Transcription
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Seriously, it's over. The last two games were the most exciting. On one side was the real-life version of "Peace Under Heaven," and the other was "007 Days of Thunder." In the game "Peace Under Heaven," we saw several very strong players emerge. Among them, the strongest was Amst. He truly embodied the "rock-paper-scissors" strategy, winning a round with his ten books and successfully defeating Ah Zeng Jian An.
Additionally, two other prominent players were Ah Lu and Yun Yi Long. In the previous episode, which was playing "Throw the Beautiful Abalone," everyone else had finished. Only he remained, and he didn't even need to throw the sandbag; he directly advanced. [Laughter] This matter is truly unbelievable, you can't not believe it. It's really feng shui. [Laughter]
Furthermore, there's another person worth paying attention to, and that's Ah Lai. We've known him since we were young. You'll see him every few episodes. And who else? Ah Zai, while playing "Peace Under Heaven," accidentally dropped the key to the last fleet. These few people are actually the four most memorable in the second game. Of course, based on their performance in the second-to-last round, all eight people entered the final game.
Who were they? Of course, there was Ah Dong, Ah Dong Fang Sheng, Ji Yi, and Lith's Ah Tong, and Yenny. We were all a bit scared. If you were one of the contestants, who would you take down first? [Laughter] The first person I would consider taking down is Ah Zai and Ah Ton, the sharpest ones. After that, I believe no one would dare to play rock-paper-scissors with them again. And the last one, the most memorable person, is Ah Zai, because he threw the last round. Of course, the fact that Ah Zai was the first to be shot and killed is very sad. It's a collective memory from the show. Coupled with his brilliance in the previous episode, Ah Tou's death left no suspense.
Next, Ah Dong Fang Sheng shot and killed Lu, and Lu shot and killed Ah Yu. Finally, only Ji Yi and two girls remained, which means Lawet was tough. And because they were both women, Ah Ji Yi was doomed. In the end, all the men were eliminated, leaving only Ah Tong and Yenny, who became the sole survivor, winning the competition. This outcome perfectly aligns with the concept we want to discuss in this episode: the invisible hand of the shooter. It refers to how, in a multi-person environment, the winner is not necessarily the strongest, but the one who is immediately attacked by others. Ah Tong and Yenny were in the best position. They were not the strongest, not the most eye-catching, and not the most threatening.
Okay, next, we will discuss in detail the two theories of this episode: the shooter and their cowardly nature. Let's break it down. First, let's talk about the problem. In a multi-person competitive environment, why is the strongest person most likely to die? In our impression, aren't the strongest people usually the ones who win? If three people stand there pointing guns at each other, wouldn't the most accurate shooter have the highest survival rate? Not really. Although we don't have guns in the real world, the act of being a shooter is not unfamiliar to us. In school, the most outstanding students in your class might be popular, but they are easily targeted by classmates. In the workplace, the most capable and prominent person, the one the boss likes the most, is often disliked by others.
Today, I want to discuss with everyone: as individuals, how should we play this game well? How can we, with timing and strategy, become the ultimate winner? We need to start from the initial model of this theory. There are three shooters, A, B, and Ah C, with survival rates of 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. These people hate each other, there's no room for negotiation, and no possibility of forming an alliance to eliminate the other. They also shoot simultaneously, and everyone knows each other's shooting accuracy. Who has a greater chance of surviving? It's Ah C, the weakest shooter. Let's analyze each shooter's best strategy. For Ah A, he has the best shooting accuracy. So, who is his biggest threat? It's B. Ah C poses no threat to himself; his shooting accuracy is worse than Ah C's, right? And A knows that if he shoots C first, then B will definitely eliminate him first. Similarly, for B, Ah A will be his first target because he is the strongest. It's obvious that if Ah A is eliminated, and if there's another round, his chances of winning against Ah C will be higher. And if he shoots first and eliminates Ah C, even if he reaches the next round, he will still have to face A, and when facing A, he will be at a disadvantage. He himself is also at a disadvantage. So, B's best strategy is to shoot first. The above are the strategies that two rational strong individuals would choose. The final outcome is that Ah A and Ah B shoot each other, and no one shoots Ah C. So, what will Ah C do? Ah C has the advantage of acting later. After Ah A and Ah B finish their exchange, there will only be two possible outcomes: either one dies and one is injured, or both die. If both die, that's the best outcome, right? No need to shoot, and he wins. But even if one is injured, Ah C can take advantage of his weakened state and shoot him.
