Transcription
Hey everybody, Kimosi here giving the update since we've been continuing to fall here. Uh, I took the liberty of measuring this leg and matching it to this leg. Now, I am in log scale. In linear scale, this doesn't look at all, um, the same. But we're coming to an area where this leg would match. Unfortunately, the way that these usually play out, it's often in this entire pocket is where the leg still matches. So, it's not like you just buy the dip, unless if you get all the way down to the previous lows, then your invalidation becomes the 1.618 if you do have a a tolerance for that much risk.
But don't, like I said in the previous video, don't go calling bottoms before you bottom. There's no bottom to speak of, especially on a daily chart. Here we are in the 1-day chart and you have a series of lower lows, lower highs. Now, this really has to push up still above 109 to give you a higher high close. So, no bounce to speak of just yet on the daily.
If you really zoom in here and you want to argue for a potential higher high, you would have to close above 97. That's more of a 4-hour higher high and then you try to buy the higher low. Same thing that we do all the time. Um, this is your higher high. You should buy higher lows at previous support. If that support fails, then it's at previous support down here. So, we'll see if we end up doing a very, very large range here or if we're just going to capitulate and and run the run the table, if you will, in in reverse from what that uh, what was his name? Josh, Josh man or something like that on Twitter was saying, uh, run the table in reverse. We are coming back to his 84,000 target. So, maybe we close a daily at that 84,000 and then he can run the table from there. Um, but you have a downtrend. This is definitely a downtrend and it's seemingly picking up momentum. So, we will see.
Even on the lower time frames, it doesn't look great, but I am pointing out the potential for coming to an area of interest at the 1:1 Fibonacci extension for matching those legs. And if a trade setup is to play out of there, you don't necessarily have to call bottoms and rush into positions here. Because often what will happen is you'll you'll have some choppy sideways before it goes up. And if this leg is matching this leg, what I'm kind of proposing is is you're going to have this leg repeat and then a revisit of the lows. So, this will give you a leg that kind of moves up, maybe from current area, maybe from a little lower, but that'll be your signal to say, "Hey, something different is happening than this straight down move." Uh, until that happens, you really don't you don't want to keep buying a falling knife that keeps falling. Um, so once this happens, look for a retrace and try to buy the higher low. But you need a leg that's doing something different than this. So far, the behavior is down and aggressively down at that.
If we zoom into this chart here on the daily, this pattern just looks like it's going to keep repeating down like that and give you a little bounce and then continue down and then another bounce and then complete somewhere down at like 65,000. Um, that's certainly in the cards. So, that is a sell setup. If you want to short it, just match one of these legs and say, there you go. There's a sell setup because that's your trend. Lower low, that's where your lower high would be. So, if you're in the market for shorting, that's where you would look for a sell. Somewhere around 93,000 at this point. It gets down a little lower than 91,000 would be your sell setup. It all depends on how far the trend is going. Um, but if you break above the sell setup, you invalidate your sell setup by getting up above, say, 97. That invalidates those sell setups and you're doing something different. Then your trend is trying to reverse or trying to do something different.
So let's zoom into the 4-hour chart and see what we're seeing. 4-hour chart still in a downtrend coming, like I said, to that 1:1 Fibonacci extension, 85,946. Um, won't be an exact number, most likely. You're likely to have some kind of algorithm find something. But here on the 4-hour is where things kind of become interesting from a trading perspective from my end to potentially go long here. You have yourself a little accumulation range and now you've sprung the lows. Um, so that is a potential. If you get back inside of this consolidation, you target the upper liquidity and then maybe you're getting a 4-hour higher high and then you buy the the higher low back at previous support. So, if this does close somewhere around 96 to 98, your support becomes 88 and then push up for next liquidity and you can start yourself an uptrend. Until then, you don't have an uptrend. You can see what happened with this little accumulation range. You stayed below it. You never got back inside of the consolidation. So, that was a redistribution into a markdown again into a potential accumulation. Now, the volume profile doesn't quite look right to me. You definitely have a larger spike here, which suggests the breakdown is real. Um, and you'd have closures below, which is leading you to say the breakout is real. You may backtest this at 88,000 and push down again. But if you start closing 4-hour candles back inside of that consolidation above 88.6, then that says, hey, you may be targeting upper liquidity. Then you get your higher high close. So that's certainly something to watch for here on the 4-hour chart.
Do we have a completion of some kind of pattern? Not really. And I see this matching that. So there's your ABC down. Let's mark it off. This is kind of an ABC down. So you may just continue this chopping sideways and staying underneath that and resume this leg down to say 79. And then the charts really look like crap. Not impossible. So wait for your uptrend to start.
Zoom down to the 1-hour chart here. Again, this is just zoomed into that potential accumulation range. Um, had some people that were calling bottoms on this leg up and then there's some people that also said this is not what you want to see for a bottom because it looks like an ABC and then price came down, broke the low and then made this move up here and said that's what you want to see for a bottom because it looks more like an impulse than a three-wave or Elliot wave. However, if you were to really look at it and look at the trend, it's just ABC in a downtrend. You're matching those legs. The trend is that much lower. Your trend ended up being that much lower, giving you additional selling. So, the trend is very much intact even on a on a 1-hour. So, we may be popping that. And we're coming to an area. I think we probably have divergences going on. See if I have an RSI on this. Yeah, I got a bunch of crap on this. Yep, you got a 1-hour divergence. Your volatility is spiking. Your stochastic momentum, you're showing a bullish divergence on that as well here on the 1-hour. So maybe sometime soon you're going to get a potential uptrend.
