Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for dipping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be discussing the fear and greed index.
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Again, I'm making this video on November 10th, so my apologies if things have changed a lot since when you see this video and when it's recorded. But as of today, the price of Bitcoin, well, Bitcoin dominance is below 60%. That should go higher, but Bitcoin USD is currently around 105K.
Now, what's interesting is that Bitcoin has continued to make higher highs, right, from March 2024 into January 2025 and August 2025. But Bitcoin's fear and greed index put in, I mean, it went high in March, but it put in its high back in November of 2024, and it's been putting in lower highs ever since. So, there's been some type of divergence, right? We saw the same thing in 2021. We saw some similar stuff happen in 2019, although that was not a divergence. I guess it was more so just lower highs in price and lower highs in the fear and greed. But ultimately, it kind of leads down to a reset at lower levels from where then we can sort of build off of.
Again, if you look at a like a 30-day moving average of the fear and greed index, it actually shows you that we're getting back down to some of these like lower levels where historically it bounced. It's kind of like the same idea that normally Bitcoin finds a low around the time of the death cross, assuming the cycle's not over, right? Like if the cycle's over, you can still have a bounce, but it would lead to a lower high. Um, but a lot of times, right, around those death crosses, you get you get bounces in the market.
What's interesting is that everything seems to be lining up to be, you know, kind of setting up for that same scenario where you have the death cross coming up. You have the, and we talked about this not too long ago. Um, but you have the weekly RSI at a at a fairly critical level, right? Like the weekly RSI is getting down to a critical level where it's found support in the past, but then also the fear and greed index, the 30-day moving average of it is is getting pretty close to to some of these more fearful levels.
Now, in a bare market, you would expect the 30-day estimate of the fear and greed index to go really stay below 30 for a while, right? And go all the way down to maybe 10, 15 or something. Um, you can see that's what's happened in the last couple of bare markets. Uh, and even in 2019 where you start to get the 30-day moving average of the fear index down between 10 and 20. Um, we're not there right now, but it is something to sort of keep an eye on for.
Now when you look at it color-coded, what you'll notice, and if you just isolate um the higher risk times right above 80, you can see that at these local tops, that's when there was some euphoria, but this has not played out like 2021 or 2020 where you had a ton of euphoria, and that's what ultimately led to altcoins starting to outperform.
Now if you just isolate say, you know, 70 all the way up to 100, you can see how in 2019 there is a little bit of of euphoria, but not not really still left something to be desired, and ultimately we ended up having to go to lower rates and and the end of quantitative tightening, and then eventually we got a much bigger rally, but it it took uh, you know, this consolidation period here. So, you could have a scenario where the consolidation period after some euphoria, and maybe maybe we get some more um before the year is out, just ends up being sort of a short downturn in 2026 followed by renewed interest, kind of leaving leading out of that.
The other thing to remember is that historically buying Bitcoin whenever it goes to you know below 30 on the fear and greed index tends to work out pretty well as long as you have a long enough time horizon. If you go if you buy it below 20, again, it it tends to work out pretty well as long as you have enough a strong enough or a long enough time horizon. So, just something to think about.
Going back to the raw values, if you look at like the 90-day SMA of it, you can see that it's still at like 45, and historically it's found support at around 40. So, I would keep an eye on that because we are getting pretty close to those levels. And so if Bitcoin is going to bounce from the weekly RSI of 44 and a fear and greed index that's getting close to support, and the death cross is coming up, right, like it should do it relatively soon. And failure to do so would be confirmation that we've already started sort of the bare market going into 2026.
So again, hope for the best, plan for the worst. Hopefully we can see a bounce here and and liquidity can flow back to Bitcoin. That's what I'm hoping for. Um, and and and hoping that Bitcoin dominance goes higher. I know this is a crazy idea, guys, but you know what? If instead of throwing our money away on random meme coins and and enriching the founders of those coins that pretend like they're your best friends on Twitter, what if instead of doing that, we just focus on what matters? And what matters is Bitcoin.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.