Alright, let's look at the probabilities. These are probabilities derived from extensive mathematical modeling. Ah A's survival rate is around 10%, B's is 20%, and Ah C's chance of survival is close to 100%. Here, there's a point that needs to be clarified with everyone. When we discuss, we must not ignore the concept of "strategy." It doesn't tell you that something will definitely happen or that this is the definite outcome. Many models, including the shooter game we are discussing, are not foolproof. They tell you that under certain premises and with clear information, we can predict how the participants will act and what their probabilities are. The model provided by the theory actually points to the direction where it is most likely to occur, not that it will definitely happen, and not that it is their destiny. Therefore, we say that Ah C's survival rate is the highest, close to 100%, but it doesn't mean he will always be the winner. And we say that the strongest are easily targeted, but it doesn't mean they will inevitably lose. In this model, Ah C is not the strongest due to his skill or shooting accuracy, but because no one shoots him first, thus gaining a low-threat advantage. The stronger the person, the more easily they are targeted. The weaker the person, the more they are overlooked, and being overlooked increases their survival rate. In fact, it's the "fisherman benefits from the struggle." In this game, your skill is not the most important determining factor; it depends on your position. This matter is worth discussing because it helps us see structural problems and even strategize about who is easily targeted in this game. It also helps us understand our own position and choose a strategy that can improve our chances.
For Ah A, the most accurate shooter, how can he improve his winning rate? First, you need an objective understanding: because you are the strongest, everyone will shoot you first. So, when you enter the game, you need to imply that you are not that strong. For example, pretend to be a one-armed person, say you don't have enough bullets, or at home, ask your wife to shoot you in the eye, then pretend to be blind. [Laughter] When you come out with a gun, in short, you need to reduce the immediate threat to the opponent. Ah B and Ah C might feel no need to shoot you first. That is to say, if A can reduce his sense of threat in any way, he will have a chance to increase his survival rate.
The second strategy is to create a common enemy. Although A, B, and C hate each other and cannot cooperate, you can divert attention. You can sow discord between B and C. For example, before you die, I want to tell you something: I saw Big Brother B go to your house and your wife that day. You're being cuckolded. Or, you learn the skill of spitting a piece of gravel from a dog's tooth, so that B feels that Ah C is shooting himself. In short, create friction between B and C. This moment can buy A survival space. Therefore, in this game, for the strongest person to improve their chances, it's not about relying on their hard power, but on psychological warfare.
How can Big Brother B improve his survival rate? B's situation is even more difficult. Ah A will definitely shoot him, and Ah C will definitely wait for himself and Ah A to shoot each other. So, for B, the best strategy is to transform from the second threat to the third threat. In fact, it's the same as what Ah A does. It's just a matter of thinking. Yes, I'm tired of fighting. I want to retire from the arena. I don't want to fight with you anymore. I have over a hundred children and over three hundred wives at home to take care of. I don't want to shoot. I want to stand still! Two big brothers, please spare me. In short, you need to reduce A's focus on yourself. Similarly, Ah B can also manipulate the relationship between A and Ah C, making Ah A believe that Ah C is more dangerous. For example, he can walk around provocatively towards Ah C, making A mistakenly believe that B and Ah C might cooperate. In such a situation, A might shoot first, targeting Ah C first, because he doesn't know if Ah C and B have any collusion or what schemes Ah C might have. Once Ah A's idea of shooting himself first wavers, B's survival rate will increase.
Now let's see how the weakest, Ah C, can further improve his chances. You already have the advantage of being non-threatening, right? But you still have the opportunity to further improve your chances of winning. The first strategy is to definitely, definitely, definitely maintain the advantage of always being the last target. For example, absolutely do not shoot randomly in the first round. The quieter you are, the safer you are. You have to wait until A and B...
