Transcription
Bitcoin is at 103,236 dollars at the moment we are speaking, and I think the drop is not over. So in this video, we are going to discuss all of this a little bit, my arguments, my probable scenarios, and why I think we have not reached the bottom yet on Bitcoin and that it is very likely to have a second bearish leg. So before we start, thank you all for joining us. Many of you joined us following the last video where, well, we were here, we were around here at the level of 107,500 dollars, we were a little above the resistance, and I was explaining to you why, in my opinion, we were going to drop and that we were a few hours away from the crash. I had titled this video "A Few Hours from the Crash." Well, obviously, I am happy with what happened, in any case, happy to have been able to make a good analysis and also happy to have been able to warn you in time, because that is not always the case. But, but there you go, it's not being Madame Irma. It's not a Black Swan that made us drop, the FOMC, the meeting of Jerome Powell and so on, who tells us that he is rather hawkish. You know, it's a hawk's attitude, how do you say it? It's being a hawk on monetary policy, meaning not lowering rates or at least having a more cautious policy on lowering rates and so on. So that's what Jerome Powell did. What you need to understand is that it was already priced in, it was already visible in the markets. In fact, at some point when you invest in the markets, you shouldn't be satisfied with the big investment theses. You have big investment theses that are mega-trends. I don't know, for example, Bitcoin adoption, indeed, there is a sort of reduction in Bitcoin inflation with the halvings and so on every 210,000 blocks and so on. All of that allows you to say that likely in 50 years, Bitcoin will be more expensive than it is now. Okay? But that doesn't allow you to invest in the short term. When I see many people talking to me about inflation, talking to me about monetary policy, about lowering rates and so on. Certainly, it's something that is interesting. Macroeconomics is interesting. It's what drives the big market cycles. But that's not what will make you decide whether you buy or sell. You need to understand that in financial markets, there are many people who think in an on/off mode, meaning I buy or I sell because, well, ultimately, those are the two options you have. But you can nuance the statement. That is to say that, I saw quite a few people saying, frankly, we don't know, maybe we are in a bear market, maybe we are not in a bear market, it's 50/50 and so on. If it's 50/50 according to you, well, put 50% of your cryptos in stablecoins and keep 50% of your exposure in crypto. You will already be better off than the majority of people who make a one-way bet and say, "I'm putting 100% in stablecoins or I'm putting 100% in crypto." telling me, well, if it drops, I have 100% stablecoins, it's great. If it goes up, well, I'm missing out. And conversely, the one who is 100% in crypto, well, if it drops, they are completely missing out. There are many people in the comments here. So, I have made quite a few videos for you. I have been bearish for some time, since since here actually, since this rebound. Since October 21st, I have been bearish on this market. I still think we are going to go a little lower or at least lower than the current levels, 103,200. It's possible we will rebound on the levels that served as support, it's not impossible, but I think the current levels are not bottom levels. I will explain why, of course, throughout the video, and I have indicators on the whales, particularly on the big, big portfolios, which are very interesting. You will see. So here, I was rather bearish, and well, naturally, when you are the only one to be bearish in a market where most people see it as an excellent opportunity to reposition themselves to buy, well, you get a lot of criticism and so on. Well, I accept them, it's the rule of the game, I expose myself. It's completely normal. But you need to understand that here, there were already risks, there were already things that allowed us to say, "Be careful," we will see them next, but "Be careful, you need to reduce your exposure." Reducing exposure doesn't mean that at that time, I was not 100% in stablecoins. I was not at all 100% in stablecoins. Here, from memory, we had switched to 50%. Okay? We were at 50% stablecoins, meaning here, we were more serene about the maximum probability of reaching the top of the range. And little by little, well, we reduced our position as we saw that the sky was darkening above our heads and that it was going to rain. And when it rains, well, we protect ourselves, we take an umbrella. And so, naturally, well, we started to take out the umbrella at that time. Then, well, we put on raincoats as well at that time, and then until we reached precisely here at 110,100 dollars. I have a message on our private Telegram channel saying, "I am completely exiting the market." We were here on the pullback, we had precisely here, you saw a break of this famous trendline. Reintegration, we slide on the trendline, and then we have the confluence of the two trendlines. You see these two big trendlines joining at a point. And there, we saw that there was a lot of euphoria and that the market, however, was doing absolutely nothing. It was very, very difficult to go up. Well, that was a bad sign, and well, good, good for us in any case to have de-risked. I understand that it is very frustrating for those who stayed in. I myself have experienced this kind of drop in the past. So, before we go a little further into the indicators, I wanted to inform you that we hold the AMF certification, so the Financial Markets Authority, which is the stock market regulator in France for everything related to investment, financial investment advisors, wealth management advisors, and so on. This Financial Markets Authority has created a certification that guarantees that the people who address you are fully aware of the regulatory aspect, of the risks associated with investment, and so on. So, I hold this AMF certification. It's very recent. So, there you go, I wanted to tell you because Medusa is a French company and is now certified by the AMF. So, personally, I am certified by the AMF. There you go. So, we will continue with the indicators. So, first of all, what you need to understand is what makes the Bitcoin market go up or down. So, I see many theses. Liquidity, monetary policy, many things. No. You have to be much more basic than that. What makes Bitcoin go up is that there are more people buying than selling. It's supply versus demand. Then, we can elaborate on what causes supply, what causes demand, and so on. Okay? Demand is when you, me, whales, retail investors, institutions, when these people want to buy, we are asking to buy Bitcoin. Well, naturally, if on the other side we have people willing to sell it to us, okay? If in a group we have 50% of people who want to buy, 50% of people who want to sell, okay? Well, generally the price will not go up because we will easily agree on an average market price. Okay? If, on the other hand, we have a huge imbalance. So, this is really very, very basic for many. This is, well, it's really very basic, but you have to go back to this because for many, it's really not a given, I get the impression. So, obviously, when we have many buyers and few sellers, well, the price will go up. So, now, what we need to determine is where the buyers are, who the buyers are, and who the sellers are. Because indeed, liquidity will have an impact. But why does liquidity have an impact? Because if there is a lot of liquidity, there are a lot of buyers. Okay? Because when you give millions of euros to people, people will want to buy them and do things with them. So, in this case, people are rather banks. When you give them thousands of billions, well, they invest them. Okay? They don't leave them sitting in a bank account. No one does that in the financial world. They will invest them, sometimes in finance, in stocks for example, sometimes in money markets, in bonds, sometimes in gold, in commodities, there are several sub-categories, and so they will start buying. So, they will become buyers. So, why is this liquidity important? Why are monetary policy and rate cuts important? It's because it will quickly create tens, hundreds of billions, thousands of billions sometimes when we are really in monetary printing as we were during the Covid period for example. And all this money creates buyers, and so we have our famous imbalance between buyers and sellers, and so the price goes up. Okay? It's as simple as that. So, in this video, we will try to see who the buyers are, who the sellers are. Are there more buyers than sellers? We will therefore propose three scenarios. The neutral scenario, the bullish scenario, the bearish scenario. Okay? We will assign a weighting to these three scenarios. If I think that here the bearish scenario is 60%, the neutral scenario is 10%, and the bullish scenario is 30%, then in that case, I will adjust my portfolio. If I am someone who, who has a bullish bias and so on, I am mainly afraid of missing opportunities and I am okay with the idea of taking drawdowns. I will perhaps expose my portfolio 50/50. If I am rather conservative, what I want is a measured rise in my portfolio, but what I especially don't want is to suffer big losses, well, I will perhaps completely exit the market. I will perhaps go 100% stablecoin. Okay, that's a possibility. So, we will continue this in the video and try to see how we weight the different scenarios. So, the first is traditional finance. Traditional finance has supported us for quite some time. You see here the inflow curve. Okay? Total sum of millions of dollars that have entered Bitcoin via traditional markets since the approval of ETFs, which was, from memory, January 10th or 11th, 2024. Here, we had a big, big increase in this supply. Okay. What do we have recently? Recently, we have a lot of selling. So, we have the total column here. I mainly look at BlackRock's portfolio because it is the most revealing. What you need to know is that there are many other ETF issuers on which there are many strategies that correspond to arbitrage and so on. So, in fact, you will have people who will, for example, buy Bitcoin on the ETFs and sell it on derivative contracts, okay? To have what are called delta-neutral strategies. That is to say, you are not exposed to Bitcoin price fluctuations and you only take, for example, funding rates and so on. Well, these are advanced strategies, it doesn't matter. In reality, what interests us is mainly BlackRock because BlackRock, well, it seems, well, it's a completely empirical method. That is to say, we have noticed for now, well, about a year and a half, almost two years, we have noticed that BlackRock has been rather revealing of the position of institutional finance and traditional finance investors. Whether they tended to accumulate or distribute Bitcoin. Here, you see that not only are all issuers selling, okay, for quite some time, but yesterday, we still had 375 million dollars in sales on BlackRock's ETFs. So, that's still very, very significant. Okay. We have another representation which is this one. You see that we had a lot of buying at that time. At that time, that's why I was very bullish, at that