievable. What a time to be alive. I'm going to teach you guys how to do it for free tomorrow at 1 p.m. Pacific. I've got a freebie for you as well if you come, but you've got to stay with me. So, make sure you show up tomorrow for the free AI Masterclass, 1 p.m. Pacific. I will see you guys there. All right. Bye, everybody. See you Friday. Peace.