After the gunfight ended, then go and reinforce. Don't rush, don't snatch. You have to wait for A and B to wear each other down. The more you do, the more likely you are to win. Let's shift our gaze back to the last two rounds of the Squid Game. Why do I mention the second to last round, "Peace Under Heaven"? Because in the last game of this round, everyone's perception of you, meaning even though the contestants don't know what the final game is, there's one thing you can definitely deduce: it will definitely be a game where people eliminate each other. So, it's highly likely to be a "gunner" game, meaning a few people fighting for the last spot of survival. Therefore, the second to last round is very crucial. Besides thinking of ways to win, you also need to think of ways to hide yourself and disguise yourself, at least to avoid becoming a target. So, this gunner game actually didn't start in the last round of "Seven Days of Bullets"; it already began in the previous round, "Peace Under Heaven." In this round, Ah Ji and Ah Hong did very well. They were not disappointing and not eye-catching. But because Ah Ji was the target, he was bound to be eye-catching, and the outcome decided by the ball game would definitely remember him. So, if there was a choice, meaning speaking with hindsight, absolutely do not play these two roles. And in this game, what did those two girls do? There's a detail, I don't know if everyone noticed. To protect the two girls, Yanny was chosen to hold the shield and block the balls. But all the team members said not to make a meaningless sacrifice. The reinforcements opened up for her, and she was told to hold the shield and stand in the corner to protect herself, which is enough. And you don't need to protect those behind? Well, this is like giving a gift to Ah. In the entire competition, not only did she not show her ability, but she was also perceived as useless, a protected object. And from [laughter] Tang, who was observing, it was as if he disappeared from the entire game. Of course, they might not have thought of these things at the time, but we look back and analyze them afterwards. Why did Ah and Ah Ju win in the end? The reason is actually in these details. They were almost invisible in the previous game. And being the only girls, they slowly formed a low-threat presence. So, when it came to the last round of bullets, Yanny would definitely not be the first person everyone would try to eliminate. Everyone would prioritize eliminating the strongest person in their minds, and among them was Ah Lu, who was dangerous. Why is Tong famous? He's the King of Games, the highly anticipated King of Games. So everyone would be afraid he might win in the end. This image actually increased his risk. Being lucky throughout the entire game, for other people, for other competitors, it was a threat. So, these four gentlemen were equivalent to, as we said earlier, the A's in the gunner game. The remaining B's were Ah Dongfang Xing and Ji Yi. But their goal was to take them down. So, in the end, it was the mutual destruction between A and B, leaving the two girls. Of course, you can say anything after watching the ending, right? [Laughter] Indeed, even if the winner was anyone, I should be able to prove why they won with other theories. [Laughter] This point must be acknowledged, but why do I still want to analyze it with everyone? Because this example is a typical example. As long as you have watched this video, or if you want to watch it later, you will be able to understand what this "gunner game" theory is talking about. In fact, there are no such examples in history. For example, during the Three Kingdoms period, we always talk about Wei and Shu, right? That's correct. It also formed a "gunner" situation. In the Three Kingdoms, their best strategy was to attack the strongest opponent first. For Shu and Wu, Wei was their primary target. Cao Cao, after eliminating Zhang Lao, did not advance further, mainly because he feared being attacked from behind. And he has always been executing the same strategy: maintaining peace or an alliance with Wu, and then competing with Wei for the Central Plains to restore the Han. Shu and Wu, apart from some minor skirmishes, basically did not actively attack Wei. But after Ling Zhi's defeat, Xuan took over Shangyang in Wei. This place was a transportation hub. Cao Cao's soldiers had to pass through this place every day. You took it back, but from then on, you had to expend a lot of energy to resist the pressure from Wei. In fact, if I were from Shu, I would be very happy. Right, you deal with the tiger, and I'll go home and take a nap. So, from then on, Wu was even more aggressive than before. In this battle, Wu had the advantage, but in fact, it broke the balance of the gunner game. Originally, Wei did not dare to make a move. Now, Wu and Wei are both testing each other's strength. This creates an opportunity. Of course, things are not as simple as you think. There's also Ma Ying, and behind Ma Ying, there are hunters. So, in the end, Shu and Wei were just stepping stones. The descendants of Sima eventually unified the country and established the Western Jin. This outcome actually reflects a core conclusion of the gunner game. If one side overextends or a balance is broken, the outcome of the situation will ultimately change. Therefore, for the strongest, the two weaker parties are your optimal solution. For the middle and weaker parties, forming an alliance to fight against the strong is the optimal solution. All three