time. Obviously, that supported us because, again, supply and demand imbalance. Here, we had a lot of demand and supply that remained the same as before. So, the price goes up. Okay, as simple as that. And that eventually faded. The problem is that it faded and there was no follow-through. In particular, what I look at is the whales. Okay? On-chain analysis, the analysis of the movements made by the different portfolios, by the different portfolios that hold Bitcoin. We can look at them via the blockchain. That's the advantage of this blockchain, which is public and transparent. And well, we can look and we see that well, we had here this famous cohort. So, I will display it here in orange. I've been talking about this for a while. But they were selling. For a while, it wasn't a problem because they were selling while we had this famous cohort here which was very bullish. Okay, if I display both, we had a total that was rather bullish during this whole period. Here, we had strong buying pressure from this cohort, portfolios weighing 100 to 1000 Bitcoin. And here, we had a slightly bearish pressure. Okay? It was rather what is called profit-taking pressure. Okay? And at some point, the problem is that when you sum the two, well, at some point, we created an imbalance which, instead of being positive, became negative, and moreover, we had a halt in inflows from traditional finance. So, at some point, it corresponds to the moment, well, precisely after the famous crash of October 10th. Here, you have a moment when the large portfolios, here, weighing, well, the dolphins weighing 100 to 1000 Bitcoin, stopped buying massively. These portfolios started selling very massively, and traditional finance stopped buying. And well, naturally, that creates this slight downward trend. So, it's not extremely violent. Many people are outraged and so on. So, indeed, in the short term, it's tough, and it's especially tough for altcoins. But if we zoom out a bit, we notice that, well, it's not that dramatic. We are still in a daily downtrend and so on, but weekly, monthly, and so on, we are still on a very marked bull run. So, here, the bull run for the moment is magnificent, really trough, trough, peak, trough, peak, trough, peak. We always recover areas where many people panic and so on. We reach areas where whales reload, and we go back up. Will that be the case? Well, we'll see. I think so. My long-term opinion is still that this is a trough in an uptrend. I would be ready to change my bias, of course, if my indicators prove me wrong. But for now, indeed, all the macroeconomics and all these things tell us that we are rather well-oriented. Now, the short term shows us that traditional finance is selling, large portfolios are selling. We see that there is a reduction in this. So, that's rather positive. We have a reduction from these portfolios, so they are stopping a bit, they continue to stop buying, but we have these portfolios that are stopping selling massively. So, they are not massively buying, but they are stopping a bit. The issue is that, you see here, we have a sort of convergence of these two, of these two lines which tend to approach the zero line. Okay? And the problem is that when this happened in the past, it wasn't a very good sign. Okay, I will show you this, for example, here, when we had the big distribution zone during our 2021 cycle. Big distribution zone, it reduces, it reduces until it reaches a climax where we have our big capitulation, and then, well, the cohorts go back to almost zero. Okay? If I also display the mega whales here, you have here a zone where, well, it's accumulating. Okay, now I will show you another place, for example, on this bull run, different phases. Here, you see, hop, it reduced. Here, it reduced the selling pressure, and hop, we had the break here to return to accumulation zones. Here too, it was the case, just here. Here, it was quite abrupt. You see that portfolios suddenly stopped selling and here stopped buying, and boom, we had the break, and we made our bottom. It was also the case here. Anyway, I won't do it for every instance, but you understand the principle. That's why I think we haven't reached capitulation. In any case, according to this indicator, we haven't reached capitulation, and we will have to go lower. So, my particularity, as you know, is that I give you my point of view. I see many YouTubers and so on who don't commit, who say, "I don't really know, I might position myself but I don't know, the price could do this," a lot of conditional statements and so on. I explain my point of view because the conditional is not what makes the decision you will make. If you decide to buy, it's because you are convinced that, well, we've talked about it a bit, but the bullish scenario is more probable than the bearish scenario, and vice versa. So, you need decisive positions. Okay? In investment, it's decisive, even though it's uncertain. Obviously, it's uncertain. Obviously, I don't have all the knowledge, and I can be wrong, and I am, I am necessarily wrong. But what's important is to be wrong less often than the times you are right. Okay? To do that, I have a quantitative approach. That is to say, as you have seen, I have many indicators. So, I'm showing you a part of them, but I have many indicators that allow me to make my decisions. And then, this quantitative approach allows you to make the best possible decision, but a decision that will be decisive. There comes a point where you say, "I buy, I sell, I hold, or I don't hold." It's as simple as that. Okay? So, we will continue a bit with the rest of the indicators, but there you go, my point of view is really like that. I do active management, so unlike