Transcription
Hello everyone. I trust that you had a wonderful week thus far, right? Believe that I believe that most of you have been doing the right thing, right? Which is which would be, you know, just following rules only trade whenever we have higher news events and so on.
So as you guys can see right today we had news at 2 p.m. which was FOMC meeting minutes which is you know different from the you know actual volatile FOMC right the real you know liquidity insertion that we will have will be tomorrow right it will be Thursday during the New York session right and then we will have you know a continuation of that on Friday during New York session right.
So, of course, you guys must know by now that Q3, right? It doesn't matter which cycle you're looking at. Q3 usually inputs the most liquidity in the marketplace. And if not, then it will be Q4, right? So, if you were to, you know, rate each quarter, which you know is more volatile, then it would be Q4 would give the most volatility. It's just that whenever it does, it's you it's us it's usually not as frequent. So yeah, it's just not as frequent as Q3, right?
So Q3, you know, usually gives a lot of volatility or a lot of opportunities and it doesn't matter if we're looking at the daily cycle, if it doesn't matter if you're looking at the weekly cycle, the monthly cycle, right? It just does not matter. Even looking at the equalenial cycle, right? It's the same thing, right? And this is why we have the um presidential elections during Q4, right? because it's a news event that you know will give a lot of volatility or inject a lot of engineer liquidity into the marketplace but it just it's just not you know just doesn't happen as frequently as you know the liquidity insertion that we have in Q3 and then of course after Q3 right in the ranking of volatility or quote unquote liquidity you have Q2 and you you already know that Q1 usually does nothing, right?
So, right there alone, right? That's a lot for you to take in. Right? Again, let's let's say it again. First, you have Q4, then Q3, then Q2, then Q1. Right? So, in terms of liquidity, it's like reverse Q4, Q3, Q2, Q1. in terms of you know which quarter will give you the most movement and of course this is fractal right and as you know time is fractal and price moves according to time. Nice. So that was you know very good to begin this session with.
So yes, as we expected or wanted to see right this week so far right and this is a weekly candle as you guys can see right price has been you know just moving up right for the US dollar index right just you know following in the direction of the crafting correlation that we highlighted here the last time we went live right and of course here you can see right here we have this failure swing Right. And this week you can see that we just you know dropped for the euro and also the great British pound. So of course right we're expecting right price to just follow the direction of this cring correlation which means higher prices for the dollar index lower prices for the euro and lower prices for the great British pound. right at the moment right there is a cracking correlation between the sync of price in you know between the FX market and the index futures market right so if you look at index futures you see that price is doing a completely different thing or you know in a completely different way being that price is you know consolidating and just dropping for the euro and the found while you have the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow going higher as we expected. Right?
So here, right, we could see price reach for this low and ultimately this fair value looking at the great British pound. Taking note that this is a weekly time frame, right? And we can expect manipulation above the true open of this week you know in terms of the FX market and then we could see price continue right or right that does not completely have to happen right we could see manipulation the opposite direction then see MT then we could have a shortterm rally but we're leaning more to the downside since right we have the higher time frame credit correlation which is the C SMT.
So here you can see that we had price right trade into this very bad gap right here. This is the daily time frame right? So right here right this is a model in itself right and remember that we expected the dollar index to just continue higher this week. We expect that the euros would fall at the same for the British pound, right? So here you can see that price trade into this fair gap. But this candle right here, right, which was Tuesday's candle. And remember, we don't trade Monday or Tuesday this week. So this is a way for you to gauge your daily bias, right? And just by me saying that you know that you know it's important and you should take note right. So this is the daily time frame. These all of these candles right represent you know data which presented itself for you know a 24hour period right so this candle was Monday here this was Tuesday and here this was Wednesday. So Wednesday's candle expanded as we as we expected due to the fact that we had a news event, right? That's why it did so. But prior to Wednesday, Tuesday's candle right here, what was it was a precision swing point. So this candle right here, this is a up close candle for the US dollar index. This is an up close candle for the euro, right? On a regular day, right? A normal day, you would expect this to be a down close candle. If this is an up close candle, right? So, due to the fact that we have this cracking correlation here, price is already has already lodged itself within this fair value gap right here. And if you cross, you'll see that we also have another gap right here. Right? So this is a balanced price range, right? So you know it's easy to expect that this would happen. Remember we already talked about expecting higher prices, right? Which means that as long as we saw a cracking correlation, we should expect prices to go higher for the US dollar index and price to go lower for the euro price to go, you know, lower for the British pound. Whenever you see price like this, right? And as long as you see the precision swing point form on the daily time frame, such as here, and we'll just use the for this example, right? As long as you see this happen, right? And this, you know, this is, you know, more powerful if the day that the precision swing point forms is a plan is a day that has no news events, right? So this day right it's going to depict or give the information in which this day should use. So this is a daily time frame. We drop to the 4our time frame. One more time frame and here we are. So here this is the daily fear valley gap. This from this range here to this this range high here this r to this range low here. This was the daily precision swing point. Right? This is what this was here. You can see that