are worse off if they attack and expand excessively, disrupting the original situation. For example, expanding one's territory leads to greater risk. This will also lead to the strong having an opportunity to eliminate them through this gap. This strategy is not only applicable to the Three Kingdoms period; we can also apply it to modern business, politics, and even interpersonal relationships. Well, everyone knows, I don't really like to brag. Including when I talk to everyone, I'm not teaching you how to harm others. I hope everyone can turn it into a defensive skill. You need to know what kind of opponent you might encounter, or how the opponent might treat you. Similarly, understanding the opponent, I don't hope everyone uses it in the workplace to eliminate others and step on their shoulders to climb up. We are purely looking at it from an academic perspective, analyzing roles A, B, and C. That is, if you are one of them, what should you do? What is the optimal solution for you, or what will improve your chances of winning? We are purely looking at it from this perspective. For example, if you are A, meaning you are the strong one, the most accurate gunner, what should you do in the workplace? First, the first step is to know yourself. At the same time, it means you are dangerous, or you can identify people in your circle, in your office who belong to A. What are their characteristics? Usually, they are highly capable, educated, perform relatively stably, stand out, become the focus everywhere, look good, have a good figure, are good at their jobs, and even have some skills in combat. In the gunner game, you will definitely be the first person targeted. You must have this awareness. Don't think you are not a threat to others. No, others will call you what? [Laughter] Even if you are not, others will think you are, right? So, how should A behave? First, don't show off your strength too much. Especially in front of opponents who are inferior to you, absolutely do not do that. Of course, you have to show your ability at work, right? If you don't show your ability at work, what do you want? What do you want? As long as you are strong, it is naturally a threat to others. It's like when crabs are in a tank, they are very cute. If you put a bunch of crabs in a tank, and one of them climbs to the edge and can escape, the others below will definitely pull it back and not let it go. This is human nature. I'm not saying everyone should do this, but you need to know that others might do this. When you are strong, you are very likely to face such threats. So, if you are A, it's not about not acting, nor is it about speaking. Don't brag about your achievements, or accept it. I'm just good. I won't be inferior to others. If possible, even teach those who are inferior to you, cooperate with others, so that you can... harm, more melody. [Laughter] In short, you need to make your potential opponents feel that you are not an opponent, but their resource. You are on their side, you are helping them. Avoid making enemies. You naturally have enough enemies, you don't need to make enemies. For example, Ah, he can find CDFG to deal with you together. So, in fact, I shouldn't be so arrogant. When being scolded, yes, yes, it's my fault, I shouldn't scold people. [Laughter] This will make people who scold me unite. Everyone understands. You can keep a low profile to maintain your advantage, keep a low profile, but don't be a threat to others. At the same time, as A, you don't need to win everything. This is the biggest trap for the strong, thinking they have to act in everything and win everything. But in fact, we've talked about a book before, called "Infinite Game." Life is an infinite game. So, a truly skilled strong person knows when to retreat, when to let go, and when to let others shine. Especially when you are in a multi-person structure, the more you act, the greater your radiance, and the higher your chance of being targeted. So, what do A's need to distinguish most? It's what kind of situation you are currently in. If it's a one-on-one situation, you only have one opponent, then you don't need to care about them. You KO them, you cruelly O them. All one-on-one games, because of your strength, you will definitely win. So you have to exert effort to defeat your opponent. But once you enter a multi-person game, your high ability might become your weakness. So you have to immediately change your mindset, make yourself low-key, make others feel that you are a collaborator. The above is the best strategy for A. OK, if you are B, I am in the middle. I am not, but I am not the strongest. So, how to act? How to increase my chances of winning? This is what we call the deep layer, this layer is usually the most pitiful role. [Laughter] Saying you are strong is not as strong as A, and you are always suppressed by A. You are already upset, right? But A might also consider you a hypothetical enemy, and then you are forced into the game. You don't attack A, but A might attack you. At the same time, you might also be used by C. In the war between A and A and A and C, you might accidentally get injured. So, how should B behave? First.
The situation is similar to A. You cannot be too late. When you stand too close to A, A will feel you are a threat, and you will become its enemy. However, you also cannot be too far away. If you are targeted by C from the periphery, C will think you are the best target and will use you. For example, when C is thinking of harming A, they might use you as a stepping stone.