passive management which would consist of buying Bitcoin and letting it sit for 10 years, I do active management. That's what I do for my investor group. By the way, for those who wish to join us, I will talk about it a bit at the end of the video, but you have the possibility to join us via the links in the description where all my analyses are shared in real-time. Well, several times a day at the moment, because volatility means we need to communicate a lot with the group about taking positions, things to do with altcoins, and so on, all of that. So, there you go, that's in the investment group, but for those who wish, you always have the possibility to follow us on YouTube. We try to transmit maximum value. Okay? So, we continue with this indicator that nobody looks at. Well, I never see it. I never see it, even though it's extremely relevant. It's the Whale SOP. Okay. So, the profit-taking done by whales. Here, you see that it's the same, we have a lot of profit-taking, and that's generally not a good sign. We want a purge before we can find interesting buying levels again. You see that here we had gradual increases. Hop, until we reached this point. So, you see the dotted line at the top. Hop. When we reached that point, we had the correction, and that's when we started to have the purge. And at that moment, when we had the purge on this indicator, it indicated to us that, yes, the whales had reached the level they wanted to reach, and therefore, that we could start rebuilding a position. And when we went to look for neutrality levels, that's when we had our famous bottom right there. Same here. You see here we had a gradual increase right here. And when we had precisely, well, right here, when we had a decrease in this indicator with a more significant neutrality level, that's when we had our bottom. Same here, same here. Anyway, I won't do it for every instance, but you understand the principle. This indicator is extremely powerful because, once again, we have the ability to track what huge portfolios are doing. You have access to the account statements of Warren Buffett and the main big investors. Well, I'm exaggerating, it's not Warren Buffett who invests, he doesn't care about crypto, he's said it several times. But you understand, it's the big, big portfolios here, we can track them. It's a huge added value. Well, I don't understand why we wouldn't use it. And here, in this case, they are telling us caution, caution, caution, caution. So, I am cautious. That's as simple as that. Regarding derivatives contracts. So, you should know that when you invest in Bitcoin, you can invest in spot, meaning actually buy Bitcoin and hold it for yourself, or you can expose yourself to Bitcoin price fluctuations without holding it. So, you will make bets, quite simply. You will make bets on where Bitcoin will be in the coming days, the coming months, the coming weeks. And here, you see that we have, on funding rates, okay? Funding rates translate market euphoria. It's simply a system that allows for neutrality in the positions taken by different investors. When we are in the green, it means that there are more people buying, and therefore we pay the sellers to bet on the downside, in order to balance things out. It's as simple as when you have a football match between Real Madrid and a small team from Ligue 2 in France, well, everyone will bet on Real Madrid to win. So, if you bet on the other team, you will get a huge bonus. You will be told the odds will be 10 to 1. That is to say, you will be able to win 10 times your investment. If the other Ligue 2 team wins, you will multiply your investment by 10. Whereas if Real Madrid wins, since everyone bets on that, you will win 1.01 times your stake. Okay? Well, it's exactly the same here. And when we are in the green, it means everyone thinks it will go up. When we are in the red, it means everyone thinks it will go down. So, here, the advantage is that we have a continuum. Okay? That is to say, we really have variations in these levels. The higher we are, the more people are unanimous that it will go up. The lower we are, the more it means we are unanimous that it will go down. You see that here, during bottom phases, these are generally phases of extreme fear where people say, "No, it's going to break." At that time, we were at 54,000, I believe, from memory, 54,000 dollars. At that time, everyone was saying, "We are going back to 45,000, 100% sure." And so, in fact, when there is a, when there is unanimity from all investors, and in this case, often retail investors, well, you know that the crowd is always wrong, and so, well, that these are precisely moments where we have reversals. Here, we have reversals when it's upwards. Here, we are unanimous that it will go extremely high, to the moon, and so on, well, we have reversals, and here, downwards. You see that here, we are still rather euphoric and we have not reached this famous capitulation zone. Okay. If we look here at the Fear & Greed Index, you see that at the Fear & Greed Index, we are at 27%. So, we are not yet at extreme fear levels. Okay. So, we are in fear, honestly, that's already quite a lot, but we haven't gone low enough yet. And we can also see this right here. I will show you on the order flow. So, order flow is the analysis of the order book. On this analysis, we are able to see precisely the behavior of investors. So, here, we are looking at the short term, we are looking at the short term, and you see that in the short term, we have precisely the famous funding rates that you saw just here. Well, here we have detailed it for one contract. In this case, I have it right here, the Binance contract. So, here, you see that in the short