we had a cutting correlation, right, between the British pound and the euro, right? So on the 15-minut time, you'll see the SMT right here, but I could just put it there for you guys to see, right? Where we had the British pound trading above this high right here, right? And the Euro just failing to do so. And also we had the US dollar index failing to do so as well. Right? And also you should al always remember that these candles right here. Right? These precision candles are very important. Right? So here we can see that we have a uplo candle here up close candle for the euro and also up candle for the US dollar index. before price turns around, you'll always see something like that, right? Always. It will always be there. So here, right, as long as price pulls back within this range, and you can see that price is not clear here at all. It's just shot, right? But as long as price pulls back within the range, you could be trading in the direction of this precision swing point, right? And the direction was that we expected price to go lower. Also at this this candle right here, right, which this was the high, you know, which we used to depict the higher time frame for your Vagat. But since we're looking at the one hour time frame right now, it just looks like a old high, right? So price were at about this old high and this created what? It created a quote unquote breaker, but this is the, you know, actual breaker. So, this is the real one, right? This is the one that works. And here, right, at the opening of this breaker, what is it? The it is the true weak open. And as you guys remember, this is what creates a high probability breaker because right here we had price fall then trade about two week open then it fell once it break broke below this low then it became high probability. Price trace back within it consolidates around the midpoint then we continue lower here. You can see that price, you know, did 80% of what we expected it to do. So, yes, we talked about these highs right here that we expected price to be drawn to these highs. So, expected price to be drawn to this high, this high and this high as well, right? But the thing that we did not get was for price to run below these lows. And you know, this is something that happens. It does not happen a lot, right? But it does happen and that's totally fine, right? Whenever you see things like this happen, then you put your attention to the new week open gaps that overlap with fair value gaps. So if they don't overlap with fair value gaps, then you know, you just shouldn't be paying attention to them. If there is no crack in correlation and also here you can see that you know this is a difficult feat to accomplish right so we expected remember we expected the euro to go lower and at the same time what do we expect for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ the Dow we expected those to go higher and they usually move in 10 right so we expected them to break away and there was a lot of you know content that was pieced together you know in a ready format for you to you know understand without me you know talking for 1 hour in the last session that we had. So here price broke higher, price broke higher and price broke higher as we expected but we just did not get you know these lows to be ran out right and whenever you see something like this right so yes we did have SMT right between these wicks right here right and on the higher time frame the forward time frame these were wicks right we did have SMT between these wicks But you know this would not have been high probability for me right. So I I was waiting you know for price to just break below this low once we had secret SFT then you know we would expect this to happen which did happen already but yes it's okay. And here looking at the 4hour time frame you can see where we had right here we have this high probability entry right so here on this specific candle here and this candle is important so here we have you know multiple confirations but I will just talk about this one right so price trade within this gap Right? And it overlaps with new week opening gaps. Even if it was just one new opening gap, right? That would be enough. Right? There is still doesn't really matter if it's one or two. Right? Once you see this happen, right? Price fall into a fair value gap and they have new week opening gaps, expect higher prices, right? Especially when you see price leave equal highs like this, right? Especially when you see things like this happen. So obviously looking at price right now, where do you expect price to go? It's obviously going for over main draw that we already established, you know, in the past stream this high for the and do this again. Made a mistake right here. So yes, it's already it already took the high for the S&P 500. We're expecting it to go above this high right here and we could see price continue above this high as well right and again right once you see price fall within a fair value gap. So here this candle specific candle right here is within a fair value gap. Here this candle was not within a fair value gap. Right? That is a threatening correlation again. Right? We had price consolidating right here. Price fall fell back within the consolidation while price was expanding right here. Also you can see that you know we had price within the S&P 500 here break above this high price in the NASDAQ broke above this high but while price was here at this specific point right what happened the Dow so yeah the S&P 500 did not break above this high as yet but the NASDAQ did correct myself the Dow it did not it wasn't even close this high wasn't with even within the 50% of you know Monday's range right so that is a credit correlation and serves as a mean of expanding or expecting expansion due the fact that we had expansion here expansion here we had consolidation here then you will you know see the Dow expand aggressively. And here, right, we expected price to do exactly what's here, right? We didn't expect price to just completely blow through this high. We just expected it to fall and before going higher, at least take this low out, right? And the Bitcoin. So, I hope you found this useful. again. We will be back hopefully. I will try to see if we can be here Saturday, right? If not, then it will be and it's easy to to know. This is for like those of you that don't know the schedule already, right? If you want to know when I'll go when I'll stream next week, then you just look at the news for next week. If there's no news on Monday, then we will go live on Monday at 6 PM Eastern Standard Time. So that's the time that we will be going live next week, right? And then of course following we have Wednesday, right? And just by looking at this, we know when the higher is going to form for next week already just this week. So yes, I hope you found this useful. Good luck and good chew.