Therefore, for people like B, what you should do is to stay between A and C. You need to know how to appease both sides. Because if you are too strong, they will not form an alliance with you; they have no reason to form an alliance with you. So, what do you do? You can help A, playing a supporting role, like a loyal subordinate, helping A. At the same time, you need to protect them. When it's crucial, you need to step forward to help them, saying a fair word. Then, both A and C will have a chance to consider you as a half-friend. That is, even if not a friend, at least when it comes to taking action, they might not immediately think of harming you. They would harm that sarcastic one instead. After all, you have helped me before, helping me buy milk tea, or when I was in a difficult situation, helping me say a good word to my boss. In this way, you have actually created a space between A and C.
Even if A wants to attack you in the worst-case scenario, you should not be the first one to make a move. Because doing so will further confirm to A that you are aggressive, that you are dangerous, that you are a real threat. It's easy to say, but how to do it, everyone can observe and see for themselves.
What about the third type of person? If you belong to this category, what should you do? In this situation, it is actually an advantage. You have a low-threat presence. What are the common characteristics of such people? They don't have outstanding skills or resources that can be brought to bear. They are usually seen as the safest and least likely to be harmed type. It is precisely because you are this type of person, least likely to be harmed, that neither A nor B will attack you. Therefore, your advantage is not in strength, not in ability, but in the ability to act later.
And the most common mistake is inferiority complex. But remember, when you are in a one-on-one situation, that is, if you directly compete with A and B for a position or to showcase some skills, then of course you are no match for them. In this situation, you are trapped. So, don't feel inferior for now. This is your advantage. When A and B are at each other's throats, you slowly wait for them to exhaust themselves, wait for them to defeat each other, or eliminate each other, mutually consuming each other. After that, perhaps there will be a position left for you to occupy.
As a bystander, please do not react rashly. Once you stand on any side or speak carelessly, you will become a threat. This approach directly lowers your own value. Therefore, the optimal solution for you is stability, stability, and then more stability. Observe, observe, and then observe again. Speak and act. Truly act, don't make too much trouble. In fact, the theory of "playing it safe" is quite interesting. Because the mainstream world constantly encourages us to strive upwards, to shine, to be capable. But in reality, it depends on the situation. Sometimes, in certain situations, being in the safest position is actually the best. However, this does not mean that your strategy as a bystander can be taken for granted. We can use these "cold" moments to work harder, learn more, so that we are no longer in C's position. When A and B are fighting fiercely, you increase your value, promote yourself. Then, when they have both consumed each other to a certain extent, you have been promoted, and naturally, that position will be left for you. Isn't the whole thing great? I think it can be broken down and discussed.
Why don't we leave the cowardly ones for the next episode? I think we can really use this as a series to analyze each game, each round with everyone. Yes, I hope everyone enjoyed today's program. I will talk about the cowardly ones with everyone tomorrow. Goodbye.
[Music] Shoot got [Music] the perfect aim made shots land out of every he walks around like [Music] game but every eyes watching him again. Be all right but tries too hard sweats [Music] a little when the fight begins sees behind the birthday cpping [Music] so while the other spin. Life is just a showd someone they fear the strongest one get shot at first the midle one get stuck right here but the weakest kid just [Music] along singing I'm not part of where landing in three gun drama baby [Music] always stands [Music] Wait don't point at me. Says nothing plants a sea. Ly living is the place to be. Gets hit [Music] by expectations. Gets caught in complications. Sees invisible [Music] salvation he survived the situation. All life is just a showd [Music] your tets. God your fears the loudest one gets cornered first. The brave [Music] one ends up in the tears, but the quiet soul just minds snack. No threats, [Music] no heat, no reanding. And when the dust all clears, my friend, see [Music] still the last one standing. [Music] Maybe [Music] strength a shiny curse and weakness just a clever verse. If a duel, then here's the trick. Don't shoot too fast. Don't [Music] aim too quick. Let the fighters fight their fight. Keep your shadow small at night. When the smoke [Music] is gone, you fine. You never had to prove your mind. Oh, life [Music] is just a showd and everyone is over planning. But if you [Music] play the slow game, gently your feet will always keep on landing. Let it be bold and be be brave. Let them argue what's outstanding. [Music] You just whistle through the chaos baby and you'll be the last one standing. [Music] Bangangter in the sun. Three guns drawn but only one walks away when all [Music] the quiet. Never. [Music] 馬 [Music]