term, here, we have funding rates that are increasing. Okay? So, this means that here, we have a resurgence of euphoria. We have people again who think that, yes, we are going to go up. You see? So, here, we are at 102,900. Well, you know that the crowd tends to be wrong. So, the probability of a movement like this is significant. Okay. Regarding liquidations, we can try to see what's happening, but liquidations also allow us to translate euphoria and fear in the markets. And here, you see that, well, we have quite a bit of euphoria that has entered with liquidation levels below the price that are starting to be numerous. Here, if I look a bit at the longer term, well, here I am on a 3-day chart. On 3 days, you see that, well, there is quite a bit of liquidity to be recovered here. There is also here, I admit. For example, here, you see that we had quite a bit of liquidation right there. That's also why we came to recover these price levels. Obviously, when here you have many people who think it's going to go down, okay, everyone is bearish, well, the price tends to rebound and liquidate all the people who came to short opportunistically. Okay? Regarding funding rates on altcoins in general, you see that we are in extreme fear on almost everywhere. Okay? We are at very low funding rates, 5-8%. Well, for those who have a bit of history, if we go back a bit, you will see here, we were in yellow, in orange, and so on. These are euphoria levels of bull run phases. Okay? You see that it's been a long time since we've been in these levels, and that here, we are at really green and blue levels, as we could have been, for example, here in February and so on, precisely in the fear phases we could have had in the past. Here, regarding cost basis distribution, I wanted to show you this. Here, we had a large distribution zone. Okay? If we go back a bit in the past, you will see what could have happened here. You see, these were large distribution zones just before the big capitulation. Here, you see that it's a bit red, so it's less powerful than what we could have had as distribution here, but it's still a significant distribution. And if we zoom in here to adjust the scale, well, you see that there has been quite a bit of distribution. And if we go to the short term, okay, you see that there has been no red line here. This means that here, at this low point, we haven't had people who have massively bought the bottom. Okay, there was a rebound, but presumably, we are not ready to turn around. Same, we will continue to look, but again, always our principle of supply and demand here on the position of long-term holders. Long-term holders are still selling. Okay? So, we have traditional finance selling, we have whales selling, we have long-term holders selling, we have Bitcoin continuing to arrive on exchange platforms. Okay? So, the curve is going up, which means that Bitcoins are arriving on exchange platforms little by little. And you know that when they arrive on exchange platforms, it's to be sold. Quite simply, when you have Bitcoins stored on a Ledger key, on a Trezor, or I don't know what, on a hardware wallet, well, when you send them to Binance, it's not to store them there, it's to sell them. Okay? Now, I know you can sell via the Ledger Live application and so on, but in any case, when you sell via Ledger Live, your Bitcoins leave your cold wallet to go to a partner exchange of Ledger and then be sold, okay? And the result, so the USDT or USDC, will return to your Ledger. So, in any case, here we have precisely this exchange net position, exchange net position change, pardon, which is rather, rather bearish. Okay, this indicates that we are rather oriented downwards. Regarding realized profits and losses. You see that we are a bit in realized losses, but much less than what we could have been precisely in the big bottom phases we could have had in the past. And again, here it was, it was, well, it was a first where we went quite low, here too. So, I am waiting for this famous capitulation zone. I think we are, it's possible to reach it. We could have a reset of this famous, of this famous indicator, the Cell Side Risk Ratio, where we would have a decrease in this indicator on this famous red line. So, here we are rather in overbought zones, rather here in oversold zones. You see that this is what marked our local bottoms in the past. So, there you go, we have a bit of, we have quite a few indicators that invite us to be cautious. So, I remain, I remain oriented bearish for the moment. I think we will have a second bearish leg. I am still targeting the same zone, which is between 93,000 and 96,000 dollars. It's not guaranteed we will reach it. In any case, we will need to be reactive. That's a bit of the added value of our investment circle. So, I will finish on this. Our investment circle, which is open to everyone, beginners as well as experienced, and so on. We cover all the basic concepts. We have a technical analysis training that is offered when you subscribe. So, we train you so that you are as capable as possible of understanding the movements happening in financial markets. And, and so, obviously, the analyses I publish, I publish them very regularly, and I publish them, well, with every Bitcoin volatility movement, so that you can know what I am doing. I share my real-time exposure on the markets, when I buy, when I sell, and so on. So, I hope you enjoyed this content. Well, if so, don't hesitate to let us know and to join us in the investment circle if you wish. And well, otherwise, we will see you on YouTube for free, to deliver maximum value and help you in this complicated ocean that can be the world of cryptocurrency. There you go, thank you.