Now to trade the uptrend, wait for a higher high, buy the higher low. Right there, that blue line is the daily open. I always have that on my chart because you can take trades right off of that quite often. So that might be your buy setup. The previous support at 8, well, roughly 86,000 would be the buy. If this makes a higher high, buy the higher low at 86. Maybe it stays above the daily open, but often in in Asian session and in London session, they will play around the daily open. So they'll grab liquidity and they'll take the liquidity below the daily open at previous support might be the the trade. So wait for a reversal before expecting a reversal. This thing will just keep moving down because people want to call bottoms. There's no bottom until you do something different. This has not done anything different. I don't care how deeply this comes. I don't care if my legs match. Like I have a trade setup that says this is where you should look for an entry. That doesn't mean enter blindly. Like just because on the daily it's the 1:1 Fibonacci extension of the matching leg that I'm looking at and have been looking at for months now, that doesn't mean that I just jump into a trade because it's at that level because my invalidation unfortunately is like 72,000. So, I'm I'm not going to I'm not going to set a stop loss some $15,000 away and wear that downside when I can just manage risk locally here by getting something different than a downtrend.
If you get an a slight uptrend, hey, you've got a place to place a stop-loss and say, "Hey, this is starting an uptrend. Now, I can trade to the upside potentially." And if I get stopped out then look for lower targets, look for lower liquidity. And that goes the same for say Elliot wave traders. You can trade this as 1 2 3 4 5 because one and three do equal and then you have an extended fifth for an ending diagonal which pushes for maximum liquidity. Yeah, maybe that's five waves, but you don't have any confirmation of it reversing. So, for all, you know, this is one, two, one, two, three, little choppy four, five, and it's just going to continue. So, let it show you something different up here. This showed you something different and it came down and stopped you out. Get out of the trade. Down it goes right here. I think you grabbed liquidity right there. There was a trade to be had there. Popped up, stopped you out because it was going for the next liquidity. It did that. Once it grabbed that liquidity, broke up. You break below that, you're going for whatever the next liquidity is. And then when you reach an area that doesn't have any visible liquidity, you're going for capitulation. So this chart can capitulate. It can they can continue pushing this down until they hit somebody's order that just flushes this price down. So, you don't need to hold a position just because it's gone down so far. And you don't need to necessarily hold a position just because you'll get out on a bounce. Uh, maybe it bounces, maybe it doesn't. I'm not saying sell your stack here. I'm saying wait to see what type of rebound comes out of it and then act accordingly. If you're on leverage trying to buy this as it's going down, that's just adding to a bad trade and you're just looking to get wrecked. You got to take the small loss with your stop-loss and hold for the big wins. So, I know it's easier said than done. Um, but once you've been in the game for a long time, you get accustomed to it. You take the small loss, be like, I'll get it on the next one. We'll look for a trade setup.
We're coming to an area of potential opportunity, maybe maximum opportunity. And if the one Fibonacci extension um leg matches and we get something different out of here, the target is roughly 109 to 110. Probably this liquidity up here, but you definitely want to look at this liquidity up to 97. That's definitely a liquidity pocket. I would be cautious to this leg up here repeating from this area. So if it kind of extends out and takes its sweet time, you know, kind of acts just like this one, that'll end up being a sell setup. And then you repeat that leg from all-time high. So then if this does end up closing a higher high, buy the higher low, your stop loss goes at those lows or slightly below it if you're afraid to get wicked out. Uh, personally, the way I do it, I just get stopped out and then look for re-entry if it if it was just a stop hunt and I'll just re-enter. No big deal. And then look to get a 4-hour higher high and then try to buy a 4-hour higher low and then hopefully you get a daily higher high close out of this thing. So, hope that's helpful. I hope you take the uh, the advice and and hopefully maximize something that could come right out of this very area or if it comes from lower, if the opportunity comes from lower, you know how to spot it. Look on the time frame that you're trading and wait for a higher high close because it's a change in behavior and then ride it up.
Or if you want to short this thing, you look for the short opportunities and the short opportunities would be waiting for this to redistribute here and your sell setup would be at 88. If this takes a while over here, kind of lasts maybe halfway through the weekend, you may get a weekend drop and your sell setup will be at 88. But you can follow along on Slice. Um, the trade setups that I'm uh trying to provide, there haven't been as many lately because we've just been kind of choppy and then sell setups haven't been great. But I have been identifying sell setups when I see them. Um, but yeah, join us on Slice. We should have a discount code coming out that should be active today and it should be active for one week to get 90% off the uh subscription to to give it a try. So, come on and give it a try. Great discount for Black Friday. Come check us out. And until then, keep them stops tight so you can have a good night.