Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Saturday, October 4th brief, it is 9:53 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, liquidations. We will look at what the Wells are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had a perfect recovery on the FVG. So we see right here, we had a recovery at the time of the video, we were uh, let's see, we were around here, I believe. There, we were here and so I told you there was a probability that we would bounce in the H4 FVG and then we could move on. It was risky to try a long anyway because we had quite a few liquidations and quite a few longs that had opened, but there, we see that the FVG did its job and we have pretty much the same scenario currently. We see that we are on a break of structure right here. And therefore, we have an FVG also between $120,500. So yes, perfectly $500 and $12,140. So logically, we should be able to come back to target this FVG and then have a rebound. So we will look at lower time frames, if we have a scenario like this, it could be interesting. I think we can head towards an ATH in the coming days. So maybe not this weekend, but it could range a bit this weekend to then target an ATH at the beginning of next week. It is very likely that we will do it given that quite a few shorts have reopened. And therefore, logically, we have accumulations of liquidity around $124,500, and so it would be logical to target them. And if we target this FVG between $12,140 and $120,500, it could be really interesting to open a long. Now, we will really need confirmations to open this long because, we are starting to be at a top and it is likely that we will have a retracement before reaching an ATH to trap quite a few people. So that means having a real retracement to then target an ATH, which is not improbable. In terms of economic news, next week, be careful, we might have quite a few movements. Notably on Wednesday at 9 PM, we will have the Fed minutes, the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. So clearly, expect movement at 9 PM on Wednesday. We will also have a speech from Powell on Thursday at 2:30 PM. So same thing, we might have quite a few movements. We will also have the weekly jobless claims at 2:30 PM. So again, this could move quite a bit. So between these two news items, be very careful because they arrive at the same time but are completely different. So be careful, we might move quite a bit on Thursday at 2:30 PM. On Friday, we will have non-farm payrolls. Same thing, it might move quite a bit, but we will especially have the unemployment rate. So again, this could move quite a bit in terms of the dollar and therefore on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting. In terms of crypto bubble, what we see is that we have shitcoins coming back from the dead, notably Floki, Bonk, etc. So in general, when you have the when you start to have Floki, Bonk, Pengu starting to appear in the top, in the top cryptos of the day, be very careful because generally when shitcoins regain color and altcoins are in the red, we are often at a top. So, I'm just saying, but it is likely that we are close to a top. So that means be careful if it makes an ATH, it could simply be a top on altcoins. And then, we will have performances on shitcoins and then it could fall. So be careful about that, but for now I remain bullish even if it is the only element that indicates that we are close to a top, it is in terms of cycles. We often have Bitcoin, Ethereum, Alts and then Shitcoins. And here, we clearly see that shitcoins are back, which is quite surprising. In terms of funding, open interest, what we see is that we have an increase in open interest right here with a decrease in funding. Which means that here the majority of the positions that are open were shorts. So logically, we still have liquidity to target above. On the other hand, be very careful, we have had quite a few long accumulations here and all along, all the long liquidations that were to be taken have never been taken. So you need to keep that in mind. If we zoom out a bit and put ourselves in 30 minutes for example, we clearly see a huge increase in open interest with the price. So that means that logically there is very little divergence between the price and the open interest. So that means that the majority of the positions that are open are longs and so be careful, that means that many stop losses are here, many are here, many are here. And therefore, when we have a dump, even if we go up very quickly, the dump could be even faster. So be careful about that because it is really, well, it is blatant on the open interest. There are a lot of longs open. In terms of liquidations, what we see is that we have large clusters to be taken below around $118,000. So which is rather interesting given that it is quite colossal. We are in 48 hours and the cluster is enormous. So be careful. Personally, I would not take the H4 long because I find it really risky in terms of liquidations. We see that there is really a lot to take below and it could simply cause a cascade of liquidations. We dump completely. and and simply, that's what's called a long squeeze. So we target all the liquidity at once on a single wick. So be very careful about that. In terms of what the Wells are doing, the Wells are still accumulating. We see that there are zero sales from the Wells. We have some small sales from the micro Wells. We even see that they are the ones driving the market, almost, since there is almost no divergence between what the micro Wells are doing and the market. Currently, we see that retail is selling. So clearly, we don't necessarily have any negative elements on this. So I remain bullish for now. On the other hand, be very careful if a setup appears on the time frame, we can go much lower and we know that there is a lot of liquidity to be taken below. So be careful about that. The open interest is very high. If we look historically at this, I will switch to H1. We will look historically at where open interest becomes very high. And we clearly see that we are almost at a top. We are really at a top. We are almost at the ATH. The last time we had this was here. Here also, we had a top. Here, we had a top on the open interest, same thing. So be very careful about that. We could have a very violent retracement before making an ATH. So that means we are not safe from having a movement like this in which we then come back to target an ATH. So technically, if we were to take a pessimistic scenario in which we really liquidate everyone, it would be to target at least $116,330 to $114,64. I'm not saying we will reach them, I'm just saying if we were to have a pessimistic scenario in which we do a real liquidity grab and then to be able to rebound, it would be interesting to do this kind of movement given that it represents about a 50% retracement of the movement. We also have an FVG in there and we see that it is also a key zone. We are in a zone that is really defended when we arrive in it. We see that we can simply draw it every time we arrive in this zone. We always have a rejection. So whether in one direction or the other. So clearly, this is a zone in which we could very well rebound right here. Now, I don't think we will go there now, but it is likely that we will have a retracement in this zone if we really start to have a cascade of liquidations and long closures and more spot sales. So be very careful about that. So for now, I remain bullish. I assume that we have a scenario in which we should rebound in this H4 FVG right here. We should then go and make an ATH. Now, if this FVG were not to hold, clearly, if we don't do that, logically it would mean that we should at least do something like this in which we target $115,000 and then, we can have a rebound. Now, there, I'm giving you my plan. The question now is whether I will open a long or not if we target this zone. For now, I seriously doubt it given the data, I'm not necessarily interested in opening a long at a top. But but there. In any case, I hope this video pleased you. You have my opinion. I hope you will give me yours in the comments because it interests me. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves.